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Suspicious Activity
Hoods and Bosses over at Goldman are cooking up something. Difficult to tell what kind of trick they are scheming up, but the relative strength in the euro, copper, and RKH leaves me somewhat suspicious. Maybe they powerjam stocks back up to the 50-day to blow out the late bears?
Lots of charts still hanging around "Do or Die" levels being eyeballed by millions of hedge fund traders with their hands nervously hovering near the F11 or F12 keys. Virtually 100% of all technicians this weekend were harping on the clear and obvious "technical breakdown". Yet I find this to be odd when only last Tuesday we made new highs for the move. Seems like the Goldman Pigmen are concocting some plan to throw these slide rule technicians off balance somehow.
Here are a few to watch:
Otherwise, pretty boring tape this morning, except for the poor blokes who shorted Halliburton in the pre-market:
Also found it odd that those who were piling into the "recession proof" biotechs were burnt today.
It really boils down to this.
As my buddy Rasputin puts it, its "Inflate or Die".
Is Obama and Congress dumb enough throw out Bernanke and watch the economy implode and trillions of dollars of toxic trash on the Fed's balance sheet get blowtorched??
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Suspicious activity? LOL, all I saw was sunny activity:
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/cq?d=v1&s=csiq,jaso,ldk,sol,solf,stp,tsl,yge
Keep buying these solars when they sell off huge like last week. Any moves below 50 or 200 day m.a. is a buy on solars. Big hedgies manipulate them and accumulate them. Call me a liar, a retard, whatever other names but this will be the hot sector of 2010. :)
Today's market action:
Most active gainers:
NYSE
Nasdaq
Amex
Most active decliners:
NYSE
Nasdaq
Amex
Leo,
I have yet to respond to any of your posts, but I would like to communicate to you the fact that your missives are not wasted here at ZH. While you might receive a healthy share of criticism, you stalwartly stand by your prognostications, and you don't attempt revisionist history when you've missed a call. For the record, I'm with your forecast through mid-winter. After that, I'll reevaluate, as I don't foresee "green shoots" making it through what is likely to be a very harsh winter.
Best of luck to you, and I'm watching your solar calls. You might be on to something big barring some sort of systemic meltdown (the likelihood of which I will abstain from asserting).
Thanks Anon# 205671,
It always bugs me when analysts, pundits, traders or portfolio managers tout this or that but never tell you where they are investing their own money. If I am wrong, I am wrong, but at least you can't accuse me of hoarding my ideas all to myself or hiding when I'm wrong.
I try to share as much as possible with all of you. For example, I beefed up a previous post on hot hedge fund trades for 2010, and added a few excellent funds to my previous list. You can skim through their quarterly filings to get ideas of what they are buying or selling (even if data is lagged). I like to see where they are adding, and I don't just look at solars. I look at tech, semis, energy, materials, medical devices and various other sectors.
Just because I have been opportunistically accumulating solars over the past year (every time time they get whacked hard, I accumulate more), it doesn't mean that I am right. I could be dead wrong. But that is a bet I'm willing to make with my own money. I have nobody to answer to but myself. Each individual should know themselves and what they're willing to risk.
It takes nerves of steel to invest in solars. If you puke every time the market goes down, forget about solars. There are plenty of other stocks out there that the top hedge funds are buying (for example, David Einhorn of Greenlight Capital has a big position in Pfizer).
The point is not whether or not you agree with my market views or sector picks. Start educating yourself, learn to think for yourself and don't listen to what the claptraps on CNBC are telling you. Watch what the top funds are actually buying & selling and think about the longer-term trends.
Traders on ZH are great providing you with short-term insight but traders are terrible at managing big funds. In most cases, their strategies are not scalable so they cannot manage big money. Only top hedgies/ CTAs can do that and deliver consistent alpha.
I've rambled enough...Cheers.
I will have to give you credit Leo , you are almost a lone wolf on these pages and it takes guts to break with the pack but I will have to respectfully disagree with you about the solar thingy although it may be promising in some limited areas
But then again where I come from the presence of a luminous disk in the sky is a almost mythical phenomena so I could be missing something.
Leo,
It's one thing to tell us where to invest now or that we should invest now. However, your enthusiastic tone is reminiscent to the go go bulls days in the last two bubbles.
I for one, am out of the market all together as almost everyone on this blog suspects either foul play or another bubble. Unless you are a wall street insider and know when the reversals occur, you are toast.
We therefore, believe that the only thing anyone can advise here is caution. Perhaps suggesting a trick trade here or there or pointing to an arbitrage play, is okay. Anything else is pure gambling.
This market is unpredictable.
Oracle of Kypseli,
I understand your skepticism but many of you still don't understand that the Fed and other central bankers will do everything in the power to reignite an asset bubble even if it means risking inflation down the road. This may work or it may fail but for them and the financial oligarchs that pull their strings, deflation is simply not an option.
The broad liquidity rally that we saw in 2009 will become more localized in 2010. A few sectors will benefit, and some a lot more than others. Is this gambling? I am not gambling but betting that alternative energy will enjoy a long secular bull run. If I'm wrong, I will live with the losses.
And I agree with you that arbitrage strategies will become increasingly important in these markets. Finally, I am not a perma bull. Ask any of my former employers and my close friends. I made Prechter look like Cramer back in 2005, 2006 and 2007.
But right now, it's not about Black Swan events but about Black Sloth events. Central banks are on guard for any possible systemic risk, so that's not what preoccupies me.
"I understand your skepticism but many of you still don't understand that the Fed and other central bankers will do everything in the power to reignite an asset bubble even if it means risking inflation down the road. This may work or it may fail but for them and the financial oligarchs that pull their strings, deflation is simply not an option."
I agree, but missing is any appreciation for the fact that the political environment is getting very hostile to bail outs and monetization, and that is a significant risk. The fact is that the bought politicians expect the financial oligarchs will get them reelected. And when it appears that the financial oligarchs and their captured Fed are driving over an electoral cliff, the politicos resist and the game gets more complex.
I expect that we get a downdraft into late summer, the bottom of the conventional four year cycle.
In the meantime I am grateful to you for keeping us informed about the most recent momentum fads. You are full of shorting ideas. So please continue posting. If crude continues its swan dive and NG goes down to development costs of 4.50 per mcf, then your solars should be delicious toast over the next few months.
We shall see!!
Be careful when shorting solars as you have to be very good to catch the selloffs. And it's not just about oil. The link between crude/NG & solars already started to break, and I expect it to fully decouple in the year ahead.
Retard works for me.
Retard works for me.
Solars are the "leadership" group on the way down the last couple weeks, no doubt about that.
Don't be so hard on yourself. Have those cowbells stopped ringing?
Panning for gold.....and silver!
big short interest in the solars
Big short interest is all part of the blatant manipulation. They'll get squeezed and the stocks will skyrocket higher.
CSIQ and TSL are headed to $15, the shorts will like that.
Leo, Will you kindly STFU already? You add neither
depth of insight nor intelligent commentary. Please
stop, I get stupider everytime I read your stuff (and
that's saying something, right there boy).
You and the rest of the ZH fleas are dumb as nails. Tell mommy to stop breastfeeding you already! Read my new comment above and learn from what I am sharing with you, ya dingbats!
For a 'smart guy', you sure have a hard time figuring things.
Nobody likes you, Leo. Beat it. You're starting to attract flies.
For the record, all you ZH fleas taking anonymous swipes at me are either the very pension pussies I've castigated on my blog or the investment bankers with their heads up their asses. Either way, I'll beat it when I want to leave. Capiche?
Yeah, I heard you beat it.
Sorry, couldn't resist.
Your lips to....
solar only works as long as the Govt keeps increasing tax credits. Germany just announced a cut back in tax credits. At some point this year, solar stocks will implode. Inflate or die...thats the question, what's the answer??
Solars will implode this year? Don't be so quick to make that call. Watch the earnings and the outlook going forward. The cuts in subsidies is OLD news; everyone expected it, but the big hedgies used this news to manipulate & accumulate more.
leo i have been following you for a while because of my interest in solar, not solar stocks. i hope this industry does not get exploited. i am getting a certificate in sustainability management and the local solar company came and talked about investing in long term health of the environment. i find it a really exciting green technology. i would like to think of greening people as well as buildings. he said they are buying their panels from all around the world and the packaging is really recyclable too! you should believe in the science and technology of it as well as making money. peace.
http://www.namastesolar.com/index.htm
I am in the business and can tell you unless there is some new propietary breakthroughs margins are getting squeezed just like the memory chip makers of old. Retail margins for the installation companies makes it almost a sure bet loser.
Customers are getting smarter about the economics of these deals and are starting to push back hard on the money guys reducing their ROI's.
States are broke and are unlikely to expand incentives, and the new CA law is being challanged and diluted by the utinilty companies.
Finally, it will be interested to see if the Chinese Solar companies honor their panel workmanship and performance warranties. We won't touch them, because if they do not pay up, we have to. Try suing a Chinese importer.
"As my buddy Rasputin puts it, its "Inflate or Die".
Is Obama and Congress dumb enough throw out Bernanke and watch the economy implode and trillions of dollars of toxic trash on the Fed's balance sheet get blowtorched??"
They're dumb but they really don't have any other choice. How the hell are any debts getting paid in a massive deflationary depression? Right, they won't get paid.
Deflationary depression means roll over and play dead.
As soon as that hits, the banks might as well close all their shops.
No money going out, no money coming in. No bills getting paid. No mortgages getting paid, no credit cards getting paid. No tax revenues, no welfare cheques. No nothing. Nada, end of story.
That's what deflationary depression means imo.
If Congress fucks with the people, the people will simply roll over and play dead.
take a look at ZION a/h... moon shot. unreal.
that thing has been gamed like a 2 dollar whore of late. though i'm not familiar with their balance sheet issues as i don't follow them, absolutely nobody thinks ZION will make a profit throughout 2010.
some of these regional bank stock prices are going to come down very, very hard in my view.
ya, same is true for most regionals (RF, SNV, etc). Not profitable, gapping wholes in their balance sheets, and somehow, even their NIMs have decreased despite record yc steepness.
but management says, "we think worst is behind us" and BAM, to the moon. its impossible to be short, but i can_NOT justify being long (as is the case with most of the market).
i long for the days where exogenous events seemed to happen near daily ;)
burn it , burn it all
Afterhours QQQQ's are widowmakers. In minutes they went from 44.28 to 44.85, then fell back a moment later to 44.35
Great line Dork from the King Arthur movie.
As far as the market manipulation - business as usual.
We need a resurrection , remember spring time is coming
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rA8MeJFRh04
-
Hey! Speak for yourself!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GmrPvNAy51I
There was a breakdown. It doesn't matter whether we made a new high on Tuesday or not. It was what happened after Tuesday that mattered. It may or may not pan out, of course.
Todays bounce sure did not pan much.... 50% lighter volume and gave up most of the gains by the close.
Mr. Bear is just rubbing his eyes and thinking of coming out of hibernation.
Once he is awake, he will be very hungry. Don't want to be one of those salmon flopping around once he steps to the riverbank.
Right on!
More meat Andy.
This is a depression. Need meat.
Bear is hungry.
You're a good man, Andy, a real good man. Thanks for picking up the slack.
That's nice but why don't you post a topless pic that's artistic and celebrates beauty? Trashy pics have their place but I think we can handle some art here and there. As for me, I find this more inspiring, but most of you may not "get it".
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QWBo2t8WkXM
and speaking of trash... RINO couldn't catch a bid today. that's a ten day slide from 32 to 21, maybe other china stocks next?
Thank you. Think you just saved or created 2 million jobs.
Thank you. Think you just saved or created 2 million jobs.
I like Robo's girl better. She's real and her
trigger finger is at the ready!
Her eyes they shone like the diamonds
You'd think she was queen of the land
And her hair hung over her shoulder
Tied up with a black velvet band.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DfsgHyymG8E
Deadhead,
Buy the dips, the bear is a pussy. LOL
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aaRRMbPwdwc
I do think we've got a bit more of a rally to go, but the top of that rally will be a fantastic short, with a stop at the recent high, for a very nice risk/reward ratio. I doubt new highs are coming, but I don't see any real confirmation of that as yet.
Couldn't even hold the gap up.
"..Hoods and Bosses over at Goldman are cooking up something."
What par/sec of time haven't they done that?
As we used to say on the trading floor. Dead cat bounce is still a DEAD CAT !!!
Grrr...get anew term and buy EDZ.
Pigmen and wildebeests! Love it, but need more ladies.
Texas Instruments' 4Q profit, revenue soar on broad demand for chips.
Robo - i love you man.
However, you must realize that many of us only lurk here at ZH for the wonderful examples of the feminine form that you post during the day.
I have spoken to the people that run the interweb and they have agreed that unless we see more appropriately Robo-like photos within the next day, then action will be taken.
Yours sincerely,
CT
you guys got your 5% pull back, sp1200 is coming
stop bashing and losing people money
What's so magical about a 5% pullback that it requires we immediately go on to new highs? That seems pretty arbitrary to me.
Lame, not magical. Next up, 1080.
About midday in the Forex market strange things started to take shape, immediately after which the whole market became a graveyard. I figured for a decline in the Dollar at the same time as a decline in Gold futures (usually inversely linked- thru purchasing power), a dislocation, one that would ordinarily be just one of those things. Given that it was an Options expiry day, stranger things have happened. In the end, nothing moved except the pound. I think we came this close to seeing the dollar shatter thru support.
I doubt anything of interest can happen to either the dollar or gold until after options expiry tomorrow. But the whole 'dollar rally' looks a little suspect to me. If it had any real legs behind it, should have been able to push through to 79 during this past sell-off. Next couple of days should decide it, though.
Well, it's a lot like how any stock or index can't get past it's first level of resistance on the first time.
Tomorrow is going to be another bear bloodbath, which will be good for the dollar.
They're just tip-toeing toward the door, trying to unload the stuff the pool still has left on its books onto the unsuspecting. Already done cleared out of the integrated oils and basic materials. Now lots of big cap tech and finnies. They need to shepherd the minnows in the opposite direction.
Oct /07 highs were followed by a 17 month decline into the Mar /09 lows... just had 11 month rally ( outlier event in terms of % gain and duration). That retraced ~ 50% of the decline.
so in terms of time 2/3 rds retrace and 50% retrace in price.
time now to retrace this 11 month rally, say a decline to the the 920 level over the next 5.5 months?
Anjiing,
Thats right, we will get a 50% retracement and everyone will be freaking out.
Its "all good" when the market rallies 70% in the face of poor fundementals, on the way back down they will want to change the rules because the evil short sellers are "manipulating" the market.
being called an asshole on Dubai Friday selloff and now a zh flea........
RT - you and Rasputin are onto something. It's too late to go short anyway ahead of the State of the Union address. How do we know that Obama isn't going to set up the "where's my bailout" hotiline and give out $500 checks to all callers? Or maybe, gentle Ben will start dropping crisp $100 bills out of helicopters all over the country? Don't laugh, outside of the helicopters, that may be exactly what will happen.
A trillion here, and a trillion there, and pretty soon even the worse looking stock market will be rising fast.
Robo, the squid and friends are desperately trying to avoid a catastrophe before Feb comes - everyone is watching if we are going to get a negative return in January. If we do, then the read-across with 2004 is over, and then welcome to volatility rest of the year, we would then be in uncharted territory again guys and gals! And those "rear-view mirror experts" like Biggs and Faber would once again be hedging their predictions instead of predicting 10% rise for 2010 (exactly per 2004)] in Davos.
Hey Leo you still here. I would love to get your take
on the 7 billion dollar contract signed by the
Ontario provincial gov't and Samsung.
He might have blown a gasket on this one earlier. ( your really want his take? )
by Leo Kolivakison Mon, 01/25/2010 - 16:35
#205841
You and the rest of the ZH fleas are dumb as nails. Tell mommy to stop breastfeeding you already! Read my new comment above and learn from what I am sharing with you, ya dingbats!
Ida ObaMA DA DA
Words in Obama:
MOB
BAM
bom(b)
Baam (as above, boston pronunciation)
MOAB (Mother of all bombs)
bo(0)m!
=MobBarley
Robo - share your sentiments - add EURYEN cross holding 127.50 as supporting tell as well....thanks for the comprehensive list.
EuroYen was holding 127.30 nicely and bumping up with the market today, but that was before the China news again tonight - and new AIG investigations... just lost 150 bps in the last couple hours.
Seinfeld: "Her hair one of those black velvet scrunchies in
it Jerry"
ES tanking and Bonds may be going up now, the treasury desperately needing some help with their $120b of bonds/notes sale this week maybe?
EuroYen was holding 127.30 nicely and bumping up with the market today, but that was before the China news again tonight
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