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Surge In GLD December $145 Call Volume

Tyler Durden's picture




 

While it is not surprising that 9 out of the top 10 option classes in GLD are calls, what is odd is that the most actively traded call by a substantial margin are the December $145 strikes. In other words, specs are betting that gold will move $60 higher in the next three weeks. Judging by today's 4% move in silver, the less valuable cousin may have a comparable move.

 

 

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Tue, 11/30/2010 - 13:15 | 764704 unwashedmass
unwashedmass's picture

well, this is a surprise?

the CTFC is supposed to announce position limits on 12/16, and they say they are going to include gold and silver.....now yes, JPM has probably paid off everyone in sight and will get some sort of godlike exemption, but....the wheels are falling on them.....are they the wiki bank? I hope so.

and...excuse me, but, hello, the Comex is rumored to be unable to handle whatever delivery demand comes in for December......

so yes....could we rise 60 bucks in the next three weeks? i think, as a wild bet, 60 is conservative. try 200.

Tue, 11/30/2010 - 13:17 | 764712 unwashedmass
unwashedmass's picture

 

oh, and let's not forget the gold/silver stocks that have been --ooooooo i don't see this happening says Shelia Baer --- naked shorted into the ground that are now transforming into rocketships on JPM.....

Tue, 11/30/2010 - 13:55 | 764832 flacon
flacon's picture

I agree, I am really disappointed that they keep on shorting the mining stocks. One day they are going to go bananas! 

Tue, 11/30/2010 - 14:15 | 764909 Spitzer
Spitzer's picture

As per TSX

AXR-7%

FVI-8%

SVM-5.5%

FV-4.5%

On the gold side

UXG-13%

XG-12%

ITH-10%

 

 

Tue, 11/30/2010 - 15:08 | 765094 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

SLW just broke its resistence and should head to new highs now.  a big x is at resistence, if gold breaks out abx will be one of the best plays outside of owning the physical.  Brian Mulroney is stoked.

Tue, 11/30/2010 - 13:18 | 764715 qrad
qrad's picture

we'll only find out if the comex can't handle the delivery requests if we actually stand for delivery. now is the time. let's make it happen. http://standfordelivery.com

Tue, 11/30/2010 - 13:27 | 764742 Eternal Student
Eternal Student's picture

Indeed. The Comex may be insolvent. Note the word "may"; but that's noteworthy in itself.

 

http://truthingold.blogspot.com/2010/11/comex-may-have-problem.html

 

"What does this mean, in the context of the cartel being unable to force liqidate a majority of the open gold/silver positions? Everyone reading this can use their imagination and I'm not willing to predict how this will unfold, but right now the Comex has a problem."

Tue, 11/30/2010 - 13:29 | 764750 unwashedmass
unwashedmass's picture

 

all these folks holding long contracts at the Comex may be forced to take the cash....lucky them, eh?

shoulda taken it before this, that's for sure......

Tue, 11/30/2010 - 13:41 | 764791 Arius
Arius's picture

 

yeah - despite the numbers they might NOT have anything close what they say they do.

if so, take the cash and shut up - what can they do? 

Tue, 11/30/2010 - 13:42 | 764794 smeagol
smeagol's picture

have a look at AgAupm's blog its a complete rundown of comex delivery demands and inventory for Dec

 

http://agaupm.com/can-comex-deliver-silver-and-gold-in-dec-2010/

 

bye bye comex :-)

Tue, 11/30/2010 - 14:40 | 765004 unwashedmass
unwashedmass's picture

ya think this means the folks on the silver desk at JPM won't get a bonus this year?

Tue, 11/30/2010 - 13:52 | 764821 DosZap
DosZap's picture

By moving the goal posts, JPM is cutting its own throat,(IMHO) this will make a LOT of folks start buying physical.

Damned if they do, damned if they don't.

Tue, 11/30/2010 - 13:56 | 764836 MarketTruth
MarketTruth's picture

 

OPEN INTEREST COMEX REPORT
Gold open interest as of Monday morning is 59,412 contracts. This translates into 5.9 million ounces. The Comex gold inventory shows only 2.6 million ounces of gold registered and approved for delivery.

 

In silver, there are 17,208 open contracts. This translates into 86 million ounces. The Comex reports 48.5 million ounces available and approved for delivery.

 

What does this mean, in the context of the cartel being unable to force liquidate a majority of the open gold/silver positions? Everyone reading this can use their imagination and I'm not willing to predict how this will unfold, but right now the Comex has a problem.

Tue, 11/30/2010 - 14:16 | 764911 free_as_in_beer
free_as_in_beer's picture

Aren't the paper longs just as vulnerable as the paper shorts?

Being long 20 cars is a far cry from being able to take delivery of them.

Tue, 11/30/2010 - 13:34 | 764767 Testicular Cancer
Testicular Cancer's picture

You know, you bring a good point. Is GLD considered a commodity or a stock/fund. May not fall into the CFTC realm. Hmmm. Get the bennies w/o the requirements.

Tue, 11/30/2010 - 14:27 | 764949 MarketTruth
MarketTruth's picture

GLD may be a fraud. Read their 10-K and the liabilities and disclaimers alone should wake ANY investor up to the fact GLD may not be backed by 100% real gold totally unencumbered and in good delivery form. Add to that, investors take a loss due to operational/admin costs.

Smart investors buy and hold physical gold.

Tue, 11/30/2010 - 14:03 | 764869 MyKillK
MyKillK's picture

The CFTC is already hedging on the 12/16 timeline basically saying it's "complicated" and they probably will have to delay implementation after the new year.

I took that to mean that the banks are pushing for a delay so they can figure out what to do and how to bypass the new rules.

Tue, 11/30/2010 - 13:15 | 764705 Goldenballs
Goldenballs's picture

Silver up $1.57 as I write.The fun is starting,the cannibals are out in force.

Tue, 11/30/2010 - 13:16 | 764707 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

Penny stocks starting to move out.

Tue, 11/30/2010 - 13:30 | 764756 oddjob
oddjob's picture

The whole TSX-V is looking good.

Tue, 11/30/2010 - 13:37 | 764779 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Au, Ag, Pt and Pd are all moving out.

To the moon Alice.

Tue, 11/30/2010 - 14:23 | 764849 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Shirakawa will buy anything so not to be the first CBer to drop the FIAT ponzi ball.

 

Tue, 11/30/2010 - 14:07 | 764877 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

RoboT was it you who loaded up all those GLD calls? Come on, you can tell us!

Tue, 11/30/2010 - 14:47 | 765025 Dr. No
Dr. No's picture

Robo is a one day price action guy.  Those calls are waaaaay to far out for his fundamental models to work.

Tue, 11/30/2010 - 13:17 | 764710 overmedicatedun...
overmedicatedundersexed's picture

.

Tue, 11/30/2010 - 13:17 | 764711 SilverIsKing
SilverIsKing's picture

Shorts are now running for cover.  Could easily see $145 GLD by Dec OPEX.

I just saw they were going for 0.31 so I picked up a few myself.

Thanks for the tip.  :-)

Tue, 11/30/2010 - 13:20 | 764720 Silverhog
Silverhog's picture

Wikileak JPM , that would be the balls!

Tue, 11/30/2010 - 13:23 | 764732 SilverRhino
SilverRhino's picture

I'd rather see the wikileak for the vampire squid.  

Tue, 11/30/2010 - 13:25 | 764735 Ragnarok
Ragnarok's picture

I think JPM is more active in the day to day operations of the Ponzi, GS just makes more money off it.  So I hope it's JPM and end the Ponzi.

Tue, 11/30/2010 - 13:31 | 764759 traderjoe
traderjoe's picture

I hope it's BAC and the leak is related to housing mortgage finance - would make it much more relevant to J6P. Average Joe/Jane could care less about gold/silver manipulation, but would about their mortgage, etc. 

Tue, 11/30/2010 - 15:37 | 765209 bernorange
bernorange's picture

Looks like it's BAC:

"At the moment, for example, we are sitting on 5GB from Bank of America, one of the executive's hard drives,"

http://www.computerworld.com/s/article/9139180/Wikileaks_plans_to_make_the_Web_a_leakier_place

Tue, 11/30/2010 - 13:43 | 764797 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Silverhog, Ragnarok,

I'm with you guys, wiki-JPM would really start the blast off.  Imagine that, JPM gets nuked by the sissy-Swede, LOL.

...

Calling JonNadler!  Calling JonNadler!  Jamie needs to see you in his office right away.  I believe he wants you and TWORIVER and Robot and JW to bat gold down to $0.02 and silver to $0.01.  STAT!

Tue, 11/30/2010 - 13:51 | 764813 TWORIVER
TWORIVER's picture

Even I got a kick out of that one! I'm not a permabear and a move over 1400 will unlock a move to 1500. If Gold can't do it, then it is in position to fail and confirm a top. Volume patterns look negative. Why get so emotional about it?

Tue, 11/30/2010 - 13:54 | 764830 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

If Turd's guess is right, well, the moon ain't got nothing onto where we are going!

by Turd Ferguson
on Mon, 11/29/2010 - 20:18
#763279

 

Hey, Jimi, maybe the "big US bank" is JPM? How bout a little wiki-silver manipulation?

Tue, 11/30/2010 - 13:57 | 764846 redpill
redpill's picture

Isn't he an Aussie?

Tue, 11/30/2010 - 14:20 | 764932 Bay of Pigs
Bay of Pigs's picture

Nadler is a Swiss Bandit. He is also a complete douche. I have chatted with the man so I know what I'm talking about. Gartman too. Both are MSM shills and pompous assholes.

Tue, 11/30/2010 - 17:27 | 765682 akak
akak's picture

I too have had several lengthy, and VERY revealing, email exchanges with the good (sic) Mr. Nadler.  Part of one of these exchanges can be read in the thread linked here:

http://forums.silverseek.com/showthread.php?8632-The-Idiocy-of-Jon-Nadle...

Even from this one partial exchange, the disingenuous, dissembling, anti-gold agenda-driven tack of Jon Nadler's arguments is clear for all to see.  The man is nothing, NOTHING but a shill for the big banks and financial status-quo, and his many hysterical and intellectually laughable attacks on the advocates of gold demonstrate again and again just where his true sympathies and loyalties lie: with the corrupt and kleptocratic powers-that-be.  The man is a coward and a liar, and a laughingstock among all those who honestly and objectively observe the gold market.

 

Tue, 11/30/2010 - 17:55 | 765842 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

So, how does he maintain the gig at Kitco?  That has always amazed me.

Tue, 11/30/2010 - 18:03 | 765890 akak
akak's picture

That IS the $64,000 question, isn't it?

It is interesting to note that it was Jon Nadler who was instrumental in setting up Kitco's pooled (fractional reserve?  Ponzilike?) precious metals accounts.

Something tells me that Kitco is not all that it pretends to be --- or else is much more.

Tue, 11/30/2010 - 18:42 | 766055 Bay of Pigs
Bay of Pigs's picture

Yes, which explains WHY he is a gold and silver BEAR, dressed up as a BULL. He is most likely terrified of what he is looking at. History will judge the man for his bold faced lies.

Tue, 11/30/2010 - 14:59 | 764991 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

redpill, if you are talking about Assange, you might be right, but I thought I had read somewhere that he was Swedish, but, Hell, I don't know.

If he is an Aussie, I stand corrected, thanks.  

Sissy-Aussie then.  Which might be the proper role for him to play now, lots of people are looking for him...

 

EDIT:  You are right.  Australian.

Tue, 11/30/2010 - 13:55 | 764833 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

I'd rather the Wikibank be GS, but JPM would be fine too.

Tue, 11/30/2010 - 13:58 | 764851 Shameful
Shameful's picture

Call me a pessimist but I'm expecting the leak to me something like Lehman, or maybe BAC.  Messing with the Pentagon or the State Department is one thing.  It's quite another to touch JPM.

Tue, 11/30/2010 - 14:01 | 764862 samsara
samsara's picture

Again,  Take a contrarian view on the leaks.  What if it's really a psyop?  Why?  A falseFlag?  This time, not a dirty bomb, maybe a Cyber-False Flag?   But to what end?

From this morning's UrbanSurvival.   Watch the coming months unfold. 

 

WikiLeaks:  A Path to Seize the 'Net

I don't usually start off a morning report with a reader note, but this one is just too important to pass by unshared:

"George, In listening to Senator Claire McCaskill, (D), Missouri, who sits on the Armed Services and Homeland Security committees, being interviewed by Chris Mathews on Hardball, MSNBC, it appeared to me that the WikiLeaks dump will be used to choke down the Internet.

I tried to Google and Bing the interview, and also to find the segment on the Hardball website but could not locate it anywhere. So, I watched it again. In response to Mathews, McCaskill said "...the question is, what jurisdiction do we have over the Internet if this information is being published on the Internet in other countries, what jurisdiction do we have? And, I don't think our laws have caught up to that technology, in that regard. But, I do know that there are laws about the hacker, and I know that Senator Ensign and Senator Web are working on some legislation, as we speak, to update some of the statutes as to make sure it covers human intelligence and not just the kind that's written up." -- Hardball, MSNBC, November 29, 2010

Sure enough, with Wikileaks occupying the top half of the Drudge Report (Which headlines Snoop, Spy, Spin at the moment)  and other media, we have to wonder if this isn't indeed some kind of a setup to 'net controls' which we have often previously alluded to? 

 

http://urbansurvival.com/week.htm

 

Tue, 11/30/2010 - 15:29 | 765169 FatFingered
FatFingered's picture

OMG.  I never thought of that.  Frightening.  Very Frightening.  Very possible.

Tue, 11/30/2010 - 17:31 | 765712 Non Passaran
Non Passaran's picture

This is ridiculous...

Tue, 11/30/2010 - 18:09 | 765933 greenbear
greenbear's picture

As the underwear bomber was to justification for naked body scanner/sexual molestation... er, enhanced pat down... er, capital controls (better not try to take your real money out of the country through airport security), wikileaks is to vindication of government takeover of the internet which is heating up RIGHT NOW.   

Tue, 11/30/2010 - 14:02 | 764867 e_goldstein
e_goldstein's picture

I'd rather see the whole damn FEDREZ system start dripping.

Tue, 11/30/2010 - 14:27 | 764954 Bartanist
Bartanist's picture

Speaking of which; anyone have a clue what happened to Andrew McGuire? He seems to have submerged. Lol ... maybe he is working for Assange?

Tue, 11/30/2010 - 14:40 | 765002 apberusdisvet
apberusdisvet's picture

he's with Sprott,according to well founded rumors.

Tue, 11/30/2010 - 13:21 | 764723 overmedicatedun...
overmedicatedundersexed's picture

 silver crash JPM...gotta have em hugging the bowl and blowin chunks..love it

what tricks will they use to slow the bull down??

 

Tue, 11/30/2010 - 13:22 | 764728 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

OIH clears to new highs.  Even while crude oil prices are still stuck at $85.

Can't be good for those bearish on stocks.

Tue, 11/30/2010 - 13:27 | 764740 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Nobody cares about stocks except for the algos.  The stock market is irrelevent, and has been for some time.

Just give it up.  Bonds, currencies, commodities, and money are the only things that matter now, though that list is getting shorter by the minute.

Tue, 11/30/2010 - 13:29 | 764748 FatFingered
FatFingered's picture

Okay Betty.

Tue, 11/30/2010 - 15:20 | 765136 Dr. No
Dr. No's picture

earlier TODAY you posted "peak oilers are scratching their heads"... We are moving from daily to hourly fundamental analysis are we?  You are a tech guy, which is great.  Just keep the comentary to tech analysis and your post quality will be very high.  I suggest: "Moving average guys love the 21 EMA, was good for x%".  or just put up a girly pic and I will skip over the comentary.  Two options for you, arent I constructive?

Tue, 11/30/2010 - 13:23 | 764733 Turd Ferguson
Turd Ferguson's picture

Ole Turd's $1500 by 12/10/10 still has a chance!

Tue, 11/30/2010 - 13:38 | 764785 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

All we need is a little ol' event...

Tue, 11/30/2010 - 21:10 | 766492 Dollar Damocles
Dollar Damocles's picture

Turd, you don't happen to post or share in a forum that is easier to follow like facebook perhaps?  I have been running accross your insightful comments for what seems like a long time now as zerohedge has been a daily read of mine now for years.

Tue, 11/30/2010 - 13:25 | 764736 mark mchugh
mark mchugh's picture

Can we have another "Silver passes $28" party; It was a blast last time. Or should we wait until it goes over $30?  'Cause that might not happen 'til Friday

Tue, 11/30/2010 - 14:20 | 764929 The Disappointed
The Disappointed's picture

I've got a bottle of decent champagne in the fridge for the $30.00 silver close.

Tue, 11/30/2010 - 22:13 | 766614 Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

Silver has short term designs on $35 and long term plans on 50 to 60. You're put unrealistic limitations on it.

Tue, 11/30/2010 - 13:36 | 764775 Internet Tough Guy
Internet Tough Guy's picture

Stop posting from the city bus.

Tue, 11/30/2010 - 13:51 | 764814 mark mchugh
mark mchugh's picture

Why not change your handle to "Real-life whining pussy?"

Tue, 11/30/2010 - 13:28 | 764745 TradingJoe
TradingJoe's picture

This is IT! Everyone and Everything is going BALLISTIC!!! My stops are tighter then a rats ass!

Tue, 11/30/2010 - 13:34 | 764769 spartan117
spartan117's picture

You were just calling tops on everything 10 minutes ago.  Make up you freaking mind.

Tue, 11/30/2010 - 13:48 | 764808 TradingJoe
TradingJoe's picture

Can you read!? Calling a top is "going ballistic" and I have STOPS!!! My Mind is SANE, asnd MADE UP, some other ones' here, I  am not so sure!

Tue, 11/30/2010 - 14:07 | 764884 spartan117
spartan117's picture
by TradingJoe
on Tue, 11/30/2010 - 11:18
#764534


"God" and "the World" is expecting a Dec Rally, I beg to differ! After all this time "it's different"! Tops where ever you look, POMO not really meaning anything anymore, Huge Headline and Geo-Politcal Risk, also everywhere, not to mention Bushie Taxes "un"cut?! All this makes for a potentially VERY UGLY Dec, eh?

I can read just find.  But I don't need to be able to read to tell that you're a fucking idiot.  A top is not "going ballistic".  A top is a top.  Meaning it doesn't go any higher.  Change defintions to suit your idiocy if you want.

Just a week ago you were calling for Gold/Silver to crash.  Do you post for fun, or are you paid to be a nuisance?

 

Tue, 11/30/2010 - 13:29 | 764754 yabyum
yabyum's picture

Turd, Any major event in the world could kick it over  1500 clams. Gotta love siler today!

Tue, 11/30/2010 - 13:47 | 764806 SilverRhino
SilverRhino's picture

Like another 100 rounds of artillery from the Norks?

And yes, silver is the real precious metal.

 

Tue, 11/30/2010 - 13:35 | 764770 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

Put/call ratio surging again today.

Nobody, I mean NOBODY is taking any chances in case the 50-day doesn't hold.

Tue, 11/30/2010 - 13:37 | 764782 Internet Tough Guy
Internet Tough Guy's picture

Threadjacking idiot. Go chase a tech stock.

Tue, 11/30/2010 - 13:37 | 764777 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

Hecla busting a nut today.

Tue, 11/30/2010 - 13:42 | 764792 unwashedmass
unwashedmass's picture

and the peasantry is NOT buying AMZN or CRM like good little bagholders are supposed to....

what to do, what to do.

i think that Ben should now make it mandatory for anyone with a portfolio under 100K to buy 100 shares of AMZN and take the turd off the big boyz hands.

what do you guys think?

Tue, 11/30/2010 - 13:59 | 764853 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Exactly, 'the plan' was to jack up APPL, NFLX, PCLN, and we were all supposed to see the rocket ride and jump on like good little degenerate gamblers they think we are. Didnt happen though, and the FED owns all that crap. Enjoy it guys.

Tue, 11/30/2010 - 15:32 | 765188 LeBalance
LeBalance's picture

But the FED is playing with OPM called $.  All they're IOU belong to US. :)

Wed, 12/01/2010 - 00:47 | 766981 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

Sorry, my trading Droid is down -- waiting for Gold and Silver parts...

Tue, 11/30/2010 - 13:54 | 764827 HelluvaEngineer
HelluvaEngineer's picture

Robo, you are quickly becoming irrelevant.  For those who skip Robo and Harry's posts and just want to watch a heatmap (all they are), here's a link you can use: http://finviz.com/map.ashx

 

On a related note, the QQQ's look ready to crack. 

Tue, 11/30/2010 - 14:00 | 764857 yabyum
yabyum's picture

Robo, Sold HL just in time to NOT take advantage of the last couple of hours. Oh well! still made a few pesos, ya gotta love the JR's on a day like this....like going to the track.

Tue, 11/30/2010 - 16:15 | 765355 duo
duo's picture

Robo, where were you when HL was $1 back in late 2008?

HL is probably headed to $20 before being bought out.

Tue, 11/30/2010 - 13:46 | 764802 Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

I'm sick of watching comex go through various magnitudes of fucked. They are at 8 fucking 3 on the fuckter scale and still alive.

Tue, 11/30/2010 - 13:56 | 764838 Shameful
Shameful's picture

It's not in that much trouble.  Again some one correct me if I'm wrong, but they can cash settle right?  so long as that is open they will not have any real problems as far as contracts go.  Sure open cash settlement will probably lead to a breakdown in market pricing, but depending on what the maniacs want that could be a good thing for them.

Hell if it's known that no metal is expected ro required for delivery seems like JPM could go balls to the wall and drop the PMs below Brown's Bottom.  Now sure would be real difficult to get actual metal for that price but would do real well in destroying the market pricing structure at least in the short term.  Might also spook a lot of weaker hands out of the market to see gold break below 500.

Tue, 11/30/2010 - 14:00 | 764860 Croesus
Croesus's picture

I'd be more than a little bit pissed, if my COMEX silver contracts got settled with SLV shares. . . . . . . .

Tue, 11/30/2010 - 14:07 | 764879 Shameful
Shameful's picture

Yeah and?  Not to sound like a dick, but what would you do about it?  It's in the contract.  And if memory serves can't get physical out of SLV, so it's back to Fun Buxs and maybe another round at the Comex roulette wheel?  I'm not saying the Comex may not run out of metal, I'm just saying it may not matter as much as people think it will. 

Once the paper market is free from the physical market anything can happen in the paper market.  With no paper market the pricing structure will break down.  After all why would longs even bother with the Comex when they know it's a scam, so seems like JPM could get off scott-free.

Tue, 11/30/2010 - 14:42 | 765008 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Sounds like you read FOFOA too, Shameful.

Tue, 11/30/2010 - 14:58 | 765053 Shameful
Shameful's picture

I try to keep my horizons broad.  I still cannot see the seismic shift in society (human nature) necessary for a permanent or even semi permanent freegold.  History is full of those who try to change the monetary system to suit their needs and I cannot imagine in the future that any system that forces gov restraint would be honored.  Well unless govs also become basically hereditary absolute monarchies, then maybe a chance for the semi permanent.  Currancy debasement happens there but is not as consistent.

But I definitely agree with him about how the metals markets are likely to play out.  Paying out fiat instead of metal is a gimmie.  If they are selling 100 - 1 and have the option to pass out paper over metal, odds are they will do it.  Of course it destroys the pricing structure, but TBTF is TBTF after all. 

Wed, 12/01/2010 - 00:50 | 766988 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

Awfully hard to plate tea services with paper, and paper jewelry gets soggy in the shower.

Tue, 11/30/2010 - 14:44 | 765011 Croesus
Croesus's picture

Just making a statement, take it easy, tiger!  

Tue, 11/30/2010 - 14:08 | 764885 Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

As long as you don't mind the PIMP business model. Where men with DICKS set the price of pussy.

Why bother with them at all if they are going to go settling everything in cash and why should they have any say in pricing if they don't have gold.

Tue, 11/30/2010 - 14:17 | 764912 Shameful
Shameful's picture

There will be a different pricing model eventually set up, but I think people are putting to much on the idea of the Comex running out.  All it will do it create pricing uncertainty as it moves over to a pure paper gambling system.  I'm not sure but I believe the different settlement system was put into place in Dec of 09 in case of such an eventuality of a default.  So a Comex default might not be bullish for the paper price, it's likely to be bearish.  The gloves come off after that.

Will a system emerge where one can get physical metal?  Almost assuredly.  However the people playing the Comex game will not be hurt since can just settle up in Fun Buxs and they can get the Fun Bux from Uncle Ben and the Magic Printing Press.

Tue, 11/30/2010 - 15:43 | 765229 Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

And price of gold goes to infinity because people know they'll print whatever number they can force. And value of dollar goes away as all confidence in it's convertibility is lost.

This is the 10/10/10 cycle. Once we reach the 11/11/11 cycle the rage against the machine will be unbearable. I can barely put my fealers out without tapping into the giantest hugest rage ever seen by this planet. By the time it festers another 11 months it'll make horror movies look like disney flicks.

Tue, 11/30/2010 - 16:12 | 765345 EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

Possibly. It would also mean a mass exodus of traders from the Comex. I hear East Asia want more influence in the capital markets, I'm sure it wouldn't take long for them to set up a rival commodity exchange backed by tangible assets. Once that's done, it's another nail in the coffin for the US capital markets.

Tue, 11/30/2010 - 13:53 | 764825 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

Hard to believe GMCR is already back to 52-week highs.

Wonder which bubble is bigger?

Gold or coffee?

Tough call.

Tue, 11/30/2010 - 14:00 | 764861 Spalding_Smailes
Spalding_Smailes's picture

Buying Gold as the Dollar soars is a very risky trade ....

Tue, 11/30/2010 - 14:20 | 764933 Spitzer
Spitzer's picture

Thats what you don't understand

If gold is going up faster then the dollar is compared to other fiat, then the dollar is really not soaring at all.

Tue, 11/30/2010 - 14:40 | 764959 Spalding_Smailes
Spalding_Smailes's picture

I understand the dollar has moved from 85 - 81.50 in 5 years after 14 trillion in bailout/backstops, got it ....

Dollar is king. Everything else is in the rearview. All fiats under the heel/trance of Uncle Ben. Euro,RMB, everything.

 

Put that in your Austrian pipe and smoke it ...

Try buying gas,paying taxes,rent,cars with gold coins today .... Everyone needs/wants/must have dollars.

 

Dollar denominated debt bitch .... Dollar hegemony, global finance study it, read about it.

Tue, 11/30/2010 - 14:54 | 765044 Bay of Pigs
Bay of Pigs's picture

Fuck dude. You really don't understand USD debasement do you? Your 81USDX buys far LESS than it did 5 years ago. And your comments on gold are totally off the mark.

Tue, 11/30/2010 - 15:07 | 765078 Spalding_Smailes
Spalding_Smailes's picture

Fuck dude I have been reading comments on a dollar crash for years , all out fucking crash.

13 fucking trillion do you understand how much fucking money that is ( GDP of how many countries)

What ? the dollar is down to (81) oh myyyyyyy.

What crash ? What inflation ? Gonzo fucking lira is a chump, you dont understand.

The shadow banking/securitization market is toast, lots of debt drinking up those new dollars. Lots of new dollar denominated debt being issued every day by businesses/countries. Everyone servicing loans/debt in dollars. Trillions.

Everyone is caught in Uncle Bens web.

 

A huge bid/thurst for dollars.

Tue, 11/30/2010 - 15:12 | 765111 Bay of Pigs
Bay of Pigs's picture

I don't disagree with you on that. It is a slow death of fiat. But why the attack on real money, gold? ALL TIME highs today in Aussie and Cando dollars, the Euro and British Pound. A 27 yr high in Yen. What part of these facts do you not understand when looking through your USD rose colored glasses?

Tue, 11/30/2010 - 15:16 | 765120 Spalding_Smailes
Spalding_Smailes's picture

The dollar is used in global finance derivatives/forex trade/trade-letters of credit its global thus its always going to have a bid.

You need more dollars to rollover old debts in dollars ect .... Oil.

Tue, 11/30/2010 - 15:31 | 765184 Bay of Pigs
Bay of Pigs's picture

Yes, I understand your point but you didn't answer my question. Most people that disparage gold avoid the facts I just presented to you.

Oh, I forgot the Swiss Franc in gold is at all time highs as well.

Tue, 11/30/2010 - 18:06 | 765906 akak
akak's picture

.... (crickets, crickets) .....

 

The usual response of the gold-hating paperbugs to unassailable logic, facts and the damning history of fiat currencies screwing their holders out of their wealth and savings.

Wed, 12/01/2010 - 00:54 | 766994 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

Only the deluded or dishonest fear a "Real" measuring stick (made of Gold).

Tue, 11/30/2010 - 15:06 | 765085 qussl3
qussl3's picture

Doesnt mean you cant make mint playing the PMs.

Especially now when the market perception is that everyone is going to "print".

Negative real rates are another big PM positive.

All you need now to see a 1980 spike is stagflation, or even better - low official inflation while staples rise.

Gold and silver will probably never replace the dollar as a medium of exchange but its likely to be viewed more and more as an objective store of value.

Tue, 11/30/2010 - 15:13 | 765108 Spalding_Smailes
Spalding_Smailes's picture

We are not printing new dollars with QE 2.

 

Back in October the economic buzzwords had become “money printing” and “debt monetization”.  Of course, at the time, the Fed was initiating their policy of QE2 and you’d have been hard pressed to find someone in this country (and around the world for that matter) who wasn’t entirely convinced that the USA was about to send the dollar into some sort of death spiral.  QE2 was about to set off a round of inflation that would make Zimbabwe look like a cakewalk.  And then something odd happened – the dollar rallied as QE2 set sail and hasn’t looked back since.

Just days before the dollar rally started I said the market was excessively confident in the Fed’s ability to create inflation and misinterpreting the impacts of QE2:

“If my theories prove correct it is likely that the dollar is well oversold and equities have become overextended on false hopes of a Fed driven economic recovery.  This means the market is excessively concerned about inflation and we are likely to move closer towards our economic reality of disinflation with a higher risk of deflation than high inflation.   If this is correct it means there is a fairly sizable air pocket beneath risk assets currently. Warren Buffett once said it is better to be greedy when others are fearful and fearful when others are greedy.  I am currently fearful.”

Since then we’ve seen  a 7%+ move in the trade weighted dollar and the smallest 12 month increase in the history of the CPI report.  In other words, inflation remains non-existent.  For the minority who understood how QE was actually going to impact the economy this was an obvious inefficiency at work (yes Eugene Fama, you are still wrong and this was real-time evidence of it).  QE2 wasn’t inflationary and it never was going to be inflationary because it merely alters the term structure of outstanding government debt and nothing more.  It is not money printing.

This was just one more opportunity for the fear mongering hyperinflationists to latch onto something.  Even as Ben Bernanke himself explained that he was not printing money we continued to see aspiring Presidential candidates, talking heads and even bunny rabbits explain to millions how the Fed was destroying the value of the dollars in our pockets.  This was not only irresponsible, but entirely wrong.  QE2 is not inflationary in the least bit.  It does not help the US government spend in the future.  It will not cause a dollar crash.  It’s just an asset swap. It’s an unusual form of the standard monetary operations that the Federal Reserve always performs.  But monetary policy during a balance sheet recession becomes a blunt instrument.  QE2 is perhaps the most misunderstood and irrelevant policy the Fed has ever embarked upon.  Or as I prefer to call it – the greatest monetary non-event.

 

http://pragcap.com/happened-dollar-crash

Tue, 11/30/2010 - 16:23 | 765394 qussl3
qussl3's picture

Hence "print", but you miss the point.

What's important is the sheep think wheelbarrows and Zimbabwe, whether that reflects reality is unimportant.

As long as demand for physical commods PMs included remain strong even in the face of rising prices, disproportionate amounts of liquidity will chase.

Likely outcome is a self fulfilling prophecy, and it is being played otu right now.

I have absolutely no doubt that neither silver nor gold will replace fiat as a medium of exchange, but its price when measured in fiat is likely to go up rather than down.

For PM prices to drop in a sustained manner, cash must deliver a real return and trust must be restored in the securities markets.

Tue, 11/30/2010 - 16:28 | 765417 Spalding_Smailes
Spalding_Smailes's picture

Whats the size of the gold market -minus------- us govt/cb holdings, in regards to credit/debt market global... ?

Tue, 11/30/2010 - 23:23 | 766781 qussl3
qussl3's picture

Miniscule.

And precisely why the PMs have so much room to run.

We are not witnessing a run into PMs out of a desire for shiny stuff, but from a lack of trust in the paper.

Whether that fear is misplaced or not is irrelevant, as long as that is the direction the market is going I intend to ride the train.

Barring dramatic political upheaval i simply do not see how we can restore the trust in paper in the near term.

Tue, 11/30/2010 - 15:47 | 765249 Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

Paradoxical warnings really aren't working very well with you.

Tue, 11/30/2010 - 14:30 | 764966 StockWorldNews
StockWorldNews's picture

Next $USD resistance level is 83, then it will retest the past two tops around 89.  With the triple bottom formed the $USD could sail to parity with the $XEU.

How will Gold and Silver react IF the $USD makes a 30 point rally?

The excuses present for the reason gold and silver will go ballistic are similar to pump and dumps on penny stocks.

However, I am a long term believer in Gold/Silver and would love to buy in on a sale if the $Gold H&S Pattern falls below the 1320 support and enters a new cyclical bear

 

Tue, 11/30/2010 - 14:45 | 765015 bbtrader
bbtrader's picture

Good eyes - a forming Hd&Sh Top with gold with today forming a R-Sh.  And the DX has formed a massive bullish reversal bar on the monthly, courtesy of Europe and China.

So December $146 calls, that's pretty gutsy indeed, but in early May gold rallied along with the DX, so who's to say it won't happen again.

If it falls then gold will see a nice bid in the 1275 area.

Tue, 11/30/2010 - 14:52 | 765040 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

How will Gold and Silver react IF the $USD makes a 30 point rally?

The word "decoupling" comes to mind. If DXY runs 30 pts, then the wheels are really falling off and the real value of PMs as a safe haven comes to the forefront. Even if the price stays flat in dollars, it will still be climbing rapidly in other currencies, like the Euro today, where it hit a new all time high of 1064.

Tue, 11/30/2010 - 15:30 | 765175 DosZap
DosZap's picture

I do not think it matter one whit where the USD level is.

The people pushing this market, have figured out the USD is shit, and there is no saftey in any currency.

We are seeing a flight to safety,period.

If the USD goes up, I see Gld/Slvr following it up, or more likely the USD following REAL money.

I am like you, but lets be realistic, with the entire planets economic systems on full tilt, NO way I see the market makers bailing on PM's to the point of dropping any where close to a $1k again.(in my dreams)

There is no way for the current climate to change to cause it to happen.

We are headed to $2k+ gold easy.Barring a miracle from above.

People have/are losing their Confidence in paper,anyones paper.

Even a rise in interest rates,on a falling currency is still a loss.

What the index says, means shit, its outstanding DEBT that is the killer.

If the economy did a 180, maybe the weak hands shake out.

The ETF asses will for sure.

Tue, 11/30/2010 - 14:05 | 764876 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Coffee stored in the fridge will stay fresh for a little while at least.

;)

Tue, 11/30/2010 - 14:15 | 764905 Turd Ferguson
Turd Ferguson's picture

Yah, whole bean is the only way to go.

Tue, 11/30/2010 - 14:21 | 764926 Spalding_Smailes
Spalding_Smailes's picture

Nice blog.

How is the new biz going ? Paint ? Whats the start up date.. man your kids are lucky, ice cream every night !

Tue, 11/30/2010 - 14:19 | 764927 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

And even then, I would rather have a silver coin then 3 lbs of coffee.

Tue, 11/30/2010 - 14:32 | 764975 StockWorldNews
StockWorldNews's picture

whole bean coffee left overs in the fridge, put in the microwave the next morning for 55 seconds is the best

Tue, 11/30/2010 - 15:49 | 765258 ruffian
ruffian's picture

another swing and a miss...it's fiat money that has been in a bubble....look beyond your limited experience....you are a product...not a critical thinker

Tue, 11/30/2010 - 13:54 | 764828 Dismal Scientist
Dismal Scientist's picture

Don't forget Uranium as an option to complement your PM's

Tue, 11/30/2010 - 14:00 | 764859 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Depleted uranium?

Tue, 11/30/2010 - 18:27 | 766010 New_Meat
New_Meat's picture

DU for the CANDUs, the cream for other uses. - Ned

Tue, 11/30/2010 - 13:59 | 764852 Xibalba
Xibalba's picture

wouldn't mind a $60 move in silver.....

Tue, 11/30/2010 - 14:15 | 764907 CD
CD's picture

Check the comments on the original Wikileaks post/thread:

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/wikileaks-next-target-big-us-bank#comme...

Tue, 11/30/2010 - 14:03 | 764872 Judy Garland
Judy Garland's picture

"In other words, specs are betting that gold will move $60 higher in the next three weeks."

Am I missing something, or would a $60 move still leave GLD well below the equivalent GLD 145 strike?  GLD's at 135.  It needs to go up 10, which is more like $100, right?

Tue, 11/30/2010 - 18:29 | 766015 New_Meat
New_Meat's picture

probably playing on improving delta and not hold to expiration.  they are specs

Tue, 11/30/2010 - 14:04 | 764875 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

The Evil Empire is trying to sell 'em off.  The move is started, as always, when a large buy order is flashed at platinum only to be pulled.  The sell side pull creates an awkward staright up gain in platinum, followed by a large loss (once the bid is pulled).  Silver and gold usually fall on this move.

Asia has made this move every night for many moons.

The reason I bring it up today is because I am not sure if it is going to work, and I think gold and silver will catch.  The physical squeeze on gold has been on forever as far as I am concered, but with people now piling into the infinately small silver market, well, JPM is outta bullets to say the least.

Y'all know what it is!

BUY SILVER!

Tue, 11/30/2010 - 15:02 | 765064 Harry Hood
Harry Hood's picture

Are uncirculated silver american eagles a good way to hold silver? Are these considered "verified" if I ever needed to use them to barter? I can get them from an acquaintance for $30 a piece.

Tue, 11/30/2010 - 15:11 | 765104 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Yes and yes.

Tue, 11/30/2010 - 14:07 | 764880 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

JPM is not going under.

It is the No. 1 Fed-sponsored, TBTB-controlled, blue blood-connected entity in the U.S.

And, they are too big to fail.

Mark that down.

Tue, 11/30/2010 - 14:16 | 764914 ZeroPower
ZeroPower's picture

Agree. Lot's of wishful thinking here from people who don't realize why GS, JPM, et al can't fail.

Tue, 11/30/2010 - 14:19 | 764928 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Bear Sterns and Lehman were also deemed unsinkable, just like the Titanic.

Tue, 11/30/2010 - 14:27 | 764957 Spitzer
Spitzer's picture

The Soviet Union is the best comparison because they had the huge army that the perma-TBTF-dollar-bulls think will be there to save everything.

Tue, 11/30/2010 - 14:46 | 765022 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Spitzer, longer term of course you are right.

But, I'll go with Robot on the TBTFs.  They will not go under.  They will be bailed out as much as is necessary.

That means inflation, big time, sooner or later.

Tue, 11/30/2010 - 14:47 | 765026 ZeroPower
ZeroPower's picture

Bear and Lehman removed from the picture further monopolized the current players leaving them to control even more than they previously did.

They are sinkable, just not with the same event (getting shorted to the point of a cheap takeover/bankruptcy). We've seen this with TARP for the remaining banks and with countries over in Eu. Nothing can fail anymore, nothing. Remove market rationality from your response and i attest you will have a hard time replying 'they will fail, tomorrow!11'

Tue, 11/30/2010 - 16:53 | 765545 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Yes and the unsinkable Titanic was removed to make more passage room for Queen Lines, I know...

Tue, 11/30/2010 - 14:18 | 764916 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

They are shorting silver they do not have with 100 to 1 leverage and hundreds of thousands of people have decided to corner the physical silver bullion market.  Either their shorts get burned, or they pull them, take a loss, and go long PMs.  If they get burned and ask for another bailout, there will be riots.  If they move to the other side of the trade, the FIAT ponzi is done.  You do not understand, this is not a situation they can handle.  This is lose lose for them.

Reality trumps all you see.

Tue, 11/30/2010 - 14:20 | 764931 Shameful
Shameful's picture

Or they let the Comex bust and paper it out.  When JPM is free from the pretense of having to find metal what is to stop them from jackhammering the paper price of the metals into the floor?  If a gun was held to their head and they had to come up with the metal I would agree, but they don't.  The next step is to take the Comex into a pure paper trading vehicle and then the infinite funding JPM has access to will let them dominate the market since there will be no delivery.

Tue, 11/30/2010 - 14:45 | 764988 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Paper it out?  What does that even mean?

The next step is to take the Comex into a pure paper trading vehicle and then the infinite funding JPM has access to will let them dominate the market since there will be no delivery.

And Blackhawk Ben could also hold the interest rate below zero, while Timmah the Tick maintains strong dollar policy.  While we are at it, the US will stay involved in Iraq and Af/Pak, and go to war with NK and Iran.

We have the understanding now that at least silver is a way to crash JPM, but more importantly, silver is the best (along with the other PMs) store of wealth and fungible method of trade.  Once we have the silver, the war is over.  If JPM wishes to sit on the battlefield afterwards that is fine.  We do not need an admission of defeat, we only need a way to create a system without fascist banking.  We are here for our monie, we are here for the silver.  Once we have that, nothing matters.  JPM could try and dictate terms, but they have no power.  And as for the US gov, the dollar holds weight because of its inverse relationship with silver and gold and oil.  Taking delivery of silver and PMs will crush the FIAT ponzi.  If the fascists are somehow able to manipulate the price long enough, then once peak oil hits, which it may already have, the military will be useless.  The game is nearly up the question is where will you be when it is finished.

Tue, 11/30/2010 - 14:46 | 765023 Shameful
Shameful's picture

I'm all in on the metals, but you don't understand the Comex play/default for JPM is not harmful, they never have to cover.  Let us assume they can't get the metal and are forced to default or cover with paper.  Well the rules allow them to kick up shares of SLV.  Well SLV does not allow for deliver if memory serves.  So lets look at the life cycle.

1.  Buyer goes long on Comex

2.  Buyer "wins" and price goes up, he stands for delivery.

3.  JPM hands buyer SLV shares

4.  Buyer goes to SLV for delivery, can't deliver.  Buyer sells shares for fiat.

5.  Buyer goes long on Comex?

See the system is structured that they can at will flip a switch and not care about the physical price of gold or silver.  Once the paper and physical price are no longer related the paper price can and will move at the will of the major players.

Sure going down this path is not good for them, because it shows how late in the game things are.  If you think gold bugs are nutty now wait till it's impossible to get physical!  However in now way is JPM in danger of going under because of it.  All a default on the Comex shows is that the big boys are no longer willing to spit up metal to us little people.  It shows that they are digging in for the next phase of the game as well, which means it's close when it happens.

Tue, 11/30/2010 - 14:50 | 765036 apberusdisvet
apberusdisvet's picture

The problem with your thought is that the paper holders of the ponzis can easily switch to Sprott if they still want paper.

Tue, 11/30/2010 - 15:01 | 765063 Shameful
Shameful's picture

Where is Sprott going to get Physical? :)

I'm talking about a complete take down of the market pricing structure by disconnecting the paper trading price with any claim on the underlying physical asset.  So Sprott would have the same problem as the rest of us trying to get physical off the paper market.  We could buy as much paper as we want, it just won't be tradable directly for physical.  A new physical pricing structure would have to be established that did not allow for a cash or ETF cop out.

Tue, 11/30/2010 - 15:21 | 765142 Croesus
Croesus's picture

ETF's are Bullshit anyway. . . . . .how many times has the US Mint suspended production of ASE's because they needed physical gold/silver? 

On one occasion, GLD supposedly purchased a large amount of gold, while the US Mint had a freeze on production.

How can Wall St. purchase product that the Government can't?

I'm wiling to bet that most ETF's are loaded to the gills with OTC Derivatives, and not ACTUAL physical metals. Look at the opacity in their custodial arrangements.

They're a joke.

Tue, 11/30/2010 - 15:30 | 765172 Shameful
Shameful's picture

Could not agree more.  It's a big paper game waiting to explode.  My whole argument in this is the big boys engineered a legal way out.  It might leave the system and the dollar in a pile of smoking rubble but the big players will survive impact.

Wed, 12/01/2010 - 01:08 | 767032 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

Sorry, but if this same situation existed in Wheat, no one would find it acceptable to use paper to make bread.  Someone's head is gonna get handed to them!

Tue, 11/30/2010 - 15:00 | 765060 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

I will disagree with you.

Tue, 11/30/2010 - 15:22 | 765147 Croesus
Croesus's picture

Mr. Jimi:

Disagreeing with me, or with Shameful ?

Tue, 11/30/2010 - 15:31 | 765160 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Shameful.

and Mr. Jimi...I like that!

The Rolling Stones - You Can't Always Get What You Want (Live 1969)(The Flying Dutchman):

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wxkdmL3iMCY

Tue, 11/30/2010 - 15:07 | 765091 Harry Hood
Harry Hood's picture

Are uncirculated silver american eagles a good way to hold silver? Are these considered "verified" if I ever needed to use them to barter? I can get them from an acquaintance for $30 a piece.

Tue, 11/30/2010 - 15:55 | 765273 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

All the silver I hold is 1 oz Silver Eagles.

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