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TEPCO Confirms Reactor 4 Spent Fuel Pool Is Now An Uncontrolled, Open Air Fission Process
It had been a while since we had a factual update (as opposed to just lies and spin) from Fukushima. Courtesy of Kyodo, we now know that what was speculated by some as true, and rebutted by most as mere scaremongering, is in fact, fact. "Some of the spent nuclear fuel rods stored in the No. 4 reactor building
of the crisis-hit Fukushima Daiichi power plant were confirmed to be
damaged, but most of them are believed to be in sound condition, plant
operator Tokyo Electric Power Co. said Wednesday." Naturally, in one month we will learn that most of them are damaged, and in two months, that each and every one has been demolished. "The firm known as TEPCO said its analysis of a 400-milliliter water
sample taken Tuesday from the No. 4 unit's spent nuclear fuel pool
revealed the damage to some fuel rods in such a pool for the first time,
as it detected higher-than-usual levels of radioactive iodine-131,
cesium-134 and cesium-137." These confirm an ongoing fission reaction. In a tremendously ironic development, the No. 4 reactor, halted for a regular inspection before last month's
earthquake and tsunami disaster, had all of its 1,331 spent fuel rods
and 204 unused fuel rods stored in the pool for the maintenance work. Unfortunately, the entire pool ended up being damaged following the quake and the subsequent explosion, in essence nullifying any protection that the containment dome would have provided. As the picture from the Asahi Shimbun below shows, the damage from overhanging structures which have subsequently fallen into the fuel pool likely means that there could well be an uncontrolled, if weak, fission reaction currently going on in the reactor 4 SFP (where the water temperature is currently 90 degrees) unprotected by the elements due to the complete destruction of the Reactor 4 shell.
(picture via of saposjoint)
More from Kyodo:
The cooling period for 548 of the 1,331 rods was shorter than that for others and the volume of decay heat emitted from the fuel in the No. 4 unit pool is larger compared with pools at other reactor buildings.
According to TEPCO, radioactive iodine-131 amounting to 220 becquerels per cubic centimeter, cesium-134 of 88 becquerels and cesium-137 of 93 becquerels were detected in the pool water. Those substances are generated by nuclear fission.
The government's Nuclear and Industrial Safety Agency said the confirmed radioactive materials were up to 100,000 times higher than normal but that the higher readings may have also been caused by the pouring of rainwater containing much radioactivity or particles of radiation-emitting rubble in the pool.
The roof and the upper walls of the No. 4 reactor building have been blown away by a hydrogen explosion and damaged by fires since the disaster struck the plant. The water level in the spent fuel pool is believed to have temporarily dropped.
In the meantime the latest drywell readiation reading in Reactor 1 is still "out of commission"
(Source: METI)
And lastly, a demonstration from Fairewinds' Arnie Gunderson who shows how the Zircalloy uranium pellets mostly likely melted and shattered, possibly penetrating through the floor of reactors 2 and 3.
Nuclear engineer Arnie Gundersen demonstrates how Fukushima's fuel rods melted and shattered from Fairewinds Associates on Vimeo.
(h/t Robert Breen)»
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I cannot concur. Far higher than normal levels of these isotopes are evidence. They are not proof, nor are they conclusive. They are merely evidence.
If there are stray neutron emissions, I would not wager these came from reactors that are in containers intended to provide neutron shielding (otherwise the things would kill everybody nearby).
I think "ongoing fission" is a gross misnomer. There is at most sporadic fission in the nature of the types of criticality accidents which have periodically killed nuke plant workers over the years. If the rods have been moved too close to one another and unborated water is introduced to the pile, fission is certainly not unexpected. It happens sometimes even in the NORMAL mode of operation of these pools.
If you intend to say that these isotopes provide no evidence of "ongoing" or "current" fission, then I agree.
ah Trav, now you're engaging in binary thinking here.
Fission is not on or off, it's all about the concentration, not just the distance, or geometry, or transient enegy level.
As I expect you know, natural reactors have formed where natural uranium oxide ore was at a high enough deposition comcentration that it self-reacted and swapped neutrons for hundreds or thousands of years, and created significant natural plutonium in the process. (google Oklo reactor)
Recriticality is just the extreme-end of a spectrum of fission potentil that's occurring continuously if you have several tons homogenised in melt and poor moderation.
A hot highly homogenised melt of corium and concrete WILL still fission and make more heat above existing daughter product decay and activation decay. Every flash just activates more.
The danger is a system that is just dilute enough to not have recriticality states (much) but just sits there decaying AND making new daughter products, and thermal vibes, for years ... Like BWR foundation will provide.
If it's thermally insulated you have a big problem brewing because it can remobilise anytime water is re-introduced. If you keep flooding it indefinitely you get poisoned anyway.
It is the WATER in the reactors that does the shielding. No water (it only takes abouth 4 to 6 inches to do the job) between you and the neutron source, no shielding.
And yes recriticality has been intermittent. I would expect that from a pile of junk.
As you point out there is no conclusive evidence. So you may be correct. But at this point I doubt it. The only criticality I'd bet on is reactor #1 which appears to have core on the floor of a largely intact containment structure. I believe the reactor vessel there has melted through. With the top of the vessel (the cap) intact. That is indicated by the fact that it can hold some pressure (on the order of 100 psia).
Fukushima nuclear power plant accident. Farms in the range of 10 kilometers
Video link •
Many cattle are dying ...
If those cattle are dying of starvation what does that tell you about the displaced people, and where is that video?
A sick and strange situation.
Another one ....
Busby: 400000 to develop cancer in 200 km radius of Fukushima
Are they dying of starvation or radiation?
lack of water - dehydated - systems shut down
Most likely dying of dehydration.
The cattle are dead.
No farmer would have left them caged.
The farmer is dead.
agreed. But they are also probably irradiated. Or the butcher is dead too.
woah.
Not gona lie, that is kinda' scary.
But it's ok John Paulson said this is bullish for Japan because they will rebuild the area.
For shits and giggles someone send that link to PETA
Those cattle are not sleeping.
They are dead.
The cattle farmer did not leave his farm and leave the beast enclosed.
The cattle farmer is dead.
Those cattle are not dead.
They are resting or perhaps they are stunned. Japanese cattle are known for taking a long nap after shagging.
They are prodigious shaggers.
Agree...you can clearly see more than one of them having a smoke.
FUCK. what a waste
what a disaster
When I saw isotopes other than Iodine I knew they had a core breach. I wonder why the Japanese government (heck the world) allowed the company to try and save the reactor complex for use? I would have buried all the cores and storage pools. Of course hindsight makes me a genius most of the time. The whole world will suffer now with the loss of nuclear power. Friends of mine at Muon's Inc. have been working on a Thorium reactor proposal a more than two years with little face time from DOE. Do you think they will answer the call now ha!
Carlo Rubia was a very very bright guy and I think his muon catalyzed thorium reactor theory, that Chinese are building could be one of the great tools of the world ever.
"I wonder why the Japanese government (heck the world) allowed the company to try and save the reactor complex for use? "
If this is true, it has not been emphasized enough. This explains the stalling and the rest of the f#cking kabuki theater. While people all over the world are being threatened and the Japanese people will be getting cancer, TEPCO is trying to save their investment. Are you sh!tting me????
Those notes in Japanese read:
HOLY SHIT SHERLOCK-YOSHI
well, pretty much this exact scenario and reasoning was inducted here, quite a while ago. apparently, the earthquake cracked the spent fuel pool with all the spent and unused fuel rods. no coolant. no way to contain any hosed stuff. cladding melt = H2 (hydrogen gas) explosion, blowing the living shit outa the top pf the building.
estimates of 5000 degree C. temps. reliable? i can't prove it!
the chain reaction/nuclear fission was thought to be intermittent. now, it is, perhaps intermittent in about 5 places in this mess, at once, and therefore "ongoing". or, ironically, perhaps they hosed in boron water, which could, conceivably, have slowed the neutron escape and helped the mess to go critical. don't know, but both ideas have come from sources which i now trust.
are they saying they repaired the SFP in 4? or that it always held coolant? and now, it's almost hot enuf in there to boil water? really? look at this place! multiples of the Ce-137 vaporized in chernobyl! 2-3 X, at least! 90 degrees C.? well! isn't that special???
maybe others will chime in and help with the thinking.
recently there has been some renewed zH concern about reactors #s 5 & 6, also without coolant for long enuf to get more problematic than publicly acknowledged, even tho not producing electricity on 3.11.11. "shut down". and full of fuel and spent fuel, needing to be cooled, and not having that need met. the temps and damage go up pretty fast when the coolant goes awol. see what they say, next.
I haven't seen any evidence of current criticality at the SFPs. The last decent evidence was for intermittent criticality at #1.
It is bad enough. Which is very bad indeed. No need to make it worse without evidence.
i understand your background and your innocent need for more evidence. we've had many such posters, here, for over a month. there are very few left, btw. please excuse me if i'm wrong and just making this all worse than it really is, ok?
if you've read the posts, here, over that time, good! if not, please visit them. you'll see some great interaction and interesting approaches to this enigma, in a riddle, with almost no one speaking the truth, ever. here, again, we have a page with absolutely conflicting info put out by Tepco about #4. same shit, different day. the japanese are masters at propaganda and subtle clues about how to behave, and this had been happening, time after time, for over a month.
if the information and the processes which lead to what tyler is saying and what slewie is saying do not meet your criteria for evidence, thank you for stating it so clearly. that is fine with me. please go back and review the articles and posts for the last month, if you haven't already. you might understand the "circumstances" a bit more like me, if you do so. i've already read them, and i haven't been shy about what i've been thinking, either. neither has tyler. also quite a few others. we have a permanent record of everything said, here. enjoy!
I have been here since the beginning. Not all the threads. But most of them. I'm a newbie at ZH (18 weeks or so as a poster).
I must say that even with the hysteria of some of the commenters that this is the best major site for news. Tyler (even if his understanding is incomplete) breaks the news fast. And the links in the comments are outstanding.
ok. i've seen you around. working hard, here, too, ok? be careful with the labels, if you would, pls. an honest diff of opinion or POV does not = hysteria. #4 is totally fuked, imo. no fuel in core! the buiding blew up b/c of the SFP. sorry if ya don't like the way that sounds, it's true!
"an honest diff of opinion or POV does not = hysteria."
Right you are slewie. I'm getting sick of reading that word. It is not "hysteria" to worry about the still living and not wait to cry over the dead.
Have to say, this does not seem such a negative bit of info.
Bad news, the fuel rods are damaged. Of course, given the previous hydrogen fires and explosions, that was already known.
Good news, there is enough water in the pool to cover the fuel rods remaining. The water may be radioactive and overheated, at around 90 degrees C, but it indicates the pool is still largely intact.
So the problem likely is a pile of fuel pellets from the damaged fuel rods, collected in a heap at the bottom of the pool, overheating each other rather than getting cooled by circulating water.
Relatively speaking, that still makes pool 4 one of the safer sites in the plant. It is spitting a bit of iodine and cesium, but it is manageable with periodic water injections.
The pool is 4000 ton capacity, the daily water injection is about 200 tons, so it is staying pretty tight.
How much damage do you think these 6 reactors will cause during the 30 years it will take to decommission them? What do you think will happen if there is an earthquake and/or tsunami during that period? How long do you think it will be before the excluded zone can be repopulated?
Thanks in advance.
damage over 30 years? 7X chernobyl. 75 years for about 100 kilometers. just guessing.
there is an enormous amount of spent fuel which had been removed from the pools inside the reactor buildings. there is a separate building, somewhere @ fuk_u, with spent fuel pools, probably 2, and everything is just hunky-dory, with every bit of it, of course.
yeah. wanna buy a bridge? no evidence. about 3 sentences, that i've seen, whatever that's worth. when the first people re-conned the site, their was a "windows in outside storage building out" little blurb.
The End.
When the monsoons shift there is a decent chance the radioactives could take out parts of Tokyo.
well, i certainly would agree that it's gonna be bad news bears from the fallout. many posts here following weather over the weeks, with a couple shifts putting tokyo downwind, already. i think (not positive) in the days immediately after the 11th, tokyo was getting it pretty good.
A slow iodine leak that never stops is a big problem.
Natural decay will take care of I-131 in about 80 days. If there is no new criticality.
It is the longer lived stuff that is the bigger problem.
agreed. in cali, people are advised to let the milk sit till near the use by date to allow for I decay if they are worried.
Milk turns rancid before 80 days. What should I do about cesium?
w/ a 1/2-life of 24 years, that's what's bothering me, too! like mercury, this stuff may be concentrated by the food chain(s). not good! i'm 65. my kids are over 30. my dad's 93. he just outlived his dad, my grampa! i'd like to see if i could make 93 myself! this sure doen't give me extra confidence, but i'm not dead, yet, either!
ernie speaks...
http://vimeo.com/22209827
Tomorrow Obama announces that the ceiling on debt and acceptable radiation will be raised as high as needed.
I'm still surprised that none of the media has brought up the story of Jimmy Carter who commanded the team that help shutdown the runaway Chalk River reactor in the 50's.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chalk_River_Laboratories
http://ottawariverkeeper.ca/news/when_jimmy_carter_faced_radioactivity_h...
the BBC (Bent Broadcasting Corporation) rolled out an 'expert' (crone) yesterday to say how under control Fukushima was and how "effective the response has been".
The response of Tepco and the Japanese Govt has been little short of a complete clown show who have not a fuking clue what to do one day after the other. Pissing on a melting nuclear reactor with a fire engine is not an "effective response", it's a desperate act to make it look like you're doing something when in fact you're all out of options
The bent rotten scum of the BBC continue their propaganda clearing house operations on behalf of Govts worldwide... fuk the fuking BBC
Cover those godam pools.
I spent many decades using the old BBC as a touchstone to go to for news. As much as to use an old shortwave radio back in the technology stone age of the early 80s.
But NOW! The BBC has become a voice of the corporate elite and the British intelligence community. They are whores made all the worse by their about face from honest news brokers to complete whore of the establishment.
I don't listen to a thing these ass clowns say. It is propaganda. They show their true colors by these useful idiots they trot out to tell us all is well at Fukushima.
I find the BBC to be an ass hair better than random MSM news here in the USA. At least, they have pretty pictures.
no story out on zerohedge yet about Goldman Sachs after the close here. but we've been calling that obama will have at it with wall street again really soon. guess it's happening. smells like april 2010: http://www.hedgefundlive.com/blog/thursday-market-expectations-jamie-dimon-gave-us-a-hint-today
Milk in little rock arkansas had the highest levels of radioactive iodine of all samples tested.
Three times the limit allowed for drinking water but under the limit allowed for milk which makes no sense to me. You can find this information online about U.S. government testing and results, but not a single newspaper in arkansas mentioned it.
I havent bought a newspaper in five years. They are worthless. Cover that pool you fucking slants! Radioactive iodine is a gas.
The info for milk contamination that is being misrepresented on some blogs is way wrong...the misinterpretation at least. Some of them are mixing up the water limits for milk limits (people intake more water over a lifetime than milk), and some are taking the numbers (24 pCi/L of Cesium in Hilo) as being above the limit. It is not. The FDA sets the intervention levels on milk, and they are set at 33,000 pCi/L Cesium (Cs-134 + Cs-137) for milk.
I've spent an hour and a half on the EPA webpage (and EPA reports) trying to find where it is stated that the exposure rates are based on lifetime estimates. Nowhere did I find this stated. Please provide me the link.
What I did find were statements like the one pasted below that do affirm that long-term exposure is factored into the risk models. However, the limits set for milk and water are not clearly delineated as based on any temporal frame. I'm still searching and will post what I find and would appreciate any links anyone else has found:
EPA: "Next we use mathematical models to evaluate potential solutions.
"The long lifetimes of many radionuclides,and the complex decay chains, means that in some cases, we have to project potential exposures for hundreds to thousands of years into the future. To make the extremely complex calculations that tell us what is likely to happen to radionuclides in the environment (potentially far into the future), we develop computerized, mathematical models. They take into account many factors:
· decay rates of the radionuclides initially present
· the behavior of these radionuclides in the environment
· decay chain products, their decay rates, and their behavior in the environment
· the type of environment (air, water, rock formations).
http://www.epa.gov/rpdweb00/protect/standards.html#develop
On another note, Arnie Gunderson has a new update and adds fuel to the debate about low-dose radiation by arguing that there significant health effects from TMI.
Here are some links I sent out earlier on twitter:
http://tinyurl.com/3kq8zx7
http://tinyurl.com/3pov53n
http://tinyurl.com/3n64pun
The EPA sets lifetime standards for radioactivity via human consumption, based on cumulative data and estimated consumption of a product (water consumption being much higher than milk). The most important standard is the FDA one, which is the single exposure limit (intervention limit) for a product. Also, one of these links is a Hawaii newspaper article that quotes EPA, one is EPA, the other is FDA.
Ok I checked the links. Water is based on lifespan exposure. No time frames are available for air or milk, just your FDA Intervention Level for diet and milk.
I also found a lot of criticism of EPA standards.
I'm interested in how do you respond to the following charges:
1. there is no safe level of iodonizing radiation (because of the damaging effects on DNA repairs). Tons of research on this plus the impact on pregnant bodies, embryos, susceptible individuals etc.
2. The EPA and NRC standards are based on the ICRP approach, which does not address the effects of internal emitters and assumes "energy is averaged across the whole body or a whole organ."
The alternative to ICRP.
ECRR's 19th March 2011 advice note on Fukushima - the European Committee on Radiation Risk
The short answer is that the nuclear industry, and therefore governments, don't really want clear actionable limits that an average citizen could understand and that are regularly checked and publicly disclosed.
You have to do your own research to educate yourself. If you don't have a related background it will take a day of reading to understand the different measurement systems (becquerals, pico curies, sieverts, millisievers, microsieverts, Rads, etc), the type of radiation, rate of dose or accumulated dose, an internal (consumed or inhaled) or external emitter, etc. ZH has been a great resource for links to explanations.
Ignorance and lack of concern are part of the control mechanisms.
And, I should add that the EPA limit of 3.0 pCi/L is based on drinking milk at this contamination level at average consumption rates over a 70 year lifetime.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mTg3D1PoyUE&feature=player_embedded
Real situation in Fukushima. In Tepco CEO's dream.
Watch till the end!
Interesting view into the mind of Japanese mass culture. This reminds me that the media is keeping bouts of PTSD off the air.
Yeah really. The end was pretty funny.
The picture of Asahi-Shinbun does not show "What happened". This was mis-translated by Sapo's Joint like bellow;
"Picture explains which parts of Metal structures above spent
fuel pool have dropped into it, causing fuel rod damage."
Truth is that this picture is explaining TEPCO's plan to remove used-fuel rods from damaged pool with the cask hanging from mobile crane.
Pretty serious mistranslation :)
ZH got Sapo 'd
Pearl Harbour and the Clash sing Fujiama Mama in Tokyo, how apropos.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jA9ne44POpg&feature=related
Perfect for hibachi cook out. With abandoned cattle running loose in the forbidden zone, a new Japanese delicacy is being discovered: Fukushima Steak. Perfect for surf n turf with local fish.
Worst case scenario that we can only hypothesize until the real truth is finally admitted is...
All the reactors and SFP's are frocked.
Radiation bitchez.
It's like pulling teeth with this govt. and Tepco. They don't want to admit that they can't do anything about this to the world.
Very bullish for the S&P
I take it this isn't good news?
Hmm I guess that snowboarding trip at the end of the year looks like being cancelled.
The graphic you present is originally from the Asahi Shimbun. I've downloaded an English copy from their FB site and posted it here:
http://www.anarchyjapan.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/craneplan.jpg
Useful update. Thanks. Where are they with this process?
They don't know shit.
APRIL 13, 2011, 7:19 P.M. ET
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703551304576260212888070284.html
The submission came four days after Toshiba offered its own long-term plan for decommissioning the plant. Unlike Hitachi's voluntary submission, Toshiba's plan was a response to Tepco's earlier request for information on how to remove possibly damaged fuel from the plant and safely transport it to another location.
Toshiba and Hitachi are rivals in everything from electronics to industrial systems to selling nuclear reactors. Both denied that they intended to compete by submitting separate plans.
Both Hitachi and Toshiba are receiving advice on decommissioning from their overseas partners. "The road map we've proposed is only the very first step, and we will have to keep making adjustments because the situation at the plant is still changing," Hitachi's Mr. Sato said.
A Tepco spokeswoman said the company didn't yet know whether it would pick one of the proposals, or ask the two companies to work together. The work's scope is also unclear since the crisis is still unfolding and some key questions, such as the extent to which fuel rods have melted, remain unanswered.
"We are not at a stage yet where we can discuss the proposals," Tepco President Masataka Shimizu said at a news conference Wednesday.
You're all going to glow and die.
So bend right over
And kiss your asses goodbye.
http://img823.imageshack.us/img823/2882/headupassx.jpg
You first.
Not according to the consensus of collective wisdom here. ;-)
So radioactive isotopes in American tap water and milk are no problem for you?
Does anyone know how much radiation has been released in total from Fukushima compared to all of the known nuclear bombs and bomb tests since the Manhattan Project?
Thus far, very little.
We have had mostly radioactive decay products, very small quantities per se, grams of mass equivalent. A mole of iodine is about 125 grams, the total emissions to date are equal to the decay of one thousandth of a mole or less.
The bombs, around 250 atmospheric tests alone, fissioned or fused thousands of kilograms of material.
The glitch here is that we have thousands of tons of nuclear fuel on this site that will mobilize unless kept cool. We're not doing a great job of that thus far.
well they gave it a "7" like chernobyl a few days ago. and, specifically because of that little "glitch" ya mention, i'd say the is 2-3 chernobyls, right now, conservatively. i can't prove it, but look at the place, think of the enormous tonnage of stuff going ape-shit, and weep.
University students film tsunami striking Nakatsugawa City
http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=32d_1302646038
wow, i cannot believe this one. cars and trucks still driving around almost to the time the wave crashes through the city. people running toward high ground in front of the water.... total devastation. unbelieveable.
I had seen parts of this one with a voice-over, but not the whole thing with the staggering original audio. Thanks for posting that.
Should be like nector to a bee. Prepare for a lot of UFOs homing in on that source
So, who is stepping up and taking the leadership role in guiding us through this disaster?
(Which I guess the first step would be to admit we do have a disaster on our hands?)
I guess that makes clear where the hot fuel actually was - my bad
C'mon people, why all the long faces? The cleanup is going to create lots and lots of JOBS!
That's conjob...Japan a net oil sucker will be crippled with high costs. They print, they shoot oil higher. Japans a write off.
I saw a broken window on unit 2 as well!
I remember in the 1980s we believed that it was Japan's turn to rule the world. We feared them. Nobody would have believed that they would turn into such losers.
Japan is gone. What a bizarre govt on news eating veges from the surrounding area. They have a meltdown worst in history yet they spin a job of the insane.
t-minus and counting Japan has a total fiscal meltdown mixed with their already nuclear meltdown. The whole country will be toxic. Sad but true
decent footage of the reactor fumes.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vi4sp0lrNsU
Cesium and iodine are mobilized very well by steam as cesium iodide.
So that steam is hot, in more ways than one. It then eventually gets rained out.
Not healthy for the surrounding area.
Cesium and iodine are mobilized very well by steam as cesium iodide.
So that steam is hot, in more ways than one. It then eventually gets rained out.
Not healthy for the surrounding area.
Interesting at 2:24 on the roof camera shot shows vapor comming off the roof. I do not believe those are holes. Those are the roof drains! Shows how F'd up things are inside.
If you saw the photos of the tsunami water damage - it looks like some of the MCCs and lower (ground levels) were beat to shit. We know the DG sets where destroyed early, but I never realised that the MCCs and drives were toast until I saw those photos.
http://aucanary.blogspot.com/2011/04/pictures-of-fukushima-nuclear-plant...
there's been more data released here, as of April 13th:
http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=24305
plus spreadsheet (updated daily):
https://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=0AonYZs4MzlZbdHY4aUJhUlY3Mnd0NVF...
I thought these two videos were pretty damning, no reconstruction, no sign of the populace, a bunch of cows wandering around(alive, you shag-bastards), and ridiculous readings. From Russia Today via YT: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eNrUShdT_eY
Original vid(?): http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jv-481g6oVY
I gave the Japanese a lot of credit for the inital response to the tsunami but around Fukushima it appears that they've just FUBAR'd the entire area to save corporate face.
...Or to hide the weapons program.
Should be good for the Dow though, eh?
The data I am seeing is suggesting at this point, about a 10% release of Chernobyl, and the Chinese are saying their impact is only about 1%. In my view, barring further damage from natural events, this is becoming a manageable event.....but it will go on for a long time.
"a manageable event.....but it will go on for a long time."
A manageable event? Did you know that milk in the USA apparently has some new, unwelcome isotopes in it? Do you think they can manage to stop that, or will milk and tap water have these additives for the next 10 years?
A few posts above I pointed out the inaccuracies being reported per milk on various blogs. No, I do not think the food chain or the water supply in the US is at risk for years. I think they will stop the airborne emissions within months. Just my opinion based on what I think I know.
So, given the best case government/TEPCO fudged numbers of 10% Chernobyl so far, we can expect a Chernobyl equivalent every 10 months? It's gonna take years to stop the release. Also, if they've admitted to 10% so far, I'm sure its far more. Given the government/TEPCO track record thus far, I'm correcting everything with a +1 order of magnitude. I'm shocked people are still eating up these numbers.
I am not eating-up the numbers, but I am using them to try to understand what I think is happening. In my view the airborne emissions have dropped considerably, and will continue to do so. Now, if another earthquake comes along that does further damage, then who knows. I have to have some numbers as a basis for a realistic opinion, otherwise I am just pulling worst-case or best-case scenarios out of my ass.
My opinion. Fortunately or unfortunately we can't serve radioactive crap to any person in a controlled study (science ethics and all that). So we actually have no way of saying what is "safe" unless we extrapolate on studies done on rats or rely on scattered data based on a few nuclear accidents. Nor do we have data on how this stuff gets into the food chain or how long it stays there. For me, it is probably a wash given my age. But for my four year old nephew -no.
It's been done.
Indeed it has, accidently and on purpose.
Where, how and why?
Well, radiation damage to people has been studied since Marie Curie died of Leukemia from a lifetime of handling radium. There are too many circumstances to cite, but in the early bomb test, soldiers were placed at various distances from the epicenter, and there are the Hiroshima/Nagasaki survivors, who were studied extensively, and all the accidents that have happened over the years.
This link is a good start, since it cites US Gov admission of human testing:
http://www.ieer.org/sdafiles/vol_3/3-1/humanex.html
Thanks for the link.
I didn't see your other post, but I'll point out that the level of the isotopes in USA milk and tap water exceeds the legal limit sometimes by 2X. If Fukushima continues to spew for months, those isotopes will continue to accumulate in American bodies.
BTW I note that you are one of the pro-nuclear-happy-talk guys, and you have to keep revising your sunny forecasts. Even if you are well meaning, you should give your keyboard a rest.
I respect your past comments. To gain my confidence, the release calculations would have been based on data that was collected on a schedule, was comprehensive, and was provided on a timely basis. Of course, it would be verifiable or subject to scrutiny. That has not been the case. In fact the opposite. We will all therefore draw our own logical conclusions.
In general, I agree. Other countries close by have provided their own data that although not wholly accurate as site data (because of varying wind speeds/patterns), is very suggestive of what has been released in the air. But yes, one should follow their own mind on these things, I do, but I certainly am not ready to call them either logical, or conclusions.
With time we will find out most of what was the true information in spite of obfuscation, ineptitude and simply the reality of the situation. It is unfortunate that we make our decisions today based on incomplete information - when more could certainly have been made available.
I have been pressing my local "authorities" to provide actual data instead of "pronouncments" related to their testing. Half have been responsive and released actual data. Their measurement criteria was lacking I am afraid. The other half are still sticking with their "pronouncements". I will continue to press them. As an individual and father, they have the same concerns I would have.
I am glad not to be any closer than I am.
To share an experience: The local authority happily posted their testing results on their website for water with little urging. Their detection limits were not what I hoped for but did not make me reach for the bottled water my area yet. The broader regional authority outsourced their testing of both milk and water to a University/Industry partnership proclaiming itself as having the latest and best detection equipment. They released their results publicly, with some urging, but their detection limits were set such that you could not make an informed decision whether "limits" were reached or not. Of course, the federal government, with urging, wouldn't release the actual test results for water and milk....the results simply weren't above their "Action Thresholds". Now was that the long term thresholds or the thresholds you should be able to absorb for days/weeks/months/decades? Guess I'll find out someday. Hope the kids don't.
The EPA releases their data on their website from the nation-wide monitoring system
...Thanks, but am not in the US...For once, US gov level of disclosure of actual data contributes somewhat to informed decision making. Of course, MSM coverage does not. Rely on your own due diligence.
Sorry for assuming you were Stateside. If you can get info on the prevailing wind patterns and speed and your distance from the event as compared to the US, then you can likely use the EPA data to estimate your situation. And, countries close to you that might post data would be good too.
I am not a shill for this product, but anybody really worried about drinking water could buy Fiji Water, it comes out of a volcanic bed deep under the island of Fiji and never is exposed to the atmosphere during bottling. Just a thought.
NOTE TO CD: I don't even know if the Fiji Water company is public, so am not trying to drive their stock up per talking my own book.:)
yeah. i know what you mean... arnie gunderson reports that the areva spokesperson debriefed a room of invitees on the mess and said, afterwards, it was the worst, ever. this is the french nuclear company which fabricated, sold, and delivered the plutonium-added fuel which the japanese courts refused to permit, due to a suit about fudged safety standards. or did i dream that?
stay logical and within your own understanding. why not? after a while, rocket science isn't totally incomprehensible, forever, anymore. people wanna blow smoke for another month, they can just blow it up their own asses, for a change, eh?
okey dokey! they made it a 7 like chernobyl b/c it reached that 10% chernobyl threshold!
got it!
No, because the tomatos still taste fine, and dupe you into thinking all is well.
Manageable event means ... not unmanageable?
For who or what? For the internal refugees, who used to live within that exclusion zone, I'd say their inability to return or sell and recoup on land and business, etc., and a broke govt just printing to survive, is a fairly non-manageable event, likely to degenerate.
Isn't that what this is about, if anything at all?
But yes, I guess they'll adjust to total write-off and destruction of EVERYTHING ... ... or not.
Or did you mean 'manageable event' for the nuclear industry, govt and marketz spin-merchants?
If so, you're probably correct.
I meant manageable in that they can stop the airborne releases and keep water in the right places doing the right thing until they can start the very tricky disassembly process. No, I was not referring to the pain and misery of the many people impacted by this.
The only thing I don't understand about what you said is that they can stop/manage the release of airborne particles.
If the radiation level is so high humans can't go in the buildings and those buildings are blown to shit...how is it manageable?
I realize you are an expert of some kind but I just don't see what's manageble.
If they can keep water in the core vessels, and keep temps below vapor level, and keep a nitrogen purge on the drywells, then they can stop the cores from emitting airborne radiation. Per the pools, Keep water in the ones that are intact, and keep the temps down, and you eliminate airborne radiation and emitted contaminants. If a pool is damaged, then it depends on what the damage is, if it is a complete structural failure, then they have to keep water flowing over the mess until the rods cycle to a condition where they can be handled. If they can get local radiation levels down inside the buildings, they can use water spray to attenuate it enough to get people in there on shifts. The problem with this is, they can stop airborne problems, but to accomplish the scenario I laid out, you are going to continually produce significant amounts of crapped-up water that will almost have to be flowed into the sea.
OK Ari, understood.
But 'managing' airborne and fluid releases?
With fires and oxidation in shattered buildings with broken plumbing and cracks?
Really mate, that sort of denial is kinda beneath you.
If they keep water flowing and temps down, then airborne releases for the most part, go away. The downside to this is you will be flowing a lot of water that will have to go into the sea. Stop airborne releases, flow enough water to dilute activity in the wash-off inside the buildings, and spray to attenuate radiation, and you can get people in there. This is just my thinking based on what I know, and what I think I would do based on that.
Yeah, I don't disagree with that, but you seem to be edging towards a steady-as-she-goes resolution, over many years.
I think the real smack-down is still coming, and is not able to be 'managed' by humans, beyond the mitigations you described.
I would not call that 'manageable event', just because you're optimising that mitigation, as the dynamics in the foundations and SFP's evolve away from future stability, making mitigation of that sort onsite too ineffective.
As has been pointed out elsewhere, the Russians used 600,000 people to clean up one gutted reactor to reduce cummulative exposures, rather than try to just mitigate and tamp down.
You may be right. But, I am just saying what I think will happen, and I could be very wrong. The Russians had what I think is a very different situation, and they had absolutely no other options, since this was a graphite moderated reactor with no possibility of regaining any kind of control, and no containment at all.
Ari, I always appreciate your posts. Thank you.
Unfortunately #3 is still releasing airborne AFAIK and every drop of water they pump at #2 leaks progressively hotter. No data on #1. Why?
to paraphrase an old song about cocaine:
"They say it's for horses,
and not for men;
they say they can fix it,
but the won't say when."
hey thanks ari! you didn't say when, either! darn!
That is impossible to know. My guess is they will stop airborne emission within a few months, but that is just a SWAG. In my mind, the worse case scenario is what might result from another huge earthquake and Tsunami...that could be unthinkable.
well, thanks for puttin up w/ me, here. in my mind, it's already unthinkable. too many "glitches" and "ifs" to be resolved. maybe the dominoes will start to fall better, ari; be fine w/ me! this place is an unholy mess. not very scientific, yet perhaps scientifically accurate, nonetheless.
fuk_u is pretty hot. extremely radioactive. and i say that knowing that you are on record, recently saying you would go there, take yer own readings, and then decide whether to go in and play or not. so, i know when i'm outflanked, ok? peace.
Slewie, everybody has some ideas of what might be going on, I am just one of the bunch. I am not trying to minimize anything either, but like you, I hope the dominoes fall in the right direction. Nobody has anything to gain from this thing going completely tits-up any worse than it already is. Per radiation, as long as I can measure it in real-time, and have the proper gear, then it is just more-or-less the same work I did for years. Would I trust a TEPCO health physics tech to provide me the data? hell no.
Would you trust a FENOC or Southern Nuclear HP?
http://www.southerncompany.com/nuclearenergy/hatch.aspx Hatch is exact same NSSS design as Fukushima BWR Mark I Drywells - fuel pools full.
http://www.nrc.gov/info-finder/reactor/perr1.html Perry is at the epicenter of the last earthquake in NE Ohio. SFP is in RB (transfer tube) however last time I looked into down into it, it looked 80-90% full.
No, Pete, I would not. And...I should have pointed that out. I don't live all that far from Watts Bar, Oak Ridge and Sequoya...and I think Watts Bar is carrying one hell of a load of spent rods. All US reactors are carrying too many spent rods in their pools, since it seems impossible to reach any kind of long-term storage solution. I was at the Nevada Test Site when Yucca Mountain was in its early stages, and a fortune has been spent on that site. If no depository solution is found, and no reprocessing solution, then nuclear power will have to eventually go away.
The more I read about this pete the more I realise those SFPs were designed to accomodate the full life-cycle of fuel for that reactor, then run out of room for more.
But a clear path to what 'next', was never really faced up to (or rather, not allowed to occur, because it just wasn't smart or acceptable) but now all these reactors are old and all are full up with the crap they burned.
This whole global situaton reminds me of all those old Soviet subs that needed decommisioning post 1989, that the US and others paid for, for their own good.
Who pays for decoms of civil reactors, if the ekonomy and dollah are snaffu?
Mars maybe?
We better find acceptable, agreed and affordable ways of doing this globally, because one thing is certain, all those official reassurances about how robust these things are to non-state actors is rubbish and in an age of pending geopolitical ruccus ...well ...
You better love your enemies.
TEPCO needs Abbey Joseph Cohen.
Krugman/Liesman team
a couple more years of this thing burping and americans mite start being born with thumbs
.
in their ass
I have my bottle of Potassium Iodine ready to go. Just waiting for the US Government to say when to take 'em! .........Well, I'm waiting........Oh fuck-it. I'll just take one now.
Stick it up your bunghole Money Man - it will absorb better and faster for ya.
I'm just increasing my diet of iodine rich food. Although the taste of organic Sea Kelp added to my V-8 sucks. Reminds me of laying on the beach and smelling sea weed baking in the sun.
Activists Sneak Into Japan Exclusion Zone To Save (radioactive) Abandoned Pets
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qrEPqm-qfro&feature=feedu
Just thought I’d throw my two cents in, I used to be a
chemist/physicist and was interested in nuclear energy for a while so I can
decipher some of this. I think there is a little bit of what I call “glam
reporting” going on around this whole disaster by the mass media. For instance
the way radiation levels and contamination are being thrown around interchangeably.
This is semi-complex stuff but no harder to get your head around than a
synthetic CDO once you get down to the basics.
I think everyone should take some solace in the fact that
there is still liquid water present at all in the holding pond. This means the
temperature and rate of heating are still low enough that things are relatively
safe, relatively. This means that small scale criticality (new nuclear
reactions) can be taking place but not large scale runaway reactions.
Depending on what’s going on inside this could slow motion towards more and
more criticalities occurring; this is due to the fuel melting and getting
closer and closer together. At the most basic level nuclear reactions are about
geometry; as the fuel gets more dense (fewer spaces between it and the
surrounding fuel) it will likely have more critical events. It can be a bit
more complex than this, but this is the basic gist. As this occurs it will get hotter and hotter
and consequently the fuel will get closer and closer, and a cycle starts to
take hold. Left unattended this becomes a true meltdown, as the fuel melts and
becomes an extremely hot molten slag. As this happens there will be more tell
tale isotopes created – Cesium is a longer half life element which is less
definitive of a fresh reaction, if you start to get reports of Xenon (Xe),
Tellurium (Te), and Barium(Ba) that will indicate recent and more powerful
reactions. The worst case scenario,
though not very likely, is that criticality takes place in just the right
configuration to create an explosion, either by confinement of the hot material
or gas bubbles forming in the slag, if this occurs then lots of radioactive debris
will be flung out all around the place, making things much more interesting for
working around the plant. Black smoke and steam to me aren’t that scary, if you
start to see gray/white dust like material coming out, that will indicate that
the slag is working through the concrete containment.
Basically, the guys at TEPCO are doing what they can with an
extremely shitty hand. I feel sorry for the workers, they are up against it. There
are no easy solutions at this point. It will be somewhat of a miracle if this gets
better before it gets worse, the best they can hope for in the short term is
reaching a point of stability and maintaining it.
Thanks, Mac. Let us know if you see gray dust from #1, 2 or 3.
Correct, the heat-sink effects of the suppression pool won't last forever.
Once the fuel melt, pools inside the foundation, it is largely unable to be cooled directly, it will heat the foundation for months, until even the torus itself begins to heat dry and melt from the bottom up.
Far from a stabilized and manageable situation medium-term. Which is why I said on Monday that this will take months to come adrift.
Especially for No.3, where you have the effective thermal behavior of two melted cores in there, due to MOX.
I expect No.3 did completely melt, and become 100% fluid - it would have got too hot to not fully melt.
The 1 and 2 may have only partly melted, like TMI did, asymmetrical and messy.
But the shaking of quakes may have changed that in No.1, at least, by the look of things.
EDIT: another point, No.1 was well-behaved from the 13th when it blew until the 20th to 21st when recriticality emerged. I expect hiatus like this many times, then high activity as the foundations heat and melt more, and the melt is perodically homogenised and acting as a slow-reactor, creating NET thermal rise, probably for many months, punctuated by the recritical dynamic phases. One of them is going to do real damage, as the structure heats and weakens, then the game will change.
TEPCO is "doing what they can"? Sorry, but that is not true. Compare the response at Chernobyl to what the Japanese government has mustered so far at Fukushima. The Soviet politicians screwed around for a few days after the initial explosion, and then they called in some competent military officers to run the show. The disaster was contained because hard decisions were made and brave men sacrificed everything to get the needed work done. Once the military got involved, the mobilization was massive and the efforts were effective.
The Japanese are caught up in a strange Kabuki theater where there is lots of motion and drama, but no real changes on the ground at the plants. Toshiba's silly 30-year timeline for a resolution just proves they are in a different reality. If the isotopic contamination threat is as serious as some posit here, the response needs to be on a much larger scale and under a military command structure.
I can appreciate what you're saying. What I meant by "doing what they can" is that things are very unstable now from a technical perspective. You could try to do a few things, but the consequences aren't predictable. Even putting water on hot fuel rods is dicey, they could explode. In the USSR you could make an obvious difference for the mere fact that the reactor was strewn all over the place; you could just go around and pick stuff up. I think from Japan's perspective they are just happy none of them have really exploded (meaning the concrete structures are totally or mostly intact, not the superficial gantry areas that did explode), and are afraid to create such an event. No one wants to talk about it because it's horrible to comprehend, but the best case could be these reactors quietly melt a couple yards into the earth, with the key adjective being quietly. People are getting there panties in a bunch because a little trace of Iodine is making it over here, wait until you see what comes over if these things do explode. At least 60,000 people died cleaning up Chernobyl, Japan has the chance to keep that number much lower if they just stay on the rope. Remember, there are over a thousand tons of radioactive fuel in these reactors, much of which is hot enough to melt steel, and radioactive enough to kill an unshielded person in under 30 seconds. No matter how much people, equipment and money you have this is literally the physical limit of what we can do as humans.
BUT that said there are a few things I would be doing that I'm a bit amazed they aren't, so I do agree with some of what you say, I just meant previously the technical part of dealing with the reactors themselves. Knowing that these reactors aren't going anywhere for a long time, I would start by dumping boron and other neutron absorbers into the plants like they did at Chernobyl (kills or slows nuclear reactions). I'd also start building protective earth structures around the plant and start working on a containment area in the sea. Full containment structure to follow, but since these things will be making lots of hydrogen for a while I wouldn't close it in entirely just yet.
I would start by dumping boron and other neutron absorbers... I'd also start building protective earth structures around the plant and start working on a containment area in the sea.
Thank you.
http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/135406-alan-von-altendorf/157949-fukushima-build-a-seawall-pronto
Edit: Oh, shit. This just in from Bloomberg:
"Engineers at Tokyo Electric have so far rejected a proposal to flood reactors at its damaged plant, which could lower the temperature in days rather than months, according to the person, who asked not to be identified because he isn’t authorized to speak to the media. Instead, the utility is pumping in water and venting off steam, a method called 'feed and bleed'... Tokyo Electric has been reluctant to flood the reactors because it could increase the amount of contaminated water that eventually flows into the ocean, according to the person."
i don't watch msm. but my brother came in here today and asked if i knew about the woman who drove her van with three children inside into the hudson river. no. i didn't. but my first thought was--is she as concerned about fukushima and this world we've destroyed as i am. is she this depressed? really, my first thoughts. this is the story of our time and very few people i know are concerned about it. i'm considered crazy. for worrying about a generation of children. pregnant women in japan. how everyone might be affected by this.
I don't watch much MSM either but my first thought after reading your comment was that if 75% of New Yorkers would have followed her lead my commutes into NYC would be far more enjoyable.
well, b_d, this illustrates what's important to you. enjoy your commutes. and think about those three children, plus the 75% you want to follow the mom's lead, as they claw at the windows of the vehicle, wanting only to survive. you're a hell of a human being.
omg
/sarc off
I see you don't guffaw at sarcasm.
Noted.
i don't push it. i mentioned it, socially, to two people, yesterday. just that i hadn't been enjoying my bike as much b/c i was worried about radiation levels, a bit, and wanted to err on the side of caution, for now, until i learned more.
crazy? who the hell would ever think slewie was crazy? rotfl.
you're not nuts. except here, who the hell even thinks about this seriously? c'mon, kiddo, take care of g_b & those great ears!
My nightly routine has become pounding bottles of iodine-laced sake while reading zerohedge until I pass out. Bright future ahead!
At least for time, we save face...and now, we tell truth. We honorable. See? Oh, and don't worry. No radiation in you country.
Thank you, you lying fucking assholes.
Obama and Washington and the Sheeple: Fuck you all. If anyone had any balls they would have called a spade a spade, taken over the site and sealed it. Fucking period. Once again this government fails to protect and excels at lying. Shame on the Sheeple.
After that tomato eating incident I came to the conclusion that the Japanese have the Govt they deserve. the fruiterers were annoyed the Govt had declared a Level-7 accident. Not by the fact that 3 reactor cores are currently irradiating dry-wells, and all leaking isotopes. Weird people.
That said, the otherside of the coin is a lot of this very irritating soft-soaping is for locals in the affected areas, who are pretty much destroyed mentally. When you're so destroyed brutal honesty is perhaps not a good idea. I think the rest of us can read between the lines anyway.
Don't get it ? The head in the sand Japanese emporer has zero brain. No one really gives a fuck that our 4 year olds will have a higher rate of cancer - certainly not any asshole within the Beltway. Why ? The wind blows our way that is why they set this thing upnorth of Toyo on the coast not on the opposite side of the island. mmm... a waste of a trillion dollars for zero in Iraq (last I heard they were shooting protesters on their streets and no one blinked an eye) but a US military mission to perform a Soviet style seal of the Japanese disaster - probably costing 25-50 was not apparently ever even considered. My 16 year old was appalled at the scale of the distortions. It was obviously all a lie from the start... and again, at this point the Sheeple appear to be so far dummed down that there is precious little hope... so, yes, live like you've got only a few years...
Fuck. This is what I was most afarid of.
I'm curious. While there are plenty in this forum who want to play traffic cop and tell everyone that everything is OK, I have a question. When was the last time anyone dumped so much radio active water into the ocean? Can we compare that to some other event? Please don't tell me of a nuclear explosion because that is different. Seems to me we are venturing into some new area here and the truth of the matter is we really don't know exactly how things will turn out either livable or real bad. Please don't quote chernobyl or three mile either. Each of these events are unique.