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Steve Liesman: Round Two
Steve Liesman: second round (from Sunday, 11:19 am). Mr. Santelli - your turn.
With a charactersitic bout of nerve over wisdom, let me offer just one more reply:
What exactly are you arguing about here? Whether I'm a jerk or a tool? Is that even worthy of a single reply? Ok, don't answer that.
What would seem to be worth everyone's time is the focus on the issue raised by the essential disagrement between Rick and myself: are the jobs numbers improving or not and what is the right investment play relative to the direction of jobs and the economy?
The question is not are the jobs numbers bad, awful and otherwise horrible now. That is irrefutable. But the existence of 15 million unemployed Americans and millions more discouraged workers don't tell us anything about whether the numbers are worsening or improving. And it doesn't tell us whether we should buy bonds or stocks or gold or cans of tuna fish (is there an ETF for that yet?) to prepare for the end of the world as we know it.
I offer four piece of evidence that the jobs market is improving and believe it will continue to do so:
1. The 4-week avg. of jobless claims (NEW inputs into the system) have stepped down dramatically from 674k at its worst in March to 474k in the last week.
2. Payroll job losses have been reduced to a 3-month average loss of 87k from 691k in losses in the first quarter. Inside the November report we learned of strong upward revisions to Sept. and Oct., a long workweek and the strongest monthly gain in temp. employment in five years.
3. The employment gauge of the ism mfr. index has risen to a rate that suggests job and economic growth. (though it came down slightly in the last month, it remains above 50)
4. Ridiculously high productivity rates that must come down, meaning more jobs and/or longer hours.
I am aware of other indicators that point the other way. The NFIB survey (which I report every month), the ISM services indicator employment component and the stubbornly high duration of unemployment, along with the EUC gains. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate may not be done rising.
But why spend time on personal attacks when history is unfolding all around us, when there are monumental debates to be had about the economy, the right policy, the data and, most important, how to make a buck at all this?
I wish you all happy and prosperous holidays and make a request to keep your eye on the prize, which for me is an expansive bonefish flat, on a warm, windless day and lots of time to enjoy it.
----Steve Liesman
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Steve Liesman said:
"I offer four piece of evidence that the jobs market is improving and believe it will continue to do so:
1. The 4-week avg. of jobless claims (NEW inputs into the system) have stepped down dramatically from 674k at its worst in March to 474k in the last week."
This reduction in jobs claims does not show that the job market is getting better. It shows that the job market may be getting less worse, if you can trust the numbers.
To show the jobs market is getting better, you would need to demonstrate that new jobs (and salaries and benefits) are outpacing lost jobs.
Gov. Paterson to withhold 10% from schools, local gov's - including NYC
Read more: http://www.nydailynews.com/ny_local/2009/12/13/2009-12-13_untitled__2gov...
"But why spend time on personal attacks when history is unfolding all around us, when there are monumental debates to be had about the economy, the right policy, the data and, most important, how to make a buck at all this?"
Yep he's a jerk, a tool, and a sociopath.
+1
Yeah, let's all sit down and have a nice chat about the economy and how the top of the pyramid is consistently wrong about everything. Consistently. How 'bout we talk about mass civil disorder and the effect that will have on the economy for once. And let's have some respect for our executioners, puh-leez! I hate it when people have a plain lack of respect for people that don't care if you or I drop dead.
Steve's an idiot and always has been. He trys so hard to be somone he's not.......an economist. The jobs numbers are not getting better.......the initial layoffs have declined but that means nothing at this point. Hiring is not rising and as soon as companies realize revenue is not ramping there will be additional layoffs.
Items 1 and 2 do not show that the job market is improving, but that it is still getting worse.
Steve is a smart little weasel. He's firmly convinced that he can argue either side of a story and convince people to change their minds. Unfortunately it's this very skill that makes people distrust him.
Steve knows how to stage a debate. He knows how to get people focused on collateral issues that support his spin while avoiding the real questions that beg to be answered.
Steve's job isn't to tell the truth. It's to spin the numbers to support the political addenda. Steve knows the problems that ZHer's speak of, in more detail than we do. Steve thinks his job has been to keep investors from panicking as the world around them changes.
The problem is that CNBC's audience has seen this shtick so many times before that become annoying even to the loyal viewers. Their beginning to demand real answers and Steve is on the bubble and he needs to do something to regain his credibility.
Summarized: "Pay no attention the man behind the curtain!"
That would ruin everything.
Well I hate to do this but I am going to have to come to Liesman's defense. Because, in spite of CNBC being obvious pumpers and shills for the US govt, I think he is probably correct in his statement that "I offer four piece of evidence that the jobs market is improving and believe it will continue to do so."
It's hard to argue that losing 11,000 jobs in a month is not an improvement over losing over 700,000. Likewise, if the number turns positive (as it likely will in the coming months), that will be an improvement over losing 11,000. Arguing that "getting less worse" is not the same as "improving" is semantics... people who still have jobs are much less fearful of being laid off. That is an improvement.
I am as bearish as anyone long-term, but to call someone an idiot every time they suggest the data is improving is self-defeating and not at all helpful.
Liesman still seems like a tool though. But even tools can be right occasionally.
Steve is a journalist and nothing more. Let him raise some capital, start a fund, and more importantly, put his own capital at risk. When he does that, I'll take his opinion under advisement. Until then, he a sideshow, on a near irrelevant financial news program.
I think this show is sponsored by CNBS
The Unemployment Game Show: Are You *Really* Unemployed?
http://tinyurl.com/yzysffk
You all need to rewatch the clip just for laughs. It's like Abbott & Costello, or maybe Gleason & Carney. At around 3:20 RS starts shaking his head like Gleason.
At 3:37, after Liesman says there is no EUC, RS: "How much would you like to make a wager there, big guy."
Finally at 3:48 RS just gives up. SL: "There is no Emergency program, Rick, OK?" RS: "Alright." To the moon, Alice.
Parting shot at 4:32 RS to SL: "I think they [the Obama admin] should have you on Meet the Press too." After seeing Summers today I get it. Stung!
RS is going to go postal soon. Maybe that's why they keep him in a separate room from SL.
Hang in there Rick. I've worked with many a douch bag like SL. Just keep saying "Alright."
I appreciate the respect that some of the crowd has given Steve. He is a human, BUT he is also one that works for the biggest POS propagandist spewing network on the planet. So, being the apparently forgiving bunch we are proving ourselves to be, Steve gets the green light. What about Pelosi, Geitner, Bernanke, Frank ...... you gonna give them the pass as well if they come here and write us a note? This dude and his network have told more non truths to the American public over the past two years than, well, they have told a bunch and should not be given any respect IMO.
Shanky, if you read this thread carefully, you will see that he has been called names, has been threatened physically and has been the subject of mostly brutal attacks which equate his employer with his very own thoughts and ideas.
He is not at all being given a "free pass." We have a beef and he is willing to listen. Do you seriously believe Mssrs. Geithner and Bernanke would subject themselves to such ridicule in a public forum? i don't think so.
Just for standing up tall, he gets my respect.
You seriously overestimate your abilities to manipulate the zero hedge communities perceptions. I mean seriously overestimate.
You are a horrible facilitator.
http://www.eagleforum.org/educate/1998/nov98/focus.html
be careful what you wish for...at least he tries to be honest...the rest of those doorknobs will kill you if you don't mute the thing....
Journalist?
http://www.thenation.com/doc/19991004/taibbli
decide for yourself
SL,
You've been had, bitch, set up for a public humiliation, just let you go fucking on and on, dig that hole deeper, and then STAB.
Bluesquid just sunk his ass. READ THE LINK.
Nine months after Liesman declared that Russia's debt market was due for a rebound, and just over seven months after proclaiming the end of the Russian recession, the Journal--like most US newspapers--found itself having to explain the near-total collapse of Russia's economy and capital markets.
http://www.thenation.com/doc/19991004/taibbli
Okay, I was nice to you on your first post. Asked everyone to get organized and debate you.
You have a record of doing this shit. Just wow.
No Quarter, no sympathy.
What you are doing and calling journalism is treason. I will say no more on the topic of treason. Maybe you are actually this fucking stupid you get it wrong twice, about financial collapses.
Explain your call on Russia. And then your about face, according to the article. Why don't you do that here?
You won't because you are a traitorous coward who will cherrypick what he will and won't respond to.
I got your number tonight mister.
Juicy comment! Kind of like this, only yours is better:
http://www.zastavki.com/pictures/1280x1024/2008/Photoshop_The_nuclear_ex...
Steve -- From what I can tell I think you're a nice guy, at least on-air. But, having a military background, I think you are part of a very sophisticated psyops campaign intended to keep the unwashed masses who work anywhere but Manhattan from revolting. This has required you and your colleagues to compromise any journalistic integrity and to just deliver intellectual pablum for over a year. So, this is not about name-calling, which is unwarranted. It is about the truth that your network, and its corporate sponsors, know the American people cannot handle.
Crap where's cramer when you need him. He could tell us what the truth is and where to find it.
Hey Accenture nice move.
"What exactly are you arguing about here? Whether I'm a jerk or a tool? Is that even worthy of a single reply? Ok, don't answer that."
I don't think anybody is arguing it. Everyone seems to agree that you are indeed a shill and that is the point. And your trying to point the conversation in the direction of the jobs situation is just more of what you do whenever you are shown to be wrong. You misdirect and obfuscate. We discuss the jobs situations on other threads. This thread is about you.
A shameless shill and a damn tool!
You want credibility Steve Liesman?
Report on Shadowstats. Report on its credibility. You are using all the government figures. Are you willing to look and see if those figures are credible? Do you think we are a bunch of raving conspiracy loons? Maybe. Maybe not. But, you are an open minded journalist, right? Well find out. Are we? Most, if not all of us think the government stats are a load of bs. And when you report them as if they have validity, we think you are full of bs also. Are we right or wrong? Find out. Most, if not all of us think that Shadowstats is much closer to the truth.
Bluesquid just sunk him. READ THE LINK.
Nine months after Liesman declared that Russia's debt market was due for a rebound, and just over seven months after proclaiming the end of the Russian recession, the Journal--like most US newspapers--found itself having to explain the near-total collapse of Russia's economy and capital markets.
http://www.thenation.com/doc/19991004/taibbli
Give the ZH community enough time and they'll get to the bottom of anything. Gotta love the power of knowledge and the net.
steve:
i apprciate that you took the time to correct yourself and express your view to a hostile forum. i dont necessarily agree, and i think whats happening at cnbc is horrendous, but youve taken the time to respond without being a cocksucker or talking down to the peanut gallery. so, i give you props on that.
Hi, Steve.
I appreciate your response very much and I am glad that you took the time to write.
A couple of points before I get to my argument, if you will indulge me:
First, personal attacks and calling you "LIES"man is offensive to me. It started with the blowhard on the other blog, who shall go nameless. His style is rude and vulgar, even though the points he makes are valid. Using ad hominem attacks degrades the message. Allow me to apologise for your having to hear these things in any forum that considers itself serious.
The first article from ZH was riddled with parenthetical edited submissions such that I thought it was another tongue-in-cheek joke, a la the new Google FedSpeak Translator page. I couldn't tell if it were a real response from you or not. (Frankly, I am still not certain...)
Second, CNBC is talking to home-gamers. If you simply report the numbers, that is okay. The large investment banks have in-house economists who can break down the data for their prop desks. If CNBC is even on TV anywhere in the buiding, the sound is turned down. There is no need for "instant analysis" for retail investors. Anyone sitting at home trading off the data you present is foolish, at best. Dick Bove got severely burned and his street cred got tarnished just a few weeks ago for doing that. It is not a good idea.
Now, about the numbers:
In general, I like Santelli's style. He is a straight-shooter and speaks his mind. Unfortunately, this time he was shooting from the lip.
If I recall (and I saw the exchange live...), Rick's initial point was the reported import prices causing inflation. He didn't even read the other numbers before commenting on inflation from import prices. Correct me if I am wrong, but when there is a weakening US Dollar, import prices are going to rise. Call it inflation if you will, but "rising prices" is not the technical definition of inflation last I checked. He should know that. Rick Santelli was wrong in saying that, "big guy."
As for your analysis: getting apparently "less bad" does not make things getting better. A little perspective is in order here. We can only lose so many jobs before businesses are hanging on by a thread and with no real new hiring, companies are hoping against hope that things will get better soon. Personally, I believe they are wrong.
So, please, next time Carl asks you for analysis on some number in your netbook and you have to say, "Hold on a minute, Carl, I am looking it up now," you should stop what you're doing and think about it. How can you possibly put things in context when you don't even know what it says? Let's slow down, shall we.
CNBC has lost tons of credibility (and viewers...myself included...) over these last twenty months or so. Cramer going on the Today Show and talking about sell everything you're going to need for the next five years was absurd and irresonsible beyond belief. That never, ever should have happened and just points out Cramer for what he is: a shill for The Company (and I don't mean General Electric...) and a very, very poor money manager. Anyone can look like a genius in a booming bull market (dot.com...), Cramer included.
Add in Michelle Caruso-Cabrera and her shrill treatment of Jerry Brown, Kudlow's one-trick pony and don't even get me started about Dennis Kneale. Man, what a mess your network has become.
If you still have a job after the Comcast switch, you should insist that CNBC stop being a rah-rah channel that treats the markets like a giant video game (The Admiral, The Pit Boss...I mean, what the hell is that?) and get back to timely market information, informative guests who have longer than thirteen seconds to speak and bring on a variety of viewpoints.
Do that and your ratings will go through the roof.
It was nice to talk to you. :D
Olexsandra
Heard that the Ministry of Plenty is hiring....
Q: "Mr. President, where can I get a job?"
A: "I hope that, in the future, we never have to answer questions like this again".
I Think We're All Bozos on This Bus, Firesign Theatre
Steve, IMO, is a victim, willing or otherwise, of Orwell's doublespeak. He long traded his dignity for the privilege of shining the knobs of the aristocracy.
Wackypedia describes doublespeak as
"Doublethink is a form of trained, willful intellectual blindness to contradictions in a belief system.
Doublethink differs from ordinary hypocrisy in that the "doublethinking" person deliberately had to forget the contradiction between his two opposing beliefs — and then deliberately forget that he had forgotten the contradiction.
He then had to forget the forgetting of the forgetting, and so on; this intentional forgetting, once begun, continues indefinitely.
In the novel's notes, Orwell describes it as "CONTROLLED INSANITY".
In the case of workers at the Records Department in the Ministry of Truth, doublethink means BEING ABLE TO FALSIFY PUBLIC RECORDS AND THEN BELIEVE IN THE NEW HISTORY THAT THEY THEMSELVES HAD JUST WRITTEN."
AGREE.
Play the ball, not the man !
"Verbal Kint on Sun, 12/13/2009 #162504 Totally agree with etrader! Unfortunately, the quality of posts (and hence the whole site) is continually deteriorating. If only people could concentrate on facts and stop personally attacking everyone with a different opinion."
Steve Liesman:
"...what is the right investment play... ?"
I use technical analysis.
It works if you apply it correctly.
The charts warned me months ago of a dollar rally.
MORE:
http://www.zerohedge.com/forum/market-outlook-0
Mr. Liesman is at it again this morning. Now he is claiming that if TARP had only been limited to bank bailouts the government would have made money. I suspose that he hasn't heard of the regional bank receipients of TARP that have been taken over by FDIC. With a loss of the TARP funds to the taxpayer.
Talk about spin... He has taken the concept to a new level.
Their debate is a great summary of what is happening in the country as a whole even though it's amazing that we have to debate fascism/communisim/socialism.
WORTH REPEATING IN MY OPINION.
by Orly
on Sun, 12/13/2009
#162838
Using ad hominem attacks degrades the message. Allow me to apologise for your having to hear these things in any forum that considers itself serious.
"when there are monumental debates to be had about the economy, the right policy, the data and, most important, how to make a buck at all this?"
Oh, silly me, I thought the most important debate, better yet...goal, ought to be how all those millions of Americans get back to making a buck.
Mr Steve LIESman, let me help you here, just because the numbers of new unemployed may shrink doesnt mean 'improvement' because eventually you run out of people to fire!
Sure there may be a bit of crappy service sector slave jobs picking up because people need to make ends meet, hardly proves a basis for an improving job market.