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The Sunday Night FRBNY Special Is Back: Gold Surging, Dollar Plunging With A Healthy Smattering Of Futures Rampage
Remember that dollar renaissance from late December? Wave goodbye. More rumors of a stimulus spigot, of QE, of China taking over the world, and other somesuch. DXY is about to test 77 support. After that we have freefall.
And a plunge in the dollar means just one thing...
Yup, gold is surging. And just as it was about to test the lower bound of its channel support.
And in case you thought the 33 Liberty was not going to take advantage of this beautiful futures buying opportunity, think again.
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news equals fear and greed
markets like to appease
ZH participants are a good bunch of knowledgeable types. I am pleased to be here among you.
Gold is a frequent topic here, and bravo for that. I think FOFOA has it right, that gold is about "to leap over the fence" from being a commodity that is bought with currency or wealth, and to become the best form of wealth (protection). FOFOA's case is fairly complex and novel, I am still trying to get everything he has to say.
fofoa.blogspot.com
How can the FED trading desk control a trillion dollar market for such little money.. Is it that no one wants to sell. Everyone has been told not to sell.. Are they paying off major banks simply to rotate the buying like a ponzi scheme so that GS buys from JPM who buys from the FED who buys fromGS who buys from JPM so they all just keep exchanging money at higher prices.. And where is there proof???because we all want to know..
Gold is not in a bubble. Dollar printing is the bubble.
Is GLD certificate printing in a bubble?
probably what is holding gold down.
You saw it last year. All the setting up of gold ETF's. I KNEW it was going to lead to a paper gold sell off that would mean nothing a month after it happened. That 78 Billion dollar paper gold selloff that started the last down cycle showed spikes in coin and bullion premiums. Why those fake paper receipts are allowed to affect the real market is the question. As well as why central banks simply moving tons of it between each other in round robin fashion is allowed to affect it as well.
Do you really trust that these ETFs have the gold they claim and are not leasing it out or creating/forming/leveraging some other paper gold on top of their paper gold? As an example, GLD can hold NOT GOOD bars for proper delivery to the market and they do not insure their gold holding. Add to that, there are many other serious situations one should consider before choosing GLD or other ETFs.
Read GLD's 10-k filing at www.spdrgoldshares.com/media/GLD/file/10k_Sept08.pdf and pay special attention to pages 54 to 62.
Bottom line, if you want to invest in gold i would do as GLD's largest shareholder did months ago.... they sold their GLD holdings are purchased physical metal and took delivery. In this day and age counterparty risk is to be avoided imho.
get ready paper bugs, you're about to get reamed on your FRN holdings.
They can smell blood in the water. They only feed at night now.
Unemployment up, gold up, dollar down. Sounds like the inflationary depression Peter Schiff was warning about. Too bad his shareholders have nothing to celebrate.
Spoken like someone who has no clue, and I do know.
Yeah because Peter Schiff is never right about anything....
gold to the moon
dxy to the toilet
spx to 1200
Considering our current depression, at what price does gasoline become highly (almost hyper-) inflationary? It won't take much and very long this time to push us over into the abyss - do we even make it to summer before all hell breaks lose and we get locked into a deep long freeze?
That gas prices are rising in the dead of winter gives you the answer to that question.
I've been hearing chatter of gas to $3/usgal by summer, budgeting for it now. Lovely.
In my midwestern state we were at $2.80 for regular just a couple days ago. $3.00 by summer seems optimistic.
I paid $3.29 for 87 octane today just outside L.A. Gone up a LOT in the last 2 weeks.
It will take about 16 dollars per gallon (12 gallons) of gas to make us stop driving to work each week. That means half of our net pay will be sunk into the gasoline and we will make plans to work within walking distance... or not at all.
Otherwise, we dont give a damn about the rising gas prices... Only worry about the crime that must surely circle gas stations for those with money to actually pick up a pump.
Gas prices will wipe out the remaining economy once they hit $4.50-5/gallon. No, there isn't a recovery right now, but there is some suspended disbelief due to money printing and general social inertia. High gas prices would eliminate that, and the bigger downleg would be like falling off a cliff during a microburst.
$4-5 gas was one of the cataylst that helped push the debt situation over the edge. At that price people start worrying about paying for gas to get to work than they are about their mortgage.
The US would simply shutdown long before $16/gallon gas.
glad I can walk to my job if necessary (just under 4 miles), getting new tubes for the 25 year old TREK 950 tomorrow, new backpacking boots may be a choice investment of the last year...lol
Same boat as you Tom, I moved last year so that I'm now just under 2 miles away from work, and bought the Trek Police Bike. Very happy with the investment, just waiting for this damn Western NY winter to end so I can start using it again.
It is 3.03 in seattle. It went up a dime over night.
3.40 in ny. you folks have nothing to complain about..
2.92 in upstate NY
Its already at $3.00 and rising in western CO
Chumly -We'll know that gasoline prices have become too high when we no longer see cars lined up for $15 car washes or $20 beauty treatments.
I read on MarketWatch that Hong Kong is the place to list because of bubble prices. Maybe Bernanke could put the MBS the Fed has into a REIT and offer it in Hong Kong.
Mutual Fund Monday. Nothing to see here, move along...
Looks like it's time for a Saturday Night Special, bang bang
After 17 months I can finally break even on my CAD-USD trade, the million dollar question is , should I stay or should I go now.......
You know, this gold bubble's gonna pop. Why, back in '01 I said to myself that this ol' bubble she's a gonna blow. Yep. Ten years ago or theresabout I predicted it. Yessir I was way ahead of my time. I saw this thing comin' to a head when it hit 300 an ounce.
I smell another round of stimulus spending.
Venezuela is doing a 50% devaluation...that might account for the gold spike.
Every time a currency gets devalued an angel gets a golden wing :>
They love to use the 'last hour Friday/first hour Monday' combo to forklift the SPY 1-2%...buy it at about 3:00 pm Friday, you'll be 2% in the money by lunch every Monday.
I was looking at the gold price earlier and wondered how long it would be before this got posted.Dollar in free fall?I hope not, but the pressure for it to happen increases exponentially with each passing day.EPIC currency FAIL.
Chumba should be all over this soon......
Yeah, I expect the Chumba to have something pithy to say at any moment.
While waiting on that, please do consider loading up on more physical PMs if you do not have 5% of your un-encumbered assets in gold, etc. It's good insurance in case our pals at .gov or the Fed screw us.
Even so, I would keep at least $10k or so in FRNs around the house hidden somewhere, that would help in any deflation or riots scenarios.
"I am NOT Chumbawumba (sic)"
GOLD BIOTECHS!!
A gallon of gas costs $8 in Europe since a good decade or so. No hyperinflation there.
Yes. But you can criss cross Europe with only 2-3 tanks of gas. Not here.
2-3 tanks of gas on a Boeing 747 maybe, yes. And I thought the "Americans can't find Europe on a map" was only an urban myth.
And I'd be willing to bet that taxes account for at least half of the roughly $5 difference between there and here. If not more (I could easily believe more, in fact).
I wonder if the futures actions before and after the jobs announcement on Friday points to some form of manipulation. The DAX was down about 1.1% but ES was down about half of that. Could that be because someone was propping it up?
11." Most of the usd bulls are on leverage supplied to them by the banksters. Calling the current situation a USD bull fish in the barrel shotgun party with the banksters holding the guns, is an understatement. Yet there all the morons are, throwing their gold away in a literal race to the gold garbage can. To repeat, because we only learn by repetition: My message to the Gman cheerleaders known as USD bulls: Good Luck to ya in your battle against the banksters and the Asian central banksters. You won't just lose. Your final resting place will be the bread line. Where your only investment choice is going to be white or brown bread crusts. Maybe your online forex dealer will leverage that for ya. You've made your bed of used bankster USD toilet paper. Now the banksters are going to make you lie in it. You've been told."
www.gracelandupdates.com
I shit you not... an excerpt from an article that Kitco has a link to as "news": "The first reason you should considering selling your gold is that you are getting rid of unwanted clutter! Often times people have old gold jewelry just laying around the house collecting dust. Why not sell your gold and turn it into cash? Not only are you making additional room in your home you are getting paid to do it! This especially important if you are just considering throwing it away"
It's called shear the sheep.
First, convince them to trade their gold/silver jewelry for FRN$,
Then, devalue the FRN to pay foreign creditors.
I finally had to clean my house. There were gold necklaces, gold ingots, and gold coins everywhere. The gold dust was all over, in the ducts, in the drapes. What a mess. What clutter. Unfortunately, I threw it away befpre I had the chance to read Kitco's advice
this lady at work told me 6 months ago she sold her gold jewelry at the mall for cash. sadly, she is one of our busines managers!!! I literally almost laughed, i was like are you shitting me, you fell for that crap? People are just so stupid.
you mean because she sold so low and so early
i must presume....in that case she surely was
foolish...
Poeple still believe that somehow magicly over
time they will avg 8 percent return on there 401k's,
of course that has yet to happen for anyone and your
lucky if your breaking even, but I know multiple poeple
who arn'nt even getting a match puting money into
the 401k pozi...
They'll do even better than that if there is a forced conversion of 401ks into Treasuries.
We have closed green 32 out of the last 47 trading days. Out of the 15056 times this could have happened since 1950, it has happened a grand total of 156 times, making this a 99th percentile event.
So I guess the question is, what the fuck is so great about the economy to justify bidding up stocks with a ferocity that only occurs about 30 times per decade and how did it become known on November 2nd? There's been pretty much nothing but bad news since then.
Very good comment. Did you catch the news that the treasury wants to divert money supplied by 401Ks away from stocks and into treasuries. That may be the day the music dies. Until we get panic in the market just sit back and watch the pace of the gain over time. Gains are occuring so quickly that when it does correct it will be a brutal selloff. But as you say, nothing has happened economically to drive the market higher. ESPECIALLY, last week when we were up on poor pending home sales, poor consumer credit, and poor unemployment and job losses. This whole move from March is like the move you see in tech stocks afterhours as soon as a headline prints; a big jump up when the news is really bad. It always corrects and goes lower.
I did see the news about 401Ks. The funny thing is that if the market keeps going up, people are going to fight it tooth and nail. If there was "blood in the streets", people would be clamoring for some sort of guaranteed return. So many cross-currents. It is true that Americans are generally under-allocated to the annuity asset class, but that doesn't mean that they should be forced into an income product like Treasuries.
Gains are occuring so quickly that when it does correct it will be a brutal selloff
There is a ton of volume resistance above us, but an air pocket of almost no volume below us until 900. There's no horizontal support on the chart, it's all rising trendline support.
Then again, the market is so disconnected from reality that it could go to 2000 S&P and it would make only slightly less sense than it does at 1150.
I notice Hang Seng opened gap up big.
First thought: this (SPX/dollar/gold action) is just correlation desks working.
Second thought: 33 Liberty starts early in the HSI futures market?
The best way to predict the future is to create it.
We will see Silver $26 , and Gold $1750 by years end, if not much much sooner.
yes, and this makes sense, since we are in so much better shape now than ever before since 1950!!! Either there is rampant manipulation OR as armstrong basically is saying, niether funamentals or technicals matter anymore, is is strictly all about currencies now, and people will move into all tangible goods, which includes atocks and commodities, but not real estate, as thatis not liquid enough.
Trooo,
I don't think fundamentals have really mattered in 20 years, gossip has always taken priority.
I think the markets are all orchestrated now as well, so the fools in charge think they can control the correction for a soft landing. I doubt it, there are only so many times a day you can have a fat-thumb re-set.
This is going to make all those dollar bulls and gold shorts just puke tomorrow. I have traded the Asian market for a long time. it is rare that big moves like this happen in this time zone. It looks like a few folks with money in their pockets decided to make a bet this weekend and executed it tonight in Tokyo.
These bets were coming out of Europe and the US. Look for more action as the day progresses. Bye Bye low Vol.....
Too damned bad about any gold shorts getting hosed!
By the way, I like a lot of your pieces Bruce, I LOL-ed your piece about the Greenwich party you attended in December.
"2010 is going to be a rough year, I'm going to need a lot to drink." <-- copyright DoChenRollingBearing
WSJ reports on Saturday in Money & Investing that 5 TBTF banks are "pleading" with hedge funds to borrow more from them !!! what a great country !!!
Also in same WSJ section, Vanguard reports 401k investors (sheeple) are staying put with their investments and are comfortable with their retirement prospects & projections. what a great country !!
gold held near India's purchases and is bouncing. The dollar hasnt made a new low vs. Euro since the summer of 2008. too many gold bulls and dollar bears but canr fight the tape
its the hedgies Bruce. Their cannons are loaded with fresh fodder from our TBTF banks..haha
What weighs more, 33 Liberty's Trading Desk vs. Empty Chinese cities?
I'm so sicxk and god damned tired of this joke of a market. 500 or so points on the S&P and we are still debating about whether or not the recession ended. Meanwhile Cali, Japan, Greece etc etc are in huge trouble.. and the msm is singing, "don't worry be happy".
I can't wait for this thing to blow.. I know it will hurt - but at least the pain will make sense... this 'nothing but up' market is frying my brain as I try to look at it from a logical perspective.
17 years in the business and I'm starting to HATE going into work.
fah-q
I can't wait for this thing to blow.. I know it will hurt - but at least the pain will make sense... this 'nothing but up' market is frying my brain as I try to look at it from a logical perspective.
I agree with you. What makes the current situation unbearable is knowing that it is unsustainable and that the higher the market goes, the worse the ultimate outcome. The market going up should make people feel good, but I think all it's doing is increasing the sense of dread on Main Street because they know that it's all going to end with them on the hook for even more money to bail out Wall Street.
My little piece of anecdotal evidence is that Main Street is REALLY HURTING. Only 1 of the 11 of small businesses I have talked with recently (OK, concentrated in the SE USA and Florida) are seeing any green shoots.
Borrow anything? Employ anyone?
No, forget it. Everyone is just hanging on...
I was sitting at my laptop over Christmas, thinking why am I addicted to this? I can't control the Fed, Timbo, Barry O, Lloyd or Jamie (I worry about him hiding in the background), I am not even in the financial sector per-se, I am in construction.
Yet I read as much as I can, addicted.
After weeks of denial, it finally came to me. Basically I'm braced and ready to deal with whatever hits the fan, in fact I welcome it. The decline and fall of the western business model is long overdue. I am game to help re-build.
But someone is manipulating the markets, putting off the day of reckoning.................
..... and making it worse.
MSM? What are you doing, can't you see what you are supposed to be doing to shine a light on all this festering putridity?
http://www.commodityonline.com/futures-trading/technical/Gold-goes-on-th...
check out the yield curve. 2/10 almost 300 bps. weak employment, fed on hold, weak president, more stimulus, health care reform etc. Fed does not appreciate the importance of the dollar as a reserve currency and thinks that countries that tie their currency to the dollar should revalue to avoid importing loose dollar policy. It is a dangerous game that will only lead to further trade tensions. Gold price reflects lack of confidence in FED and is probably reacting to Bernanke's ridiculous defense of monetary policy during the Greenspan years.
How come nobody remembers that China had been buying gold for 4 years before it DECIDED to let US know. The fundamentals aren't as out of wack as one would assume. Its my guess that China is taking advantage of the dip, buying up whatever it can under corporations not listed as govt entities to avoid leaving a detectable smell...
But who knows man....
Just wondering as I looked at the (somewhat puzzling) recent stock price trend for the New York Times - has anyone looked into correlating (potential) Fed / futures buying activity (such as recently highlighted on ZH) with ties to the particular administration which held power at the time?
I guess a correlation between corporate political contributions and (futures?) buying trends would be a start. But also companies that 'carry the water' for the party in power (e.g., do left-leaning media such as NYT, WaPo, hollywood fare better under democrats and Fox et. al. under republicans?). And companies that fit ideologically with the administration (say, alternative energy, green, unionized for democrats vs. oil, military etc. for republicans).
It just seems that if they are going to 'support' the market, the temptation to reward the supporters and penalize the opposition would be very great indeed.
Or maybe its just money and connections that dominate.
Yawn.....
Hang the rothschilds and their cohorts!
When it concerns the rothschilds and their cohorts, street lamp lynchings are very becoming. The sooner the better for the world.
Horseshit move, guys. If it was real, then silver would be up too.
Gold up 1.8%, silver only up 1.7%.
That 0.1% difference PROVES the move is horseshit.
THE MATH NEVER LIES!
Too funny with the name. But wow dude, you're pretty sad. Get a life.
Retract that horseshit or I will temporary ban your azz from this forum.
Two strikes and you are banned PERMANENTLY
if gold is surging check copper or platinum/silver, they are surging more but you do not mentioning.
leave gold alone
HLN: "stocks rally as earnings season begins"
Sure.
If your long the $ I would exit or have a tight stop.
Looking at the COT Report with options as of 12/29/09 shows the
combined Non commercial and non reportable players at a record net long
position. This represents an extreme level of optimism.
The dollar has already broken support this AM so a trip down to 75 seems likely. On a hard break of $75 I would expect Benny & Timmy to hit the panic button and instruct the boys over at 33 Liberty to start BUYING
"DXY is about to test 77 support. After that we have freefall."
- freefall of what ? certainly not technically speaking. good call at the time TD last night but that easy $ already made as the DX 144 min comes into a horizontal band of support from the real bodies of 12/15 & 16.
DX put in a swing high on the 22nd and B wave stunt high on the 8th. cute wave joke after the fact though. GCG10 was a screaming buy on the 30th / 31st and a prudent sell of at least half of that swing trade position ought have occurred already this morning. if silver ain't be scorching higher here and now, will likely plot an 'are-you-kidding-me' sell signal in the next 48 hours, already did on extremely small interval periods.
It hasn't broken support yet, 76.50 - 76.75 ... Textbook technicals....Just remember the last time Tyler was calling for dxy 70
Go ahead and short the dollar here boys...I'll be laughing.
I wish this whole Ponzi Scheme bubble would just blow up already. What would make this whole thing come to an end??
FrBNY in substantial USD selling this morning to flog up that tired ES horse before market opens, looks like the European squids didn't get to work this morning, no one took over the pumping after the Asian squids left office today. Apparently their computers needed new instruction every week, wink wink those looking to outwit the squids and their computers.
If bears want to stir something up they should drive oil directly to 120.00 along with the bulltards. Perhaps average Joe will put down the Pizza Hut and awaken from their "Iron Chef" induced slumber when they are paying $5.25 a gallon while all data suggests we are in a depression. This revelation will have some repercussions and if they cannot connect the inflation dots from there what is the point?
Have you never seen the Food Challenge? They sometimes make really tall buildings out of rice krispy cereal...record-setting heights certified by Guiness Book of World Records. This does not induce slumber, but edge of your seat expectations of "all fall down."
Rack'em boys
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_pDAUH_ZZHrw/S0tAWKcEI3I/AAAAAAAABTk/CQ6t83Q5b2...
I see the problem with the FED pumping futures is that they are using a Devalued Dollar and Higher Oil, Copper, Steel, Aluminum prices to pump the Market up.
As If it wasn't bad enough that three Generations of American People have to pay higher taxes for the Bank Bail Outs. The Fed is now pushing the Dollar Down which lowers Americans spending power and increases the cost of basics like Gasoline, Heating Oil, Copper pipes, wire etc.
It is like a triple wammie for Americans. How can the FED think that is good to increase Oil prices on Americans while pumping the Market just for the Banks.
I tend to believe that there is something sinister driving the markets, although I don't know what it is. Free money is the obvious answer and the obvious answer is often the right one. A lot of people talk about PPT buying futures- I'm not so sure, at least not in a direct manner. But something just recently occurred to me: vol has been getting killed- who is selling it? What if BigBen is the seller of volatility- puts and calls- rather than a buyer of futures? Just a thought...
The very choppy USD Index daily chart is now bearish but it's weekly chart continues to give bullish warnings.
DOW/SP500 daily charts continue to show signs of being overbought.
The weekly chart is bullish/neutral: ie a moderate uptrend.
Keep in mind that trends with longer time frames have more influence over trends with smaller time frames.
The bear market rally from March 2009 will not end until the weekly chart turns down.
http://www.zerohedge.com/forum/market-outlook-0
Rack'em boys88