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STUNNER: S&P REVISES US OUTLOOK TO NEGATIVE

Tyler Durden's picture




 

You read that right: S&P just revised its US outlook to negative. EURUSD surges on what can be seen as revolutionary news...

From S&P:

Overview

We have affirmed our 'AAA/A-1+' sovereign credit rating on the United States of America.

  • The economy of the U.S. is flexible and highly diversified, the country's effective monetary policies have supported output growth while containing inflationary pressures, and a consistent global preference for the U.S. dollar over all other currencies gives the country unique external liquidity.
  • Because the U.S. has, relative to its 'AAA' peers, what we consider to be very large budget deficits and rising government indebtedness and the path to addressing these is not clear to us, we have revised our outlook on the long-term rating to negative from stable.
  • We believe there is a material risk that U.S. policymakers might not reach an agreement on how to address medium- and long-term budgetary challenges by 2013; if an agreement is not reached and meaningful implementation does not begin by then, this would in our view render the U.S. fiscal profile meaningfully weaker than that of peer 'AAA' sovereigns.

Rating Action

On April 18, 2011, Standard & Poor's Ratings Services affirmed its 'AAA'  long-term and 'A-1+' short-term sovereign credit ratings on the United States of America and revised its outlook on the long-term rating to negative from stable.

Rationale

Our ratings on the U.S. rest on its high-income, highly diversified, and flexible economy, backed by a strong track record of prudent and credible monetary policy. The ratings also reflect our view of the unique advantages stemming from the dollar's preeminent place among world currencies. Although we believe these strengths currently outweigh what we consider to be the
U.S.'s meaningful economic and fiscal risks and large external debtor position, we now believe that they might not fully offset the credit risks over the next two years at the 'AAA' level.

The U.S. is among the most flexible high-income nations, with both adaptable labor markets and a long track record of openness to capital flows. In addition, its public sector uses a smaller share of national income than those of most 'AAA' rated countries--including its closest peers, the U.K., France, Germany, and Canada (all AAA/Stable/A-1+)--which implies greater
revenue flexibility.

Furthermore, the U.S. dollar is the world's most used currency, which provides the U.S. with unique external flexibility; the vast majority of U.S. trade flows and external liabilities are denominated in its own dollars. Recent depreciation of the currency has not materially affected this position, and we do not expect this to change in the medium term (see "Après Le Déluge, The U.S. Dollar Remains The Key International Currency," March 10, 2010, RatingsDirect).

Despite these exceptional strengths, we note the U.S.'s fiscal profile has deteriorated steadily during the past decade and, in our view, has worsened further as a result of the recent financial crisis and ensuing recession. Moreover, more than two years after the beginning of the recent crisis, U.S. policymakers have still not agreed on a strategy to reverse recent fiscal deterioration or address longer-term fiscal pressures.

In 2003-2008, the U.S.'s general (total) government deficit fluctuated between 2% and 5% of GDP. Already noticeably larger than that of most 'AAA' rated sovereigns, it ballooned to more than 11% in 2009 and has yet to recover.

On April 13, President Barack Obama laid out his Administration's medium-term fiscal consolidation plan, aimed at reducing the cumulative unified federal deficit by US$4 trillion in 12 years or less. A key component of the Administration's strategy is to work with Congressional leaders over the next two months to develop a commonly agreed upon program to reach this target. The President's proposals envision reducing the deficit via both spending cuts and revenue increases, and the adoption of a "debt failsafe" legislative mechanism that would trigger an across-the-board spending reduction if, by 2014, budget projections show that federal debt to GDP has not yet stabilized and is not expected to decline in the second half of the current decade.

The Obama Administration's proposed spending cuts include reducing non-security discretionary spending to levels similar to those proposed by the Fiscal Commission in December 2010, holding growth in base security (excluding war expenditure) spending below inflation, and further cost-control measures related to health care programs. Revenue would be increased via both tax reform and allowing the 2001 and 2003 income and estate tax cuts to expire in 2012 as currently scheduled--though only for high-income households. We note that the President advocated the latter proposal last year before agreeing with Republicans to extend the cuts beyond their previously scheduled 2011 expiration. The compromise agreed upon in December likely provides short-term support for the economic recovery, but we believe it also weakens the U.S.'s fiscal outlook and, in our view, reduces the likelihood that Congress will allow these tax cuts to expire in the near future. We also note that previously enacted legislative mechanisms meant to enforce budgetary discipline on future Congresses have not always succeeded.

Key members in the U.S. House of Representatives have also advocated fiscal tightening of a similar magnitude, US$4.4 trillion, during the coming 10 years, but via different methods. House Budget Committee Chairman Paul Ryan's plan seeks to balance the federal budget by 2040, in part by cutting non-defense spending. The plan also includes significantly reducing the scope
of Medicare and Medicaid, while bringing top individual and corporate tax rates lower than those under the 2001 and 2003 tax cuts.

We view President Obama's and Congressman Ryan's proposals as the starting point of a process aimed at broader engagement, which could result in substantial and lasting U.S. government fiscal consolidation. That said, we see the path to agreement as challenging because the gap between the parties remains wide. We believe there is a significant risk that Congressional negotiations could result in no agreement on a medium-term fiscal strategy until after the fall 2012 Congressional and Presidential elections. If so, the first budget proposal that could include related measures would be Budget 2014 (for the fiscal year beginning Oct. 1, 2013), and we believe a delay beyond that time is possible.

Standard & Poor's takes no position on the mix of spending and revenue measures the Congress and the Administration might conclude are appropriate. But for any plan to be credible, we believe that it would need to secure support from a cross-section of leaders in both political parties.

If U.S. policymakers do agree on a fiscal consolidation strategy, we believe the experience of other countries highlights that implementation could take time. It could also generate significant political controversy, not just within Congress or between Congress and the Administration, but throughout the country. We therefore think that, assuming an agreement between Congress and the President, there is a reasonable chance that it would still take a number of years before the government reaches a fiscal position that stabilizes its debt burden. In addition, even if such measures are eventually put in place, the initiating policymakers or subsequently elected ones could decide to at least partially reverse fiscal consolidation.

In our baseline macroeconomic scenario of near 3% annual real growth, we expect the general government deficit to decline gradually but remain slightly higher than 6% of GDP in 2013. As a result, net general government debt would reach 84% of GDP by 2013. In our macroeconomic forecast's optimistic scenario (assuming near 4% annual real growth), the fiscal deficit would fall to 4.6% of GDP by 2013, but the U.S.'s net general government debt would still rise to almost 80% of GDP by 2013. In our pessimistic scenario (a mild, one-year double-dip recession in 2012), the deficit would be 9.1%, while net debt would surpass 90% by 2013. Even in our optimistic scenario, we believe the U.S.'s fiscal profile would be less robust than those of other 'AAA' rated sovereigns by 2013. (For all of the assumptions underpinning our three forecast scenarios, see "U.S. Risks To The Forecast: Oil We Have to Fear Is…," March 15, 2011, RatingsDirect.

Additional fiscal risks we see for the U.S. include the potential for further extraordinary official assistance to large players in the U.S. financial or other sectors, along with outlays related to various federal credit programs. We estimate that it could cost the U.S. government as much as 3.5% of GDP to appropriately capitalize and relaunch Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, two financial institutions now under federal control, in addition to the 1% of GDP already invested (see "U.S. Government Cost To Resolve And Relaunch Fannie Mae And Freddie Mac Could Approach $700 Billion," Nov. 4, 2010, RatingsDirect). The potential for losses on federal direct and guaranteed loans (such as student loans) is another material fiscal risk, in our view. Most importantly, we believe the risks from the U.S. financial sector are higher than we considered them to be before 2008, as our downward revisions of our Banking Industry Country Risk Assessment (BICRA) on the U.S. to Group 3 from Group 2 in December 2009 and to Group 2 from Group 1 in December 2008 reflect (see "Banking Industry Country Risk Assessments," March 8, 2011, and "Banking Industry Country Risk Assessment: United States of America," Feb. 1, 2010, both on RatingsDirect). In line with these views, we now estimate the maximum aggregate, up-front fiscal cost to the U.S. government of resolving potential financial sector asset impairment in a stress scenario at 34% of GDP compared with our estimate of 26% in 2007.

Beyond the short- and medium-term fiscal challenges, we view the U.S.'s unfunded entitlement programs (such as Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid) to be the main source of long-term fiscal pressure. These entitlements already account for almost half of federal spending (an estimated 42% in fiscal-year 2011), and we project that percentage to continue increasing as long as these entitlement programs remain as they currently exist (see "Global Aging 2010: In The U.S., Going Gray Will Cost A Lot More Green," Oct. 25, 2010, RatingsDirect). In addition, the U.S.'s net external debt level (as we narrowly define it), approaching 300% of current account receipts in 2011, demonstrates a high reliance on foreign financing. The U.S.'s external indebtedness by this measure is one of the highest of all the sovereigns we rate.

While thus far U.S. policymakers have been unable to agree on a fiscal consolidation strategy, the U.S.'s closest 'AAA' rated peers have already begun implementing theirs. The U.K., for example, suffered a recession almost twice as severe as that in the U.S. (U.K. GDP declined 4.9% in real terms in 2009, while the U.S.'s dropped 2.6%). In addition, the U.K.'s net general government indebtedness has risen in tandem with that of the U.S. since 2007. In June 2010, the U.K. began to implement a fiscal consolidation plan that we believe credibly sets the country's general government deficit on a medium-term downward path, retreating below 5% of GDP by 2013.

We also expect that by 2013, France's austerity program, which it is already implementing, will reduce that country's deficit, which never rose to the levels of the U.S. or U.K. during the recent recession, to slightly below the U.K. deficit. Germany, which suffered a recession of similar magnitude to that in the U.K. (but has enjoyed a much stronger recovery), enacted a constitutional limit on fiscal deficits in 2009 and we believe its general government deficit was already at 3% of GDP last year and will likely decrease further. Meanwhile, Canada, the only sovereign of the peer group to suffer no major financial institution failures requiring direct government assistance during the crisis, enjoys by far the lowest net general government debt of the five peers (we estimate it at 34% of GDP this year), largely because of an unbroken string of balanced-or-better general government budgetary outturns from 1997 through 2008. Canada's general government deficit never exceeded 4% of GDP during the recent recession, and we believe it will likely return to less than 0.5% of GDP by 2013.

Outlook

The negative outlook on our rating on the U.S. sovereign signals that we believe there is at least a one-in-three likelihood that we could lower our long-term rating on the U.S. within two years. The outlook reflects our view of the increased risk that the political negotiations over when and how to address both the medium- and long-term fiscal challenges will persist until at least after national elections in 2012.

Some compromise that achieves agreement on a comprehensive budgetary consolidation program--containing deficit reduction measures in amounts near those recently proposed, and combined with meaningful steps toward implementation by 2013--is our baseline assumption and could lead us to revise the outlook back to stable. Alternatively, the lack of such an agreement or a significant further fiscal deterioration for any reason could lead us to lower the rating.

Standard & Poor's will hold a global teleconference call and Web cast today--April 18, 2011--at 11:30 a.m. New York time (4:30 p.m. London time). For dial-in and streaming audio details, please go to www.standardandpoors.com/cmlive.

 

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Mon, 04/18/2011 - 12:28 | 1180772 tellsometruth
tellsometruth's picture

Don't start using logic it will only fustrate you pleb.

-Ben

Mon, 04/18/2011 - 09:16 | 1179859 ivars
ivars's picture

Welcome Your next president:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C5cZWRx_AMs

 

Mon, 04/18/2011 - 09:17 | 1179882 NOTW777
NOTW777's picture

yes  +++++++

Mon, 04/18/2011 - 09:22 | 1179918 Bringin It
Bringin It's picture

No ------------- SP is a tool of the GMIC.  But if you like war ... She's your gal.

Mon, 04/18/2011 - 09:28 | 1179959 NOTW777
NOTW777's picture

put your koolaid down - did you notice the obama libya war? no un approval - not even congressional notice

 

Mon, 04/18/2011 - 09:41 | 1180044 Bringin It
Bringin It's picture

Only an on program retarded troll would equate revulsion at your Sarah with admiration of Obummer.

Mon, 04/18/2011 - 09:30 | 1179967 ivars
ivars's picture

Some kind of war is inevitable as global decooperation accelerates at some stage since 2008 crisis erupted. Obama was quick to move into Libya, too quick, it seems. May be its better to have a more practical head heading the USA military.

How will Geithner now explain USA debt growth to Chinese? Or Saudi?

 

Mon, 04/18/2011 - 09:48 | 1180077 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Right, next up is world war, not puppet elections.

Mon, 04/18/2011 - 09:35 | 1179991 ivars
ivars's picture

Ron Paul could be Treasury secretary, tasked with  replacing FED with something else that works differently. Or Congress leader.

Mon, 04/18/2011 - 09:53 | 1180097 i-dog
i-dog's picture

How fucking sad that it's even an option. Over a quarter century of Bush1, Slick Willy, Dubya and O'bomber and sheeple still believe that the NEXT president/sock-puppet will somehow produce a different outcome! Sheeesh ... fucking morons for even discussing it.

Mon, 04/18/2011 - 13:17 | 1180963 piceridu
piceridu's picture

+++++

Mon, 04/18/2011 - 09:16 | 1179862 digalert
digalert's picture

Stunner? Those "stunned" are the talking heads on CNBS as they try to dismiss or marginalize the call as a mistake.

Mon, 04/18/2011 - 09:15 | 1179866 johnnymustardseed
johnnymustardseed's picture

House Budget Committee Chairman Paul Ryan's plan seeks to balance the federal budget by 2040, in part by cutting non-defense spending. The plan also includes significantly reducing the scope
of Medicare and Medicaid, while bringing top individual and corporate tax rates lower than those under the 2001 and 2003 tax cuts.

CLASS WARFARE BABY!!!!

Mon, 04/18/2011 - 09:16 | 1179878 long juan silver
long juan silver's picture

We are now officially FUCKED

Mon, 04/18/2011 - 11:18 | 1180491 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

steady there long juan silver!  first, we have that great photo, here.  must be a doe;  lQQks just like pelosi.  next, who cares what S & P sez?  they're trying to suck up the the NWO & the IMF, and trying to keep their flip-flops on, too.

we're ok.  unless, of course the chinese ratings agency, dagong-show, keeps telling the truth...

Mon, 04/18/2011 - 09:19 | 1179881 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

 ***BREAKING NEWS ALERT***

 

Fitch downgrades Ancient Rome to BBB- from BBB

 

***THIS HAS BEEN A BREAKING NEWS ALERT***

Mon, 04/18/2011 - 09:46 | 1180084 clones2
clones2's picture

That's hilarious.  Nice work. +1

Mon, 04/18/2011 - 11:33 | 1180555 mick_richfield
mick_richfield's picture

That is really funny.

Rumors on the street say they've been debasing the solidus.

But Paulus Krugmanus says that's just conspiracy theories for the tinfoil-helmet crowd.

Mon, 04/18/2011 - 18:43 | 1182071 The Real Fake E...
The Real Fake Economy's picture

hahaha +100BC

Mon, 04/18/2011 - 09:19 | 1179885 Racer
Racer's picture

" the country's effective monetary policies have supported output growth while containing inflationary pressures"

*Choke.... *

someone should have put a warning in front of that sentence as being hazardous to health

Mon, 04/18/2011 - 09:20 | 1179888 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

Pot calls piece of charcoal black.

World is shocked. Such a joke.

Now, when said piece of charcoal catches fire, what then? Hmmmmm....

It's on then I suppose, the summer of dis-content. Let go...

ORI

http://aadivaahan.wordpress.com

Mon, 04/18/2011 - 20:25 | 1182303 PY-129-20
PY-129-20's picture

Congrats, ORI - one year Zerohedge. How does it feel to be a part of this site for such a long time? Any side effects? ;-)

I noticed that you didn't write much in the past few days. Hope everything is okay. Always interesting to read your input. Have you read 'Aravind Adiga - The white Tiger'?

 

Mon, 04/18/2011 - 09:18 | 1179889 tmftdoyle
tmftdoyle's picture

"Our ratings on the U.S. rest on its high-income, highly diversified, and flexible economy, backed by a strong track record of prudent and credible monetary policy."

 

Prudent and credible monetary policy? Are they kidding!

Mon, 04/18/2011 - 09:22 | 1179903 sbenard
sbenard's picture

Gold on the doorstep of $1500, after falling moderately earlier. This is a tsunami this morning!

Mon, 04/18/2011 - 09:49 | 1180085 Long-John-Silver
Long-John-Silver's picture

Never follow the tide out grabbing fish.......

Mon, 04/18/2011 - 09:26 | 1179928 smeagol
smeagol's picture

rather suspicious after the Soros bretton woods II and a call to abondon the dollar as reserve currency

Mon, 04/18/2011 - 10:03 | 1180153 Veekay23
Veekay23's picture

My sentiments exactly. 10 days since BBII.

Mon, 04/18/2011 - 09:26 | 1179936 Racer
Racer's picture

S&P whispers, uh, um, hmmm, the US looks a little naked doesn't he? Has he forgotten to put his clothes on this morning?

Mon, 04/18/2011 - 09:26 | 1179941 Lord Peter Pipsqueak
Mon, 04/18/2011 - 09:27 | 1179949 Everybodys All ...
Everybodys All American's picture

Long over due ... maybe this gets this over bloated government's attention.

Mon, 04/18/2011 - 09:27 | 1179953 QuantTrader
QuantTrader's picture

BUY THE MUTHA F'ING DIP!!

 

 

Mon, 04/18/2011 - 09:27 | 1179954 Lord Peter Pipsqueak
Lord Peter Pipsqueak's picture

We don't need no stinking ratings -we got printing presses bitchez.

Mon, 04/18/2011 - 09:30 | 1179960 writingsonthewall
writingsonthewall's picture

Whoooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooohooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo

 

It's gonna be one hell of a ride folks...hold on tight....

Mon, 04/18/2011 - 09:29 | 1179966 Racer
Racer's picture

"US Treasury's Miller says S&P negative outlook underestimates ability of US leaders to come together to deal with US fiscal challenges"

Hmm, remember they said subprime is well contained eh, Miller?

Mon, 04/18/2011 - 09:35 | 1180001 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

LOL! Miller has high confidence in the money grubbing little rat puppets in DC to deal with fiscal challenges? Well it would certainly be a FIRST!

Mon, 04/18/2011 - 09:31 | 1179976 jesusonline
jesusonline's picture

Nothing to see here, move along, says Geithner :)

'Treasury: S&P underestimates ability to cut debt'

'Treasury: Both parties agree need to cut deficit'

Mon, 04/18/2011 - 12:21 | 1180754 mt paul
mt paul's picture

long axes

Mon, 04/18/2011 - 09:31 | 1179978 gordengeko
gordengeko's picture

The die is cast and the mold is set.

Mon, 04/18/2011 - 09:33 | 1179989 thewhigs
thewhigs's picture

I can't say it was a "stunner" but I'm surprised ithe news came out when it did. Maybe over the weekend or on a Friday afternoon.

Regardless, many of have been saying "this was long overdue".

Mon, 04/18/2011 - 09:33 | 1179993 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Havent seen the deer in the headlights pic pulled out in quite a while, bravo!

Mon, 04/18/2011 - 10:08 | 1180185 aheady
aheady's picture

Ha! Was going to say that.

Mon, 04/18/2011 - 09:35 | 1179999 Dr. No
Dr. No's picture

See this for what it is: A political tool used by the TBTF.  The TBTF own the SP ratings.  How else you explain the WTF ratings from 2007 onward?  With the budget battle heating up, the TBTF wanted to place a shot across the bow of congress to get things moving.  TBTF needed interest rates to rise.  With the Bernak's nose is too deep into his text books, he hasnt been hawkish enough in his soon to be press conferences. TBTF is now using the SP tool to help accomplish it's goals of higher interest rates.  PIMCO is out.  I am sure most TBTF are out.  They need the rates higher.

Mon, 04/18/2011 - 09:39 | 1180012 dwdollar
dwdollar's picture

This is all BS.  They should have done this and more in the fall of 2008, but that would have been too painful for their masters.

Mon, 04/18/2011 - 09:37 | 1180014 bhakta
bhakta's picture

What a wild ride we are are going to experience in the months to come. I don't believe anyone has all the answers.

Mon, 04/18/2011 - 09:40 | 1180020 JonNadler
JonNadler's picture

somebody is going to have an unfortunate accident leading to an untimely death over this. Jamie is furious. Not even the morphine IV can keep him calm at this point

Mon, 04/18/2011 - 09:38 | 1180023 Note to self
Note to self's picture

Is there historical precedence for this?  Has S&P changed to "negative" before?

 

Mon, 04/18/2011 - 09:41 | 1180030 QuantTrader
QuantTrader's picture

Just bot 250 S&P e-mini contracts.

 

THIS DIP MUST BE BOUGHT.

Mon, 04/18/2011 - 09:47 | 1180089 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Watch out...what if the FED is DONE monetizing?

Mon, 04/18/2011 - 09:39 | 1180032 treemagnet
treemagnet's picture

Well....as I look out my window, it is snowing.

Mon, 04/18/2011 - 09:40 | 1180036 vas deferens
vas deferens's picture

STUNNER: S&P bond ratings are useless, keeps US debt rating AAA.  

Mon, 04/18/2011 - 09:41 | 1180038 vas deferens
vas deferens's picture

.

Mon, 04/18/2011 - 09:42 | 1180042 johnnymustardseed
johnnymustardseed's picture

Plunge team working hard

Mon, 04/18/2011 - 09:40 | 1180043 wisefool
wisefool's picture

This is being done today for a very specific reason. US hegemony was based on the concept that the USA has the best economic ideas for sustained growth. Nations wanted to not only invest in our model but also adopt it. A universal evil in the world is corruption. where there is corruption in a persons financial life, they are dis incentivize to work a fair days wage for a fair days pay. And to pay a fair amount of tax on that. No more or less than somebody who provided the same amount of goods and services into the market place. When people are economically dis-enfranchised (either as a corruptor or by the corruptors) they turn to spiritual corruption (sex, child neglect/abuse, drugs, rock and roll)

 

If you are an arab, you call american the great satan, but give him the oil to hang himself. If you are china, you call the USA horders, wasting resources on a non-meritorious way that stifles the innovation they need from us. If you are europe you want to see the US run a competant buerocracy, if for no other reason than  to support a military (world cop) so that they don't have to.

And it all comes back to one thing. Today, Some brilliant US citizen is going  to spend their time figuring out the US tax code, at the end of a gun or for the profit that can be gained (thanks G.E. you brought the tax code to life for all of us to see!)

If you elect wisefool president in 2012 I will merge the IRS and the department of energy. I will retain every single IRS employee. Instead of having them drive the lives of human beings into a machine the size of a house (the US tax code printed out) I will have them try to drive two hydrogen molecules together in an efficient way for sustainable fusion. All the tax attorneys and accountants will be employed for peer review and safety/quality control. And when we do get sustainible fusion and eliminate the tax prep burden on the rest of Americans, we WONT NEED a credit rating. We can also maybe avoid the untimely return of a certain man whose death is celebrated on Sunday.

Mon, 04/18/2011 - 11:36 | 1180591 Bananamerican
Bananamerican's picture

you had me at "buerocracy"

Mon, 04/18/2011 - 11:59 | 1180677 wisefool
wisefool's picture

sorry. The spellchecker didn't help me so I just did a Timmay!

Mon, 04/18/2011 - 09:43 | 1180050 Lord Peter Pipsqueak
Lord Peter Pipsqueak's picture

What's all the fuss about?Congress finally agree to cut budget by 73 cents after adjustments,Bernanke signals low rates for some considerable time,QE3 announced -just what is the motherf*****g problem?

Mon, 04/18/2011 - 09:43 | 1180061 giovanni_f
giovanni_f's picture

All wrong: Sarah Palin asked S&P to downgrade the US outlook in exchange to taking care her daughter's memoirs won't be published.

Mon, 04/18/2011 - 09:46 | 1180068 TooBearish
TooBearish's picture

FED becomes ONLY buyer of US treasuries , BTFD

Mon, 04/18/2011 - 09:44 | 1180070 Taint Boil
Taint Boil's picture

Deer looking into the head lights - Priceless

Mon, 04/18/2011 - 09:44 | 1180071 silvertrain
silvertrain's picture

And that $1 million dollar bet on short Silver is entering the house of pain..Another one bites the dust mother fuckers....

Mon, 04/18/2011 - 10:00 | 1180135 Bringin It
Bringin It's picture

If I remember correctly, the bet was not short silver, it was short SLV.  Not the same thing. 

Silver could continue to take off and SLV could collapse.

Read the prospectus.

Mon, 04/18/2011 - 09:46 | 1180083 sbenard
sbenard's picture

This is NO surprise to ZHers!

Mon, 04/18/2011 - 09:50 | 1180103 Milton Waddams
Milton Waddams's picture

Well that settles it then.  We need to impose some downgrades on your standards of living in order to sustain my own.

Mon, 04/18/2011 - 09:53 | 1180105 BrobamaReds
BrobamaReds's picture

10:00AM EST:  ALGOS, you may now kick in

Mon, 04/18/2011 - 09:53 | 1180107 A Lunatic
A Lunatic's picture

Time to go long on wet wipes.

Mon, 04/18/2011 - 09:53 | 1180114 QuantTrader
QuantTrader's picture

Is now a good time to buy Apple?  Can we get some real stock advice on this site ffs? Always doom and gloom which had made you money twice in the past 70 years.

Mon, 04/18/2011 - 10:26 | 1180259 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Yes you should buy as much Apple as you can, dont mind the maggots.

Mon, 04/18/2011 - 09:56 | 1180126 r101958
r101958's picture

Should have happened a couple of years ago. But now being used as a tool to enable QE3. QE is tantamount to taxation without representation.

Mon, 04/18/2011 - 09:56 | 1180128 I am Jobe
I am Jobe's picture

Buy and eat your fing IPAD Bitchezzzz. Ask Bill Dudly.

Mon, 04/18/2011 - 09:56 | 1180131 LibertyIn2010
LibertyIn2010's picture

...and over at the weather desk - Pompeii is looking at temperatures rising dramatically with mostly cloudy skies.

Mon, 04/18/2011 - 10:02 | 1180161 r101958
r101958's picture

Seems like they didn't find much....and definitely much less than hoped for. Nothing to see here.

Mon, 04/18/2011 - 09:58 | 1180142 r101958
r101958's picture

It was also used to take down commodities a bit......hey, GS's ploy pretty much failed last week.

Mon, 04/18/2011 - 09:59 | 1180143 Troy Ounce
Troy Ounce's picture

 

The S&P prostitutes did not get paid yesterday by the Gov; that's why.

Mon, 04/18/2011 - 09:59 | 1180145 bob_dabolina
bob_dabolina's picture

Hope and change

debt and spange

Mon, 04/18/2011 - 10:02 | 1180150 John McCloy
John McCloy's picture

Watching Goolsbee on CNBC right now is priceless. It is like Baghdad Bob spinning like a top. 

Breaking News from Treasury: S&P is wrong..nothing will stop us from issuing debt or paying debt (Evidently when you are buying your own debt) .

Back to Goolsbee: "I agree with Treasury.Did't the President just fix this will his outlined plan last week?" lol

This is truly priceless. Never a truthful word spoken by anyone in government.

Mon, 04/18/2011 - 10:25 | 1180260 SWRichmond
SWRichmond's picture

I caught a little bit of that.  Priceless indeed.  Maybe someone could youtube it for posterity.

Mon, 04/18/2011 - 10:03 | 1180154 digalert
digalert's picture

WhiteHouse flash:

Obama is pissed and looking to discredit (no pun) this travesty, said to be offering AirForce 1 rides.

Mon, 04/18/2011 - 10:03 | 1180155 Overpowered By Funk
Overpowered By Funk's picture

Austin Goolsby and Liesman are consoling each other and putting out their best spin worthy of Pravda.

Mon, 04/18/2011 - 10:13 | 1180200 Gimp
Gimp's picture

Ministry of Propaganda on high alert....where is that Huffington windbag when you need her

Mon, 04/18/2011 - 10:05 | 1180175 sschu
sschu's picture

IMHO this is primarily about the debt limit discussions. Political rumors are that there are not enough votes to increase the limit.

This is a warning to the politicians as Wall Street does not want to see gold go up anymore and they have plans for the free money Bennie is handing out.

It is difficult to take these guys too seriously.

sschu

Mon, 04/18/2011 - 10:07 | 1180177 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

Unfortunately, the gold stocks are being flash crashed with everything else.

Maybe we are entering Armageddon, but the poor gold stock investors could get wiped out with everything else.

Time to batten down the hatches and short everything??

Mon, 04/18/2011 - 10:17 | 1180226 Clint Liquor
Clint Liquor's picture

No, time to buy Gold Stocks.

Mon, 04/18/2011 - 10:16 | 1180230 d00daa
d00daa's picture

"The market isn't pricing in QE3.  The market is pricing in an economic boom, led by the US consumer."  -RobotTrader

Mon, 04/18/2011 - 10:19 | 1180244 lieutenantjohnchard
lieutenantjohnchard's picture

perfect!

Mon, 04/18/2011 - 10:48 | 1180363 Trillax
Trillax's picture

I was waiting for this quote to surface, +1 Interwebz for you sir.

 

Mon, 04/18/2011 - 10:18 | 1180239 lieutenantjohnchard
lieutenantjohnchard's picture

another knee slapper. just last week you were telling us you would be fully invested on the minor pullback. you listed the stocks you were buying, and then laughed at the gold perma-gloomers. now you're shorting the world, joining the perma-gloomers you mocked last friday.

this is why you are the world's worst trader. you're like a plastic bottle in the ocean getting slammed up against the sea wall by the waves. time to get a day job.

Mon, 04/18/2011 - 10:27 | 1180267 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Good, gold stocks arent worth more than the paper theyre written on, take delivery of physical.

Mon, 04/18/2011 - 11:25 | 1180523 Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

What, no chart?

 

Boring.

Mon, 04/18/2011 - 12:33 | 1180793 Boston
Boston's picture

And go long........Treasuries!

I loaded up on the morning dip (but <10 year only).  

This is a TRADE only.  As QE2 wind down approachs, Treasuries should rally.  The technicals support it too.

And today, this thesis is working.  Treasuries are UP....DESPITE the S&P announcement!

Mon, 04/18/2011 - 13:01 | 1180921 LooseLee
LooseLee's picture

Short everything tied to mindless consumerism and wasteful government spending. Buy real value of which PMs and commodities are value kings! Fools will part with real value in a broad selloff. That is why it is wise to always have some dry powder ready to deploy!

Mon, 04/18/2011 - 10:09 | 1180182 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

Broken:

Mon, 04/18/2011 - 10:29 | 1180282 clones2
clones2's picture

How can you flag this as junk...

The markets have once again rolled under their 50DMA.  It's not looking pretty.

Mon, 04/18/2011 - 11:23 | 1180518 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

my inner chartologist, still reeling from march madness, sees a dingleberry with handle...

Mon, 04/18/2011 - 11:41 | 1180604 d00daa
d00daa's picture

"The market isn't pricing in QE3, the market is pricing in an economic boom, led by the US consumer."  -RobotTrader

Mon, 04/18/2011 - 10:10 | 1180186 lieutenantjohnchard
lieutenantjohnchard's picture

remember, the federal reserve is a flailing, rogue beast. no telling what the criminals will do to save their self-acclaimed entitlement of wine, women and song.

Mon, 04/18/2011 - 11:39 | 1180603 redpill
redpill's picture

Unpredictable like a cornered, rabid dog.  God help whomever they bite next.

Mon, 04/18/2011 - 10:10 | 1180188 BrobamaReds
BrobamaReds's picture

ahhhhhhhhhh, Joe Biden and I, ahhhhhhhhhhhhhhh, think that, ahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh, america is a great country, ahhhhhhhhhhhh.

Mon, 04/18/2011 - 10:11 | 1180193 Gimp
Gimp's picture

Calling the Plunge Protection Team - Ben, Timmy, call your peeps tell them to buy, buy, buy...

Mon, 04/18/2011 - 10:59 | 1180429 Howdan
Howdan's picture

+1 Too true Gimp... I'm always now very wary about trying to short Dow / S&P / US 10yr Bonds because of being burned by the Helicopter Ben & Timmy Mallett PPT.

 

Mon, 04/18/2011 - 10:09 | 1180195 Garth
Garth's picture

The relative to its 'AAA' peers is strange.

Shouldn't bond ratings be absolute?  I'd expect a rating to say they can  pay not just they have more of an ability to pay than someone else (who is also in trouble)

 

Mon, 04/18/2011 - 10:10 | 1180196 Sutton
Sutton's picture

Tyler's weekend piece about Ben shorting Treasury  puts might have been the straw for S&P.

Mon, 04/18/2011 - 10:14 | 1180205 TexDenim
TexDenim's picture

This is a surprise?

Mon, 04/18/2011 - 10:12 | 1180209 BrobamaReds
BrobamaReds's picture

Harry Reid: Planned Parenthood is very important - how dare you treat our women this way.  Planned Parenthood needs to screen for cancer.  How are the markets doing?

Mon, 04/18/2011 - 10:16 | 1180211 bob_dabolina
bob_dabolina's picture

WOW

/si getting taken to the shed

-2.5% from it's highs in 45 minutes

Mon, 04/18/2011 - 10:17 | 1180217 IdioTsincracY
IdioTsincracY's picture

The UK and USA bet everything of a system that relied more and more on financial services and less and less on manufacturing.

However, the leeches (financial elite), after sucking dry slave nations, have now turned on their own people.

As the oligarchy gets richer and richer, the masses are told to work for less, have less services, enjoy their degrading quality of life, and to survive on rising costs and lower wages.

However, people should not worry about wealth being tranfered to the top, as soon enoough it will begin to 'trickle down'. It should start any day now....

 

kill the consumers! ... no wait, 70% of the economy is consumer based ......Right! sooo.... kill the consumers!

Mon, 04/18/2011 - 10:14 | 1180219 PeterSchump
PeterSchump's picture

Welcome to the end of the beginning of the Fed engineered fiat explosion.  Now wait for all of the internationalist to sell the unified currency program to the sheeple, proclaiming it is the only way to prevent utter and total collapse.

Mon, 04/18/2011 - 10:14 | 1180220 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

Gold and silver now getting liquidated.

Anyone have the guts to short SLV?

Mon, 04/18/2011 - 10:41 | 1180335 lieutenantjohnchard
lieutenantjohnchard's picture

slv is down less than 1%. suggesting that folks short silver is again an example why you are the world's worst trader. step up. get fully invested like you boasted and bragged you were gonna do last thursday.

Mon, 04/18/2011 - 11:25 | 1180537 Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

Damnit. Another chartless post.

 

Boring.

Mon, 04/18/2011 - 10:17 | 1180221 Gimp
Gimp's picture

As others have mentioned, probably a staged event to make sure QE3 is a go. 

Remember the bankers warning 2008 - "we are all going to die unless you give us taxpayers money"

Mon, 04/18/2011 - 10:19 | 1180236 IdioTsincracY
IdioTsincracY's picture

force QE3 and also force some sh!tty solution efore 2012 elections

Mon, 04/18/2011 - 12:53 | 1180887 reinhardt
reinhardt's picture

force qe3 .. maybe not this time

Mon, 04/18/2011 - 11:00 | 1180410 citrine
citrine's picture

"A staged event" -- was my first thought, when I read it.

Mon, 04/18/2011 - 11:00 | 1180432 rufusbird
rufusbird's picture

We can't let them die now because they have all of our money...

Mon, 04/18/2011 - 10:15 | 1180224 Stuck on Zero
Stuck on Zero's picture

The TPTB are taking down silver like a shot.  Are the markets rigged or what?  At this rate the United States ill announce a complete and utter default and gold and silver will go to zero.  WTF. BTFD.

Mon, 04/18/2011 - 10:15 | 1180225 John McCloy
John McCloy's picture

Oh this is classic now with the this guy from S&P rolling his eyes "Literally" at the CNBC crew. 

Liesman says: "Isn't it impossible for a government to define on it's own debt if it can print"

S&P Dude says: Nope..we disagree.

Mon, 04/18/2011 - 10:16 | 1180229 gordengeko
gordengeko's picture

Margin calls a coming people.

Mon, 04/18/2011 - 10:18 | 1180231 msohn
msohn's picture

CNBC attacking S&P on air (live) and gold begins to give back intraday gains. Hmm.

Mon, 04/18/2011 - 10:21 | 1180243 Dangertime
Dangertime's picture

Uh oh.....this could turn into a rout.

Mon, 04/18/2011 - 10:22 | 1180245 Central Wanker
Central Wanker's picture

Print More Money!!!

Mon, 04/18/2011 - 10:22 | 1180249 GolfHatesMe
GolfHatesMe's picture

Obviously the S&P's computers were infected by Stuxnet.  Any downgrades are not supposed to happen until demise is irreversable.....oh wait..

Mon, 04/18/2011 - 10:22 | 1180251 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

"The economy of the U.S. is flexible and highly diversified"

 

Bah hahahahaha.  Really?  what do we produce again.  Aren't "financial products" like 30% of the GDP or something?  Too fucking funny.  I guess that is why the banks keep insisting on "mark to fantasy" accounting.

Mon, 04/18/2011 - 10:24 | 1180255 IdioTsincracY
IdioTsincracY's picture

+14Trillion

Mon, 04/18/2011 - 13:48 | 1181085 blunderdog
blunderdog's picture

By "flexible" they meant it's very easy to fold paper.

By "diversified" they meant that the different pieces of paper are printed with all the colors of the rainbow.

 

Mon, 04/18/2011 - 10:26 | 1180253 carbonmutant
carbonmutant's picture

Bitchin' Kitchen!

Mon, 04/18/2011 - 10:26 | 1180256 Widowmaker
Widowmaker's picture

This just in, and only two decades late!

Way to go fraud and whores.

I guess record bonuses and liars are coming out of vogue.

Mon, 04/18/2011 - 10:27 | 1180270 IdioTsincracY
IdioTsincracY's picture

+1

fuc# the leeches

Mon, 04/18/2011 - 10:34 | 1180297 thedrickster
thedrickster's picture

This isn't HuffPo pussy, you can swear here.

Mon, 04/18/2011 - 10:58 | 1180422 IdioTsincracY
IdioTsincracY's picture

I still want you to marry me!

Mon, 04/18/2011 - 10:26 | 1180257 Clint Liquor
Clint Liquor's picture

The last thing the FED needs is for Gold/Silver to be viewed as an alternative to UST for of wealth storage. You can always count on a raid, after the initial run up, on news exposing the ponzi scheme. It happens everytime and has proven to be a great buying opportunity. This time will be no different.

Mon, 04/18/2011 - 10:27 | 1180261 Dangertime
Dangertime's picture

Even gold and silver are looking weak.  Another flight to cash?

Mon, 04/18/2011 - 10:27 | 1180263 Archimedes
Archimedes's picture

Does anyone remember when Marc Faber was on CNBC one morning saying "eventually the US would lose its AAA rating" and the three hosts (including the old blonde and Kneale) started laughing. Boy I wish I had that video right now so I could get a good laugh.

Mon, 04/18/2011 - 10:30 | 1180272 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

More political theater. "raise the debt ceiling or youwill be held personally responsible for the outcome"

Mon, 04/18/2011 - 10:29 | 1180281 sellstop
sellstop's picture

Flexible. I like that. Its like we've been doing yoga or something.

gh

Mon, 04/18/2011 - 10:55 | 1180406 carbonmutant
carbonmutant's picture

Well there has been a whole lot of stretchin' goin' on...

Mon, 04/18/2011 - 10:31 | 1180289 moofph
moofph's picture

...as we set sail on the u.s. feda-titanic-ernanke, i wandered around the decks. I happened to check under all the life boats and noticed all were stamped "made in china"...thinking, hmmnn, so sad that we will soon find out that they were also made out of old sponges...after i few calls to the manufacturer, it turns out their rationale was that if there was ever a leak, the sponges would soak up all the liquidity...and off in the distance, i could hear the shuffling of chairs...and the band was playing ragtime.

Mon, 04/18/2011 - 10:31 | 1180290 IdioTsincracY
IdioTsincracY's picture

S&P says that clean-up of financial sector is about 34% of GDP

 

thank you leeches!!

Mon, 04/18/2011 - 10:34 | 1180298 High Plains Drifter
High Plains Drifter's picture

but , but, but, leo told me...................

Mon, 04/18/2011 - 10:37 | 1180318 thedrickster
thedrickster's picture

Uh, just curious...how DOES one take risk off today?

Bueller, Bueller.

Mon, 04/18/2011 - 10:38 | 1180325 IdioTsincracY
IdioTsincracY's picture

BTFD

Mon, 04/18/2011 - 10:56 | 1180326 thedrickster
thedrickster's picture

Good luck with that one, risk be comin' off. Where it goes, nobody knows.

Fed put writing, S&P, IMF, Debt Ceiling, scumbag "representatives" re-arranging deck chairs.....anyone else feel like getting short 2008 style? At least until a QE3 band aid is applied to the severed cardioid.

Alas I forgot that TD changed my entire world view Saturday night....getting short perhaps but if that trade works, it's unit of measure will go nukelear.

Damn.

 

Mon, 04/18/2011 - 11:08 | 1180457 d00daa
d00daa's picture

So, Japan's nuclear wasteland, MENA exploding, Portugal going belly-up and mass inflation isn't enough to smack this market upside it's head, but a "surprise" negative outlook on US paper from S&P is??

Sorry, don't buy it.

Mon, 04/18/2011 - 11:33 | 1180566 thedrickster
thedrickster's picture

Risk off....feels overdue doesn't it?

Mon, 04/18/2011 - 12:57 | 1180905 Financial_Guard...
Financial_Guardian_Angel's picture

That would be a severed carotid. A severed cardioid would be a carved up mathematical equation and not nearly as funny.

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Common_carotid_artery

 

Mon, 04/18/2011 - 10:47 | 1180342 IdioTsincracY
IdioTsincracY's picture

double post ------

Mon, 04/18/2011 - 10:43 | 1180343 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

Like I said, the PM stocks fare the worst during a bear market.

All you guys how are up to your ears in PM stocks better start unloading.

Mon, 04/18/2011 - 11:11 | 1180481 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Calm down.  Gold is doing fine.  Gold has no loyalty to the US or any other fascist government.  The governments rely on gold, it is not the other way around.  Technology relies on gold.  Gold is the lender of last resort.  That is why Bernanke hates gold; he is jealous.

Mon, 04/18/2011 - 12:00 | 1180686 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

I dont have fake PM stocks, just real physical PM.

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!