Stratfor Update On Tripoli Clashes

Tyler Durden's picture

From Stratfor

Emerging reports early Feb. 21 indicate the unrest in Libya is
spreading from eastern Libya to the capital of Tripoli. According to
initial reports, heavy gunfire was heard in central Tripoli and in other
districts with Al Jazeera reporting 61 people killed in Tripoli on Feb.
21. Other unconfirmed reports say that protesters attacked the
headquarters of Al-Jamahiriya Two television and Al-Shababia as well as
other government buildings in Tripoli overnight. According to
Saudi-owned al-Arabiya, the government-owned People’s Conference Centre
where the General People’s Congress (parliament) meets when it is in
session in Tripoli was set on fire. U.K. energy firm British Petroleum
reportedly said it would evacuate its personnel from Libya and suspend
its activities due to massive unrest. Spain’s Foreign Minister Trinidad
Jimenez said on Feb. 21 that the EU member states are coordinating
possible evacuations of European nationals from Libya. A Turkish
Airlines flight was arranged to evacuate Turkish citizens from Benghazi
but was denied the opportunity to land by Libyan authorities and
returned to Turkey.

Details are sketchy as to the number of protesters and severity of
the clashes in Tripoli. Clashes have been going on between the
protesters and security forces in mostly eastern cities of the country
and in Benghazi in particular, where opposition against Libyan leader
Moammar Gadhafi is concentrated. Signs of protests spreading to Tripoli
emerged late Feb. 20 and apparently intensified following a speech made by Ghaddafi’s son Seif al-Islam.
In that speech, Seif al-Islam was attempting to present himself as the
new and untarnished face of the regime, reiterating the political,
social and economic reforms that he has long advocated were needed to
hold Libya’s tribal society together. Though in his speech Seif
al-Islam carefully distanced himself from old-regime tactics, protesters
in Tripoli reportedly rejected the young Libyan leader and began
chanting slogans against Seif al-Islam’s address.

Critically, Seif al-Islam implied in his speech that he had the the
approval of his father and elements within the military, and that the
army and national guard would be relied on to crack down on “seditious
elements” spreading unrest. However, unconfirmed reports of army
defections in Benghazi and Baida in eastern Libya from Feb. 20 and now
spreading unrest to Tripoli Feb. 21 is casting some doubt on the
regime’s ability to count on the full loyalty and ability of the army to
contain the situation.

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Oh regional Indian's picture

From all my other reading (Tarpley et. al.), libya is seems to have tipped over. Such a surprise, I thought Gadfly was a much loved leader. But dark times, for sure.

Look elsewhere, stability is disappearing. India is in the throes of it's own cricket drunk distraction. Anythign will come out of left-field and I'm sure we are on the radar too.

But the whole globe is a heat map of unrest. As is the earth (mega-swarm of temblors though a critical mid-atlantic plate as I type). And this is another major earthquake year.

Helmets and seat-belts on!


tonyw's picture

"I thought Gadfly was a much loved leader." Libya has the same problems as Tunisia and Egypt, high unemployment, a dynastic kleptocracy combined with high corruption that makes people despondent for their situation to improve. In Libya the people are also unhappy that despite huge wealth of resources compared to Tunisia & Egypt the people are very poor.

As usual the trouble is being blamed on foreigners especially the Turks. Reports say some of the tribes are opposing Gaddafi.

IMHO he is finished, maybe the fastest revolution to date.

Oh regional Indian's picture

Funny, you could replace Libya with India or a 100 other countries in the first paragraph) right now and be describing their state accurately.


tempo's picture

Could CA. be next??   I live in CA and think the union members combined w the undocumented workers will turn the State into a living hell if any their benefits are changed.   CA. has lived on issuing new munis for years and its life blood has been cut off.  In a few months, the jack hammer will meet the concrete and sparks will fly.

cossack55's picture

How much gold did they have and where is it.  Those facts will tell the tale.

oh_bama's picture

People are excited about, and even hoping for revolutions. But nothing will happen since there is no enough money to trigger hyper inflation. There are "pockets" of mild inflation here and there, and a few governments are not stable to start with hit some bumps, but nothing major will happen in China and india.

There is a piece of news, if you can read chinese, saying the preschool tuition was up only 20%, indicating inflation is slowing very quickly. hehe

QE wins, bearish guys lose!



Overflow-admin's picture

The Billion Prices Project @ MIT --> Annual Inflation

Can you tell me where inflation is slowing? Hint: must cross the x axis.

papaswamp's picture

Gold crosses $1400....silver well into $33 zone.

NYMEX $89.19

Brent $103.70

WTI $86.20

OPEC Basket $99.06

Corn $7.19

Wheat $8.57

Soy $13.75


sushi's picture

Citizen reports out of Benghazi state that units of the military have acted to support the protestors against Gaddafi's secret police unit, that protestors are now armed with small arms and also have tanks!!

Also the society in Libya remains organizes along tribal lines. This includes the military (which partially explains the above). Two of the largest eastern tribes have come out pubiclly in support of protest and asked Gadaffi to leave.

Little confirmation on the above apart from the fact that Gaddaffi's son made televesion speech in which he introduced the concept of civil war. You need some kind of an armed opposition to have a civil war. Murdering civilians does not count. So his "civil war" reference tends to support the state loss of control of some terroritory.

papaswamp's picture

It will be interesting to see if the military fragments along tribal lines. This would lead to all out civil war.

ZackAttack's picture

This is about overthrowing the oligarchy. So far, oligarchs have gotten spanked. It's only a matter of time before it spreads to the West.

sushi's picture
Why do you Libyans want Gaddafi gone? Here are some reasons… Posted on by admin
  • Salaries in Libya are governed by law number 15 which sets the average salary of Libyans at 200 dollars per month. To make things worst it is customary to have this low wage paid intermittently.
  • Law number 4 caters for the confiscation of private and commercial property, practically passing such stolen properties to the members of his family and of its so called revolutionary committee members who are in charge of security.
  • The burning down of the land registry building in Tripoli to destroy any reference of legal ownership of property.
  • The continuous discharge of untreated sewage in the sea in close proximity to the cities Tripoli and Benghazi
  • The sudden unnotified change of Libyan currency practically confiscating all personal assets of Libyans
  • Civil infrastructure, healthcare and the education system have failed beyond disbelief in the last 40 years.
  • Private Libyan citizens yearly spend on average 5billion dollars in Tunisia, Jordan and Egypt out of their pockets for medical treatment, because they have completely lost trust in the Libyan health care system.
  • Gaddafi committed some of the most brutal human right excesses in the late 70′s and early 80′s. Libyan students were hanged in universities, sport auditoriums and public squares simply for not adhering to the green book ideology.
  • Gaddafi has squandered unimaginable wealth on his propaganda machine; mainly managed by such figures like Mr. Ali Alkilani and Mr. Abdullah Mansour
  • For many years Gaddafi squandered hundreds of millions of dollars on terrorist organizations such as the IRA and the red brigades, and on separatist movements in Africa, the Far East and central and Latin America.
  • Gaddafi’s agents killed WPC Ivon Fletcher outside the Libyan Embassy in London in 1984 and many other  Libyan political dissidents through a campaign that he calls “Eliminating Stray Dogs”
  • Gaddafi has also shot down a civilian Libyan airliner over Libya killing about 150 passengers. Bizarrely he had given the doomed flight a similar flight number to the Lockerbie airliner. This atrocity was also committed on the anniversary of the Lockerbie airliner.
  • Abu Sleem prison massacre where he ordered the killing of over 1200 political prisoners
  • The HIV infection breakout in Benghazi. Over 500 children where effected because the sterilization equipment were malfunctioning.
  • Gaddafi waged pointless wars in Chad and Uganda where over 20,000 Libyans died. In addition, Gaddafi supplied chemical weapons to the late Somalian dictator Ziad Berri which caused thousands of deaths.
  • The destruction of the mausoleum (in Benghazi) of Omar Mukhtar and the removal of his remains to be buried in a remote Oasis which was an act of desecration to the national pride.
  • The act of entertaining and handing out euro’s to hundreds of selected young Italian women in Rome so he could preach to them the green book ideology and convert them to his version of Islam. To add insult to injury, upon his return to Libya Gaddafi publicly insulted and attacked a couple of Libyan women that he caught begging outside Tripoli central mosque (Moulia Mohamed) after the Friday prayer.
  • The declaration of war on Switzerland for arresting one of his sons and his wife for beating up the domestic staff.
  • The demolition of several historically listed buildings in downtown Tripoli such as the parliament and our foreign ministry.
  • The use of Libyan women as so called revolutionary nuns as personal bodyguards.
  • The total disregard of the teachings (Sunna) of the prophet Muhammad and his failed attempts at altering the Quranic text.
  • The forced military training of very young male and female students.
  • The peculiar unwritten law of forbidding the mention of the names of any Libyan official by the national media accept those of himself and immediate members of his family. In football no names of players were allowed to be mentioned except that of his son because Gaddafi regarded stardom as a political crime.
  • His continuous efforts to rewrite Libyan history according to his twisted personal ideology and personal grandiose.
  • The abolishment of the Libyan constitution (compiled by a team of leading international jurists) which symbolized the smooth birth of Libyan independence and its national sovereignty as voted for by the general assembly of the UN.  Gaddafi continued to rule Libya without a constitution until the present day.
  • According to the UN development surveys and other international organizations publications Libya’s development indicators perform dismally.
  • Gaddafi’s extensive liaison with colourful African witchcraft doctors and voodoo priests, arguably leading to his ultimate act of eccentricity proclaiming himself Africa’s King of Kings. Commentators and political analysts continue to struggle to accommodate this with his brand of revolutionary socialism.
entendance's picture

<...Today’s scums don’t have palaces big enough to hide inside. And the planet is now a village: nowhere to run...>

overmedicatedundersexed's picture

bad omens all around..if we were still a shaman led society..the soothsayers would be gutting birds and such and throwing( virgins if we could find any) into the maw of volcanoes which now wonders what madness the advisers of the powerful are whispering.

some feel these soothsayers could tap into the general unconscious of the tribe/nation/world..

perhaps TYLER is our modern day Shamen..

shaking sticks with silver and gold amulets

and chanting death to the fed, death to the banksters across the ethernet.

Xibalba's picture

planes are doing bombing runs now....

vxpatel's picture

Wonder what the gun ownership rate is in Libya? Amazing what people can accomplish, when they have an objective.

Which is why it's best to keep the fat consumer sheeple of the land of freedom distracted with their iboxphonepad gayillegalbordercrashindishwashinaliens who want to get married and lots of cheap gooeyyyy cheese on their Dominos Pizza!


God bless America! And her brave citizens.

fiasco's picture

when I was-a in roma when Gadhafi visit, he invited all the hookers to a party.  lots of girls come-a.

lots of girls are hookers in italy, but that? another story, but that? what the judges say.

at the party, Gadhafi gave an hour long speech.  apparently, although i read this in the paper, he? good at canasta.  anyway, after the speech-a, he give a copy of the koran to everybody.

all the girls left the party with a koran. 

tucked away in the koran was a picture of Gadhafi fishing with his shirt off. crazy man.

at the back was his hotel address. he was looking to hook up-a.

i remember this story because i got stood up that night by a really nice-a girl.

oh maria, if you?e reading this, i hope-a your grand-ma is feeling better.