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Currency devaluation is here: Traders seeing SNB intervention to weaken frank. Swiss Bank unavailable for comment.
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Quick... what's the Swiss word for "HOLY CRAP"????
That's a trick question, btw...
Merde! (if you're in Lausanne)
Scheizer
the Swiss word is: 'heilige schiisdräck'.
How about heilige scheiss ?
The Swiss don't seem to be too concerned.
The SMI was the only major index that I follow (aside from the Nikkei) that DIDN'T close below its mid-Bollinger on the weekly.
Frankly, I don't know exactly what to make of the strength in the SMI . . .
SANTO SCAT
For you and the other linguists above,
Thank you for improving my word power.
I was wondering what the deal was with the Swissie these past few days. It has not been acting at all "normal." Usually, it is my favorite pair to trade (USD/CHF...) but I had a real bad feeling about it.
Too bad. Coulda made a bundle.
Coulda lost my ass, too.
:D
Hi all,
I really find it amazing that people are playing on FOREX, trying to guess the moves. You have no chance for two simple reasons.
1) you do not have enough money to challenge, US banks with access to FED window or other mega big fishes in the water.
2) you do not have access to mainstream media which can steer the markets by putting more focus on trouble in Euro, Japan, or USA.
I think we will be getting into more and more volatile currency markets. The mega fish love volatily which they can steer because they can choose right side and wait for you and the public to act on the information fed by their media. Some of you may win big time but majority of you is being slaughter. Even if you are a psychic and can predict their move they will front-run-you so they can steal some money from you anyway.
I refuse to play their games. I watch and have fun while they are throwing dirt at each other trying to save their FIAT currency at the expense of somebody's else currency.
They are all playing with matches at the gasoline station trying to put on fire somebody's else car.
best,
Radek
And you have a better chance in the stock market which is much more easily manipulated???
Uhhh, sorry pal but:
FOREX >> BOND MARKET >>>>>> STOCK MARKET
Or you can just "keep it simple stupid" and buy PM's.
+1
I've heard from investor that the Brazil real was in trouble. Now it's the Swiss Franc. Can someone tell me what the hell is really going on. I'm a widower on fixed income.
You're going to get this sort of volatility with any fiat currency, particuarly one with a high debt to GDP ratio. This is why you hear people on here harp on having at least some of your assets in precious metals (such as silver or gold.)
SANTO MIERDO?
It's disgusting that even the Swiss have resorted to this mess. The last bastion of stability has gone to hell. They did this last year and fried me as I got caught leaning the wrong way.
It is probably safe to get short here, as the economic fundamentals have not changed. They can buy all the Euros they want, but it won't stop the leak in the boat.
Nothing new here- the SNB intervened back in March '09, as well. Given the move back then, you'd like to see it gain a little bit more on the euro before selling the cross, but with the incredibly weak EU fundamentals, this probably is a good place to open a position.
Short as in 117
Broke above 200 day ma - maybe it's a machine selling.
Nothing matches the Euro. It is decimated to the early July level...
My charts have EUR/USD to 1.250. can't go wrong getting long-term short here.
Short as in 117
... on purpose and well manipulated ...
Absolutely. Somehow, Unca Ben and his fellow Jean-Claude have an agreement to allow their currencies to be trashed in turn.
Works for me!
Don't they all have an agreement?
Well, there are 4 official languages over there, not including English or slang.What was that question ?
"What was the question?"
The question is--how come Saturday Night Live is messing with the Swiss currency. This is an outrage!
Oh wait. It's SNB, not SNL.
Never mind.
Emily
would they do this outside of regular working hours (cet time)?
(i guess if you consider the usual weekend bailouting from the US side, the answer would be yes...)
I believe that they would have to purchase Euros through the Swiss National Bank and this can only be done when the 4X market is open.
ok, i guess my point was that this happened Friday after 6pm CET time i.e. outside of regular Swiss banking hours...
AAaaannnd, the race to the fx bottom resumes with added vigor.
If so, why aren't Precious Metals taking off?
Because they're terribly overvalued as it is and set up for further downside?
MB- I really appreciate the fact that you (a) are open-minded, (b) don't fall into the 'group-think' mentality, and (c) aren't afraid to speak your mind in the face of inevitable criticism.
This may or may not be in your wheelhouse, but what are your thoughts on a long-term secular trend of dollar strength v. euro (EUR/USD weakness, and subsequent GBP/USD weakness and USD/CHF strength, as well), matched with emerging market currency strength v. the dollar (and most every other currency)?
This is something I've been contemplating for a while, and comes from the level of indebtedness across the globe (U.S.- not good; Europe- bad; Japan- ugly), coupled with the well established trend of capital flows out of the U.S. and Europe towards emerging markets. Granted, don't look for Russia to participate, given their government controls and aging population, but certainly Brazil, India and China stand to offer the best prospects for growth AND capital investment for the next 'x' number of years.
Here's a few additional reading, if you're interested:
WSJ.com - The Ugly Truth Behind the Dollar and Euro
WSJ.com - Experts See Another Global Dip Ahead
Thanks, and I'll be interested to hear your thoughts.
If I may, I'd like to offer my 2c which is not a definitive answer but should give food for thought for further inquiry.
I am squarely in the deflationist camp brought about by credit market deleveraging. Typically, in an deflationary environment one would expect the currency to strengthen. The US$ being the world reserve currency and most of global credit being denominated in US$, the Dollar should theoretically benefit from a deflationary outcome.
My dilemma is that in 100years since the creation of the modern Dollar, the currency has been inflated to a few basis points of complete debasement. And now with de facto quantitative easing to monetize US sovereign debt (that other sovereigns cannot or do not want to purchase as contemplated by the current floating exchange rate mechanism), the debasement has presumably reached nuclear proportions.
I run currency charts and I monitor them daily. I am currently long UUP and most of my investments are in bullion and US$ denominated instruments. So, technically, I am 100% long the US$ with UUP acting as leverage I suppose.
So far, it looks to me like the US$ has more upside thus potentially confirming a deflationary outcome. But monetary policy tells me that the US$ is doomed.... the question is timing I suppose.
My currency charts are on page 3
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID3585763
I wonder what Jim Rogers has to say about this.
Is it possible that James Cameron only got it half right in Terminator? When Skynet becomes self-aware, it doesn't attack the humans... instead it eats the market? Perhaps out-of-control trades taste like McDonalds burgers to a self-aware computer.
NICE!
USD/CHF and EUR/USD move inverse, but I thought the spike in USD/CHF was because 1.0550 was a technical level with a lot of buys ready to jump onboard.
Don't think the SNB is involved here. It is Friday. They went home at noon. When they intervene they do it against the Euro, not the dollar. So this is not intervention.
But I am curious what it is. It looks like someone had something to do and leaned into an illiquid market??
All it would take is a good rumor to get it started. Maybe someone somewhere heard that they would be buying Euros and passed it off as gospel.
If that someone had been leaning into an illiquid market, from the looks of this move, that soemone would have to have been ginormous.
And the intervention was indeed in EURCHF, about 2 bln. USDCHF obviously had to move up as well.
Hi all,
I really find it amazing that people are playing on FOREX, trying to guess the moves. You have no chance for two simple reasons.
1) you do not have enough money to challenge, US banks with access to FED window or other mega big fishes in the water.
2) you do not have access to mainstream media which can steer the markets by putting more focus on trouble in Euro, Japan, or USA.
I think we will be getting into more and more volatile currency markets. The mega fish love volatily which they can steer because they can choose right side and wait for you and the public to act on the information fed by their media. Some of you may win big time but majority of you is being slaughter. Even if you are a psychic and can predict their move they will front-run-you so they can steal some money from you anyway.
I refuse to play their games. I watch and have fun while they are throwing dirt at each other trying to save their FIAT currency at the expense of somebody's else currency.
They are all playing with matches at the gasoline station trying to put on fire somebody's else car.
best,
Radek
Repeat.
Why aren't PM taking off if the race to the bottom is on?
Why is it that 99.99% of all the shorting comes during COMEX hours?
Hello? McFly? Is anybody home?
Bingo! We have a winner. Check out the short PM positions held by JPMorgan, especially silver. PMs will rocket when it is time - regretfully, that time is a bit longer away. First, PMs must participate further to the downside when the equities deleverage. Then gold/silver and other PMs will decouple from other commodities (copper et al) and go incrementally higher until the fiat world becomes patently unsustainable - then blast off!
Hi all,
I really find it amazing that people are playing on FOREX, trying to guess the moves. You have no chance for two simple reasons.
1) you do not have enough money to challenge, US banks with access to FED window or other mega big fishes in the water.
2) you do not have access to mainstream media which can steer the markets by putting more focus on trouble in Euro, Japan, or USA.
I think we will be getting into more and more volatile currency markets. The mega fish love volatily which they can steer because they can choose right side and wait for you and the public to act on the information fed by their media. Some of you may win big time but majority of you is being slaughter. Even if you are a psychic and can predict their move they will front-run-you so they can steal some money from you anyway.
I refuse to play their games. I watch and have fun while they are throwing dirt at each other trying to save their FIAT currency at the expense of somebody's else currency.
They are all playing with matches at the gasoline station trying to put on fire somebody's else car.
best,
Radek
This started on Monday. Lots of resistance @ 92
Nothing to worry about folks.
Larry Summers said in Davos that the dollar is going to be around for a looooong time.
Happy days are here again. Phew, I was getting worried there for a moment.....
Bank holiday soon...monday?
This makes it much easier for central europe to pay its loans. Also easier to re-finance. so its great news for the EU actually. They have been trying to engineer this for a while now.
CHF bounces back after hours
Buying opportunity in FXF.
Dollar Swiss has been bullish for some time - like the US dollar.
Go long.
UPDATES:
http://www.zerohedge.com/forum/market-outlook-0
Swiss National Bank discontinues provision of US dollar
liquidity
In coordination with other central banks, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) confirms the
expiration, on 1 February 2010, of its temporary reciprocal currency arrangements (swap
lines) with the US Federal Reserve. These lines were established to counter pressures in
global US dollar funding markets. Given the improvement in conditions on these markets
over the past year, the swap lines are no longer needed. Central banks will continue to
cooperate as needed.
In this context, the SNB, in agreement with the Federal Reserve, the European Central
Bank, the Bank of England and the Bank of Japan, will discontinue its US dollar repo
operations with effect from 31 January 2010.
http://www.snb.ch/en/mmr/reference/pre_20100127/source/pre_20100127.en.pdf