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Technical & Fundamental Analysis Fall Woefully Short in Assessing Manipulated Markets
- Australia
- Ben Bernanke
- Ben Bernanke
- Capital Markets
- Central Banks
- China
- Doug Kass
- Federal Reserve
- Global Economy
- Great Depression
- India
- KIM
- Main Street
- Market Crash
- Morgan Stanley
- NASDAQ
- POMO
- Precious Metals
- Real estate
- Reality
- Reuters
- Saudi Arabia
- Silver ETFs
- SmartKnowledgeU
- Technical Analysis
- Unemployment
- Wall Street Journal
I have stated this for many years
now and I’ll continue to stand by this statement: Technical and fundamental analysis are of
limited utility in predicting short-term trends in manipulated markets when
analyzed in a vacuum absent of the context of government and bank manipulation.
This not only applies to US stock markets but also to two of the most
manipulated markets of all, the gold and silver futures markets. Often, with
technical analysis, two analysts with multi-years of experience may offer widely
diverging analyses when interpreting the exact same chart. However, if an
analyst refuses or fails to take into account the massive amount of fraud and
manipulation when interpreting charts of the S&P 500 or the Gold &
Silver Continuous Contracts, then I would fathom that analyst would be off the
mark at a much higher clip than he or she would be on the mark. For the past
decade, it has been foolish to deny that massive fraud and manipulation existed
in these aforementioned markets. Refusing to account for the “X factor” of
fraud and manipulation, as it is frequently the single most important factor
that moves these markets in the short-term, is what ultimately turns some
gold/silver analysts into nothing more than weather forecasters.
During sharp corrections and/or
consolidation periods in gold and silver, I inevitably stumble upon comments
posted by gold/silver investors online that become greatly worried by some article
posted by some analyst online that states that the silver and gold bull run has
ended and that silver and gold prices are now going to crash. When this
happens, gold/silver investors need to keep their focus on the big picture to
avoid being led astray by the white noise that will constantly surround them
during every single gold and silver pull back. As for the subset of gold and
silver investors who, by nature, are worrisome creatures, they will always find
analysts in the mainstream media that will gladly fuel their anxiety during
every gold and silver correction or consolidation period. For ten years in a
row now, gold and silver analysts come out of the woodwork to state that gold
and silver are going to crash every single time these particular assets suffer
a decent, rapid short-term correction or consolidation period.
To begin, it is quite easy to
dismiss many of the analysts that call for a crash in gold and silver simply by
conducting an internet search of their past predictions. Doing so will reveal
that some of theses analysts have called for a crash of gold and silver every
single year since the gold and silver bull run began. Other searches will reveal that many of these analysts are
just flat-out terrible and that they have made many other severe warnings about
commodity crashes just about at the exact time they bottomed and then proceeded
to soar higher. Why waste energy
worrying about an analyst’s calls when that analyst has proven himself or
herself to be massively wrong multiple times year in and year out?
But what about analysts whose
calls have been fairly accurate in the past and whose current calls create a
level of concern for you? Then use this second process of separating the wheat
from the chaff. Search the internet, find this analyst’s blog, and read about
this analyst’s calls in the same asset class over a multiple numbers of years. If
you can’t find any public record of past calls for this analyst regarding the
specific asset class he or she is speaking of, then dismiss this analyst. Sure, a lot of analysts will want to
reserve their most detailed and best analysis for their paying clients only and
perhaps this is why they lack any kind of past track record. I reserve my best
and most detailed calls and strategies for my paying clients only as this makes
good business sense. If an analyst posted his best calls online all the time,
why would anyone every pay the analyst for information they can receive for
free?
However, if any analyst ever wants
to develop his or her business, he or she needs to establish a track record in
the public arena as well to prove he or she indeed is worthy of a following.
After establishing a track record for at least two or three years, then such an
analyst can begin to pull back his public predictions and reserve them more
exclusively for the privacy of his or her clients only. Thus, I believe that
any analyst worth his or her salt will have a decent public track record.
Given the rise of gold/silver in
the public consciousness for the past several years, there is now a plethora
of self-proclaimed gold and silver analysts online now that have no discernible
track record of accurate past predictions regarding past movements in the gold
and silver markets or even public comments about gold or silver markets
until just two or three years ago. First of all, if such a person was truly an
expert in gold and silver, realizing that we are in the midst of one of the
largest gold and silver bulls of our lifetime only after gold has risen from
$250 an ounce to $1000 an ounce and silver from $4 to $16 an ounce should
automatically disqualify that person from ever being able to proclaim they are
an “expert”. Furthermore, if an analyst has discussed gold and silver markets
before but never once discussed fraud and manipulation in gold and silver
futures markets until the past couple of years when it became “chic” and
mainstream to do so, then his or her credibility should be highly questionable.
The job of an analyst is to dig deeper than the level of public understanding
and to not be afraid of taking a stance that he or she knows to be true even if
the rest of the world disagrees with him or her at the time. How could a
gold/silver analyst refuse to acknowledge the single most important factor
- fraud and manipulation – that
frequently moves these markets in the short-term, for years and call him or
herself a gold/silver analyst? The equivalent scenario would be a US stock
market analyst that refuses to acknowledge the massive effect of US Federal
Reserve POMO schemes on the current short-term market behavior of the S&P
500, the DJIA and NASDAQ.
On January 25th, in this article I
posted an article titled “Will Junior Mining Stocks be THE Investment of 2011?”
on my online investment blog, the Underground Investor.
I iterated that my outlook for
gold’s ongoing correction would be for a short-term bottom to form “somewhere around
the $1,300 an ounce mark…and not with a further $250 an ounce correction and
the $1,090 an ounce mark called for by Seabreeze Partners Management’s GP Doug
Kass.” I further stated, “I’m going to directly contradict Kass and predict a
pop higher of at least $40 to $50 an ounce in gold sometime during the 10
trading days between January 28th and February 11th.”
To my Platinum Members, to whom I provide much more detailed analysis than anything I
publish in the public arena, I granted them even tighter timeframes for the
turnaround on January 25th -
“I believe that this correction will end by Friday
of this week [January 28th] if not sooner and that we are very close to a
strong reversal now. Look for a bottom to form, and a rebound from gold at
about $1,300 and the HUI at about 495”.
In regard to these predictions, I
provided subsequent actionable strategies regarding gold/silver mining stocks
as well. For the time being, gold bottomed at about $1,308 an ounce on January
28th in Asia, and the HUI bottomed in New York at 492.04 later on the same day (I
issued my bulletin to my members before market open in New York that day). Between
January 28th in Asia and February 4th in New York, gold popped higher by $51.70
an ounce, meeting my call for a $40 to $50 bounce between January 28th and
February 11th.
I based these short-term
predictions and dates of short-term reversals not by blindly picking numbers
out of a hat, but by studying the behavior of the bullion bank manipulators
that continuously manipulate gold (and silver) markets and by combining this
information with technical chart analysis. Of course, we’re not completely
out of the woods yet with gold and silver, and I’ll have to track and interpret
both technical charts and the movements of bullion bank manipulators on a daily
basis to understand whether this reversal in gold/silver markets will now stand
its ground or not. Below, I’ll provide
further examples of how I’ve been incorporating fraud and manipulation analysis
into my technical analysis to accurately foresee both the short-term and
long-term direction of gold and silver markets for years.
With gold and silver futures
markets, one must understand the mechanisms of the likely fraudulent paper gold and
silver ETFs, the GLD and SLV, and the fraudulent paper gold and silver futures markets
and how both of these paper markets influence gold/silver prices independent of
free market supply and demand mechanisms. Of course, this is just the tip of
the iceberg when it comes to understanding the difference between the
mechanisms of how markets truly operate and the false mechanisms that business
schools worldwide teach to the future analysts of the world. An analyst must
always keep in mind fraud and manipulation whenever using technical charts to
predict future behavior in manipulated markets or that analyst’s technical
analysis will ALWAYS be distorted and inaccurate. Whether it’s by design, sheer
arrogance or plain ignorance, this is why a five-year-old child’s predictions
about future US market behavior during the last five years would have stacked
up very well against the predictions made by supposedly very learned men like US
Fed Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke.
On September 16, 2006, in my
article “Has the Commodities
Bubble Burst? No, No, No!”, I stated:
“Everywhere in the media, you have
pundits saying that the commodities Bull Run is over - including even chief
global economists of major investment firms like Steven Roach of Morgan
Stanley. THEY’RE ALL WRONG…I’ve dug deep enough down into the rabbit hole to
know that gold will rise much much higher in the future.. Yes, oil has slipped
to below $60 a barrel but again, this doesn’t mean that oil is done either.”
At the time I made the above
prediction, gold had tumbled nearly 14% in the previous two months to $573 an
ounce, oil had tumbled 25% from $80 a barrel to $60 a barrel and many global
commodity analysts had called for people to sell out of all commodity based
stocks across the board. In particular, a few precious metals analysts used
this steep correction to foment fear among gold investors and called for gold
to retrace all the way back down to its initial starting point in this gold
bull run at $250 an ounce.
So what happened?
Gold, by the end of 2007, soared
from its September 2006 correction that was supposed to usher in a collapse, by
more than 45%, to $833 an ounce!
And for those of you that believe
I am always positive on gold and silver because many of my public postings
happen to be posted near interim bottoms when gold and silver are set to
rebound, this is hardly the case. In my last 2010 Crisis Investment
Opportunities newsletter issue, I warned of an impending gold/silver correction
to begin 2011:
“The
likely time frame for the likelihood of a Central Bank engineered attack
against gold and silver prices has now been pushed out until January or
February 2011.”
Interpretation of fraud and manipulation can help one identify
warnings about short-term pullbacks in the price of certain assets as well as
help in the identification of short-term bottoms.
On December 6, 2007, subscribers
to my free online investment newsletter received this warning:
“Over the past six months, soaring
oil prices are much more directly connected to a devaluing dollar than
decreasing oil supply or peak oil. Had the Gulf Nations declared this week that
they were going to unpeg their currencies from the U.S. dollar, I guarantee you
that oil would have shot up beyond $100 to $120 a barrel within a matter of
weeks [oil was trading at $88 a barrel at this time]. And that would have had
nothing to do with supply and demand and everything to do with feared U.S.
dollar weakness."
Again, my statement above had
nothing to do with fundamentals or technical charts but everything to do with
the fraudulent nature of the US dollar and my understanding of the fraudulent nature
of currency and oil markets. Sure enough, several Gulf Nations unofficially and
quietly temporarily unpegged their currencies from the US dollar over the next
few months, following Saudi Arabia’s lead of temporarily unpegging the Riyal
from the US dollar at the end of 2007. During the next six months that followed
my above statement, oil rose from just $88.40 a barrel to more than $120 a
barrel. In mid-2008, oil peaked out at more than $140 a barrel, though a
certain Wall Street firm’s opportunistic positioning in the oil futures markets
based upon their knowledge of a single U.S. hedge fund that was short 260
million barrels of oil was largely responsible for the final spike in prices
(again, just another example of how short-term price behavior was driven by manipulation
of the banks and not supply-demand based).
Today, I’ve read in newspapers
from the Americas to Europe to Asia, the attempt of many country’s finance
ministers once again to deflect blame away from their Central Banks’ fiat
currency devaluation policies as the root cause of rising commodity and oil
prices. Today finance ministers worldwide have colluded to keep the people in
the dark about reality by stating unilaterally that rising commodity prices are
responsible for inflation versus stating the reality that currency manipulation
is the main culprit of massive inflation.
This same type of “fraud and
manipulation” analysis can be extended to another massively manipulated market,
the US stock market. When predicting the future behavior of US stock markets,
an analyst must always incorporate the fraud of Federal Reserve POMO schemes
and the artificial propping up of a handful of core index stocks that keep
entire indexes afloat into one’s technical analysis.
On March 21, 2007, on my investment
blog, I pricked quite a few investors’ nerves when I wrote the article “The
Short-Term May be Rosy, But Beware the Financial Crisis that is Building
Steam”. In fact, back then, the rise of US stock markets on the back of massive
fraud and manipulation was remarkably comparable to today’s current state of US
stock markets four years later. In that article, I stated:
“Everywhere global stock markets
have rebounded whether in China, Australia, Europe, or the US , short positions
have decreased dramatically, and the bulls are back in full force. However,
there are still two scenarios that every investor should be wary of, one that
is very likely, and one that is near inevitable...I know that a lot of people
will think that any talk of a future global economic crisis is ludicrous but
that is why so few people actually build wealth through investing. Only the
handful of people that take the time to really understand the economics that
brew well below the surface of the Bloomberg reports and CNBC and the Wall
Street Journal will readily prepare their investment portfolios for this
crisis.”
“And this crisis that seems
inevitable to me will be much bigger than the U.S. Great Depression of the
1930’s and much larger than the Asian Financial Crisis of 1997 because the
conditions that are creating this crisis will have a much wider and more
significant global impact than either of these two previous crises. Before
those two crises hit, the overwhelming majority of investors believed that
those people that believed a crisis was imminent were crazy. And during those
times, salesmen and women in the financial industry were able to leverage the
naivete of the thundering sheep herd to get them to do things that led to
certain financial ruin.”
The “economics that brew well
below the surface of the Bloomberg reports and CNBC and the Wall Street
Journal” that I referenced in my above prediction was, of course, the real levels
of key economic indicators versus the fraudulent, “official”
government-reported economic statists that governments disseminate to the
public via mainstream media distribution channels. Because I have always
focused my analysis on government and banker levied fraud and manipulation of
capital markets, even in March of 2007, at a time when many commercial
investment advisors were taking advantage of the steady 9-month advance in US
stock markets to tout their usual “get on board [the US market bull] or get
left behind” propaganda, the precarious nature of the situation at that time
was crystal clear to me.
So what happened after I made this
prediction?
US markets continued to be rosy in the short-term as the title of
my article indicated before eventually topping out in October of that year and
falling by more than 20% by March of the next year. As far as the remainder of
2008, we all know the disastrous year that 2008 ended up being worldwide. How
did we do in 2008? Our Crisis Investment Opportunities newsletter portfolio
still ended up just positive for the year (barely positive, but still positive).
Due to my prediction that a crisis would unfold, we avoided the 40% haircuts
that nearly all commercial investment firm clients suffered that year. Furthermore, just a few weeks ago,
Reuters reported that “home prices fell for the 53rd consecutive month in
November, taking the decline past that of the Great Depression for the first
time in the prolonged housing slump” and that “home values have fallen 26
percent since their peak in June 2006, worse than the 25.9-percent decline seen
during the Depression years between 1928 and 1933”.
But what about my
prediction that this unfolding crisis would be “much bigger than the US Great
Depression”? I still believe that the prediction I made on March 21 of 2007
will come to fruition over the course of the next several years and this global
crisis will become much bigger than the US Great Depression as at some point
this year, we will move from the eye of the economic hurricane back into the
turmoil of the hurricane. In fact, we may already be witnessing the first signs
of my prediction above that this current crisis would “have a much wider and
more significant global impact than either [the Great Depression or the 1997
Asian Financial Crisis]” in the food and unemployment riots that have already
started this year in Egypt, Tunisia, Algieria and India.
By April 23, 2008 as the signs of
an imminent US stock market crash were becoming clearer, I posted another
warning shot on my investment blog titled “Will US Markets Crash Now or Later?”
In that article, I stated: “Should
an extended rally of the Dow above 13,000 occur, it will serve no purpose other
than to create the illusion of wealth, as opposed to the creation of real
tangible wealth. The higher U.S. markets rise in today’s environment, the more
likely it is that they will fall even harder in the future. Here’s why.
Currently, the U.S. Federal Reserve is playing the same shell game that it has
for decades, one in which they alternately inflate stock markets and real
estate markets. If stock markets are crashing, then they inflate real estate
markets, and vice versa. It’s a vicious circle that eventually will collapse
under the weight of its own foolishness. In the late 1920s, in very simple
terms, the U.S. Federal Reserve’s solution to forestall a mild U.S. economic
contraction and to stop England’s gold losses was to print more money.”
What happened?
The US DJIA started a steep decline just
one month later, shedding almost 5,000 points between May and October of 2008!
In conclusion, I’m not stating
that by studying fraud and manipulation, one’s predictions will be spot on year
in and year out. There is no analyst, including myself, that has not made, or will
not make a prediction or two at some point, that will appear silly in
hindsight. No one is infallible, though some may infer as much. But I can
guarantee you this. If an analyst incorporates an understanding of how bullion
banks and governments operate fraud and manipulation schemes into his or her technical
analysis of capital markets, his or her chances of making uncannily accurate
calls in the behavior of capital markets year in and year out become
exponentially better than if he or she were to attempt to predict future market
behavior based on technical analysis alone.
At a time when everyone but the
most naïve of the naïve understand how grossly distorted capital prices are
both to the upside (in global stock markets) and to the downside (in gold and
silver markets) due to massive manipulation schemes executed through collusive bullion-bank
and government efforts, it makes zero sense to continue to put faith in
technical and fundamental analysis alone. Though fundamentals may drive
behavior in the long-term, fundamentals have had, at times, zero effect on the
price discovery of assets in the short-term. Furthermore, with certain sectors
such as the banking sector where insolvent bankrupt banks have been magically
transformed into solvent profitable banks by corrupt regulatory agencies that
have allowed banks to cook their books, the fundamentals of many sectors are
not fundamentally sound! Fraud and manipulation analysis today is more critical
than either fundamental or technical analysis if one wishes to avoid and even profit from the many pitfalls that remain ahead in the global economy.
About the Author: JS Kim is the
Founder and Managing Director of SmartKnowledgeU, a fiercely independent
investment research, education, and consulting firm with a mission of
protecting the interests of Main Street from the fraud of Wall Street.
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technical analysis is based on yesterday's news....it is only good for finding possible entry points based on old news as long as fundamental don't change significantly.
It is like pitching every sunday, I am only as good as I was last sunday........
I think of technical market analysts as a group of people watching clouds in the sky. Each sees something different: a doggie, a pieta, the Last Supper, a coiled snake, etc. The true genius is the one who interrupts all the others to say: "Get under cover, it's raining."
that which is truly criminal cannot be manipulated. it just is or perhaps more effervescently just meant to be. i could add a simile here but it would be truly offensive. All the more so since it would be true. perhaps the mere observation that the police are never there when we want them and always there when we don't will suffice. and trust me when i tell our President knows this all too well.
All analysts make mistakes
The proper question is, who makes the most money?
ditto
big difference between "trader" ........ and "forecaster"
"real time/real money" is the only way to PROVE yourself
most so-called ‘forecasters’ don’t even trade
prove yourself:
1. account statements
2. real time/real$ trading competitions
show me the money........ if you want my bizzne$$
otherwise go over to Traders-Talk and solicit dumb newbies
If a huge player in the market has no interest in profit- and profit is the driver of any real market or technical analysis then then the models won't work...period.
The US government is 100% excellent at losing money and value. And they are doing a bang up job buying high and peeing money down a gopher hole in order to pump up asset values to some fantastical number. Whatever the highs were on the market in 2006- oil at 140,dow 14,000- thats where Ben wants it to go. Its all part of his high school thesis on the depression
dont forget to factor in any snowfall.;>)
Hey i just saw a click through on yahoo finance that john bell turned $10,000 of college loan money into a cool million playing penny stocks. It sounds like a better return than spending it on a for profit educational institute. Student loans, the poor man's margin account.
The casino society comes to a hard end
America is a laughing stock of the wold. the people are nice the leadership is fucked.
obama is making money are you, if the USA wants to survive the military should take him to dinner.
McCrystle it is time to stand up! we need real leadership!
I am not american but i hate to see worl leadership fall!
who else! China?
Fundamentally the key. Understanding who and what entity will be allowed to get away with their actions is the key to make safe and profitable bets.
Who will be allowed to bend the rules, who will be allowed to warp the rule of law, who will not. Critical to make money.
Too bad you aren't makin' out so well. I follow trends, and the trend has been up. Like shootin' fish in a barrel since about August.
Y e a h r i g h t ! That works til it doesn't.
I agree with the assertion that propaganda is being spewed by the mainstream media. I only watch Bloomberg or CNBC for about 30 minutes in the morning. Three days ago I started keeping a record of the propaganda that I saw in this short period of time. Here's a sample:
On Bloomberg they discussed the disappointing ADP employment numbers. But they said those numbers were irrelevant because it’s mostly small companies that are covered by them. She said it was better to rely on the BLS numbers.
There was a guy on CNBC that said we have to start adding 140,000 REAL
> jobs per month. REAL jobs do not include government or healthcare
> jobs. This guy was immediately ignored and they switched to
> an economist with economic models. The economist, who had a macroeconomic model, says that the US is on the cusp of accelerated GDP growth, and accelerated employment levels, which will result in accelerated stock market gains. This acceleration will take place before this summer. Everyone nodded their heads in agreement. When asked if the model predicted the downturn, the answer was that models aren't good at predicting downturns, only upturns.
On Bloomberg, they asked the CEO of Unilever if commodity inflation was a problem since a few people have been saying that commodity inflation has been rampant. (notice how they call it commodity inflation as if it was different than real inflation). The CEO said that "commodity inflation is a little higher than it was, but this should be expected in a recovery, and it's not a problem. It's certainly better than the situation we had at the time of the Lehmann bankruptcy."
So what does the Lehmann bankruptcy have to do with inflation? This guy was primed to get across a certain point, that inflation is better than a depression.
Excellent.
Excellent comments...CofC...
Ya gotta love the comment; "The CEO said that "commodity inflation is a little higher than it was, but this should be expected in a recovery, and it's not a problem. It's certainly better than the situation we had at the time of the Lehmann bankruptcy."
Better for whom? Why, better for the CEO of course!
A CEO appearing on one of the large media outlets probably does not give a whit if prices in gasoline, food, and even health care are rising. These price increases probably represent a small hit to the CEO's take home pay. But, a disaster at Lehman could have caused disasters at other banking centers and potentially have cost the CEO his job. So, naturally, from the CEO's point of view a disaster at Lehman was potentially much more serious than the current up trend in inflation that is being hidden by gov stats.
BTW, I don't bother to watch any main stream media broadcasts any more. They are so skewed as to be useless to an average person...although they might be of some use as a propaganda tool to big financial, big biz, the US gov and other soverigns and central bankers.
Can't help but feel, watching many of these "analysts" (like Kudlow) that they are scared. Maybe I should say, "very scared". Watching the markets either actively or passively since 1960 this is very different, no doubt courtesy of the FED. IMO a strange thing.
When will it break? I doubt that that is analysible so I keep a position in metals and live with one hand on the switch.
Technical analysis is great for the employ of technical analyists.
Lets look at a couple of facts; the Fed has stated in relatively clear terms what it is going to do and that is continue to print money.
We know that all central banks do not like to see increases in PMs vs their fiat currencies because it reflects a rush out of their fiats into the safety of some hard assets. Therefore the CBs will continue to attempt to drive down the prices of PMs via paper proxies.
Central banks exist to save the financial structure of big banking, regardless of any 'mandates' that they are supposed to adhere to.
Central bankers use about 10% of their time deciding what they are going to do and the remaining 90% deciding on how they are going to word their press releases. Propaganda, iows.
Virtually all stats now being released by the US Gov are phony or doctored/skewed so much as to make them useless for technical analysis or any other form of analysis...therefore there is no way to know if capital is being allocated to best or worst use.
The Fed and most other central banks will not raise interest rates when unemployment is north of 10% ...it would be political sucide.
Given the above, what is left to analyze? We know what the Fed must do; continue to print fiat.
Any real analysis boils down to a call on when the Fed must stop printing fiat in vast quantities...and that begs the question; will the Fed stop voluntarily or will they continue until the world rejects the dollar as a transactional currency?
Show me a chart of the above and make a call...for it is now the only one that matters.
Exactly. Technical analysts have to keep faith in technical analysis. It puts food on family.
Well done. Seems to me if Gold was not a asset of choice , then why do the banks own most all of it?
v intriguing. but pray tell, what indicators did u look at in 2007/08 that augured a mkt correction. your quotes dont say so....
thanks
Technical and Fundamental market analysis clearly needs a whole new model to account for central planning, deception, fraud and manipulation of the markets.
Why reinvent the wheel? Can we not use the same Stevie Wonder Model we use for China?
Systemic risk.
Technical and fundamental analysis are not just rubbish at gauging short term trends, but any trend over any length of time.
Regards "manipulated markets" I think our view of that changes markedly depending on whether we're making money (all is well) or losing money (it's manipulated to hell).
So what kinds of reports does one obtain to measure governmental effect besides POMO? Black pools are too deep and banks swim below those murky waters.
Excellent post. We gold and silver buyers are always climbing a wall of worry. In the end, on a long enough time line, the intrinsic value of paper always reverts back to it's true value.