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Stratfor On The Libyan War
From George Friedman of Stratfor
The Libyan War Of 2011
The Libyan war has now begun. It pits a coalition of European powers
plus the United States, a handful of Arab states and rebels in Libya
against the Libyan government. The long-term goal, unspoken but well
understood, is regime change — displacing the government of Libyan
leader Moammar Gadhafi and replacing it with a new regime built around
the rebels.
The mission is clearer than the strategy, and that strategy can’t be
figured out from the first moves. The strategy might be the imposition
of a no-fly zone, the imposition of a no-fly zone and attacks against
Libya’s command-and-control centers, or these two plus direct ground
attacks on Gadhafi’s forces. These could also be combined with an
invasion and occupation of Libya.
The question, therefore, is not the mission but the strategy to be
pursued. How far is the coalition, or at least some of its members,
prepared to go to effect regime change and manage the consequences
following regime change? How many resources are they prepared to provide
and how long are they prepared to fight? It should be remembered that
in Iraq and Afghanistan the occupation became the heart of the war, and
regime change was merely the opening act. It is possible that the
coalition partners haven’t decided on the strategy yet, or may not be in
agreement. Let’s therefore consider the first phases of the war,
regardless of how far they are prepared to go in pursuit of the mission.
Like previous wars since 1991, this war began with a very public
buildup in which the coalition partners negotiated the basic framework,
sought international support and authorization from multinational
organizations and mobilized forces. This was done quite publicly because
the cost of secrecy (time and possible failure) was not worth what was
to be gained: surprise. Surprise matters when the enemy can mobilize
resistance. Gadhafi was trapped and has limited military capabilities,
so secrecy was unnecessary.
While all this was going on and before final decisions were made,
special operations forces were inserted in Libya on two missions. First,
to make contact with insurgent forces to prepare them for coming
events, create channels of communications and logistics and create a
post-war political framework. The second purpose was to identify targets
for attack and conduct reconnaissance of those targets that provided as
up-to-date information as possible. This, combined with air and space
reconnaissance, served as the foundations of the war. We know British
SAS operators were in Libya and suspect other countries’ special
operations forces and intelligence services were also operating there.
War commences with two sets of attacks. The first attacks are
decapitation attacks designed to destroy or isolate the national command
structure. These may also include strikes designed to kill leaders such
as Gadhafi and his sons or other senior leaders. These attacks depend
on specific intelligence on facilities, including communications,
planning and so on along with detailed information on the location of
the leadership. Attacks on buildings are carried out from the air but
not particularly with cruise missile because they are especially
accurate if the targets are slow, and buildings aren’t going anywhere.
At the same time, aircraft are orbiting out of range of air defenses
awaiting information on more mobile targets and if such is forthcoming,
they come into range and fire appropriate munitions at the target. The
type of aircraft used depends on the robustness of the air defenses, the
time available prior to attack and the munitions needed. They can range
from conventional fighters or stealth strategic aircraft like the U.S.
B-2 bomber (if the United States authorized its use). Special operations
forces might be on the ground painting the target for laser-guided
munitions, which are highly accurate but require illumination.
At the same time these attacks are under way, attacks on airfields,
fuel storage depots and the like are being targeted to ground the Libyan
air force. Air or cruise missile attacks are also being carried out on
radars of large and immobile surface-to-air (SAM) missile sites.
Simultaneously, “wild weasel” aircraft — aircraft configured for the
suppression of enemy air defenses — will be on patrol for more mobile
SAM systems to locate and destroy. This becomes a critical part of the
conflict. Being mobile, detecting these weapons systems on the ground is
complex. They engage when they want to, depending on visual perception
of opportunities. Therefore the total elimination of anti-missile
systems is in part up to the Libyans. Between mobile systems and
man-portable air-defense missiles, the threat to allied aircraft can
persist for quite a while even if Gadhafi’s forces might have difficulty
shooting anything down.
This is the part that the United States in particular and the West in
general is extremely good at. But it is the beginning of the war.
Gadhafi’s primary capabilities are conventional armor and particularly
artillery. Destroying his air force and isolating his forces will not by
itself win the war. The war is on the ground. The question is the
motivation of his troops: If they perceive that surrender is
unacceptable or personally catastrophic, they may continue to fight. At
that point the coalition must decide if it intends to engage and destroy
Gadhafi’s ground forces from the air. This can be done, but it is never
a foregone conclusion that it will work. Moreover, this is the phase at
which civilian casualties begin to mount. It is a paradox of warfare
instigated to end human suffering that the means of achieving this can
sometimes impose substantial human suffering itself. This is not merely a
theoretical statement. It is at this point at which supporters of the
war who want to end suffering may turn on the political leaders for not
ending suffering without cost. It should be remembered that Saddam
Hussein was loathed universally but those who loathed him were
frequently not willing to impose the price of overthrowing him. The
Europeans in particular are sensitive to this issue.
The question then becomes the extent to which this remains an air
operation, as Kosovo was, or becomes a ground operation. Kosovo is the
ideal, but Gadhafi is not Slobodan Milosevic and he may not feel he has
anywhere to go if he surrenders. For him the fight may be existential,
whereas for Milosevic it was not. He and his followers may resist. This
is the great unknown. The choice here is to maintain air operations for
an extended period of time without clear results, or invade. This raises
the question of whose troops would invade. Egypt appears ready but
there is long animosity between the two countries, and its actions might
not be viewed as liberation. The Europeans could do so. It is difficult
to imagine Obama adopting a third war in Muslim world as his own. This
is where the coalition is really tested.
If there is an invasion, it is likely to succeed. The question then
becomes whether Gadhafi’s forces move into opposition and insurgency.
This again depends on morale but also on behavior. The Americans forced
an insurgency in Iraq by putting the Baathists into an untenable
position. In Afghanistan the Taliban gave up formal power without having
been decisively defeated. They regrouped, reformed and returned. It is
not known to us what Gadhafi can do or not do. It is clear that it is
the major unknown.
The problem in Iraq was not the special operations forces. It was not
in the decapitation strikes or suppression of enemy air defenses. It
was not in the defeat of the Iraqi army on the ground. It was in the
occupation, when the enemy reformed and imposed an insurgency on the
United States that it found extraordinarily difficult to deal with.
Therefore the successes of the coming day will tell us nothing. Even
if Gadhafi surrenders or is killed, even if no invasion is necessary
save a small occupation force to aid the insurgents, the possibility of
an insurgency is there. We will not know if there will be an insurgency
until after it begins. Therefore, the only thing that would be
surprising about this phase of the operation is if it failed.
The decision has been made that the mission is regime change in
Libya. The strategic sequence is the routine buildup to war since 1991,
this time with a heavier European component. The early days will go
extremely well but will not define whether or not the war is successful.
The test will come if a war designed to stop human suffering begins to
inflict human suffering. That is when the difficult political decisions
have to be made and when we will find out whether the strategy, the
mission and the political will fully match up.
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I am still trying to determine the specific benefactors of all the destabalization.
Possible answers here...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qa3X4paPCGo
has that guy ever heard of demand destruction?
Sorry, but I do not consider Alex Jones the Guru on much of anything. Some of the things he says may be correct, but I do not look to him for info. What about the one thing he does not speak of?
We're all bilderbergers - didn't ya know. Yet he tries to sell you survival food from some shithouse in Alabama. Interesting dichotomy
I agree. Alex Jones is psyops. Some of what he says is true, because that is how psyops is successful. By playing on true information and disinformation.
But, it's still a part of the component of: "Pay attention to my right, while I move with my left."
Ultimately irrelevant whether he is psyops or not. I thank the lying, deceitful, omissions of mainstream everyday for elucidating the appropriate contrast that leads to truth... whether it's relative or absolute.
+1. These criticisms about AJ seem hollow and disingenuous.
**
I just got home from running errands. During that time I saw two homeless guys - one I bought shoes for and another I bought food for. Is this going to change the world? Fuck and no.
Without media like ZH and AJ, I doubt I'd be at this place in life: I'd be just another ass-clown, thinking I was making it in this system. Instead, thanks to media like this, I'm now an ass-clown who understands how corrupt this system is, and sees many people hurting as a result of it.
**
We all have the power to change things for the better. Whatever you find most egregious about what's going on in the world, you can do your small part to make a change.
I concur-
I'm not sure, but it probably rhymes with JPM/GS.
As a smart guy said here earlier someday, perhaps it rhymes with Wraths-child.
ORI
so Germany has joined the BRICs with the no vote. Will the G'BRICs be the next axis of evil once they all ditch the dollar??
Dark, sad to report that the I in BRIC is now sadly in the love-death grip of Good Old Uncle Sam on one side and Dear Israel on the other. Largest arms importer in the world. India is one giant puppet. We will do nothing to displease our masters.
ORI
b-but, b-but, but you have to defend yourselves from those aggressive, hostile, maniacal Pakistanis next door, don'tcha? If you were not properly armed, they might take over Kashmir
Wish there was an emoticon for a wry grin.
The theater of the absurd, the land of the blind, one eyed king with no clothes....etc.
ORI
In the land of no clothes, the man with the largest one eyed monster gets to be king...
Afaik
{;ç\)
but he's French w. beret and double chin.
(Isn't it time that you crossed Chandrasekar's other limit so that you can come back and tell us what's happening there?)
It will be the axis of the "No dollar". Whether that makes them 'axis of evil' is a question of determining who is the pot and who is the kettle...before the New Slanging Match begins...of 'Pot' calling 'Kettle' black. Shades of Pol Pot in the air...
Some may have viewed or heard reports of Moammar Gadhafi's apparent bizarre concerns about "Al-Qaeda in the Land of the Islamic Maghreb", the American media presented MG's comments as part of its case that he is insane. These are a couple of reports from AP and BBC that talk about AQ in North Africa.
AP
Al-Qaida commander calls for Islamic rule in Libya
By MAAMOUN YOUSSEF
Associated Press
http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/A/AF_LIBYA_AL_QAIDA?SITE=AP&SECTION...
BBC Profile: Al-Qaeda in North Africa
Al-Qaeda in the Land of the Islamic Maghreb, to give its full name in English, has its roots in the bitter Algerian civil war of the early 1990s, but has since evolved to take on a more modern Islamist agenda
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/africa/6545855.stm
And here from Huffington (forgive me) is more of the same
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/03/19/extremists-among-libya-rebels_n...
Barry Obama Soetoro told the world that we are going in to Libya to stop a tyrannical government from killing civilians and we are accomplishing this goal by killing the civilians first before their government can get to them. A plan this brilliant can only be hatched by the mind of The Bernank!
Get the update: armed people killed by Gadafi's regular army: civilians, armed people killed by Western armies: illegal combatants.
Gee, I wonder how we would have felt if Europe & Russia had imposed a no fly zone over the US after Waco.
+ 76
Not you.
Not me.
Thank you for narrowing it down.
asdasmos
given all of the fubar int'l stuff, imho--no yet revealed playa' - Ned
Who are the benefactors? Oh come now sir. Its the first day of Purim.
http://firedoglake.com/2011/02/27/how-you-know-something-is-a-bad-idea-m...
Who was that here on this blog, going around saying beware the days of Purim? Whoever said that was right.
Rothschild's armies replacing their old puppet with a new puppet. They have to keep THEIR spice moving and their slaves working.
"I am still trying to determine the specific benefactors of all the destabalization."
Easy...the current regimes are charging us too much for that precious oil...we need new ones in there who will charge us less. Or, as an excuse to just "take it all away". The rabble will be easier to defend the oil facilities than a "government". Muslims have overcharged us and held the oil over us for too long. Maybe Obama was placed into the presidency, given the "peace prize" as a distraction...lull the Muzzies into thinking THEY were winning?
Could it be that "beneficiaries" or the phrase "cui bono" (to whose benefit) is meant here rather than "benefactors" (those who performs a good deed). Sorry to be pedantic.
""I am still trying to determine the specific benefactors of all the destabalization.""
When in doubt, go to War
Why "War is merely the continuation of politics by other means."
"It is political suicide for politicians in the west to make the necessary cuts in government expenditures....
http://seenoevilspeaknoevilhearnoevil.blogspot.com/2011/02/why-war-is-merely-continuation-of.html
Interesting to see the US spend billions of dollars to get rid of a dictator, when a sniper and a 42 cents bullet can do the job.
It's not about him.
it's telling what spin can accomplish
good bullets are a buck a throw
fricken' inflation! ;-) - Ned
The CIA could have dropped him like a bag of potatoes.
This is more than just getting rid of him. Which is why this has the potential to really backfire on us.
And something else I do not understand..
110 Tomahawks..for 20 targets..along the coast..?
They can put one of those babys into a conference
table on the 13th floor..
Guess that's good for Ratheon (and Ag.)..
Oh well..Maybe it's to rotate the stock
(missles, that is..)
+1
The tomahawks are not going to fire themselves, are they?
There is so much we don't know... but I think Gaddafi knows that he can be killed easily, that I totally agree.
For one, what is the right English spelling for his name? Dude, Voldemort?
http://news.yahoo.com/s/csm/20110222/wl_csm/365105
42 cents? There must be a good sale at wideners.com again. Must be a corrosive round.
Reload, bitchez
(we mean your own -silver-#bullets)
Its all about killing, death , and destruction, but most of all its about the continuing campaign of revenge..........
Tell me where you can get .338 Lapua AMAX ammo for less than five bucks per.
Who want's to SAVE taxpayer money? Campain "contributers" NEED their cut!
Here comes the SCUDS
Probably just a coincidence Bush started the Iraq war on 3-19 back in '03.
No accident. It is a mystery of numerology wrapped in a riddle. Only those who choose to see it can see it. There is power in the spiritual darkness for those who want it and search for it as it has been for thousands of years in the mystery schools. Somewhere in some old European castle they toasted lucifer, the light bearer, and drank human blood last night at midnight to celebrate their new war. No way you say? I believe it happens but only in the highest echelons of power in this world.
got to keep the eyes wide shut.
That "old European castle" where they toasted lucifer...is St. Peter's basilica.
That's one of them. Gee, can you tell me how that big remodel job was funded back then? Ha ha .........
Christianity is a mystery school.
There are no coincidences at this level. The hidden hands do love their numerology, of this there is no doubt. While we have been trained through our universal religion of science to laugh at this stuff, the hidden hand pays attention to it. Why?
same as ol' Adolph & his mystic shit...... and you know, that bastard almost won
Good, there are a few here that know there is uberestoteric shtuff going on right now. Oh, btw just imagine if the 'financers' of Adoplh and his chronies never lost...
Metropolis is a silent science-fiction movie released in 1927 by Fritz Lang, a master of German Expressionism. Set in a futuristic dystopia divided into two distinct and separate classes—the thinkers and the workers—Metropolis describes the struggles between the two opposite entities. Knowing that it was produced in 1927, viewing this movie today is quite an experience as many “sci-fi” aspects of the plot are eerily close to reality. Metropolis describes a society where the “New World Order” has already taken been implemented and a select elite live in luxury while a dehumanized mass work and live in a highly monitored hell.
http://vigilantcitizen.com/musicbusiness/the-occult-symbolism-of-movie-metropolis-and-its-importance-in-pop-culture/
There are really haunting images from that film I will never forget, like the march of the proles in unison to the work camps.
Metropolis has always been a triumph of sci-fi allegory for any generation. I first saw it almost 40 yrs ago.
It was good then -- but the recent 'Argentinian' version of the repatched classic is about as good as it gets. The 90 min Hollywood version was dire in the extreme -- but hey, what's a bit of corporate 'divide and delude' between pals?
The saddest thing for me is that the short version tells one, very different story, the 2010 repatch tells the original, more detailed and different allegory and WE had to wait 80+ years
No corporate conspiracy to see here -- move along.
---
Ever heard of Iraqi beer? Skud Light ! Goes down fast...never hits the spot.
Scud crushed. On ice.
Welcome France to the Oil Imperialism League. Your alittle rusty, so the US and UK will hold Quaddafi down while you run up and kick him in the nuts.
Edit: Other than Wall Street, who has a better ROI on campaign contributions than BP.
France has some cool toys they need to mess around with.
From all accounts, the US and UK aren't heavy participants yet. France wants to do the Bosnia thing and see if it can be "won" that way.
Part of imperial power is the ability to project your forces at vast distances and fuck up other nations.
your post from the other thread is worthy of ZH contributor status
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/uae-and-qatar-pledge-aircraft-libya-con...
his post was rubbish fantasy then, it is rubbish fantasy now
Trav is walking proof that there's no off position to the idiot racist switch.
Just checking here. Are there human behaviors not subject to racism or fundamentally determined by our inherent race-centric obsession?
perhaps you can cite what was rayciss in the post, jackass...I'm all ears.
FYI, that epithet is so overused it no longer has any meaning. it's something that bitches cry when they don't like what they hear and nobody cares anyway. All you do is expose yourself as a punk by using it. POCs laugh at you behind your back.
We all know you are all ears Trav.
They've grown that big because your JPMorgan/Rothschild masters grab you by your ears ...while you are on your knees.
They are calling you again boy, time to wear your kneepads!
word there 777
the operative words are to project nation- building experiments, eg state sponsored terror on nation states for the benefit of the few
or as you so eloquently put it, "fuck up other nations"
and that is correct
will Gaddafi be caught swinging from a coconut tree; the spider hole thingy has already been used?
Those stupid drogues on the facia aren't making any points. Tornado speaking.
Remember the Alamo!!! No wait, that was against the Mexicans.
Remember the Maine!!! No wait, that was against the Spanish.
Remember Pearl Harbor!!! No wait, that was against the Japanese.
???
Remember affordable Oil...!!!
Remember the USS Liberty!
Too soon!
Remember the USS Liberty!
Always!
Everyone watch Libya when the real shit is Bahrain . America at war constantly since 1960, Tell me again who are the terrorists.
I am a terrorist, by that standard. I'll let others vouch for themselves.
Don't drift away. I enjoy your thoughts.
integrate yourself ;-)
No wait a minute. it is operation libyan freedom.
Culturally, they're so focused on freedom. They eat, drink, piss, and crap freedom, basically, but despite it being also the essence of their being, every last one of them, they've never experienced it. So the rebels are fighting for it, to confirm its theoretical existence, just before getting back to Allah's proven societal recipes, and their specific rules for bitches. Bitchez.
Remember Persian Rugs!!!
Both kinds!
Wander what the SCUD STUD is up too these days
No inquiry? Junior?
He's on Al-jazeera.
ok something on a different intellectual plane... Is Sarkozy and Clinton in a race to Tripoli? I sense a competition here. Shades of Patton Vs. Montgomery.
Honestly if he is bombing his own people. Well...whats a few Sarin Warheads aimed at Sicily. Meh. Interesting times.
Also,
Where are all the No blood for oil people.
You ever heard of the removal of your lungs in your live body, and had them placed on your back? The blood Eagle. Ancient Saxons and Vikings.
no wonder you have a bag over your head. is it because your a moran?
Moron is the correct spelling. I was having fun Junior. Catch up on History! It isn't pretty.
!!
Wood chips or Medallions?
+
I knew a Moran
She certainly wasn't moranic
Long ago it was observed that they're all pretty with a bag over their head. You apparently didn't get the message.
two-baggers, bitchez
Thanks.
You are suggesting a sabre and stones? I'm going to stone you Hodgie!!! Bank on it!!!
we will find out whether the strategy, the mission, and the political will fully match up.
Yeah, I can see that working. Now about that bridge in Brooklyn...
Be over fast. Libya is pretty open country with a small population. No place for his munitions/armor/artillery to hide. A couple of days of attacks and there won't be anything left.
The trick will be finding out how much support for him there really was - i.e. will there be an insurgency, or will everyhting just melt away, or are we setting up for tribal warfare.
It had better be over fast, or the lack of a million plus barrels of mostly high quality oil exported every day will cause a huge price spike. Joe 4 Pack might even notice.
I doubt it will be over quickly. Even in my banana repukelet country, I'd pick up arms to defend my neighbors from invading foreigners. If the oil fields and pipelines go up in flames, perhaps the troops will leave, as I doubt most of the OCED economies could stand waiting for the oil to come back online. Collapse, bitchez!
Friedman is such a shameless warhawk, I really think he should be boycotted.
from drudge
MARCH 19, 2011
OBAMA: 'Today we are part of a broad coalition. We are answering the calls of a threatened people. And we are acting in the interests of the United States and the world'...
MARCH 19, 2003
BUSH: 'American and coalition forces are in the early stages of military operations to disarm Iraq, to free its people and to defend the world from grave danger'...
No comment?lol
Strategery? hell.. Rock, Paper, Scissors..bitches
Reporter: "So, you said you were reconnecting electricity to the number 5 & 6 reactors, and even though these were non-operational at the time of the earthquake and subsequent tsunami, and even though reactors 1, 2, 3 and 4 are the 'core' of the problem, and even though the spent fuel stored in numbers 5 & 6 was blown all around, scattered all about, and even though even these reactors sustained incredibly serious damage to their housing and structure, how could you expect the cooling systems to possibly work in even these facilities?"
TEPCO and/or Government Official: "Hey look, war broke out in Libya."
Oops...
Guess all these spin doctors ought
to hire a proof reader...
You suppose?
++++
Operation Dollar Rescue begins! I said this here when Egy revolt just began, it's about Saving Dollar, look at DXY chart.
This one is about trying to resuscitate the already dead euro.
Turn those reactors back on !
LOL - a macabre twist from Theater of the Absurd, but comical nonetheless. timing is everything
DXY @ 11-10 lows.
The small consolation will be the number of political heads surely to roll at the end of all this. The idiots just handed another country to the muslim brotherhood. Its not going to take much collatoral damage to turn majority of the population against the west. Then the silent majority ambivalent to either side starts allying itself with the regime and grabs a gun. Bloody civil war ensues, EU chickens out of a ground intervention leaving the US and a few token allies to go in alone. US intervention serves as a rallying cry under Allah - country unites under an Islamic front that turns its sights on the regime first & the US ground forces second. US is forced into position of withdrawing with tail between its legs or stay entangled in a long term occupation. Fundementalist islamic state becomes saviour to the masses and at the end of the day a friend to European powers once the oil taps are turned back on. Entire operation becomes yet another policy failure in annals of history.
Yeah, I know what you mean, just like Egypt (sarcasm off)
Keep it on! I like it!
muslim brotherhood : that's serious shit.
Tyler, you told us 2 US aircraft carriers are on a support mission for Afghanistan troops. Don't you think 5 carriers would do a better job for them? I mean, the party is going on for a while over there.
I almost forgot : is your president aware that a Taliban that didn't sleep for 5 days in a row could not fight anymore? Is that why the bombings are stopped once in a while (I mean, to let the enemy sleep?)
Get the point Omonkey? Bombing non stop for 10 days (at that point they all see 5 camels when there is a single one), then you send a dozen topless chicks to clear the country. U need to cut spendings and be a reasonable man.
Indeed, bring on the topless chicks! That is spending that at least some of us will be getting behind.
Count the dominoes as they start to tumble.
One more war, many more needless deaths, all based on a pack of lies. Cui bono? Even that hardly matters anymore. It's almost as if a pathalogical need to serve up blood on the 33rd parallel will not be denied.
For a moment, imagine that all the "force" being used in Libya was turned to benevolence in Japan? Can you? I can, but then most say I live in a utopian never-land.
We will each fall and rise on the swords of our dis-illusions. Meanwhile, look for the intensity to intensify, if that makes any sense.
ORI
http://aadivaahan.wordpress.com/2011/03/11/axis-trembles/
don't make me imagine those scenarios anymore. just quit it. stop it ORI! do you always have to re-focus the perspective. Damn it...stop now. I swear Ill fly to India and make you stop. I have attack rhesus macaque monkeys you know. If that doesn't work I'll force sunspots to coordinate lat/long with the perigee bab(moon) to teach you a lesson.
(you and that f'n mirror you got rid of : ) )
Does *wry grin* look cheesy? Because I'm grinning, but Wryly.
What to do HLS? Look left, look right, up, down, just as long long as you don't look at the center, eh?
And that mirror experiment? The best thing I did since the TeeVee experiment. :-)
ORI
ORI,
It is now evident that the west does not care about Japan at all. No nat resources, and competition for GM/Daimler. I would not be surprised at all to learn that the west advised the Japanese to wait for help....that will never arrive.
Isn't that just a humongous tell about our times Ahmee?
Mind boggling depravity abounds. The poor Japanese, what a price to pay for 60 odd years of what looked like the good life, all a illusion.
ORI
Reactor #3 is venting the controled streams between #1 and# 2 is that giant exposed pipe. The shell around the containment vessel on # 2 won't blow up. The area is highly irriadiated. (sp) These reactor shields are 4 stories high. They will be entombed. This site is toast. It won't hurt the U.S. These 3% pellets will melt down.
Indeed, the Useless Nitwits micro-war in north africa is about the tsunami triggered nuke plant emergency in Japan. You've tied it together. Bravo.
Fuck now we're getting somewhere.
I wanna blow something up.
"I luv the smell of napalm aftershave in the morning"
It is possible that the coalition partners haven’t decided on the strategy yet,
--
oh, good. starting a war with a view to making it up as they go along. always a winner.
and who, oh who, came up with the name Odyssey Dawn and whose side are they on?
Odyssey Dawn ....... cool porn name .
Today's winning comment.
Excellent article!
Global dynamics have changed so it has now become less expensive to take the OIL than to buy it from Gaddafi.
Instinctive best guess is the price will stabilize higher from here out.
It should be remembered that in Iraq and Afghanistan the occupation became the heart of the war, and regime change was merely the opening act. -- George Friedman
Please, ZH, check this guy’s background before consistently using him - the "rah-rah let's invade” Iraq George Friedman - as a source on the Middle East.
Maybe this report is properly sourced and maybe it isn’t. For me, I’m unable to look at it without bias because of Stratfor’s reputation. And I’m hopeful ZH can find another, more reliable source for critical events such as this instead of pro-war, neocon George Friedman.
Here’s a little of Stratfor bias:
Stratfor has argued that, despite their rhetoric, Arab regimes really support Israel’s punitive invasion of the Gaza strip that began in late 2008 and inflicted many civilian casualties. Israel’s action was condemned by a UN report for war crimes and crimes against humanity; Stratfor implies the invasion was not a war crime.
Among Friedman’s predictions: America’s south western states will secede and join Mexico. This move toward a breakup of America will be brought about, according to Friedman, by large scale Mexican immigration to the region, the rising economic power of Mexico, and Mexico’s festering resentment over the U.S. conquest of its territory.
Stratfor’s Wikipedia entry describes a close working relationship with the U.S. military; his private intelligence corporation is a major source for the MSM, affectionately called “The Shadow CIA” by Barron’s.
Careful J.R. this could be misconstrued as ZIONIST.
Someone has to use disclosure information on this guy or readers might not realize his true bias. It might as well be me.
For instance, STRATFOR was the probable source for a 2010 article, The War Recovery, by David Broder in The Washington Post advocating that President Obama bomb Iran to shore up the U.S. economy – supposedly a sure hit to get him re-elected in 2012.
Said STRATFOR (Friedman): “The most obvious justification would be to claim that Iran is about to construct a nuclear device. Whether or not this is true would be immaterial.”
Glad you are back from Japan, Yen Cross. My heart goes out to the people in their sorrow.
Thank you. last Tuesday. You called usd/jpy perfectly!
++++ well said
WTF?
Mexico's economic power isn't rising. Their oil production has peaked and they are now a net importer. Their clout is fucked and will continue to get fuckeder
Thanks for the heads up on the source. However, this commentary appears to be solid since it is not directly related to areas of previous concern.
In particular, easy victory as far as ending Gaddafi's ability to use aircraft or tanks, followed by possible difficulty when it comes to putting soldiers into Libya.
Any comment on that analysis?
Thanks for the note. Appearances in my view, however, can be deceiving knowing the bias of the source. In my view, Libya is very much a part of the Middle East versus the Empire equation.
Neocons, such as Friedman, want accommodating Middle Eastern countries, i.e., puppet heads of state if necessary. The growing relationship of the Libyan war and the danger to the American Empire from events in Bahrain will bring the neocons to the airwaves en masse relishing an endgame with Iran.
I already know from Friedman's past commentary where STRATFOR comes down on this one. With this in mind, every word the man writes, whether it’s to recite Keats or report on bombing missions, is suspicious.
Debka is more entertaining. I would think they would feed you some material.
George Friedman of Stratfor has a great start, here.
the moQ's ability to survive the probing intel and the "surgical", and his armed forces' willingness to fight may be "wild", but we don't seem to know too much about the rebels, except it seems sarkozy's peeps are handling the banking for them, eh?
so, who are these "rebels"? are they monolithic and homogenous, and unified? or a comglomeration of interests, with a certain faction getting funding, or what?
and, yes, this "wild card" will be about the "occupation and provisional goobermint" and so on. if the "rebels" have been vetted and funded by, say, interests in which mossad has a strong, clear voice, the mortar attacks from gaza into israel make more sense, doncha think?
and how are we doing with those nice, warm fuzzies from the fascist banksters, the financial wizardry behind all this? along with the political/intelligence and police/military functions, WE also have a proud and glorious future in the New World Order...
...as debt slaves.
I wonder if you also blame the mossad for your severe mental retardation.
You have the facts right up in front of you, but you turn around and keep feeding the nazi inside of you.
This is about european colonialist interests. After WWII, the british drove a wedge between arabs and israelis in order to keep their weapons sales alive.
To this date, europe keep arming and playing friend to both sides.
The ship carrying Iranian weapons, the Victoria, is GERMAN OWNED:
http://www.jpost.com/Defense/Article.aspx?id=212683
The mortar attacks from gaza into Israel are also promoted by the european plutocracies. They need to drag Israel into this conflict. The nazi pope in the vatican has been waiting decades for this moment.
Mossad or not, you will be a slave. (If you're not already : going to work on next Monday morning?)
Sad, I can't be a slave. They will need to kill me.
My father, who worked (almost) 2 weeks in is whole life and got 29 new cars, told me that smart people never work. They just watch those doing so. Before he pass away, he told me that one day, most people in America will (really) hate one man :
Ben Bernanke
You're a toasted (slave) sheeple.
Sorry to disappoint you. I am not a slave like you.
I recommend you read Bob Black's "Abolition of Work".
You're a toasted nazi sheeple. You will be defeated. For a third time. And this time, you will not rise again.
I'm not nazi like you. But papa was half-one, painting the nazi cross on summer place garage doors, saying it scares the thiefts...
Somebody ought to carve a swastika on your fat, greasy, bald head.
somebody needs to shove a pellet of Zyklon B down your throat and then set you on fire.
Are you playing Vichy to Adolph Golden Monkey again?
How very fuckin french of you! I'm sure you'll be getting new kneepads with a pink swastika as a gift from him.
I really love both of you! Tear my body in half! You are both Brilliant!!! Hell I had to deal with a 12 year old prick calling me a FAG tonight. I'm soo gay i'"m straight. I hope that kid is though. My IT people tracked that bitch. Should we scare him?
Beware of scared bears, you cocksucker.
See you in July. In the mean time, just say I to your friend Norton. I have tickets to see Bon Jovi in Montreal on May 4, if he can't wait... (I heard the Jewish General is the best hospital over there, and for sure they never saw a monkey like me, even in a wrecked Volvo).
Pigs get divorced; monkeys never get married.
Slaves will burn in the inflation fire.
BULLSHIT
the hand of the Arab is always against his brother
and against Israel since ISHMAEL long before there were British
you're going to need to dig deeper then the 20th century to understand our world today
I seriously doubt that anyone has really thought this matter through. Certainly there is a hope that the Gaddafi regime will collapse and it might be thought that the use of air power will convince Gaddafi's followers that the game is up, but there is no certainty of that...and I don't perceive a fall back plan if, after a week or so of aerial bombing, Gaddafi is still in power. President Obama has made it pretty certain that US ground forces will not be used - so any knock out blow, supposing Gaddafi doesn't quit, will have to come from French and British military forces. Will the Anglo-French send troops in to battle Gaddafi's followers? That remains to be seen.
Post war I see even less indications of a clear idea. President Obama has made it clear that stability is the desired goal - and thus SecState Clinton's disgusting acceptance of Saudi intervention to save the Bahrain government from revolution. Regardless of what happens in Libya - and I doubt that anyone in power really cares if it becomes a drawn out stalemate baleful to the Libyan people - the leaders of the world want stability in the oil-producing regions. To this end, they are willing to sacrifice money (ours), lives (ours) and honor (theirs, if they have any).