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Sunday Reading
- Must read: The trade war is on: China looking at US auto, chicken dumping (Bloomberg) - time for our President to bring back Smoot Hawley
- Must read: Henry Paulson's longest night: an insider's look at Hank's tenure together with much embargoed information (Vanity Fair, h/t Deadhead)
- Must read: The deal of the century (Esquire)
- Must read: A story about the imminent decline of New York in four parts, from Der Spiegel
- Cheap dollars are sowing the seeds of the next world crisis (Telegraph)
- Up to two million march to US Capitol to protest against Obama's spending in "tea party" demonstration (Daily Mail, h/t Keyser Soze)
- Wall Street's math wizards forgot a few variables (NYT)
- Debt, Inflation and Deflation (Financial Sense University)
- But who is watching regulators? (NYT, h/t Lizzie)
- "Blowback" - The coming consequences of banking fraud (Seeking Alpha)
- The chronological financial heatmap (NYT)
- Ferguson: Wall Street's new gilded age (Newsweek)
- Gold monthly historical chart of interest and some observations (Constellation 1976)
- Ambrose-Pritchard: Lehman is a footnote in the great East-West globalization crisis (Telegraph)
- Lehman had to die so global finance could live (NYT)
- From Lehman's wreckage, new lives (WSJ)
- Some more on Regency Centers: Pair trade: short REG and long REG preferred (Credit Bubble Stocks)
- Just in time for winter: Australia records Tamiflu-resistant swine flu case (ABC, h/t Novation)
»
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Wall street bankers getting huge bonuses in 2009 is like Brits in their private clubs in India congratulating themselves for "saving the empire" on the eve of getting kicked entirley out of the country.
Thank you for that relevant, reasoned and informative point...
...not.
This suit is NOT black.
You said something relevant.... eh tu doodus.
Last month it was the politically correct police, and this month it is the on topic police. And they are always anonymous. Can't you people just let others live their lives, or are you only happy when you are being a grief-er and indulging your megalomaniacal fantasies?
I'm waiting for spelling nazi. I like a good spelling nazi.
Hey Hephasteus..
Put your hands up... this is a citizen's arrest by the Grammar Nazi...
nazi has a CAPITAL "N"...
I'll give you a warning this time, but don't let it happen again :-)
(The Soup Nazi would be so proud)
NO SOUP FOR YOU! lmao....
Defender, it is ironic for those of us that have been here since day one to have 'johnny and/or jane come lately' tell us what this place is all about.
There are no extra points for those of us that have been here the longest... nor are our thoughts and ideas any more interesting or credible...
Clueless Liberals that vote for Obama have no credibility.
They are the largest part of the problem.
Funny how I see a lot of people who voted for Obama on this site... but no longer agree with his approach... I think they are part of the solution :-)
Sounds a bit like the drunk who is sorry for causing that car wreck. I suppose better late than never.
As far as how long somebody has been at this site, it surely makes a huge difference in understanding what general attitudes people here have, and liberal style politically correct ain't it.
Whoops... Grammar Nazi on patrol again... "isn't it" would be a better choice :-)
We are so far beyond the MSM created labels of "liberals" and "conservatives" in this mess, it's not even funny.
Yes, and some of us have been that way for decades by voting third party or independent.
I never trusted Bush for a minute and voted against him twice.
Obama, forget about it. No chance. At least Ron Paul has some clue.
Well, you are just so much smarter than just about everyone on ZH that I nominate you as the official ZH mascot... now scurry away and find your costume...
Actually I only consider myself smarter than one little bitch around here.
I don't have a problem with anybody that doesn't get smart ass with me and try to tell me how it is.
You mean like you were telling 'Defender' up above 'how it is' around here on ZH...
Like I said I only have had a problem with one liberal at this website trying to tell me how it is. Nothing really left to discuss.
OK... you can have the last word...
That is very kind of you. For my last word....I think we have both made our feelings known and I don't come to this website for this type conversation and I doubt that you do either. Perhaps it is time for us both to move onward.
OK... this is not the 'official last word', because you had the 'official last word'... maybe we can just 'agree to disagree' on some things... because there are many things I actually agree with you on... you are quite articulate and have good ideas...
Okay I apologize.
I apologize also :-)
Now, if I were Chumbawamba, I would have said something like .... oh! nevermind.
Am sure glad the you both mended the fences. Calmer heads prevailed.
and lots of hair whipping around!
Married with children
lmao... we'll try to include sound effects for you next time :-)
One thing ZH doesn't need is cyberspace "tough guys", who you just know are pussies in real life, calling an obviously smart women a bitch.
And that's the way it is.
Cowbell: While your opinion is highly valued, this incident was started in my mind by two or three posters attacking me unfairly on a prior thread as opposed to discussing whether or not my post was of merit.
As far as the words exchanged above, that was all getting too personal, and I am always willing to apologize, forgive and forget for my part to the appropriate person. I think we all just need to concentrate on the message and not the 'character' behind the message, and we do have some characters here!
I certainly agree that we all need to be part of the solution, and the problem is all 500 of those people that run our country, not each other.
I don't think liberals or conservatives have cornered the market on "clueless". So i vote for just clueless.
And the biggest problem isn't the people who voted for Obama/Bush or any other candidate. The biggest problem is the general level of apathy found in the American public as a whole. This apathy started after Watergate and continues unabated through today. This apathy has allowed political corruption and crony capitalism to flourish. As we all should know by now corruption is like a whore, it has no real master and is for sale to the highest bidder.
The apathy death spiral, embraced by the American public (where no one is responsible or accountable for any action) is the ultimate problem.
Yes lizzy, you are correct.
+200
Like I would vote for a ticket with Sarah Palin on it?
or rather. . .
you did?
:-) That was my problem also this year...
Excellent point, MN. How long has Chumbawumba been here? Who cares.
Let's introduce ourselves so they can organize us better.
BAM! TO BEHOLD, A PUBLIC BULLETIN BOARD, BUILT OF BOTH BRILLIANCE AND BARBARITY BY BASTARDS WITH BONERS. THIS BASTION NO MERE BULWARK OF BOREDOM, IS A BRUTAL BARRAGE THAT BLISTERS BULLSHIT,BARELY BENEVOLANT... BUT BEHIND THE BIGOTRY AND THE BOOBS, BEYOND THE BITTER BROADCASTS OF BRAGGING BUFFOONS: HERE BE THE BODY POLITIC. A BROTHERHOOD OF BLASPHEMY, BLESSED WITH BOTH BALLS AND BRAINS, BATTLING THE BLAND, THE BOGUS, THE BENIGN BEDLAM? BRING IT ON!! BUT I BABBLE... BETTER TO BE BRIEF. YOU MAY CALL US /B/.
B+!
None of us were at ZeroHedge at day 1. Look back in the blogger archives and you'll see a few weeks of posts without any comments.
"Ironic", eh? Graduated from the Alanis Morisette School I see.
The bullion banks are loaded with shorts. They are going to feed the chinese gold all next week.
What's the feel for the Sino trade shot? I would think this would spook a short term (significant) down draft but surely a calculation was made prior by the community organizer? So what would be the counterbalance? Duh, the Chicoms got us but good- so what's the play?
More on the Trade Wars and specifically Smoot-Hawley can be read here
Shades of Smoot-Hawley Act, Obama Imposes Tariff on Tireslooks like I'll be busy reading all day. Just finished the article in esquire re: Barclays, Lehman, House of Dimon. Quite interesting, indeed. The article seems to conclude/lead one to believe that JPM was being an asshole on the $7billion. I'm curious if there is reasonable logic on the other side of the opinion.
the Queen of Dimon, like all queens boys, is too much of a pussy to fight like a man.
Jamie, come out and play!
"looks like I'll be busy reading all day."
My thoughts exactly deadhead. With the trade war between China and US having already begun, and millions physically showing up in DC for protests (and after what felt like the dullest summer ever), looks like the eye of the hurricane has passed and we may be in for a pretty exciting Fall (no pun intended). F--k the status-quo and let the games begin!
we are witnessing incredible history, i'm convinced. the chess game with the chinese is becoming more interesting by the day.
think we'll get the obama short tomorrow when he is in NY? I hit that thing 4 or 5 times in late 08, early 09.
Obama is going to give us a preview of his speech tomorrow, on 60 minutes tonight.
At this point one wonders why there isn't a 24 hour all O (oprah and obama) all the time channel.
lol
Obama is going to give us a preview of his speech tomorrow
I wonder if his guys are going to be in the futures pits tonight....or, are we gonna get the Obama short tomorrow.
Ya gotta admit that it would be kind of funny to see some tankage tomorrow as Obama is speaking at Federal Hall....
That would be a little funny... just like in Jan/Feb/March... the longer Bush/Obama/Bernanke/Paulson/Geithner spoke the more the market dropped... I hope CNBC has the DJIA ticker going during the speech...
Could anyone share a summary of what he said in his preview? USD just spiked half a percent, and futures took a dive.
i was listening with 1/2 a ear and heard nothing but blah, blah, blah.
just noticed dj futures are off 100 and spoos off almost 12.
Woo-hoo... I think its going to be a fun day tomorrow...
Fred eats a pickle and sips his coffee. He has a bald head and a goatee, and wears a red checked shirt. Then he says, "The entire city now understands there's too much at stake, and none of us wants New York to break apart. We're at a watershed. Everyone knows that."<<<<
anyone ever notice how funny it is, when people who live in some city start acting like they are part of the big picture, and that .....we should all work together to help out.....etc.
people can be very funny sometimes. they talk in terms that they think that some city like new york is full of people who are all in the same boat and want to help the city to continue to exist. this is pure bullshit. the only thing the state wants from you or anyone else, is your damn tax money. it is always the silly politicians that try to promulgate the silly idea, that the citizens of some city, somehow, due to their residence, have ownership rights. it is the same with this silly notion of civic pride. people are made to be very proud of some city by whatever means necessary but at the same time while they are having smoke blown up their asses and they are being told to be proud of their city, the state has its hand in their collective pockets, taking whatever money it can which is what it really always wants anyway. it is the height of stupidity to think that the moronic notion of civic pride is nothing less than a big lie. its like the game of professional football. people act like what they think is important and they are told to be very proud that their city has a team, etc. but when the smoke clears from all of this nonsense and the needless and unnecessary brand new stadiums are built and the taxpayer is told , no worries mate, we won't need anything from you, as long as hotel and rental taxes continue to hold up, then you can enjoy yourself by going down and paying large sums of money to see large ignorant men run around on some green field that in the end you will pay for. my, my, it is nice to have civic pride and have a professional football team and be proud of your city and your team........yeh right........beam me up scottie, wherever you are..:)
The government only gives a damn at two times. One, at tax time & two, at election time. Actually they only PRETEND to give a damn at election time. Once you give up the vote it's, "Get lost little man & I mean NOW or I'll call security."
The United States, when being referred to so as to elicit the 'force of social proof' is nothing more than a granfalloon. Google can explain.
Tariffs are so yesterday. There are more effective ways to install trade barriers. Just look at Chinese, with all of their requirements that goods sold there had high % of locally manufactured components. Those barriers are almost invisible.
I would start with a requirement that all food ingredients from CHina pass a laboratory certification in here.
p.s. I do agree that we all will lose with those trade disputes, however whoever starts disputes first will lose the least. We should have started those much earlier, probably pre Chinese WTO entry. I guess it doesn't always pay to be nice.
Finding Market Indicators To Give You Confidence In Timing The Market:
http://chartsandcoffee.blogspot.com/2009/09/finding-relevant-indicators....
I'd put tariffs on cheap Chinese drywalls and cheap Chinese made lead-tainted toys.
You add protectionism with a falling dollar and what do we get............?
Also the comparison to "Smoot Hawley" might be irrelevant at this point. Back then tariffs were slapped on everyone, today it's hopefully mostly CHina. Back then Europe and us had the similar work force and labor / environmental regulations (or lack of those), today there is a huge difference between disputing sides. Back then we weren't as nice as to turn our heads away when the other party clearly manipulated the trade for over a decade.
At any rate, if you are a governing official and its clear that everything moves toward trade wars, what gain in there for waiting and acting at the very last moment?
I do agree that it would be much wiser to be silent about any of those moves. There is a little gain in press conferences or appearance of being too bold. Being apologetic, taking your sweet time with promises to investigate & statements promising to fix the situation while never acting on those is much better strategy.
p.s. Overall the above is an excellent selection for weekend reading.
While dancing on today's flames and worrying about a crash, there is still a robust and creative future.
Homo sapiens move to homo evolutis...the ultimate reboot.
http://economicedge.blogspot.com/2009/09/where-we-are-rght-now-and-where...
Maybe Depression expert Ben will land his helicopter long enough to edumacate Obama on the effects of Smoot Hawley but then maybe destruction is what he's after.
The 2 million number for the tea bagger party was made up by the guy that runs the astro turf group that promotes them. The actual estimate by the local fire department was 50-70 thousand. Fifty thousand old, white, angry people all basically shouting "Get off my lawn!".
And with round the clock instigation from the drug-addled gas-bag. (Do I even need to say Limbaugh?)
Unless you live in Australia I wouldn't worry about the one Tamiflu resistant case of H1N1 (swine flu) in Australia... the United States has had 9 cases of Tamiflu resistant H1N1...
Additional Spread of Tamiflu Resistance In the United States
Recombinomics Commentary 06:21
September 10, 2009
http://www.recombinomics.com/News/09100901/H274Y_US_Additional.html
Tamiflu is only effective if it's given within 48 hours after the onset of symptoms, otherwise it's useless. How many people seek medical care & actually ingest the medication within 48 hours. The Tamiflu resistance story is overdone if you ask me.
if the flu doesn't get you the Tamiflu may
- this stuff is not to be triffled as in younger people Tamiflu has been associated with Delirium and Suicide
http://www.fda.gov/ohrms/dockets/ac/07/briefing/2007-4325b_02_15_Sponsor...
http://psychcentral.com/news/2006/11/15/fda-warns-about-suicide-delirum-...
Also one more excellent article out on Bloomberg tonight on the H1N1 virus... they now have even better theories as to why some people are getting so sick, even dying from the H1N1... and others it doesn't touch... HINT: Don't breath to deep.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601124&sid=aA5k7CsfjJ2o
Esquire? You're linking an Esquire article?
Captcha: (-21) plus (-53) equals ... I put in -74, you respond with "can't be longer than 2 characters" Um... What else is it supposed to equal?
You're supposed to use Federal Reserve math. - = +
lol... so that's the trick...
Having read Todd Purdum's previous exposes, I thought his extensive time with Paulson would have provided something accurate, tough questions, and genuine information.
Instead I read a short white-wash blurb in which the only nugget I got was that Paulson was naive and that it's impossible to tell the truth in Washington.
Huge disappointment for Vanity Fair's usually great journalism, and a black eye for Purdum. I'll never trust him again when it comes to dealing with the omnipotentates.
Boo.
Vanity Fair article = good bird cage liner
ummm, how about those tax breaks when Paulson was forced to sell his stock after becoming treasury secretary? Yes, so "reluctant" to take the job. I can think of about 200 million reasons to take the job.
i will agree wholeheartedly that the issue of the Paulson cap gains tax break should have clearly been covered in the article during the "reluctant to take the job" portion, no question about it.
Excellent reading list Tyler!
BTW, looks like The Messiah has not been able to keep the "bread and circuses" going. We finally have people physically showing up in DC. I am practically giddy with excitement. All we need now is to drag 'em criminals out of their holes and bring them to justice. Not surprisingly, NY Times lists protestors in the "thousands" whereas Dailymail, more accurately, reports in the millions.
Were you there?
Personally, I'd be more excited if a large proportion of that crowd didn't also believe that Obama was a Fascist/Communist android bred to destroy the world and take away "freedom" that was in fact gladly and lazily handed over years ago when it was done under the Republican flag of Patriotism (tm).
There is tremendous room for debate about current American policies, but the borderline deranged tone that dominates the discussion is farcical at best and disturbing at worst.
I come to this site for a reason- I'm cynical about the paper-over "recovery" and long for genuine financial/economic reform and non-corporate opinions on financial affairs. The Obama administration has so far dropped the ball on financial matters, and should certainly be called out on it. But pretending that loons who can't distinguish between socialism and fascism are somehow going to save the USA is a fool's game, and they should equally be called out.
I watched Obama's speech to Congress about health care, and I thought one of the most interesting things was the dynamic with the Republicans sitting in the chamber. They looked like a bunch of schoolkids who had been running amok all summer, but now had to sit and get an earful from the teacher. Whatever you think of Obama's politics, the Republicans came across as a bunch of spoiled immature brats who finally got called out on their self-serving auto-cynicism and puerile behaviour.
I get it, Obama's "change" has been superficial at best so far. But what else do you expect from a system that is so entrenched, corrupt, complex and stagnant? Old interests die hard. The administration needs to be pushed harder and criticized vocally. Protests are welcome and necessary, but the gong show in Washington shows me a crowd that is more interested in being sore losers because the guy they don't like won the election than a crowd that is genuinely interested in righting the ship of American state.
Obama's a socialist! A commie! He's tainting the water! He's indoctrinating schoolkids!Give...me...a...f*cking...break. Anyone who spews such junk has obviously NEVER set foot in any political system or country which even tenuously carries such nomenclature.
And unfortunately, it is this nonsense which has overshadowed the more genuine and productive criticism of the Obama administration so far. Like I said, there is much to be argued and debated, but chances for genuine reform are being blocked just as much by misinformed and deceitful Patrio-Populism (tm) as they are by elite interests. I've never seen the word "freedom" being tossed around with so much cynicism and callousness.
Absolutely love this site for its financial analysis, by the way. Imagine that- someone can think things are seriously wrong and not think Obama is also the antichrist. Oh, the novelty!
Very well put, and echoes my thoughts almost exactly.
+1 to the 4th power...
the 'right' obviously did not learn from the last 8 years of the 'left' organizing massive protests that absoulutely did nothing to stall anything the bushies did.
you need to bring more people into the fold kiddees.
peeps who may not share your ideology and do not wish to be identified with it or your 'get off my lawn' approcach. just like you didn't want to be associated with the the left's ideology and their whine tactics, even though you may have agreed with what they were trying to say.
right now, it's just ping pong goes the pendulum
personally we think obama wants to be the antichrist...and is failing miserably.
John of Patmos didn't think of that wrinkle during his mushroom trip.
time to rewrite Revelations?
I have to disagree. I think Obama's viewpoint is highly socialist or at least what a lot of people call Marxist, and yet the guy also lets corporate america run wild and eat our lunch.
I really don't think anybody has a term to characterize just how bizarre this guy is. 'Empty suit' comes close.
As far as the unsaviory/dangerous elements of his regime, that starts with Rahm Emmanuel who by all accounts is a nasty cutthroat career politician in a Chicago political system noted for corruption.
Sorry. Number was about 60-70K according to media. Freedom Works (Disk Armey) claimed 1.5 million, which was an exaggeration to be kind. Pundits ran with that number. "Millions" of marchers would have totally tied up DC. Didn't happen.
Do you mind telling which "media" is that?
This is definitely a good thing overall. However, my optimism subsided after I saw this picture of the event.
http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2009/09/12/article-1213056-0666E255000005...
Glenn Beck for President? The guy gives people capable of critical thought and jigsaw arrangement a bad name. He fake cries and acts like a hyperventilating fairy most of the time he spends on TV.
Also, the comparisons to Hitler are definitely unproductive and in my opinion, unwarranted. While Obama is the CEO of the most corporatist government America has ever seen and a dedicated defender of the status quo which benefits the bankers, he is a completely different story than Hitler. Comparing the two automatically weakens the argument.
Other than that this is definitely a good sign. Maybe, just maybe it will make our politicians think twice the next time they sell out the American people.
Who is in charge of the Must read designation? I respectfully disagree with some of them. Notably that p.o.s. article in Vanity Fair gets a "Must read" while the relevent and insightful article labelled "Blowback" by J.S. Kim only gets an honorable mention in the middle of the pack. This is turning in to Oprah's book club.
Agreed. Also, the Gold article is pretty lame.
100% GG "Blow back" MUST READ top of list
The seeking alpha "blowback" is a very well written piece.
and true.....
good read from Denninger today
http://market-ticker.denninger.net/archives/1429-But-I-Thought-It-Was-Ju...
and an interesting article from today's FT
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/f67c6fe6-a024-11de-b9ef-00144feabdc0.html
“This is a grave act of trade protectionism,” Mr Chen said in a statement.
Good find ANONYMOUS... the stance and words that China is using are very aggressive... I am getting the impression that all of this was not worked out ahead of time between the USA and China.
I think that China is going to be waiting outside in the playground for Obama after the last bell rings...
I hereby predict, here and now, that China will levy tariff at a rate of 35%, 30% and 25% for three years, respectively for autos-related and agriculture products, including poultry, entering into China. (this shall hurt steel workers a little bit? guess not)
The tariff levied on the US-made autos and agriculture products has nothing to do with the retaliation of tariff levied on the tires made in china. It is just coincidence to show action always creates reaction.
Gee, you wonder chinese learn fast. They copy the exact strategy used by the USA. Brilliant! Speechless!
Stop to consider this... maybe some brilliant economic mind could comment:
A trade war would substantially decrease deflationary pressures... prices will escalate on most everything... and combine that with QE... the velocity of money would also increase.
Maybe this is orchestrated... where is Gordon-Gekko when you need his commentary...
yeah prices would go up but the job loss and income suffocation would more than offset that ST phenom - deflaion is the name of the game. Shortages are not a polictical ballot winner
Very true...
Actually it seems that both sides wanted this trade war and probably talked about it indirectly a number of times when Clinton went to beg for money.
Obama wants his union votes and China wants protectionism as well.
The Chinese are just smart enough to let Obama be the instigator.
Stealfrom I saw you make a similar comment - I am interested in understanding the rationale for China wanting protectionism? I have to think this was a prepackaged deal
Unspoken but pre-packaged I believe.
They both want inflation.
Obama will win points from the union for making the move. China has their excuse and clearly are very prepared to go at it.
The most interesting part of that Esquire article was the statement by Diamond that he was queried by Steel about potential interest in Lehman back in May to April of 2008. This was back when Fuld, Paulson et al. were stating that everything was fine.
So you had a high ranking Treasury official holding off the record talks with an executive from an international bank about a potential sale of a third party.
bingo!
A+ for reading comprehension 68284. I always enjoy embargoed articles because something comes out....I would also add the Paulson strategy shift from buying bank fecal matter at the time to injection of capital into the outhouses.
Always been a confidence game. Doomsayer wranglers all. Must herd the self-confident beef into the slaughterhouse. Certainly can't do so with the beef in the know.
Up to two million march to US Capitol to protest against Obama's spending in "tea party" demonstration (Daily Mail, h/t Keyser Soze)
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/worldnews/article-1213056/Up-million-mar...
Wow. Cheeky Bastard is THE POSTERCHILD for this whole movement to take back America!
It was closer to 70,000 but who's counting.
Will we get a complaint about you being "The Facts Police"?
I don't know about The Facts Police, but the Grammar Nazi is on patrol tonight :-)
I did not count so I would not know. However I do like the fact that Cheeky bastard is the posterchild for the movement.
Silver - How do you know the number?
PS Cheeky`s mug is everywhere - utility poles, newspapers - everywhere
yes, yes my child; and soon, on the Moon ....
You ain't see nothing yet. Wait till next spring then you shall see What k-street in DC really means!
When people have nothing left to lose, then they lose it, big time.
Madame Defarge knitting the nation's future with the bowels of the aristos?
"The tariff levied on the US-made autos"
I wonder what percentage of those the US - made autos is actually made in the US. My bet would be 5 % or less, including the final assembly. Besides, if they go on with the tariff wars (and they would go on with those anyway ), we ve got more of their imports than they are of ours.
In addition, it doesn't take a long time to move manufacture to Vietnam or Mexico, and that's exactly what US based corporations that market those products will do.
As of the idea that our products or brands have any significant share of the CHinese market, who are we kidding. They are not interested in our exports, nor in normal trade. They are interested in getting their hands on our technology & most of our corporate overloads too happy to provide it without thinking that within the short time their nearsight will turn against them.
China produced 1o million cars last year.
Both GM and Ford have a significant market share in China. China was GM's largest market outside of USA. I believe the engine/transmission/parts are supplied from the USA to the GM /ford assemblies in China.
Tariffing GM/Ford will definitely make Volkswagen/toyota/etc happy and grap the market share from GM (the number one market share leader). Ford enjoys a waiting list buyer for its new model.
http://www1.cei.gov.cn/ce/doc/cenk/200806180709.htm
from the above link:
"According to the deals separately signed in Washington on Monday, GM will export 1 billion U.S. dollar worth of component kits, machinery, equipment and fully assembled vehicles including the luxury Cadillac brand to one of its Chinese partners, Shanghai General Motors, through 2010."
Source:www.chinaview.cn 2008-06-18
So the Chinese stripped tech & equipment from closing GM plants, what else is new? It's 1.8 bl dollars worth of goods vs. what was the latest US-China deficit, 10 -20 bl a month?
I do believe that Classic Economists (Smith, Ricardo) were right about free trade, when it comes to everybody playing by the rules. However when one party engages in "freeloading" and is relatively large world player, it creates disequilibrium both in trade and consumption of the other player.
So we have a problem, Chinese were manipulating the trade. We tried to be nice (too nice) and closed our eyes on it, hoping the situation will change. Has it worked? So what is potential solution, close our eyes and wish the problem to go away? Or should we wait until they will move first with increase in trade barriers, so we will look nice (questionable because as long as we powerful, the rest of the world will think we are evil, no matter what.) and lose out even more? (lose out compared to us moving with barriers first.)
Well, I am no car or trade expert, just an obersever of the market. If you believe US is not engaging in trade barrier or manipulation, then you are naive at best.
Take chinese car, for example. China managed to export 700,000 car last year, but not a single one here in the USA. Why? As far as I know, there is some kind of certification process required. Also, the car produced by joint ventures between GM and Chinese car makers, for example, cannot be exported into the USA. WAs that some kind of trade barrier? No? Though I do sure certain consumers here would like to buy a new car at sub-5000$ even at a slightly inferior quality.
Was the use of US dollar as reserve currency givng the US unfair trading advantage? No?
so when china followed the example set by Obama by citing WTO as the basis for tariff ( dumping, given the fact US government gave billions of billions to GM), it suddently became chinese manipulated US car markets?
Quid Pro Quo? That's part of human nature which ensures that the great depression will be here because every union only cares about its own benefit, other consumers and unions be damned.
It seems soon UAW union will be pissed off by steel union workers and farmers will soon be pissed off by all unions.
This economy has a metastasizing tumour eating out its bowels. But it refuses to acknowledge that nestled among its organs and within all its tissues is an exponentially replicating body which the host has no immunity to.
The parasympathetic (SLUDD) and sympathetic are fully aware and fully engaged in combatting and overwhelming foe. Meanwhile the mind (environment conditioned portion of the brain) reacts with a denial of infirmity. No disease, no harm, no danger etc. response.
The less sentient portion of the nervous system is reacting and may even sense that this cancer is terminal; however, the mind will ignore all symptoms and deny loss of function until the bitter end.
This is the state of the USA, and to lesser extent global, nation. Denial, and ramping of confidence tactics to instill mental harmony, of the death of the organism.
The USA will not enact the necessary changes to bring its financial house to equilibrium or even surplus. It is a dead man walking. It lacks the will. It is in comprehensive denial. It will follow the course of least resistance until its institutions and finally its lifeblood (currency) are extinguished. All systems, organs, tissues, cells will be affected.
No man is an island. No cell exists independent of the larger body. Killing the nation will kill the individual.
Debt is the cancer. It has gone terminal. There is no way out, as any solution cannot exceed the demand of the exponent. Arraying all defensive mechanisms against the metastasizing growth will, even still, be found wanting.
The diagnosis is death. Life may be prolonged by palliatives and even denial. But death is imminent.
"A merchant in Baghdad sends his servant to the marketplace for provisions. Shortly, the servant comes home white and trembling and tells him that in the marketplace he was jostled by a woman, whom he recognized as Death, and she made a threatening gesture. Borrowing the merchant's horse, he flees at top speed to Samarra, where he believes Death will not find him. The merchant then goes to the marketplace and finds Death, and asks why she made the threatening gesture. She replies, "That was not a threatening gesture, it was only a start of surprise. I was astonished to see him in Baghdad, for I had an appointment with him tonight in Samarra."
Bear Sterns, Lehman were the jostling. But today we are in Samarra and are a sleeve's length from being "found".
Words of wisdom:
"You cannot legislate the poor into prosperity by legislating the wealthy out of prosperity. What one person receives without working for, another person must work for without receiving. The government cannot give to anybody anything that the government does not first take from somebody else. When half of the people get the idea that they do not have to work because the other half is going to take care of them, and when the other half gets the idea that it does no good to work because somebody else is going to get what they work for, that my dear friend, is the beginning of the end of any nation. You cannot multiply wealth by dividing it."
Adrian Rogers, 1931
"The biggest and most secretive gathering of ships in maritime history lies at anchor east of Singapore. Never before photographed, it is bigger than the U.S. and British navies combined but has no crew, no cargo and no destination - and is why your Christmas stocking may be on the light side this year"
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/home/moslive/article-1212013/Revealed-The-gho...
Thanks for the link; very informative article.
This is the single most important factor of "the economy" right now IMHO, since this is the paradigm shift that mostly everybody (policy makers, consumers, bankers, exporters importers etc etc) want avoid, yet it is happening nonetheless. Here are some signs of deflation:
"You may wish to know this because, if ever you had an irrational desire to charter one, now would be the time. This time last year, an Aframax tanker capable of carrying 80,000 tons of cargo would cost £31,000 a day ($50,000). Now it is about £3,400 ($5,500)."
"So far the shipyards are continuing to work, but the problems will start to emerge next year and certainly in 2011, because that is when the current orders will have been delivered. There have hardly been any new orders in the past year. In 2011, the shipyards will simply run out of ships to build."
Stiglitz (and Volker): Banking Problems Are Now Bigger Than Pre-Lehman
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a7UTn7JFw1qk
Do not fear sheeple, China will not cross its #1 customer. Will no allow the USD to fail and will pressure the banks to lend and keep debt high...
some various perspectives on spending:
(dailymail.co.uk) A million march to US Capitol to protest against 'Obama
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/worldnews/article-1213056/Up-million-mar...
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(NPR) Crowds Pack Downtown D.C. To Protest Spending
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=112781731
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(CNN)Tea party activists rally at U.S. Capitol
http://www.cnn.com/2009/POLITICS/09/12/tea.party.rally/
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(ABC) Tea Party Protesters March on Washington
http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/tea-party-protesters-march-washington/sto...
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(MSNBC) Thousands pack D.C. to protest spending, taxes
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/32811199/ns/politics-more_politics/
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(CBS) Thousands in D.C. Protest Gov't Spending
http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2009/09/12/politics/main5305732.shtml
As soon to be convicts are just dropping like flies, I tried to find out who the financial institutions tied to Tiawan's Danny Pang's PEMGroup fraud were....http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124042541095444459.html
and love how GE makes it on every credible incredulous list. Any comments as to these institutions? Looks they all have had to look into their bookkeeping, without any accountability or MSM noseying, yes minor i know but just another fraud to add to the list. When are they going to piss off the wrong person?
CNN reports on the congress being bought and paid for, and you'll never guess by whom...
[hint: It's not the American People]
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZWwOOkZrDgI
and the website they use is a good one
http://www.opensecrets.org/
boys and girls, any guesses on what time the start to jam the futures higher tonight?
in anticipation of a brave new world of financial regulation and the end of `too big to fail` - I can hardly wait for Monday`s big speech on how the administration will clean up the finanical crisis it inherited (from itself).
i agree that they will likely jam 'em up...however, more details are leaking out about Obama's speech and whether or not he means it, he's talking pretty tough, right next door to the NYSE to boot. maybe it's just g 20 positioning, talking honey to his huffpo base.
then again, will wall st decide to teach him a lesson tomorrow?
While we are sleeping Lizzy. They are sneaky little weasels.
Dollar up but leveling out as of 10:00.
From the Der Spiegel article:
"speculators are leaving, artists are returning".
Two sides of the same coin. Both groups expect to be able to live above their ability to produce anything of value.
It is unlikely that the number of folks who can, for example, trade financial markets well in a non-bull market, is any different from the number of folks who actually have something of interest to say with their self-proclaimed "art".
Pick your poison.
Absurd.
Who are you to measure art's value?
Art, good sir, is eternal. If you have no faith in the artists that will hopefully overtake the streets of New York, then I have to question your faith in humanity as a whole.
I have to refer your to this fine esssay penned by Ralph Waldo Emerson to hopefully sway your opinion of artists:
http://www.emersoncentral.com/art.htm
CNBC one year later on now (sorry to all cnbc haters but can't help but watch some of it).
anyone remember watching the special they threw together last year on sunday night when is became apparent that LEH was going down on monday (and bac bot mer)?
I tried to watch the CNBC thing, but couldn't deal with an hour full of Maria. Not sure what to believe out of Mack either.
Watched Obama on 60 minutes with hope of a peek of tomorrows talk to Wall Street. Didn't get much. MarketWatch is reporting "Obama is scheduled to speak midday at Federal Hall in New York to discuss steps the administration is taking to revive the economy and what efforts it is taking to phase out its bank bailout programs. He is also expected to press Washington lawmakers to move quickly to enact regulatory restructuring legislation."
Market probably takes off, lead by the financials of course.
This isn't rocket science.
1. Break up the big banks ala Standard Oil. (Maybe we need to look to the judicial branch for this one.)
2. Require all derivitives be traded on an exchange.
That's it. Done.
Good morning my finance Gladiators! Pay no heed to all headlines for they mean nothing but chatter. It's the new Norm. All talk, no action!
Obama's speech on WS is to appease the Banksters and keep the pitch forks at bay!!!