Stratfor On Japan, the Persian Gulf and Energy

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Tue, 03/15/2011 - 15:45 | 1056944 The Axe
The Axe's picture

Not in the 25 years that I have been trading have I seen a market so broken from reality then this one, and so controlled by the COMPUTER..and the FED.

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 15:51 | 1056962 flattrader
flattrader's picture

Agreed...and the last three trading sessions even more so.

8 mins. to green close on SNP.

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 17:17 | 1057269 asteroids
asteroids's picture

Thousands dead. Billions in damages. Potential catastrophe around the corner and the $IWM yawns. Closes down less than 1%. It's evil and immoral.

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 17:52 | 1057410 clymer
clymer's picture

 

Let's just all pray (it's just a figure of speech for you atheists), that in addition to the safety and security of the survivors of this tragedy, that this ushers in a new and unprecedented global effort to get out from under the thumb of the energy monopoly that uses the Heinz Kissinger methodology of controlling nations with oil, and develop a new direction - hydrogen, zero-point, cold-fusion, charge clusters - anything new that will change the global power balance away from the dinosaur plutocracy, and toward a new age of enlightenment.

 

A guy can hope some good comes out of this..

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 18:27 | 1057565 alien-IQ
alien-IQ's picture

from what I've read, Thorium seems to have great potential and Nuclear plants can be retrofit to run on it.

Of course, I'm not a scientist (but I did play one on TV once...so I've got that going for me).

Some more information on Thorium here:
http://energyfromthorium.com/

and here:
http://www.popsci.com/technology/article/2010-08/thorium-reactors-could-...

check it out. it's very interesting stuff.

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 20:55 | 1058182 New_Meat
New_Meat's picture

a-IQ: thorium not even in serious consideration.  That means huge investments in RnD, lots of type testing, scale up, etc.  That is in the like 30+ years range for practicality. - Ned

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 18:39 | 1057616 A Texan
A Texan's picture

While Stratfor can be dead wrong on some things, they are correct here on the Japanese insecurity regarding energy.   They are insecure because they should be - nature was not kind to them.

Sooooo, what do you do about the energy situation if you're the Japanese leadership?   Press on, just more intelligently.  The nuke stations in trouble were built in the '70s, and technology has moved way beyond that by now (much of it because of Japanese innovations).  Japan should move whole hog into 2 areas of nuclear:  1)  Pebble bed reactors, which CAN'T have a meltdown and CAN'T spew radioactivity all over the place; and 2)  Thorium reactors - similarly, they cannot have some of those same problems, plus thorium has the added advantage of being extremely plentiful.  In fact, the coal that Japan buys has more energy in it in the form of thorium than it does as coal - heck, even the coal ash has thorium in it.

Aside from that, they need to retrofit some of the existing plants with failsafe backup systems that depend on things that don't go out when the electricity fails or something gets wet - like gravity.  I'm sure that all of the engineers in Japan can design an amazing system in a very short time.

Heck, they might even get into pebble beds and thorium reactors to the extent that they become leaders and can export them to backwards nations ... like the US.

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 19:49 | 1057893 JR
JR's picture

Perhaps that is why in his book, The Next 100 Years, Friedman believes that Japan will ally with Turkey, for the oil, and that the great crisis of the mid-21st century will be a war between the U.S. and a Turkish-Japanese alliance.

Maybe that also means we lose. After all, he says the great powers of the future are Japan, Turkey, Mexico and Poland.  Maybe by then the U.S. will simply be Amexico.

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 21:11 | 1058284 DeeDeeTwo
DeeDeeTwo's picture

Gonna live forever, baby?

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 15:52 | 1056969 alien-IQ
alien-IQ's picture

I think you'd have a hard time finding many people here on ZH that would disagree with your statement. Even the most blindly bullish must be well aware of the fact that they are, in fact, participating in a massive fraud with no correlation to reality.

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 16:33 | 1057124 e_goldstein
e_goldstein's picture

stfu& just btfd.

;-)

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 15:54 | 1056989 A Man without Q...
A Man without Qualities's picture

The entire system is insolvent, so once the markets start to price in reality, it will fall apart very fast. This market will continue to ignore all events, no matter how absurd it may seem, until one day, everything finally snaps. But, I've got to admit, today is something special.

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 16:04 | 1057023 the not so migh...
the not so mighty maximiza's picture

that's it really, the market must ignore reality in order too still exist.   Institutions that should have gone bankrupt still exist and are larger and more powerful with the same incompetent leadership.   No arrests prove there is no longer any reality.

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 16:08 | 1057040 A Man without Q...
A Man without Qualities's picture

The corporations that became powerful through making large profits, now use this power to hide the fact this is no longer the case...

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 16:17 | 1057074 terryg999
terryg999's picture

That's for sure.  I had to re-learn how to make money in this crazy market.

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 16:19 | 1057085 M2Market
M2Market's picture

Totally... Just check the US equity day session's open to close for the last three days.... lower open, higher close, followed by even lower open, higher close, and so on.  This market is rigged to the core, courtesy of the Chairman B. There is talk of "fundamental" for the US equities... Hell, the only fundamental that matters is how much money will be printed. 

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 15:50 | 1056959 99er
99er's picture

COMP

Like love. Once lost....

http://www.zerohedge.com/forum/99er-charts-0

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 15:50 | 1056960 Groty
Groty's picture

Buy 'em boys!  You'll never get 'em cheaper than they are today!  If only a major asteroid would hit, we'd be in a super bull cycle!

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 15:50 | 1056963 Motorhead
Motorhead's picture

OT - is it just me, or is the stock market "going up" in the afternoon after its morning constitutional dump the past 2-3 days?

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 15:54 | 1056981 flattrader
flattrader's picture

mid morning ramp o rama has moved to mid afternoon ramp o rama.

They have to change it up a little every now and then.

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 17:07 | 1057217 Hacksaw
Hacksaw's picture

@ Motorhead

Like the nic

 

We live on borrowed time

Hope turned to dust

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O02Gnzn5JDY

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 15:53 | 1056975 azengrcat
azengrcat's picture

They bought the Derp

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 15:52 | 1056976 24KGOLD FOIL HAT
24KGOLD FOIL HAT's picture

Japans actions do not make sense.  They have not been in the best interest of Japan.  Why would a fiscally very conservative nation take on 200% of GDP in govt debt?  Their overlords profited greatly from that and other actions.  Who exactly their overlords are I dont know but can take a few educated guesses.

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 16:37 | 1057139 Hacksaw
Hacksaw's picture

This is yet more evidence that the central bankers and others directing policy place the interests of the financial sector at the centre of their concerns. For the financial industry, a modest rise in the inflation rate would genuinely be bad news, reducing the value of their assets and the real value of their interest income. In order to ensure that the major banks of the world do not have to deal with this situation, the central banks are prepared to force tens of millions of people to remain out of work.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/cifamerica/2011/mar/15/economics...

 


Tue, 03/15/2011 - 17:32 | 1057266 EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

Because the alternative was to go through a severe recession.

And who wants one of those on their watch? GWBush? Tony Blair (2003)? Gordon Brown (2008)?

The Tories took the UK through a recession in the 90'es, and they get absolutely slaughtered for it in the socialist press, who actually believe Gordon Brown solved the financial crisis back in 2008.

No-one considers the long term, because they might not be around by then if they do.

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 15:53 | 1056978 Michael
Michael's picture

Will industries serviced by Japanese monopoly's lead to inventory reductions worldwide do to parts and materials shortages?

How is this going to be priced in? Toyota is already cutting overtime at US plants to conserve parts.

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 15:53 | 1056984 IrrationalMan
IrrationalMan's picture

only 7 more points till breakeven on the ES

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 15:59 | 1056997 Financial_Guard...
Financial_Guardian_Angel's picture

IMO this all hinges on what happens over the next week or so to the reactors. If the situation goes south and a hole is opened to hell, George will be right and the psyche in the land of the rising sun will be destroyed for a long time. If ther reactors are stabilized, then I see this as a victory for the people. They will still build and use nuke power because they have no choice. They will just need to be smarter about it...

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 16:40 | 1057149 velobabe
Tue, 03/15/2011 - 15:58 | 1057001 JR
JR's picture

Maybe this report is properly sourced and maybe it isn’t. For me, I’m unable to look at it without bias because of Stratfor’s reputation.  And I’m hopeful ZH can find another, more reliable source for critical events such as this instead of pro-war, neocon George Friedman..

Here’s a little of what I remember of Stratfor bias:

Stratfor has argued that, despite their rhetoric, Arab regimes really support Israel’s punitive invasion of the Gaza strip that began in late 2008 and inflicted many civilian casualties. Israel’s action was condemned by a UN report for war crimes and crimes against humanity; the Stratfor article implies the invasion was not a war crime.

Among Friedman’s predictions:  America’s south western states will secede and join Mexico. This move toward a breakup of America will be brought about, according to Friedman, by large scale Mexican immigration to the region, the rising economic power of Mexico, and Mexico’s festering resentment over the U.S. conquest of its territory.

Stratfor’s  Wikipedia entry describes a close working relationship with the U.S. military; his private intelligence corporation is called “The Shadow CIA” by Barron’s.

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 16:20 | 1057092 SDRII
SDRII's picture

+10 Take a look back to the experiment when George posted a blog. He pulled it shortly as it was a disaster. his analysis on the economic situation was absent. His analysis of the NIE was beyond dismal. No credibility.

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 16:28 | 1057110 Ruffcut
Ruffcut's picture

Thanks JR for some background on Strat's cred.

Only had been reading their spew for a couple weeks.

Oh well, as it goes, never believe what you read and only half of what you see.

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 16:31 | 1057116 Misean
Misean's picture

Yeah...I was just gonna ask that he give a hat tip to Dr. Phil for his poigniant analysis of Japan.

Drek.

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 17:06 | 1057235 Henry Chinaski
Henry Chinaski's picture

Not exactly actionable intel here, but it sorta explains why the Japanese are so polite.

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 17:14 | 1057241 Henry Chinaski
Henry Chinaski's picture

dp

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 17:13 | 1057256 Ahmeexnal
Ahmeexnal's picture

When the silver Amero/SuperPeso arrives, and the USD is in full hyperinflationary hell, where do you believe a nation whose major allegiance is to money will prefer to pay their taxes?

Combine that with the fact that the rest of the US will treat soutwesterners as leppers when the radioactive clouds turn prime real estate into cesspool priced assets.

Son, we ain't seen nothin yet.

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 16:02 | 1057008 Mad Max
Mad Max's picture

Very interesting analysis.

So, from this, does Japan go forward (as it were) with the national psychology of a dying cripple, which is where they were very slowly heading anyway, or does this turn them around into a still crippled but resurgent militant, much like Putin's Russia?

And of course, neither option is good for the US, but then hardly any recent development has been positive for the US.

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 16:19 | 1057086 Vampyroteuthis ...
Vampyroteuthis infernalis's picture

Mad Max, you ask a very relevant question. I do not think that Japan will go militant for the simple reason they have an ageing population. Grandpa does not make a good soldier.

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 17:19 | 1057278 Ahmeexnal
Ahmeexnal's picture

An army of Mazinger-Z bots remotely controlled by an army of elderly japanese will beat the crap out of any army of steroid overdosed, 6-hour a day gym, don't ask don't tell kneepad wearing, young buff metrosexual elite commandos.

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 16:04 | 1057021 IrrationalMan
IrrationalMan's picture

the overnight volume vs the regular hours volume of the es is rediculous.  Without the 3:59 and 9:30 bar the highest volume was around 5:30 in the morning. 

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 16:04 | 1057024 americanspirit
americanspirit's picture

Gotta keep those 401Ks pumped or folks might start thinking something's wrong. Uncle Ben's just doing his patriotic duty. Give the guy a break. I mean, if people actually realized what was happening to them even TPTB couldn't keep the lid on. 401k up - all's good. Let's do McDonalds tonite kids.

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 16:25 | 1057098 Tail Dogging The Wag
Tail Dogging The Wag's picture

I feel sorry for anyone with a 401K plan or ETF's, or anything in paper. There is no credibility anymore, yet, they still hang on.

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 16:09 | 1057041 paramitas
paramitas's picture

every thing is up in the air right now,(radioactively speaking) but in the long term the politics/people will fall into the Chinese sphere of influence.

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 16:13 | 1057051 Buckaroo Banzai
Buckaroo Banzai's picture

Am I the only one here who doesn't trust STRATFOR?

Example: "Rather than allow a recession to force a wave of bankruptcies and unemployment, the Japanese sought to maintain their tradition of lifetime employment."

If STRATFOR was honest, here's the way it SHOULD have read: "Rather than allow a recession to force a wave of bankruptcies and failed banks, the Japanese sought to maintain their tradition of crony capitalism and TBTF banks, corporations, and keiretsus."

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 16:27 | 1057105 samsara
samsara's picture

Yes,  Think of them as a CFR/CIA News Agency. 

They are an important read, like reading CFR articles as long as you factor for the slant to get the true meaning....

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 16:16 | 1057067 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

Who cares anymore about the markets. It's all nationalized and without any future real div. returns to cling on.

 

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 16:17 | 1057069 Jim in MN
Jim in MN's picture

More VBN from NHK: Unit 4 storage pool getting no remediation/cooling at all

TEPCO: Spraying water from air "difficult"

Tokyo Electric Power has found it difficult to spray water from a helicopter to cool down a storage pool for spent nuclear fuel inside the No.4 reactor at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant.

The reactor was undergoing an inspection when the quake occurred. The firm says the temperature of the storage pool for spent nuclear fuel was 84 degrees Celsius on Monday morning, more than double the normal level. More recent temperatures are not available due to a technical failure.

On Tuesday morning, an explosion was heard and the roof of the building that houses the No.4 reactor was damaged. Tokyo Electric Power, the operator of the plant, says it appears a lack of coolant caused the fuel rods to be exposed, adding that a hydrogen explosion might have occurred.
If the reactor can't be cooled, the fuel rods may emit hydrogen or melt down. Tokyo Electric Power considering pouring water onto the storage pool in the containment vessel through a hole on the roof created by the blast.

However, the firm concluded that it would be extremely difficult to spray water from a helicopter as the hole is dozens of meters from the storage pool and a helicopter can only carry a limited amount of water on a single flight.

Workers are currently unable to approach the storage pool due to the high radiation levels. Tokyo Electric Company is studying the possibility of using fire engines and other options to inject water into the reactor.

Wednesday, March 16, 2011 03:04 +0900 (JST)

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 16:57 | 1057201 Stuck on Zero
Stuck on Zero's picture

Every fireboat in Japan should be parked next to the reactors pumping water through hoses into the plant.  Barges with water and electric generators should be anchored in the inlet.  Military vehicles with air filtration systems should be everywhere.  Power should be restored.  Sprinklers should be hosing down everything continuously so that there is no radiation in the form of airborne particles leave the site.  Huge air filter bags should be taking in particulates, water filters with activated carbon should be concentrating an particulate and soluble wastes. Welders, masons, engineers, and builders should quickly getting all coolant systems running.   At least 100,000 people should be working on this problem. 

Anything short  of this scale of effort is sure criminality.

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