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Step Right Up - Everyone's A Winner: Buy Something, Buy Everything, Stocks, Bonds, Oil, Gold... Everything Is Up
"Buy stocks, buy bonds, buy oil, buy gold, buy something, buy Ambac - just close your eyes and throw your money at this market", the Primary Dealers beg you. They need to sell you stuff. They have lots of stuff to sell, at bargain basement prices. There will never again be a downtick. The bond market is so extatic about the equity melt up and the coming hyperinflation (as predicted by equities) that bond are being bought left and right as well. Everyone is buying something - no point in mentioning oil and gold: buy those too. Algos will scalp a few PIPs a few billion times today: computers have to feed their children too. Correlation across all asset classes is again one, as happens every time before the market goes up by 100%.
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Tyler, that is what has been going on for nearly 70 years. You will now see huge spikes in both directions. The primary purpose is to get people to expand the system at an exponential rate, one problem with this, humans can't supply nor demand exponentially long-term.
Buying has been the name of the game for 66+ years, now the system is unable to expand at the needed rate. What you have been witnessing since 2007 is the peak and beginning of the collapse.
But they certainly can long enough to bring the indices to challenge all time highs. As far fetched and brain dead as it seems, Tyler is right on the money. Pretty much buy anything - especially AAPL. We won't stop until we challenge those highs. Just what the market is telling us.
Blowoff top in credit creation was 2001-2007, it's over now. All you are seeing now is cycles within cycles... waves... the circle of life or in this case the circle of death.
In 20 years if you are still alive as the system continues to crumble, you will look back on these charts and go, dam I should have seen that coming.
This war was lost before the first battle even started, humans have no chance against the equation, none, nada, zip, zero, etc.
Bigger and bigger swings, there is no other lifeboat like Japan had to rest on this time.
The top is trying to suck the bottom for all they are worth... nothing like good bait to get a good fish.
Credit creation is down almost everywhere. The only exceptions are gubbermint and the Fed Res, who seem to want to borrow enough to make up for any shortfalls.
Print, print, print...and us Joes and Janes are going to be on the hook for it.
Credit creation has been negative for about a year,, even with the government running full on.
You are already on the hook, eventually all the unfunded Lemmings will need to be liquidated.
Put call ratio is .34x today. It has been this low 3 times over the last decade. In January 2010 incidentally put call was .47x.
1. Today
2. January 2004
3. March 2000
Maybe the last sucker is the the person waiting till today/tomorrow to fund their 2009 IRA contribution.
Of course I need to buy buy buy before my paper medium of exchange is worthless. Makes perfect sense
VIX is down, market is up, Banks are booming, transportations is booming.
ALL IS WELL! :)
SHOW ME THE MONEY!!!
Trend is you friend. Don't fight it.
Well, if everything is up, then $omething mu$t be down, don't you think?
YES, (I am captain obvious) the value of currency. Welcome everyone to inflation. Oh wait, there is no inflation, Bernanke cant see it, and he is shooting for 2%, so it doesnt exist.
up. up and away, in my beautiful helicopter.....
yes - only thing down is logic... sel sel sel logic... it always underperforms anyway
sel sel sel logic... it always underperforms anyway
You got that right.
Yes, SKF
Buy prison space too. Prisons running out of space - trend firmly in place since 1971. Thank you Volcker & Nixon. Trend gets worse after 1982 as folks started pouring savings into 401ks.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:US_incarceration_timeline-clean.svg
blame the war on drugs for the increase after '82.
AKA an extremely popular jobs program. Except for the inmates, that is.
Bingo! Give the man a gold star!
I know a guy that works at a nearby Federal Penitentiary and he was informed that all planned new presions have been canceled so basically the number of cells available will be frozen at todays numbers plus the cells at any prisions currently under construction. The prision where he is working at is adding another bunk to the current two per cell to deal with the freaze. It looks like bubba is going to have two play things instead of one.
they'll legalize weed to make room or just turn them into NIKE factories
The only thing not being bought that should be bought is VOLATILITY.
Theres no risk premium left in markets , i understand thats due to bailout fever , but something , somewhere , is going to give , and cause a flight into .....who knows what. I dont want to own anything , including cash.
I also admit this shell game can continue well into next year but all signs point to poo-poo land by 2012-2014. I suspect assets will have bottomed by 2015 ish : when it starts to shank just dont try to catch a falling knife.
we are just getting started...we wont peak inflation driven asset classes until the end of 2015.
check out DAG ,there just starting to run grains up
all I see is cougarlife!!!!
Be careful of hyperinflated cougars!
Step right up, everyone's a winner!
i'm just sitting back, building a huge position in srs. long term trade, but when one of the lever's breaks and the vix shoots up it should be a profitable one.
Is that sarcasm?
SRS (or any leveraged investment, like its inverse URE) will decay over time due the mathematics behind how it works. As a rule of thumb, expect perhaps 0.2% to 0.4% loss of principal per trading day every day that you hold a position in SRS (this decay-loss is on top of how the stock moves during the day). This is not something you hold onto for years or even months hoping that the market will crash. Holding it is an especially bad idea when the government is increasing the money supply.
Here's a specific example:
Dec 4, 2009: IYR = 45.44, SRS = 7.92
Feb 18, 2010: IYR = 45.42, SRS = 7.49
(The average decay is about 0.28% in this example.)
Everything is fine....
[img]http://image.guim.co.uk/Guardian/world/gallery/2007/nov/23/1/GD5416356@M...[/image]
I give. How do I post a picture?
You don't. You can't unless you are Marla, Tyler or a contributor. Let me help.
Ah. Ok. Thank you kind sir.
Does this represent "all bets to one side" or, "the deck chair scenario"? More importantly, how is the buffet?
You'll need to ask CC because I simply posted his picture on the ZH refrigerator.
But I understand the Crab Cake and lobster salad are to die for.
moved
I'M RICH! MAW, I'M RICH! I'M....flat to down for the past ten years....damn.
Keep it down and get the HECK off my lawn, now. Stupid drunk fratboy bankers.
Don't you boyz know any nice songs?
--Mr. Retail Investor
Uhhh, sell in May and go away? Anyone?
computers need vacations??? what is this, Europe?
Pretty much.
its eCStatic
Biblical proportions
In the latest attempt to get Dow 36k by Dec 31, 2010, Ben Bernanke has announced he will hold 3 press conferences per day. At these press conferences, he will reiterate his intentions of leaving rates at 0% for an extended period. At times when the markets are showing weakness (up less than 100 points at the open), you can expect a minimum of 5 press conferences that day.
In response to the announcement of the announcements, the DOW shoots straight up to 18K.
I wouldn't touch this market with a 100-foot pole. No way! Once April 15th has passed, all hell could break loose. My advice? Stay away.
Party pooper!
Now don't spoil the party you ole stick in the mud.
"There will never again be a downtick." - this market looks very much like Bernie Madoff's monthly statements - up, up, up month after month, every month. 10-12% up every time, no down months. Very much like this market....
That is SO GOOD as an observation ... everyone should be able to understand the impossibility ...
Or much like Jim Simons' RenTech which only had one month down IN IT'S ENTIRE HISTORY ? Oh and do i need to say that the loss for that one month was only 0.5%.
S&P500=x
VIX=y
x/y=1, as x approaches ∞ and y approaches 0
Gold= x/0, in terms of USD
And in other super related news, CNBC has agreed to co-carry the TVLand viewing schedule except for three hours on trading days: market open, lunch hour (Eastern) and market close. At all other times it will be Barney Fife, Lucy and (after close) infomercials for Foreheads of Steel.
A breathlessly disheveled Maria Bartiromo gasped: "Well! Really! Just look at this, er, chart! There is simply no need for further comment, is there?"
After over a year of wanting to see the market correct to reflect something resembling the economic outlook, I now feel that a more effective way to see an eventual radical overhaul of all that is wrong with our system is for the melt-up to continue for a couple of years yet. That way, the next time the markets blow it is more likely to be the big one. So, I'm going long as a hedge against what I want to see happen, and I am going to try and enjoy the ride.
watch bro, may this is the exhaustion last wave.
all indexes day and weeklys have hit my ceiling and when tht happens we've seen the top and xpect a serious turning.
Crude to hit $100 by June...
Anyone see $USD/$CDN today?
O Canada!
Our home and native land!
True patriot love in all thy sons command.
With glowing hearts we see thee rise,
The True North strong and free!
From far and wide,
O Canada, we stand on guard for thee.
God keep our land glorious and free!
O Canada, we stand on guard for thee.
O Canada, we stand on guard for thee.
Because our legislature has shown themselves so ready to solve the tough issues of our day - I refer of course to carry-on baggage fees at airlines - I have a proposal that I think should be right up their alley. I propose changing the name of our country. We will hereafter be known as "The United States of Vegas". We should begin debate on this change immediately, and that should provide ample opportunities for distraction of our contestants (oh, sorry, we are no longer citizens, we are now contestants) until the next round of our game begins during the selection of the winners from round one (formerly known as elections) come this fall.
Don't fight the fed
Don't fight the tape.
But...I'm scared my wittle wings will be pulled out. (voicce of flying bug toddler)
If everything measured in USD is up then the almighty dollar is not so almighty anymore.
Jump on SYT. It's down. Gotta make it up someday, right?
the tag on the article is absolutely correct....we are a bit past the 18 month mark of the great currency debasement which began in 8/2008....monetary policy typically has a 12-18 month lag between cause and effect....the market rises are not based upon fundamentals - just old fashioned currency destruction.
folks who have not moved into gold or silver are going to hurt....hoarding non-perishable food would also be a prudent move.
despite the m-x numbers, torrential inflation is in the works and it will be a tsunami of biblical proportions.
BA BA BOYHA JIM CRAMER
Tell me if I'm wrong about this:
Millions of American workers are socking away money in a 'well diversified' portfolio in the hopes of building a sizable (and not-so-volatile) nest egg to be able to retire in comfort (and a little luxury)...so...if all of these 'diversified' -- i repeat: diversified -- portfolios went down in the aggregate faster than an anvil thrown off the top of the Statue of Liberty, then it is safe to assume that these same diversified portfolios are taking off like a rocket?
So what is the point of 'diversification' if your portfolio is as volatile as investing in a single stock?
What is the average 401k-er and IRA-er supposed to do about asset allocation at this point?
Is diversification, asset classes, and Modern Portfolio Theory b.s.? Or is this just a 'temporary' deviation from standard diversification usefulness?
“Wide diversification is only required when investors do not understand what they are doing.”
Warren Buffet
"Diversification didn't do a thing for me - even though Sanford Bernstooge said it would."
Village Idiot
Yeah Buffet says diversification is for the ignorant, but my point is that the average joe is ignorant and therefore should diversify--but diversification (in the globalized economy) is not as easy as before.
If would be impractical for average investors to spend their time getting smart about stocks (which is oxymoronic) and investing in single stocks.
Plus, people don't realize Warren Buffet (i.e. Berkshire Hathoway) is a PRIVATE EQUITY FIRM. Buffett is not just a wise old investor. He runs a publically traded private equity shop, nothing less.
He is still projecting that value investor "buy what you know" image but dropped that as a main strategy decades ago, when it stopped producing double-digit returns. Today Buffet understands perfectly well that the only way to even have a chance in this market is to look at all the forces distorting it, and try to guess how they will converge at a particular time. Dancing with chaos, knowing when to duck.
Madness.
Mako
what do yuo think the outcome of the collapse will be?
this could be an indication of hyperinflation right as people lose all confidence in fiat money and thus would rather own stocks?
do you foresee everything crashing then?
fiat currencies and stocks with only gold surviving?
Total US monetary base = 2200 billion dollars Total US gold supply (not audited since 1973 or so) = 8300 tons EQUALS $8323/OZ 1 ton = 32000 oz. Reference US monetary base - http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/BASE
Total US gold supply (not audited since 1973 or so) = about 2,000 Tungsten-filled bars, in a room with mirrors for walls. Total Saudi gold supply = everything mined since 1973.
I'll be more than happy to buy, buy, buy, if I can just get the Fed to lend my offshore LLC all the money I can shove down the spider hole.