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Stunning 10 Year Auction Closes, With Indirect Bidders Coming At All Time High As Directs Disappear

Tyler Durden's picture





 

Just like in yesterday's 3 Year bond auction, the surface results belie the fireworks within the internals in today's auction. First, the superficial data: the $24 billion in 10 Years came at a 3.67% high yield, the highest since April 2010 (around the time the market starting nosediving and had to be rescued from a double dip through QE2). The Bid To Cover was 3.23, compared to 3.3 previously and 3.17 LTM average, so nothing special, right? Wrong. The take down is where the true story is: after Indirect interest in yesterday's 3 Year bond plunged to a multi-year low, today nothing could be further from the truth as the Indirect Take down was an all time high 71.3%, with foreign central banks taking down $17 billion of the $24 billion total. And maybe even more curious was that for the first time in over 2 years, the Direct Bidders were virtually non-existent, taking down a tiny $118K of the $24 million or about 0.5%. Compare this to the 14.9% in the last auction, and the 12.21% in the last twelve auctions, and a big red alarm should be going off. Basically, someone said "No Directs" in today's auction: the hit rate was a ridiculous 2.2%! Something major has changed in the auction dynamics and it started with yesterday's 3 Year. We wish someone smarter than us could explain to us how there is such a huge aversion to the short end by Indirects, and such a sudden love affair to the 10 Year, coupled with the complete expiration of the Direct bid.

On the chart below note the major surge in the red bar (Indirects) and the collapse in the green one (Directs).

As for the pricing, itsouttahere:

 


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Wed, 02/09/2011 - 14:19 | Link to Comment Cleanclog
Cleanclog's picture

Signal that rates won't rise further for a while, or foreign centrals getting ready to buy wheat and corn from USA and Canada to prevent food riots in Asia?  Need those $s

Wed, 02/09/2011 - 14:20 | Link to Comment Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Indirect bidder giving new meaning to 'bag holder'.  Dollar in turn gets flushed.

Wed, 02/09/2011 - 14:22 | Link to Comment jus_lite_reading
jus_lite_reading's picture

The yield has exploded because of the explosive economic growth, you morons! Bernank said so! Wealth effect! Get it? Trickel down wealth or trickle up poverty is the same thing! So you might as well stuff the rish with the cash so they can buy more useless things they don't need.

(Ok, this does set a record and I am worried the global collapse is occurring much faster than anyone is prepared for.)

Wed, 02/09/2011 - 14:22 | Link to Comment homersimpson
homersimpson's picture

RE: "We wish someone smarter than us could explain to us how there is such a huge aversion to the short end by Indirects, and such a sudden love affair to the 10 Year, coupled with the complete expiration of the Direct bid. "

I'm not going to lie - I will admit my limitations of certain financial instruments and don't understand the signficance of this event. I wish someone smarter than me in this arena can explain what is going on.

Wed, 02/09/2011 - 14:25 | Link to Comment jus_lite_reading
jus_lite_reading's picture

The whole house of cards is crashing and burning. That is what is occurring. Game over.

 

Nobody except CB's are buying bonds because they are once again trying to postpone the great collapse. This time, I venture to say, they lose.

Wed, 02/09/2011 - 14:27 | Link to Comment Just Observing
Just Observing's picture

Well, as long as the REST of us are willing to accept that the central banks are merely shuffling paper back and forth, what difference does it make ?

 

Somebody has to eventually call BULLSHIT.  Then it gets interesting !

Wed, 02/09/2011 - 14:36 | Link to Comment jus_lite_reading
jus_lite_reading's picture

 

 

Somebody has to eventually call BULLSHIT.  Then it gets interesting !

 

No, that's when mutually assured destruction occurs

Wed, 02/09/2011 - 14:45 | Link to Comment tmosley
tmosley's picture

Sounds the same to me.

Wed, 02/09/2011 - 14:33 | Link to Comment Dr. Richard Head
Dr. Richard Head's picture

Do two auctions of bonds having central banks as the only buyers signal the collapse has begun?  Not being a smart ass, just wondering.  I thought I recalled, back in 2008 (no charts as I am an idiot) three or four auctions in a row where indirect buyers outpaced the direct similiar to the action being seen in the last two auctions? 

Either way, let's get on with the collapse already.  Bring on the golden age and don't get caught in the crossfire during the transition.

Wed, 02/09/2011 - 14:34 | Link to Comment jus_lite_reading
jus_lite_reading's picture

Correct but this is the first time by a very wide margin the CB's took up 75%. Think if it as me writing you an IOU, then you selling back to me an WOO (we owe ourselves) after  which point the face value just increased 15% due to inflation. They have reached the end of their run. I know some guys will say this was a good resulted auction but I see trouble brewing. Another 1-2 of these with high indirects and then you know...

Wed, 02/09/2011 - 14:40 | Link to Comment Dr. Richard Head
Dr. Richard Head's picture

Makes sense.  Thanks.

The primary stealers...sorry, dealers have fucking disappeared too when in comparisson to the past few years.  Wouldn't they step up to the plate with the Fed's tap fully opened or is the primary dealer drop due to their reserves (created or imagined) being utilized to levitate the equity market instead?  I would figure the primary stealers would much rather recycle the regurgitated bonds and take the hit rather than exposing the central tanks, but then again I have substituted my brain with an iCrock.

Wed, 02/09/2011 - 22:42 | Link to Comment Iam_Silverman
Iam_Silverman's picture

"Think if it as me writing you an IOU, then you selling back to me an WOO (we owe ourselves) after  which point the face value just increased 15% due to inflation."

So, based on this reasoning, they should have bought TIPS instead?

Wed, 02/09/2011 - 15:14 | Link to Comment koot
koot's picture

Simple really.  Try not to make too much of Bid/Cover, Direct, Indirect or price and rates, as the primary is the Fed.  All these auctions are mostly decided days before the date of actual reporting.

Go to the Treasury web site, add up on a month by month basis all amounts on instruments sold.  Some work is required, but if you did the work you will notice the amount of bills sold in last year which is about 70% of all debt sold which requires average roll over of about 3 month time frame.  The current POMO is attempting to move some of this debt into longer term parking, but with nearly 9 trillion in short term bills the  600 billion of QE by the Fed is barely able to keep up with the increase and if rates rise at the short end, the Fed will sink.

This means that QE2 is on a long voyage into territory it is not designed for and no matter what the Bernanke or other Fed people say, they do not have a chart or navigator.

Wed, 02/09/2011 - 16:21 | Link to Comment jus_lite_reading
jus_lite_reading's picture

Didn't you get the F'ing memo? The Fed is "unsinkable..."

Wed, 02/09/2011 - 22:45 | Link to Comment Iam_Silverman
Iam_Silverman's picture

"Didn't you get the F'ing memo? The Fed is "unsinkable...""

Yeah, but so is the Flying Dutchman.  Doesn't mean I am looking forward to a cruise on her!

Wed, 02/09/2011 - 15:40 | Link to Comment mtomato2
mtomato2's picture

Dude.  It's guys like you that make me love Zero Hedge with all my heart.

Next are the ones who patiently answer your question.

Never let this die.

Wed, 02/09/2011 - 17:46 | Link to Comment ShowMeTheTime
ShowMeTheTime's picture

Agreed!

Wed, 02/09/2011 - 15:53 | Link to Comment dark pools of soros
dark pools of soros's picture

WOPR is drawing those charts...  

-Is this real or a game?

What's the difference?

Wed, 02/09/2011 - 20:49 | Link to Comment Sheepneck
Sheepneck's picture

All I know is that green means "go" and red means "stop".  Now if only I could figure out what is stopping...

Wed, 02/09/2011 - 14:24 | Link to Comment papaswamp
papaswamp's picture

China wants to be the big holder again?

Wed, 02/09/2011 - 14:29 | Link to Comment topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

Hahaha! They dont want to be. They have to be. You see now it is checkmate. USA wins now no matter what happens, but the chinese are stupid and will have to suffer a bit more before they figure it out.

Wed, 02/09/2011 - 15:58 | Link to Comment KickIce
KickIce's picture

Yeah, while they stock up on commodities, ie real wealth, Ben and Timmy continue to stand on their heads for the fiat game.

Wed, 02/09/2011 - 16:37 | Link to Comment Problem Is
Problem Is's picture

topcalling:

  1. Jamie n' Lloyd aka Wall Street, Timmay and The Bernank are smart?
  2. China is dumb?

Can I have the other side of that bet? The US just has more tools to delay the bankster collapse than everyone else...

  1. First export it to the Euro zone with derivatives torpedoing EU bonds...
  2. Euro zone says fuck that and starts buying its own bonds...
  3. They all export The Bernank QE hot money flood into commodity speculation to....
  4. North Africa to choruses of  "Burn baby, burn. Disco inferno!"

Jamie & Lloyd, Ted & Alice... I mean Timmay & Ben smarter than China?

Wed, 02/09/2011 - 19:08 | Link to Comment bigredmachine
bigredmachine's picture

what bizarro world do you live in idiot? Dont you realize you 

are more irrelevent every passing day. p.s There are now at least a thousand 

four inch dicks ready to gang bang your stupid ass.

 

Wed, 02/09/2011 - 14:31 | Link to Comment Things that go bump
Things that go bump's picture

They really are good sports.

Wed, 02/09/2011 - 15:21 | Link to Comment pods
pods's picture

Careful now, don't piss them off or they will go Top Gun on our ass!

pods

Wed, 02/09/2011 - 14:32 | Link to Comment blind squirrel
blind squirrel's picture

Wasn't China still out for Chinese New Year 2 days ago, and didn't their markets just re-open last night?  Possibly could that have any effect?

Did they make a conscious decision to add duration after recent sharp sell-off?

I know the auction was expected to be good, and in fact it came 4.5 bps thru the screens.  Somebody really wanted those bonds.

Wed, 02/09/2011 - 18:13 | Link to Comment sun tzu
sun tzu's picture

I blame it on the snow keeping all of the buyers at home

Wed, 02/09/2011 - 22:03 | Link to Comment StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

With inflation (the real kind) getting set to surpass 3.67% (if not there already!), what kinda chump would I have to be to PAY the Govt to use my FRNs for 10 years?  (Answer:  1st Class!)

Wed, 02/09/2011 - 14:25 | Link to Comment Fourth Horseman...
Fourth Horseman of the Apocalypse's picture

Central banks did not want to buy the 3 Year auction because US short term rates are much lower than German Bunds.  However, the US 10 Year Treasury has a higher yield than that of the German Bund.  I have no idea about the Direct Bids other than they were light at both auction but you would expect this in a rising rate environment.  

 

Wed, 02/09/2011 - 14:52 | Link to Comment papaswamp
papaswamp's picture

That is wayyyyyy too rational a reason.

Wed, 02/09/2011 - 15:48 | Link to Comment NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

No doubt. It is obviously the bond vigilantes at work.

Wed, 02/09/2011 - 14:28 | Link to Comment unwashedmass
unwashedmass's picture

 

they've all decided to call a halt to Bennie Boy's devaluation of the dollar. Fuck 'im, they will bid it up and screw him on the back end.

Group hug....of everyone EXCEPT THE US.

Wed, 02/09/2011 - 14:37 | Link to Comment topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

Then we can keep piling on deficits that they have to finance. Fine with me.

Wed, 02/09/2011 - 14:43 | Link to Comment moldygoat
moldygoat's picture

He did call a dollar bottom today did he not? That with PTJ's fake rumored top call. So someone play out the scenaro for me, dollar surges, equities surge drop?.........then what? We would need a pretty big swan to convince me that shit is actually out of control and not planned?

I guess I am saying, if the crash is actually going to happen, how? Theories?

Wed, 02/09/2011 - 14:55 | Link to Comment Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

they've all decided

PDs stepped out the way of the falling piano.  Indirect was forced to cover.  It does show that the US Treasurie debt holders want the game to keep going, but the PDs appear done.  I do not think it was the indirects deciding anything.  I think the BRICs et all just got caught with their pants down and under the baby grand.

US Tresuries are not only a losing asset, but a failing one.  No one wants USTs.  No one.  Not even yo momma.

Is this long term bullish for the PDs?  No, the Majors rely on the fiat ponzi continuing and will act sadistically on the economy until the end.  But this could be its end, or at least one of the last breathes, and they have decided they will be sadists and they will be masochists.  Look for much of the latter by not only banks but politicians.  Many will be sacrificed on the alter of the money temple in the year of Boaz and Joachim, '11.

Wed, 02/09/2011 - 14:30 | Link to Comment themosmitsos
themosmitsos's picture

Tyler, cuz imHo FED can't monetize & roll 3s indefinitely, & CBs know it. FED's going to dominate 10s, as they already do 30s, and try & roll debt out as it monetizes, even while govt debt structure compresses into shorter maturities. They WANT to do Japan. They'll try. They'll fail.

Wed, 02/09/2011 - 14:35 | Link to Comment topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

I dont necessarily see a fail. And usa wins again in spite of incredible odds. Ok fun time over. Everyone back to work.

Wed, 02/09/2011 - 14:50 | Link to Comment blind squirrel
blind squirrel's picture

@top, I agree this is US positive.  Shows the Asians are still willing to buy our debt even if it is just to prevent further loss on the mountain of bonds they already own.

The Chinese govt has got its tit in a ringer with these Treasuries and sadly it's the poor hard working Chinese worker that's going to lose.

Wed, 02/09/2011 - 14:51 | Link to Comment hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture

...which would explain Ben's permanent shit-eating grin.

Or it could be we just don't understand what an efficient market looks like?

Or maybe astrology?

Wed, 02/09/2011 - 15:12 | Link to Comment Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture

not sure about Benny Boys "grin" any longer. He used to look uber-smooth, have a quiet air of authority (even arrogance!) about him and a twinkle in his eye even when being cross-examined in Senate a year or more ago. Today he's lost his positive persona to my mind and the twinkle has been replaced by almost dead worried eyes... I think he may know how close he is to the history books trashing his name if this claimed 'recovery' doesn't push through 

Wed, 02/09/2011 - 16:05 | Link to Comment banksterhater
banksterhater's picture

The Beard looks SICK today, he knows damn well he's a financial terrorist. The census showed 5 mil more Americans, many over 65, into POVERTY! WHY??

Because they're losing over $1Trillion a yr on interest! (based on historical CDs 4-5%)

Plus, he's mandating STAGFLATION!

 

I'd make a citizen's arrest in a heartbeat if I could get near the bastard.

Thu, 02/10/2011 - 08:19 | Link to Comment blindfaith
blindfaith's picture

It can't be the 30% of all mortgages (as of yesterday) are in some stage of default or foreclosure, that has this DEVIL worried.

Can't be the real unemployment rate of 22% (like Egypt, Tunisia, and the rest of the east) that has this DEVIL worried.

No I'll bet he looked that way because he was out with the Fraternity brothers celebrating the complete destruction of America. 

We look under the wrong stones for our terrorists. We are no better than a third world country when it comes to powerful corruption and less likely to ever fix it.

Wed, 02/09/2011 - 14:31 | Link to Comment Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Ouch!

That's gonna leave a mark.

Wed, 02/09/2011 - 14:36 | Link to Comment kentfinance
kentfinance's picture

so the CB's are adding to their USD positions to prop up the USD but the price indicates how they felt about doing it - IMHO the price is the real tell about attitude to the USD asset.

Wed, 02/09/2011 - 14:57 | Link to Comment blind squirrel
blind squirrel's picture

Exactly, I think they just hold their nose and buy.

Wed, 02/09/2011 - 15:02 | Link to Comment Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Even the central banks need to Buy The Fucking Dip.

In this case, the "dip" is the dollar.

Wed, 02/09/2011 - 15:01 | Link to Comment Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture

The Central Banks are doing nothing to "support the USD" it's merely businesses needing it as the reserve (global trading) currency...

...face facts the Swiss CB lost 2 Billion CHF last year trying to weaken their currency, the ECB pissed 1 Trillion Euros down the toilet in 24 hours to "support the Euro" and all they got was a 2 Cents rise for 36 hours before the Euro continued its decline. The Japanese CB refused to waste money last year trying to devalue their rising currency.

The Forex markets are massive, CB's don't stand a snowball in hells chance of manipulating currencies (as last year proved beyond all argument).  

Wed, 02/09/2011 - 14:43 | Link to Comment hambone
hambone's picture

If Fed and CB's are buying it all...is this getting done via interest free dollar swaps?  We create digital, pass to them for .25% or like, tell them to buy, and pay them 3.76% to hold the debt?  That seems a mighty steep price until you realize the Fed will just create more digital to pay the interest and eventual rollover.  CB's of the world get something for nothing and avoid the immediate melt down. 

Still, the impact of this whack a mole game has to come out somewhere.  Dollar depreciation?  More commodity / ag surges?  Anybody got any ideas how dollar is sky rocketing today and commodities falling in the face of this?  Little manipulation maybe???  Other?

Thoughts?

Wed, 02/09/2011 - 14:45 | Link to Comment newworldorder
newworldorder's picture

I am not even close to being an expert on bonds and this strikes me as - lots of commentary about the mechanism as apposed to policy. We all know that monitization will continue - untill it stops.

What difference does it make if its directs or indirects as long as the FED is providing most (if not all of the juice) for continued purchases, along the entire curve?

Wed, 02/09/2011 - 14:52 | Link to Comment hambone
hambone's picture

I suppose the difference could be that T's on foreign CB balance sheets will remain there rather than be flipped in POMO?  If this were true would slow down "hot money" and inflationary impacts of monetization when those T's are repurchased by the Fed?

Wed, 02/09/2011 - 14:43 | Link to Comment Cleanclog
Cleanclog's picture

May the CBs POMO?

Wed, 02/09/2011 - 14:43 | Link to Comment kentfinance
kentfinance's picture

all requires more digi-dollars so ags up commodities up china has problem

Wed, 02/09/2011 - 14:43 | Link to Comment carbon based unit
carbon based unit's picture

i think i'm hearing things ...  i could swear that the bernank admitted to the chinese holding something in the neighborhood of $2T in US debt, whilst the official numbers indicate they hold about 1/2 of that.  perhaps the conspiracy theories about the chinese buying via one of the UK-disguised islands [mann, perhaps?] aren't so conspiratorial after all.

Wed, 02/09/2011 - 15:03 | Link to Comment blind squirrel
blind squirrel's picture

Maybe Bernanke meant to say all of asia holds $2T but he said chinese b/c they all look alike to him.  But you're correct China has close $1T in UST, and yes they absolutely do purchase thru managers in London.  That's a pretty open secret verified thru the annual adjustments to the monthly TIC data.

Wed, 02/09/2011 - 15:41 | Link to Comment mark mchugh
mark mchugh's picture

Hey Squirrel,

Got any actual evidence of that?

Wed, 02/09/2011 - 22:51 | Link to Comment Iam_Silverman
Iam_Silverman's picture

I'm sure he does - but it's in Braille (he's blind, remember?).

Wed, 02/09/2011 - 23:41 | Link to Comment blind squirrel
blind squirrel's picture

@mark, I assume you mean evidence of the Chinese buying thru London.... yeah I have seen solid evidence but I don't have solid proof.  In particular, I remember a research piece from Barclays Capital showing in the annual adjustment to monthly TIC data, the decline in London holdings exactly match the increase in Chinese holding.  Also, the monthly TIC data and annual TIC data methodologies are different: monthly shows the buying agent and annual shows the ultimate holder, roughly speaking.  I posted a link here on ZH before where govt describes the adjustment.  Anyway, I've seen the same analysis from others besides Barclays just don't remember where off the top of my head.

Thu, 02/10/2011 - 01:34 | Link to Comment mark mchugh
mark mchugh's picture

Then you'd think the US Treasury, the Chinese government or one of the involved UK bankers might have said something, huh?  Sorry, but that less than subtle bread crumb trail's not good enough for me.  The assumption is that China is buying Treasuries on the down low, yet aren't smart enough to make sure adjustments don't give it away.

Really?

Scooby-Doo has better plots.

Thu, 02/10/2011 - 04:06 | Link to Comment SloaneSquare
SloaneSquare's picture

Where did you hear about the Chinese using the Isle of Man as a front for buying UST's?

Thu, 02/10/2011 - 10:07 | Link to Comment mark mchugh
mark mchugh's picture

Various dimwits have been trying to float that idea for more than a year.

Thu, 02/10/2011 - 04:06 | Link to Comment SloaneSquare
SloaneSquare's picture

Where did you hear about the Chinese using the Isle of Man as a front for buying UST's?

Wed, 02/09/2011 - 14:44 | Link to Comment trav7777
trav7777's picture

TLT has fallen far enough perhaps, time for some flattening.

BB has got the dollar on the tightrope...periodically, the overall inflation trends must be retraced slightly.  If the dollar gets too strong, they print harder, if it gets too weak, a little squeeze here or there.  Spreads too flat, just change their bids in the bond market, too steep, same thing.

Seems like price-fixing in the bond markets to be honest.  I'm not holding my breath for a stock collapse simply because they have proven they don't need retail money to perpetuate this charade.

Wed, 02/09/2011 - 15:03 | Link to Comment Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture

Have you seen the pitiful volumes of trades in the stock markets these past months? 

...if the Fed is pumping funny money into the Indexes they must be using friggin teaspoons to scoop it in not truckloads of the stuff!

Wed, 02/09/2011 - 22:08 | Link to Comment StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

A little bit of nitroglycerin can ruin your day if hit with a hammer!

Wed, 02/09/2011 - 14:44 | Link to Comment Hondo
Hondo's picture

I agree the corrupt FED told the street to stay away......leave it for the foreigners to re-invest interest.  The FED and government have become worst than third-world......there are no free markets (not that there have been in some time but now we know for sure).

Wed, 02/09/2011 - 14:52 | Link to Comment RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

No worries, inflation fears are overblown.  Bonds will be going up soon, they are very oversold.

USO now down 5 days in a row, 6 out of the last 8 days down.

Meanwhile, retail stocks (i.e. XRT) are up 5 consecutive days.

Party on!

Wed, 02/09/2011 - 15:13 | Link to Comment d00daa
d00daa's picture

XRT, like IWM yesterday, is up against multi-year wedge/channel resistance (weekly) and ridiculously overextended on the daily.  Look for a pull back of some sort.

Wed, 02/09/2011 - 15:59 | Link to Comment lieutenantjohnchard
lieutenantjohnchard's picture

the girl is shameless. two days ago she was touting oil and gold to the moon. but wait, first she was short gold  and oil. then long oil and gold. now she's short oil and gold.

meanwhile, i guess gentleman jim sinclair is back to being a dolt today. yesterday he was a genius in the girl's eye.

Wed, 02/09/2011 - 22:09 | Link to Comment StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

There's right logic, wrong logic, and women's logic -- capiche?

Wed, 02/09/2011 - 14:59 | Link to Comment buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

How much of that is buying from the BoE? Nothing changes.

Wed, 02/09/2011 - 15:17 | Link to Comment uno
uno's picture

and the Caribbean.  Maybe Japan now for the US dept of transportation saying yesterday Toyota is in the clear on sudden acceleration problem.

Wed, 02/09/2011 - 14:59 | Link to Comment Cult_of_Reason
Cult_of_Reason's picture

Axel Weber has refused to replace Trichet because Weber knows that there will be no ECB within a few years.

Germany will leave the EMU -- gold will spike to 1800 on the announcement. 

Wed, 02/09/2011 - 15:21 | Link to Comment uhb
uhb's picture

Yup, we will either reintroduce the DM or make a smaller Euro group with the non-mediterranean EC countries.

And that might just work ;)

Wed, 02/09/2011 - 15:02 | Link to Comment jnuismer
jnuismer's picture

FED bought thru foreign Centarl Banks thru swap agreement

 

Wed, 02/09/2011 - 15:07 | Link to Comment blind squirrel
blind squirrel's picture

LOL

Wed, 02/09/2011 - 15:19 | Link to Comment youngman
youngman's picture

My bet it was Mubarak..they probably shut off his gold stealing scheme..but he can use his central banks to buy him his future security....treasuries..LOL...

Wed, 02/09/2011 - 15:36 | Link to Comment mark mchugh
mark mchugh's picture

Yep

Wed, 02/09/2011 - 15:55 | Link to Comment Miles Kendig
Miles Kendig's picture

Yesterdays news .. replayed.

Wed, 02/09/2011 - 15:03 | Link to Comment EB
EB's picture

Might we be seeing front running of a pick-up in 10/30 yr purchases?  New FRBNY POMO sched out tomorrow.

http://english.economicpolicyjournal.com/2011/02/is-3-decade-bond-bull-market-officially.html

Wed, 02/09/2011 - 15:06 | Link to Comment oblom
oblom's picture

"... how there is such a huge aversion to the short end by Indirects, and such a sudden love affair to the 10 Year ..."

 

Not claiming to be smarter than Tyler, but common. The sigmal is clear -- recovery will be prolonged, delfationary pressures are still here, and safe yield may be a good place to be.

Wed, 02/09/2011 - 15:32 | Link to Comment web bot
web bot's picture

IMO the real danger is bifurcation in flation (pardon the pun)... with hyperinflation in PMs and commodities (think FOOD) and deflation in everything else... all being greased by collapsing USD and EUR.

Wed, 02/09/2011 - 15:09 | Link to Comment tahoebumsmith
tahoebumsmith's picture

Why do we even need the FED? At this rate Timmay could just take over the printing presses and save the taxpayers billions in interest on the bonds by just printing the cash as he needs it. Then again if it was done this way we would be considered the next Weimar Republic and all the CRONIES would not get their pound of flesh from the people.

Wed, 02/09/2011 - 15:15 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

All is well Stockholm Syndrome sweeping the ZH message boards nicely! Chairsatan will be so pleased.

Wed, 02/09/2011 - 15:16 | Link to Comment RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

Somebody bought a huge lot of TLT about 15 min. ago.

1.3 million shares on the 10-min. chart.

Wed, 02/09/2011 - 15:19 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

What...it wasnt YOU??

Wed, 02/09/2011 - 15:21 | Link to Comment papaswamp
papaswamp's picture

SPF unwind cash hitting the market?

Wed, 02/09/2011 - 16:13 | Link to Comment banksterhater
banksterhater's picture

Yep- 13:01 454, 208 shares

Wed, 02/09/2011 - 15:27 | Link to Comment mark mchugh
mark mchugh's picture

There's really only two things you need to understand about Treasury auctions:

  1. There is no real demand for US Treasuries - it's all smoke and mirrors.  Look into the TIC report and the Fed's flow of funds: Pure fiction. 
  2. The Primary Dealer "demand" are the direct results of free Fed money and POMO.  When you start talking about rate hikes and suspending QE, they shrivel.

The indirect bids are the safety net.  They pick up whatever the directs and PDs won't, so there will never be a failed auction.  I think the correct way to see this auction is that 70% hit the safety net.

Wed, 02/09/2011 - 17:47 | Link to Comment saulysw
saulysw's picture

I think you hit the mark.

Fri, 02/11/2011 - 07:39 | Link to Comment Miles Kendig
Miles Kendig's picture

The long end is gonna get sent to Bernakastan, like last year, only with a new & improved model...

Wed, 02/09/2011 - 15:59 | Link to Comment What_Me_Worry
What_Me_Worry's picture

Either the Fed banks are behind the indirect, using their offshores, after yesterday's reaction to the low indirect.

Otherwise, I was thinking China is trying to take some pressure of the Yuan.

The 30 year tomorrow should turn out to be quite an event now.  Let's see if the indirects remain for that one.  If that hits another high indirect, then they can send the long bond back into its trading range.

Wed, 02/09/2011 - 15:59 | Link to Comment ivana
ivana's picture

think we have some sort of deal btw Treasury, PDs and BOE/BOJ/ECB ... cause ben is under rising pressure...but all of them are in trouble as far as I can see so this looks like begining of THE END to me.
Guess PDs cannot support longend anymore because everybody knows they will get nothing on maturity. So they will take care of 1-3y therefore survive until great deflation shopping. CDs will somehow return principal on longend in secret agreement with powerz.

On the way to THE END, PIIGS-eurozone must allways look uglier so we can expect new rounds of intensive "marketing", downgrading, spinning ... lowering EURO and raising EU interest rates.

Think they are all buying time until china blows up in some way.

Greatest fight of all times started in bond market.

Will end with all of us in tears, interest rates in sky, USD high up and cash available only to those which obey.

than real war.

than usd collapse but new currency created ... new ponzi game ...
imho

Thu, 02/10/2011 - 08:34 | Link to Comment blindfaith
blindfaith's picture

As I read, I think to myself...this is why Obama sent Volker packing.

Wed, 02/09/2011 - 16:08 | Link to Comment oogs66
oogs66's picture

Yesterday everyone was freaking out that no cb's wanted our debt. Guess what? A few phone calls were made and today they put in orders. The street still long from yesterday and feeling the pain of the post auction sell off wasn't keen on owning a lot more - longer duration - paper. A reversal not at all surprising. Need to see this play out over time. 2 days don't tell a complete story.

Wed, 02/09/2011 - 16:46 | Link to Comment ivana
ivana's picture

definitely. these days they need all demand they can get as i read somewhere - bond market is huuuuuge and many living souls there ... robots don't work well there.

PS forgot to mention engineered crisis which may "happen suddenly" (even though they are visible and obvious: state defaults, bank defaults, accounting games, foreclosure frauds, zombie banks and hundreds of pure frauds built in fin system) and increase demand temporary

PPS ha ha ha ... now I see these days there was a new idea (in line with bond fight)
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/02/02/usa-debt-bond-idUSN02213476201...

is it possible to know a little more about guy who proposed this? 525143778 ge+reat LOLs :-D

Wed, 02/09/2011 - 16:11 | Link to Comment RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

Everyone was onto their game with the PDs.  They had to do a diversionary move to deflect attention and thereby blame.   All in a day's work, but the hammer was used where a fly swatter would have sufficed.

Wed, 02/09/2011 - 16:31 | Link to Comment cocoablini
cocoablini's picture

I'm sure this Central Bank pile on will be monetized, like Indirects, as agency debt to POMO or whatever. Its just an accounting scheme- and the US buys this crap in Barbados, malta and Antigua as some other entity.

Wed, 02/09/2011 - 16:58 | Link to Comment Hubbs
Hubbs's picture

Well, if we are all confused about this switcheroo, then ZHies won't junk me if I suggest that maybe all the  Central Banks are coordinating (or rather, taking turns) on their purchases of longer term UST to give the appearance that inflation is no longer a concern. Such a sudden change makes me suspect that the whole world is in the poop so deep that every CB realizes it has to play along.

Wed, 02/09/2011 - 17:48 | Link to Comment saulysw
saulysw's picture

"..taking down a tiny $118K of the $24 million or about 0.5%.."

 

Is it just me, or does this math seem wonky? Isn't it BILLION?

Wed, 02/09/2011 - 17:59 | Link to Comment ShowMeTheTime
ShowMeTheTime's picture

This is a stunning post, this should remain on the top header for a few weeks.

 

Can you say Canary in a coalmine?

 

When they make the "Behind the Music" on the next collapse, they will show a screen shot of this post and say..."We should have seen this starting right here..."

Wed, 02/09/2011 - 18:12 | Link to Comment Wheatman
Wheatman's picture

Tyler, the indirects are the directs and the directs are the indirects. 1984. The UK is the Federal Reserve, an the Federal Reserve is the UK. The logic loop leads to conundrum which leads to a ponzi collapse.

Thu, 02/10/2011 - 00:25 | Link to Comment andyupnorth
andyupnorth's picture

This coincides with a STUNNING head-and-shoulders in the USDCAD between 2008 to now.  Will it suddenly go down to $0.70CAD = $1USD within the next few months?

If this were to happen, I'd imagine that many currencies would gain 40% against the USD.

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