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Summary Of Global Events In The Week Ahead
Summer is over, and now the real scramble for performance begins with just 3 weeks left in the quarter. Here is a look at the key economic events in the upcoming week, from around the world.
From Thomas Stolper and Mark Tan at Goldman Sachs
Week Ahead
Summer comes to a close and markets swing back into full gear again following the Labour day weekend in the US. The political temperature in Europe, latest round of Eurozone IP data and China data at the end of the week will be in focus. We also get a few interesting central bank meetings from around the world.
Post summer blues in the Eurozone? We’ll be watching closely for signs of rising political tension in the Eurozone, with the upcoming few weeks critical in gauging the political risks surrounding the pending implementation of key reforms in a number of Eurozone countries. The first milestone will be the September 7th general strikes planned in France in response to a parliamentary debate about the much needed increase of the retirement age. The potential for negative headlines and rising political uncertainty is one of the reasons why we have been cautious not to sound the all clear for the Euro just yet. Outside of this, we think fundamentals (relative cyclical growth outlook, structural impediments in the US and the BBoP picture etc) still point to considerable support for EUR/$ strength, as reflected in our 6 and 12 months forecasts of 1.35 and 1.38 respectively. We’ll also get the latest on the cyclical momentum in the Eurozone with the first batch of hard data for Q3 in the form of IP data. We expect the industrial recovery to have continued across the Eurozone, but the moderation in momentum we have seen in the surveys will likely also translate into slightly softer IP growth going forward.
Central bank meetings Australia, Canada, Korea, South Africa, Peru, Japan and the UK all hold central bank meetings this week. Our Australia economists are looking for a possible hawkish shift in tone for the RBA this week, reflecting the stronger activity recently. We are still expecting 100bps of hikes over the next year (with 25bps to come in November, although we are not ruling out October). This is considerably more hawkish than market pricing and is the rationale behind our recently initiated trade recommendation to pay AUD rates via 5Y swaps. In Canada, we are expecting a 25bps hike, in-line with consensus. We will be focused on the accompanying statement, which could be dovish given the recent downside risks for the US outlook. In Japan, we are not expecting any major surprises from the BoJ after having just announced their additional easing measures last week.
China data We’ll get trade data and possibly money and credit data starting on Friday. For trade, we expect August exports growth to fall by around 2% and imports growth to remain largely unchanged on a yoy basis (the implied mom annualized growth rates are -10% for both exports and imports). Meanwhile, the trade surplus is likely to remain high. Money and credit growth should likely show a modest rebound in both yoy and mom terms in August. The slew of monthly Chinese activity data also comes the following week, which will allow our China economists a clearer read on the risks to their current 2010 GDP forecasts.
Monday 6th
US bank holiday
Tuesday 7th
BoJ meeting We do not expect any major announcements here given the additional easing measures announced last week.
RBA meeting In view of the strength of the recent domestic data on GDP and retail sales, we expect the RBA to shift its rhetoric to a more hawkish tone at some stage over the next few weeks. Our central view is that a November rate hike is most likely the next step in the tightening cycle, but an earlier move in October cannot be ruled out.
German manufacturing orders (Jul) We expect a decline of -0.5%mom after a +3.2% rise last month.
General Strike in France Given the latest announcements from trade unions, large parts of public services, including public transport are at risk of being shut down for 24 hours, while the French parliament starts debating the planned pension reforms.
Wednesday 8th
Japan machinery orders (Jul) Recovery is very slow for machinery orders (private-sector orders excluding shipping and electric power), which are a leading indicator for capex. We only forecast a flat mom path in July after a 1.6% rise in June.
German and Spain IP (Jul) We expect IP to have grown by +0.5%mom in the former, and 0.3%mom in the latter.
Bank of Canada meeting We continue to forecast a 25bp hike (in-line with consensus), although our conviction level is not especially high given the recent deterioration in the growth news (particularly in the US).
Fed beige book This survey of regional economic conditions will provide a cross-check on recent economic indicators, which have begun to surprise to the upside relative to downgraded forecasts.
Our September FX Monthly publication is scheduled for release
Thursday 9th
Korea central bank meeting Our forecast is for at most another 25-bp hike in 2010, in either September or October. Our baseline scenario remains a 25-bp hike in October but we do not rule out a September hike, given the hawkish comments from Bank of Korea officials.
Bank of England meeting No change to rates expected.
South Africa central bank meeting We expect a 50bps cut in rates to 6%, in-line with consensus.
US trade balance (Jul) The deficit in June (-$49.9bn) was much deeper than the second-quarter average. Our estimate for July is for only a slight narrowing to -$48bn, suggesting downside risk to the trade contribution to third-quarter GDP growth.
US initial claims Consensus expects stabilization at +470k following the fall to +472k last week.
Peru central bank meeting We expect a 50bps hike to 3%, in-line with consensus
Friday 10th
Australia employment report (Aug) This month's jobs survey will be distorted by hirings associated with the holding of the Federal Election in the month. Though it is hard to be precise, prior elections have also resulted in a noticeable lift in participation, which we suspect will prevent a big fall in the unemployment rate. We are expecting +55k of jobs added vs consensus of +25k. We expect the unemployment rate to stay at 5.3% vs consensus of 5.2%.
China Money and credit (Aug) (Sep 10-15) We expect money and credit growth to show a modest rebound in both yoy and mom terms in August.
China Trade (Aug) We expect August exports growth to fall by around 2% and imports growth to remain largely unchanged on a yoy basis ( which would imply sequential mom growth rates of -10% annualized for both exports and imports ). Meanwhile, the trade surplus is likely to remain high.
France and Italy IP (Jul) We expect +0.6%mom in France and +0.4% in Italy.
Canada employment report (Aug) Consensus is expecting a +17.8k increase in jobs from -9.3k previously. Unemployment rate expected unchanged at 8%.
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Virtually every hedge fund is going to be running pell mell into the absolute worst stocks with the highest short interest in order to "make their year".
I expect we could see some gargantuan moves in:
Office Depot, Staples, Office Max, etc.
Ann Taylor, Chico's, Bebe, etc.
Furniture Brands, Lumber Liquidators, etc.
Any and all mortgage insurers, mortgage finance companies, etc.
No different that a college kid being in a bar after striking out repeatedly, so he start gunning for the fattest, ugliest chicks remaining.
Fully speed ahead. Interested to see what happens as the SPX butts up against the 100 and 200 dma. RSI and Stochastic indicators saying the markets already overheating.
I want to see some fireworks. Like real fireworks. I also want to see price inflation so that the common man/woman can wake the heck up.
Every holiday should be celebrated with fireworks. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IKo3_zmOCy0
Say RT, you don't look all that fat or very ugly either.
Robot, one question...why is it only up? (at least that's my interpretation of your posts/bias) Those same hedge funds could be slamming any and all of those stocks in the other direction, right?
I do hope you were not referring to her as a fat ugly chick.
Hey Robo check out
Kronos Worldwide, Inc. (KRO)This baby pop's 12% no problem ...
I'd hit that sober...
Well, that's not the left overs I assume?
The Kabul bank run crisis is not "contained" and could get ugly. A black swan circling over Kabul?
Property of Afghan bank bosses frozen, but not Karzai's brother's
"Struggling to contain asset-stripping at Afghanistan's biggest bank, Afghan authorities have barred the sale of Kabul properties held by the troubled bank's principal owners. But the freeze excludes President Hamid Karzai's brother, who is the third largest Kabul Bank shareholder....
"The move to block asset sales comes as Afghan authorities are struggling to hold Kabul Bank together against waves of depositors demanding their money back. Amid reports that bank funds have been stolen in several cities, authorities want to try to stop bank insiders from selling assets purchased with loans that haven't been paid back.
"The crisis at Kabul Bank, which still has over a million customers and handles salary payments for soldiers, police and teachers, flows from a tangle of murky loans by shareholders to themselves and from risky investments in Dubai real estate. With so many people's savings, salaries and political fortunes at stake, what began as a financial mess has morphed into a serious challenge to the credibility of President Karzai and also of his American backers.
"Washington has ruled out using any American money for a bail-out, despite fears that the collapse of Kabul Bank could leave soldiers unpaid and set back the fight against the Taliban, a struggle in which the United States has already lost more than 1,100 troops and has spent billions of dollars. During their own years in power in Kabul from 1996 to 2001, the Taliban banned private banks."
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/09/05/AR201009...
I don't know why I'm fascinated with the "Kabul Bank Run" but we shall see if this is the start of something "impactive." Obviously I'm only interested in the British Bank HSBC because I feel governments all over the world are attacking "the banking system" and the treasure trove of information that they maintain and to me although I can't explain why this bank represents the last non-freedom hating institution of any significance. I can't speak for other nations but even from my lonely preaching perch I feel the USA's current regime is "unpracticed at totalitarianism." Having worked for those who are expert at it my personal view is "beware the knock on the door."
Chart: HG
Copper futures soon to fall out of another rising wedge? Bears are happiest in September.
http://www.screencast.com/t/NWE4M2ZkMz
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Its Imelda Marcos' ghost again. I just saw this bitch on another post. Snap, snap, be gone bitch...
The Afghan rip-off is what I wanted to post.... how much is this costing us daily ? Anyone ?