This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.
Ten Things That Would Turn Rosie Bullish, And A Realistic Read On Today's GDP Data
One of the world's most realistic people (which for some reason the permabulls take as an indication of extreme bearishness: which is fine - after all they themselves live in an imaginary world populated with market marking unicorns and benign computer programs), David Rosenberg has shared ten things that would make him bullish. Alas reading through these gives one the impression that Hades would first turn endothermic before any of these actually were to come true. And for some more practical views from Rosie, we also include his spot on interpretation of today's GDP data.
I was recently asked to provide a list of developments that would make me more bullish on the macro and market outlook. Here are a few:
1. Initial jobless claims below 400k on a sustained basis. This would lead to job growth strong enough to generate organic wage growth.
2. Improvement in housing inventories to a 5-6 months’ supply backdrop. This would help establish a floor under home prices.
3. Signs of a turnaround in the money multiplier, money velocity and the ratio of commercial bank non-liquid assets/total assets. Any sign that the debt deleveraging cycle has run its course.
4. A new "killer app" or some major technological breakthrough would be nice.
5. A sustained decline in oil prices that is induced by new supplies (or peace in the Mideast?) as opposed to demand destruction would act as a de facto tax cut.
6. Structural economic reforms in the world's "surplus saving" countries like China, India and Germany that stimulate their domestic demand, and hence bolster our exports and reduce the global reliance on the U.S. as the consumer of last resort, would be a huge plus.
7. A peaking out in the personal savings rate (the sooner we get to 6%-8%, the better) – get to a level consistent with pent-up demand.
8. Consumer confidence closer to 100 (typical of expansion) than the current 50 reading.
9. An end to the steep cutbacks at the state and local government level.
10. New and more effective political leadership globally – could the Cameron victory in the UK be a leading indicator towards fiscal probity?
And here is Rosie's take on today's most important economic data point:
The economy underperformed expectations in the second quarter with the initial estimate of real GDP growth coming in at a 2.4% annual rate. The revisions to the back-data also showed the Great Recession to be even greater than initially thought with the economic loss now totaling 4.1% from 3.7% previously. And the revisions also reveal a policy- and inventory-induced recovery that is now losing steam at a faster rate than was thought before, especially with respect to consumer spending – the 2.4% GDP pace is down from 3.7% in the first quarter and 5% in the fourth quarter of last year.
There are legions of economists out there who claim that it is normal to see the economy take a breather at this stage of the cycle, but in truth, what is “normal” in the context of a post-WWII recovery is that four quarters into it, real GDP expands at over a 6% annual rate. That puts 2.4% into a certain perspective. And with the revisions now showing the downturn deeper, the level of economic activity in real terms is still 1% below the pre-recession peak. Again, when you look back at 55 years worth of post-war data, what is normal 2-1/2 years after a recession begins is that by now we are at a new peak already (breaking above the prior high in GDP by 8%, on average).
The big story in the second quarter as has been the case for much of the past year was the contribution from inventories – there was a “build” of $75.7 billion and this added over a percentage point to headline GDP growth. This follows a “build” of $44 billion in the first quarter so this is no longer the case that companies are merely reducing the pace of inventory withdrawal. Businesses actually added to their stockpiles at the fastest rate in five years. And with sales lagging behind, this inventory contribution is likely to fade fast in coming quarters. Real final sales – representing the rest of GDP (excluding inventories) – came in at a paltry 1.3% annual rate last quarter and has averaged 1.2% since the economy hit rock bottom a year ago in what is clearly the weakest revival in recorded history.
Normally, real final sales are expanding at closer to a 4% annual rate in the year after a recession officially ends. Then again, we haven’t heard anything official just yet about the one that began in December 2007 – and so the fact that it is averaging at around one-third that typical pace in the face of unprecedented policy stimulus is rather telling. And frightening.
Looking at the components of GDP, it appears as though the economy is set to slow even further and a flattening in Q3 and perhaps even contraction by Q4, barring some positive exogenous shock, cannot be ruled out. First, one of the primary contributors to the renewal in economic growth, business capital spending, which has expanded at a double-digit annual rate for three quarters in a row – expanding at a 22% annual rate in Q2 – is starting the current quarter at a pace that is closer to high single-digit growth. That alone may trim a halfpercentagepoint from headline growth this quarter.
With durable goods inventories-to-sales ratios rising to eight-month highs and most manufacturing diffusion indices rolling over, it would stand to reason that the inventory contribution to growth is over. Though to be fair, that will also mean that the import boom will subside and provide some offset (foreign trade actually subtracted 2.8 percentage points from GDP growth last quarter). The government sector added 0.9 percentage points to second-quarter GDP growth with an apparent seasonal skew from defense spending and there was a rare increase in state & local spending, which is hardly going to be repeated this quarter as the budgetary cutbacks deepen. The housing tax credits triggered – get this – a 28% annualized surge in residential construction in the second quarter and while a tiny share of the economy now, this still added 0.6 percentage points to the headline. All the incoming data point to a huge reversal in the real estate sector in the current quarter.
In the final analysis, it is the consumer that is key. With a 70% share of GDP, even a tepid 1.6% annualized growth rate in Q2 – the consensus was looking for 2.4% – can end up adding 1.2 percentage points to GDP growth (which is almost as much a contribution as a 22% surge in capital spending).
But after back-to-back months of declining retail sales and consumer confidence running at half the level it usually does in the context of an economic expansion, the data are pointing to virtual stagnation in household spending this quarter. In fact, what really came to light in the revisions to the data was just how lacklustre the pace of consumer spending has been over the past year – so much so, in fact, that the savings rate is now estimated to have risen to 6.2% in the second quarter from 5.5% in the first (revised sharply higher than the prior estimate of 3.5%). We have long highlighted consumer frugality as crucial deflationary secular theme and the revisions to the savings rate go a long way towards bolstering that view – underscored by the near-0% annualized trend in the pricedeflator for Gross Domestic Purchases last quarter.
So even though the second quarter corporate earnings season was decent, one reason why the equity market is struggling of late is because you can only drive and gaze through the rear-view mirror for so long. At some point, you have to look through the front window, and the prospects for a double-dip or some facsimile thereof were bolstered, not hindered, by the contours of the second quarter GDP report.
If indeed, the inventory cycle is behind us, then what we have on our hands is an underlying baseline trend in GDP of 1.2% at an annual rate. And if we are correct in our assumption that the looming withdrawal of fiscal stimulus at the federal level and the cutbacks at the state and local government level subtract 1.5% from growth in the coming year, then it begs the question: How exactly does the economy escape a renewed moderate contraction over the next four to six quarters, barring some unforeseen positive boost? In turn, how does a strong possibility of such a contraction square with consensus views of a 35% surge in corporate profits to new record highs as early as next year? The answers to these questions are as painful as they are obvious.
Perhaps it bears pointing out that one may consider adjusted Rosie's new frugality concept: as Bloomberg pointed out, US consumers are only frugal if they can default on existing payment obligations. Because buying iPads while broke is not quite the frugal behavior one would expect out of rational, or in fact even normal, consumers (although it confirms what we have been saying for about a year now, that any marginal purchasing power in the US exists only courtesy of defaulting on mortgages, credit cards and other deferred payment plans by the evaporating middle class).
»
- 18609 reads
- Printer-friendly version
- Send to friend
- advertisements -
And here's your answer:
http://www.pinetree.net/humor/thermodynamics.html
Tyler,
As an investor, I could see why you would want a bullish or bearish bias toward the market. As a trader its best to focus on market internals and TA.
Wow Tyler, as an engineer to see you use a proper technical term to describe a cold hell. My respect has gone up even more.
Anyone interested in taking a step, albeit very small, to get something off the drawing board?
I've been thinking about a sticker, bumper size, that identifies American Patriots. I think that includes a large majority of the ZH community. But wouldn't directly identify said patriot as a member of ZH.
Personally, I'd like to be driving down the road and give a thumbs up to the person next to me. It's a start.
keep it simple, but identify two main themes - "patriot" (someone who cares and understands what is happening in this country) and one other word. A word that tells the oligarchy that we are on to them (I could use some help here). I'm thinking of some reverse psyops like, "dumb" perhaps. Dumb Patriot. Dumb may not be the word, but "they" do consider us as some form of dumb.
I use the the avatar "Village Idiot" because it acknowledges right up front that I may be, and sometimes am, the VI. But you can't use it against me because I am the VI, after all. We both know. That is the key - one word that represents the power of the people, and another word that signifies a mutual understanding that, to the contrary, we aren't dumb.
I need a little help developing this, though, but hopefully you get the idea. I would be privileged to contribute any way I can, financially or otherwise.
I hope this idea gets some traction - I really would like to be running down the road and give a big thumbs up to my fellow Dumb? Patriot.
I'll probably post this around the site and see what happens. Cheers.
EDIT: "Oligarchy" may not represent those who are trying to take us down, for you. Feel free to replace with whomever you identify with.
I think the word you are looking for to go with Patriot is Inactive.
I think the word you are looking for to go with Patriot is Inactive.
No doubt, that is the current state of affairs. So let's get a reminder out there - there is an alternative, and we have embraced it. Thanks for responding.
While this is a very noble idea VI it seems very odd coming from you. On one hand you call yourself a patriot and call to arms all the other patriots.
On the other hand you support the nomination of shills like Yellen, Raskin - Bloom and Diamond to the FED.
Are you really a Partoit VI or just pretending?
Hey HJ,
You and I are fighting two different battles my man. I suggest that you go back to our last "have at it" and read my post (last in the thread). Then, go and read the the 12 pages of posts I have thrown up in the last 10 months.
I am a religious and political atheist. And I could give a gnats ass over who was elected for any poitical position of power, right now. If you think we still have something to talk about, please come on by. It's all "noble." Take care.
well done. Thanks.
American Funds, Fidelity, Vanguard, Franklin Templeton, that's 4 trillion bet long...their current redemption rate is 10 - 12%, that means each month they HAVE to sell about $40 BILLION in shares...
Right now things aren't 'that' bad and they are still cornered into forced selling to keep up with the demands of their shareholder redemptions...the population is aging after all, and at 70.5 you have to take your money out of retirement plans....now wait for the first manic panic...let's see how well the market holds up...as these big fish are forced to sell their very large cumbersome positions in SP 500 and DOW components...
Reality can only be postponed not altered in form. When reality is realized, this will get fun, fast.
$40 billion a month? are you sure? where's that retirement cash going to? it would be noticeable somewhere, somehow.
Where's it going? To food, housing or gold for the pensioners. Pensioners doesn't speculate with the money they have to live on. Also, if the numbers aren't staggering, remember that the retiring generation, the baby boomers, is huge.
Where is it going...? I'll tell you EXACTLY where it is going. I have two late 60'ish parents/inlaw who went to cash in their retirement accounts/401k's this past January. They could not believe their luck that the stock market came back so strong in '09. They KNOW they got lucky and they are OUT!
They are working with their tax prepairers to get as much as they can into their hands as fast as the tax man will allow.
Why..?
To simply protect what wealth they have left to live on for the next 20+ years. Investment time is OVER and it's all about wealth protection, cutting expences, hoping to keep thier homes, living with some comfort and dignity.
They have purchaced some gold but 90% is straight up cash to live on.
Platinum, bastards!
Hope, comrades!!!!!!!
deleted - bong hit too big.
That may be well be the first time that excuse has been used on ZH. Good work, sir.
Village Idiot - My new favorite ZH contributor...
I miss some of Chambawamba's classic rants though... sigh
bit early, lad, isn't it? - Ned
Even I would have to reluctantly agree - thanks for the compliment though.
I'd like to see 500 pixies dance on the head of a pin while getting a blowjob from Vanessa Del Rio, but I find that unlikely to happen - any of the above would be a welcome change, though
and back to the action, LOL - cnbc mystically covering bilge perfume; now on to obama "saving" the auto unions with your tax $
5 things to turn me bullish:
5) Every TBTF bank CEO, CFO, COO was arrested and thrown in prison
4) Bernanke arrested for Treason
3) Geithner is admitted to a mental retardation facility
2) Pelosi's plane goes down
1) Obama resigns
LOL
Re 1, what I find amazing about you yanks is that you can find it in you to blame 20 odd years, starting with Ronnie, of fiscal ineptitude on a guy who has been in power 20 months.Now far be it for me too intrude on private grief but it seems that the last incumbent of the office and indeed his pappy and their co horts were maybe slightly money grabbing whores (just my impression of course) were as this guy has been left holding the shit end of the stick but somehow its his fault, it just does not compute.I understand the Democrats are seen as left wing but as a Brit the conecpt of left wing in the US is a mile away from a left winger in Europe, I see him as a guy trying to do the right things but at the wrong time.
What I find amazing about you Red Coats is that you all think "Ronnie" was some dumb cowboy and that Obama is an enlightened progressive. You probably admire him because he's done everything he can to make our country more like your completely failed empire.
Cheers.
the Brits are even more racially guilty than we are.
Hell, they have permitted sharia as THE law in their country in places, tolerated polygamy and statutory rape so long as perpetrated by muslims, even gone so far as to allow muslim women working in operating rooms to wear UNSANITARY full sleeves instead of following health codes.
This isn't Cecil Rhodes' England anymore. Britons are now utterly pathetic. No wonder their women think they're all a bunch of wankers
Why cast stones when Britain has become a Big Brother version of California...
You don't have to be a republican (I'm not) to know that Obummer is just another Fascist figurehead, bought and sold and sent to "represent" Korporate Amerika.
W. was a LUDICROUS figure (Picture a portrait of Jefferson...OK, now picture W. in that photo holding the phone upside-down) but we NEEDED a Statesman after that...A "jesus" to kick the moneychangers out of the American temple...
we didn't quite make it....
instead we find ourselves in the FIRM grip of "the Firm™"
spot on, unfortunately most people here don't understand this, all people care about is right now - politicians don't get elected for the down-the-road consequences of their actions - people want instant results without thought to how the problem occurred or if it is even prudent to pursue a quick fix - That said, Obama still is not the change I voted for, he did not cause today's issues but is not altering from those ways enough to effectively change them
Fuck the government, long live the USA
P.S. Having a corrupt government doesn't help either (thanks Supreme Court), they are just as corrupt as any terrible government except that their corruption isn't as suppresive as other countries where everything is state-owned (see Niger Delta revenue in Nigeria), have to keep the minions happy...
It, I would agree that problems started along time ago. The trouble in your argument is Obama is NOT doing anything right. He is just continuing the trend of the prior village idiot in office. Spend money that doesn't exist and supporting crony capitalism. So tell me, It, when is Iceland-on-the-Thames going to occur?
Sorry I've taken so long to reply but prayer time was on then the wife had to arse fuck me and the time just flies when that happens(see above)
We can only comment as we see from a far in the same way Maggie was appreciated in the US and hated by most of the UK, it has nothing to do with empires or who can piss up the wall the furthest.
I happen to think that Obama still flies well for the US abroad and on that basis is an asset, was just interested to understand specifically what the guy has done wrong.
You probably thought Gordon Brown was an asset when we all saw him as a complete numb nut with serious social and personality problems.
As for Iceland-on-Thames, my own view is that we dont go down till you do.
No, I've thought Gordon Brown was an idiot since selling Britain's gold at near bottom gold prices.
What has Obama done wrong?
1. Promised transparency in government yet signed legislation on health care and financial reform that reduce transparency plus deliberately cut off the media during the Gulf Oil spill. Transparency apparently means something different to Barrack than to everyone else.
2. Claims to speak for the common man then screws them over to the tune (so far) of $3.7 TRILLION dollars in bank bailouts to super wealthy corporations.
3. Continues running record deficits (Bush's last deficit was about $400 billion - we'll never see a deficit that small again in our lifetimes) of over $1.4 TRILLION per year.
4. Continues to allow the GSEs to exist, despite their utter and complete failure and the fact that taxpayers have had to pump hundreds of billions of dollars into those institutions as well.
5. Did a "special" bankruptcy for GM that was solely aimed at protecting the unions (not the individual workers but the union itself) and violated over 200 years of US contract law in the process.
6. Promised to get us out of Iraq and Afghanistan and instead has us permanently in Iraq, increasing our presence in Afghanistan and has opened an entirely new war in northern Pakistan.
7. Failed to force his attorney general Eric Holden to get off his lazy ass and at least prosecute ONE fraud incident from Wall Street (when there are thousands that have been documented). Compare this to the Reagan/elder Bush era when they prosecuted thousands of corrupt Savings and Loan managers and sent them to jail and cleared up the entire S&L crisis inside of 18 months instead of letting it linger for 3+ years (and counting).
8. Handled the Gulf Oil spill in a manner even worse than Bush handled New Orleans after the Katrina hurricane. Even I didn't think this was possible yet Obama has shown that he really is this incompetent.
I could go on and on but Obama is not what his rhetoric says. Obama is, instead, a corporate shill. He's as owned by corporate interests as Bush was or McCain would have been. And no, McCain would have not been one ounce better. Both parties in the US are fundamentally corrupt and beholden to the corporations that own them. It's just different corporations own each party.
Outstanding answer, thanks, I could not possibly comment on each point as I would display my ignorance, but in one comment you made at the end ,
Obama is, instead, a corporate shill
Leads me too the question, and its a genuine one, who was the last American president who was not?
NIXON! lol
Excellent list. About "transparency" the first E.O. emitted by Barry was to further seal up Presidential Records. Hilarious!
http://www.whitehouse.gov/the_press_office/ExecutiveOrderPresidentialRec...
You claim that obama is an asset as he "flies well for the US abroad". Exactly who does he fly well with? The common citizen of Euroland? Who cares, that moron has shown exactly who he is, to the powers in control of those countries abroad and yes he may be an asset to them and their countries but he most assuredly is not to those of us citizens in the USA whom you claim he is an asset for. In 20 months he has exponentially increased the damage that has accumulated long before RR took office until Bush left. The man is an epic fail as the leader of the United States of America.
That fact that he may be a rock star figure in euroland doesn't mean much here in the States where he has broken faith with the American people. I would be simply thrilled if he would resign his office and go run for something on the Continent. He appears to want to make the U.S. more like Europe. No offense intended but the majority of voters here do not want to be more like Europe just as Europeans do not want the EU to be more like the U.S. Viva la difference!
It's always nice to hear from the Tavistock Institute. Now you can collect your OBE from Her Majesty and a carbon offset voucher from Lord Rothschild.
The problems may have begun prior RR, but the incumbent, in 20 months, has had more than enough time to cause arrests and seek convictions for obvious law breakers.
There has been more than enough time for the removal of the problem generators and their replacement with problem solvers.
I do not see him doing 'the right things'.
Feel free to add:
- Greenspan arrested
- All ratings agency heads charged under RICO laws
- Last 3 presidential officeholders (and their attendant lickspittles) facing truth and reconcialition hearings (or was it lynchings? I always get those two confused)
- Defenestration of at least 500 members of Congress
- Military deflation
A further quip:
In my wacky view of finance, you have to actually produce before you consume, so I'd like to see Consumers now referred to as Producers or Productive citizens. And some real infrastructure would be nice too. And no, a $1 billion embassy in Iraq is NOT useful.
What, no...
End the "Fed" thieves?
Abolish IRS thugs?
Fix ZH captcha?
9. An end to steep cutbacks at the state and local government level.
I can endure quite a bit of pain to see this continue...Just sayin'
Another source of marginal spending by consumers is the continued drawdown of mutual fund holdings frequently highighted here on ZH. As is typical with the American consumer, instead of really cutting back on superfluous spending, paying down consumer debt, and maintaining an adequate financial safety net, the consumer just slows down on current savings rates and even draws down exisiting savings, defaults on consumer debt, and keeps buying those "just gotta have it" toys. When the end is reached they will then look to the government for a bailout. In the end, there will be no bailout forthcoming and all exothermic hell will break loose.
I'm glad to have read Rosie's GDP assesment. The numbers have been so bad for so long I'd forgotten what GOOD economic numbers really are...
Endothermic? Shoulda looked that one up first.
Mystical:
What brings atoms and molecules together, what separates them? The opposing forces of cohesion and of dispersion both spring from Fohat. What but the dynamic energy of life turns a germ into a foetus in the mother's womb, and later on into a baby which becomes a man or a woman? What brings about old age, decay and death? The destructive aspect of that same energic force. What brings the body daily from the waking to the sleeping state and from the sleeping to the waking state? The unbalance caused by the impact of the universal life-energy upon individual energy. When the equilibrium is restored, it wakes up the individual for another day of work. So all growth and expansion, all decay and destruction, the play of opposing forces through a change of polarity, are brought about through one or another aspect of Fohat—the great Transformer. Thus, naturally, life is looked upon as a drama, a dance, or a song, where each being is expected to play his part, to dance or to sing in tune with the Infinite. This can only be done through a clear understanding of Deity in its triple aspect of Creator-Preserver-Destroyer, or Spirit-Matter with the connecting link of Fohat.
From here:
http://www.teosofia.com/Mumbai/7208fohat.html
A little deflection of attention, for your own benediction, release from affliction AND a jolly good read to boot!
Brain, hard a starboard!
Aye Aye Sir!
ORI
http://aadivaahan.wordpress.com
I recognize that as the correct answer to one of the questions on the final exam that Obstetricians have to take before they can be licensed to do in-vitro fertilization. Good one Oh.
;-)
ORI
http://aadivaahan.wordpress.com
This'll mark the end of my spamming playlists for today :)
Casual Friday (that i've posted a couple times before): http://www.youtube.com/view_play_list?p=D995657329C4795A
and a larger playlist featuring more dark style tracks called The Source: http://www.youtube.com/view_play_list?p=7BC8462BBFDD9D02
Have a kick ass weekend y'all :D
Nice list in a perfect world, but if we hit those levels we would be at a peak.
I would like to know the S&P 500 contribution to profit gains % for the year and quarter from lower interest rates. Many companies have a 50/50 split between long term debt and short term debt. With decreasing interest rates, higher levered companies (like banks) and those with more short term debt should be doing well just on the decrease in interest expense. I haven't seen this yet, but would suspect it is contributing to profits.
An alternative metric for assessing economic trends is whether the hookers are getting better looking. According to this sample, the economy's going down like a prom queen after a couple of Red Bull and vodkas.
http://www.eros-guide.com/files/176728.htm
http://www.eros-guide.com/files/176990.htm
http://www.eros-guide.com/files/176984.htm
http://www.eros-guide.com/files/177722.htm
http://www.eros-guide.com/files/177417.htm
The ultimate endothermic system is the US economy, because it requires external debt and credit in order to sustain its endothermic process. The endothermic US economy consumes more resources (input) than what comes out (output).
Contrast this with the exothermic economies of Asia, incl. China, where savings, capital investment, and hard work produce excess resources (output) over and above the inputs.
The earth, being a closed system, takes the excess ouput from the exothermic Asia, and consumes it in the endothermic USA
Is that you Niederhoffer? :P
Chemba's post reminds me of a funny story I read:
"Dr. Schambaugh, University of Oklahoma School of Chemical Engineering, Final Exam question.
Dr. Schambaugh is known for asking questions such as, "why do airplanes fly?" on his final exams. His one and only final exam question in May 1997 for his Momentum, Heat and Mass Transfer II class was: "Is hell exothermic or endothermic? Support your answer with proof."
Most of the students wrote proofs of their beliefs using Boyle's Law or some variant. One student, however, wrote the following:
The student, Tim Graham, got the only A."
I thought that was too funny to be true. Unfortunately, I was right. Snopes.com states that it's not true. But it's still amusing.
As the NWO would have it. Destroy the middle class and freedom via the endothermal US economy, and the world is theirs without the fight.
steve liesman school for kids who cant lie good
The future is looking bright.
No transparency at the SEC or FED now with Financial Reform, so what?
Pain will be administered to the population, from the privacy of regulatory actions.
Ten things that would turn Leo & CNBC bearish:
1. The majority of Zerohedge is finally turning bullish
2. Republicans winning the elections and starting to cut spending
3. Bernanke resigns as chief of the Fed
4. Exxon Mobil buys up all Chinese solar companies
5. No quantitative easing part II, III, IV & V
6. An audit of the complete financial system, including the Fed
7. Paper money only worth 0.00001
8. When intelligent people start accepting their lies
9. China buys all western pension funds
10. CNBC has lost all its viewers
I agree with you except point 2. Republicans spend just as much as Democrats, their priorities are slightly different. How much did we spend in the clusterf*ck known as Iraq?
let's do a little thought experiment. Look around you at bond yields. They seem to agree with Dick Chainy.
Secondly, supposing the end is nigh...what resource in the world is most critical to have your army atop? The "cost" of Iraq is really nothing. We get to invent currency reserves like Spain mined gold to support its empire. And we're "investing" that in a giant military presence in the ME.
Supposing fiat currencies all did collapse and paper had to be backed. We'd be able to back it ours with what used to be others' oil reserves. It's really as starkly simple as that.
If shit hits fans, we will see how "winnable" these wars really were if you fight war like Sherman or Pershing did.
Wouldn't be a hell of a lot cheaper to invest in an alternative? Let that sh*thole part of the world go to where it belongs, hell. It also would not cost 4000+ American lives in the process.
Well, yeah - that's certainly been the history.
But the list was about what could happen, not what will. The Stupid Party getting actual fiscal responsibility religion is, alas, about as likely to happen as any one of Rosie's 10-things.
The Yen, through the FXY, has been a very good indicator for the daily direction of stocks...The FXY looks ready to break out of an ascending triangle....
DONE!
1. Initial jobless claims below 400k on a sustained basis. This would lead to job growth strong enough to generate organic wage growth.
PEOPLE NO LONGER QUALIFY. THAT TAKES IT DOWN REAL LOW.
2. Improvement in housing inventories to a 5-6 months’ supply backdrop. This would help establish a floor under home prices.
FEDERAL GOVERNMENT REFUSES TO LET ANY MORE HOUSES COME ON THE MARKET. THAT BRINGS DOWN THE 'SUPPLY.'
3. Signs of a turnaround in the money multiplier, money velocity and the ratio of commercial bank non-liquid assets/total assets. Any sign that the debt deleveraging cycle has run its course.
FIDDLE AROUND THE WITH THE FIGURES SOME MORE.
4. A new "killer app" or some major technological breakthrough would be nice.
CELL PHONES ARE ACTUALLY IMPLANTED IN THE BRAIN.
5. A sustained decline in oil prices that is induced by new supplies (or peace in the Mideast?) as opposed to demand destruction would act as a de facto tax cut.
WE'LL MAKE IT CRASH.
6. Structural economic reforms in the world's "surplus saving" countries like China, India and Germany that stimulate their domestic demand, and hence bolster our exports and reduce the global reliance on the U.S. as the consumer of last resort, would be a huge plus.
WE'LL REJIGGER THAT TO THE EFFECT THAT IT'S ALREADY BEEN DONE. PEOPLE ARE STILL EATING, AREN'T THEY? IT'S ALREADY BEEN DONE.
7. A peaking out in the personal savings rate (the sooner we get to 6%-8%, the better) – get to a level consistent with pent-up demand.
THERE IS NO PENT-UP DEMAND, BECAUSE THERE IS NO NATURAL DEMAND FLOOR.
8. Consumer confidence closer to 100 (typical of expansion) than the current 50 reading.
TALK TO ECRI. THEY GOT YOU COVERED ON THIS ONE.
9. An end to the steep cutbacks at the state and local government level.
COMING SOON. JUST GOTTA GET RID OF THAT PENSION THINGY.
10. New and more effective political leadership globally – could the Cameron victory in the UK be a leading indicator towards fiscal probity?
NO.
NEXT? CAN I BE PRESIDENT NOW?
And when all these things come to pass where do you think that S&P is going to be trading and who do you think will be buying at the top?
You don't get paid in this game to wait for it to become painfully obvious that some new economic trend is in place.
BTW the new killer ap is fracing. Remember just a few short years ago when greenspan and others were predicting great shortages of nat gas and soaring prices? Guess what, the new ceiling for nat gas is probably around $6 though we have not been there in a while. That's $36 crude on a BTU equivalent basis. Natural gas production in the US is UP 10% in the last 5 years and prices are falling. This is a huge windfall for US manufacturing which is energy dependant.
This market is gay.
"This market is gay."
I don't think many people are feeling happy about the market right now.
Buy the dips make free money till November, so easy a cave man can do it.
The Obama administration needs to dust off some of FDR's policies to have a chance at a turn to bullish sentiment:
1) Pay states to tear down empty housing stock
2) Jail farmers that grow crops in excess of allowed quotas
3) Establish a Civilian Self-Esteem Corps (Like the CCC, but no work necessary)
4) 100 year mortgages
5) If all else fails, start W.W.III
how about "Goldman Sachs and other big banks no longer allowed to take positions in the markets"
until those scumbags are out of the game, there is no reason at all to play
deleted due to misplacement
Check out this relating article at Phil's Stock World
http://www.philstockworld.com/2010/07/30/gdphriday-low-expectations-could-make-for-a-good-day/
Updated DOW charts:
http://stockmarket618.wordpress.com