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Stocks Surge To Celebrate Unprecedented 19th Sequential Equity Outflow, $10 Billion In September Redemptions
It is beyond a joke now: ICI's latest data discloses that in the week ended September 8, domestic funds saw outflows of $2.2 billion, following last week's massive $7.7 billion. And yes, ETFs experienced outflows as well. So far September has experienced nearly $10 billion in outflows, even as the market has ramped by over 6%. Who is buying this shit? Just ask The New York Fed and Citadel: they may have a few pointers (wink wink). This is the 19th sequential outflow from US stocks, and amounts to $65 billion in redemptions for the year. With the market pretty much unchanged YTD, it means that mutual funds can not resort to capital appreciation as a substitute to outflows, and most are on their last breath (Janus: blink twice if you are still alive please). The kicker: the S&P is at the level it was when the outflows began back during the flash crash. If that doesn't restore all your confidence that Uncle Sam will be so good at managing the market (just like he has done with everything else), nothing else will. Throw in a little HFT, a little subpennying, a little Flash trading, a little DMA trading, a little quote stuffing, a little hedge fund clubbing, a little specialist front running, a little daily flash crash in big caps like Nucor Steel, and you can see why next week we will most certainly have our first inflow in 20 weeks. Or not. It doesn't matter. Nobody that is made of carbon, or who doesn't already have direct access to the Fed for zero cost funding, is trading stocks anymore.
Weekly YTD outflows:
Cumulative YTD outflows:
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I really think that lacking immediate external forces for deleveraging, the consumer base will deleverage over time in waves... some months up, some down. But the overall deleveraging trend will remain down. Just going off of "head-out-the-window" style forecasting here...
What people don't understand about Mastercard is that it is a utility... unless you try and factor in international growth. And, I hate to tell you bro, but debit cards have been and continue to be the fastest growing segment of their revenue... (which is about to come under fire thanks to Fin Reg) And JESUS Robo, longer then a week please!
Lastly, if your thesis did have any validity, they should have had no trouble breaking firmly through the tops on the Indices today. I didn't see that.
Mastercard announced a stock buyback plan, which caused it to gap up.
The underperforming managers, like their mutual fund counterparts, have no money. Unless you think 3% is big stuff.
"low grade" and "Ukranian" are not in my "little book of similes."
Robo, more hot girl pics and less talking yourself into this phony market rally. Buy stocks, short stocks, it doesn't matter -you'll go broke just the same...
I have to admit - I like your tongue-in-cheek style. However - your strengths are posting hot chix with the witty comments vs. of waving your pompoms hoping for a bull market..
Robo,
Seriously you've got to look beyond your conveniently selected timeframe. CAT is right at a double top during OE week -- still could go either way...there is no strength there until it confirms a move either way.
MA -- we already discussed that chart earlier -- looks hot over the last few days. Still looks like shit on a longer term horizon.
Mortgage insurers -- junk. Sure go long but if anything impacts the market to downside it'll be over before the fat lady even gets dressed in the morning.
i think we break till 1200 on absolutely crappy data... and then I will short.... however, there is a gap or two that are likely to be addressed on the ESZ10
I'm going long Gold, Oil, and TIPS
Has anybody considered that retail has it all wrong? The market has pretty much stalled while retail sells into the waiting hands of the smart money. As soon as retail decides to start buying again, smart money will start selling into the bull market only to have the last retail buy at the next peak.
Just a thought.
Yea everythings actually ok. Just a trick. Really, the 75% Borrow and Consume economic model is just peachy, and we dont actually have an insurmountable debt and 100% broken markets and criminal incompetent sold out govt. Just ALL a trick to get retail to 'sell cheap' I'm sure.
Then after retail sells cheap to the 'smart money', how is retail middle class america now destroyed going to rebuild, recover, in a few decades, and get back in the markets, and buy the top from the 'smart money'? Have you thought this out at all?
The only reason to buy stocks is to sell higher, agreed? So who do the smart money expect to sell higher to exactly?
Some of us collect dividends, and use the dividends to pay off debt issued at very low interest rates.
And happy anniversary.
Rasputin
- Wed, Sep 15, 2010 - 12:33 PM
Because it was exactly two years ago on this date that Lehman Brothers
was allowed to go down in flames, and the world was reeling from the
carnage.
Fast-forward to today:
1. Stock markets recovering nicely, derivatives casinos in full
operation and actually LARGER than ever. Same for Fannie/Freddie
2. U.S. fiatsco STRONGER than it was before the Fed started
flinging fiatscos in all directions
3. Sheeple remain complacent (no surprise there)
4. Same Alpha Thugs in charge at the Fed/Treasury/SEC/FDIC, same
Wall Street criminals pulling their scams
5. In fact, the Fed and Uncle have MORE power and control over the
economy and financial/credit system than ever.
However, one thing that HAS changed.
And that is that Rasputin has morphed from a
ranting, raving, gold-and-twinkie-clutching hyperventilating maniac to a
docile, resigned little lamb who now understands that there will be NO
"Mad Max" and that he is not the "Monetary Messiah" he believed he once
was.
So, at least something is different today.
LOL.
Anyway, happy anniversary
1. Where the hell is the stock market recovery? S&P 1100, dude, that is so 1999. I can't believe anyone actually calls what we've experienced over the past year a 'recovery'. More like a technical bounce off the bottom.
Wake me up when the S&P 500 is 2000, and we can start talking 'recovery'.
apparently you dont trade futures... AUD.... Copper
there is something evil here indeed. for this blockbuster to be "made whole" he must make an appearance.
This Rasputin is just another luddite who believes a specie backed currency is magic powder and a functioning "modern" economy is based on coin holders seeking out a good quality suit. In other words, helpless creatures waiting to be conquered.
you had me at 'twinkie'...... mmmm
OK, you used to be entertaining. I don't know who the f*ck rasputin is but if he has liked gold for the last two years he looks like a fucking genius...LOL (another thing I f*ing hate as you are either under 30 posting like you have all the answers to the worlds trading problems or you are over 50 trying to sound under 25).
I think that Americans feel intuitively that the financial markets are completely manipulated for the benefit of Wall Street titan, and that they are being stuck with the bill. For many, that bed matress never looked so good as a savings account.
Anyone american with even a somewhat functioning brain can clearly see its all a fraud. So how do they EVER recover any market confidence? Impossible, its gone. Unless america is really just a bunch of battered housewife syndrome basket cases, in which case its the most pathetic country in the world anyway, and still destroyed.
75% Borrow and Consume economic model destroyed.
All this is about is extending a feeling of 'all is well' to keep the peasants away from the elite fortresses until whatever massive terrible event they have planned next is unleashed upon us.
Someone wants to destroy our country.
Not destroy it.
Run you broke, take everything you have in exchange for a bag of rise and make sure everything you have belongs to "them".
It's not only your country. Also mine and every western country in the world.
If we don't start sticking together and with we I mean:
America and Europe
into 1 front, we'll lose this battle.
The problem is: WE ALL LACK NON-CORRUPT POLITICIANS!
Every European President SUCKS, the American president SUCKS!
We need good leadership, FOR the people!
Good luck with that one....all puppets now in the left vs. right charade! We haven't had a real leader in over a century....Andrew Jackson!
I beg to differ, SD. I need NO leadership. All I need is to be left alone. Like the Vietnamese rice farmer, Ho, Giap, Thu, Diam, etc., doesn't matter. All were scum and they never made it to his village anyway. He was just concerned to farm his rice and feed his family. Dem, Repub, Social, Commie, I really don't care. Just leave me the hell alone. 40,000 more laws on the books, irrelevant. Manipulate everything, so what. I am checked out of the system as much as possible and still working on it. Soon I won't have this tether to the madness either, and I will miss ZH. Oh well. Liberty has never been cheap.
Quite the challenge these days in getting out of the system.....hat's off to you!
Janus is dead, but Bailey is alive and well, thanks to KSU shareholders.
Janus has no opposite God therefore he cannot die.
Bailey has more money than God (thanks KSU), and divorced his opposite before hitting the NAV-Lottery. I don't know if he can die, but he sure knows how to live. NMFP.
Bailey, sure is a live. can't even describe his HORSE breeding ranch he built on the roaring fork river. damn, he must of spent a billion dollars on tall trees to make a sound barrier between his mcmansion and Hwy 82 the multi lane super interstate mega noisy road. he is a clown, really.
The McMansion is his fishin' lodge. His home is a glorious Victorian in town.
Not a clown. A self-made mo-fo. Better than most men I know. Much better than his mentor, may he rot in hell.
Not his fault KSU was hungry.
Thank goodnesss that he and Phil's sister, Sue, stepped up to the plate to protect the mountain. Hard to argue with that.
who are you?
Better than most men I know. what are you talking about? no he is a buffoon.
he was originally from vail. came over to exploit the roaring fork valley.
who is phil and sue. oh yeah protect the mountain, sure.
Came over to exploit the roaring fork valley? You are high.
http://www.avlt.org/docs/aspentimes-PerryRanch2.pdf
yeah so what if he paid 26M, he probably doesn't have to pay any property taxes because he uses it for agriculture. it is just a joke the amounts of tree this crack ass planted. do you see them when you drive up to work from Silt? listen who are you? all these banksters and fraudsters all came to the roaring fork valley to exploit it. it is the capital for all the white collar criminals that will never get f'ked in prison. they just f'ck all the white slaves working their gentleman ranches, preening their bodies in the spas and teaching them how to be an athlete. by the way, he totally set up ski club vail with janus funds. brilliant right?
the perry's son is a wild glass blower, really really unassuming.
Maybe the Fed is doing the right thing for the wrong reason. Propping and pumping lets Joe Sixpack sell out and have some money to spend on Ipads.
They are doing the right thing. But to slowley!
The Derivates are set to explode in the next 2 to 4 years if this economy and NOT the market doesn't take off!
2 YEARS PEOPLE!!! 2!!!
THAT'S FUCKING CLOSE!
The fact is noone here can design atomic weapons and their delivery systems. And I don't think you're worth a fucking kernel of rice if you cannot do so at some point in the next 10 years. Small arms and gold? Lol.
But if you got to go, go in a shroom cloud.
Depends on what you mean by "delivery system". Doesn't have to be rocket science.
Hamas and Hezbullah are "Looking for a few good couriers."
This can go on for a lot longer. I find it is really unhealthy to focus on this each and everyday. THEY OWN THIS GAME. Not us. We have no say. Everything is a secret.
Far too many people dependent upon the dollar. One of my favorite quotes is about those owning the currency control the nation
Marc Faber said in 5-10 years the US dollar will be Wallpaper. I do not hear any cries of impending doom other than on a long time line.
Bernanke knows what he is doing, he isn't an idiot like many people believe him to be. He doesn't own this. He already told the Government that this is unsustainable without clearing Government debt. Thus, he is on record.
If you talk with people they worry more about inflation than deflation. Only Wall Street cries about Deflation. Doesn't make sense, but that is the reality. Perhaps it is a good thing this is the case. When the BIG EVENT happens some day down the road, people can focus souly on the money printers rather than blaming Bush or Obama.
I don't know if we will ever experience a "Collapse" or "Mad Max". Borrowing rates have never been lower, people continue to flood into bonds and the market keeps going up. The faith of the currency and credit have yet to come under pressure other than politicians trying to get elected pointing to "debt".
This can and will go on for much longer. It is a shame. but it is the truth.
The coup happened in 2008. That was the BIG EVENT. If a Deflationary Depression is where this was headed, we would have taken that route already.
Seems like the FED might be playing some games. But an audit will NEVER happen. NEVER ever Never ever. Got it?
The truth is secrets can be kept. If you look at every BIG EVENT that has happened in US history. There is ALWAYS a cover-up. The truth and other evidence can remain hidden for a very long time but usually, forever.
I suspect this will be the same for the FED and the US economy. Obviously the market does win out, but it can and will go on for a VERY VERY long time.
Seems like society is doing pretty well. Shopping malls are full, traffic is still jammed, resturants have long waiting times, ball stadiums full despite run away tix and beer price.. you get the idea.
IMO, the time to be bearish is behind us. Football Season and Network shows are starting their full fledged new seasons now. So far the system is working out quite alright in doomer nation!
I guess it can go on as long as moron spineless stupid america does nothing to stop its own destruction.
You forgot "lazy". And "fat".
PS i didnt junk you.
could be "weird science." the "thing" could appear.
unemployment is running out for at least 10% or more.....jobs are still disappearing....and we are headed back into the fall unemployment cycle. Average housing drop in my neighborhood was 5% in August alone with 30-40% drop in the 1st 6 months of the year. No housing ATM, no job moves, and the biggest game in town is telling the bank to shove off while pocketing the rent payment to support living standards.
Oh and we are 120 days out from the biggest tax increase in history!
The bear is a grizzly and it ain't going away!
Tell it like it is Yophat.
Seems you may be very correct. There is one other who cries for deflation, EW's Robert Prechter. Who wants to sell you all kinds of stuff to validate why he was wrong on his last projection. He really burned his subscribers in February of this year. Unlike Marc Faber who has been right so far and is free. Just listen. And by the way. Marc says you will never get him to give up his Gold. He says it's his answer to the printing presses. Did I say, his advise is free.
Another bizarro day: "Real" assets like Oil and Gold are down while the 'paper' assets are up. Something doesn't smell right...
Yup. Large-cap gold mining stocks (ie: Barrick) are trading at the same levels as they were when gold was $800/ounce. Figure that out for me...
And Gold and Silver coins are down 10 cents on average per Oz since silver is up about 2$ and gold 27$!
Think JPMorgan, shorting silver every way possible. Especially Paper. While hoarding all the physical they can get.
This is parallel to July 2009, March 2010, and now September. How much higher can IYR go? I am calling double top in this in this is a few weeks. Tons of these companies are starting to see huge increases in vacancies as corporate leases are longer than consumer. Fed is giving money to banks to prepare for commercial real estate collapse that will happen early next year.
If I had blown 8 TRILLION dollars on a Keynesian economic plan that did absolutely nothing, I would probably be doing everything to cover up my incompetence too! This ponzi game they are playing with themselves will only self destruct eventually. Remember, this is the summer of recovery? Don't be surprised if they juice the market up to DOW 12,000 just in time for the mid-term elections. This whole Dog and Pony Show is like watching someone on artificial life support, unfortunately when the chips finally fall the burden it caused to the American people will not be sustainable. Really is SAD! no better word comes to mind.
sad....rhymes with
With everyone beat down into submission like sorryass French losers...'looks like this just goes on forever, year after year' dont be surprised to see some part of this contraption fly off and we get another 1,000 point down day. Everyone already forget that little surprise no one called only a few months ago? YEA, it just goes on forever, till it suddenly doesnt. And I pray all permabulls are in and cant get out.
It occurs to me that a bunch of folks (including me) were bemoaning the endless stoopid ramps in ... 1999.
Uh, if that shit happens again now, I'm gonna give myself a lobotomy with a 3/4" masonry bit and a hammer drill.
Or maybe I'd rather have a bottle in front of me than a frontal lobotomy. Decisions, decisions.
What? You never saw anything remotely like this in 1999 .com bubble, which makes whats going on today look totaly sane by comparison.
Im with ya though, I'd rather use a 1" Makita on my forehead than watch this BS continue day after day.
Well yeah, but I don't find too many stocks today trading at like 800x sales and 200x never-extant earnings.
BIDU at 35x sales and CRM at 10x are pretty ridiculous.
Just please, for the love of the Flying Spaghetti Monster, don't let everything go parabolic.
You know we have kind of past the period where inflation should start to show since the bail out. I am wondering if we maybe witnessing a liftoff in everything...
Well fortunately with 10% unemployment and the debt load the consumer acquired from 99 the most parabolic we seem to be able to get is what we've seen since 03/09...of course you never know, but seems unlikely at this juncture.
I"ve even found dozens of articles dating from 1985 predicting this crisis in details. EVERYTHING they warned about came true.
take the bottle. i prefer Wild Turkey myself.
RUM
Drinks all around!!!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JImcvtJzIK8
No Major apocolyptic event is likely in the near term. Sort of a bummer, the afternoon grows long and my coffee and soda fix has worn clean off...
Next Wednesday/Thursday. You could spit there from here.
It feels it like a bizarre game of chicken.
In one car, you have traders borrowing money on the cheap, expecting the retail investor to come back. In the other car you have baby boomers desperately trying to hang onto their wealth.
Time and interest rates are the factors.
Once the free money looks like it's going to disappear, traders will start selling.
I doubt the people will start buying. To close to retirement for stocks.
But who will the traders sell to?
There will always be buyers. Just a lot less of them who are willing to pay less.
Stock market investing is no different than sports betting.
You cannot bet on who "should" win or lose.
You need to bet with the house, not against it.
Right now "the house" wants stocks higher, not lower.
So I'm betting with the PPT, not against it.
And thats all the bid/ask Ponzi stock market is, betting, suckers bets. Without even the benefit of Vegas odds, free drinks or girls in bikinis delivering them to you. Once you apply any logic or squiggly line graphs to any of it, then youre fooling yourself. Go ahead and keep gambling with the manipulators, and please keep referring to it as gambling.
sorry robo. But is you want to compaire it with sport betting you should say: Optiontrading is like sportbetting.
Stocktrading still give you second and third changes for a recovery.
agree... OTC and CFTC at least report the "Non-Commercial Long"
Stock market... well PPT...
John Paulson agrees. Except for that one time that he didn't. Should he buy Goldman Sachs just to make a point?
As I have said previously, I wish you luck sir. I know you already have a boat load of profits as you got in early. Congrats. However, I am of the belief that things can turn ugly very quickly and without warning. Volatility is here to stay for the next 10-20 years.
Look, another "SuperTrader" is informing us how to make money on "investing". The hot pictures of females no doubt validates his extreme prowess. OK, you have graciously delivered the key secrets. I shall book the party plane full of hot chicks in anticipation of mega moola.
Robotrader is no different than the scumbags Bernanke Geithner and Summers running this criminal enterprise. I hope he gets cut off at the neck, and oubt his 'trading prowess' anyway. Anyone can search and post a couple boner charts big fukin deal. He's complicit, therefore as much a part of the problem as any of the rest.
disagree- trading is trading- dont get but hurt
Most people with money to invest have jobs. They can't sit in front of the computer all day punching F12 key. If gambling is their only option, they will just stay away and leave the market to you robots. Enjoy battling the HFT droids.
RT, just so you know you're not completely alone here, I also see the obvious and putting my money on it. There are so many reasons for the market to rise, but an overlooked one are those who piled late into bonds and are now feeling a bit of angst watching stocks ratchet higher. When they call it quits on the bonds it'll be worth quite a bit for the market.
BTW, I don't know how RT operates, but it doesn't take me much time at all to get on the right side of a trade.
Robo, that's fine if your bet is for this week of Options Expiration. If you are positioning for anything else not so much...bet on.
I'm getting the feeling that someone else has spiked Robo's nick and is messing with us. Months ago the commentary was more fun and certainly skeptical of the moves - The old Robo said things like "the traders were out dry humping old models" etc etc. I loved that commentary because even as the market was going up.. Robo's lines always made me laugh. That being said, today's Robo seems to be talking a bit more positively about markets, but the commentary doesn't have the 'normal' cynical edge.
where is the dry humping Robo?
Apparently he went "all in" in July. Can't blame him if he wants to keep the party going but he needs to back away from the punch bowl.
OT. It's stories such as this one:
http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSN0315242120100915
That makes me think gold is approaching the bubble stage. Sounds eerily like grandma flipping condos in Miami in 2006...
Right, but STOCKS, nah theyre not approaching the bubble stage of course.
Soon to be known as the Second California Gold Rush.
Remember more money was made on selling these people things, then the gold itself.
my girl was an up and coming Vetrinarian at the time. Needless to say they were willing to "help her with the practice" when "the collapse came." Smartly she did not take the money but "stuck to her knitting."
It's happening all over the world as a result of the revaluation.
Bubble? See this:
Millar stresses the periodic upward revaluation of gold as the mechanism for defeating a deflationary debt depression at the end of an economic cycle. Millar writes:
"The first cycle unfolded as follows:
"-- Phase 1: Stability under a gold standard until 1914.
"-- Phase 2: Inflation until 1921, which resulted in a buildup of debt.
"-- Phase 3: Disinflation, which brought stability and allowed asset inflation until 1929, but encouraged a further buildup of debt.
"-- Phase 4: Instability after 1929 caused by deflation of assets from overpriced levels and exacerbated by excessive debt levels, leading to depression of economic activity.
"-- Phase 5: Monetary reform enabled by a revaluation of gold to overcome deflationary debt depression.
"In the second half of the 20th century we saw a repeat of the first three phases of the same cycle:
"-- Phase 1: Stability from 1944 to 1968 under a gold standard.
"-- Phase 2: Inflation from 1968 to 1981, which caused and justified another buildup of debt.
"-- Phase 3: Disinflation from 1981 until the end of the 20th century, and maybe to the present.
"However, it appears that Phase 4 (instability and ultimately deflation due to excessive debt) may have started. If so, Phase 5 (revaluation of the gold price to raise the monetary value of the world monetary base and hence reduce the burden of debt) becomes likely or inevitable. The extent of that revaluation would need to be major according to our calculations, probably by a factor of at least seven times, possibly up to 20 times the current price of gold."
http://www.gata.org/node/4843
Bubble? Naw, what else are unemployed folks gonna do once the 99 weeks of freebies is up?
ROFLMAO
You just can't make this shit up.
Can't take this fake market anymore. Closed all positions (profitably) at EOD except two 'lottery tickets'. And I've been on the market all through 2008, 2009, till date. No more.
SPX can go to 2500 for all I care, not coming back unless this fakery/casino ends.
There would have to be hundreds of arrests and life sentences and/or deportations for me to ever touch any of this fraud market ever again.
Household deleveraging is just getting started. It doesn't matter what the NY/DC cabal does now.
People understand that a major change has occurred. And that the overborrowing is over and done. When you pay a credit card, the bank comes and reduces the credit limit by 80%. The credit is contracting, not expanding. Ratios on HELOCs are shot to hell, that's not coming back. Boomers retirement, kid college funds are revealed to be pure scams.
It is silly and irrelevant to show people stock index trends at this point. I guess some younger folks still have 'fun accounts' on the side, like video games, but really it's not much money.
Sit in cash, pay off all debts and vote against everybody. That is the household economic and political model. Get used to it, there's another leg down and 20 more of shit coming.
All because the elite evaded the highest responsibility of capitalism: to take a loss without lying or stealing from old folks and babies. Traitorous pussies.
Paper investing is dead. NY/DC killed it.
Oh yes, I study Mises and learn about "Free Markets". Its a real neat ideology. Just seems really suited for DEFLATION, doesn't it?
Paper investing is dead.
I come here to gold paper invest. Then I go to Vegas to invest. Then I go to buy lotto ticket investments.
People who thought they had money are starting to shit bowling balls right now. I know an older couple who just pulled $600,000 out of market on monday, they are trying to keep two companies afloat.They are so leveraged the thought of losing everything is unthinkable.
dime a dozen!
I think there are a lot of people like that. I always wondered in the hay day how everyone seemed to have endless supplies of money -- then I realized it was in fact the leverage (call me an idiot for not realizing). People I would have assumed owned things free and clear are lucky to not owe someone for the underwear they put on everyday.
No doubt it will be counted by MSM as just another $600K on the sidelines waiting to hop back in.
Yup, agree.
The saddest part of the 20-week long mutual fund redemption streak is that most of the money is not being "Clever". They're not getting out of stocks only because they don't trust the market or because they're re-investing conservatively. They need the money to eat, pay bills, de-leverage, pay creditors, maintain mortgage payments on underwater homes, pay for imported items that Americans no longer make etc....
The important point here is that money is no longer available to re-allocate to stocks at some point in the future. The money is not "ON the sidelines" as it usually is during a downturn. It's being spent on consumption and debts from a bygone era.
Deleware Democratic senatorial nominee Chris Coons really did play the monster in "Young Frankenstein".
CLSA's Russell Napier’s belief is that the shadow banking system is renormalizing. Really! Nobody is buying but insiders, without any volume at all. It’s become one of those obvious truths.
So I ask, what is “normal”? And I contend: There is no“normal” in a system of finance-capitalism operated by a small body of men for the self-serving interests of an international banking dynasty.
Hitler, according to the authors of Who Financed Hitler, “was one of the few politicians who correctly assessed the inflation [that he inherited] as a deliberate campaign to defraud the middle class of their savings.” And I contend that Ben Bernanke is on a deliberate central bank campaign to defraud America’s middle class of its savings. His attempt, by all appearances, is a deliberate policy to level producers and non-producers alike into a gray mass of mediocrity and state dependency, and to meld the separate national concentrations of financial power into a single global concentration.
This central bank maneuver is what the late Professor Carroll Quigley of Georgetown University called the final shift in the center of gravity of financial power, to where money prevails absolutely over politics. It is the triumph of the international financiers' view that what is good for their self-serving interests is good for all, with all consideration for markets and the people’s welfare excluded.
To be frank, central bankers are using this role worldwide to perpetrate Socialism as a power-concentrating process.
Ever since the international financiers’ 1913 coup d’etat in America, money has been the primary source of power around the globe. The transfer of America’s financial power to the private families who own the Fed has resulted in a continuous relationship of antagonism towards the populations of all nations, and in creating a century of conflict and tragedy heretofore unknown in man’s history.
Wall Street, as some say, fell into the hands of the international financiers like a ripe plum. But their real plum was in the realm of politics as practiced in the Western World, including the financing of party politics and thus central control of the government, the manipulation of public opinion through all forms of communication and education, plus the penetration, financing and manipulation of trade and public employee union movements.”
Today, IMO, the world is morphing into a fully integrated international system of high finance that already is capable of controlling world politics and the wealth of nations on an international basis. That, I’m afraid, will be the unfortunate and final consequence of “renormalizing,” should it occur.
Curious that Hitler's scapegoats control our banking, government agencies, media, key commitees and 1/3 of the Scotus. Coincidence or conspiracy ?.
So far, my longs are doing well.
I only invest in S & P 100 names that pay dividends, so I know I won't get hurt if they get clocked.
My average yield on my portfolio is about 4%, beats sitting in a money market fund doing nothing.
MO, T, VZ, DUK, KFT, SO, COP, JNJ, MRK, PFE
Believe it or not, my biggest winners so far since I went fully long in July have been VZ, MO, and SO which have the highest yields.
I also trade FCX, X, OIH, GDX short term, making lunch money on scalps here and there.
I pulled this off ' Fund my Mutual Fund'
Is this true?
The Major difference between the $VIX and VXX is this: The $VIX measures the premium the market as a whole is getting for options that are being sold. This is calculated automatically, like other indicies. Many large funds and firms like to hedge their overall market positions and found the VIX moved opposite to the market in general (a negative correlation). So, the exchange responded by creating a futures contract (VX) which was tied to the $VIX as it's underlying security. As the $VIX rose, the contract would have more value and it's price would rise. However, they added a feature to this contract not normally seen in the USA; they made the contract conform to European Style of contracts rather than the American Style of contracts. What difference does this make, you ask?
A European contract cannot be called away from the seller until the end of the month, while an American Style contract may be called away (assigned) before it's expiration date. While this sounds like a little detail, it has the effect of not moving prices in step with the $VIX on those futures contracts (VX). This gives the buyer and seller quite a bit more discretion in determining price for the duration of the contract, except during the last day or so of expiration. Only at expiration -settlement, does the price of the contract have to come close the $VIX index. (It's actually the first tick of the Wednesday after the Tuesday the contract expires, but that's too much detail). So, that explains why the VX futures contracts don't exactly track the $VIX. Now, why doesn't VXX track the $VIX?
Since the $VIX is tradeable only through the VX futures contract, an ETF/ETN must have an underlying security on which to trade, meaning something has to have a real value attached to it when creating a financial derivative product. So, the stock of the ETF VXX uses the VX contracts and it (the VXX) needs to track the price of the underlying. Hence the VXX is a proxy for the VX contract which approximates the $VIX like it's being held together with a mile long rubber band.
I hope this explains why you see the difference between the 4% upmove in the $VIX and the 0.8% down move in the VXX. You can explain it away as 'anticipation'. Buyers and sellers are anticipating what the contract price will be near expiration rather than what it will be tomorrow.
BTW: The VIX Options are tied to the VX contract, so, it doesn't offer any tighter relationship to the $VIX than VX.
Klatuu
Thanks for the info.
I assume there is no decay in the vxx, is there?
I'm waiting for a pro- to chime in, not sure if this is true ...
Just to clarify, it looks as though there might be some sort of decay or loss.
Googled it, and there was mention of a loss based on contract change overs or something like that.
Just goes to show, don't assume.
Ofcourse there is decay. Just look at the chart.
you stick your nose in other people's business, you know that.
you don't help, in the least.
Velo, I wasn't sure that vxx vs vix was like some sort of premium / discount, like on closed end funds.
i got to say something, seeing you and robo's breasts so close together, are they the same woman? guyz, i am so lost and confused, all i can do any more is look at your breasts. am i over the deep edge? and i am serious.
And is that Pinnochio's nose or the bird's genitals?
That's NOT a bird, it's Jiminy Cricket! :DD
*Smacks head*
Doh.
Don't think so. RoboTrader's avatar is a gal named "Lovely Vanessa" Her boobs are not as inflated as the other avatar's.
oh thanks, for clearing up those bo_ob details.
maybe i can sleep a little better tonight, knowing this.
Youre 'if you cant beat em, join em', well that makes you the same as Bernanke and Geithner and the rest of these rats, youre part of the problem. Hope you go down in flames with all the rest of them. I hope the crash comes like a thief in the night and you find theres no one at all to sell to.
Kudos, Robo. But you might have done a few clicks better in a Pimco TRF.
Where's the chick pics, dammit ??
That's a great strategy. I jumped in VZ and JNJ for the same reasons back in July. Been trading in and out of AAPL. Latest grab was at 240. Looks like I'll keep that one for a bit more time as it gets ready to finally break out.
Don't fight the big dogs pumping money and more money. Quite easy bet to be on their side.
Funny. I just sold 1,000 shares of VZ as a result of reading this article.
So, in other words you don't trade any of the other "winners" you've been posting endlessly since this new found vapor rally? What is the point? I don't mean to split hairs, but time to call a spade a spade.
As I said, your posts have previously been entertaining maybe we'll get back to that.
Just ignore it. It's the desperate crying of children. Don't fight the big dogs. Don't go against the fed. Don't don't don't. Their lifestyle is ending forcibly. So you have to expect some whining.
It all makes perfect sense to me. Money is made (no pun intended) by "selling on the way up and buying on the way down". If we are headed down the dumb money would be selling (check) and the smart money would be buying(check).
-profd
Anyone know if this jobs number will have the guesses in it like last week?
The numbers for August in, and were up .2%, just Exactly what they forecast.....
That's smokin!.
Jobs, hell, their still counting Poll takers.
IWC SA are est to rise 2K tom
I aint buying nuttin. It's a scam.
Fraud thats all i have to say
Who's Dic* is going to get caught in the Watergate, are 401k holders..........in the LARGE companies, all the Defense Ctrs, and associated groups.T.I., MicroSoft,Apple,Dell, etc,etc...........
They are bustin it 6 days a week, 10-14 hrs a day, and think they are doing good.
Going to watch their lifes savings go down the terlet,like a large BM.
They are clueless..........Poor SOB's.
Any Boomers still invested in this Market, deserve to get screwed.
How many times you gotta get shit on?, you lose 50% in a drop, and it takes 100% increase to get back to even.
And this will be the Granpappy of em all.
I am so glad so many have finally recognized the MC, Boy Wonder,in pulling the statists strings.
The rest are like Puppets...................
Send in the Clowns............
This is the great contrarian indicator, never buy anything the retail investor is buying. And the retail investor is buying cash, lots and lots of dollars, he's selling everything (which for him is almost all equities since only 7% of his net worth is in bonds and no one wants his house) and repositioning the asset to food, shelter, and 'the bills', whatever is left over goes immediately to CDs and money markets at ridiculous rates. He's not alone. Companies are in cash, plenty of institutions are in cash, everyone and their freaking grandmother is in cash. Obviously, cash is the wrong place to be. You'll break even in stocks over the long run, probably, and that *is* the American Dream, to break even. But if you ask me, cash is just like any other asset and can blow up spectacularly in a serious devaluation. Eventually everyone will pile into gold (bitchez) and we'll be able to hit ctrl-alt-delete on the system we have, and maybe do something sensible again. It really seems like this outcome is inevitable. I don't know when though, so I'm repositioning about $50K to a new SUV. I figure, if I have to own a depreciating asset, I might as well own one that depreciates a little slower than the dollars in my money market.
atta boy.
Finally someone thinking ahead. But you might as well buy used regardless. you can use the savings on gold or food.
Technicals mean nothing, fundamentals mean less.
Market is now discounting big growth in 1st half 2011. But fewer and fewer people believe that anymore, including the Fed itself (hence QElite).
They're ramping it for 2 reasons, one of which is ego. The other is to follow the monetarist precepts of Alan Greenspan and the Chicago School of Economics which dictate that the stock market "liquifies" the economy, gives a "wealth effect" and reflexively self-reinforces inflation. They're treating numbers, not the patient.
They're still stuck on the DOW Jones Industrial Average being the headline temperature reading on how the USA is doing economically. But let's think about that. How much of the original concept that heavy industry leads the US economy is still real? It's pretty much a joke. So is the idea that treating numbers is the same as treating the patient.
"they" can do what they want and you nor I will do anything about it except wait until it is unsustainable. Then we move in after and remove the bluebloods once and for all.
Wow, just think what will happen when all of that money realizes that FRNs are worthless in the new economy and all that money comes flooding back into the market.
That is the hyperinflationary collapse ZH keeps yelling about.
Remember, hyperinflation will screw the most number of people to reward the banks. That means people have to exit the market first before the up-crash happens....
The comments will often come from one of the two perspectives, 1. Stocks are way overvalued and 2. Don't fight the Fed. I think both are correct, it just depends on the timing. You can ride the Fed liquidity-fueled rallies, as long as you understand where they're going to end. When they end there is a huge amount of dumping all at once and that's when you get the mileage out of shorting. Usually there is an 'event' that causes the melt up to end. The rally is getting tired already when that 'event' happends. Typically there are several events, plus a build up of bad data and sentiment that has been ignored for awhile as the ramping continues. It's not fun to be on the wrong side of either phenomenons. That's why it's strictly a trader's market. You have to be extremely careful what you hold, short or long. It's possible to trade, you just have to be able to, for the most part, ignore a lot of the ingrained notions of why to buy or sell because they are not as relevant as all political issues and economic issues.
No time to get greedy! Eat the elephant a small bite at a time.
Market will continue to go up until we all throw in the towel and stop complaining. Once we are gone they will know there really is no one out there. Otherwise they think we are short and will continue to ramp the Market.
But, if everyone goes long and complains the Market is not going up, THEN we will see stocks tank. The Street always does the opposite of what people think. That is why they make Money. So, you want the Market to go down buy stocks.
Personally, I hope the cock-suckers who are painting this tape (i.e., the fuckin fed, et al) receive the following treatments:
(1) I hope their jaws are sheared away by faceless homunculi;
(2) I hope that they are forced to suckle from the 16 poisoned leathern teats of Gophahmet, the Whore of Betrayal, until they burst from an unwholesome engorgement of curdled bile;
(3) I hope they are hollowed out and used as prophylactics by thorn-cocked Gulbuth The Rampant enough being forced through a wire screen by the callused palms of Halcorym and then having their entrails wound onto a stick and fed to the toothless, foul-breathed swine of Gehenna.
All right, stop being so passive-agressive and tell us your real feelings! :D
ALL IN baby! 100% leverage in stocks, YTD + 10%, papa needs a new ipad...
GDX fine for bigger miners, GDXJ for smaller ones. But I believe both ETFs managed by Goldman...
Janus digs deep.
The Chinese are rapidly buying everything in sight that their U.S. dollar reserves can afford. Why? Because they KNOW that the purchasing power will be zero in short order. That is why U.S. stocks are rising: When cash is trash, ANYTHING is preferable.
Never underestimate the replacement power of equities within an inflationary spiral.
Yup, the POT bid is under the replacement cost of the assets. 6 potash mines, and the phosphate assets, simply could not be replaced for less than $50-$60B in construction costs, nevermind the value of the resource itself. Yet the current offer on the table is just over $40B.
Its bizarre. Physical real assets going for less than their present-day replacement cost, yet crap that can be cooked up in a Stanford or Harvard dorm room in a year goes for thousands of times its replacement cost (ie: Google, Facebook, etc.)
The boomers will not necessarily get out. Many of them do not understand and do not follow the markets. They go to their local Edward Jones rep who pats their hand and tells them they must invest for the long term and that everything is going to be just fine. Try to tell them otherwise and they repeat how wonderful their advisor is. They refuse to consider the possiblity that it is all going to hell and they'll be lucky to have 50% of what they started with. It's like looking over the abyss at their own mortality. They just can't handle it so they close their eyes and hope for the best, trusting, trusting, trusting. I have given up trying to talk about it.
The price of freedom is eternal vigilance. If you have no time or understanding to trade in and out of the stock markets yourself, YOU WILL lose most, if not all, yo' FRNs. End of discussion.
Once there's a melt up, everyone and their brother is saying melt up, melt up.. TV, the internet, everywhere there are people prognosticating about the market. It'll be no different this time. The melt-up doesn't continue on very long after that, otherwise you have a market going up in spite of the fact most all of the fundamentals are bad and at the same time everyone is saying that it is a melt up or worse (won't name names)..
Yes, I post a lot of parabolic charts, breakout plays etc.
But I don't really get involved in those high flyers, and I never chase hot stocks.
Just like to post them to show that the market seems like it is getting stronger, not weaker.
Yeah, I talk up a big game, but I'm pretty careful, and prefer to hit singles over and over, I never go for the home runs. I learned the hard way after getting shanked repeatedly by dryhumping those IBD Top 100 screamers.
Some of those are just too hot to handle.
Like this one:
You have really topped yourself with this one...
saved to desktop...