Strategic Alpha Macro Update

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Tue, 04/05/2011 - 20:59 | 1139339 Id fight Gandhi
Id fight Gandhi's picture

I see the Dow dropping 2000 points and oil crashing back later this year if they don't wage more wars.

Tue, 04/05/2011 - 21:06 | 1139350 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

USD/JPY has finished repatriation. There are massive offers all through 86. I like this GBP trade. GBP is the proxy on YEN right now. Look at the the moves in EUR/JPY. Look at the moves in Cable. Any how I'm up 12 positions. Time to start parking some profits in GBP/JPY. I won't touch AUD/USD right now. Maybe a hedge in EUR/GBP.

Tue, 04/05/2011 - 21:04 | 1139351 bob_dabolina
bob_dabolina's picture

I heard the most hilarious idea today.

It goes like this:

The Bernank is going to raise rates and assume asset purchases.

<sigh> as much as it doesn't make sense it will probably happen.

Tue, 04/05/2011 - 21:49 | 1139453 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

Looks like all the Junk is out today BD. You will see it in the discount or overnight window as a test, like last time. Best wishes.

Tue, 04/05/2011 - 21:24 | 1139389 blindman
blindman's picture

blah .....

qe 3 is already priced in.  qe 4 is already priced in.

qe 5 is already priced in.  ........

you're either in or you're out of the qe thing.

ben is in until the heist is complete and so

will everyone else be or they will be dead.  the bankers

have the populations on the ground and they will not

stop kicking the ribs till the breathing stops.  this is,

after all, their global business model.  no? 

Tue, 04/05/2011 - 21:50 | 1139458 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

QE is done! The Fed knows they need to tighten supply.

Tue, 04/05/2011 - 22:20 | 1139517 I think I need ...
I think I need to buy a gun's picture

Yeah QE is done since QE3 would collapse the dollar why not just announce gold revaluation to suck that debt away and say good bye to foreign oil and if that fails the restart QE under a new name......its over every way. Gas is going straight to 8 dollars a gallon regardless if a barrel is 100 or 300 dollars a barrel.

Tue, 04/05/2011 - 22:21 | 1139520 I think I need ...
I think I need to buy a gun's picture

By the way obama is having a town hall meeting via facebook april 20th whats that about?

Wed, 04/06/2011 - 00:23 | 1139761 TBT or not TBT
TBT or not TBT's picture

re-election.  He is still bent on "fundamentally transforming the United States of America"

Wed, 04/06/2011 - 00:48 | 1139801 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

I found my James bond. This gentleman is the (prodigy) of a much higher source. Obamma is just the (Junxt) of a much older order! I have my sights set higher!

Wed, 04/06/2011 - 01:32 | 1139862 blindman
blindman's picture

if swords could be turned to plowshares....

"They will beat their swords into plowshares and their spears into pruning hooks. Nation will not take up sword against nation, nor will they train for war anymore.Isaiah 2:4 & Micah 4:3 "

if this then they could do without qe^*.  but....

they don't have the heart.  leaders.  and what of those who follow?

slavery

imo

Wed, 04/06/2011 - 01:48 | 1139875 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

Square your sword.

Wed, 04/06/2011 - 02:18 | 1139907 blindman
blindman's picture

never

Tue, 04/05/2011 - 21:27 | 1139396 Everyman
Everyman's picture

Most analysts just look at the ISM and other supply data but Bernanke has got to make sure the economy can survive without his daily liquidity gift.

This is plain stupid analysis.  The economy has GOTTEN WORSE because of Bernanke.  It is NOT SURVIVING with QE is is getting sicker.  What kind of analysis would lead ANYONE to make the above quote???

The real issue is that Bennie the Prick, has only inflated stock values and shifted the crap on banks balance scheet to AMERICAN TAXPAYERS.  It does not benefit the economy, it benefit asshole banker criminals.  They all should be shot in the head.

 

Tue, 04/05/2011 - 21:33 | 1139411 Global Hunter
Global Hunter's picture

whoa next thing you'll be telling me the sicker it gets the worse the pay back is gona have to be.

Tue, 04/05/2011 - 21:38 | 1139429 Breaker
Breaker's picture

"It does not benefit the economy, it benefit asshole banker criminals."

Well, to be fair, it also benefits congress and the administration big time. They are able to keep running huge deficits with no immediate interest rate consequences and to pretend the bubble will never pop. Politicians regard it as a very good thing to be able to spend lots of money buying votes when the consequences of the spending (other than votes) won't be felt until the after the next election. Eventually, that runs out. But in the meantime, they'll keep spending in DC as long as the Fed keeps funding the crack and hookers.

Tue, 04/05/2011 - 22:33 | 1139544 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

those "little banks" kept failing AFTER the bailout of the richest people on earth--i agree.  i will say this "when i hear stories of neutron beams" it puts QE into perspective.  I'd rather have QE than neutron beams.  As chef said in Apocalypse Now "just say when on the airstrike" upon actually "meeting the Colonel in person."  And you may consider this a reference to K-Daff.

Tue, 04/05/2011 - 21:28 | 1139401 NOTW777
NOTW777's picture

when does cnbc do a gold and silver special with mr. kass

Tue, 04/05/2011 - 21:38 | 1139409 FLUSA.com
FLUSA.com's picture

A play on Joan Osbournes "What if God was one of us?"

What if Bernanke was one of us
Just a poor slob like one of us
Just a stranger on the bus
      (because the car was reposesed)
Trying to pay for his home       (since it is in foreclosure)

If Bernanke had a soul what would it look like
And would you want to see
If seeing meant that you would have to believe
In things like fiat money and in too big to fail and in printing money and all the talking heads CNBC

What if Bernanke was one of us
Just a slob like one of us
Just a stranger on the bus
Trying to pay for his home
He's trying to pay for his home
Back up to Capital Hill all alone
Nobody calling on the phone
Except for the Obama who's in Rome 
(because the radiation is floating over from Japan and he don't play that)

&amp;lt;img src="http://b.scorecardresearch.com/p?c1=8&amp;amp;c2=2102&amp;amp;c3=283&amp..." /&amp;gt;
Tue, 04/05/2011 - 21:37 | 1139420 AN0NYM0US
AN0NYM0US's picture

OT

if you have had any tainted seafood recently this may help

 

Debbie Wasserman Schultz picked as Democratic National Committee chair  http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0411/52605.html#ixzz1IiMKzxQ7
Tue, 04/05/2011 - 21:48 | 1139455 Still Life Living
Still Life Living's picture

Is the government shutdown just a way for the financial markets to hide thier problems for another few weeks?

Tue, 04/05/2011 - 21:51 | 1139461 franzpick
franzpick's picture

"...time is running out for a decision on Q/E..."

TD: Time is certainly running out alright, on the worldwide credit-collapse, but an announcement tomorrow of a June QE3 resumption would have what beneficial effect...?

Tue, 04/05/2011 - 22:02 | 1139478 alien-IQ
alien-IQ's picture

It would serve to accomplish it's original goals:

To further enrich those who collapsed the economy.

To kick the can of reality even further down the road.

To create the illusion that the insolvent banks are solvent.

To completely devalue the USD.

It's simply a continuation of one of the greatest wealth transfers (theft?) the world has ever seen...The transfer, of course, is from the bottom to the top.

Wed, 04/06/2011 - 00:19 | 1139747 Broker NotBroke
Broker NotBroke's picture

What happens in a worldwide credit-collapse? People lose their jobs? Unemployed people don't make money, no I think we'll keep it going for a long while. See how long it takes for people to be ok with a new, worse, level of "well, that's life".

 

Shouldn't take more than 2 generations...

Tue, 04/05/2011 - 21:59 | 1139472 alien-IQ
alien-IQ's picture

"Bernanke has got to make sure the economy can survive without his daily liquidity gift."

That statement should be interpreted to mean "QE has been a failure and there is no real improvement in the economy".

The only thing that QE has accomplished, aside from make some fabulously wealthy people even more fabulously wealthy, is crank up the prices of everything the average person consumes on a daily basis at a time when wages are stagnant and/or declining, unemployment is a nightmare and home values keep plummeting.

 

At what point do we move on from this failed policy? When it's too late?

 

Tue, 04/05/2011 - 22:14 | 1139504 Everyman
Everyman's picture

You made the point so much better than I did. Well Done!

Tue, 04/05/2011 - 22:31 | 1139542 Dr. Porkchop
Dr. Porkchop's picture

His daily liquidity gift is better suited for the toilet.

Wed, 04/06/2011 - 01:50 | 1139877 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

Forge your Silver!

Tue, 04/05/2011 - 22:01 | 1139476 JoeSexPack
JoeSexPack's picture

Believe QE's end when you see evidence:

When stocks drop from POMO's end, when states & cities default from an end to Fed guarantees of bond sales, when GM & Chrysler fold. When the Euro's buy their bonds with printed cash, when the Yen rises to the dollar, when Treasury auctions go begging, when the Fed's primary dealers report losses, when JPM's silver suppression folds, when a TBTF actually fails.

The Fed tells only what they want, & nothing stops them from printing $trillions per day & lying to hide it.

They are a financial mafia in control of DC.

Tue, 04/05/2011 - 23:10 | 1139630 malusDiaz
malusDiaz's picture

GM & Chrysler will never 'FAIL', they feed the MIC.

Tue, 04/05/2011 - 22:04 | 1139479 Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

Very surprised to hear Cramer send out a distress call today. Good for him on IMF warning. Let's hope he's sincere & not acting like a assclown.

5.7+ million viewers think alike. winks - The Fibonacci in Lateralus

Tool- Lateralus

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EDlC7oG_2W4

 

Tue, 04/05/2011 - 22:11 | 1139499 Id fight Gandhi
Id fight Gandhi's picture

His anus could be a circus

Tue, 04/05/2011 - 23:19 | 1139651 Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

Looks like Cramer read my post & junked me. Do you mean a clown car or flea circus? We can't shutdown taxpayer funded revenue services. The fleecing must continue by supporting Ponzi revenue streams.

Tue, 04/05/2011 - 22:25 | 1139524 Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

BTW.. I use to post this video on MW spanning a course overtime. Would always ask posters for feedback & the interpretation, no one ever understood the blatant content. This grand finale is inching forward and precisely on schedule.

For your viewing pleasure.

Ministry Messiah

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EgMSe_0o9Bo

Q: What do ZH posters see in puzzling vision created so long ago?

Tue, 04/05/2011 - 22:37 | 1139553 tahoebumsmith
tahoebumsmith's picture

QE is the big circle jerk that has been funding our deficit. If Bernanke pulls out, who's going to buy the debt? The primary dealers will bail because their purchases won't be backstopped by the FED and they will no longer have their 3 week flip that bond revenue. He has created a ponzi scheme that has allowed for our government to continue it's irresponsible spending. We need to take the pill and let the house of cards fall, until then we will continue to be held hostage by the CRONIES and Main St. and small businesses will continue their decent into the abyss. 

Tue, 04/05/2011 - 22:51 | 1139595 Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

So is Ben reinforcing to the public that he is wearing a condom or is he going to pull out in time without protection? Hoping for the best outcome merely depends on lies cited prior to sexual intercourse.

Tue, 04/05/2011 - 23:00 | 1139612 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

Alpha this. What can't go down,must go up! What can't go up must go down! Edit the DXY it's finding a bottom short term.

Tue, 04/05/2011 - 23:17 | 1139649 tek77blu
tek77blu's picture

We will have QE to infinity, and each QE only mean a higher floor for Gold and Silver: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L_oh5ke2Cf8

Tue, 04/05/2011 - 23:40 | 1139682 bankonzhongguo
bankonzhongguo's picture

Since there is no open discussion about QE3, then there will be QE3.  Its free money.  Who says no to free money?

The first step is to let QE2 end and then crash the markets.  A big, 'I told ya so.'

Then come back with some ludicrous QE3 plan to purchase whatever assets the banks have and get some more 'get out of jail free cards.'  Of course the coup de grace is to compel the Congress to "sell" massive land tracts and leases to development companies.banks - for the very money the FED has ordered into the "market." In order to make Amerika more energy independent.  Energy Policy = Obama-watts.

What is happening in Amerika is no different that what has happened in countless developing nations since western colonialism.  We are being colonized by Corporations. Coming home to roost.

There is another 20 months of mayhem before the next election.  These guys are just doubling their bets after losing each spin of the roulette wheel - hoping that just one time they will win and call it a night to break even and not have their kneecaps broken by the bookies (us) that staked them.

 

Wed, 04/06/2011 - 08:21 | 1140208 TaxSlave
TaxSlave's picture

Land tracts?

How about all those homes that Fannie and Freddie OWN now, bought with paper that sells your future labor?

Wed, 04/06/2011 - 00:50 | 1139804 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

There are no Gambling Knomes out to get you. You need to grow up!

Wed, 04/06/2011 - 01:02 | 1139825 jkruffin
jkruffin's picture

QE is not sustaining or supporting the economy at all, it is only sustaining Wall Street crooks.  There is nothing for Bernanke to be sure of, his policy has failed, and done so miserably.  No matter how many QE's he does, when the money is only going to the bankers and not getting to the people, it's just gonna get worse and worse. The money can't get to the people because they no longer qualify for loans. Duh....Benny Bubbles is not very smart.

The only thing sustaining the economy these past 2-3 months has been massive tax return issuance from all the credits offered. All that money is now gone, guaranteed. Those smart enough to save it, surely are not stock market participants, and they are not going to spend it.

This economy and market are a sham, and they will not be fixed until both crash and a normal recovery is allowed, and not a forced intervention.

Wed, 04/06/2011 - 04:24 | 1139987 HubbleBubbleBen...
HubbleBubbleBenLovesTrouble's picture

Can't follow SA's arguments of rising inflation threats around the US but not in the US itself. Like Michael Steinhart's remark....US thinks it's in a clear blue lagoon while around them the storms are picking up....total ignorance...

Wed, 04/06/2011 - 07:31 | 1140081 XPolemic
XPolemic's picture

OK, question:

Today there are 44.2 million Americans on food stamps, or 14.3% of the US population!

I Am Not An American, so my understanding of the NSP is a little hazy. Can children (minors) be on food stamps? Because if not, that 44.2 million Americans would represent ~29% of the working population.

Which probably means that unemployment + underemployment = roughly 29%

Looks like the great depression is here already.

Thu, 04/07/2011 - 01:05 | 1144291 Hook Line and S...
Hook Line and Sphincter's picture

I am of the opinion that its high time that this 44.2 million people number on food stamps have some sort of heuristics or birth/death like adjustment made immediately.

  1. We can effectively lower the # people on food stamps by instituting a weight quotient. Each person on food stamps will be required to report their weight. Non compliance will err in the 80-96 lb category (.6 of a person). Those who weigh less eat less, and therefore shouldn't be counted as whole persons.
  2. Also, it can be assumed that since those on food stamps will eat less, each month we can lower their weight by a mandatory 3%. We assume that a monthly decrease of 1-2% of all individuals who use food stamps are fraudulent claims.
  3. We integrate a component that subtracts food stamps participants by using projected deaths that aren't yet or ever reported. Say...1.5% per month reduction. We know this must be the case because of the nature of GMO food intake, HFCornSyrup intake, and Vice products purchased with said stamps.

These prompt and effective revisions would make me feel much better.

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