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TCW Explains Why The Double Dip Has Arrived
A week ago TCW's chief economist announced he would hold a presentation for clients explaining why the Double Dip has arrived. Here is the powerpoint used by Komal Sri-Kumar on the call.
The Double Dip Is Here! (pdf)
h/t Credit Trader
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getcha popcorn ready, bitchez!!
OT:
Rep. Paul Calls for Gold Audit, Questions Whether Fort Knox Is Emptyhttp://www.foxnews.com/politics/2010/08/31/rep-paul-calls-fort-knox-audi...
Ron Paul better watch out, old people have accidents all the time.
It's not like he hasn't painted a big target on his back. Huge respect for the man and his willingness to attack the pillars of the control of the corrupt system we live in. Love this plan to, because an audit of the gold holdings sounds so innocent, and denying it might make people ask "If the gold is there then why not count it?".
Right, kind of like, "Why not show your birth certificate?"
Isn't there a better anti-Obama website to go play on? I hear ya, and Obama is clearly a numbskull and pawn of his masters at Goldman et al, but I think he probably is an American and nominally a Christian to boot. You are being used by TPTB that want you to obsess over this and other similar distractions so you don't see the real movements of the hands of the card dealers.
Wow. You're jumping in kind of strong and imputing obsession to another poster with more vehemence than there was to his post.
Frankly, one would hardly have to be a "birther" to have come up with that analogy.
Wow. You're retarded.
No, wow, YOU are retarded.
Am I making myself clear?
You're breaking up.
Here's 20 pictures of Obama's birth certificate.
It took me 14 seconds to google.
Maybe if you took 14 seconds to use google, instead of 14 seconds to write a stupid assed post, we wouldn't be at this point.
http://www.factcheck.org/elections-2008/born_in_the_usa.html
you fail to mention this is a "reducted" certificate, and Obamo has yet to produce, nor the State of HI< a certificate of live birth. That cert can be issued up to 30 days after a childs birth, per HI statutes. Not every conspiracy is a theory.
True he does have a target on his back, but presidential election season (next 2 years) is starting soon and if he could get this into the narrative of issues I'd consider it a small victory. I wonder if the RNC will let him debate this time?
Not a chance. The RNC has few convictions of its own other than catering to those who have their jewels in the vice, either directly or indirectly.
If they can get Palin to make enough noise, the RNC may feel they can safely let Ron Paul on stage again. She is going to have to get really noisy though, as Hucksterbee failed in his distraction mission last time, leaving the work instead to Giuliani, who promptly fragged himself.
That was my favorite episode of Survivor.
Problem is Paul scares the neoconned elements of the Tea Party crowd; the ones who think freedom comes from creating an Uber Police State to police home and abroad, and who can't comprehend that doing so abroad merely galvanizes otherwise indifferent (or those preoccupied with a more local enemy) into becoming your enemy. Hell, I'd be pretty pissed off for life if some foreign nation dropped a bomb killing half the guests / the bride n groom, etc. at my family's wedding party.
But I digress. Paul's too libertarian on that front for the GOP and even it's fiscally pissed-off factions that normally support it lock-step.
With respect to the Tea Party, you really don't understand its tenets or know what you're talking about. Yet you took the time and made the effort to spread your ignorance by muddying the waters. That's why I junked you.
Tea Party candidates = a bunch of candidates that used to be Republicans, but don't want to run as Republicans because it's not cool anymore.
Tea Party supporters = "We don't support either political party, but all of our candidates are washed up Republicans!"
The lesson? You're voting Republican if you vote for the Tea Party. If you're a Republican, there's nothing wrong with that.
If you try to act like you just want to "throw all the bums out" and then only vote for Tesa Party candidates, you're just voting for the same Republicans that already failed.
RE Geek,
Spare me your're critique,. I've been to enough Tea Party rallies to understand, first hand, that plenty of attendees and leaders are neoconned thoroughly. Note: You may wish to reread my post before you go correcting me and "junking" my comments. I didn't say the entire Tea Party. Yes, there is a mix. But plenty enough of them fit the bill of exactly what I wrote.
No I won’t spare you, because you’re a conceited douche trying to rely on semantics to avoid criticism. We both know what you meant.
Paul can take Palin's place in the debate, since she has to have her "daddy" John McCain next to her in interviews and she tried to cancel the debate with Biden.
I bet he'd say also and you betcha about 50 times less each.
Double Dip?
NOPE! This is a Sixth Sense Economy.
That presentation is merely quantifying in economic terms the moment Bruce Willis realizes he's actually been dead the whole time.... Well, at least since 2007.
Yes, folks. Reality is a bitch.
-- in faith,
M. Night Shyamalangadingdong
Shamalamadingdong....oh, oh, oh, no!
TUNGSTEN BITCHEZ !
i don't know about the consumer being the forgotten man. what about savers? they have been shit on the last 10 to 30 years.
what did they expect for being a saver in the US? if there is one thing this country has taught me, it's spend everything u have instantly and disgorge...barry will take care of the rest
Speculate with your house, your retirement, etc. It is funny and sad, they debase the currency so people put their money in 401ks. "Put your money here so you get a tax break!" ha. Isn't the government so wonderful to give its people a tax break on their retirements! This country is one big moral hazard.
"This country is one big moral hazard "
Spot on.Kinda like living in a tank of Phirana,s.
Pretty much the only investment I can think of at this point is to start a business that sells things to people on government assistance. I'd be wary of even playing a short ETF right now with a do-everything Fed and a financial press that can't seem to find their ass with their own two hands.
Capital idea!! But Walmart would be a tough competitor.
Ya mean, like Food Stamp wallets?
Depends on what they saved and where they saved it.
This presentation is just down right ugly. No matter how you sugar coat this, it's getting worse and it's accelerating. Which makes today's manic panic stock market buying all that more psychotic.
Let's see. Since April 26, 2010, the market high for the year, we've had 89 trading days. Of those 89 days, 14 were panic selling days (90% down day) and 13 were panic buying days (90% up day). That means 30% or nearly one third of all trading days since the high for the year were panic days of either direction when the 10 year average is less than 7%. Like a chicken walking around with its head cut off, this market has no idea what to do.
This way something comes.
indeed, he's terribly bearish and touches all points made on ZH for years. Listening to the cast. not sure if you can still sign in.
888.713.4199
passcode 16292396
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he's already talking about the funds available to investors... passed the econ outlooks.
+1000 Ψ
Those are the ways of bear markets. Down down down then manic up on the slightest positive.
This is no double dip out of 2008. We never emerged from the last recession, what -- with GDP measuring pissing into the wind with our $$ as if it is actually economic growth.
The real double dip started in 2007 -- phase I was actually the 2001-02 recession that got papered over by Greenspan. Economy on life support thanks to dipshit Sir Al created a vapor recovery that died the minute the easy $$$ and credit spiggot was turned down. Enter, then, the double dip as the fake credit bubble economy collapsed.
If anything, what we've seen over the last 14 mos was a dead cat bounce.
I swear your honor, that cat was breathing the last time I saw it! -- B. Bernanke
Yup it's been a 6 year ramp from a bottom. You have to give them credit, they stuck to it like glue.
Keep in mind folks this is NOT cyclical. If it were, then a few years would make the framing. Since it's not, the framing of the event is a decade or two.
20 years, before this is resolved.
20 years to clear the speculators out and bring back anything of value.
20 years or longer, the clock started in 2001. We're half way through if we're lucky.
Whats with the anti-speculator rhetoric?
All business is speculation, i.e. the speculation that someone will want to buy your product for more than you paid for it.
You just walked into a trap.
Because all business is not speculation, except recently. Business used to be about risk taking and value creation, and that was all. In fact, so long as you were creating something of actual value your risk was virtually nothing; you made money until the King took your stuff away. The risk was, volatilaty in politics and pirates and maybe weather and that was it. Acts of god.
Today, your risk is acts of Goldman-Sachs. And the Fed. You are creamed from the start. It's worse than dealing with the King, at least that guy could be killed.
It's not semantics, it's the difference, and no very many here are old enough to have actually seen the difference or recall how it used to work.
The multiple H.O.s recently are telling a similar story. Mass confusion coupled with paranoia. Feels like some sort of Mutual of Omaha nature thing with helicopters spooking a herd a running animals.
- brings back memories.
Mutual of Omaha's Wild Kingdom
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LnMd7tD7HhE
Marlon Perkins: "I'll wait here while Jim goes and wrestles with the rutting wildebeast".
St Louis Zoo's "Director Emeritus"...sounds like a sweet deal.
Mutual of Omaha staring Marlin Perkins, with Stan Brock (at 31 seconds) ...who is Stan Brock? A fucking hero. Not only did Stan wrestle wild animals while Perkins watched, but Brock donates his time to help the poor through is Remote Area Medical (RAM) volunteer corps. Brock used to bring free medical care to the moste remote areas "If we have to parachute in or run Piranha infested rivers in dugout canoes, we will attain our objective." but he now organizes many of these free medical clinics here in the US because there are so many people with out any medical insurance. Here is a link the 60 minutes episode on Brock http://vimeo.com/753559 here is the RAM website http://www.ramusa.org/about/stanbrock.htm Sad that an orgaization developed to bring basic medical care to the poor in remote parts of the world is now needed so much in the US.
I remember Stan wrestling a thirty foot 250lb Python, in the Amazon...the Python almost got the best of Stan!
"That means 30% or nearly one third of all trading days since the high for the year were panic days of either direction..."
Randall could make a lot of money if he could get on the right side of these swings.
'This way something comes'.
Well, after days like today I wonder what the heck is going on (worse than expected PMI in the UK, US mortgage applications down, etc., BUT ISM better than forecast so everything is OK), but as NOTHING underlying has changed I think you're spot on CD.
DavidC
Only massive, coordinated Central Bank binge-buying could move global markets in unison, like letting 10,000 kids pee in the pool at once. What rises will soon rot and smell, if not cause a preventable epidemic. FRB ZIRP = Typhus.
What's wrong with you people? Didn't any of you see Steve Liesman &Co. on CNBS this morning?
Thesis; If companies hire additional folks their stocks will go up.
Cause and Effect. Tit and Tat. What on God's Little Green Earth Could Be Fucking Clearer? There is no Double Dip.
All the Ice Cream Melted Long Ago
LOL
Did you see how Liesman was late this morning and he kept on blaming his wife (all he would say was "someone else" who was still sleeping) for messing up the alarm clock? Finally he capitulated and asked if the other people on the show thought he should take personal responsibility for being late?
I almost gaged on my coffee when he said that. What a 5 year old baby. "It's not my fault, the dog ate my homework."
Then he's talking about economics and job creation using simplistic thinking and simple analogies like you mention above. Priceless watching him sit in his dirty diaper for two hours.
The whole display t'was eerily Disturbing. Both the victimization routine and the demonstrably faulty assumptions within and logic applied to the economic analysis.
Extends far past Liesman to the host entity for condoning such irrelevance.
Dr. Freud on all the channels.
Anybody man up and load the boat with stocks today?
Just in case the PPT drives this thing into the elections?
AAII bulls at 20%, lowest since March 2009.
Virtually everyone and their brother calling for "Death Crosses", "Shampoo H & S Breakdowns", "Hindenburg Omens", yada, yada, yada.
Sentiment is terrible, feels like we should be at Dow 7,000, not 10,000.
Europe Top 100 looks to be the strongest:
Yes, I loaded up on longs today. I wanna hold for the long term into those expiring Bush tax cuts. Did you see the GDP 1.6% that's bullish. So what that stimulus is spent and the effects aren't lasting and we're not getting another one with the Repubs coming in. Let's go out and buy like mad men.
You are kidding right?
He's referring to the show on AMC.
Bought puts on expectation the burger king LBO blows up, does that count?
Whoops, that blew up in my face. Only lost 80% in one day. . .
A bear market will make anyone look like a fool sooner or later.
It made my puts (and me) look like fools last fall, and now I wonder if it will be a "fool me twice" this fall.
Added to my TZA position, it was a 10% off sale today!
Keep the stop tight on that MoFo. X3's are fun but wickedly dangerous.
Hey FEDbuster, carefull goes it. Watch out for that megaphone pattern. Has the GrandSlamBam SuperCycle ass clown been around lateley? He'll tell you all about the megaphone.
Robot,
When everyone expects the worst the opposite will happen... When everyone knows about the Hindenburg Omen, it loses its potency... especially if they are talking about it on CNBC with Michelle CC, in a low cut blouse breathing heavily about it... err, sorry I got lost there for a minute...
Except when the gig is finally up.
For example, all it takes for hyperinflation is for tomorrow everyone to wake up and suddenly realize the dollar is actually backed by shit. Overnight -- voooom. Read up on past hyperinflations. Ugly, and nothing do do wtih capacity or low employment.
Same can be said for the end of the game in general. The world was, after all, flat until it was round. Poof!
pretty sure it took a couple of generations for belief in a flat world to be replaced. It didnt just happen overnight.
The USD is backed by oil, military muscle and the productivity of the US worker. Sure its been devalued, but its the best horse in the glue factory.
I agree that hyperinflation can happen overnight (well nearly), but that takes a massive understanding of the problem. I dont think the US public is well educated enough to understand whats going on. The TBTF wont defect first, they know they have no chance in a free market, so all thats left to begin the stampede out of USD is China. But they have a lot to lose as well from a collapsed/hyperinflated USD.
ITs a balance of terror situation, where all the participants have more to lose by the game ending than they gain, thus the status quo is maintained. Until it isnt.
Succinct analysis, but 2 questions.
1) China is encouraging its citizens to save gold and fortifying its gold reserves with local ore (no impact on spot): hedge for $ denominated assets or a preemptive strike?
2) The Fed is the biggest bag-holder of US debt, not China. Could they be the first to go? After all, they took down Bretton-Woods for a reason.
Got out of my Apple calls from a few days ago and it some Apple puts... all a roll of the dice my friends...
I said on Thursday night to go long!
Check my post history if you don't believe me.
I was laughed at by all manners of bears at the time.
They seemed to think that the market was going to KA BOOM!
Realistic portrayal of unemployment for a change. GDP too.
More on Canada's Housing Bubble and Debt Levels
How are chinese solar stocks doing today ?
We never came out of the first dip! All we have done is replace inventories and cut employees and expenses to show more profits. The government has been living on a credit card and will continue to apply for more until they are bankrupt. If you compare the statistics to Dec 07 when the recession started to today you will understand. It would take me all day to point out how much deeper in the hole we are now during the summer of recovery then we were then. Here are just a few for starters, Unemployment 9.5% vs. 5.4%, Highest number of foreclosures on record, 15 TRILLION DEEPER in the hole,personal bankruptcies up 50%, Fed Balance sheet tripled, currency distribution doubled to 2 Trillion, record number of Americans on Government assistance, 47 States on the verge of fiscal collapse, Net worth of Americans down nearly 10 trillion, CRE ready to implode due to the highest number of vacancies, Auto sale breaking the 11 million SARS mark vs 16.5 million in 2007, stock market at 10,000 vs 14,000...bla,bla,fricken bla...The list is endless. So for all those who claim we ever got out of the first DEPRESSION, put that in your pipe and smoke it because the truth of the matter is we still haven't seen the worst of it yet! All we have done is create a mirage of a palm tree oasis, meanwhile when we finally reach it, there will be nothing but endless hot burning sand with no end in sight!
And in other bullish news:
Honda Motors sales tank 33% (!) Toyota -34% (!) Hyundai -11%, Ford -11%. You already know GM (as if it matters)
BMW only down 1.6%. That says it all.
Politburo must sandbag (I)PO before November
Weirdest thing I've seen in awhile: Ad for a $92k Benz (on sale of course!) in the local newspaper.
Not that I didn't know there is a $92k+ Benz out there, but that a Benz dealer would advertise it in a local newspaper.
Weird.
I'm wondering where the "failed auction a risk" part is coming from.
How could that possibly be allowed to happen? Is the press broken?
It can't happen. They just made it up. Bears tend to do that a lot.
OK, I'll play. Are you saying the auctions can't fail because bonds are such a good buy and that the dollar is indispensable? Or, is it because the Fed is a criminal endeavor which will cheat and steal to meet its needs?
Why bother with 0.5% double short gold in agressive portfolio?
What's the point?
Who cares if the double dip has supposedly arrived. The market was up 3 fucking percent today. Or didn't you notice?
That was a Quixotic performance today.
+1 Check the volatility going into 2008.
Avg houshold net worth is about 700,000, but I am thinking it is not a bell curve. The have-nots will knock that number down in in short order.
Confiscation, bitches...
Even though I've been bullish since Thursday, somebody was pointing out something very curious to me.
It appears that the indices can possibly making a descending triangle.
We've seen the market make lower highs while it has base support at 1040.
I'm not sure that it's the case (like I said, I was bullish Thursday night) but it is a very valid technical pattern that has some kinds of merit.
If we break 1080, I don't think the pattern is valid anymore though.
My simple explanation of the "double dip" that is really just one big continuing dip: People do not have the means, nor the desire if they do have the means, to buy anything that requires a bank loan. Debt Saturation, bitchez.
I know, I know, stocks are going to the moon again and that will solve everything. Riggghhht.
Yes, to illustrate...the US National Savings Rate went negative and was the leading indicator of the end of the credit boom. This is the bust.
Double dip? Looks like one big scoop to me...
You say recession and I say depression, oh let's call the whole decade off...
Do I hear two decades? Going once...
Score!
delicious two scoop depression. YUM!
I guess page 3 needs some reworking after todays mess.....
CNBS wants to use the word "Double Dip" because it's inappropriate to the situation and covers up one main fact: by definition and according to NBER, a recession ends only when GDP recovers its pre-recession peak. Which has not happened and won't. A "double dip" is actually two separate recessions with a recovery in between (like 1980-81 and 1982)
So what does it mean when the economy contracts after it fails to recover the pre-recession peak? It means we're in a Depression. AKA a crumbling economy that is suffering not just from the business cycle or inventories but rather from a combination of non-cyclical economic troubles that can only be "fixed" through major change and innovation at every level.
BINGO!
Actually, this is the double dip to the 2001-2002 recession. Sir Al Greenspan merely papered over the recession, creating severe distortions only capable of being produced by excessive credit and $$ creation. The seeds of this dip were sown back in 2002-2005... Once the O2 of easy $$ and credit had to be backed off, all the fake economy BS was the proverbial Wile Cayote finally looking down and seeing there'd not been any solid ground beneath it for a long, long time.
Yup. We should have fixed things back in 2002 while things were still manageable. Now we have mistakes compounding errors. From here on it gets harder to just change policy midstream. We're committed. The Fed will just get more and more hardheaded despite glaring evidence that their approach not only has failed but is toxic to the future health of the economy.
I can't help thinking it is all planned! They are being hardheaded, yes...but their plans haven't failed, they are working brilliantly. Then I flip-flop:
1) their either incredibly ignorant and/or incompetent.
2) they know exactly what the plan is and are executing it.
Although I think polling/voting is usually a waste of time, I am curious how most here view the current situation. All should reply 1 or 2 if you are so inclined. Many thanks, Fester.
Nothing to see here!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rSjK2Oqrgic
Look at page 14 (15 of pdf).
Those asshats have the double short gold ETF!
How's that working out for you?
It could be being used as a hedge against a long gold position..
OR, they could just be right and gold is about to drop.
I don't really know. Obviously, I think the gold market is a sham. But that's all I'm going to say about that today.
Really, a sham?!?! How noble of you.
You've been coming here for MONTHS spewing that gold is on it's way to 900 IMMINENTLY. Now, you tell us it's a sham, and "that's all I'm going to say about that"
Hang on to your wife's cheap 14K earings asshole, you're going to need them soon.
I didn't say imminently. You spelled earrings wrong.
Yeah, it is a sham.
Look at me, arguing with retarded people on the internet. My god.
I didn't say imminently. You spelled earrings wrong.
Yeah, it is a sham.
Look at me, arguing with retarded people on the internet. My god.
Have no fear. Zimbabwe Ben will buy your Treasuries and Stocks. Come on back the waters fine. Please deposit every forth UI check with Scottrade you ungrateful little wretches. Obimbo says we must attack this thing before November.
Yeah that is essentially all he has been attempting. He has been attempting to remove all risk from the markets ironically what is the riskiest market in market history. The Federal Reserve has become the most powerful entity in the world and it is falsifying the strength of the markets by borrowing against the future of America but the bet is contingent on American remaining a powerhouse economic body chock full of freedoms and manufacturing similar to post World War.
This is not the case any longer and we all on ZH see that since our economy is fictional. What is our comparative advantage aside from using our reserve status to bully? Or our consumer base to bully?
Ahhh..there in lies the answer and the variable they are all forgetting. So just remember this..America and it's ability to bully is based on three supposed givens.
1) Reserve Status
2) Most advanced military and shores that cannot be invaded backed by a seemingly pro-liberty government
3) The wealthy American consumer in relation to the rest of the world.
#3 is the key. We have wealthy (Mostly in debt) gadget hungry consumers that the rest of the world survives upon for income. Foreign economies it is true rely upon the consumers of our nation to purchase beyond their means and this purchasing is reliant upon or has been on credit. That ended. So now what is our value to other nations?
The shift is gradual but standing on our door step. Those days are gone. The credit is gone. The minimal credit that is remaining relies upon our Federal Reserve betting upon the return of the American but it is an absolute that that American cannot return because it was credit subsidized. We are seeing now that the jobs will not and cannot come back without a manufacturing base. So now we have considerably less jobs and massive debt which will stifle any economic growth.
Result: Foreign countries reliant upon the American consumer collapse, domestic companies reliant upon profiting utilizing foreign manufacturing collapses because the domestic consumer they sell to vanishes. The American companies downsize further impairing the consumer and those foreign nations use the educations we gave them to produce in their own nations and export to us cutting out the American imperial middle man.Then reserve status goes and foreign nations are at an advantage because they did not have falsified prosperity like America because of their relative youth regarding modernization.
From that moment on America becomes a cautionary tale and the United States rebuilds by returning to roots by manufacturing once again 50 years from now as all the cowardly elites will have left to avoid the populist fallout. In the interim they achieved their result of storing away capital using the debt they know we can never repay and their care not for the frightening landscape which will appear outside your door because they are gone.
The parasite then moves to other newly developing nations and uses their wealth to capture their politicians and rinse and repeat.
Don't think too many foreign companies are going to tie their wagon to the "Wealthy American consumer" anymore. Not with numbers like these: Honda August car sales down 33%, Toyota down 34%, Hyundai down 11%. It was the worst August in 27 years (!)
And then there's the looming question of the dollar: All countries are wary of importing inflation. Are they going to extend credit indefinitely? What are the risks considering the world is awash in dollars and dollar debt? These were questions that went unasked until this crisis. But now there are questions. My expectation is that creditor nations will get alot more cautious, demanding more assurances and more vig in return for their gamble. And that is pretty much check mate on the "wealthy American consumer"
Looks like Japan is strengthening their relations with China. The value of trade increased close to 35% in the first half of this year (yoy).
Yes sir, we have a winnah! China it is! The goal is to replace our pitiful consumer population with a MUCH larger demographic of buyers. They become the reserve currency... and perhaps, if we're lucky, lowly America will be able to build some items to export to mighty China.
As McCloy has said, the parasites are setting up shop across the pond NOW! Every major brand of buyout firm is establishing a foothold in China. The writing is on the wall, we are being replaced.
That rang true.
However I'm not sure the developing world can generate the same kind of internal consumer culture that has driven things so far. Americans have learned to be rabid consumers via 50+ years of corporate propaganda. Corporations have taught Americans to; eat out, travel, buy big for the Xmas holiday, have huge parties, buy huge cars every 5 years, demand large homes, outsource elder care, outsource all child care, work 60 hours a week, get a college education on credit. It's actually a really long list. They have started working their magic in some other parts of the world, but I don't think they can claim anything like 50+ years of success.
Just about the time the US consumer host ran out of blood, they still hadn't got the other hosts lined up to take our place. Oops, that was a mistake.
I think the consumer orgy is over. I think they blew it. I'm really glad, I hope the hegemonic transnational corporations burn up completely and take their propaganda machine with them to the dust bin of history.
If there will be a cautionary tale (meaning, anyone thinks enough about the past to write one) it might be that over consumption, carbon mining and resource depletion were the life and the death of the industrial revolution, and that a hedonistic binge on that scale will never again be possible in the history of life on earth. Our excesses over the last 50 years (and into the next 20, since we're on a roll here) have sealed the fate of ourselves and all others, it is only down from here, and there is a lot of down.
September surprise: Stocks soar - CNN5:18pm:
"September rally is in full swing after a report shows an unexpected rise in manufacturing activity. Dow jumps 254 points, Nasdaq, S&P 500 gain 3%. "
Non-carbon based life-forms made a good decision preventing the breach of key Fibonacci support level. An SPX > 1000, might spell big trouble. My 2-cents.
what specific data about the manafacturing report was really "unexpected"? When was the last time legitamite expectations or any true sense of reality able to accurately price the market?
"When was the last time legitimate expectations or any true sense of reality able to accurately price the market?"
I don't know. My mom thought things were going crazy in 1956 when the Dow hit 500!
http://www.epips.com/djia/1950-1960s-baby-boomers.html
More important...almost all of the gain came before the report. KD has http://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=165778
One day into September and we already have establish a September rally?
WTF kind of logic is that?
Of course it might turn out that way. We have BB on the record saying QE2 to the moon. That's going to be hot for markets, which like it or not are now running on nothing but pure monetary intervention.
During the September rally we might lose another 500K jobs and have another 300K walk off the end of the 99 week sidewalk, but that don't mean jack. Greenspan taught us to look to the stock exchanges for news about the economy, and that particular number they can manage.
One day of silly buying does not a rally make. All we do is go back and forth from Dow 10400 to Dow 9990.
Did you read the comments below article. Looks like some could be from zerohedge.
You guys should check out Glenn Beck tonight he is doing the best episode on bringing the value of gold and our economic situation I have seen him do yet. I know most do not like him but he is valuable for his audience core and tonight seems like a nice education on econ 101 for the masses.
OK, as long as it doesn't conflict with Olbermann and Maddow.
Just the fact that he calls people "the masses" and has spent the last five days talking about why his stupid rally is "god's work" is enough for me to not like him.
Then there's the fact that he cries like a bitch all the time.
Then there's the fact that he draws goofy bullshit on a chalkboard all the time.
There's the fact that he puts graphs up of the Federal budget that label defense spending as "mandatory spending" while things like education and health care are "discretionary."
There's the fact that he puts pictures up of Obama net to pictures of Hitler, Stalin, and Mao.
I could go on and on and on about why Glenn Beck is a douche.
Why would I want somebody that knows nothing about economics (he barely graduated from high school) to teach me economics?
So I'll know the same "facts" he learned in Dick Morris' new book?
You're right. He's a douche. No doubt about it. Never trust anyone who can't responsibly abuse substances without going nuts and then is forced to go to jail or go "sober" and never shuts up about it.
Do you think he still take Rytalin before everyshow? Maybe a hand full? Isn't he one of those ADDHD-LMNOP kids?
Dont tell any of this to CNBC, tuned in to watch Cramer do a victory lap after todays rally and instead they're doing some cringeworthy special report called RALLY ON THE STREET.
Cramer is on a gurney with heart palpitations.
Yeah they should get accustomed to these seldom days. Markets rally on Ben unleashing the full force of the 33 Liberty trading desk.
It's called stochastics.
Sigh, why do I even bother?
Oh, yeah. It's the "magical elves of Narnia" gunning the markets.
There. Now I fit in better...
anyone who watches glenn beck doesn't have any money to buy gold with, it already went towards an F350, 3 smokers, an RV, and some shitty overpriced house in the burbs thats underwater
Fixed it fer ya.
lol
Wow Rocky, something I agree with you about.
You aren't all bad. Nice job.
Russians found 1600 Tons of Gold today !
http://www.voanews.com/english/news/europe/Russian-Mini-Sub-Finds-Possible-Czarist-Gold-101897773.html
Old Czarist gold lost nearly a century ago during the country's civil war
Found deep in a lake !
Thats alotta Gold their Ruskies !
In hard times gold is money. Proof positive.
Lucky for them to have a long and storied history whereby they can "find" gold at the bottom of a lake and add to their official holdings. All we have is Joseph Smith Jr's golden plates -- and those were only 60lbs or so.
Guess you didn't see "National Treasure" (I just KNOW that ElDorado will be found someday!)
the author should have made the net worth comparison in gold instead of usd. inverts his graph.
When to sell gold? Doug Casey advises:
There is no fundamental value to any of the markets anymore.
P/E's and other ratios are all bullshit.
Markets are completely and totally technically driven, for every asset.
I'm not even going to say anything about gold. Merry Christmas. :)
Your magnanimity is mind-numbing.
Buzzkill bitchez!
DUDE, you are completely killing the buzz of CNBC's special "Rally in the Streets" airing right now.
You know you're in a total proganada job when they have an actual full hour special on a 2.5 percent DOW gain.
This is fuckin' nuts.
To be fair, they have the same specials when the market takes a whoopin.
Step right up and throw the darts. $1.00 for one, $3.00 for 2 and $5.00 for 4. Step right up. Everybody can win! Psssssttt.... I forgot to tell you that there were no prizes behind the balloons, but that's OK, you can't see that. I'll take your money, you take a chance and before you know it, I'll take all of your money.
Pretty much sums up my take on the market.
A week ago? That was before the blowout ISM numbers today.
Exhibit A as to why mutual funds won't exist in 10 years: Guy makes a mediocre case for the arrival of a double dip (other reasons are far more convincing that we are at the edge of a cliff) but then look at his allocations... its bizarre.. things are going to get bad but stay in equities ???
Allocations? He's got DB Double Short Gold on! Ouch!
CEOs that lay off workers earn more: Study
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/ceos-that-lay-off-workers-earn-more-stu...
Is that surprising anymore ?!?
In good times, it's the opposite
I see. Never bothered about CEO pay during good times :-)
To the unemployed: If you're gonna go Postal sometime in the future, be sure to take out the right people!
Man Crashes Plane Into Texas I.R.S. Office ?
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/02/19/us/19crash.html