Stunner: NFP Up Just 18K, Unemployment Rate 9.2%, Household Survey Down 445,000, Birth Death +131,000

Tyler Durden's picture

Absolute disaster. Total jobs per the establishment survey: +18K on expectations of 105K, Private Jobs + 57K on expectations of 132K. Last month total was revised from 54K to 25K. Combined April and May revision down 44K. The household survey was down by 445K from 139,779 to 139,334. Birth death adjustment + 131K. Complete humiliation for Wall Street's economists, the lowest prediction of whom came Bob Brusca at +60K. From the NFP: "Nonfarm payroll employment was essentially unchanged in June (+18,000), and the unemployment rate was little changed at 9.2 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor  Statistics reported today. Employment in most major private-sector industries changed little over the month. Government employment continued to trend down." It is time for Joe LaVorgna to retire, with his 175K forecast, or off by a factor of 972%.

Birth Death:

Some key jobs categories:

Employment in government continued to trend down over the month (-39,000). Federal  employment declined by 14,000 in June. Employment in both state government and local government continued to trend down over the month and has been falling since the second half of 2008.

Manufacturing employment changed little in June. Following gains totaling 164,000 between November 2010 and April 2011, employment in this industry has been flat for the past 2 months. In June, job gains in fabricated metal products (+8,000) were partially offset by a loss in wood products (-5,000).

Construction employment was essentially unchanged in June. After having fallen sharply during the 2007-09 period, employment in construction has shown little movement on net since early 2010.

There is no sugarcoating this report. Absolutely abysmal.

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mayhem_korner's picture

This in from CNNMoney...

Mayday, mayday! 

Max Hunter's picture

So without the birth/death adjustment, we are -75k.

pesamystik's picture

Hey LaVorgna, go to hell you hack fucking loser.

Pladizow's picture

Someone needs to start a US employment ETF that I can short - maybe triple leveredged!

Cash_is_Trash's picture

My supple-breated friend, metals are enjoying the Keynesian Failure.

Perhaps the real no. is above 20% unemployment.

espirit's picture

Probably higher unemployment is the norm.  The numbers given are most likely those still employed with fultime positions.  The number crunchers probably didn't read "Fudging Numbers for Dummies".

4shzl's picture

5-yr. down 14 bps; 7-yr. down 13 bps.  Middle of curve = place leveraged carry-traders go to die.

brew's picture

why hire?...gotta keep the earnings report looking good to keep the market cookin

agNau's picture

We all need not lose sight of the simple facts. Unemployment no longer exists. The Government rolls of employee's grow larger. There is only the illusion of transition. It is my belief this has always been the plan. Knowing the expiration of the current plan was assured and rapidly approaching...the "transition" plan was creating the circumstances in the economy where the majority would fall under the government umbrella of protection. ie If you want your belly full sit down and shut up......and not in that order! Here is all one needs to "visualize" the current situation. Imagine if today we still had soup lines instead of the virtually anonymous/camouflaged food stamp. Unless you are unemployed(and cognizant), you don't perceive the enormity of the problem with today's population.

ElvisDog's picture

You're nuts if you think that J6P in the U.S., who has become accustomed to a live of 60 inch plasma TV's and Las Vegas vacations, is going to be happy sitting at home getting his food stamps. A lifestyle lost forever into something dark and dingy makes people angry.

doesmybuttlookfatinthis's picture

I am now part of a very exclusive club. A June Hire. 1 of 350 (average per state). I am available for autographs and parties. Just contact my publicist.

SilverRhino's picture

Not that exclusive.   I am a June hire as well.   and a +25% raise so life is kicking ass right now.

CH1's picture

Use the time to create a business. Working for others is best only in the short-term.

Panafrican Funktron Robot's picture

Disagree.  Much easier to leech off productive business than it is to start your own, with the requisite parasites.

Hook Line and Sphincter's picture

Are you sure you want to be invited to one of my parties?

HITMAN56's picture

Joey L...him just a lil guy....

max2205's picture

I really have to ask how bad the REAL number is...we all know the Govt wouldn't issue the REAL number. Adjustments in the next few months will show downward revisions.....Bye Bye Obamarama!

Problem Is's picture

Obama Bin Lyin' about something...

HowardBeale's picture

" bad the real number is..."


Fucking bad. I'm a union rep. (15 years) and I can tell you that between 1 and 2 million educators/other-staff were permanently (not just for the summer) laid off as of July 1--give or take a month due to the 57,000 different districts across the country. Those are real people that no longer--many never will--have real jobs. That just can't fucking hide something like that; I've mentioned this a couple of times here at ZH.

Anaxagoras's picture

Obama=One-Termer, just like Jimmy "Peanuts" Carter and George H.W. "Pappy" Bush, all three of whom failed to recognize, and act, on the fundamental problem facing their respective terms.

Carter - energy prices; Bush I - taxes, and now Obama - JOBS.

What I would like to know whom will corporate USA sell its products, including cheap plastic crap from China, once the middle class is destroyed. Krugman is wrong: the wealthy will not consume enough to make up for an impoverished 90% lower class (including the former middle class).

How's all that "hope and change" working out for everyone.

mtomato2's picture

It's dripping off their chins.

doesmybuttlookfatinthis's picture

Can you elaborate or right an article on this?  It is exactly what I have been trying to tell people. You can't pull 485 billion of state and union support (obama's pay off for getting elected) and it not roll down hill. I try to explain this to people and I get this glazed stare. I don't know anyone who (except those who are effected) understands what this is going to mean.  Welcome back Carter (Obama).

CH1's picture

Bye Bye Obamarama!

I dunno, he's pretty good at promising free lunches.

Problem Is's picture

But after 3 years of eating shit sandwiches... is the ignorant Amerikan public still buying it? As seen on TeeVee...

Sudden Debt's picture




The Axe's picture

I know its hard to understand Belgium irony..BUT it the amount of NEW small business created each month--goofy...not new welfare babies..

i_fly_me's picture

+ .5


while true;do QE$((X++))->do();done

FreedomGuy's picture

No, no, no. Remember, we are officially out of the recession. It ended about two years ago. We are just too stoopid to know it. These numbers are part of a vast right wing conspiracy to undermine the genius of Obama and the central planners.

johngaltier's picture

Yes, it's in their conspiracy guide book right next to tax cuts for corporate jet owners and slashing entitlements. What monsters!

6_7_42's picture

/* reminder to self: inflation is transitory  */

function qe~($debt){


     return debt;






D.O.D.'s picture

6a6yl0n iz burn bitxez...

Max Hunter's picture

So without the birth/death adjustment, we are -75k.

Birth death adjustment + 131K

Silly me.. What was I thinking....

johngaltfla's picture

LOL, so there was no Earthquake in Japan in June.

There were no Tornadoes on Wall Street in June.

No Blizzards in Des Moines in June.

No Hurricanes in June.

No comets hitting the earth in June.

So WTF is the excuse this time?

malikai's picture

It's just transient. We'll be back to green shoots on Monday.

Cash_is_Trash's picture

Monday's hopium junkie day. And Tuesday too. Make that Wednesday as well. Shit, might as well make it all week.

Twist II bitchezz

Thomas's picture

The technical term is "dip". 

mtomato2's picture

See my comment from "It's transitory," 6/3/11


"There is not a railroad in the country, it seems to me, that doesn't have a few branches running at a deficit. We're not the only ones. It's a national condition—a temporary national condition."

The Texas-Western Railroad went bankrupt last month. They closed the Queensborough Bridge yesterday for temporary repairs. Oh well, what's the use? Who is John Galt?"

You just happened to choose the one week when we had a little trouble with our motive power—our new engines are on order, but there's been a slight delay—you know what a problem we're having with the manufacturers of locomotives—but it's only temporary."

He smiled sadly, shaking his head. "No, Miss Taggart. There aren't any new brands made anywhere in the world. Even the old ones are going, one after another. There's only five or six kinds left selling now.
There used to be dozens. People aren't making anything new any more."
"They will. That's only temporary."

"You and I will always be there to save the country from the consequences of their actions." He got up; he said, pacing the office, "Colorado isn't going to be stopped. You'll pull it through. Then Dan Conway will be back, and others. All that lunacy is temporary.

"It's only a question of time, Mr. Rearden," the man said placatingly. "Just a temporary delay. Just to give our economy a chance to get stabilized. If you'd only wait for a couple of years—"

I feel abjectly guilty if this proved insufficient. Rest assured that it will not happen again. It is only a temporary emergency. By next winter, we shall have the Wyatt fields back in production, and conditions will return to normal.

She had spent months fighting the men of Jim's Board of Directors, who said that the national emergency was only temporary and a track that had lasted for ten years could well last for another winter, until spring, when conditions would improve, as Mr. Wesley Mouch had promised.

While we all realize, of course, that this is only temporary, still, for the moment, it has made the railroad situation approach a stage that may well be described as desperate.

Trial-and-error is the only pragmatic rule of action. We'll just keep on trying. If any hardships come up, remember that it's only temporary.
Only for the duration of the national emergency."

He spoke about social planning and the necessity of unanimous rallying in support of the planners. He spoke about discipline, unity, austerity and the patriotic duty of bearing temporary hardships.

"In a precarious period of emergency, like the present," James Taggart was saying, while she looked at the map, "it is dangerous to find ourselves forced to miss pay days and accumulate wage arrears on some of our divisions, a temporary condition, of course, but—"

They keep telling us it's only temporary, the cars are coming and we'll catch up. We won't. There aren't any cars coming.

"I will not assume debts I have no way of repaying."
"What do you mean, no way? That attachment is only some sort of technicality, it's only temporary, everybody knows that!"

"All you want is production without men who're able to produce, isn't it?"
"That . . . that's theory. That's just a theoretical extreme. All we want is a temporary adjustment."
"You've been making those temporary adjustments for years. Don't you see that you've run out of time?"

So it's only a matter of giving him a chance to recover, a helping hand to bridge the gap, a bit of temporary assistance, nothing more.

"I don't see why you should choose to take such a defeatist view of the situation," said Mouch sullenly.
"Defeatist? Do you really expect me to be able to remain in business under your Plan?"
"But it's only temporary!"
"There's no such thing as a temporary suicide."


johngaltier's picture

Great book, prescient message. It's becoming scary how much real life is starting to mirror Miss Rand's dalliance.