You're now on the archive server. Commenting has been disabled.
Taleb On The Other Perspective
Love him or hate him, he has been right before, and is very likely correct again. Pay particular attention to Nassim's claim on the impact of marginal buyers: exemplified all too well by the 10.8% decline in short interest in the second week of July and the resulting 9% squeeze in the S&P.
»
- 10052 reads
- Printer-friendly version
- Send to friend
Mr Taleb gave them a lesson on CNBC.
Why does watching that video remind me of this?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ky7DMCHQJZY
fewer people have the guts to say what is really going on. Roubini like many others is thinking about what job he'll get (may be in the gov't?) if he keeps smiling. Black Swan I guess made enough money from book sales and is not as interested.. but he, Marc Faber and a few others are truly the exception.
If you seek a high profile job trashing Bernanke does not help.
In such momentarily divorced-from-fundamentals markets, we could see, say, the S&P 500 Index hit a P/E of 45 or so, before the Summer Games come to an end, upon the realization that real wages are decreasing
His message was being spread and gaining even more support...therefore he needed
to be censored.
Until we have guys like Black back as regulators nothing will
change. We just
good articles;
target="_blank">my newest bookmarked finance website
href="http://www.iamned.com" target="_blank">finance news & finance opinions
Taleb...love him...can do without Roubini..
You can lead the Sheeple to water!
"fewer people employed, with same level of debt. Converting private debt to government debt." Succinct. Thanks for posting for us who keep the vid behind us, on mute, tuned to bbg.
took 28 minutes to regain all of yesterdays losses? you stay bearish Tyler!!
Another squeeze of all the new shorts.
When the shorts finally get fed up with the constant punishment and they try to get more in with a drop, that is when it will really fall!
I seriously doubt all of this activity is a short squeeze. More likely I would expect the equity markets to rise until Ben's job prospects are determined in Oct. The sheer amount of liquidity put on the markets by reserve clearly show they are scared like they have never been. It is this reason, in believe, why they are not trying to hide their manipulation activities.
I agree. The fundamentals support prices at these levels, and perhaps higher! There's never been a better time to BUY BUY BUY!!!
It's pretty clear that a good part of the rally in recent weeks has been a short squeeze. I looked at the 30 stocks on the S&P 500 with the highest short interest as a percentage of outstanding shares as of July 14. From July 14 into early August (don't remember the exact date I did the analysis, think it was around August 5), those 30 were up an average of 26.8% versus an increase of 8.9% for the S&P 500.
That's the way. Drop your shorts and join the party. It's Bubble-bath Ben and his merry men
A clever man would have put the poision into his own goblet, because he would know only a great fool would reach for what he is given, but I am clearly not a great fool, so I cannot choose the long side, BUT.. You must have counted on me not being a great fool, so I can clearly not choose the short side...
LOL!!!!!!!!
love that movie btw
Which movie is that?
princess bride i believe.
..anybody want a peanut?
"took 28 minutes to regain all of yesterdays losses?"
Just more proof it pays to be dumb in America...
.
we can not stay bearish longer than you can stay a garbage posting imbecile; and we can stay bearish for a very very long time ..
what is more important? being right or making money?
Nice, so Gekko-ish.
i have the money; so guess
Not being herded to the showers.
good analogy
His message was being spread and gaining even more support...therefore he needed
to be censored.
Until we have guys like Black back as regulators nothing will
change. We just
good articles;
target="_blank">my newest bookmarked finance website
href="http://www.iamned.com" target="_blank">finance news & finance opinions
143 P/E (approx) on the S&P is clearly sustainable
You're right...i'll get long
hehe, got another one maw!
Everybody in the pool!!
I keep finding different numbers for the P/E
on the S&P. Which number is closest from which
source?
I keep finding different numbers for the P/E
on the S&P. Which number is closest from which
source?
By definition all this volatility tells you that this is a bear market rally. You seem to subscribe to the bigger fool theory (things go up as long as there is a greater fool to buy them). Careful - you don't want to be that fool or your downside is 90%.
If you have the confidence to trade this rally do so by all means, but it is a very, very risky business.
Fantastic piece! But hey, markets are up, fugehdaboutit!
I became a member of Coping with Disbelief Clinic...
I am joining the Sheeple Club
the story of my life; the more i have learned the more the world seemed ape-shit insane to me ... oh and fucking beyond any probability to sustain itself on the long run ..
Will you marry me????
are you a chick and do you like hard liquor
Jimmy Choo's and only Tequila!!!
ok
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hyf1LZsz0wQ&feature=PlayList&p=89CAEC892EEA36E3&playnext=1&playnext_from=PL&index=2
careful, assuming anyone on ZH is a dude. Quantcast says ZH's readers are about 82% male.
http://www.quantcast.com/zerohedge.com
and 94% of us have no kids! congrats to this crew! no wonder 40% of us are over 100k/year! hehehe
this poster has a dick, run away. Totally avoided the "are you a chick" part... definitely more important than the hard liquor question...
Unfortunately, I do not posses a dick, but if I did..it would certainly be bigger and thicker than yours....
Sure, you and your trading station.
You never know.. It just may be anyway
lets see if we make new highs that hold before gettting giddy.
Why pull the bandaid off quickly when you can pull it off so slowly that you will be dead before the real blood starts flowing...
You can say what you want about Taleb--his main point--that the situation is the same after spending all this money--and you have rewarded the failures(bankers) and on top of that--the same ones are in charge--how do you argue with his premise?
Want more reality..watch this...
How can you expect these guys to represent us in government when they seem to have a greater allegiance to themselves?
Wednesday - August 12
La Fraternité de Goldman Sachs
http://www.deanlebaron.com/index.html
THANK YOU Anon 33809. While some on this blog are obsessed with chicks-with-dicks today you have brought to our attention a man with SERIOUS CREDENTIALS who has BEEN BELOW THE RADER FOR TOO LONG.
Mr. LeBaron is our Harvard B School/inside Wall Street version of Max Keiser.
Here is the link again.
http://www.deanlebaron.com/index.html#video
I recommend the video entitled "Criminal Behavior:Goldman Sachs"
Seems like only Roubini understood what Talib was saying, and that even he doesn't really want to acknowledge the truth.
He jumped the shark!!!! Watch him replace Summers...
They were screaming in his earpiece to be a good wallstreet boy.
Where was Talib's? Not converted yet.
Toll Brothers (TOL), 42% decline in revenues, stock up 13% today. Is there something wrong with this picture?
After further review we have determined the definition of wrong was hindering our progress so we changed it to mean right.
A lot of shorters getting squeezed as per usual.
Fed and the Gov say you are not allowed to short, so GS and the rest pretend the market goes down and get new fuel supplies in, then hit them hard with a small amount of buying, that triggers the stop domino run, the bigger the run the more succesful they were getting new shorts on board!
Oh and I forgot to say... add... frontrunning to the shorts closing and sell to them higher up while grabbing their delicate parts in a vice!
Bob Toll says orders in July were up year over year by 3%, the first increase in 4 years, and that cancellation rates were down last month. Green shoots!
Or another selling opportunity for Bob Toll. He raised over $42 million through sales of TOL earlier this year but his last sales were in early April. My guess is some of those sales via an "automatic sale program" will be kicking in before long.
WSJ said Toll was cheap (no pun).
I agree with Taleb on BB. He is more responsible for this mess than anyone else. He should be sacked.
We need to let the water out slowly??? WTF..and the plumbers are GS...
Carl Q. is a Mimbo who somehow thinks he's the intellectual equal of people like Steinhardt, Taleb and Roubini. He should be slapped every time he interrupts a serious guest with one of his ridiculous analogies or other stupid comments.
The best of Carl Queen for the day...Mr. Stanford, how does it feel to be a Billionaire???? This pendejo should be sent back across the border to report on Narco crimes...lol
i hope their arab sounding names wont be labelled as financial terrorists
\
Hey Tyler. Do you think the 2:15 FOMC will include a going concern clause?
Everything, that is markets, will return to SEPT 08 levels by SEPT 09 and we will rinse and repeat.
I am also warning against the risk of diseased governments.
The dynamic duo! kudos for the post.
Since it isn't traded by bots and black boxes, isn't the plummeting price of electricity really a better gauge of the economy and the true price of assets (stocks, houses, etc.) than most of what's traded in liquid markets or the numbers the government makes up (US government and other governments)?
THAT is a very astute observation. Wish I had thought of it!
...I have dug up the requisite bodies and have created a post on it
...And here it is http://www.zerohedge.com/forum/fried-green-shoots-us-electricity-product...
Oil inventories were up today weren't they? Less use of oil means, oh a green shoot... buy oil and oil stocks
You are spot on....but since when does funamentals mean a damn thing anymore?
what is it about quasi-european types and their italian loafers with no socks?
I'm jealous, can we all just agree to go sockless? socks are just uselss pieces of cloth to mask uncomfortable shoes.
Roubini has clearly gone over to the dark side - (or perhaps never left) - he can taste a White House appointment
i love this TV show : bright foreigner thinkers, dumb american journalists.
But I put on a mustard plaster over those little black buboules and they aren't visible anymore.
All Fixed. Cough, cough
Ah, what a difference from their last appearance - wasn't it around that very table a few months ago that they were heckled for stock tips?
I was not surprised by anything said, but am beside myself that Taleb was allowed to actually get his thoughts out in a coherent manner without being interrupted.
Taleb is brilliant. A one-man band of realism.
Why is everyone obsessed with Bernanke's job prospect's? These decisions are not his alone. Do you think someone will come in and save main street? Seriously...
looks like CNBC killed this video, it doesn't play for me
Taleb: "...greenspan, berhake, geitner, summers caused the problems..." You could see that Roubini was cringing because he is part of this theocracy/ clan. So he very conspicuously didnt confirm this viewpoint.
Prof. Taleb scores again -- big time!
The Prof said it best, Bernanke does not understand credit derivatives and securitization, nor does the supposed "Great Depression expert" understand that securitization is what led up to the previous Great Depression - taking some 20 to 40 years, while thanks to the Internet, the Web, fiber optics and computer-to-computer communication, this time around it only took a few years. Recommended reading: "Collapse of Complex Societies" by Joseph A. Tainer (very applicable to our time)
Sorry, that author was Joseph A. TAINTER
Tainter? Unfortunate name, hmmm?
Roubini has clearly gone over to the dark side - (or perhaps never left) - he can taste a White House appointment
Recently spotted him in Hamptons with Soros!!! nuff said.
God damn, Nick, tell us how you really feel.
My God, he verbally bitch slapped Nouriel there in the end when he rebuked him with his silly school bus metaphor (WTF?)
Notice how that whole studio was silent? The place was just stunned with raw truth telling, something that apparently never occurs within the fallowed halls of CNBC.
I am Chumbawamba.
Taleb doesn't get it either. Volcker sent us into this by not letting the dollar devalue, and rewarding the financial community with a strong dollar.
The Volcker strong dollar killed industry by disinermediating commercial debt, and increasing the US wage base relative to the rest of world, setting us on the course of banana republics who try to sustain cheap imports.
Actually, I back Bernancke. He gets it. The dollar must find its correct value in the world to balance imports with exports. The current BoP deficit is a deepening pit. Government debt is a deepening pit which must be met with printing. We do not have the wages to pay back the government debt. Only Bernanke can pay back our debt which he is doing.
So what you're saying is you support a long term hyperinflationary period (3-4 years) versus a 1 year deflationary depression which would have corrected the system as a whole and left the US Dollar, fiat as it is, intact?
That's insanity. Hyperinflation, even if it is moderated to a 40-50% range annually will change the political and societal structure of the United States forever. And that is the choice they are making so you should be thrilled with Benron's course of action. I hope you are prepared for the new society that emerges on the other side.
His message was being spread and gaining even more support...therefore he needed to be censored.
Until we have guys like Black back as regulators nothing will change. We just
good articles;
target="_blank">my newest bookmarked finance website
href="http://www.iamned.com" target="_blank">finance news & finance opinions
yes rubini and soros have been long term friends. soros sponsors roubin's Chair at NYU. they also attend the same synagogue in manhattans Upper east side.
I think Taleb is really Andy Kaufman.
Volker?,but,is he really thinking Summers?
Taleb runs the same tape again and again...he needs to comeup with new stuff...masala