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T-Minus Two Months Until The $500 Billion Rolling Debt Ticking Timebomb Goes Off

Tyler Durden's picture


Ever since the famous Stanley Druckenmiller Op Ed published in early May, which called for an outright default of the US, saying it would not be
the end of the world, and in fact the US would emerge stronger as a
result of finally taking the first steps to getting its fiscal house in
order, there has been a visible shift regarding the US debt ceiling discussion, with republicans (so far) digging in and refusing to budge on the issue. After all, on the surface Druckenmiller is absolutely correct: with interest rates near record lows for the past 3 years, interest payments would be manageable for a long time even if general rates were to surge due to the Treasury's fixing of low cash coupons over the past 3-4 years, amounting to about 20-30% of all annual tax receipts. There is however one very big problem with this argument, one which we pointed out back in April 2010 when we said that "What people don't realize is that...unless the UST can roll its debt not on a monthly
but now weekly basis in greater and greater amounts, the interest rate
doesn't matter.
All it takes is one semi-failed auction and it's game over as hundreds of billions in bills become payable." Enter the always forgotten maturing debt argument. And as a just released presentation by the Bipartisan Policy Center titled "Debt Limit Analysis" reminds us, aside from the actual deficit funding math, which is that in August there is a $134.3 billion cash shortfall that has to be funded with debt, there is a far greater risk. Or, put numerically, 467.4 billion far greater risks. This is the amount of debt that matures through August 31, and has to be rolled over or the US is bankrupt... in every sense of the word. Once again, America's politicians and media get broadsided by the definition of gross versus net. Because, in reality, the inability to issue more debt post August 3 means a halt to all new debt issuance. Which, unfortunately because it means Geithner's scaremongering is actually correct, would imply the end for the debt ponzi.

Below is the maturity schedule in August from the BPC:

And their commentary, which recaps what we said 14 months ago:

  • Treasury must “roll over” almost $500 b in debt that matures during August 2011
    • New debt is issued and the proceeds are used to repay the maturing debt plus interest due
    • Treasury will require market access throughout August to avoid defaulting on maturing debt
  • About $380 b in short-term T-Bills maturing, plus $90 b in long-term securities
    • Quarterly refunding auction on August 15

And that's not it. On a Net basis, there is in addition another $134.3 billion in deficit that must be satisfied somehow. Alas, after August 3rd it will become impossible to plunder savings accounts going forward which means a game over in the kick the can down the road game:

Breaking down the spending side:

The BPC's observations on what happens on August 4 absent a deal are rather spot on:

  • If the debt ceiling is not raised by August 2, all three ratings agencies will put the United States on watch for a downgrade, at a minimum. Fitch (6/8/11):
    • “If the debt ceiling is not raised by the [X Date] and timely and full payment of its obligations, including Treasuries, is not secure, the U.S. sovereign rating will be placed on Rating Watch Negative.”
  • An actual downgrade would cause major losses among holders
  • Even without downgrade, it is likely that rates would increase, perhaps significantly
    • Less likely, but possible, that Treasury would lose market access during such an unprecedented event and default

As a reminder we are now 32 days away from D-Day, and about 60 days from the need to fund half a trillion, all of it with new gross debt issuance.

To date, there has been no progress in D.C. at all. Will there be progress in the next 4 weeks? They better, or as demonstrated, the extend and pretend game, contrary to the well-meaning intentions of the likes of Drucknemiller, is about to come to a very violent end.

Full presentation link.

Debt Ceiling Analysis


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Fri, 07/01/2011 - 14:09 | 1419608 bernorange
bernorange's picture

Probably why Timmy wants to quit around that time.

Fri, 07/01/2011 - 14:17 | 1419626 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Raise the debt ceiling or bust!

Fri, 07/01/2011 - 14:32 | 1419677 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Bust the debt ceiling, or bust!

Fri, 07/01/2011 - 14:50 | 1419722 falak pema
falak pema's picture

oh, dolly! Good bye to all that!

Fri, 07/01/2011 - 15:16 | 1419830 JW n FL
JW n FL's picture

The Republican's! who I hate! are going to bring about Change we all can believe in! I hope Ya'll got your Guns! Ammo!! and Food!!! ready.. with fall back positions! The democrats and the republicans are going to destroy this Country so that it can be made over in a more Bank Friendly Format! LULZ!! Internet Switch is a comin boyz!

Fri, 07/01/2011 - 15:45 | 1419930 Pool Shark
Pool Shark's picture


Both parties have already destroyed the country.

All that's happening now is that the facade is being stripped away to reveal the horrible truth: we're bankrupt.


Fri, 07/01/2011 - 18:56 | 1420376 Michael
Michael's picture

Rolling over old national debt is like issuing new debt. It has all the trappings of issuing new debt except it doesn't increase the size of the national debt.

I thank God everyday for the complete and total economic collapse of the USA.
When we finally default, the rest of the world will cut us off from trade with them and we will get our manufacturing jobs back because we need replacement parts for our shit.
Default is a win win for the .

Fri, 07/01/2011 - 21:51 | 1420654 BigDuke6
BigDuke6's picture

I'm with you.

And if default really would do that to the usa then i think we can all safely say that an agreement will be reached where the politicos can save it up for another day with the can kicked down the road yet again.

It doen't feel right yet... these people are the lowest of the low, they'll keep kicking until the wheels are totally off for all to see.

Sat, 07/02/2011 - 00:39 | 1420812 Quixotic_Not
Quixotic_Not's picture

Since The Trend is firmly in place, the only question is whether the U$D will hold any value after default until Jan. 2012 and what currency will replace it?

¿Tienes plata gringo?

Sat, 07/02/2011 - 01:00 | 1420826 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

Quix, I heard you Quixit in des-gust a few weeks ago. Didn't you? But this place is like crack eh? Keep coming back fro more.

And perhaps your question should be will the USD trade for anything of value. it hold's no value in and of itself.

My sign reading, batting a decent average as I type, says we will see major dislocations between tnow and July 15th, with July 16th as a key date.

In the light of what is to unfold, whether in the Nuclear Mid-west or freak heat for snow-melt, reality will trump all this nonsense soon. We need look no further than Fukushima and the rolling disaster signs in the US.

Our new normal, nothing like the old normal.


Sat, 07/02/2011 - 01:39 | 1420834 Quixotic_Not
Quixotic_Not's picture

Sorry, don't give two-bits about the opinion of some H1B wannabe...The rumours of my departure have been greatly exaggerated ;-)

Only concerned with hard asset value internally within the former USofA, not looking to purchase foreign trinkets or pathetic attempts at labour.

Since I moved my U$D holdings out of T-Direct, I'm sincerely hoping the dollar maintains par against 'MeriKan Ponzi housing schemes, but I'm starting to worry that the huddled masses will miss the opportunity to sell their inflated assets before 2012 Obamageddon...

Too bad none of former US patriots have a crystal ball!

P.S. Just curious, did you have your Indian piece of ass come to the US on a tourist visa - Like millions of other H1B temp visa slaves - and did you make her pop out a bambino so you and your lil' tribe could claim 'MeriKan "citizenship"?

If not, get with the scam!

New Yawk City is awash in anchor babies...

Sat, 07/02/2011 - 03:56 | 1420927 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

Hmmm...I wonder if they will or won't raise the debt ceiling?

I'm really analyzing this. It's a profound issue with profound consequences and implication.

Will they or won't they?


/SARC/xQExTARPxTALFxMaiden LanexHilarity+∞²

Sat, 07/02/2011 - 12:22 | 1421221 TaxSlave
TaxSlave's picture

It's not what the debt BUYS that matters.

It's what the debt SELLS.


Sat, 07/02/2011 - 08:13 | 1421083 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

Ahhhhhhhaaaaaaah! A liar AND an asshole.
Good luck mate!
I'm in India BTW.
You are welcome to your dystopia and your hate.

Sat, 07/02/2011 - 12:22 | 1421226 cosmictrainwreck
cosmictrainwreck's picture

the dude's in love with himself, that's all. which makes him a prick. aside from that, he does (on rare occasion) make pertinent comments

Sat, 07/02/2011 - 15:29 | 1421436 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

*nods* clearly. And he does.


Sat, 07/02/2011 - 02:50 | 1420871 Michael
Michael's picture

I love Dr Ron Paul.

He says;

"The US defaulted on its national debt many times before. It wasn't the end of the world the last few times. We muddled through it. We can do it again." 

Sat, 07/02/2011 - 03:27 | 1420875 Michael
Michael's picture

So what if you wanted a monetary system that was different than the one we have now?

After the default we could try one that Ron Paul could describe. Imagine that, a President who could actually describe to the American people from his own mouth not reading a teleprompter, what a new monetary system we should use and be like, in great detail. What other man on the planet Earth could copy what Paul could actually do? 

No other person running for President in the country could do that.

Sat, 07/02/2011 - 03:43 | 1420895 Michael
Michael's picture

Dr Paul, he had a good life. He just wishes it could be there for his grand kids.

He knows his grand kids have another 75 years to go.

Sat, 07/02/2011 - 05:10 | 1421021 Michael
Michael's picture

I just got an idea for a new Youtube upload.

Tell me what you think?

Things That Should Not Be Said In Public! Dr. Who?

Sat, 07/02/2011 - 08:05 | 1421077 Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture

Benny has an Ap for that: 'Print'

Sat, 07/02/2011 - 15:51 | 1421476 1inchRacker
1inchRacker's picture

to: JW n FL

"Obama LOVES us!!


Obama $656 Million LOBBY Dollars! Obama Let the FED Print 1/2 a Trillion since Jan 1 2011  "

I guess it's all Obama's fault, right? I mean, he didn't inherit a crappy situation or anything, did he ?

Fri, 07/01/2011 - 22:21 | 1420687 FlyPaper
FlyPaper's picture

Pool Shark +1 - both parties spent money we didn't have.   [Clinton's "balanced" budget was not balanced if they had not taken the excess from Social Security].

Fri, 07/01/2011 - 16:07 | 1420022 Gully Foyle
Gully Foyle's picture


Off the meds again

Fri, 07/01/2011 - 16:10 | 1420055 JW n FL
JW n FL's picture

what do you think is going to happen with the full faith of the American Dollar is called into serious question?


Unicorns shitting rainbow skittle turds everywhere?

Fri, 07/01/2011 - 16:23 | 1420091 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Don't you want to go where the rainbow ends?

Fri, 07/01/2011 - 16:30 | 1420106 Rodent Freikorps
Rodent Freikorps's picture


Too many leprechauns wanting to bum an American cigarette.

Fri, 07/01/2011 - 19:45 | 1420482 Dugald
Dugald's picture

Not forgetting....Got any Gum Chum!!!

Sat, 07/02/2011 - 08:28 | 1421086 Medea
Medea's picture

Pynchon sighting!

Sat, 07/02/2011 - 01:35 | 1420840 Printfaster
Printfaster's picture

The last Irishman that worked for me loved saying at the end of a meeting:  "I need to murder a fag".

Not very PC.  But very Irish.

Fri, 07/01/2011 - 19:00 | 1420406 topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

what I think will happen is a chance to rebuild a limited government with true individual liberty and personal responsibility for all.

Of course the next ten years or so might not be too pleasant, but you can't make an omelete without smashing a few eggs and blending them up, adding a little cream and bacon.  I always think a little bell and jalepeno pepper works great too.

Fri, 07/01/2011 - 21:24 | 1420627 JW n FL
JW n FL's picture

I was brought up to put Tabasco in.. with or without peppers.. give it a try.. Louisiana as well I have developed a taste for over the last 5 years of so?


I LOVE Breakfast!

Fri, 07/01/2011 - 19:24 | 1420451 oldman
oldman's picture

'full faith and credit" of the US Treasury, or Government, or how did that go on those old bond indentures?

I haven't seen one in a couple of decades----all digital now, no?

Does anyone know anything about what I can't remember?


Sat, 07/02/2011 - 02:15 | 1420860 dolly madison
dolly madison's picture

My prediction of what will happen unfortunately is they will raise the debt ceiling, and in the process of doing that the Reps will win at pushing for austerity.  The game is the Reps ask for austerity, the Dems fight, but lose.  They want us as cheap labor.  They want to make us all poor, so we will be desperate and cheap.

Sat, 07/02/2011 - 02:28 | 1420864 Quixotic_Not
Quixotic_Not's picture

You would be wrong!

'MeriKans, by continuing to vote for the (D) & (R) Duopoly, have volunteered themselves and their progeny to the new Fuedalism.

Sorry, but there's no one here to blame but We The Sheeple themselves...

The road to hell is paved with selfish fantasies.

Please, do try to keep up, and pull your head out of your arse before you suffocate!

Sat, 07/02/2011 - 11:52 | 1421195 legal eagle
legal eagle's picture

I see an increase in the aggregate supply of prostitutes.

Fri, 07/01/2011 - 14:33 | 1419694 Freebird
Freebird's picture

Not before time for an asset firesale & not talking Ukranian
hooker bitches in the Hamptons. Greek style. US Sell your gold
( Hahmmm ), sell Manhattan, sell everything possible until
there is a few trillion available to pay down the steaming

Fri, 07/01/2011 - 14:55 | 1419736 Dreadker
Dreadker's picture

Maybe the opening trailer for Modern Warfare 3 was actually a prophecy... Chinese submarines in New York harbor coming to collect whats owed to them lol

Sat, 07/02/2011 - 06:55 | 1421049 max2205
max2205's picture

When will TLT trade on the pink sheets?

Fri, 07/01/2011 - 17:19 | 1420239 malikai
malikai's picture

This premise, like that super bowl commercial is rediculous. If the US defaults on the debt, EVERYONE will drop treasuries, including the Chinese. What happens afterwards is anybody's guess, but it won't end with hoards of angry Chinese demanding payment due. But it might end with hoards of BMW drivers walking for a change.

Fri, 07/01/2011 - 22:53 | 1420731 CompassionateFascist
CompassionateFascist's picture

None of this apocalyptic stuff is going to happen...yet. First, both parties are posturing, playing to their constituencies, special interests, group entitlements. There'll be a deal, mid- to late-July, involving Xtrillions in "spending cuts" (over the next 10 years....), none of which will ever actually occur, and some token, nuisance increases in taxes and fees. That's all; oh, almost forget, Boner will have a good cry at the signing ceremony. Then back to the Universal Ponzi for maybe another 12 months. More important reason it's not going to that I am still insufficiently stockpiled and weaponized.  

Sat, 07/02/2011 - 05:51 | 1421035 turds in the pu...
turds in the punchbowl's picture

walking sucks balls

Fri, 07/01/2011 - 15:03 | 1419766 Jonas Parker
Jonas Parker's picture

Somebody would BUY Manhattan??? Do they have to take Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan Chase, and Bof A too??? Can we throw in San Francisco and Nancy Pelosi???  Naw... nobody's that dumb!

Fri, 07/01/2011 - 18:16 | 1420335 FinalCollapse
FinalCollapse's picture

Buzz off from San Francisco. You can take Nancy though. 


Fri, 07/01/2011 - 15:17 | 1419833 zerozulu
zerozulu's picture

Total US assets are US$75.55 trillions dollars. Still long way to go.

Fri, 07/01/2011 - 15:21 | 1419853 lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

You think one night with Michelle Obama is worth that much?

Fri, 07/01/2011 - 17:31 | 1420275 GtownSLV
GtownSLV's picture

I could wash myself clean of that experience for $75T but not a penny less!

Fri, 07/01/2011 - 15:26 | 1419870 hannah
hannah's picture

mark-to-myth total us assets are us$75tril.....while actual value is what you can get for who has $75tril in credit to buy our assets...oh wait...we sell the assets to ourselves...? right.....the 'we are the richest nation on earth' crap is wearing a little thin.....

Fri, 07/01/2011 - 15:52 | 1419965 JW n FL
JW n FL's picture

America Produces VERY LITTLE!


That means our income, as a Country! SUCKS!!


We! as a Country!! Paid Corporations!!! to Destroy!! our Income / Manufacturing Base / Tax Base!!!!


Tax Breaks for Corporations to Undermine our National Stability!! Corporations were Paid to Strengthen OUR! ENEMIES!!


"We the People" pay for Corporations (Subsidies) to NOT GROW FOOD!!


America has Been GUTTED!! anyone who can NOT see that has not looked at the numbers or trends!


And!! Most of the Sheep still think it is the Republicans or the Democrats! They BOTH!! have entertained the Sheep all the while sending jobs to our enemies! all the while passing out money to the biggest Lobby(s)!

Top U.S. Lobbying Banks Got Biggest Bailouts


1.    [PDF]

A Fistful of Dollars:Lobbying and the Financial Crisis; Financial ...

File Format: PDF/Adobe Acrobat - View as HTML
A Fistful of Dollars: Lobbying and the Financial Crisisby. Deniz Igan ...


Corporations Own the Lobby!


The Lobby Owns the Government!


Law Enforcement works for the Duly Elected Lobby Whores!


“We the People” are Screwed!  Treasury Direct $14 Trillion Debt   $15 Trillion in Loans  ='s $29T 3 Years 300% More Dollars Printed Out of Thin Air!



I would say wake up.. but everyone has a dog in the fight or is to, too busy watching dancing with the starz or! my personal fav!! are retired and dont want to deal with it.. they just want to enjoy their golden years and let the next group deal with the mess they left us in!

Fri, 07/01/2011 - 16:14 | 1420070 AGuy
AGuy's picture

"America Produces VERY LITTLE!"


You're freak'n crazy. America Products lots!   Get a grip Man, and stop exaggerating everything! We produce more Fat people than any nation on the planet!

Fri, 07/01/2011 - 17:04 | 1420212 spartan117
spartan117's picture

+1 ton

Fri, 07/01/2011 - 17:58 | 1420314 duncecap rack
duncecap rack's picture

I might be wrong but I think the US is still the number 1 manufacturing country in the world.

Fri, 07/01/2011 - 18:54 | 1420381 JW n FL
JW n FL's picture

and how many 100's of % has the U.S. lost in the last Decade in Production / Sales / Tax Base?????????????


Now you can be cute and correct but you are detracting from the larger issue which is America is cutting its own throat.


50,000 jobs a month to the Chinks??? so that our numbers could be weak?????


What the fuck is your point? that we only have 120% Leverage Against every Dollar and China has 1,200% leverage? Yeah, I quote that shit all day every day but it dont fucking help us with 1% growth of GDP no does it???? their growth came at the cost of our Growth.. Our Growth was sold to China!!! for Lobby Dollars? What the FUCK?? and the perma-sunshine crowd wants to believe this shit will work out well? given the fact that your quip was positive I will assume that you just dont have the first clue when it comes to operating a fucking calculator or what a forward looking statement smells like.

Fri, 07/01/2011 - 19:06 | 1420412 WakeUpPeeeeeople
WakeUpPeeeeeople's picture

So, in a nutshell, you are saying that Washington DC, corporate america, and all of their lobbyists have sold this country out-lock, stock, and barrel. Until such time that we peons round these traitors up and frog-march them to the nearest guillotine we can just expect more of the same.

Fri, 07/01/2011 - 19:23 | 1420444 JW n FL
JW n FL's picture

Yes. or any other form of doling out the Prosecution of Thier Treason.

Fri, 07/01/2011 - 19:28 | 1420466 topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

You make it sound so tempting.

However after the celebration we would merely form the neorepublican party and the neodemocratic party because I am doubtful that socialists and libertarians could agree how to govern the country once we rid ourselves of the current traitors.

Fri, 07/01/2011 - 23:23 | 1420766 AssFire
AssFire's picture

If I could only use my namesake to carpet bomb this blog...the above three members would be my first targets. 

Sat, 07/02/2011 - 07:26 | 1421060 Number Yuan
Number Yuan's picture

Treason is specifically defined in the Constitution and is the only crime so defined. Article III Section 3 delineates treason as follows:


“Treason against the United States, shall consist only in levying War against them, or in adhering to their Enemies, giving them Aid and Comfort. No Person shall be convicted of Treason unless on the Testimony of two Witnesses to the same overt Act, or on Confession in open Court.


The Congress shall have Power to declare the Punishment of Treason, but no Attainder of Treason shall work Corruption of Blood, or Forfeiture except during the Life of the Person attainted.”


Not quite sure what that all means exactly, but obviously we need two witnesses first – Anybody ?

Sat, 07/02/2011 - 08:33 | 1421093 Medea
Medea's picture

Like all legal documents, it intends to be vague an confusing. That ensures that those with power can make it work to their wishes while those without feel the lash of its whip.

Sat, 07/02/2011 - 10:01 | 1421137 JW n FL
JW n FL's picture


Sat, 07/02/2011 - 16:15 | 1421505 Glasater55
Glasater55's picture

Didn't understand "attainder" didja...

Fri, 07/01/2011 - 22:57 | 1420742 CompassionateFascist
CompassionateFascist's picture

"Manufacturing" is about 8% of our economy, and that includes burger-flipping. All the rest is gub'mint "employment", financial "services" (debt, speculation on debt, export of debt), "education" (= dumbing out), "health care" (keeping veggies alive) , and zillions of low paying "service" jobs - transportation, retail sales, etc. Just pitiful.

Fri, 07/01/2011 - 23:15 | 1420758 Eally Ucked
Eally Ucked's picture

you're right but half of it going to pentagon, to be destroyed in very productive way.


Fri, 07/01/2011 - 22:09 | 1420668 Calmyourself
Calmyourself's picture

I just wan tto know logistics how i nthe heck do you do these huge posts so quick.


Fri, 07/01/2011 - 16:57 | 1420192 ATG
ATG's picture

Total US assets are US$75.55 trillions dollars. Still long way to go.

Total US derivatives dwarf that

Fri, 07/01/2011 - 19:25 | 1420452 traderjoe
traderjoe's picture

And define the assets. What's a bridge that has no toll, only on-going expenses, etc. worth? Sell it for...?

And let's not forget the liabilities...

Sat, 07/02/2011 - 10:55 | 1421171 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

The US currently is rich in Man-ure, overfed human capital and a ton of natural resources.

And a shining MIC if someone can get it.


Fri, 07/01/2011 - 19:06 | 1420411 topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

We aint paying it down.

One generation cannot bind another to its debts.  That is slavery.

Default and kill the central government now.

Fri, 07/01/2011 - 21:37 | 1420643 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

Apparently, you don't know how "Social Security" works...


Sat, 07/02/2011 - 06:30 | 1421042 Incubus
Incubus's picture

Oh, we're gonna pay it--regardless of our willingness in the matter. 


Kind of ironic that what comprises this country was basically taken from them injuns, and now "we" are going to lose it.  You think the international 'invaders' that'll take away this country will name soccer teams after americans?  The "fatasses" or maybe "trailer trash"??? sounds like a good name for a soccer team.  Yuppies, maybe?  Or Flag Suckers might be a good name, too. 

Sat, 07/02/2011 - 07:17 | 1421058 Rodent Freikorps
Rodent Freikorps's picture

The North Eastern states seem quite happy to sell out the Southern to the Mexican invaders to help fund their own local welfare states.


Sat, 07/02/2011 - 10:02 | 1421141 JW n FL
JW n FL's picture

if you think about it... giving away "Aztlan" is not such a bad idea.. it is all dirt and dust.. fuck it, let the wet backs have it.


in five (5) years the whites and the blacks.. COMBINED will be a minority in America!! how you like a service economy with cheap labor from across the border? Yeah! Baby!!

Sat, 07/02/2011 - 10:59 | 1421172 equity_momo
equity_momo's picture

The New York Fiat-Lickers

Fri, 07/01/2011 - 20:10 | 1420525 masterinchancery
masterinchancery's picture

Excellent! Bust is no problem for the taxpayers, only for the vote buying criminals in Washington.

Fri, 07/01/2011 - 16:58 | 1420188 ATG
ATG's picture

Probably why Timmy wants to quit around that time.

+467 B

A conversation with an IRS rep yesterday revealed IRS is at least a year late paying some refunds

Fri, 07/01/2011 - 21:14 | 1420620 Cole Younger
Cole Younger's picture

Debt ceiling? we dont need no stinking debt ceiling: NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- Amid fears the United States risks default if lawmakers don't raise the debt ceiling on time, some are suggesting President Obama could save the day by big-footing Congress. How? By invoking the Constitution and directing Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner to keep borrowing even if it means going past the statutory borrowing limit. Really? They say default -- and by extension, the debt limit -- violates the 14th Amendment



Sat, 07/02/2011 - 09:50 | 1421133 boooyaaaah
boooyaaaah's picture

Like In The Terminator Movies

The Machines discover they don't need humans.

The constitution requires the Government to get money from taxes, taxpayers, citizens.

The politicicans find this very humbling

And Banksters find it very unsophisticated

They devize a National bank to free themselves from begging for taxes from the citizens.

Now today with over 40% of Government Spending comming not from Taxes but from borrowing ---- they are and have been on easy street.

But now there is the ritual of increasing the debt ceiling. Which the Pols and Banksters bring to high theatrics. 70 TIMES SINCE 1960

Is this the time that the Pols and Banks, tell the all to eager president that they no longer need Citizen approval for spending money?

That funds raised from taxes are no longer needed.

That financial instruments are all that is really needed. That they can finally escape from human citizen control. For the betterment of mankind, of course.

And we the people finally realize that holding the government to spending tax receipts only was our only control.

And We the people realize that we could (can you believe the naivete) only control the government by controlling its purse strings.

And now those strings have been cut






Fri, 07/01/2011 - 14:12 | 1419616 Panafrican Funk...
Panafrican Funktron Robot's picture

Game of chicken, blinking will eventually occur here.  I think the details have already been worked out, the rest is just theatre.  The relevant players have already been purchased on both sides, and there is no way in hell a default happens.  

Fri, 07/01/2011 - 16:35 | 1420105 hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture

Which, unfortunately because it means Geithner's scaremongering is actually correct, would imply the end for the debt ponzi.

I fixed it. 

Fri, 07/01/2011 - 18:07 | 1420324 macholatte
macholatte's picture

Game of chicken, blinking will eventually occur here.  I think the details have already been worked out, the rest is just theatre.  The relevant players have already been purchased on both sides, and there is no way in hell a default happens.


They will do what they have always done. Those droids never change their stripes. Then, suddenly, they realize how bad they screwed up and panic, like Paulson Sept. 2008 nightmare, raid the cookie jar sneak attack.

August will come and go. The European "crises" will have passed and it will be time to by those new fall fashionsand another season of Grey's Anatomy.

Kick the can, baby. Kick it hard.


While there is a chance of the world getting through its troubles, I hold that a reasonable man has to behave as though he were sure of it. If at the end your cheerfulness in not justified, at any rate you will have been cheerful.
H. G. Wells

Fri, 07/01/2011 - 14:12 | 1419619 Xibalba
Xibalba's picture

Pitchforks soon to be in short supply

Fri, 07/01/2011 - 14:31 | 1419686 Triggernometry
Triggernometry's picture

Don't forget axes, picks, trowels, and most importantly- hoes.

Never forget the hoes.

Fri, 07/01/2011 - 15:50 | 1419960 Rodent Freikorps
Rodent Freikorps's picture

I got a horse drawn plow from an antique dealer. Real steel blade. You know...just in case.

Fri, 07/01/2011 - 16:00 | 1419996 JW n FL
JW n FL's picture

Bro, what are you going to plow in the Bahamas? I thought you were going spear fishing with us?

Fri, 07/01/2011 - 16:19 | 1420085 Rodent Freikorps
Rodent Freikorps's picture

I can always trade it for a percentage of the crop. Can you imagine fish without chips?


Fri, 07/01/2011 - 17:14 | 1420222 JW n FL
JW n FL's picture

they want rum? we want whatever and get it!


not to mention the life of a pirate is filed with potatoes!

Fri, 07/01/2011 - 17:33 | 1420265 Rodent Freikorps
Rodent Freikorps's picture

Yo Ho Ho and a Bottle of RUM! The Pirate Song


Fri, 07/01/2011 - 19:09 | 1420420 topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

yeah, but eye patches are so last century.

I think the new pirates ought to establish a new trend.  Feather boas.

Fri, 07/01/2011 - 19:24 | 1420447 JW n FL
JW n FL's picture

I am going to wear flip flops.. but I could rock the feather boa if needed!

Fri, 07/01/2011 - 19:30 | 1420463 BaboonAss
BaboonAss's picture

Better yet, Tim Curry's A Professional Pirate, which even gets digs in against the government and lawyers.

Fri, 07/01/2011 - 19:59 | 1420509 Rodent Freikorps
Rodent Freikorps's picture

Best pirate movie ever was Yellowbeard.


Fri, 07/01/2011 - 23:39 | 1420782 Burnbright
Burnbright's picture

Thank God my father and I are not the only people who have watched that movie. I ask everyone at some point if they ever saw it and all I get is blank stares.

Mon, 07/04/2011 - 07:47 | 1423795 earnulf
earnulf's picture

"with your head on my shoulders we could wreck civilization!" - - Yellowbeard

Fri, 07/01/2011 - 19:52 | 1420500 Dugald
Dugald's picture

The mind boggles at such an idea!!!!!!!

Fri, 07/01/2011 - 14:30 | 1419630 Mercury
Mercury's picture

Are more eyes opening to the perils of fiat least within the establishment non-MSM? A survey of the Founders' perspectives in honor of the 4th:

BTW - The Cocktails Before The Close Club is now accepting new members...

Fri, 07/01/2011 - 15:06 | 1419788 baby_BLYTHE
baby_BLYTHE's picture

believe it or not, Benjamin Franklin was a huge fan of paper money.

Throughout his career, Franklin was an advocate for paper money, publishing A Modest Enquiry into the Nature and Necessity of a Paper Currency in 1729, and his printer printed money. He was influential in the more restrained and thus successful monetary experiments in the Middle Colonies, which stopped deflation without causing excessive inflation. In 1766 he made a case for paper money to the British House of Commons.

even though he held that position, to which I strongly disagree (Jefferson+Jackson had it correct). He is still probably my favorite Founder due to his vast genius on multiples of topics

Fri, 07/01/2011 - 15:13 | 1419819 Mercury
Mercury's picture

Eh....he was a tech guy...and a printer!

It does amaze me though that it took humanity thousands of years (until Franklin) to figure out that if you built a fire in a metal box you'd get much more heat out of it (although the Russians had small ceramic stoves that effectively did the same thing).

Fri, 07/01/2011 - 15:58 | 1419988 Rodent Freikorps
Rodent Freikorps's picture

It takes a pot bellied stove to make coal useful to heat a home.

You can buy one on ebay today.

Fri, 07/01/2011 - 15:40 | 1419906 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

"not worth a continental"  was a phrase from the revolution, which was financed with these paper dollars.  abundantly, too! 

the mint put out 2 franklin commem dollars (90% coin silver/0.77 toz) c. 2006:  "statesman" & "scientist".  some dealers sell these at a small premium to melt value. 

Fri, 07/01/2011 - 18:39 | 1420367 Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

Franklin was a scientist, he thought in positive potentials terms.

Fiat (unbacked paper) Money is an invention as powerful as nuclear power.

If used properly, in a rational manner by wise people, then with both you get a great gift for all.

If misused... well, you know.

Fri, 07/01/2011 - 19:03 | 1420408 Rynak
Rynak's picture

If we already assume rational, fair and mutualistic actions by the leaders, then what for do we even need the pretense of democracy (pure representative democracy, isn't democracy in any practically significant way)? I mean, by that logic benevolent dictators should be the best bet?

Or is that just another one of those "split worldview" cases of scientists and engineers?

Fri, 07/01/2011 - 19:18 | 1420442 topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

yeah a conundrum

Democracy only works if people continue to make the correct decisions and not fuck up the economy.

Of course a dictatorship probably functions similarly.

I prefer a libertarian dictatorship.  It will take a lot of enforcement to maintain individual liberty and personal responsibility and prevent the government from growing.

Plato observed that democracy always kills itself when people realize they can vote themselves money from the public treasure.

Fri, 07/01/2011 - 19:35 | 1420473 Rynak
Rynak's picture

So far, it appears the majority of money and economic stability, is initially not taken by the public, but by those who control the gov.

In any case, a "democracy", where the "democratic" part consists of people voting for people to lead a country, and those people being made immune to consequences of their own actions, and where people have no way to affect policies directly - is at best "democracy" by word, and none by reality.

Fri, 07/01/2011 - 19:47 | 1420488 topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

If the government didn't have any money, no one would be interested in lobbying it or stealing from it.  Not a perfect solution, but voluntary association and individual liberty with someone around just to maintain the rules of the game (and nothing more) would be austere, but it prevents the problem of corrupted government from ocurring.

Fri, 07/01/2011 - 20:07 | 1420512 Rynak
Rynak's picture

How can the government be worth no lobbying money, if it is capable of doing anything significant? Or are we going to monitor the wealth of politicians and ex-politicians? If yes, then this specific measure has my "go ahead"... i'm not sure if it will work, but i guess it cannot hurt.

Fri, 07/01/2011 - 20:18 | 1420538 topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

I suppose we try to make the federal government incapable of doing anything except enforcing the basic rights and preventing the states from enacting trade barriers.

Everything else should be up to the states.  You then have an option of moving to a similar culture if your own state starts fucking up, such as failing to address pollution, etc.

I would suggest that the more local the important decisions the more likely the people are to have a vested interest in their expense and potential outcome of "doing anything significant."

Fri, 07/01/2011 - 21:11 | 1420615 Rynak
Rynak's picture

Okay. Hmm, i'll ignore for now that even "small decisions" are worth something, because there is a more pressing matter:

How would things be addressed, that are inter-state? Things that affect the entire "federation"? After all, if there were no such things, there would be no point to the federation, and states may as well be totally souvereign nations. So, how are such "hollistic" matters handled, especially regarding trade conventions (which is just a nicer word for "regulation")?

Would it be addressed purely by consensual cooperation between states (something like a "forum" where they can discuss cooperation and alliances between states on topics)? Would there be something like a "gov", that coordinates and enforces decisions made beforehand by individual states? Or would the gov first design nationwide things on its own, and then ask states for acceptance?

As you can see, there are multiple ways how things can be managed on a nation-level, even if states keep the upper hand (if only because they can veto everything, in the later case).... yet, in many of those variants, lobbying may be profitable, even if the "return" is not as high as in current governments?

(EDIT: I personally prefer the "higher-order" entity designing things, BUT with the lower order entities being able to veto everything, and this way implicitely encouraging a cooperative approach between both. But this doesn't address the corruption issue completely.)

And what about budgets?

Sat, 07/02/2011 - 10:50 | 1421158 knowless
knowless's picture

everything is an interstate issue, the separate parties would be held in check by the different regional governments mutual support on issues. if two states had a border dispute involving trade, a party from a third state could be contracted to oversee and mitigate the issue, instead of the federal government itself. the separations would allow for more creative and less invasive solutions to issues between entities.

the federal government rules over all, instead of the states finding solutions that work through mutual aid, think about this distinction when reading the constitution and looking at how america works today.


the federal government should be a forum for interstate decision making and nothing more.

Sat, 07/02/2011 - 12:20 | 1421201 Rynak
Rynak's picture

I've got a 4th option:

Take what you've described, and add:

1. A federal "design" board, that has almost no capital (besides of a rather low income per person working on the board, and a pitiful static yearly budget for electricity bills, communications and stuff). And which's members are elected directly from the population. The board would hav no legislative, judicative and executive power, but instead purely would provide data, stats, tracking and ideas to the forum. So, pure national tracking, information and design concepts as an optional service, with no power to legislate, judge or enforce.

2. The population of a state always being able to overrule state-decisions by direct vote. That is: Normally the state governs a state's population. However, if the population is dissatisfied with certain things, then it can selectively do direct democracy. This way, not even states can strongly ignore their own population.

Fri, 07/01/2011 - 23:10 | 1420750 snowball777
snowball777's picture

believe it or not, Benjamin Franklin was a huge fan of paper money.


He was a printer, and thus a businessman, and smelled potential profit in the contracts to provide said paper money (he even had a tech edge on anti-counterfeiting).

He was brilliant and an effective rallying point for the founding of the country, but ethically weak in many, many ways.

Fri, 07/01/2011 - 14:17 | 1419636 LongBalls
LongBalls's picture

I would bet Boehner took home one hefty "Skin's game" check during his golf outing with Obama. Now to scare the freshmen.

Fri, 07/01/2011 - 14:20 | 1419638 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Sounds like the perfectly logical and defensible "let it tick until it explodes because we can't defuse it without great pain" argument.

OK, so don't stop the QE because we eventually won't be able to roll the debt. Don't raise the debt ceiling and we won't be able to roll the debt. Don't jail the guilty or fail the big banks because we won't be able to keep the system working. And on and on and on. Sounds like we are the moral hazard around here.

The pain must be felt if the wound is to be cleaned. We are down to denying the wound in order to deny the pain for just a little while longer. Either we scrub the wound clean or we die from the gangrene.

Sounds like we've pretty much agreed to die from the gangrene.

Fri, 07/01/2011 - 14:26 | 1419656 gdogus erectus
gdogus erectus's picture

"It's only a flesh wound."

Fri, 07/01/2011 - 14:23 | 1419659 Dr. No
Dr. No's picture

The repubs won this one.  Someone needs to tell Obama, its easy.  Go on T.V., state that the US Congress passed a budget to fund all of the programs in the budget.  The debt celing is preventing the executive branch from executing the budget (i.e. Law) as passed by congress.  In the event the debt ceiling is exceeded, the president will start cutting programs he sees fit by executive order.  end of story. 

In other news, repubs rejoin talks to keep the spending binge equitable.

Fri, 07/01/2011 - 14:47 | 1419716 DosZap
DosZap's picture

The LAST sob you want cutting programs is what we/some call our leader.

Fri, 07/01/2011 - 16:01 | 1420013 Rodent Freikorps
Rodent Freikorps's picture

The obama administration is above the law.

Why would they care about that one, except for the political points?

Fri, 07/01/2011 - 16:31 | 1420115 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

See 14th Amendment, Section 4:

Section 4. The validity of the public debt of the United States, authorized by law, including debts incurred for payment of pensions and bounties for services in suppressing insurrection or rebellion, shall not be questioned. But neither the United States nor any State shall assume or pay any debt or obligation incurred in aid of insurrection or rebellion against the United States, or any claim for the loss or emancipation of any slave; but all such debts, obligations and claims shall be held illegal and void.

Fri, 07/01/2011 - 16:39 | 1420142 Rodent Freikorps
Rodent Freikorps's picture

It is wrong to cherry pick parts of the Constitution.

All, or none.

Fri, 07/01/2011 - 16:50 | 1420169 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

The subject at hand is the debt.  This addresses the debt specifically.

No cherry-picking going on here.

Fri, 07/01/2011 - 16:57 | 1420184 Rodent Freikorps
Rodent Freikorps's picture

Okay, lets not question the validity. Let's just not pay it anyway.

Fri, 07/01/2011 - 18:39 | 1420372 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

Point being, Obama can declare the Republicans irrelevant.

Fri, 07/01/2011 - 19:03 | 1420414 Rodent Freikorps
Rodent Freikorps's picture

Yeah, that is getting floated by most lefty blogs.

Go ahead, I dare him. Declare the Reichstag irrelevant.

Loose the dogs of war. I look forward to a Constitutional crisis.

Fri, 07/01/2011 - 19:28 | 1420457 topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

Shows how scared the socialists are.  They know they are trapped.

yeah go ahead Obama.  I dare you.

Fri, 07/01/2011 - 20:40 | 1420574 krispkritter
krispkritter's picture

+1 Revolution. If that's what it takes.

Fri, 07/01/2011 - 22:06 | 1420664 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

My point is that it's a possible fly in the ointment.  I couldn't care less.

Fri, 07/01/2011 - 22:12 | 1420675 Calmyourself
Calmyourself's picture

That would be a very bad idea.  If preserving the bought and paid for liberal voting bloc takes trashing the constitution that blatantly, the end of the beginning is near.

Sat, 07/02/2011 - 01:44 | 1420846 OldTrooper
OldTrooper's picture

Rules of construction require a reading to give effect to all of the document - including the power of congress to raise money and authorize spending and the first amendment (which quite clearly states that we can question whatever we damn well please).  The Rodent is quite right IMO.

Of course, that doesn't mean it won't happen.  It's been quite a while since the Constitution really restrained any of the ass-hats in DC.

Sat, 07/02/2011 - 01:47 | 1420848 Quixotic_Not
Quixotic_Not's picture

They've already defaulted, the U.S. Treasury missed a trust fund payment.


Fri, 07/01/2011 - 19:29 | 1420462 topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

nothing has to go into default.  There is plenty of money coming in to cover debt payments.  I guess Timmah will just have to prioritize.

Fri, 07/01/2011 - 23:29 | 1420773 TaxSlave
TaxSlave's picture

Re: The 14th amendment:

The debt is in the form of BONDS.  Bonds are sold on the assurance that the government that issues them will use threat of imprisonment or death on the citizens to extract payment.  Bonds are BONDAGE.

That debt is literally intended to enslave me. It is therefore illegal and void.

So much debt has been sold that we are to be enslaved for generations to pay it back, though it can never be paid back.  Nobody questions whether it can be paid back.  Nobody believes it can be paid back.  In our dream world, it need never be paid back, just keep borrowing more and more.  It will never be paid back.  The only question is whether we will allow ourselves to be enslaved by the debt.

Two crimes happen when the Fed prints money and loans it to the government.  The first crime is counterfeiting.  When the government spends that money into the economy, that money devalues your savings and the value of your labor.  The second crime is the theft of even more from the victim in order to pay back the counterfeiter with real wealth, in exchange for zero value delivered.  It is the second crime that is the worst, most pernicious.

No debt to a printing press is valid.

You don't own me.  It's not my debt, and I'm not paying it!

Fri, 07/01/2011 - 17:08 | 1420209 Dr. No
Dr. No's picture

Agree they are above the law.  I am just outlining a political strategy.  I am indifferent to the outcome eitherway since i realize there is nothing I can do about the situation.  Politically, Obama could threaten draconian cuts to republican programs to get their attention.  Since he is not, I have to assume a deal is already done.

Sat, 07/02/2011 - 10:35 | 1421155 sun tzu
sun tzu's picture

What are Republican programs?

The military? Then how will he fund his Libya kinetic action?

Foreign aid? Go ahead.

Welfare? Go ahead.

Agriculture subsidies? Go ahead. 

Green energy? Go ahead. 

Social security and medicare? Go ahead

Fri, 07/01/2011 - 17:06 | 1420205 ATG
ATG's picture

Go on T.V., state that the US Congress passed a budget to fund all of the programs in the budget.

Minor detail:

The D Congress hasn't passed a budget for two years

Fri, 07/01/2011 - 18:32 | 1420366 Dr. No
Dr. No's picture

When is the last time truth found its way into a presidential speech?

Fri, 07/01/2011 - 14:23 | 1419661 Silver Dreamer
Silver Dreamer's picture

I never agreed to anything.  They did.  As usual though, your post is spot on.  We are screwed.  Them?  I guess it depends on how well they invested in security.

Fri, 07/01/2011 - 15:50 | 1419959 WaterWings
WaterWings's picture


When someone includes me by saying "we" have made mistakes, I have to correct them.

I do not consent to be governed by criminals.

Fri, 07/01/2011 - 18:01 | 1420310 lesterbegood
lesterbegood's picture

Nor do I.

The US Federal Corporation is not my government.

Fri, 07/01/2011 - 19:13 | 1420429 Rynak
Rynak's picture

The US government is not a corporation. It may however be used like a sockpuppet by megacorps and banks.

That may sound as if there is no difference, but there is a difference: If the US gov were a corporation, and the politicians shareholders, they would have a stake in national finances. They don't, and neither do the mentioned megacorps and banks. No one except of the population is forced to be affected by consequences of the actions of the gov. A traditional government is all "The politicians decide, the population is affected."

Good old subject/object split in the form of a causal break.

Fri, 07/01/2011 - 19:31 | 1420472 topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

the founding fathers could find no way out of this dilemma.  They decided the only way to adress this was to keep government as limited as possible.

Fri, 07/01/2011 - 19:58 | 1420508 Rynak
Rynak's picture

What? They really were aware about this? What in...... this is fatal. How many of the biggest problems in human civilization, including the oh so..... "objective"... sciences..... (wave/particle dualism anyone?).... are subject/object dichotomies? Everything in civilization is fucked up because of this repeating pattern... and yet they were satisfied with a hackfix, and built an entire nation on this?

From what i have red and heard so far of the founders, i have a lot of respect for them. But if the above is true, then they knowingly fell short of addressing the root issue of everything. Crap, in the case of finances, they could at least have attempted a better patch.... like, even just affecting politician wealth by democratic means, after they did their job.

Fri, 07/01/2011 - 20:14 | 1420530 topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

They didn't use the exact same words as you, but I have just been amazed at what I have read in the federalist papers and other writers of the enlightenment.  The whole premise of  a limited, self government was to try to avoid the split and its consequences.

As to finding a better patch.  They did the best they could with the cacophony of voices around them and the inevitable compromises.  No solution is perfect

Sat, 07/02/2011 - 00:56 | 1420823 snowball777
snowball777's picture

They had plenty of negative examples of intrusive government from which to derive motivation.

Sat, 07/02/2011 - 07:27 | 1421063 Rodent Freikorps
Rodent Freikorps's picture

The Intolerable Acts were less outrageous than what we live with daily these days.

Fri, 07/01/2011 - 20:35 | 1420568 infinity8
infinity8's picture

I'm starting to like you.

Fri, 07/01/2011 - 23:16 | 1420759 Man Bear Pig
Man Bear Pig's picture

If the US were a corporation, shareholders would be dollar holders (a dollar is a stake in the FUTURE productivity of US citizens and assets), politicians would make up the various levels of management, and the lowly peons that actually do the work and generate the revenue would obviously be the US taxpayer. Actually we are, in every way, a corporation.

Like any other corporation, we cater to the shareholders, not the laborers.

Fri, 07/01/2011 - 14:18 | 1419642 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

If the debt ceiling is not raised, the US will be downgraded?  What the...?

Fri, 07/01/2011 - 14:31 | 1419687 faustian bargain
faustian bargain's picture

Don't you remember what whats-his-name - Pete Stark - said? "The more debt we have, the richer we are!"

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