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Technical Analysis of S&P 500 futures
Attached is the Pivotfarm PowerZones data sheet for July 29th, we combine over 10 different Support and Resistance methods to create our Confluence PowerZones. They are the key data in the sheets, all other data is FYI and to help you adapt to the trading environment.
The pdf document for today's zones can be found here
Need more info? Check out the PowerZone Video and the PowerZone Tutorial
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I trade a lot, and the information people present helps my analysis. I make my own charts and the information presnted helps
I shall add to the clutter. do what you like it is the s and p long and shorter term
docd has sent you a Stock Chart from FreeStockCharts.com. Click below to view it.
http://www.freestockcharts.com?emailChartID=1f0d2341-e797-41cc-a213-69ec204ae9ce
it has been very good to me lately
thanks for the link, very interesting. Have a good weekend
Twotraps...you will find this amazing: take any security you want, calculate a 35 day 'rate of change' and really look at the 'risk dimensions' of the 5 days closest to 'zero barrier'...meaning, if you are LONG when positive and SHORT when negative, those last 5 days KILL your return. Here is another hint: really watch the 13 day exponential moving average....that is the 'fast signal' against the 'slow signal' of the 35 day ROC.....it is amazing. Those very specific days are NOT 'normally distributed'....the challenge is in the dark room is to not LOSE YOUR BALANCE....meaning 'over trade'....it is so easy to be wrong and so hard to be right........I found that I had to FORCE myself to buy LOWER and sell HIGHER...I can go back thru every day and give you some very specific perspective on the market simply based on the level of spot with respect to the level that reverses the system output. I have the utmost respect for the market and I only have my own money....those two pieces of data should help.......good luck,
twotraps....not sure if you were responding to me, but......I know that every day, I know nothing ( I have been in the financial markets for 27 years)......for the first 14 years of my career, I worked for a large investment bank. We absolutely 'saw' the best part of the tape: the market moving clients of every sector: central banks, insurance compaines, long an short date corporate activity, CTA's, hedge funds, private clients...everyone that mattered. So, the key to being 'right' was not being 'wrong'......that always left you short in a down market and long in an up market.....you always 'saw' the turn......now that everything is electronic, you have absolutely no idea which WAY, how FAR, how LONG or how VOLATILE. So, I know that MOMENTUM is the key variable in most systems DNA and that everyone is trying to harness that momentum. I know that there are certain days that systems absolutely BUY and certain days that they willl SELL.....what I found after looking at years of data...is the markets accelerate their move into the signal....after trading for many years, that was something that I always had a hard time with......in daily O-H-L-C world, the rate of change of spot.....and now, it really matters what time of day you are talking about....so many highs and lows happen very close to 'time slice' points......in the 'dark room' that I live in now, with no access to 'private or better information' I have to constantly prepare myself for volatility...I can tell you that there are certain days that have distinct probabilities....not the 180 degrees of a 'normal distribuition'.....this market has never been more contrived......more 'less normal'.....good luck
bobcat, I totally agree with you. Been in it for a while and its changed quite a bit. Don't want to cry about it and make excuses...there are some good things, trading from home for very cheap was not possible before, access to info is decent but you have to assume you're late and watch who you try to compete with on an intra-day basis. After seeing the pdf file with levels etc, and reading your reply I was just adding the notion of time frame for perspective. I learned the Market Profile early on and just kept it as a filter to assess price action.....so I guess its technical in that its Not fundamental analysis, but its not a system. The system or format or whatever anyone has, tells you when to buy and how much, and when to sell and how much. That might be agreeing or competing with whatever I or anyone else 'feels' about a certain level, market profile, candle or wave. Watching levels is great, I used to write technical reports for commodity markets and we had grids of levels all over the place...great for research but not necessarily great for trading. I'm not critical of his report or your use of projected ranges...i do it myself with my own formula......I just really really agree with you that every day I realize that 'I know nothing'.
Pivotfarm....I like the idea of having a 'forward looking histogram' of potential daily prices. I use a volatility based 'daily range' that puts price action into perspective. I use Average Tru Range...there are different calcultaions, but, it is much better than day-on-day close volatility....for instance, this morning's calculation for 60 day ATR was 2.19%, so based on last night's close of 1106.13, today's 1 STD range would be 1130.36 (+2.19%) - 1081.90 (-2.19%). Of course, that is the range that you expect 65% of the time. You also never know when volatility is expanding or contracting...I use a 10 day average of ATR, that calculation this morning was 1115.93 - 1096.33..which was 40.35% (10 day average of ATR) of 48.45 SPX points (+/- 2.19%). My point is that every single day there are reasons to sell in the LOWER portion of the range and buy in the HIGHER portion. I try and make sure that I am absolutely sure exactly where in the daily range I am looking to trade. I use this in conjunction with a Rate of Change system that identifies when "medium term trend followers" have a good chance of entering the market. As it turns out, today, on a close ABOVE 1106.40, the SPX gives a BUY signal reversing the SELL signal of May 5th ( the day before the 'Flash Crash'). I think that you type of work is useful, but, I like using volatility instead of some of the other inputs. Best of luck with your new business. The key to any analysis is to be able to use it and have it make a difference. As is always spoken about, 70% of equity flow is algorithmic...therefore, each unit of volume is responding to some combination of data.......volume over time is the basic equation.......good luck,
Your idea is good, what about streamlining it and running it over several time frames. You'll come up with several key levels on each time frame, assemble the levels into a grid....shorter term closer to the current close etc...and working your way out. If technical analysis is 'self similar' then having a cheat sheet of the next several time frames will come in handy the day the mkts are off 40 handles and everyone is scrambling for some perspective!
comment reposted below.
I appreciate the efforts of ZH. Not being one of those who diddle with Ponzi schemes I'll pass on market trading advice. Not that I know all I need to know, but this information is not pertinent to my approach to preserving my capital. Thanks just the same.
How come the work "Ponzi" is not recognized by the spell checker?
Looks like the sellers will have it to the close as bounce has run out of volume. Also, big positive divergences for USD down here.
DOW daily chart posted at blog, showing two megaphone wedges . . .
http://stockmarket618.wordpress.com
Nothing to see here...
This site is becoming more like the MarketOracle where people post plugs for their services. I don't doubt the analysis, but I don;t read anything advertising a service either. Squid.
look out below
I am using the FXY as my compass....When I saw the stronger Yen and stronger stocks, I had a suspicion stocks wouldn't hold on....the FXY looks close to breaking out of an ascending triangle...could get ugly for stocks.
interesting ... I'm betting FXY will mean-revert and that will give stocks the boost.
Move on. Just advertising -- no analysis.
Hey Fox, the data sheet is the analysis of multiple technical analysis methods. The PowerZones are the confluence of Elliott Waves, Fibonacci, Volume Profile, Market Profile, Moving Averages, Trend lines and more. I think you were expecting blocks of text saying 'xyz is happening and this is what we expect'. The data sheet is much more subtle and combines all of these elements without paragraphs of dribble. It is primarily aimed at day traders
Pivot, interesting. Thank you. Does the multiple T/A mind meld get the projection into the same zone (no, please don't hit me, but I'm compelled to ask) as the "economic" "forecasts" that are the "consensus" of "economic experts" that, when compared to the "real" "data" always result in an "unexpected" report?
I'm not sure that back testing works when the underlying system function is "radically changed" from the previous system.
I'm enjoying watching your work,
- Ned
OK -- fair enough. I could barely see half of the stuff until I enlarged the PDF. I understand the idea, but I have no clue how to read the matrix. Might help for non-users. I hope it is more than saying these events occur at this price... That would be not much in the way of analysis, allthough certainly a new way to view the metrics, and perhaps helpful even.
even if it is just simple addition of the events, you could even weight based on backtested success and then have a profile of the highest prob reversal price level.
Its perhaps not clear from a brief look at the data sheet, if you spend some time on the site watch the video etc, you will see that the confluence powerzones are exactly what you are talking about. They are the high probability reversal price levels, where multiple S/R methods combined with statistical weighting of that method by analysing how well a particular method works in various market phases an conditions
Exactly what you have just asked for : ) Watch the video, read the tutorial. This is something very unique and something we believe offers an amazing edge to traders.