Stuyvesant Town Reserves Depleted, Default Likely To Come In December

Tyler Durden's picture

Tishman Speyer's 2006 acquisition of Stuyvesant Town for $5.4 billion apparently is about to turn terminally sour. The "biggest deal for a single American property in modern times" which never managed to be profitable from day one, is on the verge of completely exhausting reserve accounts tied to $3 billion of securitized accounts.The premise - take the 11,227 rent-stabilized u,nits apartment complex and convert them to market-rate. Alas, the timing could not have been worse due to an implosion in the NY rent market, coupled with legal difficulties - to date only 4,350 of the units have been converted to market rate, while the remaining rent-controlled units will likely increase in number due to a recent court ruling.

According to RealPoint the original reserve fund which had a balance of $650 million in 2007 when Stuy Town's debt was first securitized is down to a meager $49.7 million. The origianal reserve fund set consisted of a $190 million general reserve as well as a $60 million replacement reserve, both of which have been depleted, as well as a $400 debt-shortfall service fund, which has now declined to just over 10% of its initial balance.

The reserve fund was drawn down by $7 million month to date, versus $13.3 million in July and $19.6 million in June, with an average decline in the reserve fund of $11.3 million per month. At this rate Stuy Town's reserves will be completely wiped out in four months, sometime in December.

To demonstrate what a colossal failure Tishman and Blackrock's assumptions have been from the very beginning, the property has a $23.8 million monthly debt service, while on the revenue side, according to first quarter data, the property generates $136.5 million in annual cash flow, or $11.4 million monthly, a $12.4 million monthly shortfall (a cap rate of about + infinity).

And to demonstrate just how bad (and getting progressively worse) real estate in New York is, midtown's Dream Hotel, owners Hampshire Group have notified special servicer LNR Group, that it wold not make any more payments on the $100 million loan against the property. According to CREDirect, in 2008 the property's cash flow dropped 11 percent to $7.8 million as occupancy fell 3% to 84%, with a DSCR drop from 1.41x in 2007 to 1.26x. Things have since deteriorated, not just for the now defaulted Dream, but for a vast majority of all other New York hotels who have been struggling with declining bookings and room rates.

As usual, there will be a way to spin this and make it seem like this is favorable news for REITs, whose stock prices are now completely disconnected from the reality of collapsing cash flows, declining DSCRs and reserve rates, and reduced rental rates.

h/t the Bankster

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JohnKing's picture

Quick, call CALPERS, sell more REIT's to the fiduciary boys!


green shoot!

Veteran's picture

Man, what a shithole.  Who in their right mind wants to live in the projects anyway? New York sucks

SteveNYC's picture

Haha! I walked past Stuy Town today, couldn't help but think of this unfolding drama on the way past.

These guys had every intention of screwing the rent-control tenants (ok, who get an unfair deal in NYC, always have, BUT, try being a big RE developer in the city and upping the rent of a 90 year old woman, BAD, BAD PR!) to meet their investment returns.

I would imagine with the cash shortfall they simply thought they could get a perpetual negative amortization deal on their mortage to finance this thing until they beat all the tenants' heads in.

Reap what we sow!

Ruth's picture

why don't we just keep monetizing the whole system, keep smoking green shoots, it's just the tip of the iceberg, they'll need to pump up the volume a bit i'd say to keep up with this one, commercial's not like residential, this is gonna be ONE BIG MESS

Anonymous's picture

IYR has been one of the top performing sectors vs. SPY over the past month. Currently, it is the number one performing sector relative to the S&P over the last two weeks. Totally mind-boggling.

Sqworl's picture

New name Bailout City...

Anonymous's picture

The Financial Capital of Bailout Nation...Late night informercial voice..."Don't live in the U.S.? Hell, don't let that get in your way! Just bum rush the border and there are free handouts waiting for you for damn near everything! We can't help you with details of how to do that(wink, wink), but once your here we'll set you up big time with weekly paychecks as long as you say you're looking, 4k for a car, 8k for a house, and now free healthcare! Don't matter if you smoke and drink everyday or eat fifteen meals a week in McD's and Dunkin Donuts...everyone else will make sure to give you money to care about your health even when you don't!"

msorense's picture

A little off topic but this interview with economist Michael Hudson is a must listen - TD you might want to post this one.

Veteran's picture

interesting.  thanks for the link

Enkidu's picture

Interesting - and depressing...

Thoreau's picture

Great interview. Thanks.

Sqworl's picture

SOS..Banana Republic...thanks for link

D.O.D.'s picture

Wow, the end is certainly near... thanks for the link!

Anonymous's picture

This guy knows his stuff! I heard him a week earlier about Iceland. Another story worth following. Banks want the citizens of Iceland to pay for the private central banks losses. Remember what Andrew Jackson said??

Carolyn's picture

Wow, Mr. Hudson makes it so clear.  Thanks to him, I can now clearly see the bottom of my financial future as it comes up to smack me in my face!  (BTW, as it so happens, my cousin lives in Iceland.  Maybe I should fluff up the sleeping bag and spare pillow for her to use when she lands on my doorstep in a few months with all her earthly possessions stowed neatly in her handbag.)

Anonymous's picture

an absolutely superb interview - michael hudson
is an american hero....this is must listen.

BrianOFlanagan's picture

What they should do is take it public.  The market will love it.  Bankruptcy is a good thing ya know, just force the debholders to extend to infinity. Equity gets a super long-term option and debt holders get paid sometime in the next century.  Everybody wins!


Anonymous's picture

Press release from Fitch with some additional details:

Howard_Beale's picture

Dear TD--I really miss your "Weekend Reading" section. And no I'm not too lazy to scour it out myself but it was a real treat to have the TD Sunday Times.

Anonymous's picture

Michael Moore presents on Oct 2, 09:

I am going to first show..

dnarby's picture

Oh, grrrreaaaat...  Just what we need, a hyper-partisan propagandist to weigh in.

With any luck he'll have a coronary before he can get anything shot.

Anonymous's picture

In the world I see - you are stalking elk through the damp canyon forests around the ruins of Rockefeller Center. You'll wear leather clothes that will last you the rest of your life. You'll climb the wrist-thick kudzu vines that wrap the Sears Tower. And when you look down, you'll see tiny figures pounding corn, laying strips of venison on the empty car pool lane of some abandoned superhighway.

Anonymous's picture

If only the Rockefeller family would implode like a
black hole, sucking themselves into an eternity
in the lake of fire where they belong.

Rollerball's picture

Leather is too noisy to hunt in.  And I wouldn't waste a bullet on an elk.  You'll just hear the thump after my knife penetrates the throat.

PenGun's picture

 You have never seen an Elk. They live around here. I saw a female the other day. Maybe 600 lbs. A male is 1000 lbs and very nasty. The most dangerous thing here and we have Cougars and Black Bear eveywhere.


 I'll watch with interest if you'll take one on with a knife.

Miles Kendig's picture

Watch out
You might get what youre after
Cool babies
Strange but not a stranger
Im an ordinary guy
Burning down the house

Hold tight wait till the partys over
Hold tight were in for nasty weather
There has got to be a way
Burning down the house

Heres your ticket pack your bag: time for jumpin overboard
The transportation is here
Close enough but not too far, maybe you know where you are
Fightin fire with fire

All wet
Hey you might need a raincoat
Dreams walking in broad daylight
Three hun-dred six-ty five de-grees
Burning down the house

It was once upon a place sometimes I listen to myself
Gonna come in first place
People on their way to work baby what did you except
Gonna burst into flame

My house
Sout of the ordinary
Thats might
Dont want to hurt nobody
Some things sure can sweep me off my feet
Burning down the house

No visible means of support and you have not seen nuthin yet
Everythings stuck together
I dont know what you expect starring into the tv set
Fighting fire with fire

Sqworl's picture

Conversion budget was burned by contractor and subcontractor...Kaching..The replacement value for vanity made the military look cheap!

Anonymous's picture

Rise and Fall. Brings to mind the rise and fall of two steel and concrete towers in Manhattan. Purported to have been brought down by a deep conspiracy of Islamic religious fanatics angry at Satan USA. If Osama Bin Laden were sick to violence because he saw an empty, rapacious, inequitable economic system which chose winners and losers while lying to participants that it was all merit based and Free. Targeting other nations with their eco-political cabal.
If that system did manipulate the psychology of the people, the industrial policy of the nation, the bond/equity/derivative/forex markets of the world; if they lay as predators using inside gaming and automated trading to fleece the innocents of the world; if they coopted the political power to further extort the fat of the land--hoovering them up into their pockets, then they really were what they were perceived to be. Iniquitious, conspiratorial global terrorists without compare.

The twin towers came down very neatly, all that elaborate structure somehow being reduced to simple small almost portable pieces. The winners? Other real estate interests in NY which had the glut overnight transformed into a net scarcity. The military which used specious links to terror to launch wars throughout the middle and far east. The tower owner who needed impossibly expensive asbestos remediation and necessary retrofitting to overcome the extensive design flaws. The owner was handsomely repaid with double insurance payouts. AIG anyone? See the comparison?

Bringing down this tower of Babel which is the Debt peonage, superamplified business cycle, end-of-days rapacious looting has its designated winners too.
In a system where the unit of accounting has no stability, and is used as a tool to distort economic truths as revealed in other markets, in a system where taxpayer liquidity is used to trade against their interests, in a system where their retirements, health, savings, land and structures, livelihoods, and future earnings capacity have been destroyed by pull-forward false demand, this is an EVIL EMPIRE. Where falsehood is established as state policy by balance sheet manoevres, by no-standard accounting standards, by official bureaucratic lie-making, by slippery handed debt and equity manipulation, this is state terrorism against its governed masses.

In the fall of the dollar, in the fall of a false empire, in a fall of any structure of man, the tragedy is made worse by the open corruption and defiant evil of the powerful.

This is the face of the Great Satan. This is the age-old evil which diminishes the happiness and hope for the future. Those who have historically opposed it have been the heroes and patriots. The greatest lie of today is that our institutions founded on virtue and integrity are not the paragons of evildoing and exploitation. The USA, its bankers and politicians, are servants of all the dark arts and its prince reigns through them.

Throw out the money changers and high priests who crucify those who seek to restore the virtuous cycle in trade for their continued gain and position.

Sooner or later, it must crumble down.

Anonymous's picture

it will crumble when yahushua destroys it.....

in the mean time the great irony of our time is
that the usa is indeed the great satan....

i can remember laughing at that sobriquet first
heard during the first gult war but
when i learned that the very same oligarchy
which murdered jfk, rfk, mlk, rwr (failed), rmn also
destroyed the wtc with skandia labs created
nano-thermite all of the pieces fell into place...

the bush crime syndicate is alive and well...the
great deals had in the destruction of the wtc fell
on neil bush who oh so coincidentally was on the
board of the insurer who just happened to cancel
the insurance contract on wtc days before the

the rockefellers, bushes, soros', bundys, and
many more grey eminences pull the strings of
power, deceit, and will end
very badly for them but we will all suffer on
our way to redemption....

windhorse2000's picture

Msorense:.... thanks for the post,....."Dress Rehearsal For Debt Peonage" with economist Dr. Michael Hudson, brilliant!.....must hear interview!

madmax's picture

There is a green shot in this somewhere, damnit...I just know there is! 

dnarby's picture

They're growing in various closets and storerooms in the projects.

TeresaE's picture

Nah, they are growing under stolen electricity in empty homes and businesses all over the country.







Anonymous's picture

Big ups to Bed-Sty! Holla!

Anonymous's picture

Will filing for bankruptcy make all lease contracts null and void and allow Stuy-Town to charge market rents to rent controlled tenants and essentially get rid of them?

Careless Whisper's picture

Let's give Mister Jerry Speyer a golf clap for his public service as Chairman of the Board of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Oh, and all his work for advancing education for the underprivileged while on the Board of The Dalton School.


Anonymous's picture

A State Assemblyman gave a stress test to properties in his central Brooklyn district, and apparently the whole region is filled with dominoes dangerously swaying in the winds of Hurricane Lehman. In all, Crain's reports, the survey determined that 65 market-rate residential buildings in the neighborhoods of Fort Greene, Clinton Hill, Prospect Heights, Crown Heights and Bed-Stuy are financially troubled or on the verge of distress. The list includes stalled projects as well as new buildings that are completed and unoccupied, such as Clinton Hill's The Collection at 525 Clinton Avenue (oh, what sweet memories) and the Isabella at 545 Washington Avenue, which some eggheads believe represents everything that's wrong with America.

Developers of both buildings are in the early stages of foreclosure, and State Assemblyman Hakeem Jeffries wants to turn the unsold units into affordable housing, similar to the City Council's HARP plan. Surprisingly, Fort Greene's Forté—which should soon wind up in the hands of its lender—didn't make Jeffries' list. The Isabella still has some active listings for those looking to live dangerously.
· 65 central Brooklyn condos in or near financial distress [Crain's]
· A Trip Inside Clinton Hill's 'The Collection 525' [Curbed]

Careless Whisper's picture

I agree Anon, it was Hurricane Lehman. Let's not forget the $22 Billion deal Jerry Speyer did with Lehman for Archstone-Smith. "Pride goeth before destruction, and a haughty spirit before a fall."  Proverbs 16:18


TeresaE's picture

Never fear, Barney Frank is currently writing a bill that will take the "repaid" TARP funds and gift to the low income housing units.

Cash for Projects.

I'm sure this will be a winner too!

RobotTrader's picture

Just mow the whole place down.

It is place, build a new stadium, a new greyhound racetrack, a a new casino for the gamblers...


deadhead's picture

and the Charlie Rangel Memorial Hall of Fame

Anonymous's picture

memorial hall of shame.

Anonymous's picture

One more nail in Obama's "green shoots" scenario

flaxpin's picture

They could decrease vacancies by decreasing rent instead of simply offering the no broker fee / free one month rent offer.  14th and 1st isn't prime enough to support the $3000 rents they're asking for.

Anonymous's picture

The shit is flying through the air towards the fan. REITS are just another of several turds which will (and must) obliterate this bear market bounce and send us down to new lows.

Tuesday is September 1st, which marks the official start-date for Crash Season.

Anyone staying long between September and January has balls of titanium.

History is approaching...

Anonymous's picture

Long ago, before the turn of the millennium, I had a buddy who worked in wtc (building 7 I think) on a trading floor. Came to visit him, and as I walked through the pit, with its glass walls and gothic-cathedral-high ceilings, this is the song that drummed into my head:

Kept remembering that visit, and that song I could not stop assocating with it, after Sept. 11, 2001, and then after Sept. 15, 2008.

Rollerball's picture

Sheeple blood for the passover/under.