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Technical Reading: Adverse Selection vs. Opportunistic Savings in Dark Aggregators

Tyler Durden's picture




From the Conclusion:

  • Avoid using passive strategies or manually managing tactical limits early in the trade, especially in high volatility markets when trading non-discretionary orders
  • Use dark aggregators tactically with limited exposure times
  • When using opportunistic algorithms or trading tools, it is important to control the participation rate. Ideally this can achieved pre-emptively through predictive analytics, but ex-post control measures like imposing minimum and maximum participation rates already lead to significant improvements.
  • Exploit the alpha gleaned from the participation rate anomaly. On a rise in the dark fill rate, consider pulling back to passive strategies; when dark aggregators run dry consider engaging in the displayed markets to keep to a reasonable schedule.
  • Use opportunistic algorithms or dark aggregators in situations with low adverse information risk

Fun evening reading: Adverse Selection vs. Opportunistic Savings in Dark Aggregators, courtesy of Pipeline and AllianceBernstein

 




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Fri, 08/14/2009 - 18:55 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Fri, 08/14/2009 - 19:04 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Fri, 08/14/2009 - 21:01 | Link to Comment someday
someday's picture

My understanding is that bill didn't pass in the senate. Nevertheless, .gov will take care of deposits somehow. Can you imagine the chaos if they didn't?

Sat, 08/15/2009 - 11:00 | Link to Comment My cognitive di...
My cognitive dissonance's picture
I can imagine it.
Sat, 08/15/2009 - 18:32 | Link to Comment someday
someday's picture

To attack anything other than chart reading as BS is, however, unreasonable.

Fri, 08/14/2009 - 19:00 | Link to Comment yy
yy's picture

A great paper and demonstration of LACK of common sense, or any sense at all....

I wonder whether people who entrust their wealth/cash to these guys think about what they are doing, unless it is not their wealth that is fueling the process.

Oh well, the more of those the better off we are, I can sleep better at night. 

Fri, 08/14/2009 - 19:03 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Fri, 08/14/2009 - 19:09 | Link to Comment Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

Spreads are going to be renamed. They will be called the swap goatse.

Fri, 08/14/2009 - 20:01 | Link to Comment dnarby
dnarby's picture

*_g_o_a_t_s_e_x_*_g_o_a_t_s_e_x_*_g_o_a_t_s_e_x_*
g_____________________________________________g
o_/_____\_____________\____________/____\______o
a|_______|_____________\__________|______|_____a
t|_______`______________|_________|_______:____t
s`________|_____________|________\|_______|____s
e_\_______|_/_______/___\\\___--___\\_______:____e
x__\______\/____--~~__________~--__|_\_____|____x
*___\______\_-~____________________~-_\____|___*
g____\______\__________--------_______\|___|______g
o______\_____\______//_________(_(__>__\___|____o
a_______\______C____)_________(_(____>__|__/___a
t_______/\_|___C_____)/_______\_(_____>__|_/_____t
s______/_/\|___C_____)________|__(___>___/__\____s
e_____|___(____C_____)\______/__//__/_/_____\____e
x_____|____\__|_____\\_________//_(__/_______|___x
*____|_\____\____)___`----___--'______________|___*
g____|__\______________\_______/___________/____g
o___|______________/____|_____|__\__________|___o
a___|_____________|____/_______\__\__________|__a
t___|__________/_/_____|________|__\__________|__t
s___|_________/_/______\__/\___/____|__________|_s
e__|___________/________|____|______\_________|_e
x__|__________|_________|____|_______|_________|x
*_g_o_a_t_s_e_x_*_g_o_a_t_s_e_x_*_g_o_a_t_s_e_x_*

 

...You had that comin' for bringin' goatse up on ZH.

Fri, 08/14/2009 - 19:34 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Fri, 08/14/2009 - 19:38 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Fri, 08/14/2009 - 19:36 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Fri, 08/14/2009 - 19:41 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Fri, 08/14/2009 - 19:56 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Fri, 08/14/2009 - 21:35 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Fri, 08/14/2009 - 23:01 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Sat, 08/15/2009 - 10:10 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Sat, 08/15/2009 - 23:19 | Link to Comment drwed (not verified)
Sat, 08/15/2009 - 09:17 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Fri, 08/14/2009 - 20:16 | Link to Comment SloSquez
SloSquez's picture

How to build the "Perfect Predator", I don't think so.  The military is quite adept.

Sat, 08/15/2009 - 05:28 | Link to Comment peterpeter
peterpeter's picture

If teaching a class, I would talk to Interactive Brokers about setting up test accounts, and use their Java client and local API for getting quotes and placing trades.

Unlikely given the simulated environment and how it works that any of the students models will actually make money, but it is a safe way to learn, and FIX is basically a disaster to try and teach.

Trading through IB is slow (100s of ms on average), but since no students will put real capital at risk, that shouldn't be an issue.

Not sure where to get historical data.  A reasonably cheap source is NxCore, but likely far too expensive for a class setting.

Sat, 08/15/2009 - 09:20 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Sat, 08/15/2009 - 13:41 | Link to Comment peterpeter
peterpeter's picture

Well, it wouldn't be competitive with what we both may think of as HF strategies, however there are arbitrages (statisitcal and non-statistical) that do exist long enough to make money trading through IB.

Sat, 08/15/2009 - 13:57 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Sat, 08/15/2009 - 15:27 | Link to Comment peterpeter
peterpeter's picture

I think we are basically in violent agreement.

I've however given some thought as to how I would teach a course on alg. trading - and IB always comes out on top.  Of course, that is not HF trading, and it doesn't deal with the myriad of very hard technical problems that need to be addressed to turn a 150ms latency application into a sub 1ms application... but I was guessing that the person asking the question was really just interested in automated trading strategies... since going after a HF strategy in a classroom environment seems unlikely.

I do think that it would be great to have an advanced operating systems class focus on building device drivers to load Level-2 quotes into blocks of shared memory... but that project in and of itself would likely take most of the semester, and noone would get to use the data.

Sat, 08/15/2009 - 15:42 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Sat, 08/15/2009 - 23:19 | Link to Comment drwed (not verified)
Sun, 08/16/2009 - 00:04 | Link to Comment Narrator
Narrator's picture

Use an agent based market model coupled with network simulators. That's what I did.

Fri, 08/14/2009 - 19:41 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Sat, 08/15/2009 - 11:44 | Link to Comment Miles Kendig
Miles Kendig's picture

Knowing that you don't know, but are attempting to discern and learn places you in the top 10% of society as a whole.

Keep on keepin' on and before you know it you will be understanding it a bit more each day.

Sat, 08/15/2009 - 14:13 | Link to Comment bookwurm
bookwurm's picture

@#37509;

when you quit trying t figure it out is when your too old...since finding Z.H. my head has been exploding,,,but in a good way...

Sat, 08/15/2009 - 18:33 | Link to Comment someday
someday's picture

me too

Fri, 08/14/2009 - 20:33 | Link to Comment RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

All these scientific approaches to trading are a total waste of time.

In fact, managing big money is nearly impossible these days, given all the tricks being pulled daily.

Small time traders like me working on a 4-year old laptop using common sense and thinking like a criminal at Goldman Sachs can successfully trade without the need of these Dark Pools and analytics.

Just have to act like a street fighter and stay nimble.

Fri, 08/14/2009 - 21:30 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Fri, 08/14/2009 - 22:04 | Link to Comment SloSquez
SloSquez's picture

Agreed, It sorta reminds me of the fast footed salesman.  The financial types need to move away from the math.  They get lost in their own conundrum.  I know - sounds rediculous. 

Sat, 08/15/2009 - 23:19 | Link to Comment drwed (not verified)
Sun, 08/16/2009 - 01:22 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Sun, 08/16/2009 - 11:22 | Link to Comment zeta
zeta's picture

Re-read his post. He thinks like a criminal at Goldman Sachs with billions of money to spend daily.

Fri, 08/14/2009 - 21:01 | Link to Comment someday
someday's picture

Different regulators probably have different examiners that show up to check out the books on different days. I mean, if they do stuff like that anymore...

Fri, 08/14/2009 - 21:09 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Fri, 08/14/2009 - 21:26 | Link to Comment heatbarrier
heatbarrier's picture

 "Psychos and Market Makers", another interesting paper by the same people, Pipeline Financial, probably intel.

“Pipeline gives buy-side traders a unique control advantage in fragmented, volatile and predator-laced markets by using prediction science, encryption technology, and real world experience. This advantage enables traders to efficiently drive orders to completion - on their terms.”

Fri, 08/14/2009 - 22:14 | Link to Comment SloSquez
SloSquez's picture

"prediction science".  Reminds me of Jumbo Shrimp or Government Intelligence.  A bit of a misnomer.  There is a reason the weather man can't get out any farther than he does.

Fri, 08/14/2009 - 21:47 | Link to Comment Milton
Milton's picture

This will explain how Wall Street really works, in simple terms of baseball cards.

"What effect will the rumor have on the price of baseball cards?"

The Great Baseball Card Scheme with John Houseman:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v6PIBt1SjjI

 

Fri, 08/14/2009 - 22:27 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Fri, 08/14/2009 - 22:40 | Link to Comment MinnesotaNice
MinnesotaNice's picture

Did you write your own algo based software... and if so how did you link it into a trading platform?  Just curious... my background is in programming... so I wanted to file away your answer for possible future use.

Fri, 08/14/2009 - 22:38 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Fri, 08/14/2009 - 23:46 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Sat, 08/15/2009 - 00:19 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Sat, 08/15/2009 - 00:29 | Link to Comment Anonymous
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Sat, 08/15/2009 - 08:22 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Sat, 08/15/2009 - 11:10 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Sat, 08/15/2009 - 09:06 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Sat, 08/15/2009 - 09:28 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Sat, 08/15/2009 - 10:12 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Sat, 08/15/2009 - 10:14 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Sat, 08/15/2009 - 10:16 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Sat, 08/15/2009 - 11:02 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Sat, 08/15/2009 - 11:24 | Link to Comment Anonymous
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Sat, 08/15/2009 - 17:53 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Sat, 08/15/2009 - 11:54 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Sat, 08/15/2009 - 12:07 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Sat, 08/15/2009 - 12:18 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Sat, 08/15/2009 - 12:33 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Sat, 08/15/2009 - 12:42 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Sat, 08/15/2009 - 12:52 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Sat, 08/15/2009 - 13:01 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Sat, 08/15/2009 - 13:11 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Sat, 08/15/2009 - 13:47 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Sat, 08/15/2009 - 14:10 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Sat, 08/15/2009 - 14:26 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Sat, 08/15/2009 - 14:39 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Sat, 08/15/2009 - 15:02 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Sat, 08/15/2009 - 15:05 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Sat, 08/15/2009 - 15:24 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Sat, 08/15/2009 - 13:18 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Sat, 08/15/2009 - 13:23 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Sat, 08/15/2009 - 13:38 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Sat, 08/15/2009 - 13:49 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Sat, 08/15/2009 - 13:55 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Sat, 08/15/2009 - 14:04 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Sat, 08/15/2009 - 14:15 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Sat, 08/15/2009 - 14:25 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Sat, 08/15/2009 - 14:39 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Sat, 08/15/2009 - 15:03 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Sat, 08/15/2009 - 18:34 | Link to Comment someday
someday's picture

There is absolutely no basis in reality for any of the prices right now.

Sat, 08/15/2009 - 18:03 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Sat, 08/15/2009 - 18:01 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Sat, 08/15/2009 - 19:14 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Sat, 08/15/2009 - 20:15 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Sat, 08/15/2009 - 13:32 | Link to Comment No More Bubbles
No More Bubbles's picture

What a bunch of meaningless mumbo-jumbo with no actual value to what is going on.  This market is nothing more than a massive cesspool of a casino with countless different "guessers" trying to out-guess the next guessser and exit their position with a profit.  There is absolutely no basis in reality for any of the prices right now.  A crash is going to happen and catch 90% of these clowns long and wipe them out in minutes!

Sat, 08/15/2009 - 15:27 | Link to Comment sellside_pov
sellside_pov's picture

If you trade for your own, small account, and only look at the world from that perspective, all of this stuff seems like mumbo jumbo that is irrelevant to fundamental values and the broader economy.  But in order to understand what is really happening in markets you have to understand that most money is managed by large institutional investors.  Prices are set by institutional, not retail investors.  These people have 2 problems.  The first is to figure out where fundamental values are going.  The second is to actually position (execute) their portfolios accordingly.  If you only manage your own money you don't have the second problem.  You get to take whatever prices are set by the big players.  But if you are managing billions of dollars you have to consider the execution problem, otherwise your bad executions will wipe out whatever profits you might have made on correct fundamental calls.

The article is about trade execution, it's not about fundamental investing; valuing companies.  Both have to happen in the market.  If you want to understand what' going on you have to understand both aspects of this game.  They are both important.

 

 

Sat, 08/15/2009 - 18:33 | Link to Comment someday
someday's picture

Even the most traditional , old-school traders are using algorithms in order to find liquidity and get the best prices they can.

Sat, 08/15/2009 - 19:54 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Sat, 08/15/2009 - 20:01 | Link to Comment sellside_pov
sellside_pov's picture

lol, he's front-running your comments.

Sat, 08/15/2009 - 20:13 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Sat, 08/15/2009 - 23:19 | Link to Comment drwed (not verified)
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