This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.
Stratfor's Geopolitical Intelligence Guidance For The Week Of February 20, 2011
As we pointed out earlier, the upcoming week will be quiet on economic and market events. What it, however, will be heavy on is revolutions, riots and the good old ultraviolence. Below is a useful primer from Stratfor for what is becoming an increasingly more complex geopolitical chess game, for the time being confined in the Maghreb, but soon spreading all across the Muslim crescent and soon thereafter into East Asia.
The following is an internal STRATFOR document produced to
provide high-level guidance to our analysts. This document is not a
forecast, but rather a series of guidelines for understanding and
evaluating events, as well as suggestions on areas for focus.
New Guidance
1. Protests and Unrest: There has now been some spark of unrest in
places as far afield as Cote d’Ivoire and Iran. For the most part, these
protests are limited in size and scope, and not all of them are
connected. But are some? Are there protests unified by common themes?
Are there common forces at work behind the scenes in some cases?
Examine the following countries in particular:
- Bahrain: There is a dissonance between the protesters in the street
and the organized political opposition. How does this play out? To what
extent is Iran meddling in a meaningful way with these protests? Is
there any indication that this unrest will spread to Kuwait or the
Shiite areas in eastern Saudi Arabia?
- Libya: After several days of agitation, Libyan leader Moammar Gadhafi’s son Seif al-Islam delivered a speech
on national television. The content of the speech indicates the state
believes it is facing a serious uprising and a potential civil war. We
need to know which military units have been involved in trying to tamp
down unrest and which have been kept in reserve. We also need to dig
deeper into the allegations that mercenaries and hired thugs are behind
the unrest, specifically who organized them. Seif al-Islam implied in
his speech that he has the support of his father and the military, but
we have to test that claim and watch for fractures within the military.
We also need to be monitoring any moves by members of the military’s old
guard as well as another of Gadhafi’s sons, Libyan National Security
Adviser Motasem Gadhafi, who is Seif al-Islam’s rival.If the situation spirals out of control, it is not clear that the
Libyan military would be capable of ousting Gadhafi and his family from
power as a way to preserve order, as the militaries in Tunisia and Egypt
were able to do with the leaders of those countries.
- Yemen: The situation is escalating, with the opposition seizing on
President Ali Abdullah Saleh’s weakness. Where do tribal loyalties
currently lie and how committed is the army to backing the Saleh regime?
At what point are they likely to break with him?
- Tunisia: The protesters have remobilized to demand the ousting of
Prime Minister Mohamed Ghannouchi, a remnant of the Ben Ali regime. How
the army deals with these protests will be telling.
2. China: Following a call for a “Jasmine Revolution” in China,
several gatherings took place in different Chinese cities Feb. 20,
including Beijing and Shanghai. It is important not to look at the China
gatherings only through the lens of a Tunisia- or Egypt-style
“revolution.” Where did the call originate? Why were there no organizers
present at the announced rally sites? Why were the 13 targeted cities
chosen, but others left off the list? Why distribute a call for a
popular protest in China over websites and blogs commonly blocked or
monitored in China. Was there external involvement? Is this a one-off
incident, or does it portend further attempts or the potential for a
wider movement of activism across China?
3. Iran: We need to continue gauging the breadth and significance of
Iran’s efforts to take advantage of unrest around the region. The
looming passage of a small Iranian warship and a support vessel through
the Suez Canal is one aspect of this certain to provoke rhetorical
bluster. But where and how aggressively is Iran pushing across the
region. What new insight can we gain into its efforts from recent
developments?
Existing Guidance
1. Iran, Iraq: Our focus in the region needs to return to Iran and
Iraq, which remain central to our outlook for the year. Where do we
stand on understanding the likely status of American military forces in
Iraq beyond the end of the year? Have the first 45 days of the year at
all altered our assessment of or shed new light on how Washington and
Tehran will interact and maneuver this year?
2. Israel: Israel has dodged a bullet, at least for now, with the
military regime in Cairo remaining at the helm. How will
Egyptian-Israeli interactions change? How do Israeli policies and
priorities shift? We need to understand Israel’s position moving forward
EURASIA
- Feb. 21: EU foreign ministers will meet in Brussels to discuss
engagement with Bosnia-Herzegovina and reforms as the Balkan country
aspires to join the European Union. - Feb. 21: Lithuania’s Special Representative for Protracted Conflicts
Giedrius Cekuolis will visit Azerbaijan and meet with officials to
discuss ways to settle the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. - Feb. 21: Argentine Foreign Minister Hector Timerman will meet in
Vienna with U.N. Office on Drug and Crime Executive Director Yuri
Fedotov and International Atomic Energy Agency head Yukiya Amano. - Feb. 21: An EU expert mission will visit Serbia to investigate
reforms in Serbia’s judiciary and law enforcement, as well as the fight
against corruption and organized crime. - Feb. 21-22: The anti-terrorism center heads from Commonwealth of
Independent States (CIS) member states will meet in Moscow in accordance
with the CIS Cooperation Program, which covers measures against
terrorism and other violent acts of extremism for 2011-2013, and the
Action Plan of the Anti-terrorist Center for 2011. - Feb. 22: The Bulgarian Consultative National Security Council,
summoned by President Georgi Parvanov after the recent governmental
wiretapping scandal, will meet to discuss internal security and meeting
Schengen requirements. - Feb. 23: Greece’s largest labor union will hold a general strike over proposed austerity measures.
- Feb. 23: Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Elmar Mammadyarov will meet
with Ukrainian Foreign Minister Uruguayan Foreign Minister in Kiev to
discuss bilateral and regional cooperation. - Feb. 23-24: Uruguayan Foreign Minister Luis Almagro will visit Spain.
- Feb. 24: Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin will meet with
European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso in Brussels to discuss
energy and trade foreign policy. - Feb. 24: Russia will launch the new-generation Glonass-K navigation satellite.
- Feb. 24-25: King Juan Carlos I and Queen Sofia of Spain will visit
Russia to meet with President Dmitri Medvedev and participate in the
opening of the Prado in the Hermitage exhibition for the Year of Spain
in Russia and Year of Russia in Spain events. - Feb. 24: NATO Secretary-General Anders Fogh Rasmussen will travel to
Ukraine to meet with President Viktor Yanukovich, Prime Minister
Nikolai Azarov, and Foreign Minister Uruguayan Foreign Minister. He will
also lecture students at a Kiev university. - Feb. 24-25: Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin and the Russian
government will meet with the European Commission in Brussels to hold
direct talks on energy trade, human rights, food import standards and
conflicts in which Russia is suspected of being involved. - Feb. 25: Irish elections will be held.
MIDDLE EAST/SOUTH ASIA
- Unspecified Date: Egyptian Prime Minister Ahmed Shafiq is expected to announce the ministers of his new emergency Cabinet.
- Feb. 21: The budget session of the Indian Parliament will begin.
- Feb. 21: Iraq’s train network will cease all operations because of a cut in state aid needed to pay staff.
- Feb. 21: The High Court in Mumbai, India, will decide the fate of
Pakistani national Ajmal Kasab, an alleged Lashkar-e-Taiba terrorist in
the Mumbai attacks. - Feb. 21: Georgian Foreign Minister Girgol Vashadze will continue his
two-day visit to Qatar, his first official visit to the country. - Feb. 21-25: Taiwanese Minister of the Council for Economic Planning
and Development Christina Liu and five other federal ministers and
high-profile business leaders will travel to India to promote Taiwanese
business opportunities. - Feb. 22: Afghan President Hamid Karzai will inaugurate his country’s
new parliament after a monthlong delay due to a special court’s
decision on electoral fraud. - Feb. 22: French Economy Minister Christine Lagarde will visit
Tunisia to discuss economic cooperation and to show France’s support for
the new Tunisian new government. - Feb. 22: A U.S. Congressional delegation will visit Middle East.
Consisting of seven Republicans, the delegation will visit Syria, Turkey
and Israel and will discuss regional issues and relations with the
United States. - Feb. 22: EU foreign affairs chief Catherine Ashton is expected to visit Egypt to hold talks with Egyptian officials.
- Feb. 22-24: Iraq is expected to sign an agreement for the Akkas natural gas field after a delay in January.
- Feb. 23-24: Iran will hold its first International Clean Energy
Conference in Kerman where discussions will focus on technological
developments in clean technology energy projects and issues related to
electric power distribution and energy conservation. - Feb. 24: A Bahraini criminal court will resume the trial of 25 suspects held on terrorism-related charges.
- Feb. 25: A “Revolution of Iraqi Rage” demonstration demanding
change, freedom and genuine democracy will be held in central Baghdad’s
Tahrir Square. - Feb. 25: French President Nicolas Sarkozy will visit Turkey to meet
with Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan to discuss Turkey’s EU
membership bid, France’s G-20 presidency and regional issues.
EAST ASIA
- Feb. 21-22: Thailand’s Internal Security Act will continue to be
enforced on the Phra Nakorn, Wattana, Pathumwan, Pomprab Sattru Phai,
Wang Thonglang, Ratchatavee and Dusit districts of Bangkok in order to
manage protests. - Feb. 21-22: Honduran President Porfirio Lobo will continue an
official three-day visit to South Korea and meet with President Lee
Myung Bak to strengthen bilateral economic ties and to discuss regional
and global security issues. - Feb. 21-23: Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev will pay an
official visit to China to meet with President Hu Jintao, Premier Wen
Jiabao, and leading legislator Wu Bangguo. - Feb. 21-23: Pakistani President Asif Ali Zardari will meet with
Japanese Prime Minister Naoto Kan, parliamentary leaders and businessmen
in Japan to strengthen bilateral relations and open new avenues of
cooperation. - Feb. 22: The economic cooperation committee formed by China and
Taiwan will hold its first meeting. The committee will discuss the
Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement and other economic cooperation
opportunities. - Feb. 22: Foreign ministers from Association of Southeast Asian
Nations member states will meet to discuss the recent conflict between
Cambodia and Thailand. - Feb. 23: Honduran President Porfirio Lobo is scheduled to visit Singapore.
- Feb. 23-25: Chinese Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi will visit South
Korea to meet with his South Korean counterpart, Kim Song Hwan, and
discuss a number of issues, including North Korea. He will then travel
to Mongolia to meet the Mongolian foreign minister. - Feb. 23-25: The Chinese National People’s Congress Standing
Committee will meet to make final preparations for the next annual
session, expected to convene in March.
AMERICAS
- Feb. 21: UAE Foreign Minister Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed al-Nahyan will visit Brasilia.
- Feb. 21: Venezuelan state electric firm Corpoelec will cut off power
to 11 mayoralties in Bolivar state if it does not receive payments owed
for electric service. - Feb. 21-23: Latvian Foreign Minister Girts Valdis Kristovskis
continues his five-day visit to Washington to meet with U.S. Secretary
of State Hilary Clinton, as well as with officials from the Defense
Department, National Security Council and the Defense Logistics Agency. - Feb. 22: The first Pakistan-U.S.-Afghanistan trilateral talk will be
held in Washington. U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and her
Pakistani and Afghani counterparts will attend the summit. - Feb. 22: French Foreign Minister Michelle Alliot-Marie is scheduled to visit Brazil.
- Feb. 22: Cabinet ministers from the Venezuelan economic and productive sectors will address the National Assembly.
- Feb. 22-25: Peru and Mexico will hold a meeting in Mexico City to
make a legal revision to the text for the approval of a bilateral free
trade agreement. - Feb. 23: Salvadorian President Mauricio Funes will visit Colombia.
Funes is scheduled to meet with Colombian President Juan Manuel Santos
and business representatives. - Feb. 25: Paraguayan President Fernando Lugo will meet with Argentine
President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner to discuss impediments to
imports of Paraguayan products into Argentina.
AFRICA
- Feb. 21: The heads of state from South Africa, Chad, Tanzania,
Burkina Faso and Mauritania will meet in Cote d’Ivoire as constituents
of an African Union panel tasked to solve the ongoing crisis in the
country. - Feb. 21: Sudan’s National Assembly will resume sessions and will approve the Southern Sudan referendum results.
- Feb. 22-25: A British parliamentary delegation led by Baroness
Glenys Elizabeth Kinnock will travel to Sudan to meet with Sudanese
officials and discuss the post-referendum situation. - Feb. 25: Petroleum companies Royal Dutch Shell and BP will meet with
South African Energy Minister Dipuo Peters to discuss the South African
purchase of a stake in their Sapref oil refinery, located in Durban.
»
- 11626 reads
- Printer-friendly version
- Send to friend
- advertisements -
While Stratfor looks over yonder they are missing the big story as usual.....
Who gives a fuck about Arabs rioting? They do this every generation yet still the same overlords rule...military. We can deal with that.
Wisconsin however seems to be the start of a real revolution in the good 'ol US ofA. This has the potential of igniting the rest of the states against the status quo....public unions, welfare, etc.......this could get out of hand real quick like....
Yeah, really useful comment section.
Korg is right.
The situation in Wisconsin could be a watershed event here at home. Keep a close eye on it.
The commies rioted in Europe already over the same things in Greece, France, UK. I don't put the Irish in the same boat, they got sold out by their own to the EU.
Our commies are trying to do the same thing here. Shared sacrifice is apparently for everybody else.
Yeah, commies...and you're an aeroplane.
Why don't you go shoot some crocodile and make youreself a nice new pair of cowboy top-boots you redneck.
Are we a bit touchy this morning?
No Colonel, just having a common sense. Not that I'm implying you know what it means.
Governor of Wisconsin created a 140 million business tax break and now seeks to balance that with 140 million reduction in state labour costs.
Sure sounds like we have reds under the bed. More like jackboots in the forehead.
+1000
What can you expect from corporate's whore.
+1000
I see you're not too popular with the libertarian loonies on this board. F 'em.
Oil? Ring a bell? I guess not...
Revolution in West? Americans are fat, satisfied with each other and in hedonic depression as are Europeans. I wouldn't count on that.
Spot on; great call.
"Geopolitical intelligence" lol
Stratfor is no Debka, but still good for the lols.
A lot of unanswered questions. I'm sure Podesta wished Stratfor could tell him what was going on.
I beg to disagree about "who gives a... about Arabs rioting". More "Arab rioting" sends the sends the price of petrol everywhere to twice the amount you pay now. So far, it's much more important for you than Wisconsin.
Nice article +1
it seems the biggest event will be the so far apparently unrelenting tear in silver.
sokhmate, I agree and also want to point out that it is all related.
silver is on a tear due to some rift in the program. For such six sigma (nine sigma???) times, the clubbers in rome had diversionary tactics. In the old days, a high-jacking would do the trick.
Delta Force and Mogadishu had cemented that.
Now, we are looking at a geo-political/financial/societal quagmire like never before.
And all connected.
The network effect takes "effect" in a binary moment after much sub-surface build-up. If you are sufficiently tuned, you can look at a standing wave and understand it's full, energetic potential. Like a bow-string. Shooting a Silver Arrow.
Next step, civil-war. Notice the regional flash-points are all nerve centers. Wisconsin literally and figuratively. The extremes of right and left co-existed here in relative peace for quite some time. Now they've been brough to a sudden head-lock. pitted. divided. probably conquered.
The US is generally ripe to fall. So is Europe at it's rim and spiralling inwards everyday.
The ME needs no telling of at this time. Iran and pakistan.... again, well known. Afghanistan...tragedy continues to unfold.
China getting a little Jasmine love. And all the residual whipped-growth bursting problems.
Russia looking goodish (surprise).
The golden triangle remains it's usual poor self, easy to tip into chaos at any time (burma and Thailand have been fighting lately, border skirmishes).
India....tinder box. And now cricket fever next 3 months out...enflamed passions all around, huge number of multi-ten-thousand spectator matches, some, like India/Pakistan always edgy. Plus terrorist bogeyman hangs heavy.
Japan....long time on life-support but military starting to rumble...
Oz-hammered, caught inward and Sino-Japano-UK playground anyways.
South america....long time tinderbox. Mexico going nuts....
Such a momentously charged time.
Beauty is that it can be taken either way, and yet will go towars th epredictable, cycle driven, violent, destructive one.
Silver is the best near term real-life balm.
Apologies for the long post, but the picture kept thrusting itself before me.
I missed counting Indonesia/Malaysia, again with deep issues of their own and Indonesian muslim's showing tremendous solidarity with their bretheren world-wide in times ofimpending or real crisis.
Africa...gone....
Food...rising rising.
Weather nuts.
Seismology...trembling earth.
So the distributed civil-unrest will magically be twittered into a full fledged global conflag.
And the "Leaders" will wring their hands and say they had to.
Through a lens...darkly...
ORI
http://aadivaahan.wordpress.com/2011/02/16/truth-about-america-truth-about-us/
Nothing 'magical' about it:
Are there still nutjobs believing that Protocols of Zion Wisemen were really made by Jews. Get back under the rock. Btw. it was written by russian Tzarist secret police.
From RUSSIA, With L ø V E .
From what is reported, the unemployment rates for younger males in the rioting countries is very high. People want to EAT and have a FEW comforts. Can you blame them? This world has finite resources and America can no longer exploit cheap labor without growing serious consequences. The road America is on will not lead to employment.....there is no new technology that will change this fate. And the rank and file American has to understand that 'the party is over'......the rest of the world is catching up fast. The Wisconson public employees bitching about what amounts to a 15% cut in compensation.......wait until its 50% or more.
To me the solution is simple:
1. Repatriate jobs, adjust to a lower standard of living, cut entitlements to the bare bone (make people work for them) and try to not create war in doing so OR
2. Focus on military technology and try to conquer what we need to maintain our obscene standard of living and entitlements (compared to the rest of the world)
All we are now is giving the alcoholic another binge by printing money....but this time there is no DUI or small consequences (because the government won't bust itself) and the only thing to get the country sober is to crash (could be fatal or could come out of it unscathed but awoken to the change of living within ones means)
Do we wish to live within our means voluntarily or do we have to be forced????
3. Cut the hydra sucking the biggest tit - bye bye Pentagon parasites, you go make war somewhere else.
I believe in case of bankrupcy you have a right-wing insurrection with all it's partiotism, traditions, religion (god's punishing us for we sinned) blah blah blah russia style.
10-2
1. aint gonna happen voluntarily...it just aint gonna
2. possible. the cheese-head protest in WI is interesting from the standpoint of seeing a possible spark to flame elsewhere(OH had sizable protests last week)........"entitlements" are gonna start going away quickly and USanians dont like that...
itsa crash then,settled. unless the ponzi-zombie-spectacle finds new veins to suck, which is always possible despite all of our collective intelligence forecasting collapse. do not underestimate the inertia of denial.
To be fair, I suppose STRATFOR raises some useful points but I canceled the free subscription after several months of articles like the above, which are attention-catching but at the end they raise more questions than answers. John Mauldin recommends it highly but he is also a pastmaster of writing several thousand words while concluding nothing of real importance. Maybe the paid subscription articles come across with the real thing. Like probabilities of said events affecting asset values.
Why does zero hedge promotes owning the physical asset? Because we are on the cusp of war if we don't change course (and even then war is quite possible). Wisconson's teachers bitching about their compensation won't mean shit to them when a gun is pointed at their head. But then again, the average American civil servant might file a grievance and throw a tantrum thinking that will make the gun go away until the trigger is pulled.
Dude, StratFor has been selling the same pile of manure for over a decade,
yeah sure, in 1998 it seemed cutting edge,
then you realized they are cutting through an infinite amount of horse shit.
With a dull spoon.
Stratfor is overrated. The supposed "intelligence" consists in a series of rhetorical questions and a list of meetings scheduled to take place hither, thither and yon. About the only useful bit of information is that the trains are scheduled to stop running in Iraq this week.
That tidbit at least provides perspective on the outcome of the illegal invasion and occupation of that country.
Stratfor didn't mention this little known shortage...
"Peak Phosphorus It's an essential, if underappreciated component of our daily lives, and a key link in the global food chain. And it's running out.From Kansas to China's Sichuan province, farmers treat their fields with phosphorus-rich fertilizer to increase the yield of their crops. What happens next, however, receives relatively little attention. Large amounts of this resource are lost from farm fields, through soil erosion and runoff, and down swirling toilets, through our urine and feces. Although seemingly mundane, this process cannot continue indefinitely. Our dwindling supply of phosphorus, a primary component underlying the growth of global agricultural production, threatens to disrupt food security across the planet during the coming century. This is the gravest natural resource shortage you've never heard of."
...and where are the reserves of Phosphorus?
Nearly 90 percent of the world's estimated phosphorus reserves are found in five countries: Morocco, China, South Africa, Jordan, and the United States. In comparison, the 12 countries that make up the OPEC cartel control only 75 percent of the world's oil reserves."
http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2010/04/20/peak_phosphorus?page=0,0
Stratfor is plain out of date and outclassed by citizen journalism on the web. Reports out of Benghazi are that military units joined forces with the protestors to attack the Pretorian guard, protestors reported to have access to small arms and tanks!! Benghazi is now occupied by the protestors and they appear to have means to defend themselves hence son of Gaddafi speaking on possible "civil war."
+++++ Yes, today's news comes from the people. ZH is tops. MSM had their opportunity to provide real, unbiased news and they chose not to. Whenever a commodity is suppressed a black market for it emerges. News is a commodity. You go Tyler!
Stratfor is great at asking questions, catching headlines from Reuters and putting out the worldwide social calendar...after that..weak sauce.
Riots in Ras Lanuf (huge oil producing town). BP and Spain could end up with some serious exposure.
With no announcement that I saw and nothing more than a small sign at my bank, the FDIC has gone back to unlimited account protection on transaction bank accounts (basically, non interest bearing accounts). The limit was $100,000, then bumped to $250,000 during the "financial crisis" then bumped to unlimited when things got worse. After everything settled down they dropped it back to $250,000. Now it is back to unlimited. Anyone else seen this? Who made this decision and what is it that they are afraid of? What do they know that they are not telling us? Someone up the chain sees at least the possibility of bank instability, a bank run or some other financial event. This can't be just a random decision, there has to be a reason behind it.
It is a con! Simply gives the appearance of higher levels of protection - to make people feel more secure-yet they are unable to cover the current exposure if SHTF. FDIC reserve accounts has -20 Billion available to cover something like 5.5T in consumer checking & savings account cash. Restoration plan is to bring the reserve account up to 1.35% of insured deposits by 9/30/20
http://www.fdic.gov/deposit/insurance/2010-27042.pdf
Sure it's a con, but why the change right now? Last time they did it the financial world was supposedly coming to an end. This time there isn't anything you could point a finger at and say "aha, that is why they are doing it". It's like they think something is going to happen and they want to be ahead of the curve, instead of being seen to be only reacting to a situation. Maybe I'm just too suspicious, but I'd sure like to know "why now"?
I can only speculate, but if QE creates wealth effect, end of QE would create poverty effect, no? Unemployment climbs on the resultant economic contraction? I don't think QE will actually end, but maybe they are testing scenarios...
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — The Federal Reserve is requiring 19 banks that underwent U.S.-mandated “stress tests” to now test their capital against a recession scenario in which the unemployment rate rises to 11%, according to a report Thursday. http://www.marketwatch.com/story/banks-told-to-test-for-11-unemployment-report-2011-02-17?dist=afterbell
yes, i have never heard of stratfor, clicked the link, non events listed. juniorish from my point of view. cliff notes of yesterday, kinda like robo's charts.