STUPIDity At Widest Since April 2009, As Dollar Surges On Europe Contagion Fears Flare Up
After the earlier announcement of record risk in Portugal, it was only a matter of hours before the epicenter would feel an aftershock. Indeed, Greece CDS is now back to over 400 bps, after tightening under 370 bps yesterday. Those poor protection sellers just can't catch a break. The dollar flight to safety trade is on again. Lack of robotic volume means the stock market has yet to digest what all this means. Lastly, in pursuit of an efficient sovereign risk market, STUPIDity is now back to April 2009 levels.
Dubai, never one to be left out of the sovereign default party, spikes sympathetically by 10 bps. FX traders are watching this, and puking, both literally and metaphorically.
What all this means is that STUPIDity is now back to April 2009 levels, courtesy of the proprietary STUPID sovereign risk index. And rising. We expect STUPIDity to hit record highs soon enough.
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on Wed, 02/03/2010 - 11:23
#215902
Who are the idiots selling protection on Greece and Portugal? Unless it's the government itself I'd like to know who ends up with the liability......I'd like to short them.
on Wed, 02/03/2010 - 11:28
#215912
AIG
on Wed, 02/03/2010 - 11:52
#215947
And It's Gone
on Wed, 02/03/2010 - 12:01
#215971
LOL
on Wed, 02/03/2010 - 13:06
#216096
Oh Shit! Lost our shirts again on a bad bet.
Timmy, Ben! Help!
on Wed, 02/03/2010 - 12:19
#216011
Arrogantly Incorporated Greed
On a lighter note:
and one for the "private" sector:
on Wed, 02/03/2010 - 12:26
#216024
Delta Is: Dont Ever Leave The Airport
on Wed, 02/03/2010 - 14:34
#216254
on Wed, 02/03/2010 - 16:51
#216437
+1000
ROTFLMAO!!!
on Wed, 02/03/2010 - 17:26
#216479
JOB-Just Over Broke
God-Gold/Oil/Doelarr
on Wed, 02/03/2010 - 12:00
#215966
rumor has it that it is the greek banks selling protection. if they don't default win and if they do default banks going down anyway. counterparty risk is so 2008.
on Wed, 02/03/2010 - 12:02
#215976
LMAO, how Greek of them
on Wed, 02/03/2010 - 13:30
#216144
Brilliant! Heads I win, tails you lose. They must have some AIG and/or GS consultants over there.
on Wed, 02/03/2010 - 13:30
#216145
Brilliant! Heads I win, tails you lose. They must have some AIG and/or GS consultants over there.
on Wed, 02/03/2010 - 14:07
#216209
wait, for real?!?!? fuckity fuck fuck fuck.
i mean, thats what i WOULD be saying if i wasnt short EUR and long USD. i am THRILLED to hear this actually, hope its true.
on Wed, 02/03/2010 - 20:50
#216652
from the I in STUPID
Italy seizes Bank of America, Dexia Assets in Derivatives Probe
from Bloomberg
they misled the region about the economic advantage of the package. Banks skewed the swaps to their advantage to hide fees
In Milan, prosecutors seized assets from four banks including JPMorgan Chase & Co. and UBS AG and requested they stand trial for alleged fraud. Hearings started in Milan this month...
on Wed, 02/03/2010 - 16:30
#216405
Most likely the people with inside information, who already know that bailouts are on the way. Much like warren buffet during the financial crisis, these people will have made a fortune.
on Wed, 02/03/2010 - 11:24
#215905
If one wants to see how far a flea-infested mutt can bounce, see below:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=fxe&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p96303992063
In my experience, if it were a dead cat bounce it would look different...
Do you really want to be buying the gold dips before it decouples from the mutt? I speak from a trading perspective, not LT convictions about bullion, which are bullish. Yes, me too...
on Wed, 02/03/2010 - 11:40
#215927
I hear ya brother but I can and am willing to ride the P/L swings as I am not trading in and out of gold...I know this will all end badly and there is no telling when that may occur....it could be next hour, next day, next decade. I have no faith in paper promises and again more than willing to ride the wild swings and buy on the bigger pull backs(and take delivery). Further, the physical market continues to show signs of stress and do you really want to wait for the day when it is obvious to everyone...to try and buy and take delivery of some phys?
GOLD CLOSE TO BACKWARDATION!
http://harveyorgan.blogspot.com/
COMEX Warehouse Stocks Feb 2, 2010 SILVER
10,093 ozs withdrawn from the dealer's (registered) inventory
2,762 ozs withdrawn from the customer (eligible) inventory
Total dealer inventory 47.38 Mozs
Total customer inventory 64.53 Mozs
Combined Total 111.91 Mozs
GOLD
4,400 ozs deposited in the dealers (registered) category
30,535 ozs withdrawn from the customer (eligible) category
Total dealer inventory 1.61 Mozs
Total customer inventory 8.27 Mozs
Combined Total 9.88 Mozs
There were paltry movements of silver in the COMEX warehouse. The gold movements were small except that there was an "adjustment" of 198,371 ozs of gold that moved from the dealers to the customers. This was most likely due to deliveries. This has brought the dealers down to a fairly low inventory level of just 1.6 Mozs.
There were 607 delivery notices issued in the FEB gold contract. The FEB gold contract total for the month is 2,509 notices or 250,900 ozs. Goldman Sachs issued 7 notices and stopped 0. Deutche Bank issued none and stopped 188. BNS issued 419 and stopped 206 while JPM issued none and stopped 172.
There were 121 delivery notices issued in the FEB silver contract. The total delivery notices for the month in silver stand at 242 or 1.2 Mozs.
There is 0.7 cent of contango in silver FEB/MAR contracts and 3.0 cents contango FEB/MAY contracts. The stunner is that the contango in gold fell again which for FEB/MAR is only $0.1 and $0.6 for FEB/APR. Gold is very close to going into backwardation which is signaling severe stress in the physical market. Razor thin contango is to be expected between the two front month contracts at the end of the month not the beginning. This is very significant.
on Wed, 02/03/2010 - 11:53
#215953
Sure, don't touch the physical. I was referring to what the gold bugs consider "the paper price". I am being serious...
on Wed, 02/03/2010 - 12:11
#215995
gotcha. I figured as much. I keep a close eye on my miners for sure (my only paper PM so to speak). Def, got stops of those puppies. No interest in the rigged GLD/SLV scam either.
on Wed, 02/03/2010 - 13:02
#216086
So you think that into February deliveries there will be a shortage? If that is true ouppss..
on Wed, 02/03/2010 - 11:27
#215909
This whole thing stinks of manipulation. Just when the US Government's credibility is being called into question and people are starting to come down from the Kool-Aid high and ask real questions with regard to the out-of-control US Government deficit spending and money printing by the Fed, the US Dollar is being presented to the world as the best thing since sliced bread and paper napkins.
And of course, even though the cattle are actually being fed recycled cardboard torn from the squatter shacks popping up all over America, they reflexively gulp down the crap like it's fillet Mignon, which means the cattle are actually eating their own.
Please, can someone slap some sense into us?
on Wed, 02/03/2010 - 11:33
#215922
I like mine medium rare... yes, the fiats all stink, but this is still a deflationary shock and the yen survived the same assault---yes, Japan is different, but similarities abound...
on Wed, 02/03/2010 - 11:48
#215937
Nice description!
Although contrary to the article I believe we are experiencing foreshocks.
Thanks all, you Durdens you.
on Wed, 02/03/2010 - 11:31
#215917
watch Rep Paul Ryan rip Geithner in this clip from today's hearings
http://www.c-spanarchives.org/program/ID/219067&start=3733&end=3969
on Wed, 02/03/2010 - 11:56
#215940
Merci! "You can only blame Bush for so long." Yep. Mr. Ryan should have also pointed out that Mr. Geithner was employed with a m$ney shovel over at the NY Fed when he pulled the string on the blame-game puppet.
Watch Creamer earn his yearly bonus:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LRWO68cU8TQ
on Wed, 02/03/2010 - 17:47
#216506
I had heard him say, "I am an Illuminati" over a year ago, but this comment was over the top. Does he think he can massage us over for the Illuminati? let alone GS? What a creamer!
on Wed, 02/03/2010 - 11:54
#215954
The Cspan link is a MUST WATCH! Many thanks!
on Wed, 02/03/2010 - 11:45
#215931
watch Rep Linder try and get Geithner to provide documents on the Bank Tax proposal (Geithner avoids the question on multiple occasions)
http://www.c-spanarchives.org/program/ID/219067&start=4475&end=4856
on Wed, 02/03/2010 - 11:45
#215933
Greece is the time, is the place is the motion
Greece is the way we are feeling
on Wed, 02/03/2010 - 14:18
#216216
Love that one! I think I remember some of the other hit songs from that musical:
Look at me, I'm Bernanke
Lousy with liquidity
Ink is all red 'cause I work at the Fed,
I can't; I'm Bernanke!
Turbo-Tax dropout ...
Hangin' around the ... Treasury ...
Turbo-Tax dropout ...
With your old friend Ben ... Bernan-ke ...
Your story's sad to tell, a Treasury ne'er-do-well
Most mixed up non-delinquent on the block
Your future's so unclear now,
what's left of your career now
Can't even get a trade-in on your smile
Turbo-Tax drop-out, no graduation day for you
Turbo-Tax drop-out, missed your midterms
on Wed, 02/03/2010 - 11:45
#215935
For today's moment of zen
Some australian trader caught looking at semi nudes (with his back to camera) as his coworker is interviewed live about interest rate decision
http://www.fundmymutualfund.com/2010/02/things-not-to-do-when-colleague-is.html
In the words of Homer Simpson - doh!
on Wed, 02/03/2010 - 11:54
#215955
He's a Zero Hedge fan and reading some of RobotTrader's posts.
on Wed, 02/03/2010 - 11:56
#215960
great catch, Mark !
thanks for the levity.
love the look on his face when he realizes he's fired in 5, 4, 3, 2 ...
at least it was miranda kerr and not cnbc financial porn for simpletons.
on Wed, 02/03/2010 - 12:02
#215972
He's just being cynical about the total social and economic collapse around the corner. It wasn't carelessness, it was guts.
on Wed, 02/03/2010 - 12:46
#216062
I think it would be kinda funny if someone had Zerohedge up on the screen in the background.
on Wed, 02/03/2010 - 14:24
#216238
+55
on Wed, 02/03/2010 - 14:29
#216249
hahaha
on Wed, 02/03/2010 - 13:23
#216130
apparently I was the last man on earth who did not know who miranda kerr was until today.
on Wed, 02/03/2010 - 14:42
#216270
Second-to-last... where the hell have I been? ... oh yeah, here.
on Wed, 02/03/2010 - 15:12
#216313
Word is that a few of his mates sent them to him, knowing he was behind the live shot. At the end of the email it had 'turn around' - which he then did.
on Wed, 02/03/2010 - 17:08
#216458
If true, that must rank as one of the top 10 pranks ever pulled.
on Wed, 02/03/2010 - 11:50
#215944
"Gold...like kryptonite...feel weak...must crush it...blame it on...China...or...Greece..."
-The Adventures of JPMorganMan
on Wed, 02/03/2010 - 12:01
#215970
Regardless of what is going on in Europe, the stock market has been setting up for a decline over the last several days. Stocks have been distributed on this most recent decline and small rebound. Unlike last fall, when stocks were accumulated on market breaks, they are being distributed even on down days. A rally into spring is probable. The question is from where does the next rally begin. Now? Possibly SP 1050.
on Wed, 02/03/2010 - 12:13
#216002
"USD is toast" quickly turning into "EUR is toast". Where are all the USD bears? They were yelling fire from the top of their lungs not too long ago.
on Wed, 02/03/2010 - 12:38
#216045
traders usually turn on a dime
on Wed, 02/03/2010 - 12:47
#216064
all fiat is toast.
on Wed, 02/03/2010 - 14:27
#216246
The roof...
on Wed, 02/03/2010 - 15:13
#216314
Proof that currency traders are all ADD:
Greece 13% deficit, 2% of EU GDP
California 50% budget gap, 13% of U.S. economy
Dollar up
on Wed, 02/03/2010 - 12:18
#216014
Tyler,
Really enjoy your insight on the markets! In one of your recent articles you talked about the options the U.S. has to fund their massive deficit this year. One of those was to orchestrate a market selloff so money flows out of equities into Treasuries. I've noticed something peculiar recently. As the market sells off the 10 year gov't bond yield is actually going up! It should do the opposite shouldn't it? Then I got to thinking (cause I am a hardcore analytic) what if China is orchestrating a market selloff and as people bail out of the market they are standing there with 800 billion of treasuries they want to unload? Wouldn't this be a way out for them? If there is enough panick in the equity markets they could unload a lot of treasuries without us seeing much of a change in yields cause demand would be met with supply. Just a thought, I would be very interested to see what your insight into this might be.
Regards,
Darren Zinger
dzinger@wellwest.ca
on Wed, 02/03/2010 - 12:18
#216015
Tyler,
Really enjoy your insight on the markets! In one of your recent articles you talked about the options the U.S. has to fund their massive deficit this year. One of those was to orchestrate a market selloff so money flows out of equities into Treasuries. I've noticed something peculiar recently. As the market sells off the 10 year gov't bond yield is actually going up! It should do the opposite shouldn't it? Then I got to thinking (cause I am a hardcore analytic) what if China is orchestrating a market selloff and as people bail out of the market they are standing there with 800 billion of treasuries they want to unload? Wouldn't this be a way out for them? If there is enough panick in the equity markets they could unload a lot of treasuries without us seeing much of a change in yields cause demand would be met with supply. Just a thought, I would be very interested to see what your insight into this might be.
Regards,
Darren Zinger
dzinger@wellwest.ca
on Wed, 02/03/2010 - 13:25
#216134
There is more than enough money in risk assets to move into "non-risk". Notice however that yields got crushed recently, before the equity markets moved.
Short treasuries makes no sense at these levels. Time will come later, but as EUR pukes, dollar will reign supreme before resuming its secular downtrend to zero.
on Wed, 02/03/2010 - 17:20
#216467
Don't know if Chinaman would actually be engineering this, but if it comes to fruition, they will certainly have the opportunity to trade US paper for a higher $ and then buy more energy or material properties.
on Wed, 02/03/2010 - 12:21
#216017
AND Fed's Currency Swap Lines: A BIG deal for the Dollar Bryan Rich: http://marketclues.blogspot.com/2010_01_01_archive.html#9101407448542015145
on Wed, 02/03/2010 - 12:45
#216061
Don't forget Eastern Europe. Boom!
on Wed, 02/03/2010 - 13:10
#216101
Stupid is as stupid does. Yup, pretty stupid alright.
on Wed, 02/03/2010 - 13:23
#216128
EUR in the toilet, Dollar will soar. 90 on the DXY coming up.
on Wed, 02/03/2010 - 14:26
#216242
DXY to 82, then down the drain.
Remember to hold the handle for a few seconds, as it is an old toilet. We got it in 1913 ;)
on Wed, 02/03/2010 - 13:23
#216129
and yet, equities just continue to float around. day in and day out, it astounds me just how unbelievably retarded equity investors are.
on Wed, 02/03/2010 - 14:08
#216211
It's called the Cramer/Palin effect.
on Wed, 02/03/2010 - 13:54
#216186
Perspective: the US feds have assumed 10 trillion $'s of FNMA debt obligations. The PIGS have nothing on that order.
on Wed, 02/03/2010 - 17:20
#216466
The FED can print money. The PIIGS that are currently/still in the EMU cannot.
on Wed, 02/03/2010 - 14:24
#216237
Stupidity warning: breaching holding level.
Stupid is as stupid does...has anyone said that yet?
Oh and it will be a year until these fools stop trading one lame currency for another, and move HEAVILY, and appropriately, into GOLD and SILVER and other precious metals.
YoY Gold to increase 150%
Yoy Silver to increase 165%
on Wed, 02/03/2010 - 15:08
#216306
Wasn't the Dollar collapase imminent? Where is it? The dollar bears have become so quiet it makes me nervous.
on Wed, 02/03/2010 - 17:22
#216470
It's always been a race between USD and EUR. On any given day one is a nose ahead. Ya gotta wonder how long they can keep that up.
on Wed, 02/03/2010 - 15:56
#216355
Unfortunately, it looks like precious metal prices must come down with deflation until the dollar currency crisis manifests itself and it is revealed to the world that gold is money and fiat is worthless.
on Wed, 02/03/2010 - 17:37
#216494
Thx to everyone who posted vids!
on Thu, 02/04/2010 - 05:46
#216905
USD rally continues, as forecast several months ago.
USD weekly chart is now bullish.
Vice versa for EURO.
http://www.zerohedge.com/forum/market-outlook-0