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Stocks Making a Double Top?
The most
significant development in the markets today is S&P’s decision to revise
its US outlook to negative. This single issue has resulted in stocks taking a
nosedive and Gold exploding higher.
Regarding
stocks, this has resulted in a clear double top forming. Even more worrisome is
the fact the S&P 500 has broken through support at 1,300.
The next
lines of support are 1,280 then 1,260.
I want to stress that the rising bearish wedge pattern we broke out of
in late February forecast a significant correction with an ultimate target of
1,100. The only reason we didn’t go there in March was because of a concerted
effort by the world’s central banks to intervene. However, if they loose control
of the market now, we’ll be going there very shortly.
Interestingly,
the S&P 500 announcement has resulted in the US Dollar rallying. Over the
last 24 months, every time bad news was announced, the Dollar collapsed while
stocks rallied on the idea that the Fed would be printing even more money to
battle the economic downturn.
However,
this time around, stocks are tanking and the US Dollar is rallying hard. The
implications of this are vast. Is the Fed telling its buddies (Goldman etc)
behind the scenes that they won’t be engaging in QE 3? Is the tide of easy
money finally turning?
I doubt it.
The Fed HAS to keep funneling the money into the insolvent big banks. Failing
to do so will trigger a collapse in the interest rate-based derivatives market
which currently stands at $180+ TRILLION in the US alone.
However, and
I want to stress this, eventually the Fed will lose control here. When it does,
this whole mess will collapse, interest rates will jump and the US economy and
financial system will begin to implode again.
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prepare for this, I strongly urge you to download a copy of my FREE Special
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I call it The
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Best
Regards,
Graham
Summers
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My craw tells me that the global power elite will head fake "no QE3", causing the stock market to tank, sheering The Sheeple the whole way down. Then, all the cheerleading parrots in the gubmint-media complex will beg for more QE, which the (not really) Federal (with no) Reserve will gladly oblige, crushing the bond market and plucking all the chickens who fled stocks. Of course, with the Giant Vampire Squid frontrunning each move with inside information, as is customary...
The silver lining (pun intended) could be the hot money forced to dump all forms of papersilver in their scramble for "liquidity" to cover their margin call @$$-whuppins in stocks & bonds, enabling patient contrarian buzzards to BTFD!
Sure but u got to respect the possible rev H&S here too. A break would be fast like flash crash but why on earth do u think Ben can't do right when he's done it right for over two years. Just saying
Spx monthly is on a golden cross which is where a PB could be targeted.
I am watching the 4 week ema just to keep it simple
If you think he's all powafool, then by all means go long here.
But the eurozone is imploding, the dollar wants to rally (everybody is short the USD), Japan is still melting down, MENA is revolting, China's RE is imploding, and everything (PMs, commods & stocks) are way oversold, margin debt is at long term highs, and the US just broke through the 'debt ceiling' http://www.zerohedge.com/article/total-us-debt-now-officially-above-ceiling .
I like cash right now.
1,100 in the S&P ...now that'd be nice :)
Why, are willing to go all in there?! Lol
S&P pessimistic scenario is optimistic compared to but close to my scenario from February 6th:
I think recession will last 2012 and into 2013 and will be by no means too mild ( -2-4% contraction of GDP).
http://saposjoint.net/Forum/viewtopic.php?f=14&t=2626&start=0#p30485
'COPPER has ignored the recent equity bounce. Daily and weekly are not bullish' ~ March 31, 2011.
'When the sell off does occur, it won’t be pretty. As mentioned earlier, this market behaviour is similar to 2007 / 2008' ~ April 6, 2011.
'DOW/S&P500 is tracking sideways once again suggesting that short covering rally has lost momentum' ~ April 7, 2011.
http://stockmarket618.wordpress.com
"debt, debt, debt, debt, debt." that's what's in the news "Phoenix." I don't recall S&P downgrading the entire equity market...although obviously that can be "inferred" by a sovereign debt downgrade of the USA. I say BRING IT--of course--even though "the downgrade had the exact opposite effect." Needless to say "what this really means is you better have your shit together if you're New Jersey, New Hampshire, Illinois and California" since if you're "downgrading the sovreign and Sovreigns soar" then obviously those four liabilities are to "feel more than just austerity."
I suspect this will be yet another opportunity for Goldy to load up and give it to the bears while they're taking thier shorts off.... The ability to keep this market levitated has been incredible
Planned global coordination for control will always fail to predict accurately any eventual outcome.
Hear the next president of the USA as current parties will continue to do nothing about the debt-which will lead to the USA default in 2013-2014:
http://saposjoint.net/Forum/viewtopic.php?f=14&t=2663#p31841
As far as I'm concerned the Palin for President campaign is DOA.
The fed.has told everyone that qe2 will.stop on time and no qe3 is planned.
In order to gain legitimacy there must be real deflation or even some.contraction before qe3 will ne considered.
I maintain that the end of qe2 will be negative for.gold and.stocks, neutral for bonds, and positive for the dollar.
The Fed may have already lost control. Here we are mid April... June is 2 months away and the dollar is still over 75.00 ....
Rates can only go one way... UP.
I dont think the 'dollar devaluation' is working. There is so much bearishness on the dollar and the market action today suggests aknowledging the broken dollar system only rallies the dollar.
So if there is a systemic effort to 'come clean', as the S & P US debt downgrade suggests, we could see the dollar back over 80 and alll of us wondering "WTF how did this happen".
Sound about right?
Yes and http://www.zerohedge.com/article/stocks-making-double-top#comment-1182160