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Systemic Crisis Solution: Buy Bonds, REITs and Banks
Another horrific reversal of the "risk-on" / "risk-off" trade today, as investors were spooked over the possible financial implosion of Greece. And in today's "mouseclick" world, hedge fund managers hit the "eject" button and sold anything and everything related to emerging markets and piled into safety assets.
And exactly what were those "safety assets?"
No. 1: Bonds
Apparently, billions more in Treasuries will need to be floated soon, so risk assets were taken out and shot in order to get everyone to flee back into Treasuries.
Our foreign debt enablers will always resort to bond purchases in the event of any and all slowdowns in their own economy so that the "resilient consumer" here in the U.S. gets another shot of cheap money with which to buy more toys.
No. 2: REITS
What better place to hide but in an ETF impervious to any material correction and pays a handsome yield?
No. 3: Banks
Of course, the obvious place to place your money in the event of a global, catastrophic financial failure which could send a tidal wave across the OTC derivative market? Domestic bank stocks:
Over at the Hi-Fi desk, the chumps are having a tough time manhandling these psycho chicks...
And what's up with the daily volume spikes in this stock??
Still stuck in the range.
Which way? Which way?
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Greece feels like another Dubai, ie. lots of hot air. As I stated before, buy any major dip before next Friday's jobs report. Today's market action:
Most active gainers:
NYSE
Nasdaq
Amex
Most active decliners:
NYSE
Nasdaq
Amex
What is your take on next Friday's jobs report?
I got burned last time, but I am very optimistic on jobs for Q1 2010. Keep an eye out for the Conference Board's US leading economic indicators:
http://www.conference-board.org/economics/bci/pressRelease_output.cfm?cid=1
Due out tomorrow. If it's still rising, it's positive for jobs. I am buying this dip on stocks.
"I am very optimistic on jobs for Q1 2010."
'Our' government is so desperate on jobs, they will be paying people to dig holes one day and go back to fill them in the next before much longer.
I also wouldn't be surprised in the least to see "an improvement in the numbers" via more gaming of the numbers and language used in the reports in the coming months to obfuscate or otherwise hide reality.
You forgot about the guys that will supervise the diggers, and the guys from the EPA that will take soil samples and check them for "lead levels" or "dioxin" or something like that, and the ones to supervise the ones who are taking the soil samples, etc....
Actually, now come to think of it, if we can employ this many people digging a hole with shovels,...let's make them dig the holes with teaspoons!!!! We can employ 100 times as many people.
We'll have an entire "hole based" economy.
"'Our' government is so desperate on jobs" That they will make the number up like they have been for the past year.
Don't forget to trade heavily on the made up jobs numbers.
This place is a 3-ring circus of wrong.
Any day now, the sun is going to blow up.
I got burned last time
Understatement of the decade...I got burned last time...hahahahaha....
What does logic tell you? Alternatively you could ask
your favorite economist. No sarcasm meant
They just got done back loading December unemployment so they can report better report better than expected numbers for Q1. Anybody remember that...SI
Kolivakis feels like Kramer, i.e. lots of hot air.
Seriously, Leo, are you a carnival barker in real life? It seems you hover above ZH like some insecure parrot, pouncing on any and all new articles to reiterate ad nauseum your one-trick pony utterances.
Shit sake, man, we get it, you think all is just golly gosh great, Greece, Dubai, $14T debt, Spain, Italy, Ireland, UK, Eastern Europe, Japan, Chinese bubbles, near record unemployment, $20-30T ( US alone ) wealth destruction, ergo demand destruction, way too many malls, restaurants, hotels, McMansions, Starpukes, massive buying pulled forward, yada yada yada is just hot air, a trifle, not a wall of worry, hell, barely a single board.
Yeah, yeah, we know, you made your call, your balls and money are on the line. We don't need to see it every article, every hour, every day.
You need less cowbell, more brains. I pounce because of hopelessly cynical morons like you who think they're smarter than the market. You're not. You're going to lose your shirt shorting this market.
I have never shorted a single stock in my life,I wouldn't even know how. And I really don't give a damn about the markets, as far as I'm concerned its a rigged casino. Your assumptions reveal your narrow prisms of thought.
It's just that your boring, Leo.
Excuse my ignorance here you seem to be on a first name n
basis who is Leo K?
Leo is Zero Hedge's version of Jim Cramer, just more bullish.
I can't even listen to that guy Cramer
too much histronics.
LK used to double at the blog "Naked Cap", another of those agenda-filled blogs, except it never made its agenda clear, and LK never asked, assuming they were on the same agenda.
Zero Hedge came along a year ago, attracted the attacks from Naked Cap and other popular blogs, and LK jumped ship. Since then, he has been the resident "contrarian", a bit of the Faber, always talking his book. But that's ok, we need more different views.
Thanks LEO
I love the happy lies. It allows me to smile for a moment , before i remember reality.
Unemployed contractor who lives with reality of untruth.
Ahw the modern age , get paper, add water wait one minute , push button, LOOK MA how smart I am. LOL
Put up the cash. Wait until June.
I am betting with cowbell.
put up the cash where? while leo is clearly suffering from too much of his own cowbell, at least he is specific. when i hear folks say "put up the cash..." with no specificity, i think one of those stupid index etfs. and yeah, you are right, the indices will likely go little-to-nowhere. but leo's solar stocks will likely rock. or they won't. the point is he is specific. you, sir, are milque toast with side of mild spice.
This logic is not sound. It would appear that you think your smarter than the market as well...which is the rational behind the pounce? The markets are a 50/50 game...long and short -- both are equal
He is Leo,
He "pounces on the market", he puts his "balls on the table", he put his "money where his mouth is" and he fits the "Wall Street Label".
Scalper- Investment horizon 30 seconds: results gets whipped around alot. No wonder he comes across a little
maniac on paper. Gothcha thanks
LOL, the only scalping I do is with Head & Shoulders! I learned a lot from prop desk traders, and know their strengths and constraints. Cheers.
Well there you go. You must be long Proctor and Gamble
as you understand their products work. I would imagine
you do suffer from dry scalp another technique to combat
stress yoga. Please don't start drinking yet I have my
fingers crossed you'll take the bait. Lastly do your
friends still pick you up when you call? If so do you
know why?
Or money on the table, balls in the mouth...either way...
Leo, the less-on. You know, when dealing with someone so obviously with little to say, it is far better not to respond. It only reinforces them for they can interpret any criticism as personal, not objective, and they interpret it that they are being taken seriously.
You are going to lose yours buying every dip when the game of musical chairs is over.
Last one outs a rotten egg traders always think they will be first out but they never are because they keep buying the dip
AndyC
Unemployment figures now out for last week---> increased to 482K.
Too funny!
There is too much noise in the market you notice I see.
You get it and your humor is a riot.
Me again you guys are talking about the US stock
market. Parse away but the broader market is
on life support there are individual decent stories
but overall it will be pretty lifeless for now. Some
earnings will be good in certain sectors and good
stories within those sectors. Others will need more time.
As everyone knows 2010 is going to be harder to make
money anywhere you look and any country you pick.
you again?
sorry, I thought you were someone else.
While I am also skeptical of Leo's projections, he has a lot more experience and expertise than I or most other commenters have. Besides, what use would ZH be if it was solely a forum for people to debate the exact timing of hyperinflation and constantly write "GOLD BITCHES!" in every comment? Sounds more like something out of Idiocracy. I welcome Leo's comments (and those of any other intelligent contra-contrarian) so I can analyze various sides of each debate.
What market is this Leo K an expert in? Do you know?
If you bothered to do any research, it would be easy to find.
http://pensionpulse.blogspot.com/
(btw, pension investments.)
Pension fund managers (as a group) have
very poor long term return records due to
overallocation to risky asset classes
and myopic views of the macro environment.
In short, they are usually still at the
party when the music has stopped, the
chairs are long gone, and bear squads are
dispatching the remaining guests with
two by fours to the head.
Challenge experienced people can be misguided too.
My guess plenty of people that equal or exceed his
experience blog here from time to time. Few have his
desire to be heard I must say.
Lets not argue and bicker over this. Just wait until June.
..and what happens in june, genius? new moon? meteor? you get laid?
Once the so-called safe heavens are given the "light of day" one ends up running for the hills in search of guns and amo. Unless we are to believe that this 1 senator in Mass will steer the US towards a liquidationist mode (from current Zimbabwism); let's get real: they won't even allow a 2% correction today... Wake up folks. You allowed to be intra-day deflationists as long as you revert back by the close of business.
Once the so-called safe heavens are given the "light of day," one ends up running for the hills in search of guns and ammo. Unless we are to believe that this 1 senator in Mass will steer the US towards a liquidationist mode (from current Zimbabweism); let's get real: they won't even allow a 2% correction today... You're allowed to be an intra-day deflationist as long as you revert back by the close of business.
That is right.
Once the brutality of deflation starts to show up as rampant cannibalism in broad daylight in midtown Manhattan, the logic of hyperinflation will prove irresistible.
Starbucks rocketing after hours
that girl with the meds looks a lot like maria bartiromo. hmm
People need their fix. They can't take all of this "negative" (realist) sentiment. Plumber Joe and secretariat Sally quench their pleasure cheaply now. No more trips to Vegas for awhile. WFMI is definately benifitting from the good ol 'Merican staples of sin. Coffee and alchohol for the next month to hold gains in stocks, if you must. Otherwise buy gold/silver on the dip and sit on it.
FFIV rocketing up over $2 after hours
i see 69 cents, just wait for the med cart robo
So many times I've "heard" the tone of the Leo's of the world.....they've got it nailed, somehow, and anyone who isn't on board is a dope.
Maybe Leo is right. I know the market can elevate, at times, regardless of the compilation of "facts" that appear unrelentingly negative.
But I don't trust this market. Ain't shorting it much either but the sound of Leo's type of certainty makes me even less likely to go long.
the sound of Leo's type of certainty
any person who is certain or sure of the direction of the markets has proven that their historical understanding of the facts is woefully lacking.
i saw Leo's comment about shorting the market, will lose your shirt or words to that effect and based on his previous and numerous comments that seem to be absolutely 100% bullish i.e. the stock market is going up, buy all the dips, I am concluding that Leo is one of those who fits the description of a person who is certain and sure.
That said, I have not read all of Leo's articles and am therefore basing this comment on those that I have read.
Like you, jag, I read all sides as I find it helpful and interesting.
Robot, good on ya mate.
Since we are discussing improving ways of saying "Gold homies" and discounting emergency unemployment (Liesman, I know what you're doing. Fuck off.), hows abouts I say...
Jump to bonds and Doe if you wish, how about some sunny stuff and silver. Also, I would only buy banks as an inflation hedge. Lord knows what will happen in that scenario!
Are we adults or kids? Nobody is forcing you to believe me. I laid it all out in detail on my Outlook 2010, posted January 2nd, 2010. If you read it carefully, you will see why I am optimistic on jobs in Q1 2010. As far as the stock market, the liquidity rally still has legs. Nothing has changed except that the fundamentals are improving in the US, albeit from depressed levels.
Does this mean I am always right? Hell no! But when I am wrong, I don't hide, I fess up, suck it up and try to understand where I went wrong. Nobody has a monopoly on wisdom in finance. Not Buffett, not Soros, not Griffin, not Cohen, not Simons, not Paulson, not Tudor Jones, not Bacon, not Dalio, not Tepper, not...well you get the picture. If I could predict the future with certainty, I'd be stinking rich!
My aim is to add some context to the bigger debates. My experience is unique because I worked across asset classes at large pension funds, allocating to hedge funds and private equity funds, and as a sell-side economist. I constantly read different viewpoints and I'm not a perma-bull or perma-bear. The world is a lot more complex than that.
+1
Stand in there. We will only think you are crazy until you are right, or wrong.
Still, the only fundamental change is YOY numbers, and that is like comparing a starved dog to a dead one.
"My aim is to add some context to the bigger debates."
Repeating the same mantra, ad nauseum, is not adding any context, it's just wanting to hear yourself talk, err, type.
"If I could predict the future with certainty..."
You are predicting the future with absolute certainty; do you even read what you type? And not just with certainty, but relentlessly, hourly, daily. But thats OK; the problem is you're boring, and no sense of humor.
Dude-throw in the towel and buy some stocks. There has been absolutely no reason for this rally to continue...and therefore no reason for it to end for now. Selling my winners in July on fear cost me a boatload of moolah. Yeah, I made a shitload from March until then, but I've been listening to people like Leo since November.
Take a step back and appreciate the simplicity.
Ok, ok... we get it. Leo is "boring". He just happens to have been right as well, but dont let that get in the way of your hatin'. Move along already...
Leo,
What do you make of the high percentage of insiders selling?
The financial world has a record of adrenaline rushes, but it still seems it's just another credit bubble.
I used to track insider selling, but it's not as good of an indicator as insider buying. Insiders sell for all sorts of reasons, including stock options, paying their mortgages, kids' tuition, divorce, alimony, whatever. The other thing you should know is that most insiders are terrible market timers. If you look at their track record, few get in or out at the right time.
Lets start with your last paragraph. We all know the
world is complex. You seemed to have many roles in life
were you a decision maker in each of the roles? We all
read different viewpoints it's a real mosaic out there.
The trick is to find the right voice. Paragraph one
why are you optimistic about jobs in 2010 and don't
tell me to read your outlook give it to me in ten words or less. It's too complicated is not an acceptable answer among us adults.
Track these indicators:
1) ISM New Orders soaring above 60 for last two months
2) Corporate profits are up big in third quarter of 2009
3) Conference Board's US Leading Economic index has been on an uptrend for more than half a year and it is now slightly higher than its latest peak in July 2007.
4) Weak US dollar boosted exports
5) Business investment is picking up
Bottom line: US economy is recovering and firms are hiring again. Watch job growth in Q1 2010.
With all the noise, I forgot what article this is.
How about GOV? It's getting ready to float 8.5 million more shares.
Where is Project Mayem? What happened to him?
And Cheeky Bastard too?
Cheeky made the mistake of posting as a guest reporter or whatever Tyler calls it. Poor guy was crushed under a 1ton feather bag. I miss him.
And where did the math question go?
"Where is Project Mayem? What happened to him?"
He's probably hunkered down in a bunker somewhere, taking turns watching for the black helicopters, with all the other conspiracy wingnuts.
so when the praetorian guard would murder the emporer and sell the empire to the highest bidder, that wasn't a conspiracy? Or when hiltler invaded poland because they attacked Germany first, that must have been the truth also. Nothing wrong with not questioning things, but you don't have to call people wingnuts and so forth. Lately it seems tempers have been running high on zero hedge, been reading about this crisis for over two years now. Nothing has changed, except from a small buisness perspective they are worse. Government, Big Companies, Stock market, none of them have changed, just everyone else's lives, and they bigger they are, the longer it takes for all of our individual changes to reverberate up into them. Lets all just cool our jets and understand that we are in purgatory right now. And yes i do Miss GW and Project Mayhem
I understand where you're coming from, and not picking a fight here but, if we follow your position to its logical conclusion then i suppose it wouldn't be a stretch for you to tell me you agree with the 9/11 conspiracy crowd too? I'm sure PM and GW do.
Go re-read some of PMs posts from November about 'deliberately' released killer-flu in Ukraine, and the 'criminal' coverup of the mass casualties by the WHO and MSM, and if you believe that, you can tell me the guy isn't a conspiracy wingnut.
As for GW, his stories of GIs handcuffing and shooting children in Afghanistan or Iraq are just as off-the-wall as anything PM posted on Ukraine.
For a supposed financial site, there are more than a few wingnuts with their own agendas posting here, they detract from the otherwise high credibility ZH is noted for, and i call the bovine excrement in their posts by its proper name: Bullshit.
Hearing horror stories of foreign workers abandoning homes & cars and getting the hell out of Dubai.. another sad ending..
True there. Their first mistake was hiring Jackson
and then believing him. He's a loose cannon on deck. Now that he's on the beach at least he doesn't have to go far to get some rays. I forgot he exploited the OPM game
he now can go to a beach of his choice to unwind.
Speaking of horror stories did you here what our psychopath of the moment Chavez had to say today? He's claiming the
US caused the earthquakes in Haiti due to nuclear
testing. I tell you what people are getting sick of his
noise he'll be gone this time next year Thank God in the meantime you can't make this shit up that's why I love
EM so much.
Robo...
This is a Depression.
We need more meat for sustenance.
Thank you.
psst...Andy, I see your back, have missed your insights. Throw an old dog a bone will ya?
@deadhead
Agreed. It's a depression. Of course, you can't tell that to bulltards and those who believe that Man can define reality. If the wolves are howling at night and you are stuck in the woods alone, you can cover your ears and close your eyes, but that doesn't stop the wolves from ripping your insides apart.
Agreed.
I gotta admit, it is interesting to be living through this. It's somewhat similar to the beginning of the Great Depression....i've read several newspaper accounts from those days (someone has a website on it and i don't have the link) when they had a counter trend rally after the 1929 crash and I could swear that the quotes from the politicians, bankers, and business leaders of the day as that rally was occuring sound exactly, verbatim like what we read and hear today. then, the real long grind down happened.
will be interesting to see how it plays out. i know where my bet is
Yes those news articles and citizen sentiment is very similar to todays.
Sometimes anonymous is a real cool handle(apologies to Lucas war hero). When posters start addressing each other by name the quality of the content usually takes a dive.
in regards to me I was just trying to get the context
because this Leo fellow seemed a little bent. I do
plenty of research but not of bloggers unless I know
and met the person. Too much content out there waste
of time knowing every single guy who likes to blast
the internet with his pithy sayings. In terms of handle
anonymous is good but not because it's cool. It just is.
RT, Leo, thank you. Apparently, if one trades short term, the most important thing these days is to know when the Fedsury has a big bond sale coming, and just switch to TLT then and back to IWM afterward. As Dave Barry might say, you can't make this stuff up. He who laughs, wins.
the teenie tiny bank that could?
TONE
MTB is so ridiculous. Not ONLY does Allied-Irish (AIB) own 20-25% of this equity and will almost certainly be forced to liquidate it, but this stupid bank is under-reserving (hence the "beat" today) is under-capitalized on a TCE basis, and is almost 3 x Tangible Book Value, and at 52-week highs.
I am short this around 73
Greece is the word.
Funny thing.
I woke today and now it's 1929 going on 1930
-MobBarley
Leo will appear to be the smartest guy in the room until we smack down 500 dows one night and another 500 the next week. Then buys the dip. And then we ratchet down another 3000-4000 Dows the next 4-6 months.
Thanks Cassandra, duly noted.
(BTW, I can get into cash in an instant if I feel it's necessary).