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Stocks See Brief Pop On Beat In Factory Orders, Durable Goods Revision Even As Numbers Impact Q1 Economic Data

Tyler Durden's picture





 

March Factory Orders came out at a stronger than expected 3.0%, on expectations of 2.0%, while the previous number was revised to 0.7% from -0.1%. More importantly Durable Goods were revised from 2.5% to 2.9%, with Durables ex-transportation revised from 1.3% to 1.8%. Yet one wonders how March data is all that critical considering April has already passed and according to diffusion indices the economy is already seeing a modest contraction. At best this number will result in a hike to Q1 GDP from already a painfully low 1.8% as reported last week. Needless to say, the Japanese weakness was not to be expected in March and will only affect the economy in April and onward. Look for car sales data for the first true indication of how the Japan effect is impacting US production.

From the report:

New orders for manufactured goods in March, up five consecutive months, increased $13.5 billion or 3.0 percent to $462.9 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau reported today. This followed a 0.7 percent February increase. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 2.6 percent.

Shipments, up seven consecutive months, increased $12.0 billion or 2.7 percent to $461.4 billion. This followed a 0.6 percent February increase. Unfilled orders, up eleven of the last twelve months, increased $7.0 billion or 0.8 percent to $844.0 billion.

This followed a 0.7 percent February increase. The unfilled orders-to-shipments ratio was 5.54, down from 5.63 in February.

Inventories, up fourteen of the last fifteen months, increased $6.3 billion or 1.1 percent to $572.3 billion.

This followed a 1.0 percent February increase. The inventories-to-shipments ratio was 1.24, down from 1.26 in February.

And some thoughts from Stone McCarthy:

Factory orders gained 3.0% in March after rising 0.7% in February (previously down 0.1%). This was above expectations. The Bloomberg survey median estimate was for up 2.0%.

Forecasts ranged from up 0.8% to up 3.5%. Our forecast was for up 2.3% in March. There was an upward revision in the durables component for March, and nondurables rose more than anticipated.

Durables orders were up 2.9% (first reported +2.5%), and nondurables rose 3.1%.

Overall factory orders rose on a solid increase in transportation (+6.2%). Excluding transportation, orders were up 2.5%, still a decent rise. The 3.1% increase in nondurables was due mainly to gains in petroleum and chemicals.

Overall, factory orders have managed to show improved activity outside of the volatility in transportation.

Inventories rose 1.1% in March, shipments were 2.7% higher, and unfilled orders were up 0.8%. The inventory-to-shipments ratio was down to 1.24 in March from 1.26 in February.

 

 


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Tue, 05/03/2011 - 10:17 | Link to Comment 66Sexy
66Sexy's picture

A meaningless sea of numbers in a phantom economy. Do fundamentals really matter?

If work is measured in dollars, and the dollar is backed by a perception of value that is false... are we really working for nothing?

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 10:54 | Link to Comment Alex Kintner
Alex Kintner's picture

It's the Façade maintained for the Morbidly Rich whose one and only skill is "Counting".

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 10:14 | Link to Comment 6 String
6 String's picture

Long 2000, Amazon, Neflix, and Apple.

 

 

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 10:12 | Link to Comment NoBull1994
NoBull1994's picture

inventories building...

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 10:16 | Link to Comment LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Setting up the big short.  Yeah Q1 looks good, now about Q2...  

 

Will Japan be the harbinger of doom or the fall guy for the U.S.?

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 10:19 | Link to Comment RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

Bank stocks leading the charge today.

Everyone is celebrating the downdraft in the CRB index.

Inflation is over!!!  Time to party!!  LOL...

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 10:26 | Link to Comment firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

Your darling momo's are getting killed today, which means liquidity is not flowing well. 

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 10:24 | Link to Comment razorthin
razorthin's picture

>120% IV on all AGQ Puts.  Write away...

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 10:24 | Link to Comment Internet Tough Guy
Internet Tough Guy's picture

Momofader posting the same stuff day after day. Only the names change. Don't ask him about TZOO or LULU. lulz.

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 10:44 | Link to Comment 6 String
6 String's picture

Minute Maid just to a doozy! The same product line just went from 128 oz. to...wait for it, 89 oz.

That with the same price point. That is a 30% overnight inflationary tax. Thank you financial system. Can you also keep trying to deflate my silver position? You are far too kind.

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 10:26 | Link to Comment wang
wang's picture

from drudge

WHITE HOUSE RELEASES BIN LADEN DEATH PHOTO
Tue May 03 2011 10:22:50 ET


President Obama has decided to release at least one photo showing Osama Bin Laden's death.

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 10:39 | Link to Comment tmosley
tmosley's picture

That's not it.  That is a photoshoped picture that has been circulating since Friday.  The beard, lips, and ears match a picture of him from 1998.

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 10:39 | Link to Comment bob_dabolina
bob_dabolina's picture

Than I've been hammed. I'm not a photoshop whiz so I wouldn't be able to tell the difference.

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 10:39 | Link to Comment Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

So they are going to release the photoshopped one and stick to it. Good luck with that.

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 10:39 | Link to Comment Alex Kintner
Alex Kintner's picture

bin Laden is smiling. He always said his goal was to bankrupt the Great Satan. Little did he know our own corrupt politicians would complete the job much faster than he ever could.

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 10:33 | Link to Comment jerry_theking_lawler
jerry_theking_lawler's picture

nothing is 'moving' today. everything is just kinda meandering around?? all i can say is Thank Goodness......

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 13:42 | Link to Comment jsmfr
jsmfr's picture

Hey Tyler, when a diffusion index moves from say 60 to 58, it does not indicate contraction. As long as a diffusion index is above 50, whatever it is referring to is growing.  Therefore, the current message from diffusion indices is that growth in the mfg sector is a bit slower than it was. Hardly shocking given that manufcturing output grew at about a 9% annual rate in Q1.

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