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Apple, now that's a unique investment idea
earning that 2/20 one unique idea at a time.
I made a similar comment and got insulted. I think it's extremely insightful myself!
and don't forget SunTrust, also cut 65%
Bankers won't be happy about this decision.
Jesus, started a bunch of positions in home builders. Wonder how he hedging these long positions?
No need to hedge... they all have tons of cash and tons of land.
Perfect set up. Underbuilding relative to population growth since '06 means that we will have a housing shortage in 2012/2013. Already starting to see signs of it in rental rates and vacancies.
Those stocks will all double or triple in 12 months.
Your math is no good mang. 5 million homes on the market. 5 million in the shadows.Housing shortage 2012/2013, does not compute does not compute. Its good to see you out and about again Cramer.
Wrong. People live in those houses... when you sell, you have to move somewhere else.
I got to agree with him Math. I usually line up with your point of view but these homebuilder positions look like, uh well.... they look like rentals.
WTF do you think Mom & Dad's basement is for? Ever here of sharing and room mates? Under bridges and tent cities? You have no imagination at all.
You're not just a troll, but an idiot also.
>> Underbuilding relative to population growth since '06 means that we will have a housing shortage in 2012/2013.
Just went I thought you couldn't say something more idiotic than your typical rants against metals you come out with this gem.
Holy shit you are one dumb fucking troll.
Two words for you to learn: SHADOW INVENTORY.
Give this man a cookie for he speaks the truth. IF and I say IF there is a housing shortage then it is only because banks are holding back inventory. I can't spit out my window here in Manassas Park, Va without hitting a house for sale or a home with those little white stickers in the window indicating bank owned and winterized home. It's gotten somewhat better in the past 3 years but 2012/2013?? Nonsense. 2015 if we are lucky, VERY lucky. More like 2020 if I was a betting man.
So 103 months of inventory. Sure looks like a housing shortage to me. At some point in 2020.
People live in those houses. When they sell them, they have to get a new one.
Foreclosures don't reduce demand for housing UNITS... hence shortage. We built almost zero inventory since '06
We WILL NOT have enough houses in 2 years.
Madness. Sold to you.
So are you saying that banks are eager to have 20 million houses in REO, and in no rush to foreclosure and auction off property, thereby refuting the entire robosigning scandal with one fell swoopish argument?
Or that once you are foreclosed upon you get to sell the house?
Lastly, you do realize hopefully (and to have passed the captcha you probably should) that the foreclosed upon houses don't get eventually bulldozed thus taking them out of the supply. Right?
I'm saying that people are living in those 20mm houses that the bank owns... and when they are finally sold, they have to go somewhere.
The five bedroom is foreclosed on, so you trade down to a three bedroom rental.
You still need a place to live. Number of units required doesn't change.
Go look at the census data. Population growth was almost identical from 1990 to 2000 and from 2000 to 2010. And we built almost EXACTLY the same number of houses from 1990 to 2000 as we did from 2000-2010. Problem is we built almost all of them in 5 years instead of ten.
Oil drops to $75 on the China/commodity meltdown, and GDP from residential construction runs back to 6% form under 3% now.... We're back off to the races soon.
So you see big job growth and the decline of inflation soon? People paying $4 for gas and huge increases at the grocery store aren't saving that much. If they couldn't pay for the last one, how do they pay for the next one? Specially if the last lender takes deficiency judgements against the viable? You ARE an idiot troll.
I think it would be prudent to stop arguing. You make me feel embarrassed for you.
he is a lying dog isnt he
Here is the set up for Fed Three Card Monty come June @ http://rosenthalcapital.com/blog/2011/05/debate-of-qe-termination-a-head-fake-expect-market-rallies-upon-completion-of-qe2/
Cramer has been very bearish on financials lately.
A rally in that sector is imminent.
Your beggining to be worse than Cramer. You have been bullish financials too, so i'll take the other side of you.
You've been saying that for a few weeks now. Long and wrong again eh.
sounds like another "double secret probation" thingy.
Time to focus on the 2nd part of the recovery - the residential construction driven one. That is where the real money will be made over the next two years. Look at all the homebuilder positions he added. Housing shortage coming in 2012/2013.
WOW, i completely forgot to focus on the 1st part of the recovery.
Is Geithner going to welcome the 2nd part officially anytime soon? Perhaps by finally selling that house he hasn't been able to get off of for the last THREE YEARS.
There may not be many NEW homes, but there still is a huge inventory in houses for sale, foreclosures still in process, and the largest "whisper" market realtors have ever been aware of. Many more people looking to sell if they think market improves. Household formation still at worst levels since the 1940s. That isn't going to turn around significantly in the next two years unless there is a solid improvement in employment. Otherwise, people less interested in home ownership - view it as shelter and neighborhood constancy - not an investment for capital gain for the next few years.
Problem is people live in pretty much all of those houses... so actually there is not much 'excess' inventory.
When you move, all you do it just switch places with some one else.
We built about zero houses since '06... in a couple of years, that is going to be a issue (a good one for homebuilders).
Formations have been anemic, but population growth persists... as the economy continues to improve, those pent-up formations will occur. And they will have no where to go... because we forgot to build for the last five years.
Math Man may be sort of a dick/troll (apply these terms loosely)... But I'm going to say that he "kind of" has a point here (vis-a-vis, housing)...
I'll qualify this by saying that the suggestion of (I'm paraphrasing):
- little inventory build since '06
- People have to move somewhere
are weak GENERALIZATIONS, imo...)
But who's to say that the macro might not produce something workable?..
If you believe in QE to infinity, then you basically believe in ZIRP to infinity... That puts a lid on 30 year FIXED (or even a wave 2 of "teaser loans" at HISTORICALLY LOW RATES)... Note: I'm NOT in the real estate business (so I'm not a real estate troll)... I'm just guessing the viability of financing...
- Jobs (surely)
- Credit (worse than 2005/6, but probably in the process of getting more lax, as the banks find ways to clear their fudged balance sheets (I'm not saying it's HONEST... But what is?)...
So... In areas where there are GOVERNMENT jobs, or UNION jobs... It would seem that those peeps (at least "feel") that they are immune to TEOTWAWKI... I'm not one of them, but I'm surrounded by them (those peeps)...
In any case... My 2 cents is that Math Man might have a point about a suprising strength in housing over the next 2 years (probably for different reasons than he nominated)...
& I'll add something else...
Math Man gets blitzed on this blog for his "short calls" on SILVER... Again: It seems to me that he sometimes has a point, and sometimes doesn't...
Statements like "YOU CAN DIG IT OUT OF THE GROUND FOR $5" stick like oatmeal tossed onto the wall... But if someone was SHORTING "paper" silver at $50, they made a GOOD TRADE...
I don't want to go further along that thread, because the SMART people on this blog could give a flying fuck about PAPER SILVER...
I'm an "accumuater" of silver bullion (but even I admit that I STOPPED accumulating when it passed $35 on the upside (actually my last purchase was end of February)... As the paper price dips below, I'll weigh out the advantages or disadvantages at any particular SPOT PRICE... I'm HOPING this process draws out over a bit of time...
I'll buy at $30... I'll buy at $26... I'll buy at $21 (assuming they all happen)... But look... If the "paper" price hits the low 20's, then all that means is that JPM was successful in executing a MIND FUCK... Most people areound this blog aren't stupid enough to fall for it... I'm not so sure that the "DWTS" crowd won't be susceptible to it...
In either case it doesn't matter... The IRONIC thing is that BOTH "Math Man" & "the Silver Bugs" will have been correct... And BOTH will still be sling the s*** over the wall at each other...
As it should be :-)
Francis Sawyer (SOYER - but you'd have to appreciate the "Stripes" vs. "Mark Twain" mashup)
There is no money to drive sufficient residential construction to support any kind of meaningful recovery.
While it is possible we may see an uptick in multifamily housing projects in some markets, the most I would expect to see in single family residential is a very limited improvement in the upper end market for a few metro areas.
Hey, Math Man, you are in line with Dave Ramsey, he thinks residential real estate is a 'value investment that appreciates'.
No shit. He said it on the radio the other day. What planet is he basing that on? The same planet Math Man lives on, where you dig silver out of the dirt for $5 a troy ounce?
When social mood becomes very negative (at around S&P 400); the calls for these Bankster Financial Terrorists to be arrested and tried and quickly put in prison will become intense. These banksters know their days are numbered....
The shrill calls of anger from the used to be middle class, the poor, the homeless, the hungry and the educated with degrees "in worthlessness [Gerald Celente]" will be overwhelming.
When the used to be middle class lose their jobs, their homes and have no more to lose...they will lose it! This is when Congress will be awashed with new freshmen (50% turnover) and they will publicly try the Fed, Fannie execs, Freddie execs....heads will roll.
Russell 2k below 50 DMA, Not good for anyone long stocks. Small caps usually bite the dust, followed by the big names.
SPY is in trouble too.
I believe financials lead the market down tomorrow. The tech selloff during the POMO pump was the key clue to GTFO of long positions.
The collapse is just days away.....
But it's ok see. The whole world is scheduled to end Saturday.
I've even rescheduled my dinner party to Friday night.
Should be a blast!
I havent looked at Apple for ages , will put it in the "to short" short list crosshairs now. Thanks Dave.
Bet the refinery adds are gone next Q
Can't believe people get paid to do this...way late selling financials, apple is a good buy here at less 12x forward earnings and 16x trailing
inflation free money trade is off
It is a sad sack of shit isn't it? 2 and 20 to bulk up on AAPL north of 340. Sweet life. Follish investors.
Hey mister zing/The Axe/wirtschaftswunder/mogul rider/long juan silver/William the Bastard, isn't it time to create a new account again? Just saying... oh, and one more question out of curiosity: Are you folks pooling those accounts? Asking because there are some weird sudden shifts in personality sometimes..... on the other hand, maybe it's just drugs.
yes, no, no possibility
And that is supposed to imply.... what? Oh, forget i ask..... i for 10 seconds forgot that you have no point, no opinion, no nothing.... just a desire to destroy and deceive for fun/profit.
just a desire to destroy and deceive for fun/profit.
just a desire to destroy and deceive for fun/profit.
To destroy Tepper's fee schedule? Are you David Tepper's pit bull?...or poodle? WTF is your point?
heh, heh, heh
look what i found: IMF to sell gold to raise bail for Strauss-Kahn | Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee
DSK is being held without bail.
this is a ...
...oh, never mind!
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