Sterling And Euro Fall On Economic Concerns - Gold Rises To Record £950.81 British Pounds An Ounce

Tyler Durden's picture

From Gold Core

Sterling and Euro Fall on Economic Concerns - Gold Rises to Record £950.81 British Pounds an Ounce

Gold has risen to new record nominal highs in British pounds and is consolidating just below recent record nominal highs in U.S. dollars, euros and other currencies. The ECB’s rate decision and Trichet’s ‘signals’ saw the euro fall sharply against the dollar and against gold with gold in euro terms quickly rising from €1,050/oz to over €1,065/oz.

Cross Currency Rates

The fact that these new record highs are just nominal and not more important adjusted for inflation highs is a crucial fact not acknowledged by many commentators and analysts. As ever, it is important to realize that the inflation adjusted high for gold in 1980 is over $2,400/oz.

The ECB, like the Bank of England, left interest rates near historically low levels. Trichet signaled that interest rates may rise by 25 basis points in July but that ECB monetary policy will remain extraordinarily accommodative. Markets scaled back expectations of rate rises beyond July which is bullish for gold.

Gold Bullion in Euros – 30 Days (Tick)

Trichet was also vehement in his opposition to a restructuring deal for Greek debt which may have contributed to peripheral eurozone bonds yields rising sharply again (see Bloomberg European Debt Crisis Monitor).

Monetary policies by the ECB, Bank of England, Federal Reserve and all central banks remain ultra loose despite talk of tightening.

As long as exceptionally accommodative monetary policies continue, gold and silver’s secular bull markets will almost certainly continue.

Gold Bullion in British Pounds – 30 Days (Tick)

It is only when interest rates rise above the real rate of inflation and savers, pensioners  and those dependent on fixed income are given a real return on their capital that gold and silver’s multiyear rise may come to a halt.

This will not happen in the short term as central banks know that any meaningful increase in interest rates will lead to a double dip recession and risks a sustained, long-term downturn in economic activity globally.

It could also lead to further banking crises and contagion in the already vulnerable international financial and monetary system.

Bloomberg European Debt Crisis Monitor

When interest rates do rise, central banks will have to make them very gradual. With inflation and stagflation deepening, negative real interest rates are likely to remain with us for some time which bodes well for gold (and silver).

The Titanic analogy grows increasingly apt. The various major currencies all face real challenges and are like various floors on the Titanic. The massive ship is holed and water is flowing into it, gradually affecting all floors of the boat.

Gold represents the lifeboat.

When the passengers on the various currency floors(the dollar, euro and pound floors) realize that the ship is going down there will be a scramble to get into the golden lifeboat.

Gold and silver bullion remain tiny markets vis-à-vis equity, bond and currency markets and are thus like lifeboats which can only fit so many passengers.

As the ship of the international monetary system flounders and denial is replaced by a realization that the ship is going down, investors and savers (retail and institutional) and central banks, will “pile” into gold.

Gold bullion remains owned by a tiny percentage of retail and institutional investors and there has not been any “piling into gold” yet - contrary to some sensationalist reporting. The risks posed to all fiat currencies and the real risk of an international monetary crisis will likely lead to a gold mania phase when investors and savers do actually pile into gold.

This is when gold will likely go parabolic in price as it did in the 1970’s when it rose 24 times in 9 years.

Gold’s gradual rise in recent years is in stark contrast to its parabolic rise in the 1970’s – particularly in 1972, 1973, 1974 and 1979.

Gold Bullion in US Dollars – 1971 to June 2011

Gold surged by 49.7% in 1972, 73.5% in 1973 and by 60.1% in 1974. In the final phase of the bull market in 1979, gold surged 140% in one year. Gold’s recent rise has been tame in comparison with the animal spirits remaining subdued and media coverage remaining very limited and skeptical – especially in the UK and Ireland.

As ever, it remains prudent to hope for the best monetary and economic outcomes but be prepared for less benign scenarios.


 (Bloomberg) -- Gold May Gain on Growth Outlook, Europe’s Debt, Survey Shows “Continuing jitters in markets regarding the euro-zone debt crisis and economic growth concerns globally should see gold continue to make headway,” said Mark O’Byrne, executive director of brokerage GoldCore Ltd. in Dublin. A new record “seems likely, if not next week then in the coming weeks.”

(Bloomberg) -- Gold Set for Fourth Weekly Advance on Europe Debt Crisis, Growth Concerns

(Reuters) -- PRECIOUS-Gold ticks down on dollar; debt worries support


(The Telegraph) -- The scandalous way thrift is still losing out to profligacy

(Financial Times) -- Adjust for inflation for clearer view on prices

(King World News) -- Jim Sinclair - Gold to Exceed $12,500 to Balance US Debt$12,500_to_Balance_US_Debt.html

(Before It’s News) -- The Coming Economic Hell For American Families

(ZeroHedge) Mike Krieger On The UN Power Grab

(The Burning Platform) -- QE2 - The Bernanke Chronicles

(Lars Schall) -- “The Devaluation Against Gold Is The Inflation“

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Michael's picture

You do realize we are playing out the story of the Wizzard of Oz here,

Don't You?

I'll wait for the new version of OZ coming out this summer.

bigwavedave's picture

bigwavedave: "this is not the move you've been looking for"
marketmorons: "this is not the move we've been looking for"
marketmorons: "move along"

I think I need to buy a gun's picture

bill gross "savers will get destroyed and pay for all this" the next few years.....and that criminal co worker of his el errian or whatever can go to hell for finally speaking a tiny truth and that jerkoff head on CNBC yesterday laughing that qe 3 is coming faster than you think......yes thankyou i can read between all the bs its called gold revaluation. these jerkoffs are going to be oligarchs while may neighbors lose everything

Michael's picture

Did you know there are 200,000,000 Americans living in America who know how to use a fire arm, and that there are double the amount of fire arms per persons in America?

Pegasus Muse's picture

My Sig Sauer tactical assault rifle arrives monday.  What's that -- weapon number six or eight?  And I'm under-gunned compared to most of my amigos.  Just trying to catch up.  lol 

Lndmvr's picture

And probably a few million unregistered foriegn gun holders. I try to keep up the american average.

hugovanderbubble's picture

Credit Agricole is in default....

GeneMarchbanks's picture

"Gold bullion remains owned by a tiny percentage of retail and institutional investors and there has not been any “piling into gold” yet - contrary to some sensationalist reporting. The risks posed to all fiat currencies and the real risk of an international monetary crisis will likely lead to a gold mania phase when investors and savers do actually pile into gold"


I'm looking forward to this... assuming this is so.

Michael Victory's picture

I'm looking forward to summer bullion at a nice price.

The gold boyz are talking about a summer rally. WTFK

Historical tendencies predict higher moves after the June-July time frame.

Hoping the summer of 2011 is the same. 

MrSteve's picture

"Gold represents the lifeboat" is a little misleading; gold represents the last seat in the lifeboat which is already rowing away to escape the suction of sinking vessel.

Broomer's picture

it is important to realize that the inflation adjusted high for gold in 1980 is over $2,400/oz.

Where can I get a gold price chart adjusted for inflation?

Roger Knights's picture

"Gold represents the lifeboat."

It floats like a bubble and buoys like a beachball.

hamurobby's picture

I spend an inordinate amount of time on ebay looking for bargains on gold coins. The flow comes and goes, but right now the "no reserve" auctions are becoming less common. I have noticed that this seems to front run a rise in the fiat price paid for gold. During the last two years, there have been prices and times when there was plenty of gold coins etc for sale and you could even buy gold at or below spot, but thats rare if not the case at all right now. It seems at this point, the higher the price, the more scarce gold is becoming.  just my observation.

chump666's picture

it begins...6th mth liquity crunch

Re-Discovery's picture


Like catching 5 falling knives with two hands.

ivars's picture

Gold is positioning itself for a minibubble in October-November:


YHC-FTSE's picture

5*s for this piece! Precisely what I was thinking about this morning! Particularly in regards to historical inflation adjusted prices for gold and the threat of rising interest rates on the horizon.

Sofa King's picture

Fuck Silver and Gold.  That's the moneychangers ware.  Bitcoins are the future my friends.  Peer to Peer currency will bring the assraping the bankers.  Minion Schumer is up in arms; must be a credible threat to the return to the money of Kings and the Gentlemen robbers.

FunkyOldGeezer's picture

Ivars: Why post links that don't work and can't be viewed anyway? Therefore anything you write (with such arrogance and authority) is of absolutely no use. You either want to convince us or you don't... what is it?

BTW, what happened to Silver hitting 20?

sudzee's picture

Paper silver, ya right. Try to redeem physical from kitco's "safe storage" today.

ping's picture

Aaaand it's just fallen by ten GBP an ounce... Tyler, the Rand Corporation reverse vampires are monitoring your every post. Careful, man!

GMRobertson's picture
I am amazed.  Only Reuters carried a few lines prior to the drop in the Euro yesterday afternoon.  It continues down today.  Had little to do with Trichet or econ news - it is all that the Starbatty (Group of Four) lawsuit that German funding or involvement with the EFSF, EFSM and ESM are not in accord with the German constitution.  Oral arguments to be heard July 5th.  It seems most analysis of the likelihood that the Karlsruhe will rule for the plaintiff is based upon the results - and therefore all who do comment, who did notice this, state emphatically that Karlsruhe will rule that German participation is constitutional.  But every legal scholar and academic source I can find comes to the conclusion that the EFSF, EFSM, and ESM are unconstitutional.  It should be remembered that while the Karlsruhe can refuse to hear any motion that will do harm to Germany, once they do start proceeding they are obliged to be strictly in accord with the constitution.  The Germans by design call this a "constitutional court" given the dismal failure of the German court systems under Hitler and how they became tools of the Nazis.   I find it incredible no one has noted this development and no one has it  front and center nor did I find one NYC available press carry the story this AM.
Curtis LeMay's picture

Politicians 'Are Lying Through Their Teeth' on Greek Aid



Financial Times Deutschland writes:

"When it comes to the construction of the next bailout for Greece, all the stakeholders are lying through their teeth to such a degree that one hardly knows who one should point the finger at first.",1518,767919,00.html

= = = = =

Wonderful. More lies from the, yuch spit, "euro elite"...

Just bulldoze Brussels before fiscal Armageddon visits us all..

falak pema's picture

"Just bulldoze Brussels before fiscal Armageddon visits us all.."

You are worse than your avatar, who was a true hawk aka Dr Strangelove parody and viz. the Fog of War  testimony; as you are like Pi squared : a cross between a Patton and a Lemay...Now that is truly a level of hubris which is uber-alles. 

Curtis LeMay's picture

"Worse"? For who, for you??

Dude, put the bong down. Reality is your friend...

EU = Despotism.

Open your God damn eyes before those who entrusted you with their portfolio drag you down the ku'damm behind the Merc you conned them out of...