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Stunner: NFP Up Just 18K, Unemployment Rate 9.2%, Household Survey Down 445,000, Birth Death +131,000
Absolute disaster. Total jobs per the establishment survey: +18K on expectations of 105K, Private Jobs + 57K on expectations of 132K. Last month total was revised from 54K to 25K. Combined April and May revision down 44K. The household survey was down by 445K from 139,779 to 139,334. Birth death adjustment + 131K. Complete humiliation for Wall Street's economists, the lowest prediction of whom came Bob Brusca at +60K. From the NFP: "Nonfarm payroll employment was essentially unchanged in June (+18,000), and the unemployment rate was little changed at 9.2 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment in most major private-sector industries changed little over the month. Government employment continued to trend down." It is time for Joe LaVorgna to retire, with his 175K forecast, or off by a factor of 972%.
Birth Death:
Some key jobs categories:
Employment in government continued to trend down over the month (-39,000). Federal employment declined by 14,000 in June. Employment in both state government and local government continued to trend down over the month and has been falling since the second half of 2008.
Manufacturing employment changed little in June. Following gains totaling 164,000 between November 2010 and April 2011, employment in this industry has been flat for the past 2 months. In June, job gains in fabricated metal products (+8,000) were partially offset by a loss in wood products (-5,000).
Construction employment was essentially unchanged in June. After having fallen sharply during the 2007-09 period, employment in construction has shown little movement on net since early 2010.
There is no sugarcoating this report. Absolutely abysmal.
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Sure it wasn't the other way around?
There is no certainty in this market. The only thing that is certain is things will keep going up until they dont. We've had shitty numbers for some time now, I dont think unemployment data is going to be the catalyst.
Buy the dip *cringe*
You're right about that. These numbers are so bad that there must be an ulterior motive for letting them through "unadjusted" like this.
OOOOPPPPPSSSSSS!!!!!!!
Prepare for unforeseen consequences .
Seriously? Was there ever going to be a good number printed when Ben needs to get QE3 going shortly?
But, but I thought those companies just couldn't find the talent.?
You'd find more talent in a roofing crew of southern migrant workers.
Breaking laws and telling lies is the only talent on fraud/fag street.
Money does not make anyone smarter.
Agree! Those roofing cats bust some azz.
Gotta blame the education system, I guess. Plus all the other suspects--SNAP and SS recipients, deadbeat homeowners, etc.
Of course, this will prove very useful to cutting the deficit, because it will be trumpeted as the clear proof that business just cannot find the "confidence" needed to hire.
You blame moral hazard... its consequences are broad and far sweeping. This point seems to be lost on the virtual entirety of the population.
I see it as a trickle-down phenomenon. The mass media marketed it with such spectacular success that it arguably became the norm, imo. As to who costs us the serious money and what is the most efficient way to correct the problem, I'd point to the governing Corporate Person/Psychopath as the most appropriate target. Many of us little guys still want the "right thing" . . . while corporations are constitutionally incapable of even comprehending the issue.
Bob, it's much more fundamental than that... I hate to pull out my bear at the dump analogy again (actually it's a favorite of mine), but it's appropriate. If a bear finds a dump with plentiful leftovers, then is the bear likely to go out and kill shit just for the hell of it? Moral hazard lies at the very foundation of the human condition. Whether its top or bottom, humans are inherently drawn to it... it's rudimentary self interest (although, admittedly we MIGHT have a better chance to deny ourselves the dump than the bear).
We don't need to embrace moral hazard anywhere it lies... whether it be small or big... it ALWAYS starts small.
What we need to do at this point is sit down, take a deep breath, count to ten, and admit (despite how painful it may be) that moral hazard has killed us and there is no coming back... no way of moving forward without significant denial of entitlements, not not a complete denial of entitlements. Further, we also have to sack up and take on those who improperly profiteered us into the void (albeit with our help). This will be our seed corn for the next crop year.
I fear we will run after the dump truck when it comes to finally clean up the dump site... we are hopelessly in love with sponging off others and, furthermore, this love has actually made it difficult to not live off others even if we are able bodied and desirous.
CNBS has now mentioned ADP about 50 times in 3 minutes, desperately looking for excuses
It was the snow god-dammit
Summer heat you mean. I bet someone plays it.
Here is some unsolicited advice:
Stop watching CNBS! It is excrement.
i really enjoy it on down days, watching them scramble to make up excuses is the best reality tv out there
no doubt! That's why I created this when the market was tanking in 08...
http://i380.photobucket.com/albums/oo248/blackmarketdata/cnbcfour.jpg
second that. It's like a criminal defendant on the stand
Just a SOFT PATCH....move along....nothing new here.....
Not a soft patch. A big gator-filled swamp.
Watching Bloomberg....Warren is speechless....
Agreed, everything is under control.
So can we please just stop reporting ADP? They are obviously useless!
Does ADP really have any more or less credibility that the BLS? I don't understand why people think the BLS number is the "right" number. The error on the establishment survey is ±100,000, so this month's number is statistically insignificant.
So, this good for the REITs and commercial real estate right?
I have been getting killed for two years with DRV. But I keep saying "This can't go any higher". So I dollar cost average in and continue to get pummeled. But one day I will be rewarded. Fortunetaly I am only using play money for this gamble.
The REITs are so unbelievably ramped up it's sickening. I just watch in pure amazement that they can actual continue to do it literally forever.
yeah when they rallied to new 52Hs, I gave up on my hope of shorting any big drop here. They not only levitate but climb hard
Sir , you cannot make money dollar cost averaging into a x3 ETF due to theta burn. The options used to create those instruments make them purely short term trading strategies unless you are in the middle of a trending move that goes your way practically every day. (i realize you are paper trading)
Build a short in the REITS without leverage and youll be rewarded i guess at some point , when the rugs pulled. But youll never make that money back in the inverse x3s.
+1. All the ETFs eventually grind down to nothing. If you want to make money you short them.
Yes, but if you want to keep your wealth you stay out.
Where does this number figure in the table of bad NFP numbers ?
Obama-dama-ding-dong
ooops !
knew it was bad but...
It's the weathers fault.
it's only 6 feeeettttt downnnnnn
it seems the summer of recovery has a new meaning.
more sheen groots from the bernank.
And brown sharts...
and Stasi and Waffen and Spetnasz and Delta....
Au & Ag sporting huge woody's
Another ho-hum month on the economy with no overall improvement in the labor market. Can the MSM stop trumpeting up about the labor market? It is not going to change any time soon, we have been in a more permanent cycle now with flat or low hiring. What economic force now is going to change this? I honestly do not see it for at least the next few years? Honestly, why should it change if it hasn't changed by now for the better? I distrust any reporting suggesting any kinds of trends supposedly depicting major hiring.
Around the time the stock market bottomed out I remeber asking someone "where are the jobs going to come from to put people back to work?" Since then I've asked a hundred people that question and not one person has been able to answer it. I never hear the "experts" even address it. They just look at the numbers and hope jobs will magically appear across all the categories. People better get used to the idea of a decrease in the standard of living.
LinkedIn, Netflix, Groupon and Facebook will combine to hire 254K people a month til the end of Obama's second term. Of course they will all be H1B's from India. At that point we will be back to 2007 levels. Go America!
What was more surprising was how bullish all the analysts were. Sitting in their desks, watching money roll in to their colleagues, things must look decent. But if you travel, even just a little, you see signs of the stall that has beset the US. This isn't just a summer lull either. People are hunkered down, waiting for the next shoe to drop.
I tell the story of the rich lobbyist I know who was talking about a "housing crisis" that he heard about and read about in 2008 and he "just didn't see it." In his circle of friends, the really rich, times had never been better and continue to remain so
That's consistent with what I've seen and heard. There are folks out there living in a parallel world that is not (yet) in crisis.
Its truly bizarre. When the crash comes and the central planners lose all control , those people living in cloud cuckoo land are going to run around like chickens with their heads cut off. Its going to be quite amusing for a short while actually , until they start acting like barbarians at a Walmart sale. I dont want to be in ANY City at that point in time.
It was the best of times, it was the worst of times....
- Max Fischer, Civis Mundi
That book and 1984 keep invading my mind
The types that spend their lives sailing between St. John and Maine are doing just swell, I can confirm too. They don't remember 2008 either, maybe they saw something in "Town and Country" about it.
Lol CNBC is now talking about a "deflationary spiral" and asking whether we are actually BELOW the Fed's target for inflation. What the hell. QE3 coming in 3..2...1
So right. double positive number. More QE and automatic debt ceiling increase cover. Yeah, US #1, US #1
More like DEFAULT coming in 3...2....1.....
As soon as theres a whiff of QE3 , the commodity complex is going to blast off to the moon. 2K Gold , 70 dollar silver , 150 dollar oil. And Ben knows it. He must be shitting himself.
Maybe it is time to abandon the ADP report. Seems like it is not too reliable of an indicator. Then again, macroeconomic data is of no real concern to HFT algos...
100% Ponzi FUBAR market.
Bullish
+QEn
No rise in weekly earnings, average hours went down because of less work to do. All figures revised negatively... damn, worst jobs report i've seen in a year. And QE2 was not even over by then. Nor had the U.S. government decided on budget cuts. This is going from bad to worse.
Help Wanted: New Unemployment Scapegoat, must be blind, deaf and dumb. Must have bobble head that shakes affirmative when the Barama speaks.
Ya better buy the dip!!!
Nice pic, I think we will rally 100 points on the news.
or about 7 inches in any case...
There is a rally in my pants and she is invited.
Or 4, in your case.
well spazz, it is true you don't have the quite the same effect on me but thanks for your service anyway.
Thanks for your mom's service.
Dammit Leo
I stopped viewing porn on the internet over five years ago and you show me this?
OMG I want to grab those tities, does tha t make me a homophobe?
Nope....makes you a mammaphile.....
Funny! Two bags for you!
ORI
...just means you got the same pig gene that most men have!
Or buy Greece....or Chinese solars....
and I thought it was just your words that were a poor imitation of RoboTrader
OMG did you just hear what the ass hats just said?
Go on , humor me....how did the Clown Network spin this?
Liesman was in rare form. "Government lost jobs, that's good for the economy isn't it Rick? ISN'T IT RICK???? THIS IS WHAT YOU WANTED!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! RICK!!! AHH"
Lmao-"Austerity won the last election"-Steve Liesman
Monetary and jobs policy of Obama and the FED have been absolute failures on every level. As they intended. The don't want America to be strong and free. They have a better plan and you can see how well it is NOT working. It's an oscene failure as always with leftists' central control.
Big government, as it turns out and intelligent people knew, doesn't help anyone, it just robs everyone.
I'm awed at the capacity of human beings, like the Liesman, to be complete suckers and to believe Keynesian idiocy and huge government are fair and helpful to society. LOL.
Big government is the alternative to fairness and freedom.
So, you (contrasted with many others) see that Mr. Boeohenor(sp?) - the House of Reprehensibles guy? - was practically slavering to report this to his cronies/constituents. It makes one see that Mr. Big Biz decided to oh, just not hire until Mr. Obama is safely out of the way.
Talk about herd of sheeple. Here on zh prime examples!
Obuma to Jamie , Jamie to Ben..just fuking print print print ..damn the debt ceiling..full speed ahead.
these numbers are numbing.
There is no way to put a positive spin on a number that bad. That's awful!
But stocks will closer higher regardless. News is irrelevant. We have printed prosperity now!
Great news ..... for Chopper Beny.
...paves the ways for QE3!
How are your greek bonds doing, Liquidity Leo? lulz
Tough day to be fully invested in risk like you are Leo or did you flipflop to 100% cash again just at the right moment?
the Greek banks have already failed to buy Greek debt so.....
I'm not a pussy, fully invested and will make money today!!
USD getting knee-capped...perhaps an attempt to soften the /Es landing?
Don't worry. UBS told me that this is only a "soft patch."
Prior on Bloomberg, introducing Jan Hatzius as a "Bloomberg Best"...
Where is he now? Or, what is he now?
Liars.
It's Ronald McDonald's fault. He needs to get back from his vacation and start hiring.
Hatzius and Lavorgna should become short-order line chefs at McDs. Then the number could be 18,002!
Bad news. We can't hope in a new marshall plan to help us.
that would be GENERAL Marshall to you.
18k = QE3 Guaranteed It would be very funny,
if Markets actually turn Green later today :)))
Not only green but Linda Green(e).
Dork.
So does this mean we will erase the 90pt ramp job in the S&P over the last week? ;-) Somehow I doubt it...
Would be nice -- SPY puts worth $0.05 aren't worth selling . . .
Holy Crap! you mean they might have to implement "more stimulus"??? You mean that QE-to-infinity might return? You mean gold and silver might actually be a sensible investment? Listen to the CNBS bobbleheads all sputtering and spewing as they are Shocked! Shocked! that BFP just shit the bed. Time to BUY BUY BUY! Here comes the pre-election-year QE goose-the-E/S rally!
BTFD YFI's !!!
When does BTFD become a self-fulfilling prophesy? Maybe it already has.
I believe the data is transitory....Ben is working on a solution.
Money printing machines are waming up now....we turn green before the close!
WE.ARE.SO.FUCKED!!!!!
Looks like a social disaster.
Holy moly, holy moly, holy moly.
We are all gonna die.
The FED is making money up and down on selling and buying puts on Treasuries. Priceless!!
.
Hang them higher from lamp posts all across the nation !
Time to go long ropes 'n' nooses !
Sounds like a good day to open lower and melt up to +.5%.
Most recent NFP data = +18,000
Most recent SNAP/Food Stamp data = 44.7 million
100% FUBAR economy
Where is the leadership?
This is so easy to fix......
Since the gvt can do nothing just use the ADP nbrs.
Move this "reporting" to the glorious private sector.
JoeLALA for TresSec and we are good to go.
DImon for SecofState and 4 more glorious years.
Why has amerika lost it's problem solvers?
if we took every food stamper and put them in a soup line on the sidewalk, things would get interesting but then again, they know that.
!
CNN Headline, "US Economy adds jobs last month as hiring growth continues."
What an absurd farce.
Do Tyler and the MSM get the same news feed or is this 2-tiered already ?
I'm always flabbergasted by the discrepancy in reporting the very same facts.
There was a time when the MSM reported that +150,000 per month was needed just to absorb the new entrants into the workforce and keep the U-3 unemployment data steady. We don't seem to hear that reported much these days.
With deep budget cuts coming in the US, look for more downward pressure on employment at the local and state levels. Bad time to be a school teacher etc.
bad time to be young, middle aged, and older
Was anyone really surprised!!!!
This is going to be interesting. QE Infinity coming soon.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JNDcuVMnFbc&feature=related
QE infinitive action
works
told ya...bulltrap. market will tank on this
which ones? or simply "all of them?"
Gotta love this too:
The government revised April and May payrolls to show 44,000 fewer jobs created than previously reported. The report shattered expectations that the economy was starting to accelerate after a soft patch in the first half of the year.
Everybody keeps trying to build momentum without actually building the fucking vehicle that would get momentum.
We used to build GTO's; now we build Volts. No Momo there.
I don't understand this ~ gold goes priapic at $1542 so far while the dollar nosedives. Isn't the dollar supposed to be a "risk off" play? Dam good thing I dumped my YCS short yen vs. dollar...
The Bernanke must be doing like my avatar on this one!!
Wow. I haven't laughed that hard in a while. Nice avatar dude. :)
+1 awesome avatar
Not a chance, the last thing Bernanke cares about is jobs.
His future is paved with US treasury gold as the next secretary of your debt servitude.
Its about fraud rewarded, wars, and record bonuses captivating the printing press, nothing else.
Jobs? Jobs are for the poor slaves that can't print their own money. Bernanke is gutting US jobs for slave jobs for other countries using your money to do it. The other black export the US produces is oppressive totalitarian government enablement. They hate you for your freedom alright, it's at the expense of theirs! Coming soon to USA Inc.
[Insert Whip Here]
USA is now officially the Japan of the 21st century.
We'll close green today - bet on it.
Wow, lots of comments so early in the morning. THIS is the site. Buy the dip, right, forget earnings and PEs, just buy the destruction of the dollar. AMZN LULU< not for me. Will stick to my plan. And, another piece of the puzzle fits into place. Taking shape now. This is Not a surprise to long term Zero Hedgers. Hate when people lose their job, truly sad, but this govt. is taking the wrong track to bring us back. The sink hole is getting bigger.
Instead of just driving by their local baseball diamond and, from the quiet luxury of the interior of their BMW's, admiring the quaint engagement of the local little people in America's pastime the political and business elite should stop the car once and a while, get out, really it's quite safe, and sit down on the bleachers and just listen to what the fuck is going on in America. Maybe then they would understand that they have created two worlds where 95% of the population is stressed, broke and scared while the other 5% chatters incessantly about the economy, something that they clearly don't understand nor really participate in.
that's why we have elections. and "change we can believe in."
+10 You speak an eloquent truth sir.
Read the InfoWars.com website and you will learn what the elites have written about their insane plans for society and I guaranty you will not like it.
With the revision down in May's figures to below 30,000, the hiring spree of McDonald's in May (+60,000) has created ALL net job creation in the U.S. for May + June. Telling... and ironic.
http://www.fundmymutualfund.com/2011/07/yikes-government-reports-18000-j...
Very telling, saddly ironic. Just this morning I was reflecting on the McDonald's hires and wondering where that fell in the reporting 'scheme'. So, thanks.
Buy Gold! Buy Silver! The best trade of the last decade will continue to rock! Bad news = great news for risk assets!
CNBS bobbleheads are speechless which is so fucking hilarious I can't talk!
feel free to hire myself if you require a proper NFP forcast :))
there go the highs for 2011...now for the 20% correction
Well see there's your problem. It's non FARM payroll. I think we are up a half million farmers to anyone who is smart.
Only if you count incorporated farm takeovers. What's good for corporations is good for government - fuck the people.
Hep, people growing "California Tomatoes" in the closet are not considered farmers.
Yet.
pods
a tokin group
800 pt rise in the Dow last 2 weeks.
No wonder they dumped this bad jobs number in here,
they don't mind a 150 pt. decline. All in the plans.
Buy the Dip and more important Buy Gold and Silver
From low to high it's more than that, about 900 points.
DavidC
Where do you buy your platinum? Every online dealer I know has no 1oz coins in stock.
QE with a twist of tax rises and spending cuts?
Oh dear.
The Rockefellers are rubbing their hands.
Everything working as planned.
This is bullish, isn't it?
DavidC