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"The System is Anti-US"
"The System is Anti-US"
What a wild month this has been.
There is plenty of POMO power left in the Fed's gun with Stock World Weekly reporting $28Bn in the first 4 days of the week to be showered on our Bankster buddies. Also on the schedule are New Home Sales on Tuesday, Durable Goods and Home Prices on Wednesday, GDP (2nd Estimate) along with the usual Jobless Claims on Thursday and Friday, in case anyone hasn't left early for the long weekend - it's Personal Income and Spending along with PCE Prices AND Pending Home Sales.
So Friday could be a REALLY depressing day on the data front, where we see incomes dropping, prices inflating and home sales dropping off a cliff - all ahead of a holiday weekend that will make or break the retail season with gas still around $4 a gallon (35% more than last year).
None of that matters though, as long as the Dollar behaves itself and refrains from showing any signs of life. NO ONE wants to see a strong Dollar - especially the guys who are in charge of it in America.
On January 19th, 2010, with the S&P at 1,150 - I asked the question "Have the Markets Become Comfortably Numb?" They're apparently indifferent to bad news. "I have a theory that the markets (and the American people in general) aren’t irrational, they are simply shell-shocked after suffering a very traumatic group financial experience..."
While we do expect a major correction (20%) at some point, we won't be surprised at all to hold our 10% lines first and then move even higher - maybe on QE3 or whatever else it takes to try to make things look pretty into the elections. We also won't be surprised if we completely blow out now though - sorry not to be more definitive (other than to be short-term bearish), but so much is currently riding on a very unstable situation in Europe.
Back on my bearish weekend update of January 16th, 2010, I gave my "bullish" premise on the market, outlining Bernanke's plan, implemented by his Bankster Masters through the largest run-up in speculative positions every achieved (so far):
That is how we are "fixing" the economy. It turns out you may not be able to get blood from a stone but we sure can bleed US and global consumers dry through commodity speculation that completely ignores the fundamentals of supply and demand in order to dig into consumers’ pockets and pull out that last dollar. This is a mainstay of the "Dooh Nibor Economy" and is, of course, great for us top 10% club members as we already know the bottom 90% are tapped out.
By getting that extra $20 for gas each week from 165M drivers, WE make sure that $3.3Bn goes to people who will actually spend it on stuff – further boosting the GDP. Add another $5Bn in mandatory grocery spending (becaues EVERYONE needs to eat - muhaha) and we’re getting $431Bn from those poor cheapskates, who would only save it or pay off some debt if left to their own devices (and we don’t need them to pay off their loans – that’s the government’s job!).
How much was gas in January 2010? $2.10 wholesale. In January of 2011, we hit $2.50 ($8 more per 20-gallon tank) and recently we hit $3.40 ($26 more per 20-gallon tank), but pulling back before the pain at the pump becomes too much for the consumer to bear and the rest of the market begins to buckle under the weight of a consumer pullback. This pullback came a bit prematurely due, in large part, to a premature run in greed that hit this February, as gas prices shot up from $2.50 to $3 in about 2 weeks in celebration of the Jasmine Revolution in the Middle East.
As I mentioned on Thursday - there was no shortage of gasoline and no interruption in supply and certainly no increase in demand as Americans are using 7% LESS oil products than last year, but don't let FACTS get in the way of a good, speculative story. And this is where the greed got out of control because, while Americans live lives of overconsumption and waste and can be squeezed to pay more and more for necessities by manipulative speculators who form cartels to control the markets - the rest of the World is on a tighter budget and other nations are falling like dominoes - one by one - into cycles of inflation, debt, poverty, rebellion and chaos.
Will they get on TV and tell you to BUYBUYBUY China on "the dip" as the Shanghai Composite falls to 340, 320, 300, 280 (support), etc and then will they change their tune and tell you to SELLSELLSELL at exactly the point at which you SHOULD begin buying - between 240 and 200? Only time will tell, but it's probably a good time to review our post-crash review and remember what it was like back then and just how wrong the idiots on the idiot box can be.
If you watch the video of that last link, it reminds us how the MSM "reassures" us as the markets, and the entire economy, are falling apart. They don't work for you - you are one of millions and you contribute pennies to their bottom line through the value of your eyeballs. Who does pay them? The Financials, the oil companies, the gold companies, the brokers - what do you expect them to say? NBC/CNBC/MSNBC was owned by GE, for goodness sakes - did you really think they were going to tell you the truth?
Cash is not our enemy right now - cash is your friend. That's why we have deployed very little of it in our conservative portfolios. I have been saying for quite some time that the Dollar below 73 was a buy and that in itself is an investing premise as there is no shame in cashing our our bullish winners and "investing" in US dollars to mark our assets through a period of market uncertainty, such as this one. While we do need one desperately, the revolution in America is probably a long-time coming - unless the Fall TV schedule is really awful - in which case this country won't make it to Christmas. But, probably it will be business as usual and the World will burn while America fiddles and that's what keeps other nations flying to the Dollar for safety - no matter how many of those suckers Uncle Ben and Timmy print up.
So how screwed up is the rest of the World? Remember, they are competing with the US, who have set the bar at "very screwed up," which we thought would guarantee us a spot in the finals but already we have been leap-frogged by Ireland, Spain (pictured left), Greece AND Portugal in Europe as well as Egypt, Tunesia, Libya, etc and, if you think things are great in China, you are just not paying attention.
The best quote of the year came out of Spain (thank SWW!) and is already spreading far and wide with people protesting against a regime of banks,
business and politicians they perceive as corrupt.
“Maribel,” a 21-year old who declined to give a
last name, said the demonstrations are not about
politics:“It’s (about) change. We are fed up with
the L’Oreals, McDonald’s, Coca-Cola. We are not anti-system, the system is anti-us, and you don't know how to stop us.”
"The system is anti-us" - well that pretty much sums it up for the bottom 99% and what despicable arrogance on the part of our elitist "leaders" that they felt they could just ignore the vast bulk of humanity while they fattened themselves at the trough (see my "2010 Outlook - A Tale of Two Economies") along with the fat-cats who fund their puppet careers. "Those who make peaceful revolution impossible, make violent revolution inevitable" said John F. Kennedy and it was Jefferson who said "EVERY generation needs a new revolution" but, of course, he was a rabble-rouser, wasn't he?
"And you don't know how to stop us" UNDERSTANDS the 21 year-old Spanish girl... With each success by one group of revolutionaries the next group is emboldened to take to the streets and protest - how long before they tire of that and take up arms? It's already happening in Libya, which has a full-blown civil war and Iraqis are rebelling against yet another repressive regime (oh wait, that's us!) and even India, China and Russia have their share of unrest at this stage. Heck, we've even had protests in this country but, fortunately, the press can label anyone who protests as being "pro-union" or, even worse, "liberal" and that allows them to be brushed off from serious consideration because we all know that unions are evil, right? I mean, come on - THAT's THE SYSTEM!
And that system is anti-us if by we mean the United States of America and what it used to stand for. "All men are created equal" unless of course they happen to be created in a poor school district, in which case their chance of getting into college is less than 1/3 of that of someone born to an upper-income household. Good luck with that whole "life, liberty and pursuit of happiness" thing if you haven't got money as well.
That was all fine when the majority of people in this country had enough money to consider themselves "middle class" but that middle class line has drifted up to almost $70,000 of family income and, even for those lucky enough to be at that level there has been a terrible erosion of disposable income that actually leaves a modern dual-income family taking home $67,800 a year WORSE OFF than a 1970s single-income family making $38,700 a year (middle class at that time).
We borrowed our assets off on an extend and pretend spree that's gone on since Al Gore's "lock box" was broken into to fund upper class tax cuts at the turn of the century. Here we are 11 years later and the average family is $113,000 in debt - and that's real, actual Household Debt, not counting the $163,000 share of the national debt that we will, in theory, have to pay off at some point as well.
Of course keep in mind that half the people in the country see these numbers and laugh because there's no chance they will EVER pay that off and 1% of the country sees those numbers and laughs because it represents less than 1% of their wealth and, ultimately, if the country gets real and decides to pay off the debts - we can't tax the bottom 50% more but the top 1% know that they can argue that it would be "UnAmerican" for them to pay a bigger share so, ultimately, the top 50% will all equally be assessed, perhaps $300,000 and the top 1% will complain about the unfairness of having to give up 2% of their net worth while the middle 50-99%, who average $30,000 of disposable income - will work 10 years to pay it off or simply suffer the oppressive austerity measure that are even now being forced on Ireland, Greece and Portugal by their lenders.
Your Government will have to say: We can't afford medical care (and the rich don't care, more for them), we can't afford affordable housing (and the rich don't care, more for them), we can't afford to educate our children (and the rich don't care, your kids can't compete), we can't afford to feed our children (and the rich don't care, more for their kids), we can't afford to fix the roads (New York's last fiscal crisis caused me to buy a Range Rover so I could laugh over potholes), we can't afford parks or museums or zoos (rich people take their kids on trips to those kind of places), we can't afford libraries (rich kids have kindles), we can't afford police protection (rich people live in gated communities), etc...
How long will Generations X and Y put up with that? On Friday I discussed the Boomers, who are heading into retirement this year and forming the beginning of a 20-year bubble that is already too much for our over-stressed, under-funded system to handle. What will happen over the next 10 years as 50M more people retire and the 10 after that as the first 50M people move into assisted-care facilities while another 50M people retire?
It won't be quite that bad as not everyone lives that long but, unless we start hunting them down - old people simply are not dying fast enough to stop the chart on the left from happening and we are only halfway to peak population of people over 65 from where we were for most of the last 40 years and this chart doesn't even assume we get better at curing things and increase overall longevity - which could be an even bigger disaster if it happens before 2070, when we are past "peak age."
I'll be 100 by then anyway so I'm not too worried about it as I enter that 85 and up line right about on schedule in 2050. Already I have no illusions that will be able to rely on the US Government to take care of me as I move up the lines on this chart but, unfortunately, 90% of the people in this country have less than $40,000 to retire on. This isn't a result of poor planning - they have no access to disposable income in the first place - not to mention that 12.25% of their income has been put aside for Social Security their whole lives and the Government, like Otter in Animal House, now has only has this to say to American Workers:
Will the American people take it lying down? As Dean Wormer said in the same movie: "Fat, drunk and stupid is no way to go through life." Unfortunately, our sponsors at MCD, BUD and the American Education system would have to disagree with that statement and any attempt to "regulate" them or improve our health or educational standards... well THAT is met with protests! Our current math scores rank us right along side Italy, Greece, Spain, Portugal and Turkey (perhaps there is a connection between a population that sucks at math and a nation that is drowning in debts?) but our national reading scores are still in-line with what you would expect from a developed nation as we are within 8% of catching up to South Korea in reading (12% behind in Math) - so we have that goal to shoot for (but don't ever look at where we rank compared to Asia - that's just sad)!
Try Phil's Stock World here >
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Good to see a Phil Davis article. More of the same would be good for zh.
Too many stupid assholes.
""And you don't know how to stop us" UNDERSTANDS the 21 year-old Spanish girl"
Alas, they do, especially when you are expected to go heavily into debt to go to college to "learn" things like identify politics, or hope for a public sector job (or one that is dependant upon government funds) or is in the FIRE ecosystem or is a service job that depends upon folks tossing around money in exchange for "experiences".
Enter into the above and you become utterly dependant upon the Matrix. Why has Egypt's Old Guard managed to hold on? Because 70% of the nation's employees work for the government. If they bring down the government, they eliminate 70% of the breadwinners-- at least temporarily. That's one hell of a stong built-in counter-revolution.
Master a real portable skill/trade: aquaculture, masonry, small engine repair, merchant marines, assaying, etc. so that you can ply your trade wherever it is valued. Then go to where you are free and appreciated; go to where you are not raped by bailouts, taxes, regulations or endless wars.
Alright, drop the Brain and back away slowly -- that way, no one gets hurt...:>D
College is still relevant? The College Degree is the new High School Diploma, every body's got one. And few of them are worth much anymore.
The whining in this article is papable-life of so unfair. I'm fat, lazy and stupid can I collect SS disability? The mantra of the liberal welfare state which is the source of all our economic misery. When did the debt problems in this country emerge? During the "great society" and the Vietnam war intervention. When did "intergovermental borrowing" from SS start? Under LJB. The more the government intervenes in private lives, the worse things become. Europe is a mess and we want to emulate them? The more large institutions control medical care and education the more expensive they become and price becomes irrelevant to decision making since its other people's money. People become more dependent-and whine more. Or please help me dear government worker!
Don't know where to start there is so much wrong with this article. High taxes to redistribute wealth via a strong welfare state has been tried and tried again and it just isn't working, is it? We can complain about the income gap, we can complain about capitalism (which it isn't) and we can complain about the media but so what?
We don't have capitalism. Capitalism is about capital formation, it comes from savings. Do we save? Not really.
Life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness doesn't mean you will succeed, it means you get to try and you know the rules.
If anything we know the rules are different for different folks, that is the problem, not the rest of the rant.
Unions are cartels, special rules for them. Government unions are the worst, they don't really do arms length negotiations, do they?
Hayek said it well when he said (paraphrased) "if you want equal outcomes you have to treat people differently". So, ilene, who do you want to punish? You seem to think you know what is best.
How about creating the environment where competition really is possible, no special deals, no special tax breaks, no special regulations to favor "our friends", no special bailouts, and where success is rewarded and failure is punished.
How about a change to the political system where the only folks who can donate to a politician is someone who is a real, living, breathing person? No corporations, no pacs, no unions, no special interest organizations. Only real, live, living people. And how about documenting each donation. That way, we'd know who was who's bitch wouldn't we?
Salud.
Greenhead, I agree with at least part of what you're saying, I think. Some parts require further thought but here's a start:
High taxes to redistribute wealth via a strong welfare state has been tried and tried again and it just isn't working, is it?
The ideas of redistributing wealth and a welfare state are hard to discuss without looking at the context. When the playing field is as unfair as it is now, then these are more like bandaid solutions to a greater problem in the first place.
We don't have capitalism...
Agreed.
<<Life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness doesn't mean you will succeed, it means you get to try and you know the rules.>>
And there should be rules, and the rules should be fair, and there should be a reasonable safety net/practical options for those who simply can't compete.
<If anything we know the rules are different for different folks, that is the problem,.>>
Yeah.
Hayek said it well when he said (paraphrased) "if you want equal outcomes you have to treat people differently". So, ilene, who do you want to punish? You seem to think you know what is best.
Non-equal outcomes is fine with me, but the distortions we have now, the lack of anything even close to an even playing field, is way too extreme. Some people able to make $400K per year vs. some making $40K per year is one thing, but people bringing in tens of millions in bonuses/year (for their great work at their Ibanks) is another thing - after a certain ridiculous level, I'd have no problem taxing and redistributing their gains.
<<How about creating the environment where competition really is possible, no special deals, no special tax breaks, no special regulations to favor "our friends", no special bailouts, and where success is rewarded and failure is punished.>>
I agree with that, and your next statement - in some ways, I'd likely go further when it comes to the relationship between big business and government.
<<How about a change to the political system where the only folks who can donate to a politician is someone who is a real, living, breathing person? No corporations, no pacs, no unions, no special interest organizations. Only real, live, living people. And how about documenting each donation. That way, we'd know who was who's bitch wouldn't we?>>
+1
It is unreal how unfree Amerika has become. Economist has been running good articles about this recently. So many "professions" are regulated you cannot do anything without buying your way in or the guild police stop you, like the african immigrant who was doing african hair braids. Nope cant do that, not licensed. Or the people making yogurt according to an ethnic recipe in California. Nope cant do that, need a massive pasteurization program (even thought they were using pasteurized milk, and of course repasteurizing is illegal too - Kafka would be proud). Or how about the new pogrom against raw milk? Or maybe the EPA requiring dairy farms to have oil spill mitigation programs. You cant make this stuff up. I could go on and on and on and on in this vein. Home of the brave, maybe. Land of the free? Not so much. Government is the problem, not the answer. This article seems to imply the opposite.
The Euro needs more money relative to credit - Gold provides the relief valve in Euroland - Gold needs to go much much higher.
The dollar might hold out for a while but Eurogold is going to kill it eventually - its been planned for a long long time.
"there was no shortage of gasoline and no interruption in supply and certainly no increase in demand as Americans are using 7% LESS oil products than last year, but don't let FACTS get in the way of a good, speculative story."
Lost of about 1.2 to 2 Mpbd from Libya
800 Kpbd cut from KSA in April.
These two cuts in supply are significant!
Peak Oil production is behind us (2005 - Peak Conventional Oil Production, 2008 - Peak for both Conventional and Non-Conventional Oil). Supplies will continue to decline forever, but expect prices to whipsaw as demand destruction causes prices to suddenly drop and slowly rise and demand increases will production declines. This will continue for many years.
Food prices are rising because of supply issues. Weather has had a major impact (drought in Russia that wiped out exports. Drought in the US southern states, Too much rain in the North) Average age of US farmers is about 67, and many are starting to retire, and few people are replacing them. China and India also faced issues with Agraculture last year and this year too.
" I have been saying for quite some time that the Dollar below 73 was a buy and that in itself is an investing premise as there is no shame in cashing our our bullish winners and "investing" in US dollars to mark our assets through a period of market uncertainty, such as this one"
Dollar is only recovering because bad things are happening elsewhere such as the Japan Nuclear\Electricity Crisis that has wiped out about 40% of Japan electricity production. and the PIGS. Japan's crisis is inflationary in the US as parts imported dry up causing prices for what's left in inventory\and small quantity of new parts from japan or other overseas manufacturers isn't enough to meet demand. Prices will rise until demand meets supply. The US South is likely has entered a long term drought that will last decades causing decreased food production, also driving up prices (plus the loss of retiring skilled farmers).
A showdown over the budget is coming, and whatever the outcome is, a credit downgraded is gaurenteed. Damned if the cut spending, Damned if they don't. Cutting spending will send the economy into a recession causing Tax revenues to dive again, causing deficit to GDP to get much worse. Not cutting spending will grow the debt, and force the Fed to unleash even more QE as the global bond market isn't big enough to hande the $125 to $175 Billion per month of new debt. Don't forget about all the Muni-debt that needs financing.
Bottom line, the Dollar rebuild is a short term event. It will likely slip below 70 by the end of the year or Q1 2012. Greece will be cut loose from the Euro (probably this fall), buying the Euro a bit more time. The loss of Greece from the Euro isn't a big deal. France and German banks will be bailed out by the ECD instead of hoping the Greece will pay them back.
Agreed, but.................
You can put lipstick on a Pig and it's still a Pig.
If nothing dramatically changes, 70 will be the 2012 High.
Heck, we've even had protests in this country but, fortunately, the press can label anyone who protests as being "pro-union" or, even worse, "liberal" and that allows them to be brushed off from serious consideration because we all know that unions are evil, right?
Tea Party protests, town hall ass-kickings, 2010 elections, et al, don't count as protests? You must be keeding!
People pissed off about the politicians habitual lying and bailouts exist across party boundaries.
This is a joke right? As in sarcastic?
Tea Party protests, town hall ass-kickings, 2010 elections, et al, don't count as protests? You must be keeding!
No, those were not protests...........
Those were Terrorists,cloaked in the 1st Amendment.
Unfortuantely the .gov agencies and DHS are like the Admin, and have rejected that out of hand.
New rules, new laws, and speak against any, your a Terrorist.
I submit the REAL terrorists are making the So called new laws.
As we shall soon see, and FEEL.
ilene, good points but the real reason for "America's" decline is not because of "greed", consumption, or other well worn cultural vices.
Banks like "the blues don't care whose got 'em, tears don't care were they fall", do not "care" about "people". They aren't built for that, that is not their raison d'etre.
The US decline (debt based) is because of Gov't involvement, European style. Greece, Italy, Spain, Portugal have always (100 years) been debt laden, depreciating currencies.
What has happened in US is that we have moved toward the European model, and once Gov't climbs in bed with corporates, by passing "regulations" only the corporates have the financial bandwith to compete. And given this advantage of course they will act in self interest.
Once the Fed loses their de facto (as opposed to the de jure) independence and along with the Treasury and Congress, pursue a politically correct, one could argue European monetary policy (e.g. negative int rates, 0% down housing, chicken in every pot), it always go badly.
Positive real interest rates, lower (flat?) taxes, and less regulation has always been the ticket to strong socio-economic structures/cultures.
The banks are only doing it because the "rules" are stacked in their favor by the Gov't regulation.
Like Europe, the Fed and Treasury's policies have encouraged oligopolies in sectors like banking. We are merely seeing those indivduals reap the benefits.
Clown - What do all these places have in common? Ans: A central bank. End the Fed to reverse the decline.
The US decline (debt based) is because of Gov't involvement, European style. Greece, Italy, Spain, Portugal have always (100 years) been debt laden, depreciating currencies.
Yo Phil!
Anti-GOVERNMENT UNION does not mean ANTI-UNION.
Get that through your thick fuckin' skull, please.
LOL! It's all L’Oreals fault!
Do you mean the Cucumber Splash or the whole cosmetics/plastic lifestyle thing. Both can be liberating or demeaning, depending on your self-image. Girls just wanna have fun. If your local Central Banker is killing the fun, maybe you need new bankers, and a new currency.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y8HIX57wDoM&feature=related
Snow cuts loose from the frozen
Until it joins with the African sea
In moving it changes its cold and its name
The reason I come and go is the same
Animal game for me
You call it rain
But the human name
Doesn't mean shit to a tree
If you don't mind heat in your river and
Fork tongue talking from me
Swim like an eel fantastic snake
Take my love when it's free
Electric feel with me
You call it loud
But the human crowd
Doesn't mean shit to a tree
Change the strings and notes slide
Change the bridge and string shift down
Shift the notes and bridge sings
Fire eating people
Rising toys of the sun
Energy dies without body warm
Icicles ruin your gun
Water my roots the natural thing
Natural spring to the sea
Sulfur springs make my body float
Like a ship made of logs from a tree
Redwoods talk to me
Say it plainly
The human name
Doesn't mean shit to a tree
Snow called water going violent
Dam the end of the stream
Too much cold in one place breaks
That's why you might know what I mean
Consider how small you are
Compared to your scream
The human dream
Doesn't mean shit to a tree
"Did we lay back when the Germans attack Peal Harbor, when the CIA took down WTC, when Congress saved wall st?, Oh forget it..."
Not sure if you were trying to be funny with the Germans attacking Peal Harbor comment? We all hope you do know the Japanese attacked Pearl Harbor.
Progressive revisonist history is a bitch.
Landrew. Animal House. Available from Netflix. Rent it.
+1
To the US as a nation the great levers of change and progress are in free enterprise. This thesis is taking the biggest butt bashing in its history; since the great depression, in the current demise of financialized capitalism on globalized scale. The emerging European thesis rejects this simple vision of economic progress based on so called perfect free markets, dominated by multinational behemoths and realises that in civilization Man is at the center of the equation. Not a peripheral; when the paradigm imposes productivity gains and labor cost flexibility at the expense of local employment through globalization and international labor arbitrage.
Now the European revolt will feed the search for another paradigm which is not productivist and not globalized for ALL types of products and services. Some economic areas will require to be socially oriented and local labor oriented. This is heresy to pure marketeers. So it will be interesting to see how the cookie crumbles. In order for a new paradigm to emerge there is one obvious precondition : the age of American hegemony must end and allow people of different cultures and resource bases to experiment this search for a new paradigm.
Will this lead to protectionism and rise of xenophobic nationalism and risks of war?
Only time will tell. But the collapse of global plutocratic financialized model is a game changer world wide. So change is now inevitable at a global level.
Will this new generational mood like in the 1960s create a momentum away from the corporatocracy model? It is too early to tell. Those who are wise in life's ways just smile and see it as a storm in a tea cup. Like peace and love in 1969!
My intuitive feeling is that we must stay market oriented ad productivity keyed for all goods and services to achieve improvement and progress. But this could be more oriented on a regional/ continental basis as opposed to a global basis, where productivity gains measured in terms of product quality gains are sacrificed for pure labor arbitrage reasons. Europe and USA will never be able to compete with Bengladesh on labor cost basis. But on quality content basis, yes. How this plays out on a continental basis via quality barriers (carbon imprint etc.) to protect/encourage local production still has to be defined/investigated.
Lastly, a continent like Europe does have cultural cohesion and size to define a coherent and innovative market model on its own, importing essentially what it lacks locally.
I'd agree with everything she is saying while she is wearing that yellow tank top (but she does have a point, nonetheless).
I find her message distracting
Yup – all of this was excellent stuff. I enjoyed the article, the sign of the chick with the nice rack, the rack of the chick with the nice sign, and the Animal House clip. Thanks ilene.