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Tesla IPO: Disaster

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Irrational exuberance or Rational idiocy?

 

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Tue, 07/06/2010 - 15:13 | 454994 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

I would love to see the ex-wife's face as she sees net worth go from exuberant to living in mom's basement in less than a month.

Tue, 07/06/2010 - 15:47 | 455152 Mitchman
Mitchman's picture

I wonder of she is subject to the lock-out period?

Tue, 07/06/2010 - 17:52 | 455535 Blano
Blano's picture

Maybe that was when they were still married.

Tue, 07/06/2010 - 20:38 | 455819 Cpl Hicks
Cpl Hicks's picture

dude, you got all of that one!

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qrs521's picture

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Tue, 07/06/2010 - 15:14 | 454999 homersimpson
homersimpson's picture

I'll classify that under "DAMN I WISH I SHORTED TESLA."

Tue, 07/06/2010 - 15:28 | 455059 masterinchancery
masterinchancery's picture

Apparently bear markets are less tolerant of smoke and mirrors as a substitute for profits.

Tue, 07/06/2010 - 16:54 | 455367 ATG
ATG's picture

Stock was not available to borrow.

DB, GS, JPM, MS had most of TSLA shorts to stabilize...

Tue, 07/06/2010 - 15:14 | 455005 faustian bargain
faustian bargain's picture

Oof. How much taxpayer money were they propped up with again?

Tue, 07/06/2010 - 21:36 | 455899 TBT or not TBT
TBT or not TBT's picture

"Idiocy" belong in there somewhere.    Gasoline packs about twenty times the energy, by weight, than workable batteries do.   Oh, and our electrical grid can't handle the load of charging electrical cars, not that we'd want it to.

Tue, 07/06/2010 - 15:15 | 455006 ZeroPower
ZeroPower's picture

Definitely did not see it dropping 17. I though the 'all star' trio of underwriters would defend 17 themselves, but i guess even they dont care about their IBD so much as they do about their trading desks making profit shorting the shit out of it

Tue, 07/06/2010 - 15:22 | 455040 Rider
Rider's picture

+1

Tue, 07/06/2010 - 15:31 | 455069 What does it al...
What does it all mean's picture

And then there is KKR.  With such outstanding performance of FIG and BX, why won't private equity shops go ipo?

 

Oh, and don't forget the China Ag Bank ipo today....

 

IPOs only go up, right?

Tue, 07/06/2010 - 17:53 | 455540 Blano
Blano's picture

They must already have their fees.  I was very surprised there was no attempt to defend 17.

Tue, 07/06/2010 - 15:15 | 455007 Turd Ferguson
Turd Ferguson's picture

Wait a second! CNBS told me that this was a great deal, that this was a sign that the bull market was coming back, that this was cause for great optimism.

What a fucking joke.

Tue, 07/06/2010 - 15:31 | 455074 DonnieD
DonnieD's picture

Are you saying there isn't a strong market for 200k go-karts?

Tue, 07/06/2010 - 15:59 | 455206 Uncle Remus
Uncle Remus's picture

*snort*

Tue, 07/06/2010 - 16:08 | 455227 Fish Gone Bad
Fish Gone Bad's picture

That made me laugh hard enough to cough up a tar ball.

Tue, 07/06/2010 - 17:11 | 455401 Mercury
Mercury's picture

Obviously you haven't heard about their new economy model which is by the way totally green:

http://cdn1.ioffer.com/img/item/139/777/073/23jQ.jpg

Tue, 07/06/2010 - 17:10 | 455415 DosZap
DosZap's picture

Donnie D,

Dude,you owe me a keyboard......ROTFLMAO.

Tue, 07/06/2010 - 17:46 | 455522 dark pools of soros
dark pools of soros's picture

$200K ?? you must of been confusing the different models .. oh wait.. still just one

actually they aren't selling the Roadster anymore, they are all in on the sedan, the Model S which will be around $50,000 (less whatever gov kickback you can find)

 

but most people on ZH only are in the market for guns, gold and zombie radar

 

Tue, 07/06/2010 - 17:51 | 455534 LeBalance
LeBalance's picture

Don't need the fancy radar.  If it is moving unannounced near your gold its a zombie and therefore subject to your guns.

Wed, 07/07/2010 - 00:04 | 456051 bingocat
bingocat's picture

+12

Tue, 07/06/2010 - 15:51 | 455166 Votewithabullet
Votewithabullet's picture

"CNBS told me". LeBeau and Greenberg had a FRONT PAGE Tesla point-counterpoint the day b4 the IPO which greenberg won and Crimer himself said get in and get out . What syllable did you not understand turd.

Tue, 07/06/2010 - 17:06 | 455405 Abiggs
Abiggs's picture

Just another example of ZH group (lack of) think. As I recall everyone on CNBC from Greenberg to Pisani to Cramer said to sell TSLA. 

Unless this turd guy wants to be "cool" and rip on cnbc because TD does so, I don't get the point of this dumb a$$ comment...

Tue, 07/06/2010 - 17:36 | 455497 Sancho Ponzi
Sancho Ponzi's picture

Is it necessary to watch CNBS in order to understand that investing in a company that builds EV's with a price tag > 100k and with the range of a golf cart is idiocy? BTW, anyone with 'biggs' in his 'handle' needs to seek professional help.

Tue, 07/06/2010 - 18:05 | 455563 Abiggs
Abiggs's picture

This coming from "ponzi" FAIL

Tue, 07/06/2010 - 18:17 | 455590 Sancho Ponzi
Sancho Ponzi's picture

Oh my, such a witty retort, by someone who confuses its with it's. Epic fail...

Tue, 07/06/2010 - 23:13 | 456014 Abiggs
Abiggs's picture

"by someone who confuses its with it's"

Can you please point me to where I made this mistake?

Tue, 07/06/2010 - 15:59 | 455210 jpk
jpk's picture

Well, Cramer said to sell the IPO on the day it went public. So not everyone was pumping it that day.

Tue, 07/06/2010 - 16:56 | 455377 ATG
ATG's picture

Cramer as usual misinformed:

the only way you could get TSLA on the IPO was with a lockup agreement...

Tue, 07/06/2010 - 16:56 | 455378 ATG
ATG's picture

Cramer as usual misinformed:

the only way you could get TSLA on the IPO was with a lockup agreement...

Tue, 07/06/2010 - 15:15 | 455008 LoneStarHog
LoneStarHog's picture

I guess the power did not transfer to batteries in a timely manner.  Dead Stop!

Tue, 07/06/2010 - 15:15 | 455009 homersimpson
homersimpson's picture

That graph reminds me of the slide in my ghetto hood I grew up in.. Ah the memories.

 

Tue, 07/06/2010 - 16:24 | 455284 sheeple
sheeple's picture

D'oh! I would think it looks more like a semi-donut hole to you, Simpson.

Now get back to Sector 7-g.

Tue, 07/06/2010 - 18:37 | 455629 oddjob
oddjob's picture

Don't worry,he left the Bird in charge.

Tue, 07/06/2010 - 15:16 | 455011 The Rogue Trader
The Rogue Trader's picture

Tesla = the next "Teddy Ruxpin - World of Wonders"

Tue, 07/06/2010 - 15:17 | 455019 Tarheel
Tarheel's picture

al.gore was loving this the first couple days LOL

Tue, 07/06/2010 - 16:09 | 455229 KevinB
KevinB's picture

I thought he was loving some hag in Seattle?

Tue, 07/06/2010 - 15:20 | 455027 russki standart
russki standart's picture

I smell Distribution...

Tue, 07/06/2010 - 15:19 | 455028 Muir
Muir's picture

Blue Horseshoe loves Anacott Steel.

Tue, 07/06/2010 - 15:20 | 455034 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Brings new meaning to the term "round trip" doesn't it?

Tue, 07/06/2010 - 15:20 | 455035 nwskii
nwskii's picture

That $30 buyer is taking the long road home

Tue, 07/06/2010 - 15:21 | 455036 resipsaloquacious
resipsaloquacious's picture

An approx 50% nosedive is what they call in GS IPO parlance, "The Prestige"?

Tue, 07/06/2010 - 15:25 | 455051 hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture

Where is my Chevy Volt, damn it!

Tue, 07/06/2010 - 15:40 | 455119 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture
Who killed the electric car? (1of10):

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=39K36Rw7LYc&feature=related

Tue, 07/06/2010 - 15:26 | 455052 b_thunder
b_thunder's picture

man...  this chart brought nostalgia for the good ol' days of the dot-com IPOs...   the days of "honest" pumps-and-dumps and "IPO spinning" by the Wall St banks, the days with Henry Blodget and MAry Meeker, the days w/out HFT, without gold and s&p futures manipulation.... 

Bring Back The (honest) Crash of 2000-2003!!!!!! 

 

Tue, 07/06/2010 - 16:56 | 455376 Cheeky Bastard
Cheeky Bastard's picture

The most funniest [and most knowledgeable] comment of the day.

I applaud you sir.

Tue, 07/06/2010 - 21:07 | 455855 Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

Please sir may I have some more gigaflops.

Tue, 07/06/2010 - 15:27 | 455056 ozziindaus
ozziindaus's picture

There is nothing new and innovative about the Tesla and that includes the whole EV hype. Someone still needs to explain the battery life dilemma.

Inside word is on Diesel.

Tue, 07/06/2010 - 15:31 | 455079 glenlloyd
glenlloyd's picture

"Inside word is on Diesel."

That's what I've been saying for five years, technology for it is here, doesn't require espensive batteries and doesn't just move the fuel requirement back in the chain to the power plants.

Tue, 07/06/2010 - 15:39 | 455110 ozziindaus
ozziindaus's picture

Small Turbo Diesels are the way to go. Clean, quite, Torquey and very efficient. Europe has proven this for decades and has little faith in electrification. NY and Ca need to take some lessons.

Tue, 07/06/2010 - 15:43 | 455133 schoolsout
schoolsout's picture

I drive an '06 Jetta TDI and love it

Tue, 07/06/2010 - 15:46 | 455147 Xtreems
Xtreems's picture

I'm already driving Skoda Octavia Combi with 1,9 Diesel ~ 60/MPG

Actually a very nice Family car for everyday use (Skoda is a part of VW conglomerate, the same as Audi is and Seat too)

Tue, 07/06/2010 - 15:50 | 455160 schoolsout
schoolsout's picture

I get 40-45mpg, cig burns and all in the leatherette seats....woooo!  Sure beats the hell out of the Tahoe I use to drive...was doing about 130 miles round trip/day just to/from work...not counting calling on customers.

Tue, 07/06/2010 - 15:57 | 455195 Careless Whisper
Careless Whisper's picture

college boy, i pictured u in a gti r20

Tue, 07/06/2010 - 16:20 | 455270 schoolsout
schoolsout's picture

been out of college for a few years...I was an SUV guy as I tow boats/ATVs

not so much anymore, though.  Boats stay on the dock and get a buddy to pull the Rhino when needed...

I just wish I wouldn't have bought new, but the used TDIs were about the cost of new.

Tue, 07/06/2010 - 19:28 | 455704 TreadwCare
TreadwCare's picture

+1 on the TDI.  On my 3rd since 2002.  Now with diesel particulate catalyst that burns off most of the nasty stuff (not urea injection like Mercedes Benz, others).

I had hoped Uncle Sugar's GM Bailout would have dictated they (GM) bought Tesla and applied mass production to the model.  Batteries aside (and yes I realize the battery IS the car), the tech is pretty sweet.

Tue, 07/06/2010 - 15:48 | 455154 Ethics Gradient
Ethics Gradient's picture

Except that Euro 6 emission regulations will basically kill small diesels. They'll need to fit expensive exhaust processing meaning it wont be viable for small, cheap cars.

Yes, yes, I know what you're thinking: this wont affect Americaland. But there is an industry movement to try to (nearly) standardise regulations globally.

Tue, 07/06/2010 - 15:53 | 455175 schoolsout
schoolsout's picture

We've already got emissions requirements here in USA...

I sell commercial vehicles and basically any over-the-road diesel vehicle had to have some DPF/other method of cleaning the exhaust up starting in 2007.  VW didn't make a 2007 model year TDI because of this.  Extra costs

 

and now, for 2010, they are adding SCR technology (most companies, not sure about the cars/other light vehicles) that utilize more equipment (more $$$) and the additional fluid "Urea" to inject in exhaust.

 

The costs just keep going up....medium duty trucks are about $4500 more than last model year and Class 8 stuff is about $10k more

 

Yep...if you thought it was hard finding someone to plop down $140k on a tri-axle dumptruck, you're gonna love getting them in a $150k truck.

Tue, 07/06/2010 - 16:00 | 455204 Ethics Gradient
Ethics Gradient's picture

I reckon $150k for a tri axle dump truck sounds like better value than a Tesla.

Tue, 07/06/2010 - 16:06 | 455223 schoolsout
schoolsout's picture

I can't disagree there.

Tue, 07/06/2010 - 15:49 | 455156 Mad Max
Mad Max's picture

Another vote for diesel.  I've owned two, and a gas hybrid, and while the hybrid worked OK, diesel works great and doesn't make you worry about batteries and (believe it or not) strong headwinds.

Tue, 07/06/2010 - 15:28 | 455057 Mazarin
Mazarin's picture

Goldman lead underwriter, pumps, exercises over-allotment, pumps some more as they dump, stands back and watches the plummet. 

Tue, 07/06/2010 - 15:29 | 455063 williambanzai7
williambanzai7's picture

Great stabilizing...

Tue, 07/06/2010 - 16:41 | 455324 Rusty Shorts
Rusty Shorts's picture

 - you forgot to spam your link banzai.

Wed, 07/07/2010 - 04:19 | 456183 AssFire
AssFire's picture

Oh here you go william:  http://williambanzai7.blogspot.com/

friggen two words again...

Tue, 07/06/2010 - 15:29 | 455065 Boilermaker
Boilermaker's picture

As the only (I think) guy in Detroit and working in the auto industry, I can say that Tesla is doomed.  They contacted our firm to supply our products to them.  Their build volumes are hopeless shitty (by auto standards) compared to their 'target pricing'.  Essentially, they need GM volume pricing for a boutique shop.  Ain't gonna happen.  So, they will be building cars at a loss and will go out-of-business as before the june bugs die off.

The cars themselves are a gimmick.  If you want an all electric vehicle, you're going to buy the Chevy Volt.  If you want a sports car, you'll buy the Mustang GT / Challenger / Corvette whatever.

Who in-their-right-mind is going to buy a $100k +, twin seat, electric sports car.

Needless to say, we told them go pound sand on their request for quotation on our products.  That was a hopeless...hapless...sad business plan for the industry.

But, hey, good luck and all that shit also.

Tue, 07/06/2010 - 15:35 | 455088 The Merchant of...
The Merchant of Venice's picture

Uncle Sam and Paul Krugman as they take a Thelma & Louise vacay.

Tue, 07/06/2010 - 15:37 | 455101 Boilermaker
Boilermaker's picture

Shit, you had to blow the dust off that.  But, nice.

Tue, 07/06/2010 - 15:42 | 455128 ozziindaus
ozziindaus's picture

As the only (I think) guy in Detroit and working in the auto industry

Make that 2 and I believe there's another guy from Troy.

Tue, 07/06/2010 - 15:49 | 455159 Boilermaker
Boilermaker's picture

I'm the guy in Troy.  I just changed my avatar.  Sitting here right now dreading going out into the blazing sun.  Going to the Tigers game tonight.  Lots of cold beer required....lots.

Tue, 07/06/2010 - 18:00 | 455552 Blano
Blano's picture

For what it's worth, I work at a tiny auto supplier in Taylor, so that makes at least 3.

I have to play softball tonight in this stuff, so I'm a little jealous of your impending Tigers/beer combo.  Have fun.

Tue, 07/06/2010 - 18:58 | 455662 ozziindaus
ozziindaus's picture

Enjoy. Yeh, I lived in Troy (Regents Park) a few years back. Fair share of divorcees and vicodin popping alcoholic MILF's. Seems like the more broke ass they are, the more they show off. Such a laugh. 

Tue, 07/06/2010 - 19:34 | 455711 Thoreau
Thoreau's picture

"Irrational exuberance or Rational idiocy?" Neither; it's shortsightedness, with HEAVY doses of oil-goblin pixie-manipulations. Tesla is about developing technology, not delivering million-car quotas. Tesla is simply a high-profile threat to entrenched dogma.

The same mindset is precisely why we have no high-speed rail in the US; it makes too much sense, and takes too much profit from the non-competitive, status quo.

Take the auto industry: without competition from Japan, we'd all be driving Pintos and K-cars. As far as hydrocarbons, think of them as fast food energy: cheap and easy calories, but you pay a much higher price in the long run.

Tue, 07/06/2010 - 15:39 | 455112 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

Pioneers huh?  Well I would call them 113 years too late to be pioneers.  Now pipe dreamers sure, maybe even hopefulls, but not pioneers. 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electric_car

Tue, 07/06/2010 - 15:41 | 455114 Boilermaker
Boilermaker's picture

Yea, it's great that Tesla (a Norweigan company) gets US taxpayer funds to create an electric sports coupe.  I mean, who doesn't need that?

Edit:  I think it was Finnish...can't really remember.  I do remember that it wasn't worth remembering though...

Tue, 07/06/2010 - 15:39 | 455116 Reese Bobby
Reese Bobby's picture

Why would this comment get junked?  I don't agree with it, but how about a free exchange of opinions?  I like reading a comment like this and seeing it is refuted by the comment right before it.  Lighten up?

Tue, 07/06/2010 - 15:45 | 455140 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

Ask the people that junked it.  I didn't but those that did normally don't reply. 

Tue, 07/06/2010 - 15:52 | 455171 suteibu
suteibu's picture

I junked him because the lame-ass tree-hugger had to inject his politics into his comment.

Tue, 07/06/2010 - 15:58 | 455185 docj
docj's picture

The use of the word "teabagger" == instant junk

If you can't make your point without insulting people who have absolutely nothing what so ever to do with the discussion at hand, your point, such as it is, sucks.

PS - didn't junk you, though.

Tue, 07/06/2010 - 16:05 | 455219 Reese Bobby
Reese Bobby's picture

well the tree-hugger comment by the guy who junked him also does what you object to .. but the use of teabagger is pretty bad .. I expect humor is not the poster's long suit ..

Tue, 07/06/2010 - 16:27 | 455291 docj
docj's picture

Well, to each his own on the junk-meter.  "Tree-hugger" doesn't quite sink to the depths of "tea-bagger" in my book.  YMMV.

Tue, 07/06/2010 - 16:31 | 455298 Reductio ad Absurdum
Reductio ad Absurdum's picture

It got junked because of the "two wrongs make a right" reasoning.

The commenter claimed that it was OK for Tesla to get government money because all sorts of other groups get government money. The commenter would have been better off trying to argue why it was acceptable for Tesla to survive on government funding (cutting edge technology, independence from foreign oil, etc.) rather than just accepting socialism carte blanche.

Tesla's all-electric "roadsters" are the wrong direction -- they waste electricity and require too much battery performance. Until better technology arises, electric cars should be hybrid or low performance.

Tue, 07/06/2010 - 18:16 | 455589 Abiggs
Abiggs's picture

It's simply called group think:

Groupthink occurs when a homogenous highly cohesive group is so concerned with maintaining unanimity that they fail to evaluate all their alternatives and options. Groupthink members see themselves as part of an in-group working against an outgroup opposed to their goals. You can tell if a group suffers from groupthink if it:

  1. overestimates its invulnerability or high moral stance,
  2. collectively rationalizes the decisions it makes,
  3. demonizes or stereotypes outgroups and their leaders,
  4. has a culture of uniformity where individuals censor themselves and others so that the facade of group unanimty is maintained, and
  5. contains members who take it upon themselves to protect the group leader by keeping information, theirs or other group members', from the leader.

Groups engaged in groupthink tend to make faulty decisions when compared to the decisions that could have been reached using a fair, open, and rational decision-making process. Groupthinking groups tend to:

  1. fail to adequately determine their objectives and alternatives,
  2. fail to adequately assess the risks associated with the group's decision,
  3. fail to cycle through discarded alternatives to reexamine their worth after a majority of the group discarded the alternative,
  4. not seek expert advice,
  5. select and use only information that supports their position and conclusions, and
  6. does not make contigency plans in case their decision and resulting actions fail.

The irony is that this site was created to challenge this specific type of behavior. Funny how things turn out...

Tue, 07/06/2010 - 15:42 | 455130 Edna R. Rider
Edna R. Rider's picture

I for one am supportive of Tesla.  I just bought 3k shares.  Probably a terrible investment but I would rather put it there than in some other ridiculous thing.

Tue, 07/06/2010 - 15:47 | 455149 lizzy36
lizzy36's picture

$110,000 for an electric car. 

Yeah that's going to work. 

Tue, 07/06/2010 - 15:51 | 455165 Boilermaker
Boilermaker's picture

Uhh...with 2 seats, no truck (at all), and a short cruising range.  Oh, but it lays a helluva patch when you smoke the tires.

Tue, 07/06/2010 - 16:20 | 455271 Fish Gone Bad
Fish Gone Bad's picture

Maybe in 60 years, the Tesla will be thought of as a "really cool" car.  Right now it is a quirky car that is going to have issues when it needs repairs.

Tue, 07/06/2010 - 21:45 | 455912 TBT or not TBT
TBT or not TBT's picture

A german engineer friend of mine would conclude of the Tesla, in three words only:  "silly but nice"

Tue, 07/06/2010 - 18:48 | 455649 still kicking
still kicking's picture

Having one will probably get you laid, lot of hippies out there.....

Tue, 07/06/2010 - 15:54 | 455180 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

Your money would have been more useful absorbing tar balls on the Gulf.

Tue, 07/06/2010 - 18:25 | 455602 OldTrooper
OldTrooper's picture

At least you put your money where your mouth is.  Gotta respect that.  Of course, that much money would buy a nice supply of Johnny Walker Blue.  Your money, your call.

Wed, 07/07/2010 - 00:53 | 456104 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

If you're gonna speculate, go with BLDP (Ballard Power Systems), they make fuel cells.  FD:  I own a 100 shares of BLDP.

Tue, 07/06/2010 - 16:26 | 455281 TonyV
TonyV's picture

Why all the Tesla hate?

There is no hate here. Frankly, I hope they succeed because we need more manufacturing in this country. Having said that, I don't see how a company that has manufactured just 1000 cars, has no distribution network and has a product that is not that unique can have a market cap of $2 billion.

Tue, 07/06/2010 - 18:03 | 455559 Blano
Blano's picture

Those teabaggers you whine about have paid into the system for decades, unlike Tesla. 

Sheesh.

Tue, 07/06/2010 - 15:30 | 455070 KevinH
KevinH's picture

Shouldn't really surprise anyone after what happened to AONE last year. The post ipo charts for the two companies also look very similar.

Tue, 07/06/2010 - 15:31 | 455071 unionbroker
unionbroker's picture

brokers finance for fat fees there is no incentive to buy stock in the open market so they don't

Tue, 07/06/2010 - 15:33 | 455080 Temporalist
Temporalist's picture

This is exactly what I expected.  Didn't know how high it would go but a ramp up and a drop was what I anticipated. 

Tue, 07/06/2010 - 15:34 | 455085 Dr. No
Dr. No's picture

Give the Algos a chance.  Everyone knows when you try to extropolate from too few points (trading days), the math model can have high variability.  Just give it a few more weeks and she will take on a life of her own.

Tue, 07/06/2010 - 15:35 | 455089 itsjustgraft
itsjustgraft's picture

disaster? at a 1.5 billion market cap. some people are very rich.

Tue, 07/06/2010 - 15:36 | 455096 The Franchise
The Franchise's picture

Signs signs everywhere a sign... blockin out the scenery, oh, sorry, wrong Tesla.

Tue, 07/06/2010 - 15:37 | 455098 unionbroker
unionbroker's picture

disaster for the buyers never the sellers

Tue, 07/06/2010 - 15:39 | 455115 Mitchman
Mitchman's picture

This is so typical.  You can bet your bottom dollar that the IPO underwriters are making money on this baby ALL the way down and especially shorting it agianst all the warm close personal friends with whom they placed the IPO in the first place.

You could see this one coming a mile away.

Tue, 07/06/2010 - 15:41 | 455125 Buyemall
Buyemall's picture

The company will be loosing money for sometime. It wasn't supposed to be a buy and hold  investment.

Tue, 07/06/2010 - 15:59 | 455203 Anarchist
Anarchist's picture

Sometime? It can never make money trying to compete against the major hitters in the auto industry. Also a pure electric car cannot compete in the US as long as liquid and gaseous fuels are plentiful. A 100% investment in pure electric vehicles is a foolish move. 

I want to know who is going to solve the multiple chicken and egg problems of electric cars? The US will not spend the money required to make electric cars practical for commuting. I could see China or Japan spending the trillions required to build the infrastructure and power plants required. The reduction of pollution alone can justify some of the investment. The buses and trains in Europe and the Orient already run on electric. Some of the buses can use diesel, run off batteries or tie to the electric grid via overhead lines.

Tue, 07/06/2010 - 16:51 | 455360 KevinB
KevinB's picture

I would never go so far as to say that electric cars are right for everybody, but surely they are right for some people. IIRC, the average commute in the US is 20 miles each way. That's well within the capacity of an electric car (and remember, electrics use very little energy when sitting at stop lights, or stuck in traffic, plus some of the energy can be recaptured during braking). Most American families have two cars, so you have one small electric for the single person commuting, and a big gas cruiser for the cross-country trips. A 240-volt outlet (like you have for your stove), and you can easily charge the car in five or six hours overnight, when electricity usage is typically low.

Again, I'm not saying they're for everybody, but I think there are a lot of people who could get along fine with an electric car.

Tue, 07/06/2010 - 15:45 | 455142 chistletoe
chistletoe's picture

The thing about electric cars is not the fuel.

Detroit's dirty little secret, why they have been undermining electric cars for over 100 years, is those 6,000 little explosions going on every minute under the hood ... it makes for the quintessential planned obsolescence.  An electric car, spared that incessant destructive force, and given the same level of maintenance as a residence, is likely to last as long as the residence....

If the big car makers are successful, again, at suppressing this superior method of egetting around,

it will be everyone else's loss.

 

 

Tue, 07/06/2010 - 16:12 | 455240 Anarchist
Anarchist's picture

So electric cars don't have things that fail like batteries, A/C systems, bearings and gobs of sensitive electronics? Right... 

As long as hydrocarbons are cheap, electric cars will be a novelty. As long as the average American cannot afford to own two vehicles per person, commuter and long distance, electric cars will be a novelty. Electric cars do not and will not have sufficient range for decades in the US. Trillions would be required to build sufficient power generating capacity and a country wide charging network. Once away from home or work, people will not stand for cars that take longer than 15 minutes to recharge. There are no low cost batteries that can charge in such a short time. The present AC system in the country cannot handle millions of cars charging at a time.

Cars will need to be made very small and very light. It will be very difficult to pass crash tests.   

Tue, 07/06/2010 - 17:07 | 455407 KevinB
KevinB's picture

The average American family owns 2.5 cars, so you're point about each person needing two cars is ridiculous; they could own one gas and one electric. Why do you need more generating capacity? Most cars will charge overnight, when there's plenty of capacity in the current system. All-electric cars use about .5 kWh per mile. 40 mile commute means 20 kWh in the battery. At 240V (which is what your stove and dryer use), a 30-amp circuit delivers 7.2 kWh each hour, meaning you could charge it in less than four hours. I haven't read that people using their dryers and ovens were causing crashes in the grid.

There are plenty of small cars out there that pass crash tests. I think you're throwing out a lot of poor arguments that don't stand up to research. 

Tue, 07/06/2010 - 19:07 | 455660 Anarchist
Anarchist's picture

I have yet to see the average American adult who will limit their mobility options. You think people will wait their turn to use the long range auto? The first time one gets stuck on the side of the interstate at night will be the last. The short range car will be traded in for a real car. 

Come to the southern states where A/C and pools running multiple pumps are the norm. Add a dryer, hot water heater, lights ..etc. All southern states have had a huge increase in the population without a commensuate increase in generating and transmission capacity. If everyone on a street plugged their car into the grid at night, the local transformer feeding the neighborhood would overheat. You would have to supply adaptive chargers for people to use. The chargers would not be controlled by the end user but by the electric company through the phone line or internet. The end result is that your car would be forced to charge at very low levels while other loads are hogging the grid. You can forget about 4 hours.

As far as crash tests, the only cheap solution is more metal. More metal = less range.

Again tell me who is going to pay for all this?

Tue, 07/06/2010 - 19:09 | 455673 ozziindaus
ozziindaus's picture

Even the experts have doubts about the viability of EV's in the US. 

Must see interview with Stephen R. Polk

http://www.autolinedetroit.tv/show/1423?play

Tue, 07/06/2010 - 23:37 | 456036 KevinB
KevinB's picture

The first time one gets stuck on the side of the interstate at night will be the last.

No one EVER runs out of gas, right?

Again, your argument that "everyone on a street plugged their car into the grid" is another specious argument. People hold their cars for an average of 8 years now. Even if everyone changed to electric - which I do not advocate - it would still take about 12 years to change everyone over. Electrics will catch on when the price of gas goes back up.

You would have to supply adaptive chargers

You don't think the manufacturers would figure this out, and supply a variety of chargers?

It takes a few minutes on the net to find hourly electricity demand statistics. In California, the peak load occurs from 4 to 6 pm, and the amount of electricity used falls by half at night. So your arguments that 1) there's no spare power at night, and 2) the grid can't handle it falls apart when you look at FACTS, instead of just your BS opinion. 

Also, I don't know many people who use their clothes dryer, their oven, or need to run their a/c full blast from midnight to 6 am.

And ordinary people will pay for it, when they compare the cost of gasoline to electricity in a few years. I look at my family; my wife and I drive a fair distance each day, so we might stay with gas cars, but our nanny just drives the kids to school, and goes grocery shopping. She could easily use an electric.

Tom Edison once said "There's a better way. Find it." That was the spirit that made America great. Now, it's dominated by know-nothing naysayers like you. No wonder the US is in trouble.

Tue, 07/06/2010 - 15:45 | 455143 GoldmanSux
GoldmanSux's picture

The ex-wife is selling

Tue, 07/06/2010 - 15:47 | 455151 Bam_Man
Bam_Man's picture

Suckuzzzzzzz

Tue, 07/06/2010 - 15:51 | 455163 MarketFox
MarketFox's picture

It's called the $40,000/$100,000 disease....

Needs to be $10,000 ?

Tue, 07/06/2010 - 15:51 | 455167 NumberNone
NumberNone's picture

Robot traders have no emotion.  Buying a stock so you can support a company that you hope has a shot at improving our future is so human.  All the robots see is an algo that says sell and sell hard. 

Tesla?  Tesla who? 

Tue, 07/06/2010 - 15:51 | 455170 Troublehoff
Troublehoff's picture

front-running anyone?

Tue, 07/06/2010 - 15:52 | 455173 cbaba
cbaba's picture

I can feel something fishy here. This company, Tesla tried to manufacture cars years ago but they couldn't succeed it when the market was good, and years later in this crisis they are back. Why ?. especially in this market even the best car brands are not making money, its not economical to start a new car business and make money, its just a dream.. but i feel that somebody already know that this will not work but pumping hopes,doing the PR and selling shares with IPO..

Good luck who buys a Tesla share, they are becoming a partner of an IPO scam.

 

Tue, 07/06/2010 - 15:53 | 455179 snarkolepsy
snarkolepsy's picture

I predicted here:

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/ford-tesla-and-solyndra-good-news-or-bunk

(At the end of the comments section)

It would be three bucks by the end of the year. Who would have guessed it might be three bucks before the end of the month!

Tue, 07/06/2010 - 16:00 | 455212 Phillycheesesteak
Phillycheesesteak's picture

Private Equity +1. Individual investor -10.

Tue, 07/06/2010 - 16:01 | 455213 TheGoodDoctor
TheGoodDoctor's picture

If it were Nikola Tesla going IPO then I would be buying as much as I could right now. Now that MFer was an innovator! :)

Tue, 07/06/2010 - 16:06 | 455220 jesusfreakinco
jesusfreakinco's picture

One word... Blackstone

Tue, 07/06/2010 - 16:06 | 455224 CorrelationTrader
CorrelationTrader's picture

ooops they forgot the green shoe on that issue! 

Tue, 07/06/2010 - 16:14 | 455248 Anarchist
Anarchist's picture

How much is going to end up paying for the divorce?

http://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-is-saved-2010-6

Tue, 07/06/2010 - 16:16 | 455252 HungrySeagull
HungrySeagull's picture

I am disappointed.

Did'nt someone say in a movie some years ago, "I can buy you six times over and break you in half on me knee...." Something about greed being good too.

Maybe Telsa is charging ahead of it's time. They would be better off waiting until the wars are fought and settled over the last bit of oil left in the earth before demand takes off.

Just maybe if they can stand to be trickling the money in like a slow charge overnight, they will eventually raise the funds in time. /sarcasm.

Tue, 07/06/2010 - 16:18 | 455263 omi
omi's picture

Don't forget ENER http://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=ener&ty=c&ta=0&p=w

I tried to bottom pick that sucker unsuccessfully several times.

Tue, 07/06/2010 - 16:23 | 455280 snarkolepsy
snarkolepsy's picture

"Maybe Telsa is charging ahead of it's time. They would be better off waiting until the wars are fought and settled over the last bit of oil left in the earth before demand takes off."

That is rediculous. All you need to know about why this technology is in this post.

http://snarkolepsy.blogspot.com/2009/04/living-off-companies-teet.html

The problem is infrastructure. And logic. California can't keep its lights on in good years, and they are going to stick all these cars charging - on the grid? How many years before they figure out these cars take electricity and will bring the grid to its knees? Telsa was forced to go IPO to get Toyota money. So they did. Otherwise Elan would have to admit he was bankrupt.

Tue, 07/06/2010 - 16:24 | 455283 thegreatsatan
thegreatsatan's picture

what, a car company that has no cars currently driving on the road isn't a stellar investment? Consider me puzzled.

Tue, 07/06/2010 - 16:27 | 455290 SilverIsKing
SilverIsKing's picture

Perhaps he waits for the stock to hit $3 and then he takes them private again.

Tue, 07/06/2010 - 16:34 | 455306 johngaltfla
johngaltfla's picture

Snicker. A dead car company run by a deadbeat.

Tue, 07/06/2010 - 16:34 | 455307 carbonmutant
carbonmutant's picture

Ummm... Tesla's got issues but that IPO is giving them a chance to buy part of the defunct NUMMI auto manufacturing plant in Fremont and build cars there with Toyota. Which means they can produce volume... which means that the prices will drop.

 Tesla to buy NUMMI plant, build cars with Toyota - San Francisco Business Times
Tue, 07/06/2010 - 16:45 | 455335 Mark Beck
Mark Beck's picture

Tesla issued stock to fund capital expenditures. If the IPO provided the needed cash, then it was a success. 

The real danger to IPOs are ones where you are tied to an existing price, and the IPO must meet a price level well above expectation.

The IPO I speak of;

General Motors

This is a very different IPO in achieving a high enough price to repay the tax payer. For if the tax payer takes a huge hair cut, the tax payer will boycott GM products.

Mark Beck

Tue, 07/06/2010 - 20:18 | 455779 Anarchist
Anarchist's picture

I guess you forgot the biggest bailout....... GMAC. How soon they forget. I guess rebranding as Ally Bank makes all the losses dissapear.

The taxpayers is going to lose billions on bad aircraft, commercial and private real estate, cars, commercial trucks and all kinds of assets that businesses bought over the last 20 years.

Tell me how the boycott is going...yawn...

Tue, 07/06/2010 - 16:58 | 455383 seventree
seventree's picture

Marketing premium-priced high-tech ego-boosting toys during an economic freefall? Who do they think they are -- Apple?

Tue, 07/06/2010 - 20:20 | 455782 Anarchist
Anarchist's picture

Any chump can put their new iPhone 4 on their VISA but only the priviledged few can charge their Tesla Roadster to their American Express.

Tue, 07/06/2010 - 16:59 | 455388 ZeroPower
ZeroPower's picture

Well, at least the upcoming LBO wont need much 'L'

Tue, 07/06/2010 - 17:02 | 455390 Djirk
Djirk's picture

Yo Silicon Valley....it's not 1999 anymore. CASH FLOW

Tue, 07/06/2010 - 17:03 | 455396 snarkolepsy
snarkolepsy's picture

"Tesla's got issues but that IPO is giving them a chance to buy part of the defunct NUMMI auto manufacturing plant in Fremont and build cars there with Toyota."

Well... that doesn't exactly seem to be the case. They aren't as much "building cars together" - they are collaborating on the cars. An important disction. "As part of the deal with Tesla, Toyota intends to buy $50 million worth of stock in the automaker when it goes public." http://www.insidebayarea.com/argus/localnews/ci_15174277

http://earth2tech.com/2010/05/21/tesla-ipo-what-the-toyota-nummi-deal-co...

 

Fri, 07/09/2010 - 17:41 | 455518 velobabe
velobabe's picture

Tue, 07/06/2010 - 17:45 | 455519 CustomersMan
CustomersMan's picture

 

 

Most investors don't know that they have the ability to rescind their trade(in this case the purchase of Tesla) anytime within 30 days of the IPO debut. One of the rules is that you have the right to review the final offering document, which usually doesn't show up until the 30 days is over (no coincidence).

 

So that is why they will defend the $17 IPO price, otherwise they could have a huge reneg problem. On the other hand they know most customers don't know the rules and can be bullshitttted.

 

Brokers commissions are usually recinded if a client sells during this period. Therefore the broker will most likely convince the client to hold on for the 30 days.

 

Institutions are not restricted in the same way, they can sell immediately if they chose.

 

So its the retail customers that are most likely the only ones around at the end of 30 days.

 

A short letter with the correct wording will do the trick in getting your money back if received by the firm, if you have not had the chance to review the final prospectus.

Tue, 07/06/2010 - 17:56 | 455545 lucasjackson
lucasjackson's picture

No thanks.  I will just stick to riding my Segway to the Star Trek Convention!  I had to buy a taser and mace because the middle school I pass has some pretty rough 6th graders that got all crazy with me last year.  Why can't they just make poor people drive electric cars??

Tue, 07/06/2010 - 22:49 | 455987 Diogenes
Diogenes's picture

Funny you should mention that. They are already riding electric scooters.

A friend in the property management business told me his latest headache is tenants buying electric scooters and plugging them in to the landlord's socket, running up the electric bill.

Tue, 07/06/2010 - 19:09 | 455672 juwes
juwes's picture

Stocks are strange things.  I could justify the premium in TSLA by saying investors have confidence in the genius CEO founder.

Better yet, you can justify buying it here if you think the next idiot is willing to pay $30 six months from now.

 

Has anyone considered the mapping of cellular batteries into an engine could be sold to other industries?  Technologies that are unique and revolutionary tend to be resold and repackaged.

A year from now I think TSLA will be higher than its closing price today.  Thanks to the overwhelming pessimism on this company's chances to survive, I'm thinking side bets against me pay 1:3.

Tue, 07/06/2010 - 20:36 | 455810 Anarchist
Anarchist's picture

Genius? Maybe. Many people have become rich on one good idea. The tough part is thinking up multiple good ideas over a long time period. Very few have done that. Elon Musk falls into the same pot as Mark Cuban, Steve Wozniak or Paul Allen. All of them are still trying to hit the next home run to prove their business savvy. All have burned through boatloads of cash funding different businesses. Lightning has not hit twice yet. Elon Musk is going through all his and his partners cash funding very high risk businesses, electric cars and low cost satellite boosters. I am not sure I would call that Genius considering the low probability of success.

Tue, 07/06/2010 - 19:15 | 455680 snarkolepsy
snarkolepsy's picture

"I haven't read that people using their dryers and ovens were causing crashes in the grid."

Um... because people are still going to use their dryers and ovens while they are charging the car. Today, NY is straining the grid.

Additionally - I own a Pontiac Solstice. The Tesla is smaller. I see them all the time. You can not fit shit in the Solstice. If you have a passenger you can barely get a bag of groceries in the "trunk". If not.. yippe - you can get two bags of groceries.

You will need two cars.

Tue, 07/06/2010 - 21:41 | 455905 HungrySeagull
HungrySeagull's picture

If the Grid quits due to demand, we can generate our own power for a while until the thing comes back up.

Here where we are, there is a new plant coming online soon and good old nuclear power is steaming away feeding good juice.

Now I would imagine the "Peakers" back home must be howling at full throttle trying to meet the demand. 100 degrees there is like painful. Here we already had it for months.

 

As far as two cars, it aint happening. I saw a SMART car the other day it could fit into the back of my pickup truck's bed. In fact I might just buy one and toss it back there with ramps ready to go at any time.

Tue, 07/06/2010 - 19:28 | 455702 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

WOW nice faceplant! They ought to put that chart alongside the getting hit in the nuts videos on Americas Funniest Home Videos.

Wed, 07/07/2010 - 00:15 | 456056 Privatus
Privatus's picture

TSLA is a crapshoot, but it's not a bet-the-house gamble. And equity is a loan that never needs to be repaid. In the context of his other accomplishments, I somehow doubt that Elon Musk derives his self-esteem from the machinations of the pixeldust fairies running (and ruining) the equity markets.

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