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Stuyvesant Town Reserves Depleted, Default Likely To Come In December

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Tishman Speyer's 2006 acquisition of Stuyvesant Town for $5.4 billion apparently is about to turn terminally sour. The "biggest deal for a single American property in modern times" which never managed to be profitable from day one, is on the verge of completely exhausting reserve accounts tied to $3 billion of securitized accounts.The premise - take the 11,227 rent-stabilized u,nits apartment complex and convert them to market-rate. Alas, the timing could not have been worse due to an implosion in the NY rent market, coupled with legal difficulties - to date only 4,350 of the units have been converted to market rate, while the remaining rent-controlled units will likely increase in number due to a recent court ruling.

According to RealPoint the original reserve fund which had a balance of $650 million in 2007 when Stuy Town's debt was first securitized is down to a meager $49.7 million. The origianal reserve fund set consisted of a $190 million general reserve as well as a $60 million replacement reserve, both of which have been depleted, as well as a $400 debt-shortfall service fund, which has now declined to just over 10% of its initial balance.

The reserve fund was drawn down by $7 million month to date, versus $13.3 million in July and $19.6 million in June, with an average decline in the reserve fund of $11.3 million per month. At this rate Stuy Town's reserves will be completely wiped out in four months, sometime in December.

To demonstrate what a colossal failure Tishman and Blackrock's assumptions have been from the very beginning, the property has a $23.8 million monthly debt service, while on the revenue side, according to first quarter data, the property generates $136.5 million in annual cash flow, or $11.4 million monthly, a $12.4 million monthly shortfall (a cap rate of about + infinity).

And to demonstrate just how bad (and getting progressively worse) real estate in New York is, midtown's Dream Hotel, owners Hampshire Group have notified special servicer LNR Group, that it wold not make any more payments on the $100 million loan against the property. According to CREDirect, in 2008 the property's cash flow dropped 11 percent to $7.8 million as occupancy fell 3% to 84%, with a DSCR drop from 1.41x in 2007 to 1.26x. Things have since deteriorated, not just for the now defaulted Dream, but for a vast majority of all other New York hotels who have been struggling with declining bookings and room rates.

As usual, there will be a way to spin this and make it seem like this is favorable news for REITs, whose stock prices are now completely disconnected from the reality of collapsing cash flows, declining DSCRs and reserve rates, and reduced rental rates.

h/t the Bankster

 

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Sun, 08/30/2009 - 12:43 | 53329 JohnKing
JohnKing's picture

Quick, call CALPERS, sell more REIT's to the fiduciary boys!

 

green shoot!

Sun, 08/30/2009 - 12:45 | 53331 Veteran
Veteran's picture

Man, what a shithole.  Who in their right mind wants to live in the projects anyway? New York sucks

Sun, 08/30/2009 - 15:54 | 53412 SteveNYC
SteveNYC's picture

Haha! I walked past Stuy Town today, couldn't help but think of this unfolding drama on the way past.

These guys had every intention of screwing the rent-control tenants (ok, who get an unfair deal in NYC, always have, BUT, try being a big RE developer in the city and upping the rent of a 90 year old woman, BAD, BAD PR!) to meet their investment returns.

I would imagine with the cash shortfall they simply thought they could get a perpetual negative amortization deal on their mortage to finance this thing until they beat all the tenants' heads in.

Reap what we sow!

Sun, 08/30/2009 - 12:51 | 53332 Ruth
Ruth's picture

why don't we just keep monetizing the whole system, keep smoking green shoots, it's just the tip of the iceberg, they'll need to pump up the volume a bit i'd say to keep up with this one, commercial's not like residential, this is gonna be ONE BIG MESS

Sun, 08/30/2009 - 13:08 | 53344 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

IYR has been one of the top performing sectors vs. SPY over the past month. Currently, it is the number one performing sector relative to the S&P over the last two weeks. Totally mind-boggling.

Sun, 08/30/2009 - 13:25 | 53354 Sqworl
Sqworl's picture

New name Bailout City...

Sun, 08/30/2009 - 15:07 | 53397 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

The Financial Capital of Bailout Nation...Late night informercial voice..."Don't live in the U.S.? Hell, don't let that get in your way! Just bum rush the border and there are free handouts waiting for you for damn near everything! We can't help you with details of how to do that(wink, wink), but once your here we'll set you up big time with weekly paychecks as long as you say you're looking, 4k for a car, 8k for a house, and now free healthcare! Don't matter if you smoke and drink everyday or eat fifteen meals a week in McD's and Dunkin Donuts...everyone else will make sure to give you money to care about your health even when you don't!"

Sun, 08/30/2009 - 13:26 | 53355 msorense
msorense's picture

A little off topic but this interview with economist Michael Hudson is a must listen - TD you might want to post this one.

 

http://www.kpfa.org/archive/id/53994

Sun, 08/30/2009 - 14:33 | 53387 Veteran
Veteran's picture

interesting.  thanks for the link

Sun, 08/30/2009 - 14:39 | 53389 Enkidu
Enkidu's picture

Interesting - and depressing...

Sun, 08/30/2009 - 14:42 | 53391 Thoreau
Thoreau's picture

Great interview. Thanks.

Sun, 08/30/2009 - 15:06 | 53396 Sqworl
Sqworl's picture

SOS..Banana Republic...thanks for link

Sun, 08/30/2009 - 17:14 | 53450 D.O.D.
D.O.D.'s picture

Wow, the end is certainly near... thanks for the link!

Sun, 08/30/2009 - 20:01 | 53516 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

This guy knows his stuff! I heard him a week earlier about Iceland. Another story worth following. Banks want the citizens of Iceland to pay for the private central banks losses. Remember what Andrew Jackson said??

Sun, 08/30/2009 - 20:10 | 53519 Careless Whisper
Careless Whisper's picture

Brilliant

Sun, 08/30/2009 - 22:21 | 53588 Rollerball
Rollerball's picture

Truth.  Thank you.

Mon, 08/31/2009 - 02:02 | 53706 Carolyn
Carolyn's picture

Wow, Mr. Hudson makes it so clear.  Thanks to him, I can now clearly see the bottom of my financial future as it comes up to smack me in my face!  (BTW, as it so happens, my cousin lives in Iceland.  Maybe I should fluff up the sleeping bag and spare pillow for her to use when she lands on my doorstep in a few months with all her earthly possessions stowed neatly in her handbag.)

Mon, 08/31/2009 - 05:09 | 53721 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

an absolutely superb interview - michael hudson
is an american hero....this is must listen.

Sun, 08/30/2009 - 13:31 | 53359 BrianOFlanagan
BrianOFlanagan's picture

What they should do is take it public.  The market will love it.  Bankruptcy is a good thing ya know, just force the debholders to extend to infinity. Equity gets a super long-term option and debt holders get paid sometime in the next century.  Everybody wins!

 

Sun, 08/30/2009 - 13:56 | 53367 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Press release from Fitch with some additional details:

http://www.reuters.com/article/pressRelease/idUS189228+28-Aug-2009+BW200...

Sun, 08/30/2009 - 14:00 | 53371 Howard_Beale
Howard_Beale's picture

Dear TD--I really miss your "Weekend Reading" section. And no I'm not too lazy to scour it out myself but it was a real treat to have the TD Sunday Times.

Sun, 08/30/2009 - 16:32 | 53427 slowcoder
Sun, 08/30/2009 - 14:00 | 53372 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Michael Moore presents on Oct 2, 09:
http://www.capitalismalovestory.com/

I am going to first show..

Sun, 08/30/2009 - 15:57 | 53414 dnarby
dnarby's picture

Oh, grrrreaaaat...  Just what we need, a hyper-partisan propagandist to weigh in.

With any luck he'll have a coronary before he can get anything shot.

Sun, 08/30/2009 - 14:02 | 53374 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

In the world I see - you are stalking elk through the damp canyon forests around the ruins of Rockefeller Center. You'll wear leather clothes that will last you the rest of your life. You'll climb the wrist-thick kudzu vines that wrap the Sears Tower. And when you look down, you'll see tiny figures pounding corn, laying strips of venison on the empty car pool lane of some abandoned superhighway.

Sun, 08/30/2009 - 17:23 | 53455 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

If only the Rockefeller family would implode like a
black hole, sucking themselves into an eternity
in the lake of fire where they belong.

Sun, 08/30/2009 - 22:26 | 53591 Rollerball
Rollerball's picture

Leather is too noisy to hunt in.  And I wouldn't waste a bullet on an elk.  You'll just hear the thump after my knife penetrates the throat.

Sun, 08/30/2009 - 23:39 | 53630 PenGun
PenGun's picture

 You have never seen an Elk. They live around here. I saw a female the other day. Maybe 600 lbs. A male is 1000 lbs and very nasty. The most dangerous thing here and we have Cougars and Black Bear eveywhere.

 

 I'll watch with interest if you'll take one on with a knife.

Sun, 08/30/2009 - 14:06 | 53376 Miles Kendig
Miles Kendig's picture

Watch out
You might get what youre after
Cool babies
Strange but not a stranger
Im an ordinary guy
Burning down the house

Hold tight wait till the partys over
Hold tight were in for nasty weather
There has got to be a way
Burning down the house

Heres your ticket pack your bag: time for jumpin overboard
The transportation is here
Close enough but not too far, maybe you know where you are
Fightin fire with fire

All wet
Hey you might need a raincoat
Shakedown
Dreams walking in broad daylight
Three hun-dred six-ty five de-grees
Burning down the house

It was once upon a place sometimes I listen to myself
Gonna come in first place
People on their way to work baby what did you except
Gonna burst into flame

My house
Sout of the ordinary
Thats might
Dont want to hurt nobody
Some things sure can sweep me off my feet
Burning down the house

No visible means of support and you have not seen nuthin yet
Everythings stuck together
I dont know what you expect starring into the tv set
Fighting fire with fire

Sun, 08/30/2009 - 14:15 | 53378 Sqworl
Sqworl's picture

Conversion budget was burned by contractor and subcontractor...Kaching..The replacement value for vanity made the military look cheap!

Sun, 08/30/2009 - 14:20 | 53379 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Rise and Fall. Brings to mind the rise and fall of two steel and concrete towers in Manhattan. Purported to have been brought down by a deep conspiracy of Islamic religious fanatics angry at Satan USA. If Osama Bin Laden were sick to violence because he saw an empty, rapacious, inequitable economic system which chose winners and losers while lying to participants that it was all merit based and Free. Targeting other nations with their eco-political cabal.
If that system did manipulate the psychology of the people, the industrial policy of the nation, the bond/equity/derivative/forex markets of the world; if they lay as predators using inside gaming and automated trading to fleece the innocents of the world; if they coopted the political power to further extort the fat of the land--hoovering them up into their pockets, then they really were what they were perceived to be. Iniquitious, conspiratorial global terrorists without compare.

The twin towers came down very neatly, all that elaborate structure somehow being reduced to simple small almost portable pieces. The winners? Other real estate interests in NY which had the glut overnight transformed into a net scarcity. The military which used specious links to terror to launch wars throughout the middle and far east. The tower owner who needed impossibly expensive asbestos remediation and necessary retrofitting to overcome the extensive design flaws. The owner was handsomely repaid with double insurance payouts. AIG anyone? See the comparison?

Bringing down this tower of Babel which is the Debt peonage, superamplified business cycle, end-of-days rapacious looting has its designated winners too.
In a system where the unit of accounting has no stability, and is used as a tool to distort economic truths as revealed in other markets, in a system where taxpayer liquidity is used to trade against their interests, in a system where their retirements, health, savings, land and structures, livelihoods, and future earnings capacity have been destroyed by pull-forward false demand, this is an EVIL EMPIRE. Where falsehood is established as state policy by balance sheet manoevres, by no-standard accounting standards, by official bureaucratic lie-making, by slippery handed debt and equity manipulation, this is state terrorism against its governed masses.

In the fall of the dollar, in the fall of a false empire, in a fall of any structure of man, the tragedy is made worse by the open corruption and defiant evil of the powerful.

This is the face of the Great Satan. This is the age-old evil which diminishes the happiness and hope for the future. Those who have historically opposed it have been the heroes and patriots. The greatest lie of today is that our institutions founded on virtue and integrity are not the paragons of evildoing and exploitation. The USA, its bankers and politicians, are servants of all the dark arts and its prince reigns through them.

Throw out the money changers and high priests who crucify those who seek to restore the virtuous cycle in trade for their continued gain and position.

Sooner or later, it must crumble down.

Mon, 08/31/2009 - 03:50 | 53716 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

it will crumble when yahushua destroys it.....

in the mean time the great irony of our time is
that the usa is indeed the great satan....

i can remember laughing at that sobriquet first
heard during the first gult war but
when i learned that the very same oligarchy
which murdered jfk, rfk, mlk, rwr (failed), rmn also
destroyed the wtc with skandia labs created
nano-thermite all of the pieces fell into place...

the bush crime syndicate is alive and well...the
great deals had in the destruction of the wtc fell
on neil bush who oh so coincidentally was on the
board of the insurer who just happened to cancel
the insurance contract on wtc days before the
destruction...

the rockefellers, bushes, soros', bundys, and
many more grey eminences pull the strings of
power, deceit, and destruction....it will end
very badly for them but we will all suffer on
our way to redemption....

Sun, 08/30/2009 - 14:23 | 53381 windhorse2000
windhorse2000's picture

Msorense:.... thanks for the post,....."Dress Rehearsal For Debt Peonage" with economist Dr. Michael Hudson, brilliant!.....must hear interview!

Sun, 08/30/2009 - 14:27 | 53383 madmax
madmax's picture

There is a green shot in this somewhere, damnit...I just know there is! 

Sun, 08/30/2009 - 15:59 | 53415 dnarby
dnarby's picture

They're growing in various closets and storerooms in the projects.

Mon, 08/31/2009 - 09:33 | 53764 TeresaE
TeresaE's picture

Nah, they are growing under stolen electricity in empty homes and businesses all over the country.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Sun, 08/30/2009 - 14:41 | 53390 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Big ups to Bed-Sty! Holla!

Sun, 08/30/2009 - 16:25 | 53424 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Will filing for bankruptcy make all lease contracts null and void and allow Stuy-Town to charge market rents to rent controlled tenants and essentially get rid of them?

Sun, 08/30/2009 - 16:29 | 53425 Careless Whisper
Careless Whisper's picture

Let's give Mister Jerry Speyer a golf clap for his public service as Chairman of the Board of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Oh, and all his work for advancing education for the underprivileged while on the Board of The Dalton School.

http://gothamist.com/2009/07/04/nyc_prep_world_reels_over_bravos_ny.php

 

Sun, 08/30/2009 - 16:42 | 53434 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

A State Assemblyman gave a stress test to properties in his central Brooklyn district, and apparently the whole region is filled with dominoes dangerously swaying in the winds of Hurricane Lehman. In all, Crain's reports, the survey determined that 65 market-rate residential buildings in the neighborhoods of Fort Greene, Clinton Hill, Prospect Heights, Crown Heights and Bed-Stuy are financially troubled or on the verge of distress. The list includes stalled projects as well as new buildings that are completed and unoccupied, such as Clinton Hill's The Collection at 525 Clinton Avenue (oh, what sweet memories) and the Isabella at 545 Washington Avenue, which some eggheads believe represents everything that's wrong with America.

Developers of both buildings are in the early stages of foreclosure, and State Assemblyman Hakeem Jeffries wants to turn the unsold units into affordable housing, similar to the City Council's HARP plan. Surprisingly, Fort Greene's Forté—which should soon wind up in the hands of its lender—didn't make Jeffries' list. The Isabella still has some active listings for those looking to live dangerously.
· 65 central Brooklyn condos in or near financial distress [Crain's]
· A Trip Inside Clinton Hill's 'The Collection 525' [Curbed]

http://curbed.com/archives/2009/08/28/survey_65_brooklyn_buildings_send_...

Sun, 08/30/2009 - 20:29 | 53528 Careless Whisper
Careless Whisper's picture

I agree Anon, it was Hurricane Lehman. Let's not forget the $22 Billion deal Jerry Speyer did with Lehman for Archstone-Smith. "Pride goeth before destruction, and a haughty spirit before a fall."  Proverbs 16:18

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/05/30/business/30tishman.html?pagewanted=1&_r=1

 

Mon, 08/31/2009 - 09:34 | 53765 TeresaE
TeresaE's picture

Never fear, Barney Frank is currently writing a bill that will take the "repaid" TARP funds and gift to the low income housing units.

Cash for Projects.

I'm sure this will be a winner too!

Sun, 08/30/2009 - 16:43 | 53435 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

Just mow the whole place down.

It is place, build a new stadium, a new greyhound racetrack, a a new casino for the gamblers...

LOL....

Sun, 08/30/2009 - 17:30 | 53457 deadhead
deadhead's picture

and the Charlie Rangel Memorial Hall of Fame

Mon, 08/31/2009 - 03:53 | 53718 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

memorial hall of shame.

Sun, 08/30/2009 - 17:20 | 53453 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

One more nail in Obama's "green shoots" scenario

Sun, 08/30/2009 - 17:28 | 53456 flaxpin
flaxpin's picture

They could decrease vacancies by decreasing rent instead of simply offering the no broker fee / free one month rent offer.  14th and 1st isn't prime enough to support the $3000 rents they're asking for.

Sun, 08/30/2009 - 17:54 | 53472 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

The shit is flying through the air towards the fan. REITS are just another of several turds which will (and must) obliterate this bear market bounce and send us down to new lows.

Tuesday is September 1st, which marks the official start-date for Crash Season.

Anyone staying long between September and January has balls of titanium.

History is approaching...

Sun, 08/30/2009 - 18:17 | 53479 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Long ago, before the turn of the millennium, I had a buddy who worked in wtc (building 7 I think) on a trading floor. Came to visit him, and as I walked through the pit, with its glass walls and gothic-cathedral-high ceilings, this is the song that drummed into my head:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EyGsywAcrK0

Kept remembering that visit, and that song I could not stop assocating with it, after Sept. 11, 2001, and then after Sept. 15, 2008.

Sun, 08/30/2009 - 22:35 | 53596 Rollerball
Rollerball's picture

Sheeple blood for the passover/under.

Mon, 08/31/2009 - 01:22 | 53693 MsCreant
MsCreant's picture

Went to listen. This is nice, know their stuff but did not know this one.

Mon, 08/31/2009 - 08:32 | 53738 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

That's the old trading floor of NYMEX, COMEX, CSCE and NYFE. It was not in Building 7, it was 4. Nonetheless, it no longer exists.

Sun, 08/30/2009 - 19:31 | 53502 Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

$50,000 fishing degrees for everyone. Then outsource the fish. The systems not slaving people any more it's just become a heartless killer.

Sun, 08/30/2009 - 20:49 | 53542 Sqworl
Sqworl's picture

HAHAHAHA

Sun, 08/30/2009 - 22:09 | 53578 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

7 years of feasting via title insurance, realtoring, mortgage packaging, loan bolstering, salesmanshipping.
7 years of absolute famine where all the white collar boom money jobs vanish overnight, and construction, and manufacturing. Add all the luxury hotels and hospitality industry with cruise ships, soon to be refitted as hospital ships, economic triage centers, and squatter meccas.
The seven lean did consume the seven healthy, but were diminished in size nonetheless.

Sun, 08/30/2009 - 19:45 | 53510 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

I think some people are confusing Stuyvesant Town, a middle class development at 14th and 1st in Manhattan, with Bedford-Stuyvesant, a high crime neighborhood in Brooklyn. Stuy Town apartments are very nice places to live, meant for middle class families, and if you had one on rent control you were getting a fantastic deal. Tishman is suffering the consequences of the same hubris and shortsighted thinking that is doing in all the developers in Williamsburg. Despite New York being the center of the bubble economy, there really is a limit to the amount of people who can realistically afford $3000 plus for a one bedroom. Now that the rents are dropping all over the city, the folly of basing your cash flow on a totally unrealistic projection for monthly rents is really going to burn Tishman-Speyer.

Mon, 08/31/2009 - 10:24 | 53820 Careless Whisper
Careless Whisper's picture

correction: burn the bondholders

Sun, 08/30/2009 - 20:15 | 53521 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

@ SteveNYC

That's the problem. They won't reap what they've sown. The principals will walk away and the lenders will get bailed out.

THERE IS NO ACCOUNTABILITY.

Sun, 08/30/2009 - 22:35 | 53595 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

I had a horrifying dinner with 2 friends in the private equity business. I was ranting, ZH style, about how the bottom line in this whole mess of an economy is that everything is worth about half of what we paid for it, our houses, commercial buildings, planes, property, stocks, etc. These guys are not small players and somewhat shockingly they agreed. They said the government would continue to support the big money players until the asset values caught up. We'll print the money, one said. One said (after drinking a lot) that if he had to mark his assets to market he would be way under water, insolvent. They both laughed at this in the most bizarre, we're fucking the government way and getting away with it. One said he shares a plane with [PE giant] to DC every few weeks to "twist arms." My wife and I kept looking at each other, making sure we were both hearing the same thing and kind of checking to make sure we weren't just drunk and imagining things. So people who own enormous amounts of assets and owe enormous sums of money know they have the full support of our government. I realize this isn't a revelation but I have to say that I am kind of in fog of rage and despair.

Mon, 08/31/2009 - 01:29 | 53694 MsCreant
MsCreant's picture

Some of this is a huge disconnect. We are not stealing from people, we are stealing from the government.

Congrats on knowing it on a gut level like this. The fog of rage and dispair is the only remote hope we have of things being different. Until we all feel it, until it is more than an abstract idea, none of this can possibly change.

I say this gently, makes me wonder if you are reevaluating the term "friend."

Mon, 08/31/2009 - 03:58 | 53719 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

no they are stealing from people - who are the
very life blood of government....who do you
think pays taxes which can be stolen?

Mon, 08/31/2009 - 01:33 | 53696 Veteran
Veteran's picture

"I realize this isn't a revelation"

 

Hey brother,  your company leaves something to be desired. Reminds me of a few lines from Platoon.  Something along the line of why ol boy joined when everyone else was being drafted. He said it wasn't fair for all the poor people to be drafted.  Another broke dick bums that he had to be rich just to think like that.  Poor people were getting fucked by the man.  Always had, always will

 

PS:  Bunny:  Nothing like a piece of Pussy, 'cept maybe the Indy 5'hundred

Mon, 08/31/2009 - 04:00 | 53720 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

thanks for posting this....these first hand
accounts are excellent....

i will refrain from characterising your friends.

Mon, 08/31/2009 - 08:39 | 53741 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Yet another perfectly good reason to stop my quarterly tax payments. Let some pencil necked geek come visit me to try to collect and all he'll get is a face full of buckshot. Got most everything of value moved offshore or physical, so not much for anyone to garnische. Ain't no use being the slave to the elite.

A revolt starts with one man.

Mon, 08/31/2009 - 22:45 | 54725 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

I'll give you one guess who is covering them for environmental insurance including the "gashouse" stuff from the past and mold in the future, but you'll have to buy a vowel: A_G.

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!