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Summary Of Same-Store Sales Data
Retailers are pushing higher on the tried and true platform of ongoing declines in absolute performance and declining same-store sales, yet on the face of yet another round of beating analysts' low expectations, who will likely use today's data to unleash a torrent of upgrades based on optimistic expectations. The question of who is actually doing the buying, as consumers are once again saving more instead of spending, with yesterday's disclosed drop in consumer lending by a greater than expected $12 billion in August, is irrelevant. Also, keep in mind September 2008 is when the shit hit the fan, and the second half of September was a writeoff for most retailers.
Detail by retailer provided below:
Costco: SSS up 1% compared to expectations of -0.7%. September sales up 2.7% to $6.85 billion compared to $6.67 billion in September 2008
Gap: SSS -1.0% compared to expectations of -0.4%. September sales down 0.7% to $1.33 billion compared with $1.34 billion in September 2008. Gap Sales were down 8%, Banana Republic sales were down 12%, Old Navy sales were up 13%, and International sales were down 4%.
J.C. Penney's: SSS -1.4% compared to expectations of -3.5%. September sales were down 0.6% to $1.44 billion compared to $1.45 billion in September 2008. Jewelry continued to experience weak sales.
Kohl's: SSS up 5.5% compared to expectations of up 0.1%. September sales were up 9.6% to $1.46 billion compared to $1.34 billion in September 2008.
Limited's: SSS up 1.0% compared to expectations of -2.4%. September sales were down 2.8% to $0.65 billion compared to $0.67 billion in September 2008. Victoria's Secret sales were down 1%.
Nordstrom's: SSS -2.4% compared to expectations of down 6.0%. September sales were up 0.3% to $0.72 billion compared to $0.72 billion in September 2008.
Target’s: SSS -1.7% compared to expectations of down 2.0%. Total sales for September 2009 were up 1.4% to $5.39 billion compared with $5.32 billion in September 2008.
TJX's: SSS up 7.0% compared to expectations of up 4.1%. Total sales for September 2009 were up 9.3% to $2.00 billion compared to $1.83 billion in September 2008.
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Going forward, SSS should drastically disappoint. Unemployement, Gas prices, no credit growth and higher savings rates. Am short AMZN and BBBY.
They have incredibly easy Q4 comps.
Agreed, short the f**k out of AMZN and all the Chistmas stocks except for maybe Harry & David. There may be a few people left that can afford to give english muffins as a gift this year.
Do you REALLY think that something like a bad holiday sales season is going to put a crimp in this rally? Really?
You sir are correct! It will take a nuclear war to stop this insanity. Maybe not even then.
Where should I send your muffins?
You can send the muffins to 85 Broad c/o A Pimp Named Slickback :-)
That's what I say... you have unemployment still going up and credit going down, so where's consumer getting the money? Obviously with yesterday's report, people are not using their 30% interest credit card and without pay check... WTF?! And even with paycheck, is obvious people are paying down debt... so where's retailer getting the extra boost they need?!
Total sales are up slightly versus last year September but remember last year September was when the Lehman event happened. I'd have to look at 2007 sales also to see the effect of Lehman in September 2008.
Can you update with 2007 numbers also (or a pointer to same method calculations)
Why do all this fogging use of percentage changes in data everywhere and not actually compare plain number to plain number ...
but that would mean they couldn't hide behind a smokescreen any longer eh!
People need to look around their house. Is there anything that you don't have that you can't do without, I didn't think so.It's gotten to the point that I,m not inclined to spend money for anything anymore apart from day to day stuff.
So were does this leave the consumer leading the recovery, I don't need the latest trinkets and gizmos I'm even pissed watching commercials for them, just fucking leave me alone and let me get over my consumption hangover.
My favourite "retailer" short right now is WSM (I know it's a different sector Home furnishings or whatever) Check out the multiples and the chart, can't hold much of a bid today or yesterday...
I am short WSM.
I agree with the anonymous poster #93130.
I've cut out all buying of stuff I don't need. If I have to replace something I will. If its serviceable, I'll use it until it craps out.
I just had to replace my computer. The old one finally died. It had Windows Millenium on it. It ran just fine, until it didn't.
"It had Windows Millenium on it. It ran just fine, until it didn't."
Wait, it had ME on it....... and "ran just fine"........I think my head is going to explode.
One of my roomies had a comp with ME on it, and he had to reboot it every 3 hours if he was typing a paper, or he lost the entire paper.
ME was '98 with different graphics.
With all of the stores closing over the last year or so, it stands to reason that much of the business would go to anyone left standing. I would like to see "total sales" across the board.
Also, remember that mid-August last year was when the dollar started to strengthen. The dollar was generally weaker this Sept. when compared to Sept. '08. Check out the DXY chart.
I don't know if these numbers will get any weaker if DXY continues to get kicked around at these levels. The dollar generally continued to strengthen from Sept. '08 to March '09.
Where I am people still have money, and they will spend the same as last year, maybe more. The near term isn't so bad as the long term outlook imo.
This will be the first Christmas in my family where we only shop for the kids. Some want to exchange one present, but the focus is to clearly reduce the shopping to help those family members that are struggling more. Plus, were looking at Craigslist and other locations where items can be bought without tax. Many of us will shop less out of spite for the increase in taxes.
these numbers are not all that bad - certainly not apocalyptic and this is for a reason....unemployment among higher income earners is relatively low...they own most of the purchasing power....thus you would have to wait until their unemployment numbers double before seeing material impacts at the cash registers of these types of retailers......
fwiw - i don't care about the comparisons between expectations vs actuals although it is good data to store them somewhere - and no, i don't mean up my ass.....
I wonder how much of this are the mom and pops going out of business and the big guys picking up share?
1. Easier comps
2. Survivor Bias
Adding it all up comes to a .44 billion gain. A gain is a gain.
Commercial real estate is in free fall. Businesses that might have thrived in a strip mall in a better economy are going out of business . All the shoppers that used to go to the "mom and pop" strip-mall store are now being driven to the lowest common denominator: the '"big box". Maybe this explains same store sales increases at the largest retailers. There's nowhere else to go
JC Penney may finally live up to its name
I'm with you Anonymous.
Reminds me of college parties when it's getting late and you're now drinking the cheap beer all the while reminding yourself that if you get into her pants you'll go home tomorrow and be responsible and the party is really not getting any better at this hour and damn this beer really tastes lousy.
Glad to see the switch to savings over borrowing...long in coming. Oversupply-fueled-consumption-fueled-oversupply decades in the making. Ironic that Mad Men is the rage.
Wants-become-needs and the bar goes higher.
How long will we be sober?
This is what is going on behind the scenes:
Shopping center vacancy rate hits 17-year high
effective rents fall by 0.8%
vacancy rates rise by 0.3%
U.S. office market vacancy rate at five-year high
effective rents fall by 2.2%
vacancy rates rise by 0.6%
Apartment vacancy rate hits 23-year high
rental rates fall by 0.5%
vacancy rate rise to 7.8%
The prices are falling but not by enough to stem decline.
Those that are left are able to pass the savings on to you!
You spend less and get more and revenues and profits rise!
It's lose/win/win.
Sounds like a solid investment thesis to me! This is an example of the crap going around every day now:
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Of course sales up, you aren't required to pay for the house you live in here in Florida so you might as well go to the Mall. Pay an Attorney $1k to write a letter, you just became a squatter for 3 years and cut your expenses back to utilities and cable. You don't need no stinking credit cards, it's free money. Makes life so less stressful.
"People need to look around their house. Is there anything that you don't have that you can't do without, I didn't think so.It's gotten to the point that I,m not inclined to spend money for anything anymore apart from day to day stuff."
I just don't get this. "Can't do without"? Why is that the standard? You have one life. If you can get stuff that's better and will give you more pleasure -- a nicer television picture, a better tee shot, snazzier shoes, more enjoyable wine -- and you can afford it, then you should buy it. That's especially true if you believe all the apocalyptic messages on this site -- what are you saving for, if all of your dollars are going to be worthless five years from now?
Naked Capitalism had a very thought-provoking post stating that in reality, the consumer is NOT deleveraging as expected.
http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2009/10/is-the-consumer-really-deleveragi...
Marshals (TJX) had some awsome CHINESE shoes on sale ... I purchased 4 pair. ... I suspect that this was at least 1% of that 7% gain. ... Then again, I won't be in the shoe business for about six years ... Oh well!
Yeah. I had friends who were after me for years to replace the computer with Windows Milleneum. But I never had the problems with my computer that they did with theirs - the constant rebooting, the freezing, etc. If I had to go through that crap, I would have replaced it years ago. I don't have a lot of patience with things that don't work. I don't have a lot of patience with things that do work. I don't have a lot of patience, period.
This past week, I turned it on, and just got the blue screen of death. I replaced it immediately.
I didn't cry for it. I had files on back up. I moved on. ;)
I have a pentium 3 computer that needed a power supply that due to "advances" was not available so i waited with the dead unit in a box recently i had given to me a P2 unit that has a good power supply and a dead motherboard so i am resurrecting the dead one i have cost $0.00 and am reloading it with win 98 and all the updates that i had saved over the years I will get a usable computer for no cost
I don't think win 98 is very secure anymore. A move to Linux would be the logical choice for your computer hardware.