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Surge Of Inexplicable After Hours Selling Takes Gold Volatility Index To All Time Low
In addition to the rout in the ES, VIX and GC which we pointed out earlier, there were some additional fireworks behind the scenes in today's after hours session. The CBOE Gold Volatility Index, the ^GVZ plunged by the most in over a year, as the index hit an all time low of 15.92 without the underlying making much of a notable move. The most curious aspect of the trade was that the entire dump occured in the AH session. Many were left scratching their heads over what caused this monstrous unwind in long vol positions: was this the unwind of a massive long ES/short GC arb? We don't know, although if rumors that a major fund is planning to stand for delivery of Dec gold turn out to be true, then obviously someone got confirmation today. Keep a close eye out on the GVZ. Should this price level persist on Monday, then the front futures contract will likely surge.
A trader whom we managed to reach late in the day had this to say on this stunning move:
Typical course of action for HFT and other commodity pranksters is to shake out new contract holders. They did it with absolute gusto today, shorting thousand of contracts into thin markets. That didn't work. Gold held up. Now, taking into account that peripheral EU spreads are hitting new highs, hedge funds are getting redemption requests etc, why would you go home long ES and short GC? So what they did is they sold ES into and after the close. After that ES/SPY close they can't run these 'start arb' HFT strategies any more that go long S&P and short Gold as well. Gold's closing time is 1:45pm. They had to cover shorts.
If the short covering in paper persists, perhaps the world won't even need the Krieger/Keiser physical PM campaign to destroy Blythe Masters.
And a bonus observation of the gold curve is the Gold February contract, where in the last minute someone bought 2k contracts, which represents 200,000 ounces or about $272MM worth of gold. Not a bad purchase for the last trade on the slowest day of the year.
As usual, we welcome our readers' perspectives on this largely unexpected move.
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What tripped up the Nevada business man is this: He didn't keep the VALUE of the coins consistent. He abused the spread between the face value and the metal value. This is illegal for us peasants. So he went to jail.
Don't forget that it is perfectly legal for the banks though. They sell silver coins at MELT VALUE not FACE VALUE. But for them it's legal and they don't go to jail.
So I should start a bank!
Yup, and the contractor that tried it had neither withheld the appropriate taxes for the price oof those paid with the physical gold nor had they reported the physical price they held as income. The IRS spanked them to the tune of 20 years at a Federal penitentiary, IIRC.
As it was in our Lord's time, so it is in ours - the government will take what he thinks is his and you'll just have to deal with it.
Funny how theft is only "legal" when you have lots and lots of guns, isn't it?
Or a legal tender law and a an inkjet.
Matt 22:17-21
Watch LD. It's what they're hiding trans-shipped gold in. Also makes for a great bunker paint additive to thwart out those pesky silent sound (brain) waves.
http://www.raven1.net/silsoun2.htm
wrong spot for comment
Gold is leading the DOW. Don't miss Monday. Disclaimer: I sold my double short gold today.
Robot cannot post the 10-year gold chart because he is pussy-whipped for an answer to that data.
Looks like an Internet stock in 1999.
Daaaaaamn. You... showed.... him...
not really. He had an 'answer' for the data, but it wasn't the right one.
Obviously, for gold to have a chart like that, our currency must look like the inverse.
Does anyone know which political party was in control of the White House during this total annihilation of our wallet?
We got it dumbass... The dems will save us by passing more laws and a new war on poverty.. Thanks, now go away..
exactly. when a Republican finally becomes President again, hopefully this idiot will begin to understand our Presidents, Obummer included, are puppet fools, and that it is our debt-based monetary system, fractional reserve counterfeiting, and fiat paper money with no asset-backing that is ever-rapidly destroying all wealth and opportunity in America and siphoning it upwards to a handful of traitors who view us as livestock in a global game of feudalism.
...not exactly what our ancestors spilt blood for in the Revolutionary War.
he junks, yet cannot explain why.
When QCOM ran to $250, the experts all said it was a $1000 stock. Then reality intervened.
Excuse me Rogerwilco; AKA Mr. Expert.
Not only will QCOM be a $1,000 stock but after QE4 & TARP 2 it will be a $2,000 stock!
The economy is back baby! BOOH-YA!!!
You don't know shit except for some philosophical view of things, if you were there, with long positions you'd know it ran to $800 on Jan 3rd, prior to the split.
And not some bullshit chart and split adjustments, that you read about, sorry nothing personal.
It never made it to $1,000 but it got close to $800 before a 4:1 split. There was one day in which the stock was up $150 (Dec 1998 or 1999) and I think it was trading around $650 at that point.
OMG Robo - hey I freely admit I ain't the sharpest knife in the drawer, and can't hold a candle to brqains on this site but geeeeee whizzzzzzz, Mondo, gimme a break! You gonna show me a 10-year & tell me it's equiv. to a prior 18 MONTH-LONG mania? (maybe less than 18 mo..7 mo?). Damn, I ain't that stoopid.......
lmao
Wooo HOOO he did it!!!!
"Looks like an Internet stock in 1999."
Or the stairway to the Guillotine.
GO massivly short. Buy puts and short many shares of GLD, GDX,
others to short.
Report back.
No, whats on the way to the G is our country, and the USD.
It's already there, the chicken is running around the yard w/no head, and just doesn't know it missing YET.
Kind of like the G.Your brain has enough Oxy for you to see whats going down, for about 30 seconds.Now thats some rude shit.
but the similarities end there, don't they?
It looks like it will go like a rocket.
Do insurance premiums rise if a storm is approaching? The storm may hit or it may not but you dont want to be caught without insurance. This is where I think you have consistently missed the point. Gold is an investment only so far as one would consider insurance an investment. The point is that still very few have taken out insurance on their "diversified" paper assets. If even a reasonable minority of investors take out a 3% insurance policy on their paper assets, there will not be enough "insurance" available (at current prices). Those that want to aquire insurance badly enough will have to coax others that already have it to go without. As a possible storm approaches this will require higher and higher premiums. What you are seeing in this chart is a sharp rise in insurance premiums on financial assets. I'll be if you looked at a graph of your health, auto or home insurance premiums they would look similar.
a very good explanation. I am not a big fan of Insurance usually but in this case it is worth having some.
one further point...availability of home, auto and health insurance is unlimited as premiums and claims are denominated in unlimited fiat. Insurance on financial assets (physical gold) is in extremely limited absolute supply. Price increases on the first 3 examples are determined purely by oligarchal dictate. Insurance on financial assets (physical gold) is determined purely on S & D. This is why paper and physical gold prices will likely go their separate ways...and soon
I think your point about Gold as an Insurance against fiat currencies is obviously proven by the price of Gold going up as the currencies are debased.
The insurance analogy works if you can collect on the policy. Read Robo's comment above: "The Plutocrats always win". They will tax the hell out of windfall profits on gold or anything else for that matter. It's easy for them to characterize the tiny faction of gold bugs as "hoarders" or "domestic extremists", and you'll get no sympathy or support from the dumb masses. Toss in a reward or bounty and your good neighbors will turn you in.
firstly that conjecture, defeatist and plainly wrong.....american, french, russian revolutions? fall of the soviet union? peaceful revolution against marcos in Phillipines? Iranian revolution against the shah. plutocrats always win.....what drivel !! If the plutocrats win it will be yours and robot traders resignation that will be the cause !!
Revolution? OK, let's have a dandy. In the American Revolution only 1/3 of the people supported the rebels. Armies need money, lots of it, and your gold will come in handy -- now hand it over, ALL of it! See how that works, one side will tax and/or confiscate it, and the other side will demand you turn it over to prove your loyalty. Nice choices, no?
The only way I can see gold paying off is if you can hide it somewhere far away from the coming shit storms. the wealthy and powerful (those plutocrats) did this a long time ago.
still this is just your opinion on how things will pan out. Just one of many possible outcomes. I repeat and ask you personally. Insurance doesn not always pay out. Insurance co's look for any way not to pay. Does this mean you dont have any? Because it may not pay out? What is the difference with insurance on your financial assets insure by a premium payed in physical gold? You might get paid, might not. If you say to me Ruffian..I dont have any insurance on my health, auto or home becuase they might not pay, then your arguemnet on gold has merit. If you have insurance on these other things then you are being inconsistent.
So, basically they can tax everything so may as well put a bullet in your head today.
Then again, real assets have worked out pretty well in most collapsed societies...who am I to believe, history, or you idiots?
ya keep saying "real assets" what are they? PS, I can guess most: land, house(s), guns, etc etc NOW, that's sweet for you big dogs that have some, but for the chumps like me (ain't got room in my back yard, which I don't even own, for 10 bbl oil)...what the FUCK am I supposed to do? Hold on securely to that small stack of Frankins I have? Or buy some coin?
do you play the lottery? take the lottery $'s and buy a 1 ounce gold coin. You can thank me later
trav, if you are going to put a bullet in your head, can you please take David Rockefeller with you before you go?
I have a suggestion to add to that list, if I might
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pjOW2fwyMRs
do healthcare, auto and home insurers always pay out? If not does that mean we shouldn't have any?
I own some PMs, but I don't consider them an investment or believe for a minute they can "insure" my other physical assets.
terminology is very important here. I said that physical gold was insuring your "paper assets" not physical. I am not an oracle. I do not know if paper assets will be worthless or worth much more in future. But I am confident, never sure 100%, that IF and that is a big if, paper assets fail, PM's having no counterparty risk and long history of acceptance as currency have a very good chance of providing me with the ability to aquire the necessities. That is insurance. Unlike premiums of other types of insurance. The premium has no risidual value. At least the physical gold premium if the insurance is not necessary has some residual value
Paper assets acquire value only in a functioning market system with buyers, sellers, and regulated price discovery mechanisms. Take any of those away and the value becomes questionable.
Gold (or other PMs) are no different. What is the value of a Krugerand when you're surrounded by five armed guys and they all want it? Are you going to hold an auction to determine its value? LOL
I do not mean to be vulgar but what is your, wife, children, parents, home, car, paper money...anything you value, worth if you are surrounded by 6 armed men? what is your point? This now has nothing to do with gold. Anything that you have of value is at risk. So you should have no PM's, no family, no nothing if this is your fear/outlook...... wow !
My point is that shiny bits of metal have value only if others allow that value and respect your ownership. Many on ZH claim their PMs will get them through the aftermath of the collapse of fiat markets, a time when "paper" assets become toilet paper.
Both of my parents survived WWII. My father was a teenager slogging through jungles in New Guinea, and my mother was dodging phosphorous bombs dropped by the RAF in their night raids on Germany. They both understood what it takes to survive in a world gone mad. Gold was not big on their list of essentials or priorities.
you are looking for certainty...that does not exist. There are only probabilities. Having all your assets in paper you are by definition certain that paper wil be fine. By having some % in PM's you aknowledging that there is uncertainty and hedging your bets. Here are some stats to help weigh the probabilities. Every fiat currency in history has failed. PM's have been money good since the dawn of mankind. Not saying that th $ wont last and that gold isn't a relic. Just saying I'm not sure so having both is a good idea. You keep going on about how do we know...how do we know.. shiny, this that....WE DONT !!! thats why we have INSURANCE !! For gold bugs they have insurance by holding some $'s in their vast gold stores....for non goldies we have some gold amonst our store of $'s..what is not to get here?
there is a difference between the end of socoiety and the end of a monetary system they are not NECESSARILY synonymous. Conversion to a new system can come without anarchy. I think you are viewing that both go hand in hand. They do not........ necessarily
tell that to the refugees, who got out, because they had some gold
forget it.
If I recall correctly...
Post a chart of YHOO in that time.
Also, please post a chart of gold, ca. 1983. Thanks.
Hey Robot, I asked for the Dow/Gold ten year chart. And no, this doesn't even come close to the tech stocks of 1999. Why are you so dishonest when it comes to charting gold? WTF is your problem with it anyway?
Except most internet companies were fake start ups jumping on the trend band wagon. Gold is real and moves ahead of the crowds.
Except it's a ten year chart, you blithering moron.
Next week is going to be very, very fun.
Up or down? The open interest of Dec contract for silver stood at 28268 on Nov 24. That means 141,340,000 ounces of silver must be delivered. More than the total silver stock at Comex. Silver was nuked today. The price didn't recover like gold near the end of the day. One possibility is JPM supplied more naked shorts to knock down the size of the Dec contract but couldn't covered them...Who knows.
You must follow the Turd!
http://www.tfmetalsreport.blogspot.com/
Yo Rocky. China's 11-25-10 call for the US to sell some gold reserves instead of printing dollars....
http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aD0_TS95f.ok
Followed by an attempted gold takedown on light volumn Friday 11-26-10 met by heavy buying at $1350. Guess who was buying? China/SE Asia perhaps?
....and, discussion of 'shaking the weak hands from gold tree' should not exclude soverigns....ie; Portugal and other PIIGS.
China is maintaining support for gold ~ $1350 = Fed is supporting bullion bank shorters = gold drifts marginally lower = China (and others) buy physical and stand for delivery on dips = Fed attempts to jack stocks with POMOs = gold moves up....rinse and repeat. Plus QE announcement(s) are like throwing gas onto a raging inferno.
Notice that China has not stepped in to offer bail outs to the PIIGS except in a small way (Greek shipbuilding IIRC). Will PIGGS sell their physical gold to prop up their poor economies? I doubt it, but if they do China will be buying, imo. The 'barbarous relic' has certainly captured the spotlight recently, along with silver.
In addition, Shanghai and Viet Nam are paying well over spot for physical now. Very telling that the old cultures plus those that have suffered through recent episodes of hyperinflation realize that real money is not paper.
I agree with other posters about next week.... it should be interesting.
Greece still has an ace up its sleeve with some substantial gold holdings. Assuming, of course, that the "reported" numbers are good and not some equivalent to BLS crap.
Naked shorting is not illegal in the commodities exchange. In fact, it is the premise of the market. It first began so that farmers could lock in a crop price before they planted.
http://www.turtletrader.com/beginners_report.pdf
Sure that naked shorts are perfectly legal. Blythe launched the attack because the open interest of the DEC SI was rather lofty. It stood at 28000+ on Nov 24. If you go back, you will find on the day before the Thanksgiving Day of 2009, the open interest of the corresponding contract was merely 10000. I wonder why silver didn't recover near the end of the day like gold and crude oil.
If it breaks 1385 wednesday it's going to be hell in a handbasket for governments.
hey happy thanks, darling†
ELABORATE MORE PLEASE..YOU SEE WHAT EXACTLY NEXT WEEK..AND DO YOU SEE GOLD AND SILVER GOING UP IF THE MARKET CRASHES..AND HOW ABOUT THE MINING STOCKS FOR THE 2 METALS..
WHY do they need TSA body scanners at all airports NOW - THIS WEEK? It's because SOMETHING STINKY is coming down - immanently.
There really is nothing such as "coincidence".
Makes one think eh! Can you see all the pieces being moved into position on the chess board? How close to endgame is the real question though.
Eurozone, TSA grope/irradiate border controls, NORK funny buisness, FBI raids on hedge funds etc.
Any of these hedge funds standing for physical deliver? They couldn't take delivery if their assets get frozen.
Just wondering....
Right now the paper market is to easy to screw with because it can be controlled with derivatives and leverage. There are also layers of protection such as clearing future contracts with shares of GLD or SLV. I should say semi controlled because they are loosing control of it. Every time they push the paper price down people are buying physical with both hands and they are having trouble finding the physical.
Siver supplies seem to have been decimated over the last 30 years because the price was held artificially low for so long. Someone has been selling alot of metal via shorts at a verty cheap price. Silver is the wonder metal in industry and has all sorts of great uses. Ad it to anything and that thing becomes bacteriacidal. There may be a few as 1Billion ounces above ground.
My point is don't worry about the day to day silver and gold price. BUT every time it drops call your sources and see if they have anything nice to sell you. Like Silver eagles, or Nice rounds, or nice bars, or a Philharmonic or two.
On the 18th, both the SLV and the GLD opened with a huge gap up. does anyone know if this has anything to do with the drop?
There is no gap. Gold trades almost 24 hours a day.
where would gold be at if there was no Qe2?
Probably a lot higher. A large portion of that QEII went to SHORTING THE PRICE OF COMMODITIES especially gold and more especially SILVER!
That's where I placed my vote the other day in the POMO Poll.
I think The BIG guys want to play the Gold's 13 1/2 month cycle, so driving gold down, anticipating they can buy the dip. Any dip in the Gold should be brought. For now, I have GDX 58 puts for Jan, will have to see how it will play out on Monday and take necessary action.
Also, $BPGDM RSI stays at ~52 as per http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$BPGDM, if it turns upwards, it is supposed to be a buy signal, if it turns downwards, then wise to wait until it goes below 30 and turns upwards.
Ah hell, it is the North Koreans jacking with the GVI through Chinese intermediaries just to piss off western govs who see a rise in gold prices as an affront to their fiat authority.
What we all need to see and verify is the GOLD in the U.S. Treasury and related vaults which the U.S. Gov't own's.
When will we see it?
Well....we have a lot, according to the powers-that-be...we also are the largest storage holder of foreign gold in the world...a lot of countries store their gold with the Federal Reserve....guess we could confiscate that...hmmmmm.
26,000 Tons if the #'s can be believed.(Last # I read).
Several Soverigns removed theirs from the NYC storage a while back.( Built their own vaults, lack of trust huh?).
I want to see the Supposed 8100 Tons we supposedly have.My $$ says BS.
TURD..SINCE YOU SEEM TO BE USUALLY SPOT ON...WHAT DO YOU SEE IN THE GOLD AND SILVER MARKETS FOR NEXT WEEK...AND DO YOU SEE GOLD AND SILVER DROPPING THIS TIME IF THE MARKETS CRASH...AND HOW ABOU THE MINING STOCKS..
caps lock is cruise control for cool
I was in caps-lock for a few moments in time, until I finally understood that nobody listened to me in either upper or lower case.
What? Did you say something?
lol, RR -thanks.
The Turd has probaby gone night-night, don't develop a complex over it.
Daniel 5:25–28
I'm far from religious in any way, but herein is an important lesson:
Mene Mene Tekel Peres
All units of currency in the ancient world, all having a passive verb association. Mina, Shekel, Half Mina.
Mina: To Count. "Your days are numbered"
Shekel: To Weigh " You have been weighed in the balance and found wanting"
Half Mina: To Divide "Your kingdom is divided and cannot stand"
The fate of those who count twice their weight on the scale cannot continue, and through their own actions they cause their own demise. The people will stand only so long before numbering the days of those who rule them, and they will divide the remainder in a new way.
The writing is on the wall.
Read Ecclesiastes. There really is nothing new under the sun.
Funny how such an old book can be so relevant isn't it!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wZpaNJqF4po
Fascinating passage and post. Not particularly religious myself, but came across minas just this morning at Luke 19:11-27 (Parable of Money Usage). Cf. Matt 25:14-30 (Parable of the Talents). Interestingly, there was more action in minas than in talents. Disclosure: long #79.
Yes,
Mene Mene Tekel Upharshin is aprapos
Who are the Medes & Persians this time?.
None of this data is going to mean shit for months. Those lying bastards will try to cover this up till spring.
volatility going down = asset price going up massively. Classic relationship that we saw with the VIX, and the ES crash of 2008.
Whats the score here Turd.Far as I am concerned this will be paper manipulation in some form.The amount of physical out there is either not for sale,already sold or too valuable to be sold,with paper at 100/1 against physical it seems the market is being taken down,to save the banks from catastrophic losses or imminent very bad news (say Spain and Portugal and maybe Italy) and therefore when Gold and Silver shoots next week it is harder to reach recent record prices.One thing is certain a great dip to buy more physical in.
Uh, did anyone think that maybe old China purchased the contracts in anticipation of them allowing the nut jub in North Korea to create more mischief? I would double my long positions if I had that inside info as the USD would skyrocket as well as gold.
Plus shorting the Yen would be an easy money maker.
oops.
I love the brain surgeons around here junking people trying to express an opinion. Well smartasses bring soemthing to the table or fuck off.
Thanks Robo for expressing your ideas
Gold's going to 2000 fucking dollars and you that believe I'm full of shit will be licking my fucking boots for a job and bread. At 2000 bucks governments around the world will do something to stop the rise (i.e. Gold standard, legislation, body scanners int eh grocery store, junk checks at schools, etc)
How's that for prescience and expression of an idea
Fucking doornobs go to CNBC and use their blog ya dicks and get lost.
..er, not that good actually.. D minus.
I think I agree with you but I'm really not sure
As the IMF and most of the governments (all of the western ones) have tonnes of gold, why, pray tell, would they care if it appreciated in value relative to the currencies in which their sovereign debts are denominated?
The biggest knob here is you, skibum.
it seems from golds price action that govts have taken to agreeing with you. They have abandoned the "bullion banks" in their suppression. The bullion banks exist by peddling paper. They have been set adrift by the CB's and are now on their own to try to put the genie back in the bottle.
Yes, governments and central banks have tons of gold. But they have millions times more fiat-debt paper of various kinds.
Therefore, when they lower or hold-down the price of gold and silver, the purchasing power of their fiat debt paper is improved vastly more than their losses in gold and silver.
Do the math... then this is obvious. It's all about faking the world into believing their fiat debt toilet paper is viable.
The only thing negative about price of Gold is that main street people are talking about it as a good investment. That sounds like if the Cartel running the markets have got the fish in the net again, and are about to pull their catch.
It looks like they will make dollar stronger too, and QE2 is already forgotten...
It wont change a thing for the personal belief that its good to have some gold hidden safely somewhere where you can get to walking. Or that it is best to trade only if you feel exceptionally lucky.
.
I'm not so sure if the macroeconomic fundamentals, mass psychology, or the technicals support higher prices in gold.
The USD looks poised to do a major rocket shot.
I've been dealing with this in depth for the last few weeks on TF. (Mostly in Setups, Targets and Failures in Gold Contrib, but also in the open Technical forum - here's my latest update: http://tickerforum.org/akcs-www?singlepost=2283745 ).
Bulls make money, bears make money, and pigs get slaughtered. Don't ever forget it.
Okay hotshot. So short gold, go long USD. Come back and tell us how that worked out in a few months.
BTW, how does having endless trillions in deficits and unfunded liabilites support your USD Rubinesque thesis anyway?
I agree completely, I've said over and over the fundamentals don't support the high price of gold. Of course I said this when gold was 800, but if I keep just repeating the same phrase I will be right one day, you just watch. And in the meantime some poor shmuch will be deceived by my retarded logic and not buy gold, which after all is what I get paid for! Thanks Jamie!
It's time to play Name That Weasal!
Who said in March 2009:
Falling central bank sales "might put a floor of some kind under gold, near $500 or so."
A. Mark Hulbert
B. Me
C. Peter Cohan
D. The Ben Bernank
E. Robotrader
There was a very large sale, or rather lease, of gold. Most likely to Russia, China, or Brazil, and maybe a country like Japan or England.
This is a desperate move to put stability in the currencies. Now that volatility is low in the gold market there should be a major move up during the next week. Equities should ride the wave up. The dollar may not break 80.5, its near term resistence level.
The new trade to consider is USD-->RUBLE-->YUAN. I think the YUAN/RUBLE trade soon creates a vortex of force fed FIAT that pulls the currencies to the apex point in the global flush down the toilet.
Lord, what is that, like a forty-pip spread?
I could be wrong, but I think a lot of monie will pour from dollars into China via Russia. The Russian oilgarchs are looking to invest while the dollar still has value, and it would appear that China is on the sales block.
Last time they pulled this after-hour ramp it was to the buyside..And man did they take the market up. I would expect a huge down opening on Monday(-189) with the Cramer candies taking the worse beating.. Ever look at a old chart on PCLN, AAPL, Amzn or TASR...when the sellers showed up...?? looks very much like that road Steve McQueen drove down in Bullet.
Perhaps one of the many Rothschild cousins woke up late from a hangover and had to scramble to put on his short position right near and after the close so as to be positioned for the "Great Kibosh" on Monday. Being versed in Esoterica - in his foggy haze he saw Cabruso Cabrera pop a woody on air -- the illuminati's signal to kill the market.
No one can kill this market, they may drive it down, I PRAY they do for a few days, weeks.
A 2/300.00 drop would make my year.
VIX is down on inside information delivered to those who know that there is a move afoot to force cessation in (paper) gold trading on regulated markets.
Count on it. Physical matters, but the governments will try to do anything they can to make it illegal to trade for anything else. Silver too.
It won't work, of course, for long.
Keep buying.