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Surreal Macabre Circus Is Now In Session: Stocks Surge In Week When Lipper Reports $11.6 Billion In Equity Fund Outflows
Today's Lipper/AMG fund flow data confirmed the ICI data disclosed earlier: in the week ended July 7, in which stocks have rallied by who knows how many percent - nobody without Gallium Arsenide logic gates really keeps track of the market anymore, equities saw outflows of $11.6 billion. We'll repeat it because it bears repeating: stocks have surged as mutual funds have seen one of their biggest weekly outflows in 2010. Will someone with a Ph.D. from a reputable institution please explain that one to us. Furthermore, HY fund lows saw yet another exodus, this time of $166 million, following last week's $322 million. On the other hand, things in IG land are back to normal: after seeing their first outflow in 69 weeks last week for a tiny slip of $32 million, investors are back to dumping all their money in investment grade corporates, with inflows of $896 million. And most notably, money market funds saw their biggest inflow in 2010, at $18.5 billion, following last week's outflow of $11.6 billion. So yes, money was actively being allocated to cash yet somehow the powers that be managed to ramp the computerized stock market farce that is the Dow by something like 500 points in 4 days. Whatever. Will the three blind mute retarded monkeys who actually still have any faith left in our ridonculously manipulated market please follow all the other lemmings over the cliff, not forget to pay Goldman Sachs the $200 suicide fee, and shut the light on their way out.
Here are some other thoughts from BofA:
HY fund flows exhibited a mixed picture this week. The headline AMG flow figure came in at negative $166mn, following in the footsteps of a $322mn exodus a week earlier. Market performance over the past few sessions suggested there could have been a stronger flow figure in store, given a slight increase in shares outstanding of HY ETFs, steady gains in cash bonds, and strong demand for new issues. Yet the daily breakdown of flow from EPFR has shown smallish but steady outflows in every session earlier this week. Notably, HY outflows were indiscriminate across retail and institutional funds, as well as U.S. versus non-U.S. HY accounts.
And some pretty charts and tables.
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And a new moon in three days...
http://www.debka.com/article/8903/
http://www.upi.com/Top_News/Special/2010/06/30/Iran-Rumors-of-war-reach-...
This president will never make a decision go to war. He's only in Afgan because of things he said on the campaign trail. He'd much rather sit down with the Iranians and understand what we've done wrong to piss them off.
http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=20008
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Dangerous Crossroads in World History: Obama’s New Iran Sanctions: An Act of Warby Shamus Cooke
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"
When the UN refused to agree to the severe sanctions that the U.S. wanted, Obama responded with typical Bush flair and went solo. The new U.S. sanctions against Iran — signed into law by Obama on July 1st — are an unmistakable act of war.
If fully enforced, Iran’s economy will be potentially destroyed. The New York Times outlines the central parts of the sanctions:
“The law signed by Mr. Obama imposes penalties on foreign entities that sell refined petroleum to Iran or assist Iran with its domestic refining capacity. It also requires that American and foreign businesses that seek contracts with the United States government certify that they do not engage in prohibited business with Iran.” (July 1, 2010).
Iran must import a large part of its refined oil from foreign corporations and nations, since it does not have the technology needed to refine all the fuel that it pumps from its soil. By cutting this refined oil off, the U.S. will be causing massive, irreparable damage to the Iranian economy — equaling an act of war. .....".
In doing God's work, it is The Immaculate Erection.
"....nobody without Gallium Arsenide logic gates really keeps track of the market anymore......Will someone with a Ph.D. from a reputable institution...."
Shit man, when does the book come out? I wanna know what flavor kool-aide you drink so's I can talk like you write and the chicks will all dig me. Fuuuunny!
If it's gonna be death by surreal macabre circus at least I'm goin' down laughing, courtesy of ZH..
thats what i was wondering.......T.D....u r funny...thats the 2nd best feature of ZH...
Humor is one of the prime reasons for throwing some FRN at ZH.
The comments are getting more sharp as we explore the abyss.
Gallium Arsenide is sooo last decade. It's all about millimeter wave (mmW)/EHF bitchez!
Corrupt beyond words. Why isn't this already Phase I of QE2? What else is driving this market other than surreptitious stock purchases by the Fedsters?
Shit Ben, someone noticed.
check the greenspan interview with money honey today. Greenspan all but said stock appreciation was real money and that is a stimulus package. His words: 401K investors don't care if it is a capital gain or a contribution it is just money. For a PHD no menton of externalities of course. He also indicated a move to charge banks for excess reserves to force it into the market. If he is not instituitonalized he should be
As he has said on numerous occasions. I've gleaned from his words that it's official doctrine that reflation policy should be implemented via the equity markets because there is an immediate psychological impact followed by a trickle down effect. Part of the strategy is to use the equity market to recapitalize cash hungry corporations through secondary offerings, a point that has been largely missed during the past year. THAT was a back door bailout like no other.
hey is it possible that ol' uncle Al received his PhD from an institution of ill-repute, or even dis-repute?
Why would anyone let facts get in the way of making business/investment decisions??
Everyone knows its a sham, the SEC has obviously been put on permanent vacation and told to shut up or else. What happened with the Goldman and JP Morgan probes, its like they disappeared into mid air. Congress has been told to do what they are told or else.
The way to fix it, is not to play. Everyone pull their money out of this scam across the board and put it in cash in their hands. The more people play, the more they will steal and lie about everything. Stop paying these banks anything. Force the system to collapse, then demand the clowns out before playing again under new stricter rules.
Very good jkuffin.
Too big to fail is not too big to stop doing bussiness with... screw them back ,or keep getting screwed.... What will it be?
the covert market influences are working as usual. that's what's happening. the wealthiest 3% are dumping their junk on the the gullible again.
"a fool and his money are soon parted"- wc fields
"and wherever goes the fool, so, goes the wise merchant to part him with his money." -- Stephen behr
http://covert2.wordpress.com
What happened to Charles Biderman ?!?
He sold out a few months back.
Simple answer: The Fed can print money faster than "mom and pop" investors take it out of the market and insiders are able to "cash out" at or near the highs.
I dunno, but this might be more than printing money. As I'm staring at the updated rates, I sometimes wonder what or who might be on the other end feeding me these numbers. Does anyone know exactly how market rates are calculated on a real time basis, who monitors the computers, who is in charge of what rates, etc. ??? What checks and balances exist?
I'm mean, really, why print money to just pump up the market when you can just enter in the same numbers over on another computer and just directly print the market, so to speak.
True, yet selling into 'strength' and buying gold/silver while the price has been lowered is a strategy many are taking advantage of nowadays. So is getting out of your 401k and anything the US government may want to appropriate/tax/etc. The sooner you remove your dollars out of the system and into safer physical asset holdings the better.
Keep your eye on HY in the next few weeks. When that goes, we'll get QE2.
Wait, everyone who is saying what-else-is-new, hold up, please. I think what Tyler is suggesting is different than the usual implications. Isn't he pointing to some sort of direct fudging of the numbers and not just more pumping of the liquidity? It's like the difference between an artificial pump and someone actually just changing the readings on the dial, no?
or perhaps simple common sense.
Unreal! So it's literally magically levitating due to the power of collusion and modern day computing. Thank God the SEC is on the case...or watching tranny porn, you know whatever.
Could the same Ph.D. also answer this question: The FED just finished $1.25 trillion in agency MBS purchase market pump scheme which didn't appear to work. What makes them think another round is going to? Wait.. from a reputable institution? Never mind...
God it's like warning people to not swallow a handful of stupid.
Seriously, where is this money coming from, my demented theory is they have a pipe directly hooked up to the markets from the federal reserve and the market evaporates it so fast it avoids inflation.
I wonder which side breaks first by running the HFT's pinned at 100% CPU? Anyone want to set up a dead pool, only way to make money off this right now.
It would save them a lot of trouble if they just skipped the first few steps and started with computers on exchanges. It helps the Fed, the prime lenders, politicians; makes everyone happy. They probably think they should be doing it, if they're not already.
Shoot, they even an excuse if they get caught; to save us.
The governments motto is "Fake it until you make it".
CNBC article today "Stock Gains Aren't Just 'Paper Profits': Greenspan"
http://www.cnbc.com/id/38152829What legitimate reason would he have to explicitly say that? How long can this house of cards stay up? The stock market is an illusion just like our well capitalized banks & the value of the USD.
They're not just paper profits if you take them and buy gold or something useful. Then they are real profits.
Off the topic, but connected in a way.
I am a small business owner with per/capita capitalization of about 270k. We are doing well enough and are looking at a bolus of sales that will piss off the eight or ten employees that would like a quarter sized government employee style vacation (one week).
My advice to them is to suck it up and "bank" the overtime as the bottom will likely fall out this autumn.
When are we going to get BLS stats that focus on the productive economy? GDP is a bullshit stat. We need a stat that excludes goomint wages and gombit stimulus of any sort,
You will then find that the "economy" is sitting at levels of 12% to 20% below their benchmark.
Plunge Protection Team?
High Frequency Traders?
1:100 Leverage?
Hot Air?
On a serious note, this is a technical bounce. Last time in December 2007, after the "death cross" we had a similar 3-day S&P rally before the market plunged lower (it is buy the rumor [of a "death cross"], sell the fact kind of response described by the technicians -- right after the "death cross" there is usually a low volume dead cat)
But a technical bounce needs a something to bounce on. It shouldn't be bouncing right now. To just say it's a technical bounce is like watching a ball bounce in mid air and saying, oh, that's normal because balls always bounce.
Re: "needs a something to bounce on"
Don't tell me you have never seen an oversold short-covering dead cat bounce.
I'm stating that the point of being "oversold" is non-arbitrary for applying the model. Thus, works well in hindsight, after the non-arbitrary value is determined. But what determines it is the actual reason we should be after. Regardless, I'm more persuaded by Tyler's data that this is something much bigger than can be explained by a technical bounce.
in my experience, these "oversold" rallies tend to have some kind of short term catalyst like the renimbi float announcement last month. this episode, in contrast, started with the inexplicable run into to friday's close. monday evening, the futures were down close to 1%, then out of nowhere a rip of the futures into the open to get the momo's going, which failed. Tuesday night, same thing futures down late NY time, then the rip into the open. this time it sticks. top it off with yesterday's close on that great cosumer credit number. no confusion here, this was a premeditated rip by someone. remember, it is no longer a market but rather a policy tool.
Re: "monday evening, the futures were down close to 1%, then out of nowhere a rip of the futures into the open to get the momo's going"
Yes I saw it too, the futures reversed suddenly overnight in Asia on a rumor of Chinese sovereign fund considering buying US equities -- after the powerful and brisk reversal (to trap the shorts) they continued jamming the futures higher and higher to squeeze the shorts.
Fed is just starting to try and learn how to manage deflation. They never thought they would need to because they thought their system had it permanently licked. Now they're sweatin'.
that is exactly what I have thought of the fed for years now. They are economic and monetary witch doctors at the blood letting and human sacrifice stage now because the sheeple are confused and angry at them and want them out of the picture because they heal nothing
Uh... recognition of capitulation?
I call dibs on the GS computers and generators when THSHTF.
They might nationalize it.
It's crazy enough to come true. I could see it being popular among the lottery types.
But wait! There must be a perfectly logical explaination for this. Afterall, this is our financial system we're talking about.
It makes great sense from the inside.
Seriously though. People are pulling money from wherever they can to pay bills. At some point the hedge funds will topple and the Fidelity's and MFS people etc are going to get pink slips as the funds are wound down and consolidated. That will be signal.
Gosh, I think that you are trying to tell me that the stock market is rigged or something. Gee, that can have implications, even unintended consequences, unforeseen events. Almost sounds, gulp, dishonest. Ruined my evening. May be I should get out of the market, put my money in US gov't bonds where I know it is safe.
I went short today, so look for a 900 point rally. Always fade my trades, that is the path to riches.
"Will someone with a Ph.D. from a reputable institution please explain that one to us"
Yeah, come on you Economists. We're just sitting here ijn our overalls drooling like idiots, waiting for some Economist errudition.
Oversold dead cat bounce (stochastic and money flow were in extreme oversold territory). Pink arrow is a trend reversal signal -- hanging man pattern (bulls are losing control) -- suggesting that we are approaching the end of this dead cat bounce. http://www.investopedia.com/terms/h/hangingman.asp
Come on guys. How many times does Hussman have to explain this. If mutual funds experience outflows of X billion then somewhere else someone bought x million. It's called price discovery. Each of the X dollars in outflows was matched by an equal order to buy. Now the price is determined by the marginal dollar that either party wanted to pay. It is more than likely that large intstitutions were rebalancing into Equities after heavy losses in May. The price will move if one party is more willing to buy than the other side is willing to sell.
I am not saying that there is no manipulation going on here. But that markets go up even though we see record mutual fund outflows doesn't mean anything. The retail share of the overall equity market is a pretty low, and 11.6bn is really a drop in the bucket.
It's a fallacy to believe that fund flows tell you anyhting about where the market moves or will move. You can't look at one side of the equation only. It's like the old "Cash on the Sidelines" Myth.
LMAO ..great Humor..
Tyler, is there really anything different between this summer and last summer? I have this feeling they could float this market on no volume all summer. Probably not all that different from last summer when the bots made most of the daily trading volume in FNM, FRE, AIG and C. It's a bloody sham. I am not sure if there are many left that remember when fundamentals actually meant something. I hope this market corrects - but I am no longer holding my breath. I used to enjoy trading - but have exited out of disgust.
Someone smack me if I'm way off, but the difference is that last summer bailing out the market could fly with the public. This summer, maybe not so much. Elections are coming up, and it may be better to hold off pumping the fed and find a better way to pump markets more directly, no?
It is getting obvious that some lanky dickwad and some bald central banker are betting their futures on rising stock prices at all costs...
Can't fail now.... Come on S&P over the hump until November...
This site and Tyler´s unbalanced reporting of economic reality leads to rallies that we have seen in the last three days.
1) As we all know Goldman and al are watching this site ( and not only Goldman - remember Nielsen´s comments about "all the grizzlies" out there ? )
2) The spreading of exclusively doom and gloom stories is adding to the uber-bearish tone in stock markets
3) It is logical that brutal rallies ( almost 6,5 % in 3 days ) occur as a matter of valuation corrections
4) P/E ratios are an never ending DYNAMIC process and quantitative models take this into consideration on a daily basis
5) Stock mutual fund outflows and inflows are only an indication of what a general market direction might be, but has no significance as to valuation models
6) When will Tyler finally start a more balanced approach on this site ?
7) I am not allowing my kids to read this site because of theuber-usage of the expression "idiots" ! :=(
take from this site what you wish to take
to suggest that "Tyler finally start a more balanced approach" is stupid on so many levels that I can't help but consider you an idiot
and that is consistent with your respect for these markets as showcased by your other comments
"...our ridonculously manipulated market..."
Ha!
I must have mind-melded with Tyler because in the past two or three weeks I have been saying ridonculous in place of ridiculous.
Ridonculous indeed :>)
Maybe the meltup was a fake? ... I think today's Black Swans all make the market go up ... including the news that everyone is getting out or Unemployment misses target or Consumer Credit dives or Consumer Confidence is sinking or -7.7% ERCI is pointing down again ... Just who is holding all these long positions (Leo excluded)?
And btw WTF, 300,000,000 flows in to munis?
This what Charles Biederman was saying
and for a year then all of a sudden did a 180
a couple months back.
Was he "talked to?"
Yea, Biderman was (past tense) great at exposing this bullshit. Then, on a dime, changed his tune. Your guess is the same as mine. He was paid off and quickly. He was starting to ferret it out in conclusive ways. He got way too close to the truth.
He doesn't sound like he's changed his tune much here...this was just a couple of weeks ago...
http://www.facebook.com/video/video.php?v=924589997103
Don't forget that most discretionary "consumer" dollars come from the top 20% of earners, the same folks who are likely to have money in the stock market and who are likely to feel "rich" and cut loose with some spending if their statement shows a bigger number this month than last month. It's clever, really.
I believe it's know as the 'wealth effect'. And yes, they've been trying to dupe people into 'feeling' more wealthy for about 2 years now by jacking the market.
Well, dropped out of Templeton Oxford DPhil,
but bonds are up YTD and cash and stocks are not...
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