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STUPID Nations See Risk Surge To Post March 2009 Highs
The prophetic STUPID sovereign index (Spain, Turkey, UK, Portugal, Italy, Dubai) is now at 250 bps, having surged by over 50 bps in a few days. At this rate we may soon take out the 370 bps all time record high last seen when the world was ending in March 2009. Alas, with the IMF and the ECB's total failure to prevent contagion, this is more than a distinct possibility.
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Tick, tick, tick
Great acronym. Let's spread it around so that Tyler gets proper credit.
I can see the T-shirts now ... "I'm with STUPID."
+10!
9 AM East Coast USA.
Machine in process of taking Gold down again. Can't have Gold rally when the fiat currency elevated stock market is headed down.
Paper PM contracts are subject to the same bonfire as fiat currencies. Physical gold will increase in value propertionally as the paper price plummets.
Why? What is the math behind this idea?
100x paper has been written and sold compared to physical.
The paper is a scam. physical metal does not exist. the run on physical will eventually (within the next 12 months) expose yet another massive fraud.
Catherine Fitts explains it better -
http://solari.com/archive/Precious_Metals_Puzzle_Palace/
I'm not sure what you are looking for, ie an equation or something. As paper asset prices fall, physical gold will be able to buy more in value. See Gordon Gekko's pyramid. Paper precious metal contracts are subject to the same "liquidity" dynamics as every other risk asset out there. In other words, paper gold is a ponzi like everything else. There have been many posts on ZH about this.
Here's my math. Comcast won the award for the worst company in the USA beating out Cash for Gold by a sizeable margin. Cash for Gold and every gold buying place in the US are the only thing feeding the worthless trolling bullion banks. During the civil war people went into thier pantries and sold off their silverware to ease a tightening silver market. 2008 to 2009 cleaned america out of it's broken and inherited gold jewelry. The parties over. It's all paper now. Once the gold ETF's started setting up i knew party was getting worn out.
This con has run out of suckers. The cash for gold commercials will blitz TV and radio for a month than dissapear into the woodwork. The gold ETF commercials will take over and then you hit the wall. The world works on "juice". You do something mean and horrible and then live off the fear of that deed. Everybody has a moral wall they run into. They'll do more and more dirty until they reach the line and something inside them says stop go no further. Scammers have that same wall. They'll play with the line spend a few weeks or months on the other side of it and the confidence they have that they won't get caught starts eating away at them. These are hard core manipulating sons of bitches. But the thought of a billion person pissed of titan of karmic retribution just looking to kick their ass will become far to "real" of a fear for them.
"a billion person pissed off titan of karmic retribution just looking to kick their ass..."
...would make a brilliant summer blockbuster.
I wonder what you'd call a movie like that.
Maybe "Fight Club"?
or 'Redemption Day'
I'm investing in precious metals from the 60's and 70's, particularly those mined by Ducati and Porsche. Not fully invested, yet ...
BTW, STUPID - Somedays ZH is the only thing keeping my sanity index out of the postal zone.
You rang...?
Postal, please set my friend Clampit up with a double of sanity, straight up.
Thanks!
ZH idiot news traders, meet Mr. ascending wedge. He said hello yesterday, but he wasn't through.
http://i.imgur.com/sj1oa.png
Do not be surprised if GC drops to 1130-1140, pauses and reverses.
The commercial banks own so much risk, they have to be trying to offload it. Better to profit at a time when sovereigns are 'at risk' when they only have a spread with credit default swaps and not any real depiction of interest rates or face value of their bonds.
What's fun about this is china could have an economic meltdown next month, austrailia could finally crash after blowing it's ponzi back to original specs and intel would still claim it sold 8 billion in asia and 2 billion in europe.
china aint crashing, they run the show
Then pls explain how their present economic model is sustainable.
They make things, we don't. They attract capital, we drive it away.
It's really that simple.
Currently, their government is accepting US paper in exchange for those goods (ie all incoming dollars are confiscated by the government, and Yuan are issued and given to the manufacturers in proportion with the peg, sacrificing their citizen's purchasing power. Once they stop doing that, though, it will be game over for the dollar. The yuan will explode in purchasing power, and their economy will retool for domestic consumption in exactly the same way that the US economy retooled for domestic consumption after WWII. Even with a huge influx of soldiers returning from war, there was very little unemployment. As such, you can expect China to do quite well. They might have a bit of a recession, but it is unlikely to last, so long as their government doesn't try to interfere (a real risk).
The ECB is essentially powerless because it is dealing with many different parliaments. Also the IMF cannot absorb everyone's all-in stack.
It smells like March 2008 all over again, except there is no backup this time.
What's the over/under on how many days after the May 6th UK election before Great Britain pulls a Greek surprise and discloses things are much worse financially than had been previously disclosed and that someone has been cooking the books?
I guess it depends on if the incumbent party stays in the majority. But either way, I suspect bad news will be released. I say 7 days.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_general_election,_2010
If Cameron wins and there is a hung parliament, look out. Cameron will want the books exposed and spending cut. Very, very bad for the inbred BofE/Fed cartel.
The Greek protests - its all so very idyllic...
Greek stock market in complete collapse. Down 6%...CDS 855.
Spain going to market with a 5 year bond tomorrow (this will be very interesting).
ECB meeting tomorrow. Nuclear Option (buying government bonds)?
The cuts aren't so bad.. just lie back and think of baseball. The irony is that nobody is talking about how New Zealand refected its economy along very similar lines without all of the drama.
I put a VERY big short on STUPID and all I got was this lousy t-shirt............
i like the U in your acronym the most. if euro goes to parity, pound will follow.
Poor Turkey...
Some thanksgivings you just got to get up and yell at your family and say HEY!!!! This damn turkey died for this day so BE NICE or you're going to join him.
France
UK
Canada
Kenya
Estonia
Denmark
How about......
France UK Canada Kenya Estonia Denmark
Spain Turkey UK Portugal Italy Dubai
Ukraine Georgia Latvia Estonia
The ZOMBIE nations (Zimbabwe, Oman, Madagascar, Bermuda, Indonesia and Ecuador) have just appointed Kernkraft 400 to write a special national-bloc anthem.
http://www.kernkraft-400.zombie-nation.com