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TCW On Greece: "Let It Burn"
TCW, which incidentally is facing some pretty serious problems of its own lately, chimes in on Greece. Komal Sri-Kumar, Chief Global Strategist, is painfully realistic in believing that Europe should be much more worried about keeping the strength of the eurozone intact, and if that means jettisoning Greece, and devastating the euro, so be it. In fact, for an export-heavy Germany, this is precisely, as Zero Hedge has long been claiming, the end goal.
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"Let it burn" - the solution to sooo many things!
Washington DC and the Fed banks?
A quote from Starship Troopers comes to mind:
"Shoot a nuke down a bug hole, you got a lotta dead bugs."
I'm all for it.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TpPSEzk6jOY
Phuck Greece. And California.
Live by the phucking labor entitlement sword DIE BY IT TOO!!!!!!!
labor entitlement is not what is causing the problem.
They system is broken, and unless magical ben prints, everyone starting from the weakest link, on, (until and beyond strong links are the weakest link) the system is going to crush it.
It wasn't labor entitlement.
Only difference IN THIS SYSTEM, between California and Greece to the most low tax, low entitlement, low public spending, sweatshop areas being in the same boat?
Time. (and it wasn't one that caused the other)
There is no class feeling more entitled than the super-rich. What universe have you been living in?
The guy wrote about labour, sweat shop etc
No issue with the super rich working etc but associating them with working in sweat shop, it is a big too much no?
The odds that the fed will end up owning Greek bonds exponentially increases with the amount owned by GS or insured by AIG (etc.). As for bailing out Greece proper I really don't care what the EU does.
Well said.
Moral hazard? I'd rather bail out Greece, Spain, Portugal (states in general) than the banks and their sociopaths' of employees.
Seems to me you're choosing between two groups of sociopaths. I think the choice leans hard the other way.
Governments that spend more than they take in are the main culprits--the spending and power junkies--here. The political systems that give governments the power to buy votes with promises to give out goodies with money they don't have are the junkies. The voters, the unions, the companies and the banks that elect politicians depending on the amount of goodies the politicians promise them are the junkies.
The banks just make money off the addiction. As long as there are junkies, there will always be dealers.
Until Western Democracies solve this fundamental problem by reclaiming the notion of genuinely limited government that is genuinely limited in its ability to tax and dispense goodies, we are doomed to move inexorably to a more authoritarian form of government. We will go broke as long as we remain two wolves and a sheep voting on what to have for dinner.
Ultimately, you pose a false dilemma. We don't have to bail out either the banks or Greece. We have to be prepared for the consequences. But those consequences are coming at some point. Might as well get them over now.
BRAVO!!!!!
HEAR-HEAR ANONY!!!
Well said! --Boris
We are not were we are because of the governments' actions. Rather, governments were too passive for too long and let the psycho bankers have their way. The latter had the knowledge of their products an knew about the issues, they just abused the trust placed in them.
The result of this being that over the last 20 years this sociopath attitude, which originated in finance, has infested other businesses and government as well.
One major difference is that Western governments are still accountable to their people and can be voted out. They are are also bound by human rights, whereas the private sector claims that he is not.
So this is not a false choice.
The consequences you speak about are inherent to the way capitalism works. It needs growth to thrive. Growth comes from ever more consumers, and ever more consumers means ever more people on this globe. This is not sustainable and for this reason alone, Capitalism is doomed to fail.
That's all good I'm sure. it really is. Whats more I really know where you're coming from...but...if they force you to go to war and whilst patching you up you become addicted to morphine, well, its not really that you are an addict so much as the people who knew full well that you would, as likely as not, become an addict - and whats more owned a majority stake in the opium industry while giving you the drugs - then its not so much that they are dealers BECAUSE you are addict. Its more like they are a monopolist doing they're best to increase they're customer base. No?
Sorry, gentlemen, I do not understand this. Why do Americans always think the euro zone would break up and Greece would have to leave the Euro? Greece may well default, say, with a recovery ratio of 50% for the international bond holders and remain in the Euro area. Why not?
Did California last year have to introduce their own currency and leave the dollar area? Why would they?
The more the plans fail, the more the planners plan. Venus's tit has run dry. Good bye Greece.
Trichet goes to bed with a smile on his face every night. Weaker Euro? That's what Europe has been praying for.
Greece is Europe's Iran. A very, very convenient bogey man...with an economy in the same proportion to to Europe's as Utah to the United States.
Not "Let it burn". Much too quick. "Let it smoulder" Just like Iran.
subtle and intriguing. if only the lemonade made from an unexpected lemon.
A powerful force certainly. A strength if used wisely and with moderation and clear vision. It remains to be seen which suffers more: the US with its ability to deny reality, or a Eurozone forced to confront it, fail painfully, and start again.
I see the Euro going down either way, ie Greek bailout or no Greek bailout.
All of this talk is just conjecture and bs.
I see the US (that'd be the government, not us slaves) salivating over a crashing Euro and Pound.
They'll do QE2 on the back of it and stealthily destroy our savings and earning power to continue doling out the swag from Washington. Then they'll point to the DXY at 73 (where with a valued Euro and Pound it'd be at 42, LOL) and say "Hey, it's been worse! We'll get past this you doomsayers".
From: WJS - Hedge Funds Try 'Career Trade' Against Euro*
Who else is going to make a career trade on the Euro if Greece "burns"?
* http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142405274870379500457508774184807439...
i always believe in trades that are made public. sort of along the lines of, how easy it will be for the rich to enter the kingdom of heaven.
So, it's easier for a camel to go through the eye of a needle than for a man to make money on a publicly disclosed trade?
Yes. I believe that's in Lloyd, chapter 6, verse 5.
You mean it's easier to enter heaven if the trades are not disclosed...
When the WSJ, the paper that almost EVERYONE reads is saying that the Euro is a career trade doesn't it seem a little too good to be true? Paulsen's CDS trade was a career trade because no one expected it to be. By the time the popular press picks up a story it's usually over (see business week on the tech boom and a thousand other examples). Granted, it may be different this time but it seems a little too easy.
I dont think Paulson was the only one who expected it, but he was the one who traded on it most successfully. And now, with all the manipulations and rigging going on, it is too risky to get behind any huge bets.
From the post in Handelsblatt, it is pretty obvious that Merkel says: "First homework, then candy":
"Die Regierung in Athen müsse ihr Sparprogramm umsetzen, dann könne das Vertrauen an den Märkten zurückkommen. Die Wende soll eine Rosskur aus Einsparungen und Reformen bringen, gegen die es aber Widerstände in der Bevölkerung gibt. Griechenland müsse seine Hausaufgaben machen, sagte Merkel. „Andere Entscheidungen sind absolut nicht getroffen“, betonte sie."
"Other decisions will absolutely not be taken". Of course the Germans will have some form of contingency plan, but that seems not to be their main alternative.
The roof, the roof, the roof is on fire, burn Mxxxxxxer, burn! Familiar words, pity they come from TCW...
So guess, who is burning next, with similar Deficit/GDP ratios
Deficit as a % of GDP
Iceland 15.7 - already burnt
Greece 12.7 - burning
Britain 12.6 - being lit up
Ireland 12.2 - xxxx?
United States 11.2 ------?
Spain 9.6
France 8.2
Japan 7.4
Portugal 6.7
Canada 4.8
Australia 4
Germany 3.2
* Figures from OCED forecast in November 2009.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/financialcrisis/7269629...
Wild speculation follows:
When the history of this crash is written by scholars far enough in the future that their views aren't colored by current exposure to news, Iceland will be shown to be the noise that started the sovereign avalance. It is Iceland that has killed British banks. And when British bank zombification ends, the U.S. Treasury market starts to bleed out, and that is the end of Western banking hegemony.
This is IMO significant evidence of the Western banking cartel trying to hang on to its hegemony over the global economic system:
http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2010/03/england-to-sell-3-year-...
US and BG banks are joined at the hip. London and NYC are joined at the hip. The LBMA and CRIMEX are joined at the hip.
And California is only at 2% of state GDP. So Leo what is the problem
Greece is peanuts compared to what is going on in California, New York and New Jersey. Even here is Canada, the province of Quebec is among most highly indebted industrial economies in the world (HT: Al):
An analysis by the Quebec Ministry of Finance suggests the province has one of the most heavily indebted economies in the industrialized world.
The 44-page document calculates the province's total debt as 94 per cent of GDP, employing methods used by the Organization of Economic Co-operation and Development.
The government report, available on the ministry's website, compares the total provincial public debt to that of other Canadian provinces and to major industrialized nations.
Quebec ranks only below Japan, Italy, Greece and Iceland in terms of public debt as a percentage of GDP.
The report calculates public debt across Canada as 69.7 per cent of the country's GDP.
The report puts Quebec's total public debt at $285.6-billion.
Re: US States, don't forgot about Illinois and Arizona. Illinois is on the brink, immediately behind California.
Every province in Canada is sucking Alberta's tit.....and therefore Quebec will remain just fine
I went to Quebec once, I got pulled over by a DOT (or whatever their version of a transportation official is) guy and was given roughly a $255 ticket because I was a "fernor" and hadn't scribbled two lines in a logbook. Everyone there can speak English but they all pretend they can't. You think the colossal d#*kheads are rethinking that whole secession thing now??? I know if I was in any other province to Quebec I would wish the cultural snob xenophobe pricks had gone ahead and left
This will change as the Quebec elitist population dies off.
T'est une trou d'cul.
How do you feel about people speaking spanish here ?. Quebec is French first. Speak it or stay the fuck out. Sound familiar ??
You are surprised that laws are enforced somewhere ?. Then stay the fuck in the US where laws are enforced only if you are poor, black or in a Latino gang.
Do something meaningful with your truck and drive an amfo bomb to 85 Broad..
Nikki... Je suis un homme libre..
.... Revolution calling you ....
Well played.
...Who do you trust when everyone's a crook?...
Gonna have to figure out how a truck driver that keeps phony record logs knows the word xenophobe.
A band from Seattle, kids in their late 20's, foretold much of what we now know to be true.. Every institution, infected and corrupt.
Nice one. After a long time over the Internet, a genuine question is still hanging. US citizens like to introduce themselves as universalists when by all their actions, they depict themselves as the deepest tribalists ever (tribalism not being accurate in their case)
Moaning on people spaking French in Quebec and requiring foreigners to do so while destroying Latinos for speaking Spanish in the US...
How can they manage to sustain the two attitudes? Save by pouring wealth taken from others on themselves...
I've never been in Greece, but I have been in Cyprus a bunch of times, where the people are extremely proud to be ethnic Greek. I've been asking the Cypriots if they would like to unify their country with Greece and the response has always been a resounding "NO". Their opinion is that Greece is a backward socialist haven, and I have to agree. If they default on their debt, it could be the wake-up call they need to snap out of it.
The U.S. should be so lucky. We have so many ways that we can postpone the crisis, by the time the s#@$ hits the fan we will plunge the whole globe into a crisis.
A Kabuki Dance to the finish. A classic Mexican Standoff. Who blinks first?
imprudence deserves failure
Hi CB, your avatar icon is killing me! I have been trying to figure out what it is for weeks. What is it? Strangely subliminally unnerving ha!
Hey Landrew. To be quite sure, I am not sure because I didn't save the source of the photo back in the fall when I signed up on ZH.
A half human, half ram taking a cold shower...
It's "Darkness" from the movie Legend after he's had his horns cut off and spent 2 years in a FEMA camp.
He's standing behind a frosted glass door taking an ice-water shower as he ponders and finally learns to accept that his prior pretensions of relevance and meaning are but so many fragile, illusory constructs which crumble like sandcastles in the face of the universe's utter indifference to his plight.
His suffering is far from over....
The real tsunami is the bulk is commercial properties that can not be refinanced because their current value is much less than the loan valve- This will be starting October and will continue till 2012. A picture is worth a million words, now visualize $2.3 trillion > 2,300,000,000,000. ...
Now visualize this: we owe 12 trillion as of right now + an additional 60 trillion for social security/ medicare is unfunded.
State Pensions are already 1 trillion in debt (from 2008 data!)- much worse now.
Don't count on anything from the Government the whole thing was a ponzi scheme. The Ponzi will collapse without 4 years of fresh cash with no payouts...that is what the real reason the "healthcare", plan is laid out this way- just to keep the scheme financed a little longer...pitiful.
www.calculatedriskblog.com
Greek Deputy Prime Minister Theodoros Pangalos has accused Germany of failing to compensate Greece for Nazi occupation during World War II (see BBC clip below). I think this is a red herring that serves no purpose whatsoever. While there is some truth to what Pangalos said, the fact remains that successive Greek governments took in billions of euros and never built up Greece's industrial base or help the service economy diversify away from tourism and shipping. They were all very corrupt, very stupid and now the real estate market is starting to weaken. A buddy of mine in Athens (very pessimistic) thinks Greece should default because at least then they can negotiate on their debt. Of course, if this happens, overnight euros will become drachmas, which is a scary thought for many as they will be instantly impoverished. I doubt this will happen. the stakes are too high to "let Greece burn".
they should lease naming rights for their various attractions and islands - e.g. Mykonos could be renamed Soros, the Parthenon renamed CITI Center, the Acropolis renamed Sigma X etc.
Lehman part deux.
My Greek wife is funny. Her comment, which sums up what she thinks is everybody's opinon of Greek business is.... "Think about it. Who in their right mind would ever go to a Greek banker? Greeks like to drink coffee and play tavli. We still think it is 3000 years ago, and everybody ought to just recognize all we did for the world, and pay us to sit around and think some more."
GoldSilverDoc--pls tell your wife that i agree!!!
Goldman Sachs should be SUED by Greece and the world for what should have been considered CRIMINAL acts in helping them hide their debt!!
They dont call this firm GOVERNMENT SACHS for nothing. They own our government or they ARE our govt, so Europe--it's all on you! We are helpless against this slimy squid, who has it's tentacles in every sector of our economy and political structure. You will have to lead the charge to prosecute this firm!
Goldman Sachs should be forced to use ALL of their ill-gotten gains to bailout the world from the disaster THEY have created!!
If my memory serves correctly, there were, at the time of introducing the common Euro currency, statements that needed economic reforms were politically not feasible. Economic pain was supposed to push the needed reforms through.
It looks like now is the time to prove that concept.
when a nation's competitiveness is dependent upon a cheapened or debased currency it is a sign that the economic model is fucked....
trade should only be a byproduct of domestic efficiencies rather than a primary goal....these loser countries need to develop domestic markets instead of creating warped currency mercantilist boondoggles and that applies to the usa and germany in spades....there is no inherent merit in trade....and you can take gatt and every other free trade quackery and shove it up your butt....
i am not quite an autarkist but there is much to be said for developing domestic markets...otherwise the need to debase indicates excess capacity and misallocated capital....
there are so many areas of science, medicine, technology to develop and which have suffered because of butthole ideas of sustaining putrid levels of production so that someone can export and take jobs from someone else's country that these central planners should be tried for crimes against humanity....
Eh, it's all Greek to me ;-)
(Surprised no one else on ZH has said this yet)
Seriously, someone has to bail them out or it will be Lehmann time for th Euro as the Euro, like the USD is based on FAITH and backed by very little of actual substance. Just wait until Calif and quite a few other States drop the financial bomb.
Got gold?
(Greece crying about the Germans taking theirs says a lot about why one should have physical gold holdings.)
Greece can be bailed out, but what about the countries qued up behind Greece?
Eastern Europe is also in horrible shape.
Prof Black,who is consulting Hungary and is one of the few academics I trust, stated last summer that every single home in Hungary is in
default and that Hungary will default on its debt.Haven't heard about Eastern Europe for
a while.The magnitude of the world insolvency
is stunning, but for some reason, we get focused on one little country..
"Got Gold?"
Yep, lots of PM, own physical. If I didn't
own physical, I don't believe I would be able to sleep at night
Long Au
Long Ag
Long complex CH4 chains
Long CREE (for now)
Short Solars, greatest wealth destroying technology ever created...
CREE? These guys?:
http://www.amazon.com/LED-60-Watt-Incandescent-Replacement/dp/B0021INMXQ
Yep, those guys.
http://www.cree.com/
http://money.cnn.com/quote/quote.html?symb=CREE
Look at the 1 year performance..
I installed CREE led lighting in the kitchen
a year and 4 months ago and have been hooked
ever since
CREE recently broke 200 watts/Lumen and,
IMHO, have excellent R&D
LED lighting is the future, very low power consumption and EXTREMELY long life, 20k to
50k hours.
Look for entire parking lots to be LED lighted,triggered on motion sensors
Disclosure: Long CREE
Have a Fenix TK12 with CREE's R2 LED on all of my tactical carbines and shotguns.
Absolutely fantastic light. 240 blinding lumens, bulletproof construction, and under $100.
Can't say enough about it.
http://www.4sevens.com/product_info.php?cPath=22_85&products_id=650
Yeah but the thing is, every time there is a "problem", the [un]safe haven dollar goes up even with problems in ca and ny. But I think gold is decoupling from all that
Sure, let Greece go. Lehman wasn't enough.
so you want to them to repay their visa bill with their mastercard??
Only 8% of Americans own a passport.
How many of you have actually been to Europe at all ?
Ignorant crowd !
All you know, is the glibberish your mainstream soap TV provides.
Blow me. I've been to over 40 countries and I don't understand what you are trying to say.
but you've got to like "glibberish". that is the native language of the village and it is what the elites speak to us.
Well, we need to apply some Game Theory here, as the Greeks have just set up an enormous game of Chicken. Where is the Nash equilibrium in this situation? It seems pretty clear to me that a default is a "lose-lose".
The "win-win" is where the Greeks agree to IMF-monitored austerity and "truth and reconciliation" in exchange for a bailout that will limit the contagion. Having seen the precedent, Spain and Portugal would presumably have a model on which to go forward.
After all the noise, this is where we will end up. Of course, the theater is highly amusing.
I disagree! The win is default and currency devaluation. The last country to devalue is the loser and by default (pun intended) that would be the U.S. as the biggest loser being currency/bankers of last resort! In the end game, you have to ask who will be the savior of the system and the Fed has pretended to be that savior since 1937 when the rest of the world burned.
something in what you say. and, yet one more time, the irony, the irony: j. m. keynes wrote some eighty years ago that nation states, in order to ameliorate deflationary depressions, should reduce debt/build surpluses in times of plenty so as to increase debt/reduce surpluses in times of famine. our economic masters are so wonderful that they have increased debt/reduced surpluses in times of plenty to such a degree that the private markets, and possibly some of the voters, will force them to reduce debt/increase surpluses in a time of famine. in the u.s. the primary perps were "conservative" republicans. mr. keynes is rotflhao.
Keynes was out of his mind when he unfolded his theory.
He clearly marked one of the most envied classes in the world as the one having interests contrary to all the others and for the benefit of all these others, the marked class should be eliminated.
Unsurprisingly, this class has trying to survive by growing as much as possible.
This class was the rentier class. The reaction was simple: everyone on Earth want to be a rentier. Lets offer everyone to become one. As a consequence, all the rentier plans developped over the last decades and many, many people thinking of themselves as rentiers. So much that these nouveau rentiers are now forcing everywhere for a labour class to be so they can enjoy their rentier status.
Greeks will go the way of Argentina...
Greece is just the front line flashing point in the battle between US and Europe. Both are in deep financial trouble. Both are trying desperately to shore up its currency amid quantitative easing. Any decline in the perceived strength of the euro would enable the Fed to print some more safely.
If the Greek saga does not end the euro as a competitor to the dollar, look for the Wall Street dominated financial media to whip up more soverign debt crisis in Europe. Long standing alliance between US and Europe since beginning of the Cold War may be coming to an end.
Both are huge consumption sinks.
Now that a part of the world, the poorest part, has been squeezed as much as possible and wont yield enough to support glutounous habits, the other only way out is to ensure that the other gluttons on the scene disappear.
If the EU breaks apart, this will free a lot of room in terms of consumption pressure.
" Germany, who has an incipient fiscal problem.." the author writes.
I thought Germany was basically sound fiscally. Whaqt am I missing?
A further Euro collapse will simply make European and Mediterranean call girls even more affordable and desireable to the following:
1. U.S. Prop Desk Traders
2. Russian Oligarchs
3. Beverly Hills plastic surgeons
4. New York politicians
5. Bank of Japan and Ministry of Finance plutocrats
6. Any and all assorted international playboys located outside the Eurozone.
LOL...
"Throw Greece out?? Yeah, I'm up for that!!!"
With compliments as usual Robo! :) But not so fast, it would be too easy, and you know it doesn't work like that... Regards
Seems someone bought a large amount of gold...in doelarrs, yen, or euros? I believe the transaction was completed using currencie from one of these three currencies for two reasons; I am assuming that it would take one of these currencies to move the markets that significantly and that the quantity of purchase was large enough to move the currencie markets. Considering that the euro rose, the yen rose, and the doelarr declined, i would say it had to be done in doelarrs. On friday, someone holding doelars put their money where their mouth is. Gold.....
WTF is a doelerr?
Long story, but in brief, the symbology of the world currencies shows many references to occultism (obviously), the SUN being one, also note snakes (as in crossing the currencie). Obviously you know the terms doe (adult female) and lire (unit of wieght/lira sometimes in a double-crossed script form). So note Columbia, and the double crossing of the "weight". Also note the REAL. The SUN (solar) illuminates the REAL by rey of light, the doelarr mimics this ilumination. The power of the sun is the power over all things living.
From Websters: solar 3 a : produced or operated by the action of the sun's light or heat <solar ENERGY> b : utilizing the sun's rays especially to produce heat or electricity <a solar HOUSE>; also : of or relating to such utilization <solar DESIGN>
(above capitalization for dramatic purposes)
Annuit Conceptus; Novus Ordo Seclorum.
Sun. I'm disappoint.
Ahh. Gratzi. So, it's like Bohemian Grove shit, or something like that? In other words, some wicked symbology that these heathen babylonians shove right in our faces on a daily basis.
Good stuff Robo. As usual, a fine post.
you american commentators ... always good in explaining other why a failure is the best solution (which might be right) but not capable of putting this procedure in action in your own country (bailout nation welcomes you)
Na, our problem is we have to see flames coming out of the building before applying
water,just seeing smoke doesn't get our attention......and it obviously should
It is hard to see the trees through the smoke. Good cover for Morgan's Market Manipulators to do their thievery.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/7332415/Germany-and-France-agree-to-rescue-Greece-with-conditions.html
well they sure do not want to buy US treasuries.
Sun Feb 28, 3:58 pm ET
ATHENS (AFP) – Chancellor Angela Merkel Sunday dismissed talk of a German rescue plan for Greece's ailing economy, as Athens braced for an EU audit that could usher in new austerity cuts to tackle its massive debt crisis.
This is a test....
http://www.finviz.com/futures.ashx
A test of what please? Some of us are smart but can't read minds.
Very useful Robo. Thanks. Hmm.. Commodities up, currencies down. Check. Global recovery is cooking with gas this morning I see.
35Pete, funniest comment I have seen in a long, long time. I have been laughing for 20 minute now. Thank you.
CCCP
*curtsey*
There are about a dozen or two posters here that have me in tears daily. Yeah the news suck, but these folks make it palatable. You have to be jocular about this stuff. The BS piles up so fast and so deep that a man would lose it if he couldn't spin some gallows humor into it.
Learned that from my days in the 80's working in a trauma center. If you don't laugh, you snap.
Alexandra sent me this interesting video:
http://www.newsy.com/videos/greek-debt-threatens-global-economy/
I thank her and wanted to share it here.
Only 3% of all homes in hungary have a mortgage. So how can every home in hungary be in default? There is only a very small mortgage market in most of central europe.
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