This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.
Sugar High Ending? Retail Sales Tumble 1.2%, Down 1.1% Ex Autos,
The retail sales sugar high is now over with disappointment across the board. Advance retail sales come in at -1.2%, compared to consensus of 0.2%. Previous 0.4% reading revised to 0.6%. Ex-autos down to -1.1%, versus expectation of 0.1%. Ex-auto and gas -0.8% versus estimate of 0.3%.
From the Census:
The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for May, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $362.5 billion, a decrease of 1.2 percent (±0.5%) from the previous month, but 6.9 percent (±0.7%) above May 2009. Total sales for the March through May 2010 period were up 8.1 percent (±0.3%) from the same period a year ago. The March to April 2010 percent change was revised from +0.4 percent (±0.5%)* to +0.6 percent (±0.4%).
Retail trade sales were down 1.4 percent (±0.5%) from April 2010, but 7.4 percent (±0.7%) above last year. Gasoline stations sales were up 20.2 percent (±1.8%) from May 2009 and nonstore retailers sales were up 15.6 percent (±1.8%) from last year. The advance estimates are based on a subsample of the Census Bureau’s full retail and food services sample. A stratified random sampling method is used to select approximately 5,000 retail and food services firms whose sales are then weighted and benchmarked to represent the complete universe of over three million retail and food services firms. Responding firms account for approximately 65% of the MARTS dollar volume estimate. For an explanation of the measures of sampling variability included in this report, please see the Reliability of Estimates section on the last page of this publication.
Full report.
»
- 5514 reads
- Printer-friendly version
- Send to friend
- advertisements -
CB/CH is going to start drating QE2 now.
Especially when Bernanke says this on WSJ : Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke says he’s a bit puzzled by surging gold prices.“I don’t fully understand movements in the gold price,” Mr. Bernanke admitted. But he suggested it might be another example of investors fleeing risky assets and flocking to assets that are perceived as less risky, not only Treasury bonds, but also ones like gold."
Now is this a scenario when the fox is asked why the hens are terrified......
QE2 has already begun - the Coast Guard was given a blanket spending check by Congress (410-0 vote) yesterday.
Whocoodanode!
Signed,
Benron
should be good for another 10 pts on the S and P then
Retail sales actually down 1.6% when compared to the intially reported April numbers, not that anyone wants to look at the real numbers.
Real numbers and the Ponzi is similar to silver bullets and vampires.
Not good.
I'll give you a pass, you are truly a contributor here at ZH, but me thinks you meant to say either wooden stakes and vampires, or silver bullets and werewolves. :)
So that's why the silver bullet didn't kill me. That's what I get when I start juggling bowling balls. :>)
BTW CNBC at 9:15 AM is spinning this retail report as a one month aberration by way of a talking head task force of three people with consensus views. Surprise.
BTW2, Chapter 4 will be posted in a few hours. Thanks for your support.
What is CNBC, it still exists???
You probably watch it so you can laugh at their ignorance or straight-face lies... I wonder if they really believe what they say, I really think they do, as if they didn't then they would be just to good to say something with such as passion and never slipping up...
They will do till they get fired, not becasue CNBC is letting them go, but because CNBC won't exist anymore. I now have 1.5 - 2 year timeframe on them, unless they are one of the TARP, QE, QE2, QE28 or QE56, so that the administration (any) can just use them for their version of the story... Then the timeframe is about the same with the first failed auction....
I watch it because, like it or hate it, I'm in the business. So I need to know what others are seeing real time on CNBC. The fact is that CNBC is being displayed on all trading desks, usually with volume off. So I would be at a disadvantage not knowing what "they" know if I didn't have it running (volume off) on my desk top.
But I understand exactly what you're saying. The spin has gone off the disgraceful meter. CNBC puts the old 60's-70's Pravda to shame with their bald faced boob laced propaganda.
"What is CNBC, it still exists???"
Ratings Counting Captive Viewers
I walked into a TBTF bank with a friend in a state capital city that shall remain nameless...
While standing in the slow line due to the poor service since the bank is TBTF...
Teevee monitors above the inefficient tellers were playing mind numbing CNBC idiocy while the sheeple waited in line.
I am sure each one of us was counted as "viewers" for "ratings" purposes as a deal between CNBC and TBTF...
What an UNHOLY alliance...
We eagerly await, thank you C/D.
With millions of unemployed losing all benefits, or knowing they will lose benefits shortly it's not that surprising that retail sales are down.
@voltaic
+1. If we had a real media, they'd be investigating the circumstances of the people rolling off of the extended unemployment benefits. As it is, yesterday we were treated to stories that the economy could be improving because these people "might" be finding work. Was Isvesta this bad?
They are rolling over to Food Stamps (SNAP), which crossed the 40 million mark (March latest numbers out). I wouldn't be surprised to see April's numbers at 40.5 million...the number projected for Sept 2010.
Yeah, knocked the stuffings out of the Futures
If BB doesn't understand the rise in Gold then he probably doesn't understand this either.
Oh Ben undestands. " Oh Ben talk Thai..Ben talk Thai real good" Ben and the 4 Bankerteers also understand the money printing eventually would no longer outrun the money sucked out of annuities, spending, mortgage/credit card payments and whatever is left in stocks if the recovery never showed and here we are in June 2010. Time to take the recovery off the milkcarton because it is In a ditch somewhere. Earnings estimates have to come down.
" Oh Ben talk Thai..Ben talk Thai real good"
LOL. Of course he understands both, but feigns ignorance very well.
Why do you think they gunned the S&P yesterday?
Now it can drop 300 points and, from the market's perspective, nothing has changed.
They talked about how all the wealth that was created in Q1 was from equities, but that is a fallacy. Marginal pricing of equities does not creat WEALTH.
Just like marginal pricing of housing did not create wealth.
Wait till the run on equities really starts in earnest. It will when people realize their stocks are no where near equal to the "dollar" value on their monthly statements.
It's a figment of everyone's imagination.
+1
Too many people prefer imagination land to reality.
Retail sales - the cummulative actions of hundreds of millions of individuals vs. a survey of 500 households (consumer sentiment):
Market says who to we want to believe? Consumer Sentiment
+1
I will laugh at all morons that say equity markets create VALUE, I mean yes, just as casino does.
And the most PATHETIC lame-ass spectacle is the upstanding ovation or cheering once the markets close higher or reach a cetain level, clapping at the market is for imbeciles. Like lame fraternity kiddos cheering after downing a beer.
Create value by shorting the ramps;o}
+1 yeah, thats the game, short all the way down to S&P 500 in 2011 then a rally and S&P 300 to 2014-16.
I never understood that either...strange, unless they're just happy to be getting out to the nearest pub to get hammered.
WHAT? Are you telling me that the wonderful men and women in our military fighting for "democracy and free-markets" are receiving NEITHER here in their home country?
I am SHOCKED...SHOCKED!
I just fell in love with you a little bit.
Bernanke, god i nearly ate my fist listening to that bare faced lying shit yesterday. This number was always going to suck.
I don't know whether to be excited that I am alive, at 30 years old, in this time of history, or be absolutely fucking terrified about what is likely to be a shitstorm to make the 30's and 40's look like a walk in the park.
To any other gen x's or y's or whatever the fucking media chooses to label those born 1970-1980 - how often do you talk to your mates and think
'what gives you the idea that we have defeated history and are immune from events such as the cultural revolution, the great depression, the french revolution, WW1 or 2, the dark ages or any other expression of human history?'
At least we have the world cup, extend and pretend bitches.
"I don't know whether to be excited that I am alive, at 30 years old, in this time of history, or be absolutely fucking terrified about what is likely to be a shitstorm to make the 30's and 40's look like a walk in the park."
I'm 50, two kids (19 and 16), and a wife who is 45. "Finance" is one of my main passions and where I make my money (mortgages), but my MAIN "passion" is History and this period has me both excited and petrified. How am I "coping?" At worst, just like the frog in the slowly boiling pot.
I'm guessing that I'm not alone.
BTW, my parents, born in 1920 and 1921, met in HS and both are now resting peacefully. When I consider their experiences for the first 25 years of life AND that I'm just about to send a Care package to a Marine in Afghanistan.......I have perspective, too!
For whatever reason, i give a lot of thought to what i would like for my future kids, if i'm lucky enough to have any (otherwise whats the point right? i imagine myself as just a super complex suit of armor for my DNA that has attained self awareness, kinda like the terminator movies but carbon rather than silicon based... anyway...)
soooo, if i had two kids that age, i would say go into a trade such as mechanic work, carpentry, or if they are REALLY gifted engineering of some kind. but in general extending the hoop jumping government high school scheme of poodle training another 3 years and paying for the privilege is not worth it.
Learn to do something real. The carb either works or it doesn't, the table is either level or it isn't. Encourage engagement with the physical world. For a good book try that 'why working with your hands is good for or why office work is bad for you' or whatever its called.
Think for yourself, dont' join the dog and pony show that is corporate america/britain/australia. Do NOT get a credit card. Learn to earn what you have, and respect what you have. Learn where things come from, and if you choose to abuse the system, at least understand it.
oh yeah, and learn to surf, play the guitar and play as much rugby as possible - smashing people on their ass is only second in terms of fun to getting smashed and standing back up. golf can wait.
best of luck sir
I'm with you, capping myself and wife to one kid. That's it. She wants more, I'll have a vasectomy same day she asks.
99% of our generation is, unfortunately, not self-aware. They do not even have a clue about the world they are living in. They have I-pods stuffed in their ears, their eyes glued to the I-phone or TV. We are effectively "machines" until we realize this, look inside, and choose to be consciously aware of what we do, how we effect others etc.
I choose no television. I choose no I-pod/I-phone. I choose no main-stream media. I choose to educate myself, to study history, to study the wisdom of Buddha, to understand the nature of all things (emptyness), to meditate, to feel my emotions, to watch my thoughts. I choose to be aware.
haha totally. 30 minute tube ride home - what is it in New York? Metro? Most people need the constant ADD media input from iphones, whatever, anything to distract their crack addict brains from thinking. Then those who like to think that they 'care and are nice people' jump on whatever the liberal press tells them. More band aids for an actual thought process.
I should know i used to be one of them.
Worked at JPM from age of 20. Fresh out of uni. Blah blah blah, credit crunch came - i had a bet with my mate that (and I quote myself, so embarassed) 'we have Hank in the treasury and Bernanke has studied the great depression, we'll be fine, short lived minor recession at worst' - again see, a bandaid answer so i dont' have to think for myself right?
How fucking wrong. How utterly embarassingly completey wrong.
Well, there started the re-education process. I thought to myself, if what i was taught in uni (econ/finance/mandarin majors) was so right -oh and so ironic my school taught me keynes and freidman ie government interference in an economy is good - where THE FUCK was Hayek, Mises, Woods etc???? - how the hell did we end up with these imbalances and why (LTCM, tech boom, sub prime, sovereign (coming soon) are they getting more frequent and more severe? something must be wrong.
I remember as a kid asking my mommy what a (NZ) dollar was, and being utterly baffled at 7 years old as to the answer.
'So if i turn up to the RBNZ they will give me the equivalent value in gold?'
'uh no sweetie, its worth a dollar cause they say it is'
'who is they?'
'the government'
'oh fuck this'
seriously, i thought i was stupid for not understanding, now i trust MYSELF and if i don't get it i think I'm not stupid the system is.
My reeducation started with:
Thomas E Woods
Ron Paul
Hayek
vonmises.org
zerohedge.com
and most importantly - that spongy grey matter in between my ears.
a big thankyou to all the commentators on zerohedge over the last two years. You have delivered a great service to at least one hick dumb fuck antipodean kid. cheers.
+1...I remain impressed with most of the minds I meet from down under. Sometimes I think you kiwis and ozzies are going to be the last ones standing. It must be the Foster's.
Fosters? Fsck that, Tooth Sheaf Stout!
Oh and SteveNYC, please. Breed. Breed like a fucking rabbit, otherwise the welfare sponging braindead classes will outnumber us 5:1 in 30 years time and it will be hell on earth. You owe it to your forefathers to carry on that dna that can at least generate independent thought.
Comments like these really inspire me not to loose hope. Thanks
Not the breeding comment.
Haha, I am completely flattered, thank you. But it has nothing to do with me. I needed a full-blown nervous breakdown several years ago to see the light. Now, I simply try to be a good custodian of the "light". Ensure my life is primarily spent trying to ease suffering, to maintain sovereignity over my own mind and help others do the same. Like we all should.
We are a race that is wasting away. I always wonder when I see young Indian and Chinese kids in the city, striving away, working untold hours, listening to their Shit-Pods and looking at their Shit-berries, WHY, OH WHY THE FUCK DO YOU WANT TO BE LIKE US?? Seriously, your cultures had it RIGHT thousands of years ago. Pick up the torch you schmucks, purge yourself of this "consumer", "me, me, me" mentality that is a cancer in our society.
We are living in the age of Kali (google it).
Check out www.worldvision.org for another way to alleviate suffering.
Bless you brother. My family and I have been supporters of World Vision for 2 decades now.....and going strong.....
I wander back and forth between a strange excitement and severe anxiety. We've got an almost three-year-old, a 15-month-old, and another one due in a few months. Sometimes I wonder at the world they'll be raised in and sometimes I think we'll need as many hands as possible to stay afloat.
I try to prepare as best as I can without succumbing to panic. I'd rather transition to a simpler life of my own volition than be forced in to it by the external crisis.
I'm 53. When I was a kid, and all the way through my teen years, the general feeling among my peers was that we would eventually be annihilated in a nuclear exchange with the Soviets. I recall vividly the general zeitgeist that we should not take things to seriously and have fun while we could because the end was inevitable. You never know how these things are going to turn out. Do what you need to do to position yourself and your family to get through whatever comes along and don't panic about what you can't control.
Give us the grace to accept with serenity
the things that cannot be changed, Courage
to change the things which should be changed,
And the wisdom to distinguish the one from the other
Gunning the futures ahead of a bad number - another perfect trading day for GS prop desk.
That's the best they could do with tax refunds? Does not bode well. This looks like the beginning of the end Forunemployment check bonanza. Look for eBay to have a great month as people turn to their home for income.I also notice I have been seeing less armed forces commercials lately. Likely because they are not needed. Falling sales and rising dollar cannot be great for retailers.
'Look for eBay to have a great month as people turn to their home for income'
you win at connect the dots, i love and hate this site because comments like this make me feel like a grade A retard, when my ego wants to go 'yah you're clever'
nicely done Sir.
I guess everyone blew through their tax "refunds" in April.
I filed our return late (extension, etc). I'm STILL WAITING for the $2,300 the Govt owes us.
Tyler, Tyler, Tyler, do you not understand? It was not cold/warm weather this time. People are glued to their televisions watching the BP disaster. People just can't stop watching the BP live video stream of the leak.
See how simple it is to explain the disappointment in sales?
Maybe they can sell a few hundred thousand "Dow 10K" hats as the market slowly sinks into the abyss. They go nicely with those "Nikkei 40K" chapeaus
where's Christina Romer?
where's Austan Goolsbee?
where's Jared Bernstein?
In some dictionary...under "shill".
I want to see Christina Romer busted down to high school teacher in inner city Detroit.
One wonders what the number would be ex-ipad sales?
Yo Yo Yo!!! wait a minute! I thought China-land exports liek doubled or something! And now i hear that yanks ar enot buying? Europeans sure as heck are not spending as they used to.... so where the heck this chinese sh*t is? in some giant warehouses? or like those rented tankers full of oil, there are cargo boats full of "consumer good" floating around?
According to Marc Faber, about half of China's exports go to emerging markets.
Speaking of giant warehouses, China is stockpiling hard commodities big-time, according to the RBS:
http://www.arpllp.com/core_files/The%20Absolute%20Return%20Letter%200510...
Look up miniscribe on wikipedia (Ship those bricks!)
jobless, sale'less recovery?
Rule 48, anyone? ;)
Retail Sales in U.S. Fall as Consumers Boost Savings (Update2)
By Bob Willis June 11 (Bloomberg) -- Sales at U.S. retailers unexpectedly dropped in May, signaling consumers boosted savings as employment slowed and stocks fell. ...
"as consumers boost savings"...well then, it's all okay. Folks are just saving a little more.
The decline couldn't possibly be due to a contraction in consumer credit or the fact that the total dollars available to be spent is shrinking due to higher unemployment and lower overall wages.
No, not those reasons at all, otherwise peoeple would realize the "recovery" is nothing of the sort.
It's more like a boa constrictor slowly tightening itself around the economy.
They are guessing savings is increasing...it will be interesting to see if they really are.
You just knew when Cramer came on CNBS yesterday afternoon talking up retail stocks, today's news on lousy retail sales numbers was a given....
are people stocking up on gas now in anticipation of an upsurge in fuel prices ?!
I donno - last month my american express credit card bill was 5.5k, this month it's 900 dollars. i didnt stop spending. just noise.
the above: not to say ppl didnt spend as much - only that there's noise and it's not 'bad' if ECO data doesn't move in a one-direction linear line at the exact median forecast..
you know. a tent city in central park hasnt been established. there's a lot of leasing activity with more pricing power shifting back to the seller... sure. lots of time needed to get over all the stuff that has happenend...
you know. we'll see, etc etc etc
"a tent city in central park hasnt been established"
Looking to be the first?
Retail sales way down. Now Congress is looking to extend the home buyer tax credit until Sept 30.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/06/10/AR2010061005434.html
HOMEBUYERTAXCREDIT4EVA
Ironic, sugar is down ~ 42%YTD.
Hey Everybody Leo's Signing in as Ryan1053. You crazy malaka.
so ridiculous to hear every bank economist trying to tell me that "this number isn't that bad" ... looks pretty bad to me....
Market rally if Consumer sentiment comes in at concensus or higher...
and it did.
no - i'm not leo ... medium term-reader, first time commenter :)
never signed in as someone else - just not as negative on the state of the world as most here - (i know that's rare as far as ZH commenters go)
i love the site - one of the best for consolodating important fin/eco news in a timely period of time. well-written, by someone who has a great depth of understanding on most topics ...
so i love to read - also for the alternate opinion -- balance out my opinions, which are muted-positive...not discounting what happened or saying all is well... but I blv things are, and will continue, to improve..
most of the issues that are affecting the world feel natural from the events--which were not natural--that took place. I think most of this will work itself out in 2-3 years.
just my morning thoughts
"I think most of this will work itself out in 2-3 years."
Ah, the people who believe it is possible to be slightly pregnant still exist. So naive, yet able to pass the basic math test to post a comment.
It's always darkest just before it's completely black!
Love it, headline on Bloomberg is that they dropped "unexpectedly". Yeah it was unexpected if you were just plain ignorant or a Wall Street snake oil salesperson.
The miniscule rise in March and April was strictly due to tax refunds. Anybody who didn't see that was high or trying to sell you the Brooklyn Bridge.
Looks like indices all went positive, unepected drops are good
Yeah, Michigan Survey said consumers are very confident, apparently with the governments wallet not their own.
Yep the market ran back up on consumer sentiment survey. What a load of hooey. I guess consumers feel better now that they are buying less. Who is it that feeds these circle jerks on news? I guess if they didnt trade they would have nothing to do.
Spending down but sentiment up. good one.
go check out how the michigan survey is constructed.
what a load of shit. 30 michigan stoner uni students asked what they think about the future and stoxx puts on 70 points...
Here comes the summer of discontent
where can i buy food stamp futures?
The sugar high is over; next is the body politic's withdrawal from all of 0bama's distilled rainbow and powdered unicorns horn.