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If history is a guide, these gaps are just a chance for somebody to run it all back up.
Is this just one more intra-day trading opportunity?
Well, what does CNBC tell you to do?
No cleavage; no message.
The fat bald guy on in the morning wears a tie, but I'm betting he can cleave with the best of them.
A lot of stocks won't break to the downside... Can't be good. Some of them must implode when PPT let's go - if it ever happens.
but wait. the very people who told us bears are "always" wrong now are wondering if the 200 point plunge is simply an intra-day buying opportunity.
come on man. step up. leverage up on siv's, cmo's, equities and calls. the bears are "always" wrong as you say. have the courage of your convictions.
use your guide from history - spy was $157. spy now is $110. this is a beautiful buying opportunity for you.
Never say never unless you're saying never say never.
i'm agnostic about market direction on any given day. my goal is to be on the right side making money, not laying down absolutes like saying bears are "always" wrong.
This coming from the ultimate permabull...
exactly. but today he's "wondering" if the market drop is an intra-day buying opportunity. i was expecting to hear him telling the board emphatically that this was the buying opportunity of a lifetime, and that he was going all in with 200% margin.
Nic - Cash left an Island top to 1117. Just an FYI for those who have full faith in pure manipulation.
What about the gold breaking down prediction from yesterday, Nic?
Funny, it's not part of "Sticking to Our Guns" post today.
I wonder why, reading chicken entrails didn't work that time?
The facts are that applying trend analysis to your trading is like driving looking at the rear view mirror. A bane of these people who seem to opine endlessly about the market every day are that they have no clue where the market is headed. In fact many a time they paint both bullish and bearish scenarios with no timeframe supplied for either just so they can look intelligent.
To reasonably predict the markets you need to follow the data and even then calling tops and bottoms are a fools game.
Gold could go either way - it could come under pressure as margin clerks look for assets to sell. It could also decouple to the upside as people look for a store of some of their value as fiats argue which one will fail first.
If gold went substantially up - that would be bearish on equities. Especially if physical demand overwhelmed the manipulators.
In 2008, gold fled from weak hands to strong ones. It is still in those strong hands, and is unlikely to have another major downward movement.
Of course, if it does, I will welcome the buying opportunity. I would like to accumulate more prior to the upcoming currency event.
Equity downside is limited and sell offs won't be as intense as you think. No more lemmings left to scare, first of all. Secondly in the context of QE with more expected to come, equities will appreciate. EVEN if the economy tanks. That's what I been saying. That's what happens when the world is awash in ridiculous liquidity. The economy is now in total ZOmbie mode (not just for banks anymore, folks): responding to doses of stim then collapsing without it as the US productive sector has been reduced to a nubbin. Feel vulnerable? Don't worry. Our chief weapon ain't nukes anymore. We just exported the Double Whammy Economy to China! (Economy cooling, CPI at 3%!)
You don't think the robots might be super-fast lemmings when the time comes?
I have no idea. I still want to think that those robots are meant to make money, but by pushing the market ever higher as real people get out, it looks more like they are setting themselves up to be the "greatest fool". Normally, you want to buy low, then ramp the market up and get the suckers in there. But they are ramping it, and driving the suckers out. It's too weird.
Obi-Wan: "If droids could think, we'd all be in trouble."
Oh please, QE2 is a complete non-event. They're only rolling over maturing MBS proceeds into Treasuries. That is about as half-assed a response to deflation as I can imagine. Here's a question for you: If nothing TPTB has tried has worked to date, why will QE2 work as planned?
oh , btw, gooooold.
JP Morgan and Bank of America heavy buyers. Don´t bet against this herd...;=)
There's an eerie resemblance between the last eight days of trading, and the eight days that preceded the May 6 "Flash Crash". Just an observation. Might not hurt to put in a GTD limit buy order for Prudential at $0.01, though.... just a thought, wondering if something like that could actually execute.
Would a trade like that execute...?
If your name is GS probably YES!
If your name is Adam Selene definitely NO!
Yup. I just spewed coffee on my screen when you said that. Damn funny, and perfectly correct.
erm....not double penetration but post.
offcourse it can get executed if u want......suppose if u do own some shares.....u may try buying and selling at that price urself
LIBOR rates in the U.S. continue to fall...sure, makes perfect sense!
Dow 2000. That's how we roll at Obamanomics.
Another thought that struck me after yesterday's action at 2:14 P.M.
If it is true, as it appears to be, that a huge fraction of the volume in the market is generated by ALGO robots, then how do we explain what happened yesterday? Were the robots reading the news wires? Now, I'm a big fan of the posts that show the "crop circle" phenomenon, and it's obvious that some fairly blatant stuff is going on; yet how do we reconcile that with the bigger overall picture where news reports DO move the market? I would have thought anyone that wasn't a computer was sitting aside just watching; yet the way the market moves seems to put lie to that idea. Basically, now I'm REALLY sort of confused.
The computers have been trained to read press reports, and to pick key words out of them, and then trade based off of that information. So yes the Algos do read the news.
There are many computers that read 10-K's and other company reports and press releases, they can scan them and get a sense of if the news is good or bad based on how many times the words "better than expected" or "worse than forecast" are present, and then hit the bid or lift the offer accordingly. All 100x faster than you could even click on the headline on your Bberg terminal.
If what you say is true, the market is even more dangerous than I had thought. I must say, the empirical evidence seems to point strongly in favor of your position.
The difficulty with gold is that physical gold is higher in price than paper gold. I do not have any ratios or ratio variations. I don’t think that a paper gold sell off will impact the physical market with the same proportions. The gold holder is a skeptic and wary of manipulators. I will buy a little with any 20% or so drops in physical price. Although gold may decrease in terms of fiat currencies, will it hold better buying power than the currency basket?
You're going to want to treat it differently based on whether you're trading gold, or buying disaster insurance. The way it looks to me right now is that there's enough paper gold being traded that it ( the tail ) is wagging the price of physical ( the dog ); as long as the demand for physical is low enough not to break the futures market, the paper gold will continue to do this. However, major bullion houses, being not stupid, will adjust the premiums they charge, so what is likely to happen ( IMHO ) in a decoupling event is that the "price" of gold could drop hugely, but the premiums for physical would jump. In other words, the price of gold might go to a dollar, but you couldn't afford to buy it at that price.
I see it as disaster insurance, not to be sold during a crisis, but to come out on the other side with the purchasing power relatively intact. I don't see it as a trading vehicle, personally, though I know a lot of people do.
I remember that when all this started, I ordered some physical, and it took just at three months to get it. When SHTF, you can forget about buying and getting physical, no matter WHAT the price is.
This guy posted a count from an assumed top at 1129.24 last night which looks to be playing out:
But he does warn that 1010.91 needs to go - there's a bullish count that he has that stands until that level goes -see the above link.
So, I can see the importance of the 1010 level mentioned in the article.
Was at a JPM bank yesterday taking care of some business and the new "Financial Adviser" asked me if I was interested in investing in the market. I said, "you mean the big ponzi?" She almost fainted right in the middle of the bank. Then I told her I trade, don't invest.
Thanks Nic! Keep it coming.
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