You're now on the archive server. Commenting has been disabled.
Stunner: NFP Up Just 18K, Unemployment Rate 9.2%, Household Survey Down 445,000, Birth Death +131,000
Absolute disaster. Total jobs per the establishment survey: +18K on expectations of 105K, Private Jobs + 57K on expectations of 132K. Last month total was revised from 54K to 25K. Combined April and May revision down 44K. The household survey was down by 445K from 139,779 to 139,334. Birth death adjustment + 131K. Complete humiliation for Wall Street's economists, the lowest prediction of whom came Bob Brusca at +60K. From the NFP: "Nonfarm payroll employment was essentially unchanged in June (+18,000), and the unemployment rate was little changed at 9.2 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment in most major private-sector industries changed little over the month. Government employment continued to trend down." It is time for Joe LaVorgna to retire, with his 175K forecast, or off by a factor of 972%.
Birth Death:
Some key jobs categories:
Employment in government continued to trend down over the month (-39,000). Federal employment declined by 14,000 in June. Employment in both state government and local government continued to trend down over the month and has been falling since the second half of 2008.
Manufacturing employment changed little in June. Following gains totaling 164,000 between November 2010 and April 2011, employment in this industry has been flat for the past 2 months. In June, job gains in fabricated metal products (+8,000) were partially offset by a loss in wood products (-5,000).
Construction employment was essentially unchanged in June. After having fallen sharply during the 2007-09 period, employment in construction has shown little movement on net since early 2010.
There is no sugarcoating this report. Absolutely abysmal.
»
- 24843 reads
- Printer-friendly version
- Send to friend
This in from CNNMoney...
Mayday, mayday!
So without the birth/death adjustment, we are -75k.
QE3->do();
o yeah , you know it!
Hey LaVorgna, go to hell you hack fucking loser.
Hey! Cantstandya!
Someone needs to start a US employment ETF that I can short - maybe triple leveredged!
My supple-breated friend, metals are enjoying the Keynesian Failure.
Perhaps the real no. is above 20% unemployment.
Probably higher unemployment is the norm. The numbers given are most likely those still employed with fultime positions. The number crunchers probably didn't read "Fudging Numbers for Dummies".
5-yr. down 14 bps; 7-yr. down 13 bps. Middle of curve = place leveraged carry-traders go to die.
why hire?...gotta keep the earnings report looking good to keep the market cookin
We all need not lose sight of the simple facts. Unemployment no longer exists. The Government rolls of employee's grow larger. There is only the illusion of transition. It is my belief this has always been the plan. Knowing the expiration of the current plan was assured and rapidly approaching...the "transition" plan was creating the circumstances in the economy where the majority would fall under the government umbrella of protection. ie If you want your belly full sit down and shut up......and not in that order! Here is all one needs to "visualize" the current situation. Imagine if today we still had soup lines instead of the virtually anonymous/camouflaged food stamp. Unless you are unemployed(and cognizant), you don't perceive the enormity of the problem with today's population.
You're nuts if you think that J6P in the U.S., who has become accustomed to a live of 60 inch plasma TV's and Las Vegas vacations, is going to be happy sitting at home getting his food stamps. A lifestyle lost forever into something dark and dingy makes people angry.
I am now part of a very exclusive club. A June Hire. 1 of 350 (average per state). I am available for autographs and parties. Just contact my publicist.
hah! Congratulations.
ORI
Not that exclusive. I am a June hire as well. and a +25% raise so life is kicking ass right now.
Use the time to create a business. Working for others is best only in the short-term.
Disagree. Much easier to leech off productive business than it is to start your own, with the requisite parasites.
LMAO!
Are you sure you want to be invited to one of my parties?
short obama.
Joey L...him just a lil guy....
ASSERT(QE3 != NULL);
I really have to ask how bad the REAL number is...we all know the Govt wouldn't issue the REAL number. Adjustments in the next few months will show downward revisions.....Bye Bye Obamarama!
It's an Obama-nation!
Obama Bin Lyin' about something...
"...how bad the real number is..."
Fucking bad. I'm a union rep. (15 years) and I can tell you that between 1 and 2 million educators/other-staff were permanently (not just for the summer) laid off as of July 1--give or take a month due to the 57,000 different districts across the country. Those are real people that no longer--many never will--have real jobs. That just can't fucking hide something like that; I've mentioned this a couple of times here at ZH.
Obama=One-Termer, just like Jimmy "Peanuts" Carter and George H.W. "Pappy" Bush, all three of whom failed to recognize, and act, on the fundamental problem facing their respective terms.
Carter - energy prices; Bush I - taxes, and now Obama - JOBS.
What I would like to know is...to whom will corporate USA sell its products, including cheap plastic crap from China, once the middle class is destroyed. Krugman is wrong: the wealthy will not consume enough to make up for an impoverished 90% lower class (including the former middle class).
How's all that "hope and change" working out for everyone.
It's dripping off their chins.
Can you elaborate or right an article on this? It is exactly what I have been trying to tell people. You can't pull 485 billion of state and union support (obama's pay off for getting elected) and it not roll down hill. I try to explain this to people and I get this glazed stare. I don't know anyone who (except those who are effected) understands what this is going to mean. Welcome back Carter (Obama).
Bye Bye Obamarama!
I dunno, he's pretty good at promising free lunches.
But after 3 years of eating shit sandwiches... is the ignorant Amerikan public still buying it? As seen on TeeVee...
YES, OBAMA NEEDS TO INTRODUCE A "FREE CONDOM FOR ALL" PROJECT TO GET THE BIRTH NUMBER DOWN!!!
I know its hard to understand Belgium irony..BUT it the amount of NEW small business created each month--goofy...not new welfare babies..
+ .5
itym:
while true;do QE$((X++))->do();done
for(;;) {QE()}
#DEFINE EVER ;;
for(;;) compiles, try it.
It should be:
int x=1
for (;;) { QE(x++); }
No, no, no. Remember, we are officially out of the recession. It ended about two years ago. We are just too stoopid to know it. These numbers are part of a vast right wing conspiracy to undermine the genius of Obama and the central planners.
Yes, it's in their conspiracy guide book right next to tax cuts for corporate jet owners and slashing entitlements. What monsters!
/* reminder to self: inflation is transitory */
function qe~($debt){
debt++;
return debt;
}
if($debt){
qe~($debt);
}
6a6yl0n iz burn bitxez...
Birth death adjustment + 131K
Silly me.. What was I thinking....
LOL, so there was no Earthquake in Japan in June.
There were no Tornadoes on Wall Street in June.
No Blizzards in Des Moines in June.
No Hurricanes in June.
No comets hitting the earth in June.
So WTF is the excuse this time?
It's just transient. We'll be back to green shoots on Monday.
Monday's hopium junkie day. And Tuesday too. Make that Wednesday as well. Shit, might as well make it all week.
Twist II bitchezz
The technical term is "dip".
See my comment from "It's transitory," 6/3/11
"There is not a railroad in the country, it seems to me, that doesn't have a few branches running at a deficit. We're not the only ones. It's a national condition—a temporary national condition."
The Texas-Western Railroad went bankrupt last month. They closed the Queensborough Bridge yesterday for temporary repairs. Oh well, what's the use? Who is John Galt?"
You just happened to choose the one week when we had a little trouble with our motive power—our new engines are on order, but there's been a slight delay—you know what a problem we're having with the manufacturers of locomotives—but it's only temporary."
He smiled sadly, shaking his head. "No, Miss Taggart. There aren't any new brands made anywhere in the world. Even the old ones are going, one after another. There's only five or six kinds left selling now.
There used to be dozens. People aren't making anything new any more."
"They will. That's only temporary."
"You and I will always be there to save the country from the consequences of their actions." He got up; he said, pacing the office, "Colorado isn't going to be stopped. You'll pull it through. Then Dan Conway will be back, and others. All that lunacy is temporary.
"It's only a question of time, Mr. Rearden," the man said placatingly. "Just a temporary delay. Just to give our economy a chance to get stabilized. If you'd only wait for a couple of years—"
I feel abjectly guilty if this proved insufficient. Rest assured that it will not happen again. It is only a temporary emergency. By next winter, we shall have the Wyatt fields back in production, and conditions will return to normal.
She had spent months fighting the men of Jim's Board of Directors, who said that the national emergency was only temporary and a track that had lasted for ten years could well last for another winter, until spring, when conditions would improve, as Mr. Wesley Mouch had promised.
While we all realize, of course, that this is only temporary, still, for the moment, it has made the railroad situation approach a stage that may well be described as desperate.
Trial-and-error is the only pragmatic rule of action. We'll just keep on trying. If any hardships come up, remember that it's only temporary.
Only for the duration of the national emergency."
He spoke about social planning and the necessity of unanimous rallying in support of the planners. He spoke about discipline, unity, austerity and the patriotic duty of bearing temporary hardships.
"In a precarious period of emergency, like the present," James Taggart was saying, while she looked at the map, "it is dangerous to find ourselves forced to miss pay days and accumulate wage arrears on some of our divisions, a temporary condition, of course, but—"
They keep telling us it's only temporary, the cars are coming and we'll catch up. We won't. There aren't any cars coming.
"I will not assume debts I have no way of repaying."
"What do you mean, no way? That attachment is only some sort of technicality, it's only temporary, everybody knows that!"
"All you want is production without men who're able to produce, isn't it?"
"That . . . that's theory. That's just a theoretical extreme. All we want is a temporary adjustment."
"You've been making those temporary adjustments for years. Don't you see that you've run out of time?"
So it's only a matter of giving him a chance to recover, a helping hand to bridge the gap, a bit of temporary assistance, nothing more.
"I don't see why you should choose to take such a defeatist view of the situation," said Mouch sullenly.
"Defeatist? Do you really expect me to be able to remain in business under your Plan?"
"But it's only temporary!"
"There's no such thing as a temporary suicide."
Great book, prescient message. It's becoming scary how much real life is starting to mirror Miss Rand's dalliance.
Her logic is flawless, lack of proper principles --> no morals --> bad ends.
There was recently a massive snowstorm in a desert in Chile/Bolivia ... one of the driest places on earth.
Cats and dogs ... you know the rest.
And don't foget Elenin is on the way and it is intelligently controlled.
Interestign bartanist.
But you say it so gently.
Ele(Ven)Nin(e). ;-) You know the date.
Dead! Ahead!
ORI
http://aadivaahan.wordpress.com/2011/07/04/a-year-and-a-day-later/
you are not intelligently controlled
People are scared about the lack of disasters and excuses.
That's funny. I get it.
Well, there was a bit of flooding. Just sayin.
I got a hangnail -- surely that counts.
Joe Biden's hemorrhoids were unseasonably painful, lower NFP for June...
does 'natural disaster' stock go to shit before it happens, during, or immediately after . . . ?
Floods in the upper central and midwest states, of course...
...and I was thinking all the time that this birth/death adjustment had something to do with abortions.
You can't just deduct B/D, it's less than total, maybe 1/2, due to other factors. Mish explains on his blog (Mike Shedlock)
But it's corrupted, for sure.
I'm no good at math, as the captcha always tells me, but isn't 18000 - 131,000 = -113,000?
This in from Gold in USD...
Vertical, Bitches.
Someone smells a fresh round of dollar printing......
not for a couple of months
You do know stocks have priced in QE7 already don't you?
I hope that the metals don't reflect QE7 yet..
I still have 50+ years to work and collect metal.
These suppressed prices are a giveaway to those starting out in the labor force.
I just called my new boat the QE3 :)
+18K......I have told this story beofre, but I ran into a bunch of bankers at a hotel once. I asked them if they thought QE3 was coming and they all looked at me as if I ask them a quantum physics question. Finally, one banker looks up to me and say, "Do you mean that highway goingto Toronto?" Fucking machine cogs.
No surprise there. I spoke with a mortgage broker about my home loan and he had no idea what QEx was either. My friend who retired as a Regions Bank exec called me a liar when I told him how much the Fed was holding in "reserves". Sent him an email with a nice chart and never heard from him again. There go the free lunches. Gotta keep my mouth shut.
In my personal experience, bankers are a more socially polished and less shrewd version of used-car salesmen, no, make that used-trailer salesmen.
I think you are being kind..
The ignorance of "money managers" has been the number one reason I withdrew my entire 401K. I had to convince my company to "fire" me for the day and rehire the next. Gladly took tax penalty hit and gladly pushed the entire lot into PMs.
I cannot wait for the day when the tide finally goes out for all those swimming in the water pool.
I am in the process of emptying my 401k because I don't trust anyone on Wall Street or Washington any longer.
Whey did you have your company fire and rehire you?
There is a provision that is being snuck into many 401K plans that will NOT allow withdrawal of 401K unless the person retires or is no longer with the company. My company had this provision in the plan, so the only option I would have had was to borrow from my 401K - hence 30% of ALL 401ks are now borrowed against (http://www.zerohedge.com/article/record-number-people-have-taken-out-loan-out-against-their-401k)
All of these people that think 401ks are actually theirs.
Regions Bank, as a rule, is the biggest nest of Douchebaggery in the civilized world.
As a rule.
To give him his dues, he started with the "company" when it was a local bank, Commercial National Bank of Arkansas, and stayed thru 4 buy-outs. CNB was my first bank account back in 1974 after I got out of the Air Force. They were great folks and financed many of my construction loans. I left them in the early 1990s -- couldn't stomach the corporate atmosphere and having to break in new branch managers all the time.
I was amazed how little my real estate broker new about interest rates, the Fed, government borrowing, taxes or anything financial related to her industry.
you misunderstood. Toronto is where they will seek asylum
I wonder how much of the ramp in the stock market from last week was based on predictions of a strong jobs number? I also wonder how little of it will get sold off now that the number came in low?
Down 100 in the Dow so far. Weeeeeeeeee......thank god for the 700 point ramp up over the last weeks right?
Don't underestimate the reselient of the "market" Central Bank!! It will most likely climb back over the positive territory at closing, like it did many times before. The norm now is to disregard the bad news and buy the good news......it's all fucked up!
Is this a 'black Friday?"
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q1ZV4Mx7tw8&feature=player_detailpage
Do you know the difference between the 1870's and the 1970's ?
In the 1870's a dildo was a Steely Dan
In the 1970' s 2 dildos were Steely Dan
After the huge ramp we've seen, it should be a Black Friday. But something tells me it won't happen.
ABANDONED BABY DOJI... NICE.
This will be shrugged off. That is the party line. Shrugged. Nothing to see here kids, just keep moving along. But keep in mind, the market rallied on all the bad reports during QE I/II. So everything will be fine.
Except for the no QE part, right?
Sure is funny how all those who want the gov't to get out of our lives are asking where the jobs are... If you want the gov't gone you better get used to some big job losses. Can't have it both ways!
Me? Personally? Nice of you to ask. I'd go for a couple hundred thousand federal and state jobs lost every month! That includes "public unions", what an oxymoron. But I'd not be bitchin' about the jobless rate.
Here's what your "Where are the jobs!!" mantra gets ya, Mr. Boner. You need to be cheering the elevated gov't job losses, not whining at the 9.2 rate.
Are you saying that the government creates employment or just that unemployment will rise because we fire more government people? We should downsize government when times are good but then no one is interested. Government is always a dead weight loss on the economy. Keynes was wrong to add it into the GDP. It should be subtracted. The nation with the smallest government sector wins.
I'm saying both. It creates its own jobs relative to how much money it has. Saving for a rainy day is not part of the plan. If a person "works" and gets a check, that's employment. If they no longer have that arrangement, they are "unemployed". Nowhere did I say that a gov't job was a necessary nor good job. For the most part they are created to help govern (read: oppress).
Wouldn't you rather be discussing whether the sky is red or green?!
You cad! You and your trick questions. I'm not falling for it this time.
I've seen it both colors, and several others. All while sober.
I'm just grateful we got the stimulus package passed a couple of years back. If we hadn't, unemployment would have gone all the way up to 8%!!!!
Funny thing is it seems like this summer is when all the roads near my home are finally shovel ready - even my alternate to the alternate routes are under construction. I'd like to kick the planners at the department of transportation right in the jimmies for scheduling all this construction in one area during the same year. A couple of the jobs look overdue, but I'd bet the others are cases of 'use it or lose it'.
I put 10,000 miles on a motorcycle last summer cross the U.S. and Canada, and you couldn't go a 100 miles (on average) without finding yourself in a line, waiting for the road crews to flag you through. So let's see, all those roads were built (on average) on $2 - $10 oil; we're r rebuilding them on $100 oil--when we're broke and have relatively little oil. Conclusions about duration of road building and/or the future value of the U.S. dollar should those roads get rebuilt?
Interesting. And keep in mind asphalt is made of oil. So the asphalt poured cost a lot more.
Government spending (or investment as obama calls it) sure can built a lot of useless infrastructure, the problem is it can't afford to maintain it.
Ever hear of a white elephant.
It comes back to my argument of why am I paying road taxes for a road that serves 2houses in the middle of nowhere when the road me and 1,000 other people drive a day isn't maintained.
LaVorgna and Liesman should walk hand-in-hand into the sunset, to retire together in some tropical clime that embraces their statist views on economics. Venezuela, say.
"Bienvenidos a Venezuela, Esteban y Jose !"
http://www.uncoverage.net/wp-content/uploads/2010/03/hugo_chavez_parrot1...
As long as their pensions are not inflation indexed.
Seriously:
WHAT is wrong with America? Why do our news media outlets put people like Doosh bag's Joe La V on TV?
It is damaging to the sheeple!! We need a revolution!
The media outlet thing is a lot bigger than America. The latest updates on the Murdoch phone hacking murdered teen British PM spokemodel is a perfect example.
Flash! This just in from Reuters!
World financial markets are like a pie crust stretched across the foof of a volcano!
Fu Manchu is about to pull the lever to the trap door!
Warbucks signals the trusty Punjab to cut the cords to the rope bridge!
Grease the skids! Happy tobogganing!
Ouch. Didn't see that one coming, did you?
i said 45-60K in a prior thread. so yes, i saw it coming.
45-60K? Uh, off by 300% qualifies as saw it coming? You must be an economist.
so you were only out by 100% -200%? you could get a job on wall street with forcasting like that :)
good to see the "jobless recovery" remains on track
I think the major disconnect comes from language and definitions of recovery and specifically who the “recovery” is targeted to. There, sure as shit, has been a wonderful recovery since 2008, but therein lies the rub. The recovery has been for Wall Street cronies in higher nominal salaries that have outpaced inflation and sky-high bonuses. The definition of recovery hinges on whom is being referred to in that recovery. Primary dealers, and the military industrial complex, are the only sectors that have recovered quite remarkable and have taken over the economy and al measures of GDP.
If it were not for bombs being dropped on every corner of the world and derivative bombs being carpeted over every established country out there, there would be no GDP to measure anymore. The rest of us? Fuck us, fuck us in the goat ass. Bahahahahahaa
BERNANKE
ECONOMY
Ay, ay, a scratch, a scratch; marry, 'tis enough.
They are probably contemplating the stimulative effects of bombing themselves (US) at this point--not unlike the Bush/Cheney/Rumsfeld attempt when they allowed 9-11 to happen. Obama: "If that hick can do it, I can. I can! I CAN!"
Remember both sides of the aisle think creative destruction is net GDP positive, so some forced broken windows would indeed make sense.
"We are destroying our economy here so those terrorists over there can't do it. Viva Amerika!"
Milo Minderbinder already showed us the way. We should let the chinese pay us to bomb ourselves, and since everyone owns a share, everyone wins!!
These wily economists have to feign being dimwitted to keep their jobs. They need to buy PM's too!
Whiffed it
Bravo Joe! Great miss!
@Manzilla
L-O-L.
liesman was right about one thing last month, the data was wrong...but they cut it almost 30k :)
Doh!
Who ordered the lies to stop!?
Oh well, what's obumma gotta say about things...
Who ordered the lies to stop!?
The same dude that missed censoring Mark Halperin's comment about Hussein was asleep at the 'fudge-the-numbers' switch.
Stay tuned for his daily telepromtercast.... he will tell you what to think.
I am being told to think about ass-to-ass unicorn skittle shitting. Taste the rainbow.
Do the whore's on CNBS not know how stupid they come off trying to spin this shit positive. " creative destruction" no one selling records @ record stores.. Really Joe really... LMMFAO...
Who said the lies stopped? You think those numbers are bad just wait until the revised figures come out!
Good point. These numbers will get revised down much more a year from now when no one is looking.
and hilarity ensues....
and Hilar(it)y ensues? Fore-shadowing?
Dollar rally, baby!
Holy f*ck, every analyst was wrong! This is horrible data. Glad I am short. But this is beyond my wildest dreams of Wall Street incompetence, ADP lies, and economic breakdown.
It's all part of the debt ceiling drama. Between that and the 'end' of QE, it's time for the economy to officially tank, according to the script.
Otherwise, how can they get everybody to beg to be saved?
...
Only against CAD.. about to erase all gains from past 24 hours in EUR. Like I said before, I wouldn't be betting in this imminent USD rally everyone thinks is about to come like last summer. 50/50 shot of that at best. I'm thinking 40/60 now.. and declining.
Metal is rallying, better raise the margins!
Can't let the real price of money reflect cracks in the system.
I thought so too. But the Euro has soared since 8:30. Up 100 pips. ??????????????
Heh, after the last fiasco is this a surprise?
Long way down.
That explains the massive ramp job in the last days.
ES still not red. Amazing.
The stock market in no way reflects macroeconomic reality. It is nothing but an outlet for directing easy money to Wall Street (compliments of The Great Chairsatan).
The market, with 1% of the nation owning 90% of the stock, is a counterindicator of how John Q. Public is doing; the higher it goes, the more The People have lost.
absolutely correct!
i think they are red now cursive
My mouth fell open in absolute astonishment.
This number is completely f**ked.
So, what about that ADP number yesterday then?
Meaningless.. as ALWAYS.. I simply don't know why they even release it..
They release it so that there can be two bites at the apple. Watch the MSM spin the "contrast" with the (now more reliable) ADP print yesterday. Either ADP confirms good news, stands alone as the better news, or is ignored for inferiority.
The more meaningful is the prior month revision. Almost HALVED.
Buy. The. Fucking. Dip.
Just another in a long line of false alarms to bait more shorts.