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Surging Implied Correlation Tells An Ominous Tale
Over the last 3 days implied correlation has surged back to extreme levels as professional investors once again see rising correlation throughout 2010 - traditionally seen as an alternative reading to the VIX as a market crash predictor. With the VIX still sustained at artificially low levels, keep a close eye on this indicator.
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Keep us updated on the magical SPY orders from heaven. They should be arriving any moment.
Fast sto has bottomed out earlier this morning. I'd suspect a bounce in the near term toward previous support before another leg down happens.
Thanks for the heads-up on this. Added to my watch list. Daily chart suggests an indecision doji at present.
i saw on bloomberg that feingold is going to vote against helicopter ben, you need to run a story on that, keep a running tab on who is for the people and who is against the people
The great irony of course is that Kohn is worse than bernankle. Thought QE1 was big wait until John take the helm.
Kohn would only act as a seat warmer if Bernanke's term expired w/o reconfirmed
Second that!!
For/Against table and tally will be great ...
Oh my if he is not confirmed it calls for champagne bottle .. get set fo ..
Second that!!
For/Against table and tally will be great ...
Oh my if he is not confirmed it calls for champagne bottle .. get set go ..
Feingold also voted against TARP and against the war (a lone voice at that time). Yet the Teabaggers love to bash Feingold as if he was the devil himself.
I'm not defending him, rather pointing out the hypocracy on all sides.
may be you should stop name calling you mofo
Hypocracy is part of the plan. Constant shuffling of ideologies and contradictory voting schemes. It is a fancy shell game of epic proportions.
I recently wondered if the same hasn't occurred here, at ZH. I noticed an abrupt change from a few posters here. Did they happen to read a book that finally put their head on straight? Or is it something more sinister? Well, I must be a simple-minded, tinfoil madhatter. Don't listen to me. I don't really believe that people, well, [sinister tone on] conspire [sinister tone off].
I got quite a laugh out of "stop calling names, you mofo." That's highbrow. +1.
WaterWings -- what are you suggesting there about hypocrisy? That's it's a strategy practiced in DC -- for what end?
Seems to me there are two sides that ZH illuminates: those that seek free and fair markets, so capital can always be put to highest and most efficient use; and those that seek some distortion of a free and fair market because it affords them some advantage. In game theory, we model and test these situations constantly. It invokes a sense of profound anger in me to see the institutionalized (but unlawful or unaccountable) distortions in our markets -- and so the work goes on.
Seems that what is good for people who have little if any stock or bonds is shitcanning the be-balded one, and what is good for stockholders is re-appointing the schmendrick.
Which to choose?
I'll take the hit now rather than later (but not so much with a short bet on the side) and so can anyone else who wants this greenspan redux gone back to some small private institution where he can quietly ruminate over the favor he did for his progenitors at Goldman Sucks.
Feingold is a rare instance of a legislator who has the courage to vote based on moral conviction rather than campaign contributions and the dictations of Congressional "leadership."
We need more like him.
The teabaggers are a reactionary lot who will find something else to complain about soon enough. They are not leaders, but followers.
"The teabaggers are a reactionary lot"
Really. Is that necessary? We have a lack of grownups already. Why perpetuate it?
Action - Reaction.
It would take 40 years for the amourphus Tea Party to match the whining that comes from the status quo as it is.
You must prefer the status quo, because it's the Tea Party people who are leading the revolt.
Stop looking at 2 parties, they have a driving common interest, screwing us.
On Teabaggers -
The Teabaggers started out as a deliberately orchestrated front in order to raise ire about high taxes ... a typical Republican effort (and yes, you can research the history on the intertubes - Fox News and ClearChannel were practically sponsoring it). However, it's grown, and changed, and morphed into something that may actually be fairly dangerous not only to the Democrats but to the Republicans.
Most are white, middle class and in their 40s-60s, somewhat college educated but not a lot of advanced degrees in the lot. Many are now unemployed or underemployed, trained in jobs that will never be coming back (as much due to automation as to outsourcing). A good number of them will likely not work within their chosen profession ever again. They are politically fairly apathetic normally, though leaning conservative, but they are becoming politicized. Their primary concern is not taxes; it's regaining their former jobs, their former incomes, and their former lifestyles. They will, within the next couple of decades, become the new upper-echelon lower class.
This group (it is, except in limited areas) is still too uncohesive to field political power in the normal sphere of things, but they frankly don't trust either political party, seeing both (with some validity) as being simply different flavors of the same fascistic state. They will almost certainly end up forming the nucleus of the twenty first century conservative movement, however, especially as the old guard Republicans and the Religious Right die off (keep in mind that if you were a thirty-year-old Young Republican in 1975, you'd be 65 this year), and many of the leaders of the Republican party in the 1970s and 80s are now well into their 70s and 80s.
The same goes for the Progressive Wing - 1960s liberalism is dead and buried, but most of the young progressives today are tech savvy, urban, later GenXers and Millennials, environmentally conscience but distrustful of big government solutions, usually much more systemically aware, believing in networks rather than hierarchies, and with an economic bias that owes more to Mises than either Friedman or Keynes. There are deep splits in the Democratic Party between the centrists (who are media corporatists of the 1980s, for the most part) and the new progressives, and in time that rift will become insurmountable.
The neo-Libertarians are much the same stripe - young technologists, more self-focused that externally focused (INT*s versus the progressives' INF*s), economically vs. ecologically motivated, driven more by Ayn Rand than Mises but aware of both. While neo-progressives and neo-libertarians will tend to see themselves as antagonists, they will be much more likely to align against the centrists.
By the middle of this decade I think we'll be in a situation where we have a de facto three party system, though it may take another half decade or more before that is able to push aside the prevaling two party mentality. The GOP will have become the Whig Party of the 19th century. Assuming, as I do, that the Democrats will end up splitting three ways, the Democrat label will formally end up becoming the centrist party, the Progressive/Libertarian coalition will emerge as a swing voting block (though I have no clue what the name would be), and the Tea Baggers will end up becoming the Constitution Party or something along those lines.
Of course, this is just a guess, but I'd be interested in hearing other people's opinions.
+nodding my head the whole post. Flesh this out and guest post it! You really think GenXers are into Mises?
Moral conviction worked great during the Bush years, too.
Bloomberg terminal envy. Thanks for the heads up.
RETRACING = yearly_low / current_price;
private class OuttaDodge extends ComputerAlgorithmProfitSkimmer {
when (RETRACING) = .5 goto SELL
else CRAMER;
SELL.Everything.Now ( Dark_Pool ) goto CRAMER;
CRAMER (Pump.Market) extends Short.Sell ( Naked_Shorts );
}
RETRACING = yearly_low / current_price;
private class OuttaDodge extends ComputerAlgorithmProfitSkimmer {
when (RETRACING) = .5 goto SELL
else CRAMER;
SELL.Everything.Now ( Dark_Pool ) goto CRAMER;
CRAMER (Pump.Market) extends Short.Sell ( Naked_Shorts );
}
Looking at that chart compared to the SPX, it seems like any time it goes up and the market goes sharply down it's an intermediate term buy signal.
It seemed to do a great job marking the bottom in March.
Maybe I'm missing something?
http://i29.photobucket.com/albums/c264/dnarby/ImpliedCorrelationvsSPX.png