Stone McCarthy Sees Severe Economic Deterioration In April, And Q2, As A Result Of Japanese Supply Chain Destruction

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Fri, 04/15/2011 - 14:48 | 1173484 FOC 1183
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Ear canal bleeding has been renamed to "Birinyi's Syndrome"

Fri, 04/15/2011 - 17:40 | 1174302 spiral_eyes
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"as keynes so correctly showed, broken windows, destroyed nuclear power stations, and perforated eardrums are good for the economy because they circulate money and raise aggregate demand."


i guess this is what happens when you misperceive creative destruction as just pure fucken destruction.


Fri, 04/15/2011 - 14:48 | 1173485 Tense INDIAN
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Apple breaks important line support :

Fri, 04/15/2011 - 15:04 | 1173549 Id fight Gandhi
Id fight Gandhi's picture

So did google. Blew threw it in one day. It's bullish buy the dip.

NASDAQ up on the news.

Fri, 04/15/2011 - 14:51 | 1173490 The Axe
The Axe's picture

Computers control world financial markets...move on.

Fri, 04/15/2011 - 14:53 | 1173497 Robot Traders Mom
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Even with production dramatically dropping at Toyota, GM still can't flush their absurd inventories through dealer stuffing...

In an unrelated note on my son, Robot Tool, got out of the locker he was stuffed in, after school yesterday. He is smaller than the other kids so he gets picked on quite a bit. That and he looks like Michael Cera.


Fri, 04/15/2011 - 15:03 | 1173535 Id fight Gandhi
Id fight Gandhi's picture

Yeah trading in your old gas guzzler doesn't go well with $4 gas and selling it used don't get new buyers. No help with reasonably priced hybrids delayed from Japan and marked up.

Somehow this is all bullish. Tell me how.

Fri, 04/15/2011 - 15:38 | 1173683 SheepDog-One
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And dont forget, 'American' cars such as GM are full of Japanese parts too. Where does Apple expect to get all the parts for Chinese assembly? Japan trickles down to everything.

Fri, 04/15/2011 - 14:52 | 1173503 Cdad
Cdad's picture

Did Dianne Olick just say that Blight on America bank just layed off 1500 employees?  Did I hear that right?


Fri, 04/15/2011 - 15:10 | 1173543 Id fight Gandhi
Id fight Gandhi's picture

Yes it was news last night. It's bullish. Less demand for mortgages and they will focus on blah blah whatever. Buy BAC and profit.

Fri, 04/15/2011 - 15:42 | 1173719 SheepDog-One
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Less demand for mortgages means more demand for homeless jobless americans to purchase $9 burritos and $7 coffees, clean up with $75 BBY hand towels. 

Fri, 04/15/2011 - 14:56 | 1173507 bob_dabolina
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I could be wrong but I could see this being positive for someone, somewhere though haven't put any real weight  behind the thought.

For example, if the production/service for Toyota drops the demand might need to be picked up by Ford. Where is Ford going to get the parts for the cars with the supply disruption out of Japan? Well, that demand is going to need to be satisfied by supply from somewhere...maybe China, maybe Vietnam, who knows. But that could help those economies grow a little quicker.

There is going to be some kind of re balancing I would assume. I could be completely wrong who knows, it's just an idea.

Or some's Friday


Fri, 04/15/2011 - 15:03 | 1173532 TruthInSunshine
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Japanese Honor System - if Japanese company is producing high value, highly proprietary component, they will only allow another Japanese firm to substitute in for them, under any conditions. It will not matter if no Japanese substitute supplier can be located or able to fill in.

Fri, 04/15/2011 - 15:06 | 1173550 cossack55
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Counterfeit Morgans from China

Counterfeit Toyotas from VN

Fri, 04/15/2011 - 15:12 | 1173583 AG BCN
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maybe 30 years ago, but not now, it's possible a very small percentage of Ultra Nationalist CEO's could still be doing it.

Fri, 04/15/2011 - 15:08 | 1173556 AG BCN
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Could be good for the almost new Japanese car second hand market. I've worked in Automotive design for the past 14 years, the top level management is saying "get the parts from somewhere else" to which the engineers reply, "if only it was that easy"

Fri, 04/15/2011 - 16:21 | 1173920 citta vritti
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the advertising on my home team sports networks in NYC are all toyota, nissan, honda, etc., frequently sales (toyotathon!) to move inventory. If you can’t have the current year model, maybe it’ll help move those color tvs. 

Fri, 04/15/2011 - 16:23 | 1173948 Herman Strandsc...
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Could be good for the almost new Japanese car second hand market. I've worked in Automotive design for the past 14 years, the top level management is saying "get the parts from somewhere else" to which the engineers reply, "if only it was that easy"

Its called cannibalism. Like when you come down in the morning and someone has stolen the head off your new BMW.

Fri, 04/15/2011 - 16:38 | 1174003 AG BCN
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10 years ago you could do that.

Fri, 04/15/2011 - 14:54 | 1173513 aint no fortuna...
aint no fortunate son's picture

I'm sure this weakness will just be transitory...

Fri, 04/15/2011 - 14:54 | 1173514 Siggy
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Just got a call this morning from one our suppliers of Sony optical disks for medical. Told me that Sony decided to just close down a plant that was badly damaged and is not going to rebuild it. Get them somewhere else if you can, he said.

Fri, 04/15/2011 - 15:11 | 1173572 magpie
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Germany's "Got Talent" is having problems with the lack of recording media from Japan.

Not a tragedy IMHO

Fri, 04/15/2011 - 16:37 | 1173996 redguard
redguard's picture

As dry as the desert, good +1

Fri, 04/15/2011 - 16:48 | 1174062 knukles
knukles's picture

That's what they get for throwing away all those old Victrola marching song cylinders.

Fri, 04/15/2011 - 17:00 | 1174099 redguard
redguard's picture

As dry as the desert, good +1

Fri, 04/15/2011 - 16:58 | 1174104 redguard
redguard's picture

As dry as the desert, good +1

Fri, 04/15/2011 - 19:53 | 1174740 Moe Howard
Moe Howard's picture

Recording media is yesterday. Straight to SSD beatchez.

Sat, 04/16/2011 - 04:46 | 1175481 Pondmaster
Pondmaster's picture

SSD and U.S. programmable chip foundries - bit-cheez

Fri, 04/15/2011 - 14:59 | 1173520 Id fight Gandhi
Id fight Gandhi's picture

Best we use safe havens like Netflix and chipole.

I heard it on cnbc so it must be true. 1500 s&p this year no matter what.

Gold and silver, those are just speculation.

Fri, 04/15/2011 - 14:57 | 1173522 TruthInSunshine
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The plant and shop floor blue collar superintendent guys down in Indiana (Subaru/Toyota), Ohio (Honda), Kentucky (Toyota), Tennessee (Nissan) aren't looking forward to spreading the news of total lack of inventory of critical components to the good ole' boys.

I will not be surprised to see 500k to 800k units taken out of the production pipeline just in the U.S. (maybe 2 million globally?) by end of FY11 - and then, what then?

A crushing economic event at a time when we can least afford it. Major shock waves.

Fri, 04/15/2011 - 15:06 | 1173559 Long-John-Silver
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Don't forget replacement parts. I have visions of small home shops gearing up to make or rebuild now unavailable replacement parts.

Fri, 04/15/2011 - 15:10 | 1173567 cossack55
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We gave them all those great TIFs and other deferrals to open their "send them the parts and let the stupid slaves try to put them together" assembly plants in the midwest.  And...and... our mayors and governors and everybody was flying over there and spending two weeks with hookers and drugs to get more of these great "slave pretend work places" so we the people would not freakin' hang them from the light poles. Gee.

Fri, 04/15/2011 - 15:03 | 1173529 Hephasteus
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Ya but we are missing the real tragedy here. In those maiden lane other assets the fed holds. It's a bunch of yellow cake uranium which is now about as valuable as a health and beauty product that melts your face, pisses off the citizens and turns community organizers into swat team assemblers.

I forget how many pounds of yellow cake uranium Lehman had on the books it's been scrubbed from web.

Fri, 04/15/2011 - 15:01 | 1173538 Pepe
Pepe's picture

Outstanding fact gathering job, as usual. The main problem is that obviously the market is dissociated from the facts, and the predictions can only be based in withcraft,voodoo,the language of thiefs and truhans, shysters, swindlers,crooks, jesters and bufoons. The likes of Bernanke,Geithner,Blankfein,Summers,old man Greenspan, paulson,etc. And of course whoever is the master puppeteer for whom I only wish he or she may gather from the universe what he or she has given.

Fri, 04/15/2011 - 15:09 | 1173563 Id fight Gandhi
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VIX at 2007 levels as Japanese nuclear holocaust, defaulting eurozone countries, Mena wars and riots and big earnings misses from BAC, AA, GOOG are embraced and people buy stocks.

Nothing will ever stop this bull market.

Fri, 04/15/2011 - 15:09 | 1173564 JailBank
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How much will the FED need to print to boost GM stock prices once the parts come up short and vehicle production comes to a near hault?

Fri, 04/15/2011 - 15:14 | 1173581 cossack55
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Rather than "parts come up short and vehicle", I think they have a larger problem with "parts come off vehicle while driving".

Fri, 04/15/2011 - 16:55 | 1174091 knukles
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Hold on, that's not fair.  It snowed in parts Arkansas last night so that suff about them Japanese don't count no more than my pappy's one tooth.

Fri, 04/15/2011 - 15:11 | 1173573 DoctoRx
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Weak GDP bullish for gold

Fri, 04/15/2011 - 15:18 | 1173595 virgilcaine
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ZH coverage of GOOG ?  crickets..chrp


-$ 45 or 8%

Fri, 04/15/2011 - 15:40 | 1173695 SheepDog-One
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Damn...well no problem, promptly swept under the rug.

Fri, 04/15/2011 - 19:57 | 1174754 Moe Howard
Moe Howard's picture

Speaking of chrp... GM closed at 30.24 - 14 cents over the all time low since this issue. I guess those randomly disconnecting steering wheels haven't caught the public fancy as much as Toyota's random acceleration feature.

Fri, 04/15/2011 - 15:20 | 1173605 tiger7905
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Thoughts on how the likely upcoming Belarus devaluation may be different than if/when something similar happens in North America.

Fri, 04/15/2011 - 22:40 | 1175153 whatsinaname
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thats Belarus (and Ukraine) still paying for Chernobyl. Belarus still suffers 25 years later.

Fri, 04/15/2011 - 15:24 | 1173627 virgilcaine
virgilcaine's picture

I feel a red close coming on..

Fri, 04/15/2011 - 15:32 | 1173666 treemagnet
treemagnet's picture

According to the prophecy, red closes are not acceptable. 

Fri, 04/15/2011 - 15:40 | 1173703 SheepDog-One
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Maybe for fantasyland equities, certainly not for gold its up $16. Oil busting thru its recent top too.

Fri, 04/15/2011 - 15:22 | 1173629 mt paul
mt paul's picture


nutz and bolts...

honorable hedge bytches

Fri, 04/15/2011 - 15:31 | 1173659 Yardfarmer
Yardfarmer's picture

BOJ now an ATM for the Federal Reserve. trillions of yen paper transferred to FRNs. Japs now net sellers of T-bills. shadow global QE3 in place as they "end" QE2

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