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A Tale Of Two Decouplings
Well, really one, but still sufficiently stunning. The chart below will show conclusively and definitively that the EURJPY is the only factor that determines each and every tick of the stock market. Now the EURUSD has completely decoupled, and is pursuing some stress test dream, even as the E&Y is correlating 100%. The market is nothing, nothing, more than the daily leveraging and deleveraging of the Euro-Yen carry trade. Nothing else matters - fundamentals, technicals, lunar cycles, sun spots, Gulf manatees, sneezing pandas... All that is relevant is whether or not some trading desk is putting the carry trade on or off.
EURUSD
EURJPY
We'll let readers derive their own convergence trades out of this.
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Amen, bro.
Personally, I'm more interested in the action in gold around 1250.
The Evil Empire will defend, at all costs, the 1250 level because beyond there, there be dragons. However, there is no such chart formation as a triple-top. Usually, its three taps and you're out. So, who's gonna win? Will gold be beaten back again or will it plow through?
My best guess is three taps and out. Next stop 1290.
Maybe the Soc Gen Quant Desk(s) could look into the depth of Ms Drury's clevage plunge correlated against a daily
+ve / -ve SPX close.
Mmmmm. Mandy....
I tell ya what, though, that Trish is looking awfully fucking good today, too.
Her worse day (beauty wise) is still better than the best day for many. Natural beauty is hard to compete with.
Btw, CD, I meant to follow up on your comments of yesterday.
I, too, have been in the "industry" for 20+ years, eight of which as an "advisor". My role in pimping the ponzi makes me sick to my stomach.
I'm actually surrendering my license on August 1. I'm leaving this business entirely and headed off in a different direction. Since I can no longer promote the ponzi, I'm left with no choice. I will take my accumulated knowledge and experience and protect myself and my family's interests. I will warn as many others as I can in the time remaining.
Turd,
Thank you for following up. This entire sub-subject has been an area I want to explore further. Will you be sticking around ZH past August because I would like to get some input from you as I explore this subject? Of course, no names and privacy protected and the right to reject what I write regarding you. What say you?
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Do not surrender your license! Keep being a financial advisor, but be a good one. Tell everyone to go Gold, Silver, and various other precious metals.
You might not understand that to be a financial advisor (particularly at the higher level I maintain of CFP(M), RIA, CFA, CLU etc) means you must act in a "proper" way. Which means the consensus view of what properly diversified is by today's "standards". Which means if there is a complaint about you and the SEC comes in and sees you have advised people to take such an "aggressive" position, you most likely would be considered in breach of your fiduciary obligation.
It's like walking a tightrope between the lions and the vampires.
Hey Turd,
I'm an independent RIA (spent several years working for the beast). My feeling is, regular people need help. Most people, with normal amounts of money, aren't going to learn what they need to in order to navigate what's ahead. Honesty and wisdom are more valuable than ever. Heck, I was also a Peace Corps volunteer and I think this is an area where folks like us can do good.
My personal thought is that the whole industry is on a sales model. It needs to be on an education model. Maybe that's the way through this, for normal folks.
"It's like walking a tightrope between the lions and the vampires."
Indeed...
I quit considering a career a "licensed" financial advisor long ago and the CFA designation has lost its value in my view--although it does give a good understanding of mainstream econ, finance, etc, etc...I would argue the ethics portion, although quite intense in study, does not do much in practice...many of the charterholders were a part of the fraud and work at a lot the big houses....(of course, the majority of CFA charterholders are decent people, many I know (and would trust) in our local society are excellent managers of money.....
Loved the sneezing panda. Momma might have been startled but she didn't stop chewing.
Regarding the decoupling. This is exactly why the market will ultimately crash. When everyone is chasing one thing, everyone will run off the cliff in pursuit. Or reverse direction to avoid the cliff and cause the crash that way.
Study some engineering disasters for parallels. GW had a post some time ago talking about this concept.
:) http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3mclp9QmCGs
Coincidentally, four months is about how long the HFT "bridge" has held together, too.
Also, with everyone chasing the same trade (at the speed of light) the margin to be made will decline, so they'll probably have to amp up the leverage. Sounds familiar.
what an utter sick joke
I hope this sick f*cking system dies soon along with all the satanists who created it
Teh usa bond market is sending a telegraph today. It sounds like this: ... _ _ _ ...
Flash Crash... Flash Crash....
Apparently, GS isn't quite done squeezing their own clients that shorted the EUR at 1.19.
Once they advise their clients to start taking those huge losses, and reinstate the EUR 1.35 call, all hell will break lose.
Watching today's action on the indexes and currencies reminds me of the stage 4 sprint of the Tour de Suisse a couple days ago everybody goes down but Gold, Bitches! http://www.steephill.tv/players/youtube/?title=tds-2010-st4-crash-finish...
Watched that 1 1/2 min video for 15mins. Great stuff
tyler
your opening comments on topics are priceless
And I was wondering why Trichet refuses to drop the interest rate below 1% despite the chaos in the euro zone banking sector, literally zero inflation, and despite printing gezillions and unlimmited liquidity to the banks which effectively meant zero rate. Now TD has the answer - the great global reflation passes through Brussels - the ECB, Fed and JCB are working with the MM to pump paper assets. So now that EUR/JPY is nearing key support, its over to JCB to sell the yen, and that is exactly what is happening at this instant.
Watching the ES fight to stay above the 200DMA is rather amusing and sad. It is like an oil covered beached fish fight to breath on land.
Yes, SPX is doing everything in its power to stay above the 200 dma. If it closes above, you'll hear every bull on the planet tell us how once again the market is looking past lagging data and forward, etc., etc,
Honestly, this video shows how I feel about this whole thing. Note: to the shy among us, this vid is not for you. It's about a minor league ball game. It's a couple minutes long, but shows just how I'd perform if I were ever asked to testify:
http://blip.tv/file/2856053
lol. Pretty irrational way to behave though.
Now don't be dissing lunar cycles.
http://carolan.org/wp-content/uploads/2010/06/dowsolunar1.gif
Doggy Daddy..., is that you?
Fucking Arch Crawford had made millions over the past 30 years pushing that nonsense. He's the Daddy of The Mack.
Thanks for the spot lights on the carry trades, as of late. I didn't even know what a carry trade was until Jim Willie explained it on King World News last year. He probably sounded crazy to most people back then. He may still be crazy, but in the good way.
Those EURUSD bullish warnings have strengthened further today.
Vice versa for the USD index of course.
It seems the current EURUSD downleg has ended.
http://stockmarket618.wordpress.com
I read, I assimilate, I get crossed eyes. The correlation is graphically easy to see, but its significance is lost on me. I apologize for being dense or uneducated. If...
...then what changes? Does this realtionship have to alter? Then what?
On the other hand, since I am not a trader, should it matter? Why?
Please put your answers in essay form, they will be graded for style and syntax.
Yes, No, Maybe, Barbadoes, Encyclopedia and style always matters. :>)
Style A+, Syntax D-
Good try, but I remain confused. So, what else is new....
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