This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.
With Technical Support Breached, Here Is Where The ES Is Heading Next
Now that the market has successfully retested the 150 DMA with a little assistance from David Tepper who really said nothing new, below we present the immediate support levels in the ES. The 200 DMA and the March swing lows are next (and yes, there are about 20 points in the ES before we go to unchanged for the year).
»
- 14228 reads
- Printer-friendly version
- Send to friend
- advertisements -
Where's Robo? Is now a good time to buy XRT?
MomoFader is watching and raving about LULU up 5% after it fell 20%. He's an idiot.
I hope he sold at the top.
The TA boxes will buy the 1267.50 area on the ES(u)
Thats the line in the sand
If only Bernankincide buys (aka prints) another many trillions in fiat to give away to the banksters and Squid, inducing an even sicker economy, more job losses, higher inflation and other ills, he's hoping he can get the indexes above their nominal -- hell, maybe even absolute -- 1999 levels.
Oh, how so many people and businesses the StockPonzi scam obliterates on what is growing to be shorter and shorter intervals, or as I like to call them, danger close neutronic activity waves.
Black boxes & collocated servers have just begun the tip the entire system into the uber-madness that will redefine 'equity, bond and commodity investments,' and the amount of minced meat that results will be more than enough to produce the finest meats & cheeses for those trading on that precious insider 411.
This fake ponzi market could take a 500 point drop at any time and it wouldn't surprise me in the slightest. There are some true believers out there but I have to think most of these traders know deep down this is all a bunch of horseshit.
Yet, all the big brokerage firms continue to tell their retail clients that the market is cheap based on forward P/E.
Makes me sick.
An ode to the S&P today..
Bye, bye, miss 1275,
Drove my chevy to the levy
so I don't see Robo cry
Bernank need Market crash to justify QE3 -
all other conditions has been met already.
Well of course the big brokers are desperate to dump their garbage equities to anyone now.
I love the use of the word "forward". They could replace that with the word "imaginary".
So true. I'm actually giving a presentation next week and I'll be discussing the fraud which is forward P/E. I'm surprised my firm is even letting me do it.
I always loved the 'forward' PE. When you're the seller and you provide information to the buyer on what the market preceives.... oh that is sweet - what a suckers game.
sarcasm / Here is our unbiased anlysis of the forward PE... really, its that good. /sarcasm
My favorite is that the big brokers still use the 8.5% annual return when talking to clients about retirement planning. "If you add $200 a month into a mutual fund when you're 21, you'll be a millionaire by the time you're 65". Then the fine print at the bottom says "assuming 8.5% compound growth every single year"
+ 1 Laminated 2007 Ibbotson Chart
I don't think any "trader" is a true believer. That is what will be left for Edward Jones clients, truly believing that S + P at 300 will rebound over the long term. LOL
It could also jump 500pts at any time. Of course we know it's horseshit but what in this world isn't? Honestly I could care less, that's the beauty of being able to go long or short.
My guy at Edward Jones who handles my retirement accounts looked at me like I was fricken Frankenstein when I sold everything and went 100% cash back when the S&P was at 1330 in April. I bet him a steak dinner the market would suck back at least 10% by July 1 and here we are with a few weeks to go. Can't wait to go back in Aug for a filet, an extra dry martini and promptly tell him to kiss my ass. These guys are fucking morons.
Thats ok he probably made 3% commission on the buy and sell and grosed 6 of that 10 percent. I think he can afford your steak dinner :).
where is robo? he is busy right now doing some consulting work.
'Consulting work'...so thats what theyre calling the hired boys at the old mens parties these days?
I think he's working on building harry wanger's import biz- some kind of new fangeled quick expansion blowup thingies...
Actually, looks like no one at the CMG, BIDU, NFLX helmet-wearers party had noticed and climbed back on the short bus yet.
I've found him - he's acting out the trajectory of his portfolio:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mbOqg373faE&feature=related
He's working on his unified financial formula which will, once and for all, combine the Dow, Fx, MM, debt, derivatives, gold, silver, gravity, quantum theory and the speed of light squared all into one formula with 10 terms. Go Robo Go. You get em girl!
And here is where the Treasuries are headed next:
10 year: 2.85%
5 year: 1.40%
So which ultra bears look good right now?
I don't touch the utlra's. See the ZH piece (yesterday) about ETF tracking error.
My bearish trade, since March, has been to be heavily LONG the 10-year, and now I've shifted the position to the 5-year.
Longing the 10yr huh, you got balls sir. Good for you.
Going against Mr Gross, anyway.
Who cares about Treasuries? They pay off in defaulted US Fiatscos, totaly irrelevant.
As I sell and book profits, I buy PM's.
Btw, I've been buying a LOT of PM's lately!
Splain to me why yield's are going down, do the dipsticks actually see Tresuries as a " Safe Haven". In my mind I can't see why anyone would buy Tresuries from a country that is BK?
I agree 100%.....in the long-term.
But for a lot of reasons, in the short-term, Treasuries will get (and have been) bid up when a storm hits.
A storm is approaching (started?).....
P.S. Study what happened in '10 after QE1 ended. History is rhyming?
.....and your gold ETF pays off in ?????
Robo always seems to vanish when the market takes a shitter...he must have gotten flushed with the market again today.
He is just looking up the tickers of some leveraged inverse ETF's that he can claim he bought on the open.
hes to busy pushing the sale button try to cover his losses
It's hard to post when you're curled up in the fetal position on the floor behind the toilet dry wretching until veins pop out of your forehead.
I need to buy a popcorn machine to get the most out of the next few months.
going long popcorn machine vendors
http://www.lehmans.com/store/Outdoors___Camping___Campfire_Popcorn_Popper___21616?Args=
----------------------------------------------------------
PS: Ultimate support for GM is $0.00, again.
Plenty of GM shorts still available...
haha nicely done
I can hardly believe the name of the popcorn-iron's camping retailer. THIS is what he is doing now. Is his brother still at Wall Street?
Did you hear GM is forcing Cadillac dealers to refab the dealerships with marble and sparkly lighting and leather furniture and other "upscale" remodeling to "improve sales"?
Will cost dealerships $200K to $1 million each.
GM will pay a portion "depending upon how many cars the dealership takes delivery of".
I wonder if each deleivered Caddy will have a tube of KY in the glove box?
Escalades are more expensive than the Mercedes SUVs. Can someone please post some zerohege articles talking in detail % of the types of financing going on in dealerships and how so many high end cars are on the road. Cars above 40k. Is 7 year financing going on commonly or what? Somehow fiscally these cars are gonna float back into the sytem and cause real pain for dealer financing new sales, new or used. Any banks that have enough exposure to go splat from this exposure alone that are public?
you just reminded me that I still have some microwave popcorn lying around.
brb.
Get an old timey popcorn pan with the lid you can use over a campfire...we'll need it.
You can roast coffee beans in those, too, right?
IYR should finally feel some pressure at mortgage market problems are coming to the forefront again. Financials too.
its transitory until the PPT beepers go off.
It's close to that time that the PPT members are told there's no more smack. They'll be sent home to dig in the couch cushions for coins and report back to their battle stations with whatever they find.
Right. I doubt the PPT wants to end up owning the entire market.
You mean they want to own an broad asset class that's probably in the range of 35% to 75% overvalued (sorry I can't be confident in throwing a more narrow range out, as we'll just have to see where the forces of nature take economic conditions)?
One thing is for sure, matching up truly good and bad assets will be a real ass-kicker, since price distortion of a historically epic magnitude has happened due to central bankster interventionism, even for those in on the game.
Even if they could come into possession of the whole enchilda, that would mean breaking it down and unloading it back onto actual buyers would be a fun unwind to witness, as I do believe we'd be at that point of no return using our conventional monetary system.
QE bitches, or Wall Street pulls the trigger.
Go ahead, print $2 trillion defaulted US LOLlars....who really cares?
Please pull the trigger already so that I can buy real value added and revenue bearing assets for pennies on the dollar with the cash, gold and silver I have. Go ahead, make my day.
When all the experts and forecasts agree, something else will happen. - Bob Farrell
With the HFT's, the POMO's, the insider selling, the no volume melt-up, the economy in the tank, the no enthusiam for the market from Mrs. Havercamp, the state deficits hitting within a month, the fiscal deficit crisis looming, the housing market, etc....we're do for at least a ramp into the close, right?
Or perhaps, not, and a Black Monday is in the works when the triggers get mixed, confused, and dump. In fact, perhaps we see a Black Monday that gets us back to, errr, 1987 prices when Greenspan officially started working the Keynensian Central Bank majic? What starts on computer alo tradeing ends on a convert algo trade?
Some form of additional monetization by the Fed is coming, whatever they call it, and in whatever amount is possible, depending on how bad things get, and they are about to get bad (this isn't a forecast for a specific timeline, though I'd make the claim we'll see many standard deviations from the mean events within a couple of years, and I'd say sooner rather than later in that window, even with an election year approaching - it's no longer about what they want to do, but what they are able to do).
The relevant question is whether it will have the same, less, no or negative net effects on bond, equity and commodity markets, rather than the positive ones associated with the past round.
The economy is being literally propped up by massively inefficiently recycle BernankeBux, loaned by the Fed to the taxpayers, which is merely causing consumers and businesses (especially those not exposed to global markets) to be crushed by inflationary pressures, demand destruction (for goods, services and labor), savers to get crushed by ZIRP (as Bernanke has artificially supressed yields on savings) and is causing a very terrible economy (deteriorating further and faster again at this point) to starting to eat its own tail, in preparation to go further as it starves.
Bernanke is a genius, I tell you all (/sarc). His plan has allowed the organic economy to weaken considerably, spike inflation across nearly every category (including causing a very unnatural superboom in commodities), destroy not just private sector -- but now even government (and its only just begun) -- employment, and now he has the walls closing in on him (and our economy).
Yep. He was Time Magazine's Man of the Year for good reason. He was said to have saved us from a Great Depression.
Bernanke saved us from nothing. He exacerbated our problems, kicked the can, added to the U.S. Government Debt, entrapped more debt slaves amongst U.S. consumers and businesses, and merely delayed the Big Show, which is going to be a real tear jerker.
Instead of taking the medicine in 2008, knowing it would have meant more short term pain as the chemo was administered, there'd at least be a chance to get the cancer into remission or maybe even get on track to wiping out the malignant tumors for good, but nope, Bernanke administered Heroin, and told everyone that things were stable and would get better.
You're doing a heckuva job, Bernanke.
Im all set, I have plenty of food and gear and guns around here...bring it on Bernank ya pussy.
food,gear,guns,pussy, check.
pm's, check
property in a small town with running water and well, and a couple of acres for growing food, animals, check
bring on the collapse.
Dude, you don't get it. In a full-on collapse, you would not have enough guns or bullets to defend that two acres for very long. You would be praying that the military came to restore order and kill all the have-nots for you.
nah, i have enough knowledge to make extreme casualty rates amoung an attacking force.
also, i believe its sort of like going camping in bear country. i don't have to outrun the bear, i just have to outrun you, lol
if a group attempts to bring it. i believe i can make them go try anywhere else.
Good point, aerojet. He still has time to start working with folks in his small town towards a defensive plan involving the community, especially if he can get the local law enforcement to buy in. I would suggest a copy of "Patriots" by James Wesley, Rawles.
more would likely die of starvation because the media would tell them to just sit tight in their homes, and they would obey. by the time the majority realised they might want to flee the city available gasoline would be dwindling or gone.. there won't be mass exodus from cities because most people don't understand the just in time nature of trade. the illusion of safety in america is everywhere, most people would be paralysed by fear at the sight of any violence.
you won't have to defend yourself from hordes for long, maybe just the first few months, then it will slow down to a trickle around a year out, and by five years, just the occasional bandits.
It's always the same with posts like that--always too late, should have done it back in '01, '08, what have you.
Taking the medicine?
Yep. It's always the same, whether in matters economic or health.
It's always better to try to get a pernicious infection under control sooner rather than later, but even if one badly misses the sooner part, and if they still have a pulse, they still might have a fighting chance by at least taking the medicine at some point.
That's one hell of an ES pothole.
Here is a picture of America hitting its own pot hole.
Now all that's left to do is to get some work crews busy covering over the "America" name on our military, government offices and so on. Please don't forget Bank of America while you have the white wash on hand.
http://www.airlinereporter.com/2011/06/oop-united-airlines-boeing-737-hits-pothole-causes-lots-of-damage/
HA HA awesome post.
But why is it wearing that bandaid on its fuselage as well?
Blame that on weather?
Name cover.
When any airline has a plane involved in a serious accident where the plane is stranded on the ground for more than a day they ALWAYS rush crews out to cover over the name and logo to try to prevent pictures published by the MSM that can identify which airline screwed up.
Remember this is America. We don't read the news. We just look at the pictures. See Jane. See Jane run. Run Jane run.
I like the part where you said "we don't read the news" and then someone else said something clearly not having read the news and then you said there was a link to the original story and then you said what the story said so in the end they never ended up reading the story and had to take your word for it.
...Reminds me of most of my life.
The irony screams for attention.
Move along, nothing to see, hear or read here.
potential causes to be investigated:
- pilot too much to drink
- airtraffic controler fall asleep
- missile
- shoe bomber
the real cause though it might simple be old, crumbling equipment...time to buy some chinese top of the line aircraft....
Actually I gave the link to the story. The name of the link itself tells the entire story. Pot hole in the concrete pavement. More like sink hole in fact.
Plane was just painted and was being taxied away from paint shop contractor building. No passengers.
my guess was close enough....crumbling smt...thanks CD!
No offense intended -- I liked that the first 4 things you thought of were all bogus "Ministry of Safety" ideas ...
I think we need a new Federal agency to inspect the condition of runways prior to every airplane leaving its gate. Sure, there will be delays, but it's for our safety, and will create jobs. Good Looking Out, .Gov!!
I recommend the 'tap' test. We hire tens of thousands of government union pay scale people all armed with hammers to walk in front of taxing planes tapping the pavement to test for structural soundness.
The good news is that the engines will suck up at least a few hundred each week, removing them from the work force. They will be rapidly replaced which will reduce unemployment.
#Winning
Where's my Pulitzer?
It merely encountered a soft-patch.
Transitory soft patch.
I sent out a guy with a bag of quick setting concrete to fix it right up. He'll take some of the extra parts that fell off the plane and throw them in the pot hole to fill it up, then cement over the top with the bag of concrete.
Then he will tender his resume to the FED as the new Chairsatan. Real world work experience is a plus.
"sent out a guy with a bag of quick setting concrete to fix it right up. He'll take some of the extra parts that fell off the plane and throw them in the pot hole to fill it up, then cement over the top with the bag of concrete."
Sounds to me like TEPCO S.O.P. for fixing Fukushima.
It does, doesn't it.
Sloppy thinking and sweep-under-the-carpet work has endlessly applications in the PONZI world at large.
Wait a minute, I was recently spellbound by the BlowHorn's Carter Worth and his presentation about the supportive nature of the 150 sma, or what he called the "smoothing mechanism." So cool was his name for this technical point on the chart, I went all in on Netflix. Are you now telling me that it was a mistake to feel all "smoothed" by Carter Worth?
I guess I should have known better, and watched the advertisements on the BlowHorn more carefully so as to find the right financial services firm to make this call for me, and at substantially higher fees.
What's next? Posts about how Netflix has outperformed the QQQs by 40% in just the last 100 days...and that this is somehow wrong...or a gross misallocation of capital?
I am shocked! Shocked, I say!
I think the 'smoothing mechanism' is a giant size steamroller and the Blowhorn is trying to pick up pennies in front of it.
I can see the NFLX story....after all what do americans have to do these days except sit at home and watch movies?
I agree that unemployed Average Joe can really use Netflix. However, and since almost 80 years of current earnings are priced into the stock as of today, I'm just a tad concerned about going all in on those shares due to the notion that, just maybe, over that 80 year time frame, a competitor MAY emerge. Just MAYBE.
Not sure whether I should sell my left kidney and increase my NFLX position...but I'm considering it.
No doubt its a 100 P/E total joke, like everything else except GM shorts, Blowhorn will never talk about that I bet.
DEFLATION BITCHES!
Have you seen the dollar? It will roar like never before to unseen levels higher.
SLV and GLD will hit the bottom of a pit that's so deep that even Tyler Durden will be surprised and blink to see Gold at $490!!!
S&P 400, not overnight, but its coming. And......the FED will be powerless as they are trapped and a $600 trillion derivatives market that unwinds and accelerates its unwinding is far greater than the sum of all central banks.
Disclosure: Long VXX, FAZ, UUP
Nice portfolio. So, what are you going to do when you are finally able to retire...in about two weeks?
Brother Cdad appears to be quite exuberant this morning. A more conservative observer might figure it will take 4 to 6 weeks to retire. :>)
I am feeling pretty frisky today, brother Cog.
I bet that's why the spouse loves you. :>)
She definitely loves my "smoothing mechanism."
Well..........I'm not touching that.
Chicken.
Uhh, I own some VXX but based on recent performance I expect it to do another reverse split around the time S&P hits 1000.
VXX has been terrible for me too. Will be interesting to see what happens if this crash is real. Hope you're wrong about another reverse split.
I find myself agreeing with bazooka. Only because history is on his side.
Look at Japan. Their 3-month t-bills have been at zero for the past 15-16 years. And the Nikkei made new lows after the initial crash several times.
Except, USA downward path will be left translated; e.g. real quick unlike Japan's slow bleed. Their deflation started while the rest of world was still in bull market and Japan had goods to sell into that market.
However, today, USA and EU and Japan are fucked! All in the same deflationary death spiral.
Look for the Yen to go to 30 from current 80.
During deflation, physical cash becomes king and credit implodes to smithereens!
Im Short UDN alot (puts). Hopefully, this will be epic.
Wow, all that from a 150 point down day on the DOW...hmm, quite forecast don't ya think?
wait, I thought if the shadow market collapses all of these etf's will default no ?
"With Technical Support Breached, Here Is Where The ES Is Heading Next"
Give us some volume and we may even get there today
LMAO
yeah, likewise - we have a bit more volume than on the 'rally' yesterday, but this isn't very energetic.
I'll be a tad contrarian and say that it looks to me like the lows of late January [22-29] may be the magnet here. Put it this way, I'm enough concerned about that potential that I'm not going to go hyper-aggressively Short based on today's action. A close anywhere near of above 1273 looks like a potential support ledge.
I'm watching the late day volume
How quickly everyone forgets about the daily POMO scam. I refuse to short again until the full POMO schedule ends.
Please refresh my memory, POMO ? thanks
Permanent Open Market Operations. It's when the Fed buys Treasuries from banks (which often are the same Treasuries the banks just bought from the Treasury). It's also known as a circle jerk, or a bullshit ponzi scheme, or money printing, or theft (we're the victims).
Thank you, memory isn't what it was, I think
The deeper you look into POMO and the more you understand it, the more nauseated you will become.
Watch out. Algos love to fade a bearish open. Low volume allows them to do their levitation act.
I hope you are right, and the fractal algo's kick in and give EVERYBODY WITH EVEN A MODICUM OF INTELLECTUAL PROCESSING POWER the chance to sell. I'd like to see Average Joe get an opportunity to get on the "two weeks to retirement" plan.
Having said that, I rather think the fact that volume is still low indicates that the puking of equities is yet to come.
I agree, lets just keep easing lower day by day and save the wash out volume spike until we get sub 1000 or so on the $SPX
Why are PM's still taking a beating with the markets? Why do people not see them as "safe?" When/will the heard wake up? What will happen when they do? Soros said, "Gols will be the utimate bubble." I believe this is what he was describing. Also... .looks like Mathman got a new alias names.. Bazooka
The big boys are not permitted to stop playing the stocks/bonds/cash game. It's the price they pay so the government does their bidding and lets them hose taxpayers.
Deflation: Disappearance of credit!
Physical dollar bills are and will become more in demand as credit disappears. When credit implodes and no one can get credit....transactions will become cash! Also, volume and number of transactions will plunge like never before since credit disappears.
Pick your bank very carefully, as FDIC only has about $60 billion to insure nearly $2 trillion in deposits. When the we go to S&P 400, and banks are failing left and right, the FDIC will shock everyone and say: "Instead of insurance of $250k, we can only insure $10,000 per deposit..." This will truly be a WTF moment for many.
$600 trillion derivative market based on leverage and credit that is imploding! And yet, there is only $960 billion in physical cash in circulation. Keep your dollars as it will buy alot more gold than at current $1,527 price. During deflation, the buying power of USD roars.
A $700k house will be worth $70k....now that's a great buying power of USD!
Name one other debt ridden empire that has crashed through deflation. How do we service the current debt with deflation? How can we service our debt wirhout first cutting the deficit? What evidence do you see of the federal budget being cut? Who buys the excess in treausuries in the mean time and how? You are on crack man.
When the market crashed in 2008, equities and commodities went down with it. And the dollar was worse than it is now. Don't see how this time will be different.
Oh right, and then the regulators and politicians let the market bottom out and start a self-sustained recovery from there.
The Bernank was caught flat footed back then, but next time they will counter quicker. And they will never run out of binary printer ink, aka 0s and 1s.
conquer the crash
agree completely but how does this happen? could be markets begin pricing in risk? haven't done it yet. could be the lenders realize they are losing money, in a hyperinflationary scenario. although lenders can adjust their rates. during the stagflationary 70's interest rates on CDs went double digits, and no one wanted to borrow money at those rates, and the S&L's went under. what your'e suggesting is something opposite. Low yields, higher rates to borrow. in some ways that seems to fit our current situation, where consumer credit is still active, but there is little business demand. i just don't see consumer credit going away. imagine a GSE for consumer credit.
obviously were in a bear market for credit, credit is dirt cheap, and has no value whatsoever. its not hard to imagine. the mechanics puzzle me, since credit is really, or can be separate from economic reality. as the current keynesian policy demands more credit (deficit spending at the government level) when economic activity slows down.
Your post is silly. It assumes that our beloved leaders would somehow be prevented from simply printing enough physical cash to fund the full $2 trillion the FDIC insures. What would stop them? If the apocalyptic scenario you predict does come to pass, a $2 trillion cash printing would be a small hurdle to jump.
1255, or 1262 for bounce.
Nice call!
Added to my DOG position upon the new low. Ready for a ramp out of nowhere, but still it was the prudent thing to do.
Nasdaq is now lower for 2011. So much for QE2 doing anything at all, except fucking over everyone except the top 5%. Fuck you Ben.
And I bought some June DIA 77 puts back in March, any chance they end in the money?? Lol. I've still got a week left.
wow, its really taking a dump now.
i love red candles
What is really interesting to me is that after that well timed rumor knocked down Gold before the open in the face of the stock selling and rising dollar Gold is slowly recovering.
Very interesting.
1254.50 on the /es daily, if it closes below that it validates a down trend, thats my personal opinion, a mixture of elliot wave, and about 10 years of reading watching and making and losing money on the /es.
Looks like these forecasts of DJIA 2011-2012 just get better every day:
April 26 with a link to Feb 6th forecast:
http://saposjoint.net/Forum/viewtopic.php?f=14&t=2626&st=0&sk=t&sd=a&sta...
I'M CALLING $1172 THE BERNANKE STOP! that is the december lows of last year. at that point, he will give the Infla-mil bottle back to the baby.
you may say "that is a lonnnng way down though." yep. it is. and i dont doubt it can't be hit within a month.
1150, 1200 sometime late summer. will need a couple earnings before? to show slowdown
I know FAZ has been a piece of crap the last 2 years but maybe a sea change. Good place to be since the start of the month. Failed banks first then bust the banksters.
This is one sick market.
I'll put a bid in at 1012 on the S&P by August....
anyone welcome to my s and P chart
david has sent you a Stock Chart from FreeStockCharts.com. Click below to view it.
http://www.freestockcharts.com?emailChartID=467477a0-1990-4d4a-aead-928deba036e3
Message from david
my s and p chart, sorry, messy, I ile to use speed lines, horizontal lines ? entry trade points. long term back to baseline red channel
If it breaks 1160 I'd be flat with some precious metals. If it breaks 1110 I'd be all cash with maybe a 10-20% short position. Breaking 1110 means something has gone seriously wrong and the Fed can no longer print money fast enough to counteract deflation. That's ouch time. Could have bank holidays, a new currency. Gold/silver might plunge to half their value but might also be the only fungible currency available. So who knows. That's all unknown territory. Good luck trying to find an open gas station or grocery store under martial law, and good luck trying to conduct a transaction in currency, species or barter.