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Stunner: NFP Up Just 18K, Unemployment Rate 9.2%, Household Survey Down 445,000, Birth Death +131,000
Absolute disaster. Total jobs per the establishment survey: +18K on expectations of 105K, Private Jobs + 57K on expectations of 132K. Last month total was revised from 54K to 25K. Combined April and May revision down 44K. The household survey was down by 445K from 139,779 to 139,334. Birth death adjustment + 131K. Complete humiliation for Wall Street's economists, the lowest prediction of whom came Bob Brusca at +60K. From the NFP: "Nonfarm payroll employment was essentially unchanged in June (+18,000), and the unemployment rate was little changed at 9.2 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment in most major private-sector industries changed little over the month. Government employment continued to trend down." It is time for Joe LaVorgna to retire, with his 175K forecast, or off by a factor of 972%.
Birth Death:
Some key jobs categories:
Employment in government continued to trend down over the month (-39,000). Federal employment declined by 14,000 in June. Employment in both state government and local government continued to trend down over the month and has been falling since the second half of 2008.
Manufacturing employment changed little in June. Following gains totaling 164,000 between November 2010 and April 2011, employment in this industry has been flat for the past 2 months. In June, job gains in fabricated metal products (+8,000) were partially offset by a loss in wood products (-5,000).
Construction employment was essentially unchanged in June. After having fallen sharply during the 2007-09 period, employment in construction has shown little movement on net since early 2010.
There is no sugarcoating this report. Absolutely abysmal.
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Actually, for the equity markets - yes - it is.
Let the debt ceiling get resolved in the next few weeks, then you'll see the Obama administration bazooka this job problem in August with some sort of dollar-destroying policy that ultimately does nothing more than juice equities.
Great time to be rich. The 1% win again!
- Max Fischer, Civis Mundi
Max,
I should have left the <sarcasm></msacras> tags in...! But yes, I can see your point.
DavidC
Is this the GOPs answer to Obama on CNBC right now? Shes frightenely dumb. This country is fucked whatever happens.
I have another silver delivery coming tomorrow.
WOOHOO.
Silver, bitchez !
GET BACK HERE! GET THOSE PRINTING PRESSES TURNED BACK ON NOW!
My vote is going to Michele Bachmann. No faster way to end we all want.
+ Infinity
Download yourself Phoebe Snow's "Let the good times roll" and have fun today.
Good marching music for the maddness that we are exposed to.
NFP- No Fucking Particiaption by the masses in a recovery.
Ho hum another summmmer of recovery. Well Rosie blew it, GS, too. And it was not too suprising, every Thursday number was over 400k and rising. Really, how could today be good? Dearest Leader and his kronies must be high 5 it as they take us down the river of song.
What was Rosie's number?
its a complete utter disaster, it will blow the money markets for EZ and sink Asia. The US economy is in a shocking state
.. and it's going to get worse.
Gold to set new high in fiat paper dollars during next week or perhaps even today.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/swiss-parliament-to-discuss-gold-franc-2011-07-07?reflink=MW_news_stmp
Swiss going back to Gold standard.
That should send the CHF through the roof.
EURCHF = 1.00 anyone ?
Gold/silver are not going see their recent lows ever again after NFP posted this number.
Agreed , only downside threat to both is if policy makers refuse to print and send us into the Dark Ages sooner rather than later. The Dark Ages are coming though. Get your wind-up torch.
Careful, friend.
"Stock prices have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau." - Irving Fisher, 10/17/1929
I want to work, what! no jobs available? OK I'll take the EB card... see you at Wal Mart
I'm pretty sure this weakness is transitory.
Laser Focus on Golf now.
So I think I've got the overall strategy figured out:
1. They pump the market into the stratosphere so everyone has that "feeling rich" feeling again;
2. They publically threaten the loss of that "feeling rich" feeling by yelling before congress that "your 401Ks will be destroyed if you don't raise the debt limit": http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/07/07/debt-ceiling-401k_n_892596.html...
3. Next Day: Voila Rocky! Watch me pull a rabbit out of my NFP hat. Congess thinking as DOW plunges: "Oh my God. She's right! Raise the limit! Raise the fucking limit!"
What? Oh. The squirrel. Never mind....
What? Oh. The squirrel. Never mind....
So, what's the strawman today to prop up risk? In Europe the EU-pigmen tried to stop the periphery meltdown by saying all italian and german banks passed the stress test (lol).
you can't subtract Birth/Death from the NFP number. One Number is NSA while the other is SA.
... _ _ _ ...
Hows the stimulus money working?? People got exactly what they voted for, a liberal insitgator, no experience and arrogant. Time for him to go! Oops, I almost forgot, was Bush's fault. Right?
so two wrongs don't make a right or..........
well continue with your regularscheduledprogramming.
- US=AAA not endangered, outlook may soften if blabla but US has powerful tools left to fight its dept problem and then the US economy is so resilient
- The Problem is the Euro, Greece, and of course, Iran
- The dept ceiling construct helps to prevent overspending
- Issues in Minnesota and Illinois are temporary
- Positive effects of release of strategic oil to be expected by 3rd quarter 2011
I'm lovin it
debt talks reach accord in 4...3..2.1!
END OF WORLD BRINGS "FOCUS"????
Wow! good point. forgot about the debt ceiling talks. We could be in the green by the end of the day. Owanabe eating his words that he would not increase the debt cieling.
I've got some Treasuries on offer. Anybody interested?
Hurry up, they're going fast!!!
Is anyone really surprised? My favorite quote of the day by Carl Quintanilla, " Wall Street is stunned...." Really, Really????
The Bernank skillfully removes a shorting opportunity from the day traders. The function of the market is to frustrate until miracle appears....
And as typically happens when stocks go down, bonds rally strong.
EUR jump up >100 pips, fly to safety :)))
Cause Bernank singing up for QE3.
Wow, so 2011, not so much a summer of recovery as another summer of depression. Well fingers crossed for 2012?
Looking forward to hearing more about pay roll tax cut holidays, repatriation of foreign earnings, extension of UI insurance and QE3.
In other words more of EXACTLY the same. brilliant.
Boys and girls remember this number may not be bad for stocks. As 40% of S&P profits come internationally (up from 20% 10 years ago). Regulatory, tax and employment arbitriage is WORKING for multinational corps. If politicians actually wanted to do something about unemployment the first thing they should do is start looking at this arbitrage. Alas i am not holding my breath. See the position that Jeff Immelt holds as presidents right hand man on jobs, for how this works in real time.
Btw, neither party has a plan to address this issue. Like an energy plan it is all just rhetoric to me.
Whew! Lucky things are going so well overseas!
To quote Intel. "Asia-Pacific market is booming." In the land of make believe.
and the illusion that was just yesterday the "stunning" beat by adp goes up in smoke...
Lazlo says markets go up from here.
also downward revisions in April/May.........
"The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for April was revised from +232,000 to +217,000, and the change for May was revised from +54,000 to +25,000."
Welp, here I sit in China which just keeps rolling along no matter what the crazies in the west want to claim otherwise. Enjoy your "economy" or whatever's left of it.
Yeah, that slowdown call is now what, 12 or so quarters late? What did GDP dip to, 8%?
Batten down the hatches everyone, China's GDP growth isn't as large as it used to be by a few percent after decades of massive growth. Obviously it is doomed to implode at any second. If it were the us, you'd be hearing ranting to cut taxes on the rich and cut spending to "fix it" along with selling off national companies (especially if they make money).
And this is part of why China is succeeding and the us is dying.
+1
Gold going through the roof.
Morning boner.
Where do you see that? I see gold futures up 0.70%.
Compared to the trading hours in Asia and Europe, it's a boner.
Off with their f&*king heads. Enough with the lies and let the BANKSTERS take their lumps. It is time they lose their $$$. Pennies on the dollar and give it back to the productive part of society.
And last month the NFP was off by 50%...
And 131K phantom jobs out of a 18K print...
Meh...
Like weathermen, there are no consequences for wall street masters of the universe when they screw up. Besides, they are incapable of feeling humiliation so that point is moot anyway. Sociopaths don't feel emotions like empathy, guilt, love or humiliation.
Let's see, in June, some 3million kids graduated from High Schools across the USofA, as did a new crop of deeply indebted College graduates. And, you tell me "yes, we have no jobs this month"?
The NFP is not a mere number, it is an indicator of a deep social crisis brought on by decades of outsourcing of jobs and by financially destabilizing false-flag warring.
I'm a socialist but I can abide Libertarians as a proper form of political opposition. Unfortunately, neither S's nor L's have any real clout in the current political trap. The corporatists who are clustered in the Democrican and Republicrat parties provide no political choice at all and no solution other than dogged adherence to the status quo, come what may.
Nice, thanks for the graduate numbers, really puts it in perspective.
And this story has been clearly detailed for a long time. You might find the following books a fascinating warning of what the sitaution really is that is the U.S. today:
1. The Saga of the New Underclass (Maharidge, '85) (reads like it could have been written today)
2. Someplace like America (Maharidge, 2011) (same desperate people thirty years later)
3. Deer Hunting with Jesus: Dispatches from America's Class War (J. Bageant, 2007) (There actually IS NO middle class)
4. Rainbow Pie (J. Bageant, 2011) More about the reality of America
These four books together are a frightening picture of where we came from, what we really are, and the hell we are headed for.
The data is spilling into my industry and the domestic violence between stressed out households and kids living with parents is growing. I can't imagine it's going to calm down anytime soon. Once again, it's sad to see the victims of the greater crimes taking it out on themselves
Jobs are irrelevant! We have printed prosperity now!
"Don't worry about a thing......" Stevie Wonder "Because I'll be standing on your side when you
check it out."
Put some good music on today and swing!
Makes me think of "Roseanne", the TV series, when Dan loses his job...
Am I dreaming or is it true that nobody posted:
this is only TRANSITORY
That non-posting of "this is transistory" is transistory.
CNBC's David Hobbs, (direct quote 9:15 am)
MINDBOGGELING quote
"Lets take a look at the metals, Feast your eyes on this...actually it's not as bas as you might expect ... silver is holding in there?...If you own gold you have a problem, don't you? "
They don't even pretend, anymore. It's all direct from central planning.
Off with their f&*king heads. Enough with the lies and let the BANKSTERS take their lumps. It is time they lose their $$$. Pennies on the dollar and give it back to the productive part of society.
First down day in LULU, FOSL, AAPL in a long time.
It's a freaking miracle to see these stocks red for once.
yeah ... these are jewels ... and i mean Nile's Jewel ... add NFLIX, LinkedIn, Facebook while there...never sell these ... NEVER!!! ... down we go together....
No, you wanted to touch something.
Helicopter Ben,
Time to land your bird and let the markets decide what is appropriate. With no real business experience, you are the least qualified for the job. Furthermore, the belief that you studied the Great Depression and have the solution is such a farse. The population as a whole is a hell of alot smarter than you are.
YOU THINK YOU ARE DOING GOD'S WORK, BUT YOU REALLY ARE THE DEVIL!!!!!!!!!
Obama is in deep, deep shit.
he is in fine shape to the small group he works for.
will that be enough to buy the next one?
hope not but the stupidity and greed of the many is not to be
under-estimated.
Pfft. He's in fine shape. You forget who's hand is up the sock of the SokPOTUS.
Besides, which R clown is going to beat him? Romney? BWAHAHAHAHA. The guy couldn't even beat McCain last time out, and McCain was the most pathetic campaigner since Dole.
Gotta go with Bachmann, I guess. MILF Power!
You're a sick man. Just buy pot roast and drill a hole; you'll thank yourself after it's over.
Careful, buddy. Palin hasn't entered yet. Rumor out of Wasilla is that she's using this "quiet time" to get in.
I dont understand what the Birth death adjustment is. Can someone help ?
Neither does anyone else. It's a secret 'Black Box' formula from the fine folks at the BLS. Ostensibly, it's an estimate of the number of net jobs from new businesses opening less existing businesses closing during the month. Different survey from the NFP survey, so you can't just combine the two figures to get a 'real' number.
Think retail sales for a moment. The NFP is like the 'Same Store Sales' number. The Birth/Death tries to estimate sales from new stores less job losses from discontinued operations.
Not a perfect analogy, but hope that helps.
thanks sok
I'm new to most of this and appreciate ZHer's that'll help explain this stuff.
I think i get it. Thanks!
Rosie? Please..That guy totally lost all creditbility over the past few years. You can now put him in the camp of Dick Bove when it comes to listening to pundits!
This explains the massive ramp up job from last week,bad jobs report correction is then minimised,totally rigged,mission accomplished.
So this is what it's like to be sitting smack dab in the middle of a Depression. Or is it the beginning?
This is only the beginning of the beginning of Great Depression II.
Um, Jimmah: It hasn't started yet. You'll know when it does.
Here's my take:
1. Market pump of last 6-7 days was to build cushion for the 18k
2. Also to get us to earnings season
3. If earnings are OK, then, OK
4. If not, then we see Debt Ceiling deal ASAP to carry us to.......
5. Jackson Hole..... and you know what happens there.
The whole thing is as crooked as a dog's hind leg.
This report is awful, even after they dropped the labor force participation rate (64.2 to 64.1 percent) and washed 449,000 job seekers out (not in labor force figure) -- e.g. if people can't find jobs, it's because they don't want to work according the BLS.
I was checking before this month's report, and quite honestly I did not see much analysis or opinion about what to expect before the release of the report. Tyler was stunned by this month's report, but perhaps he and others should review why they were stunned. Who are we listening to in order to set expectations, and should those sources continue to be listened to for any kind of expertise? Because the more I see these monthly reports and outrage, the more I conclude that few people, if any, have any real clue what to expect in any given month. There are a lot of analysts and websites making good money on reporting and analysis that at the minimum is flawed.
Look around your hometown and draw your own conclusions as to whether you can see tangible improvement in the economy in your local area.
This labor market has been this weak for years now, no one should be stunned by any reports of low or flat hiring. Multinationals have ditched the American labor market in the macro sense, we see evidence every month of this effect. Why they have is not all that clear to me any more when all the costs of outsourcing are figured in, but hey businessmen know what's best for their business.
Who are all these fucking idiots with these projections? Do they have a huge database with links to every goddamn employer? Fuck no. Anyone saying 'oh I say 75k' are just randomly pulling numbers out of their fucking ass and will either end up looking like a genius or a cum belching moron. I see a lot of dribbling chins this morning.
There are no solutions, except to wait for the paint to dry. We have painted ourselves in the corner in a major way.
Here's my take:
1. Market pump of last 6-7 days was to build cushion for the 18k
2. Also to get us to earnings season
3. If earnings are OK, then, OK
4. If not, then we see Debt Ceiling deal ASAP to carry us to.......
5. Jackson Hole..... and you know what happens there.
The whole thing is as crooked as a dog's hind leg.
Exactly my thoughts, I've been thinking the budget deal the may be the catalyst for the push to the final high. This shit can't continue forever but it will work until it doesn't anymore. And that's the most correct analysis you're going to get anywhere.
Kinda like George Carlins weatherman forecast "tonights forecast: dark. Continued darkness until morning when it will become partly light."
One off effect- all those lazy bums were home watching the Casey Anthony trial instead of looking for work. Some of them didn't even bother to pick up their unemployment checks.
They will find a way to "fix" unemployment, just like the CPI.
2+2=5
All kidding aside, when does this come to a head?
Now all we have to do is figure out how these folks on the high end of the curve profited from their planned forecast error in the morning trade.
From the guy who was calling for a "re-acceleration" as recently as last week ... (quote source MSNBC)
Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics, said the weak jobs report calls into question the strength of an expected economic rebound later in the year.
“I think this changes the dynamic of the debt ceiling debate,” Zandi told CNBC. “This kind of jobs number changes the dynamic of the discussion on fiscal policy. There will probably be an introduction of more [economic] stimulus.”
I hope you enjoy your naked silver shorts getting crushed for a second time this year, JP Morgan and HSBC.
This all sounds very bullish for the markets....
Overtime for the PPT.
BOOM!
Dow just dropped a hunner 3 minutes into opening. I think this morning is going to get bloody.
I hope you enjoy your naked silver shorts getting crushed for a second time this year, JP Morgan and HSBC.
Two observations:
1) Equity futures started their sharp drop 15 seconds or so before the nonfarm news was released.
2) You could play a drinking game today for every time QE3 is mentioned on CNBC and probably be sauced by mid day.
QE is the reason for the job losses. You can't hire if you have no idea what the Govt and Fed will do next... so it's sit and wait. If the Economy can run solely on Wall St bonuses but I doubt it.. even they are being laid off.
They'll try to hold off for another couple of months. They want QE3 to have it's greatest effect for September - November when the Big Bears come to play.
S&P500 down 1%, DXY down 1%, gold up 0.6%, silver up 1%
Lots to enjoy for us paper bears.
Why aren't we rallying? Isn't this good news. More money to the bottom line.
This is what big government and central planning does to an economy. It stifles and chokes the life out of it. The Marxist hacks in DC are trying to figure out what lies to tell next or how to change the way these indexes are measured so they look better. It's pathetic. There is no free lunch, and there never will be.
WORD!
Labor Sec. Solis on Bloomberg stating the administration inherited the unemployment and how they now have to 'invest' more in infrastructure and etc. What a crock.
Which Part?
http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/unemployment-charts
Very high UE at Jan 2009 (inauguration)
http://www.uli.org/~/media/Documents/ResearchAndPublications/Reports/Inf...
One of many sources citing the NEED for infrastructure dollars.
Labor Sec on bbg tv....ummm you're fired....
ADP = Automatic Democratic jobs Pump
Friend and long time Cisco employee taking early "retirement" package; BIG round of layoffs coming; he has two young kids and a wife with MS; took the safest way out for his family - USSofA - fucking love it or fuck off -
.....that is what is not reported....the jobs lost are high paying good ones...those added are minimum wage.....when is someone going to look at the true employment picture?
The jobs added / lost means nothing.....it is the wages and benefits added or lost that really counts. For example when we look at a P&L we look at the revenue, not the number of widgets....or we look at the cash flow....not the number of dingbats moved.
APPLE green again.
By definition, cults don't need reality--and IPads go well with peanut butter.
Market not even down 1%.
...surprised it is not up....I guess there are a few investors left who believe in economic fundamentals and they are selling what little they have left. All the other players know QE3 is baked in the cake.
No pain, really. This is disturbing.
What's the delay? Mark it down 15 handles and leave for the Hamptons?
Announcer: Table-setters are on. Pension raid led off and is on third, Euro-fail on second and NFP is on first after that gruesome hit-by-pitch. And coming up to bat...the Bernank
Color Guy: Looks like Ben's got a new printer. We've heard he can really get a rally going with this thing.
Announcer: The Bernank digs in. Seems to have some pine tar...make that ink...on his fingers. The set, and the pitch...
Socialism es Muerte. Unexpectedly;)
Ramped up to mitigate the drop and now backstopped by the big boys. Does anybody here really think that nobody knew the UE figures before today? Really?
Not to worry, the Republicans are working on it.
That all you got? Sad.
Dear Mr. President, Please extend the payroll tax. That helped create many jobs. I just heard your economic advisor say your plan will create hundreds of thousands of jobs, in addition to the millions that were already created by your plan.
Barry Soetoro:
Not to worry, the Republicans are working on it.
Why did they stop lying?
When did they stop? The real number today should have been -385k.
Just look at those manipulated equity markets, loool.
My business has fallen off a cliff in the past couple of months. My medical device clients are struggling. My food technology and cosmetics clients have been hit with a margin squeeze. Software is still pretty strong but the endgame there is job destruction. This is the worst business climate I have seen in over 20 years.
BusyBody.....don't expect to be a guest on CNBS any time soon.
Dow only down 81 points? What's the point in believing in the markets anymore?? This is insane!!
Dow up 850+ points on clear indications of a domestic and global slowdown over the last two weeks but don't fall as much as they should on HORRIBLE news. As far as the jobs revisions for April and May, they might as well have reported a negative number for May. I wonder what the adjustmetn for June will be in a month or two?? This is just insane. Rally on...
if you are going to play you had best understand that this jobs shit
is not of much import. You don't need more than 20-30% actually working to
zsupport the "markets". The growth is not going to come from the U.S. Yobs.
geez, how long do you have to be clubbed like a baby seal on ice........
Horrible news for who??? Only the dumbfounded sheeple.
Must be uncertainty over corporate tax rates: Oh wait - the percentage of corp taxes paid as a percentage of GDP at record lows..
Must be those evil Union's: Oh wait - union membership down to 10% of workforce..
Must be high labor costs in US: Oh wait - labor wages as a percenge of GDP at record lows...
Hey supply siders: It's called destruction of the DEMAND SIDE YOU FRICKIN MORONS
Zeus.....now compare those wages to China, India, ME, SE Asia..... get over the Left/Right blame game and see the light. They are all moving in the same direction. More centralized power.
zeus, Gov't is to serve the people NOT the people serve it!
% of Corp taxes as a % of GDP is low because of High Tax rates relative to competitive economies. Gov't is responsible for the high tax rate.
In a free country people can CHOOSE if they want to join a Union. Gov't should not force people to join. If Union memebership is low, it is because people choose not to join. Albeit illegal immigration artificially drives the wage price down. But illegal immigration exists because Gov't will not enforce the Law!
Demand cannot be legislated by Gov't (spending). In a free, capitalist Republic, people (markets) will never trust the intentions of a Gov't.
Gov't has destroyed the Demand side.
ink- first comes the sell off after the number shock....then comes the recovery because now they can price in QE3.
Sad reality for my fellow bears:
They ramped the DOW 700+ in 8 days. It goes -100 on the worst possible news. Quite frankly, if I'm a bulltard, I'll take that deal anytime, anywhere.
Rest of the day will tell us a lot.
btfd , only up , this is just base building, we are just stablizing , whatever.
many many many many yobs are not needed still, corp profits up up up,btfd.
LOL the fatman on CNBC is blaming Japan Earthquake for this number.
......every cloud has a silver mining lining.....
Absolute disaster?
Maybe for average people, but not for corporate profits!
The Summer of Recovery continues!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ugp5g-Ttd5Q
I would love to know how they will close green today...but you know it will.
Perhaps there is sugarcoat on this report: To make it look abysmal so that Congress lift the debt ceiling faster.
Obama responding to the news at 10:30am. I honestly don't know how this can be spinned in any way but dismal.
p.s. Already hearing calls on Bloomberg to increase taxes on the wealthy because the numbers are so bad.