Surging Libor-OIS And Cross Currency Basis Swaps Indicate Europe's Response Is Too Little Too Late

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Sat, 05/08/2010 - 10:13 | 337876 Sqworl
Sqworl's picture

He who hesitates is Slovaki lunch...

Tyler: Thank you for keeping it real...:-)

Sat, 05/08/2010 - 10:14 | 337877 tj3
tj3's picture

The clock is ticking on the FED too. No matter how worthless the thought of the one time audit is...people in the money are starting to shat the pants.

and also

pants

+1 Tyler

Sat, 05/08/2010 - 10:25 | 337881 Joe Sixpack
Sat, 05/08/2010 - 20:27 | 338499 Inspector Asset
Inspector Asset's picture

Ah yes, like a line of dominos they will fall. 

And I thought it was just sub prime, 

 

Blue print for the new world currency.  Maybe a fast track to the chip.

 

T.D. thanks for bringing up the notion "why are you still trading?"

Forget the idea you will always get burned. 

Why contribute to the problem and the illusion.

 

 

Sat, 05/08/2010 - 10:35 | 337884 hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture

***********************************************

"Prevent a sovereign debt crisis...[with]...money borrowed by the European Union’s central authorities with guarantees by national governments."

These guys are brilliant!  Prevent a sovereign debt crisis by the sovereigns borrowing more money.  Makes perfect sense to me. 

***********************************************

Bloomberg.com

By James G. Neuger and Gregory Viscusi

Germany, the biggest contributor with as much as 22.4 billion euros over three years, fell in line yesterday with endorsements in the lower and upper houses of parliament. A group of German academics filed a lawsuit to try to halt the payout. A court today rejected the challenge.

The political leadership of the $12 trillion economy also signed off on a 110 billion-euro ($140 billion) aid package for Greece negotiated by finance ministers last week. So far nine governments have cleared the way for funds to be sent to Athens.

May 8 (Bloomberg) -- European leaders agreed to set up an emergency fund to halt the spread of Greece’s fiscal woes, seeking to prevent a sovereign debt crisis from shattering confidence in the 11-year-old euro.

Jolted into action by the sliding currency and soaring bond yields in Portugal and Spain, leaders of the 16 euro countries said the workings of the financial backstop will be hammered out before Asian markets open late tomorrow European time.

“We will defend the euro, whatever it takes,” European Commission President Jose Barroso told reporters early today after the leaders met in Brussels.

Europe’s failure to contain Greece’s fiscal crisis triggered a 4.3 percent drop in the euro this week, the biggest weekly decline since October 2008. And it prompted the U.S. and Asia to rally around in a bid to prevent a global sovereign-debt crisis from pitching the world back into a recession.

“Europe is getting its act together,” said Chris Rupkey, chief financial economist at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd. in New York. “Time will tell if this statement is enough to satisfy the European bond market vigilantes.”

European officials declined to disclose the size of the stabilization fund, to be made up of money borrowed by the European Union’s central authorities with guarantees by national governments. Finance ministers will meet at 3 p.m. tomorrow in Brussels to flesh out the details. A press briefing is scheduled for 6 p.m.

‘That’s Significant’

“When the markets re-open Monday, we will have in place a mechanism to defend the euro,” French President Nicolas Sarkozy said. “If you don’t think that’s significant, you haven’t been to many EU summits.”

Barroso said he wouldn’t push the independent European Central Bank to, for example, buy government bonds. ECB President Jean-Claude Trichetaccelerated the market selloff on May 6 by rejecting that measure.

With the euro facing its stiffest test since its debut in 1999, the summit -- called to discuss efforts to coordinate economic policies -- turned into a crisis-management session that dragged past midnight.

The euro slid to $1.2715 from $1.3293 during the week, and is down 15 percent since late November. European stockssank the most in 18 months, with the Stoxx Europe 600 Index tumbling 8.8 percent to 237.18.

Surging Spreads

The extra yield that investors demand to hold Greek, Portuguese and Spanish debt instead of benchmark German bonds rose to euro-era highs yesterday. The premium on 10-year government bonds jumped as high as 973 basis points for Greece, 354 basis points for Portugal and 173 basis points for Spain.

Europe came under pressure on a hastily arranged conference call of Group of Seven finance chiefs yesterday. All agreed on “the need for a clear, timely and strong response,” Canadian Finance Minister Jim Flaherty, who chaired the call, told reporters in Ottawa. “We hope to see a strong, early policy response in Europe.”

The spreading contagion also drew the attention of President Barack Obama, who said in Washington that U.S. regulators will examine the “unusual market activity” that on May 6 briefly drove the Dow Jones Industrial Average down by almost 1,000 points, erasing more than $1 trillion in wealth before the market bounced back.

“There are impacts on financial markets, including share markets, from the events in Europe and in Greece more specifically,” said Australian Treasurer Wayne Swan, speaking to reporters in Canberra today. “We are urging as speedy a resolution as is possible in the circumstances.”

Merkel’s Call

In Brussels, German Chancellor Angela Merkel stepped up German calls for a closer monitoring of government finances and more rigorous enforcement of the deficit-limitation rules, originally drafted by Germany in the 1990s.

Europe will send “a very clear signal against those who want to speculate against the euro,” Merkel said.

With the euro region’s overall deficit forecast at 6.6 percent of gross domestic product in 2010 and 6.1 percent in 2011, the vow to bring budget shortfalls back below the euro’s 3 percent limit echoes promises that have been regularly broken ever since governments in 1999 set a three-year deadline for achieving balanced budgets.

Plans for a European credit-rating authority are already under consideration at the EU Commission, the bloc’s Brussels- based executive agency. It also is investigating whether ratings companies such as Standard & Poor’s wield too much power over investors’ perceptions of governments.

Restrictions Considered

Asked whether steps to stem speculation against government bonds would include restrictions on short sales or credit default swaps, Barroso said “some of the points you have mentioned will be contemplated.”

Sat, 05/08/2010 - 10:35 | 337890 williambanzai7
williambanzai7's picture

Very clear signals indeed...

Sat, 05/08/2010 - 10:45 | 337892 hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture

“If you don’t think that’s significant, you haven’t been to many EU summits,” said French President Nicolas Sarkozy.

True.  I don't, and I have not.

If France is going to see, "surging spreads," I wish Ségolène Royal would have been elected, versus Sarkozy, if you know what I mean.

http://therichlife.files.wordpress.com/2009/01/segolene_royal.jpg

Sat, 05/08/2010 - 11:37 | 337940 ambrosiac
ambrosiac's picture

 

...seeing that Greece did elect a socialist, and has been doing SOOO well?!...

Sat, 05/08/2010 - 11:56 | 337947 hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture

Surging spreads...surging spreads...get your mind in the gutter.

http://therichlife.files.wordpress.com/2009/01/segolene_royal.jpg

Sat, 05/08/2010 - 20:34 | 338507 Inspector Asset
Inspector Asset's picture

Gee, I wonder of Goldman did a bulk of their business in Greece?  Maybe with a guy named John Paulson? Na, must be another Paulson.

 

 

Sat, 05/08/2010 - 11:23 | 337913 M.B. Drapier
M.B. Drapier's picture

Barroso said he wouldn’t push the independent European Central Bank to, for example, buy government bonds. ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet accelerated the market selloff on May 6 by rejecting that measure.

Would it really hurt for some financial journalist somewhere ever to mention in passing to his readers that, oh, by the way, for the ECB to directly buy government bonds is completely bloody illegal?

With emphasis on 'directly', of course. So the "overblown pawnshop" will soon slosh cheap money on the commercial banks at the same time as it pledges to take all Greek sovereign debt forever at shallow, shallow haircuts: nudge, nudge, wink, wink.

Sat, 05/08/2010 - 11:41 | 337943 Amsterdammer
Amsterdammer's picture

The ECB has already 'broken' its book

by accepting the 'near-to-junk' or 'junk'-rated

Greek bonds. As the spanish El Pais reports

(and they've been having pretty good information

of late, 600 billion euros are in discusssion

right, either through a stabilization fund or

the E.C.B buying soverreign bonds, and possibly

helping the banks. Imho, you are totally right, but

now that both treaties have been broken

de facto, maybe is it time to rewrite the book.

When you watch the speed at which the Greek

bail-out was voted, you can expect a few

amendments to see the light of the  day by tomorrow

afternoon

 

Sat, 05/08/2010 - 14:12 | 337956 M.B. Drapier
Sat, 05/08/2010 - 10:27 | 337885 cossack55
cossack55's picture

Is the ticking clock Big Ben or Big Ben B.?

Sat, 05/08/2010 - 10:42 | 337889 plocequ1
plocequ1's picture

Come on Tyler, Lets be fair now. You gotta like the way it sounds.. " IMF bails out Greece" Thats good for a 50 point gain on the Dow. Who gives a fuck if its too late. We must protect the all sacred, Untouchable, Godly, Higher than thou , My shit dont stink Wall street and the Stock market. Of course im being ultra sarcastic. I cant wait for this bubble to pop and watch all the filth, corruption, Dirt and Feces to come spewing out. I sure hope your charts and theories are correct.

Sat, 05/08/2010 - 13:39 | 338080 Al Huxley
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The magic bull spell that resulted in a 50 point rally every time any piece of ridiculous propaganda was spouted by the MSM is now broken.  It truly is too late.  If TPTB truly manage the market, they should have allowed a decent correction in March or early April to maintain some stability and support points in the market.  Now its completely screwed.

And while I share your opinions about the corruption, when things really go down I expect it will cause so much suffering and misery that it will be way too nasty to enjoy.

Sat, 05/08/2010 - 15:54 | 338256 geminiRX
geminiRX's picture

Reminds me of the movie "The Matrix".  Unplugging the masses from their manufactured reality will indeed be a spectacle. I look forward to the day. I can't stand the deception.

Sat, 05/08/2010 - 10:47 | 337899 chinaguy
chinaguy's picture

It's on!

Sat, 05/08/2010 - 10:51 | 337901 anonymike
anonymike's picture

Also, check out Credit Derivatives Research Counterparty Risk Index which has turned north in recent days (Mar '09 peak was 305)

Sat, 05/08/2010 - 10:57 | 337906 jal
jal's picture

 

“Whose debt will the ECB monetize? Who will benefit the most?

 

... not even last night's announcement of a bail out facility will do much for the EURUSD rate. And should the EUR crash to the 1.20 support level, then the Fed will have no option but to institute currency swap lines, which in turn will activate a whole new set of liquidity parameters. Not the least of which will be that the realization that the recovery leg of the fabled V-shaped economic expansion has been a mirage. The only other option for Europe, is outright monetization. We think this will not happen, as that action would be the death knell of the Euro, which would then tumble close to parity, once again forcing the Fed to get involved. If anyone will monetize anything, it will be the Fed, which is so far saving the worst for last.... “

 

I’ve read opinions that expressed that Germany wanted a lower EUR and that as a result Germany would be the beneficiary. 

jal

 

Sat, 05/08/2010 - 11:17 | 337919 Mercury
Mercury's picture

At least most of these countries don't have much of a military standing around. Plenty of major European wars have been triggered over smaller potatoes.

I'd still be nervous about Turkey if I lived in Greece.  There's some bad blood there and the Turks have the largest standing army in Europe by far.

Sat, 05/08/2010 - 14:09 | 338131 cbaba
cbaba's picture

Don't even think about it. Turks will never go into war with Greece or any other country. Its and old Greek myth for centuries. Its true that  Ottoman Turks invaded Greece and controlled the land few hundred years , but not only Greece, they controlled all middle east and north Africa too, but that was something in the past, in old times everybody invaded another country to get tax and money but in the 21st century those invasion times is over. There is a new Republic in Turkey which has a  motto " peace in the country, peace in the world" and nobody likes a war with any country unless there is a threat coming to defend the country.Besides Turks likes Greeks , they want to  have more close relations and forget the past.

Sat, 05/08/2010 - 16:05 | 338264 Charlie J
Charlie J's picture

There is indeed bad blood between the Turks and the Greeks.  In the mid-60s I lived in Istanbul and my step-mom was Greek ethnic.  When I went to Athens and said (in Greek) that I lived in "Istanbul", the folks bristled and pointedly told me it was "Constantinopolis".  I was absolutely amazed that they still called it that. 

I could tell many more stories, but, my real comment is that Turkey is not going to invade Greece and try to take it over.  They might still fight over Cypress, but Turkey is not going to try and annex Greece.  Sheesh.

Sat, 05/08/2010 - 11:40 | 337921 youngandhealthy
youngandhealthy's picture

I am puzzled over ZH. For almost 2 years ZH has been hammering Ben B, Geithner, Paulson for their bail-out of US investment Banks and rightfully so. Now when ECB keeps to it rules and act as being independent from politicians, the Euro Parlament, and the EC and "refuse" to bail-out banks by buying their sovereign bonds (from Greece) then ZH "turn" against ECB and JCT? I don't get it.

Sat, 05/08/2010 - 12:30 | 337990 Cheeky Bastard
Cheeky Bastard's picture

Its hard to admit that the USA has become more socialist, fascist, whatever-ist than Europe. Its like a giant kick in the balls to America. Also, Tyler seems to suffer from multiple personality disorder *tsk tsk*

Sat, 05/08/2010 - 12:33 | 337992 Day_Of_The_Tentacle
Day_Of_The_Tentacle's picture

LOOOOL ;-)

Sat, 05/08/2010 - 12:54 | 338016 Prof Gulliver
Prof Gulliver's picture

It's true. Tyler has been predicting a market pullback for a long time based on the lies and manipulation that floated the indexes to unwarranted highs. Then when we get a crashlet, he says that was manipulated by Bennie Mae so he could sell his bonds. I think Tyler is just a cranky contrarian, even if it means he has to contradict himself.

Sat, 05/08/2010 - 12:59 | 338022 Cheeky Bastard
Cheeky Bastard's picture

No, Tyler is cool man, but he needs to coordinate sentiments between his various selfs

Sat, 05/08/2010 - 13:09 | 338030 Prof Gulliver
Prof Gulliver's picture

Ha! Mebbe he's not Tyler Durden/Narrator. Mebbe he's Eve White/Eve Black.

Sat, 05/08/2010 - 13:19 | 338045 Psquared
Psquared's picture

Wait a minute. He has been talking about a crash based on the lack of fundamentals not a manipulated one caused by computers - although he has been warning about that too. We don't know if this was a crash or just a temporary setback. Personally, I think we have an attempt at a rally next week based on 1) an SEC coverup; 2) ECB bailout; and 3) pump monkeys on CNBC telling everyone to buy, buy, buy.

If a rally does not happen next week we drop further, and if the news gets worse out of Europe this "could" be the beginning of the end.

I also think there is some chance that Thursday was an orchestrated warning to the EU/ECB to bailout Greece and not leave banks holding the bag, and to the Senate not to fuck with Mother Market/Wall Street. It was the equivalent of, "there will be riots and "Marshal Law" only they have hollered for that wolf a little too often. This was a different kind of threat and it may have worked.

Sat, 05/08/2010 - 18:32 | 338379 Tyler Durden
Tyler Durden's picture

When the ECB formally announces it will be doing no monetization, covered bond buying, etc. and is actually tested to that statement (which should happen in the next 168 hours) we will applaud them. In the meantime, Trichet's discourse has been meandering from one hypocritical end to another. At least Bernanke is steadfast in his slash and burn tactics.

Sat, 05/08/2010 - 19:35 | 338460 M.B. Drapier
M.B. Drapier's picture

At least Bernanke is steadfast in his slash and burn tactics.

Careful what you wish for. I wouldn't interpret JCT's Mr. Probity act, or his lack of silky Maestro skills at timing and theatre, as a lack of fundamental will to do Whatever It Takes to postpone the evil day. My best guess is that - excuse my business French - when cornered Trichet will print like a motherfucker. (He'll have to do it to save his own bank, never mind anyone else's.) And that the German politicians won't stop him, not this side of something snapping.

Sat, 05/08/2010 - 11:23 | 337926 Biff Malibu
Biff Malibu's picture

I have a friend with >20 years as an officer in the military.  We had a few beers and began to talk.  He told me some interesting things I thought I would share with all of you, as the ZH community is THE ONLY place to find interesting information...

1) there is talk that a North Korean submarine torpedoed the oil well in the Gulf.  Maybe the same one that sunk the South Korean ship.  A huge environmental disaster would show Barrack that they can F- with us at will.

2) the 9/11 airliner that crashed in Pennsylvania that was "overtaken" by the passengers was actually shot down by an F-16.  Probably the one that Cheney ordered shot down.  He said most national guard pilots are airline pilots for their regular jobs and that he had heard talk.

3) also there is confirmation that there is a woman out there that had breast implants with explosives.  they know it happened, they know she exists, but they don't know who she is or where she is.

Anyway, obviously this is second-hand and third-hand info, but to me it makes sense, especially the torpedoed oil rig.

Have a good weekend everybody.  Tyler, thank you for once I'm on the right side of the market.  It's fun watching the R-TARDS on CNBC try to spin something as fact, now that we ZH'ers are armed with the truth.

Biff

 

Sat, 05/08/2010 - 12:15 | 337971 MaxPower
MaxPower's picture

As a long-time military officer, I'm sad to report that you're not passing along second and third-hand info; you're passing along second and third-hand rumors.

It's important to highlight that everyone in the military, officer or enlisted, is a puppet lynchpin in the flag-waving cornerstone of the propaganda machine that is the congressional-military-industrial complex. All of what you've mentioned are broad strokes of the "paint an enemy" brush, resulting from too many bored pilots sitting around a briefing room, collecting what's known as "welfare with dignity."

In 2002, during a deployment, I personally (just for fun) started a rumor that our unit would be trading one aircraft type for another just to see what would happen. That rumor met me at a base ten hours away in another country by the time I landed there on the same day that I started the rumor.

Also important to remember that National Guard units tend to draw local recruits. Where I served, many members still flew Confederate flags on their cars, which should indicate their willingness to create an alternate reality through the rumor mill.

Could all of what you've listed be true? Possibly, but you've provided nothing to indicate that. We have too many factual, important issues to deal with right frickin' now to be distracted by this.

Sat, 05/08/2010 - 14:31 | 338155 Simon Jester
Simon Jester's picture

Completely off the general topic, but, as far as flight 93 is concerned, I KNOW what I saw with my own 20/15 vision while looking through my Swarovski 7x42's on that clear eastern Ohio morning. The "official" story is bunk.

Sat, 05/08/2010 - 14:52 | 338186 Day_Of_The_Tentacle
Day_Of_The_Tentacle's picture

Please see my comment to Biff below, and share your story.

Sat, 05/08/2010 - 21:36 | 338571 Bringin It
Bringin It's picture

Agreed - official flight 93 story is pure bunk/junk.

There was lot's of debris miles away.  Impossible if the plane did not break up in the air.

I watched local news coverage, live on 9/11 morning from PA. showing locals at a boat dock on a lake holding airline seat cushions and similar debris.

I pray for the sheeples to overcome their ignorance.

Sat, 05/08/2010 - 12:27 | 337978 Pure Evil
Pure Evil's picture

Not to shoot down your NK theory, but even the military has its own rumor mill, called scuttlebut.

And, who's to say some other person in the military didn't read the same story and start passing it around as a joke only to end up being taken seriously by others.

The official propaganda from the MSM is that the drilling rig hit a Methane Hydrate pocket that travelled up the drill pipe blowing out the seals. This is coming straight from the rescued platform workers.

http://apnews.myway.com/article/20100508/D9FIH0G00.html

I always thought that NK story was a disinformation campaign put out to titillate the masses.

But, who's to say it ain't a little coincidental that a SK naval ship was torpedoed a few weeks before the drilling plateform could have been torpedoed. The torpedoing of the SK naval ship was just NK's way of showing the US what it could accomplish.

But, the GOM is full of Methane Hydrate pockets as well as the Caribbean so I suspect the accident was caused by Methane Hydrate.

Although, if they wanted to they could send down submersibles to view the drilling platform and attempt to find the cause of the explosion.

At the same time, who can believe anything put out by official sources now days.

Sat, 05/08/2010 - 12:56 | 338017 Day_Of_The_Tentacle
Day_Of_The_Tentacle's picture

Blow-outs are caused by a gas bubble that rises up through the well. Because of the depth (in this case a 18000 feet well as far as I remember) a teeny weeny bubble will expand and excalate the blow-out rapidly on its way up through the well as pressure decreases. In a normal oil reservoir you also have gas. This is not unique to the GOM. Drilling is dangerous work.

Sat, 05/08/2010 - 13:16 | 338043 Ned Zeppelin
Ned Zeppelin's picture

Sooo.....in essence you're telling me the Gulf oil rig blowout was caused by a giant Earth fart?

Sat, 05/08/2010 - 13:52 | 338100 Day_Of_The_Tentacle
Day_Of_The_Tentacle's picture

HA HA...ahemn.....well... yes I would say that is just about accurate. As in all things concerning Mother Earth - she is truly great - also when it comes to matters of flatulence.

Sat, 05/08/2010 - 14:31 | 338156 cougar_w
cougar_w's picture

Yes.

"Quick! Light me!"

Nature has a dorky sense of humor.

Sun, 05/09/2010 - 00:13 | 338700 abc123
abc123's picture

Wow.  Scuttlebut really moves fast. 

 

Do a little research that involves non-blog material....

 

http://www.glossary.oilfield.slb.com/search.cfm

 

Check under BOP for blow out preventer.  Also read up on underbalanced drilling...

 

 

Sat, 05/08/2010 - 12:41 | 338002 seventree
seventree's picture

Wouldn't an NK deisel sub have to make most of that trip at the surface? Possibly accompanied by a fuel tender? How closely does US surveillance monitor NK sea traffic? Just wondering.

Sat, 05/08/2010 - 13:20 | 338053 Kayman
Kayman's picture

Come, come now....

I heard that North Korea dis-assembled an entire sub, smuggled the pieces via suitcases to New Orleans, re-assembled the sub, and rammed it into the platform. 

Jeez, people, if China wanted its puppet to cause damage, it would not be an oil platform in the Gulf of Mexico.

When I want to understand what's going on with things like an oil platform igniting, creating a monstrous oil leak, I first think Keystone Cops...

Then, and only then, will you start finding the truth.

Sat, 05/08/2010 - 13:25 | 338056 Psquared
Psquared's picture

hehehe ... yep, that would be correct

It would have to slip through the shipping lanes all the way across the Pacific, then up from Cape Horn, make a stop at a friendly port or two along the way (say Venezuela/Cuba) and get into the Gulf without being spotted.

Ain't gonna happen.

Sat, 05/08/2010 - 12:53 | 338014 THE DORK OF CORK
THE DORK OF CORK's picture

You mean I cannot even fondle womens breasts anymore, this police state is becoming intolerable.

Sat, 05/08/2010 - 14:36 | 338164 MaxFrost
MaxFrost's picture

Nothing wrong with dying while doing something you love...

Sat, 05/08/2010 - 14:53 | 338190 THE DORK OF CORK
THE DORK OF CORK's picture

The ultimate sacrifice for your country. 

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