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Summarizing Today's Economic Data Barrage

Tyler Durden's picture





 

Today's economic data barrage:

  • Initial claims at 405K, better than consensus 415K. This number is probably totally bogus due to next week's imminent revision much higher: last week's number was revised from 418K to a whopping 427K; 4 week moving average 423.8K; Driver likely lack of auto plant shutdowns, says Bloomberg economist Joseph Brusuelas
  • Non seasonally adjusted claims up 45K to 470K
  • Continuing Claims 3,727K vs. Exp. 3,680K. And another massive reivision higher: previous at 3681K, revised to 3712K.
  • The Unemployed on EUCs and Extended Benefits continue declining, down 16K in the week ended June 25
  • PPI in June fell 0.4% M/m vs est. 0.2% decline (range 0.6% drop to 0.3% rise) - biggest drop since February 2010; PPI ex. food, energy up 0.3% vs est. 0.2% gain (range 0.1%-0.3%); Less threatening inflation situation’’ helps Fed if they have any thoughts of QE3, says Bloomberg economist Rich Yamarone
  • June Advance Retail Sales up 0.1% vs est. 0.1% drop (range 0.7% decline to 0.5% gain); Ex. autos unchanged, matching est. (range 0.8% drop to 0.5% gain); Ex. autos and gas up 0.2% vs est. 0.4% gain (range 0.1%-0.8% rise); Unexpected rise in motor vehicles, parts likely behind increase in headline; may be “somewhat suspicious,” says Brusuelas

Overall a better than expected set of data, except for the traditional BLS jobs data manipulation

 

 

 

 


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Thu, 07/14/2011 - 08:43 | Link to Comment slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

Revisions = truth.

First estimates = false. 

Why not just release the data after its been revised?  Would cut down on alot of noise. 

Thu, 07/14/2011 - 08:50 | Link to Comment WestVillageIdiot
WestVillageIdiot's picture

How the heck are you going to drive the stock market up with short squeezes if you put out only truth and facts?  That wouldn't do at all. 

Everything looks green again today.  Bernanke just had to hint that he had a bazooka in his pants.  Paulson is jealous. 

Thu, 07/14/2011 - 09:30 | Link to Comment fuu
fuu's picture
99 weeks ago today was  08/20/2009
Thu, 07/14/2011 - 08:45 | Link to Comment BeerWhisperer
BeerWhisperer's picture

So you are saying the economy is not going to collapse?.... this week anyway.

Thu, 07/14/2011 - 08:47 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Economy already collapsed.

Thu, 07/14/2011 - 08:48 | Link to Comment firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

This is getting interesting.

Thu, 07/14/2011 - 08:50 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

'Driver likely lack of auto plant shut downs'...what auto plants?

Anyway, wheres the dire need for QE3? Wheres the 'UH OH' market collapse? Just not seeing it. All I see is Central Bankster junkies getting the DT's huddled in the corner of the mens washroom.

Thu, 07/14/2011 - 08:52 | Link to Comment WestVillageIdiot
WestVillageIdiot's picture

I think it is all those expensive yoga outfits that Lululemon has flying out the door.  They are really driving the economy. 

Thu, 07/14/2011 - 08:57 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Bernanke wants his QE to hand to his central bankster crack junkies, but cant cause the fear and panic because if his empty casino was suddenly flooded with sell orders it would blow apart the whole illusion...what are you going to do now Bernank?

Ron Paul did make Bernank look like an IDIOT yesterday with the 'If gold is not money as you say then why are banks and countries hoarding it'?

Thu, 07/14/2011 - 08:58 | Link to Comment WestVillageIdiot
WestVillageIdiot's picture

Bernanke made Bernanke look like an idiot. 

Thu, 07/14/2011 - 08:55 | Link to Comment slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

+1 SD-1

As long as the market continues to bullishly price in QE3, there will be no QE3.

Thu, 07/14/2011 - 08:57 | Link to Comment the not so migh...
the not so mighty maximiza's picture

Right on Dog.  Bob Chapmans opinion is QE3 started seemlessly in stealth mode when QE2 ended.  I would think there would be someway to proove it though unless it is a very good stealth. 

Thu, 07/14/2011 - 09:13 | Link to Comment sabra1
sabra1's picture

all stealth QE's leave an ion trail!

Thu, 07/14/2011 - 09:17 | Link to Comment MsCreant
MsCreant's picture

Poor baby Bama, want's his momma! What an avatar!

Thu, 07/14/2011 - 08:54 | Link to Comment rsnoble
rsnoble's picture

Amazing it's always good news of people dropping off benefit roles when you know damn well they aren't getting jobs.

Thu, 07/14/2011 - 08:58 | Link to Comment Version 7
Thu, 07/14/2011 - 09:05 | Link to Comment lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

A question... is it a good time to buy a new car or should I wait till Bernanke does QE3 or if the economy just drop dead I would be able to bring down the bargain price of the car?

Thu, 07/14/2011 - 09:13 | Link to Comment snowball777
snowball777's picture

If you're interested in getting financed, you might want to buy before the Ice-Nine sets in.

 

Thu, 07/14/2011 - 09:19 | Link to Comment lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

The Ice-Nine?

Thu, 07/14/2011 - 09:12 | Link to Comment sabra1
sabra1's picture

good thing the holiday last week didn't affect the job numbers, as inflation didn't affect sales. hope all those college graduates don't all look for jobs all at the same time come september!

Thu, 07/14/2011 - 09:12 | Link to Comment djsmps
djsmps's picture

CNBS changed their headline on jobs to:

Weekly Claims Finally Show Decline in Weak Jobs Market
Thu, 07/14/2011 - 09:28 | Link to Comment John Law Lives
John Law Lives's picture

Have a look at this article from 2008:

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-first-time-unemployment-claims-at-lo...

excerpt:

<<<   Economists say initial claims ranging from about 300,000 to 325,000 are consistent with a healthy rate of U.S. employment growth. But readings consistently higher than 350,000 would signal significant weakening in the labor market.  >>>

Today, AP is reporting that 375,000 weekly jobless claims signal a healthy labor market.

The GOALPOSTS have been moved!

Thu, 07/14/2011 - 09:47 | Link to Comment oogs66
oogs66's picture

and if anything, the goalpost should be moving the other way...fewer workers, more part time workers, more consultants, fewer people who qualify for benefits if they are laid off...insane

Thu, 07/14/2011 - 09:42 | Link to Comment oogs66
oogs66's picture

are claims just a joke now?  how can it be always wrong?

Thu, 07/14/2011 - 09:49 | Link to Comment kito
kito's picture

floating on the waves of stagnation.............stocks still holding, inflation not raging, dont expect qe3 this year. wont happen.

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